Lurker > Sheep007

Baiting a scum scan, obviously? I wouldn't need fuckin coachin on something that basic, thank you very much

UltimaterializerX posted...

What was your logic there? Baiting a shot?

I thought a scan was more likely if I could get away without claiming. Shot or block would have been nice, though

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Sheep also said he wasn't vanilla, then later said he was.

Sketchy. As vanilla, I'd rather breadcrumb a fake power than just say I am one.

I did not say I wasn't Vanilla. I very, very specifically did not say I wasn't vanilla. FD put that I wasn't in his list because I was so heavily breadcrumbing it (since I thought Ctes was investigation at the time)

UltimaterializerX posted...

This is not an endgame town thought process.

Yeah its ctes/Sheep. I checked ctes against my game and good hell the bussing there was something else. Im also reminded of the game where I killed Lea like an idiot instead of Sheep about a year ago.

Hey, if I'm Scum I just... generally do not get lynched, unless it's by Chris. That game I very deliberately stayed under the radar after D1 and didn't even go out of my way to guarantee the lynch on Town Han. I'm not gonna be out here getting egg on my face by doublevoting town Wallz as scum.

Also, the EV for scumUlti to claim he was blocked is pretty clearly to feel out whether people think Death could be Scum. That's literally what you did. I don't think it's something that's scummy in itself but we're at the point of the game where just saying things for wifom or reaction purposes is particularly valid, as any alignment. Why do you think I brought up that theoretical survivor role if not to plant a tiny seed of doubt (and also make a slightly facetious joke about third party paranoia but still).

Also also, I can't exactly make claims about what I "would do" as Town given this is as long as I've ever lived as Town on B8, but making PoE lists is basically my whole game and I have been at that point practically since I replaced in, with practically the same list. It's just what happens when you heavily townread players in a lategame, when you're already confident in your ability to read them and have pretty compelling role-based evidence for them. Red was at the same stage yesterday, and I have been practically identical in terms of reads and what I want to do going forwards as he has been.

I think the only reason to be particularly nervous about Ctes not getting hammered is if you think I'm scum. 4 player scumteam is already crazy low, 3 players would be nuts. I'm just hoping Ctes isn't the roleblocker so Scum are incentivised to kill me tonight

Also, I think it would be very, very cruel if Scum were on a four man team and ScumDeath was forced to give items, especially considering he gave them to players they weren't killing anytime soon. Like, without it bestowing an extra kill or something stronger for giving them out, that'd be borderline sadistic

htaeD posted...

BCT: Vanilla/Weird Indy Role that is definitely not what he claimed
Ctes: Definitely Scum
Death: Town/Weird Indy Role that's basically what he claimed
Ulti: Probably Scum

is where I am right now.

I wasn't exactly doubtful of you before, but I think the Ninja being pointless is a pretty hard sell

Hey, if I were that made up role, I'd also necessarily need to lynch Scum today or I'd lose. I'm just saying it because there's so many possibilities for third parties which we have literally zero knowledge about, and also because I think it'd be very, very funny if Scum shot me tonight because they thought I was telling the truth

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Remember the wording of Red's role: "Anti-town." This implies there's more than one non-town faction.

Meh. Wallz' protection lasts into the day phase too. Doesn't mean there's a dayvig (or else we likely woulda seen it at this point.

It might mean something, but it's partially a matter of good role PM writing, so all bases are covered and players don't need to ask clarifying questions.

htaeD posted...

I suppose.
Maybe Ulti, if he is town, could be told because he still has a power?
I dont recall if BP status is roleblockable tho.

Ulti said he had to use it as a shot, if I recall. Should be blockable if so, that's pretty consistent with shot-based abilities

Hey Ulti, theoretical question for you here.

If I claimed I was a survivor who wins with Town by default, but wins with Scum and doesn't die if they shoot me, would you believe that? And who would be the second scum with Ctes in that scenario?

UltimaterializerX posted...

.youre confirmed town.

Are we reading the same game here?

I think reading the game indicates that everyone else disagrees that I'm confirmed town...

I think it's more practical for him to just press me, honestly. BCT probably won't take much convincing.

