Lurker > Sheep007

I'm vanilla. Everyone else who has yet to claim should, today.

I had Death and SBell down as a scum pairing, but some of SBell's stranger actions are partially explained by his claim. I'd still like to know why SBell wasn't more dubious of Plum or even Ben's claim, though, given his claim, I get not wanting to be outed as power? But in such a small game, the presence of a claimed hider, a claimed flavour cop, a flipped lie detector, and a claimed backup lie detector eliciting little response from a claimed tracker makes me a little wary.

I also think that, if SBell is Town, Scum has to be a team of five. Tidus and Death are pretty clear Scum imo, and I thought SBell would be the fifth if there was one, but with so many powerful town flips and claims, I'll be shocked if it's only a team of four. The remaining scum is probably in BCT and Kirby, and I will personally kneecap anyone who suggests Lea as an option. I was genuinely considering an SBell/Death gambit for a second given Death claims to be ill and may be lacking gusto, and if the remaining scumteam was SBell/Death/Tidus, they're screwed without a massive play. I think Death is too cautious to try something that fun, but props if he did, y'all have me fooled and I shall tip my nonexistent hat in postgame.

This does mean that we need to consider players who're out of the PoE a little more. I don't want to finish today until Kirby and BCT claim, and I agree that the massclaim is sensible. I'd also like Tidus to claim, but that's more from a "I want to kill him and I would like to give him the chance to claim on principle" angle. I don't think any claim alone would change my wanting to murder him and I'm tempted to lynch him today, because if we kill the RB SBell is guaranteed to get another scan off and we basically just win by PoE bar some insane gambit, but going with the basically confirmed scum is probably the safe bet.

Kirby321 posted...

I'll be honest, I was half-asleep when I made that post lol

But I stand by what I said (now more than ever!). Simply, Ben did not have an explanation for the N2 no kill, but Red did. Plus, I've learned my lesson about lynching claimed power. Combined with the fact that Red was the only reasonable explanation for the no kill, and that makes me hesitate to lynch him. Plus that sort of claim is going to be resolved eventually, because no way Scum lets a claim like that live for long. Not to mention any other explanation for the N2 no kill relies on scum deliberately avoiding the claimed scanner in the form of IGCD.

Red reminding us of that was really the tipping point in this argument. The full claim just solidified my changed stance on not lynching him today.

Sure, I agree with most of this. None of it explains why you went for Red in the first place, imo.

Let me put it this way: I found it weird that it took Red restating stuff for you to come to this realisation. The information was almost all present beforehand. I don't even know if it's a scumtell or not, because I feel like Scum wouldn't jump on what Ben said so boldly, but something about your responses twinged my gut.

Kirby321 posted...

You know, I feel like I recall having a conversation with Ben a looong time ago, where he told me that he'd want to try fakeclaiming Lie Detector as Mafia eventually.

Might just be a false memory, and I won't pretend that it's reason to suspect Ben. Just thought I'd voice it on the funny chance that this happened to be the game where that came true.

Anyway, with Red's recent claim, no sense lynching him now. Mafia is very likely to kill him tonight, and if he lives, then either the Mafia is foolish to let live the doctor who already stopped one kill or Red is scum.
... Or they (conveniently) keep him roleblocked. Well, hmm... that's an issue. Ehhh maybe this isn't such a smart idea.

In any case, I was thinking the lynch needed to be between Ben and Red, but perhaps they're both telling the truth. Tidus is back on the chopping block for now.

I've had a fairly strong Town read on you this game, Kirby, but your responses to the backup claims have made me a lil paranoid.

You made it very clear in post 77 that it was going to take, and I quote, "a very good explanation for Red to weasel out of this one". Point is, I don't think Red has said a thing that would convince someone who didn't believe him originally that he's Town. Lynching a fulltime doctor claim is usually stupid (do not ask me about the FE Awakening game I beg of you) and I understand coming to the conclusion you don't want to kill him as a result. That said, I don't think that this post:
red13n posted...

Honestly I thought he was being dumb and even if he wasn't there would be better use of lie detector than using it on me so I ignored the request.

is enough to convince anyone enough to go from "Red is gonna need an amazing explanation for why he didn't respond to Ben" to "oh perhaps they're both telling the truth". I'd love for you to tell me what exactly Red said to make you flip between the two. Or do you still think he's probably scum, and just aren't interested in trying to resolve it today?