I feel like if anyone is trying to be buttery, it's Ulti.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Yes he f***ing would have. He got it from Death.

Plus I couldn't actually use it for hammering given the setup, and I would know that if Scum.

Like, Death is the only day role. Scum has to get some huge benefit from giving out those items else it's just self-sabotage. Why would there also be a scum dayblocker that's not been seen up to this point?

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Death. Explain that to me again.

This was me confirming to Death that I couldn't use the doublevote without outright stating it for the rest of the game.

UltimaterializerX posted...

We know ctes is scum. Thats a given. What Im trying to figure out is Andy vs Death and whether or not a third party exists, because if it does town cant win and Im cool with just giving up until the next game because lol modkills who cares.

What scenarios do you think BCT can be Scum in? I'm kinda struggling to see any possibilities right now, but there being a roleblocker that can specifically prevent Death's actions surely makes more sense if Death is Town (or at least not Scum, no?)

Yeah, Ctes or myself mathematically has to be Scum at this point, BCT (or else a hammer would have happened. Or there's only three scum, in which case I will sob openly if we lose that). Death/Ulti would have hammered.

Well, I'm very glad I already ruled out a Death/Ulti scumteam because that would absolutely fill me with paranoia. That's a helluva claim, Ulti. I don't think Scum Ulti needs to go for this, but I also am concerned that Scum Ulti might be wanting to go for the hero play. I'm confident he would win with my lynch tomorrow, though, if he kills Death tonight and we get Ctes today.

Gonna be honest, Ulti, I really don't trust you as things stand. Who's hammering Ctes before BCT shows anyway, if you don't wanna?

I don't see a reason to unvote tbh. A Death/BCT scumteam seems pretty silly.

I think Scum giving themselves a doublevote in this economy is pretty viable tbh. Maybe with some rules around not using it at LYLO or something.

htaeD posted...

Well Sheep can rule out a me/Ulti team now
Lol

I'm gonna give it a few more minutes to stew because I did the ol' bait and switch earlier but yea, I'm happy to rule that out, it was a possibility in my conspiracy brain.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Playing with a bunch of people from weird time zones is certainly an experience.

The three of us are all town, arent we <_<

I find it very fun that there's three Europeans still alive so late. Whenever I've been in endgames in the past, I'm usually speaking to myself for a good portion of it.

Also, fun fact: I thought yesterday was the first time I had ever actually voted as Town in LYLO on B8. Turns out it's actually today.

htaeD posted...

Oh right that nonsense
Its such a useless role it almost loops back around to credible.

Did Ctes even try to bait scum?

Not particularly. Although I think that was just how he played this game regardless of alignment.

##Vote: Ctes

This one can stay here

Ctes claimed Singer, so if Scum kills him, a Town role is revealed to them.

I hate that a four player scumteam makes Ctes role seem more plausible. Although he would have known that we'd learn that eventually when he claimed it, so I'm hesitant to say that's a town point for him.

I'm inclined to believe there's indeed no more coupons regardless of alignment. If Death's Scum or indy then there's gotta be incentive for giving them out and he wouldn't just stop, while if he's Town, obviously he would have given some more.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I also want everyone to re-claim with their flavor. Thanks.

Vanillish, Vanilla

And I did try and use the doublevote D4 as proof I was blocked! Although Isquen himself confirmed he blocked me so I suppose that was unecessary. As you said, confirms that I couldn't be roleblocker unless I'm like, motion detector unblockable roleblocker. Which sounds sick and not entirely implausible in this game.

Did you not trust Red by the end of D3? He said he had no more shots, I thought he would have been a prime target to give a doublevote to.

I would just assume anyone claiming third party is trying to invoke "oh but now we can't lynch the third party!"

I also did try and use it night 3, but it was blocked.

I think my only issue, Death, is the fact that you only gave it to players who weren't looking incredibly towny. Why exactly did you pick each of those?

Just to clarify, I would be utterly shocked if this was scumDeath. Either I've gotten very bad at reading him or he's upped his scumgame along with getting a very strange role. Third party I can buy, but that also doesn't entirely sit right. BCT might be the more likely.