Ben's messages were aimed at DYL, so before Red's claim.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I mean Plum was pretty obviously scum pushing the lynch in retrospect.

I think this is a bit of a strange statement. Go back to EoD, Ulti. Plum said nothing about lynching or even suspecting Han, and saying he was pushing or manipulating the lynch isn't quite right given he did nothing but put down the final vote.

I appreciate what Ben is doing and everyone should be under some level of pressure at this stage in the game but lumping Ulti with Death and Tidus here is absurd lmao

UltimaterializerX posted...

Flavor traps are not a path to go down, and you need to do way better than conspiracy theories if you want to kill me.

Tidus, stop acting defeatist and just claim.

I think you're Town. I don't think what Ben pointed out is a conspiracy theory.

I can see one fine explanation for what happened and I'm sure there's more, but I'd like to hear your own reasoning.

TidusOfTheX posted...

Well, that it sucks for me that Plum is scum. It was actually part of my strategy to be quiet(and act dumb) so i don't attract attention from scum shots. I wanted to have a cleared player going into mylo/lylo. It seems I'm getting lynched today though.

Don't treat this shit like you're already dead. What's stopping you from looking for answers and trying to figure out the game? Maybe you were wrong on Plum, but that doesn't mean you're a bad player or can't figure stuff out. You said that being dumb was an act, and I think that's probably the truth regardless of your alignment.

Here's a little request if you're Town: stop acting dumb and start hunting scum, and don't throw games because your plans didn't work out. I have seen you play so much better before, I've seen you earnestly trying to figure out games. I don't think this is the same Tidus. Prove me wrong.

##Vote: Tidus

We've had two non-presences flipping Scum in a row. I like our odds on a third.

Spy x Family S1 finished. The first half was phenomenal. The concept is great and well executed to start, the main three were all adorable (although I did and do want to see way more Yor), the pacing was fast but not breakneck, and it's utterly hilarious in places. It reminded me a lot of Hinamatsuri, albeit with lesser emotional beats, and I don't know if that's intentional or not but anything that warrants comparison to it is worth a watch. I think the second half is entertaining but fails to develop on the premise very well: I think it's kinda telling that the show dropped in quality the second the status quo for the future was set in place. I also feel like Anya is focused on a bit too much for me to get as invested as I might otherwise, but she's still adorable and the comedic timing is top notch. I think the brother shit single-handedly brought it down from an 8/10 to a 7/10. You'd hope that anime would be able to have stories without a designated incest character in the year 2022, but I suppose that's too much to ask. All that said, it's still an excellent and very charming show that's worth a watch for anyone, and I'm looking forward to S2.

At least for me. I have woken up tired and grumpy and also at 10pm and holy shit how has this dude survived this close to deadline

does anyone have a doublevote or a dayvig they'd be kinda enough to give me, to speed this along?

Plum has succeeded in draining every bit of life from the game, which seems to have been his only objective today. Well done! Masterfully played, truly.

What do you reckon the explanation for the lack of kill last night is, if not Red's save, BCT?

htaeD posted...

Honestly just from a couple of pages I feel like Tidus was a lot sharper in that game. He even put a vote down that guy. He also admitted when he didnt have much to say and wanted to improve.

Agreed, but I also think he was impotent in Kingmaker Mafia, when he rolled Cop and got himself killed D2 because it contradicted his earlier statements. I don't know if this is the natural reaction to being slaughtered two games in a row, but I'm struggling to figure out anything from what he does have. It's a shame, because although he wasn't Town MVP or anything in FE:A, he was fun to have in the game and genuinely tried, which is all anyone can ask of a new player. This is just kinda sad.

Man, I know it's a Friday night but I was expecting something from Plum.

I'm gonna be on mobile and would rather not make the trek to The Site right now, but can anyone remember if Tidus was acting as oblivious in Fire Emblem Awakening Mafia? I always suck at figuring out when dumbtelling is being faked, but I wanna check what Tidus acted like in earlier games in comparison.

TidusOfTheX posted...