What would y'all have thought if I'd said I was third party? Because frankly, in your positions, I'd have killed me immediately. Then again, I probably would have done that at the start of the day regardless of alignment, so clearly I have some issues with restraint going on.

UltimaterializerX posted...

This game makes absolutely zero sense, none, without a third party. Someone is lying and at this point every option is on the table.

Are you inclined to think it's Death at this stage, then?

I want to talk to Ulti about something first tbh but I am happy with Ctes as Scum here in all possibilities.

##Unvote

psych

ctesjbuvf posted...

I thought you told Wallz you would kill me with haste if he flipped town? That was one of the posts that sat very wrong with me because reconsidering should be the natural thing to do if you're that wrong yet it sounded like you wanted to make a plan for that case too. Reads very manipulative to me.

Frankly, it didn't even cross my mind that four scum was a possibility, I thought that was insanely unbalanced with what we've seen so far this game (still kinda think it is - Town getting two power roles modkilled, having both investigators die instantly, only hitting one scum across four days and still being alive is crazy). That was part me being insufferable and part me being certain that you're Scum regardless.

##Vote: Ctes

I've considered it and I don't think there being one less Scum than I thought actually changes the gamestate. I fucked up with the Wallz lynch, but with Red having flipped as Town rather than what I expected after D5 (third party) I think it's unlikely I went wrong anywhere beyond the reasonable assumption that Scum wouldn't have insanely low numbers. I'm sticking with my reads - I'm sorry to Wallz and feel a lil silly for not even considering the possibility of there being four scum, but at the end of the day a weird setup doesn't change my outlook on either Death or BCT here. If I've got a blindspot and either is a third party then I'd rather they win than Scum, after all.

I think making many assumptions about scum roles at this stage is brave considering the wack numbers they've got. I imagine there's gonna be some busted roles out there.

I'm pleasantly surprised I didn't get murdered on the spot when day went up.

I am not third party, I'm just Vanilla. It's surely got to be four scum and a third party at this point, but I don't have a bloody clue who the third party is. Feels like both Death and BCT are Town (Death because of the ability granting, and BCT because of also being Vanilla and the roleblock, I probably lean Death as the third party, with some obtuse wincon).

It's crazy to me that there's only four scum in this game, though, especially considering Town isn't exactly weak (two vanillas, anyone?). Entering Wifom territory here, but I sure as hell wouldn't have done the whole song and dance about Wallz yesterday if I was Scum - he was probably dying anyway and I think I was in a better position to win it than basically anyone. Dominating an entire day with my wrongness is a very silly move. I am still on Ctes/Ulti as the scumteam, but after being very wrong yesterday I need to think more before making assertions.

Honestly, with natural starter bias (that I don't have for this gen only because I beat it exclusively with mons I got from wonder trade) taken into account the top 20 is about as good as it could get. It's missing Wooloo, Rookidee and a few things I like but everyone hates, like Eiscue and Stonjourner, but I couldn't expect for too much better.

What the FUCK happened to Wooloo and why is Flapple of all things still in. Be better, B8.

Now this is a trashmon (but still less boring-looking than Zacian)

Garbodor is solid and Trubbish is an A-tier mon >:(

@Crescent-Moon
@Meow1000

Can we get votals?

Yeah, saying that Scum mighta blocked me was bold and not a particularly well thought-out statement. No reason for them to have done so there, I just got excited that my softing power the previous day might have worked. I don't think there was any manipulation of roleblocking stuff going on D4, Wallz just claimed blocked rather than blocking anyone because there were no good blocking targets.

Also, BCT, Wall is literally confirmed scum at this point unless scum are trolling or there's 4 scum in a 18 player game which is offensively low. I don't think you should take anything he says at face value.

By "the order", I mean that Ctes should be killed tomorrow almost instantly. Don't think there's any uncertainty there, and I am all but certain Ulti is the final one. Y'all got this.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

I know this sounds weird but it just sounded like people do lol

Nah, I'm just kinda expecting to die tonight and want the order to be clear. I also wanna reiterate just how confident I am in both Death and Red being Town. Just bear that in mind.

Also, this does hardconfirm Wallz as Scum beyond the joke option of four scum, since no hammer has come down. Anyone should feel free to hammer as a result.