Probably Ben. It's not plum since I know for a fact that he's not lying about me being town.

Two (actually, three) things.

Ben being Scum probably requires IGCD to be Scum as well. Do you think that is the case? Have you actually been reading the game? And who else do you think is Scum? There's probably four of them and I would appreciate it if you had more than one poorly thought out suspect.

Scum are, believe it or not, capable of lying!

I hate that this post is dumbtelling so hard it's making me think Tidus is Town

TidusOfTheX posted...

I don't want to mislead town with how new I am with mafia and how I'm confirmed town

Okay, let's step back from the misleading Town thing for a second. There's a lot of strong players here, and they will call you out if you have an abysmal read.

Who is Scum, Tidus?

I do not like the idea of lynching the four people in the "unconnected" part of Red's list.

Let's put this simply: does anyone genuinely believe it's more likely that either myself or Kirby is Scum than Plum is? Or hell, more likely Scum than Tidus? Cause if I had to choose right now, I'd put odds on Tidus being Scum over Kirby.

Also, I'm pretty sure Plum being Town hard requires Lea to be scum, unless we're going down an IGCD/Red conspiracy rabbit hole. Since I very much hope everyone sensible has long ruled that out... we should do the thing I have spent most of the game saying we should do.

##Vote: Plum

I decided to do my postgrad application stupidly late (as in the week of the deadline and also with no housing lined up after my lease expires) and am paying the price. My hours will be wack for today but hopefully I'll be around for EoD.

Plum is still not dead and I would like to reiterate that having a flesh-hungry corpse stumbling around our town is prohibitive to our long-term survival.

If he is Town he is roleblocked until he gets lynched. He has not been roleblocked. That has allowed the game to reach a state where it is "solved" if he is Town. Scum does not let that happen, it's that simple. Again, there's been zero effort to work the game out from him beyond his night actions, zero things to indicate he is Town, yadda yadda, so help me God (not you, although I would appreciate the aid). It sounds like people I trust are coming around to him being Town while people I do not trust also say he is Town and this actively offends me given how dogshit and anti-town Plum is playing. Did anyone watch him play last game? Or in Psych Mafia? Anyone at all? If he is a scanner he practically has the game sorted single-handedly and is thriving thinking about the number of scum he is about to put down.

Anyway, all that to say I do not understand where Ulti is coming from with the perspective slip clear and I would love to know how he came to that conclusion based on the words that were said.

Death, SBell and Tidus are probably all scum too. I went into the night assuming Red was Scum, and I normally want to murder backup claims on principle, but there is too much proactivity and hype, and not enough sneak and slime for this to be Scum Red, at least based on what I remember of him. I believe Red has unwittingly swapped our personalities today and I shall fulfill his niche of grumpy old man growling at pigeons for the time being. Unless someone else comes forward with another explanation for the lack of kill I buy it.

I would like claims from at least Death and SBell today. Tidus can wait until we kill Plum because there is no reason to ever lynch him first.

Also I was gonna vote Death at the end of this post and I refreshed, saw three Death votes, and panicked thinking I might have fat fingered and hammered him when I did so. Thanks for the minor heart attack, Kirby.

Kirby321 posted...

I don't think there are many people who would be against lynching Plum today. Letting him "confirm" another dude could be helpful, but I won't be opposed to making some caramelized plums if we've got no better leads.

I think everyone is just focused on exploring other options as a back-up to avoid the same mistake happening again of: being set on lynching somebody, suddenly something happens, everyone changes their mind, and now no one knows who to vote for and it's the end of the day.

I agree that backups should be explored, but I'm more just hesitant to let Plum drop entirely when few people seem all that interested in him right now and he's my biggest scumread by quite a way. A fair number of other players feel off, but I will be utterly shocked if Plum doesn't flip scum, compared to just leaning scum or being unsure on others.

My current list of alternatives today is SBell, Death, BCT, Red, and DYL. I feel good about pretty much everyone else, or there's some very compelling reason to not lynch them.

I'd like to hear which of these players everyone would be most interested in going after today, because I absolutely do not think we should be lynching anyone outside of that five and Plum right now.

Part of me wants to say that's a nothing post from MZero, but I can't really see a reason for Scum killing MZero other than having a power read on him, no matter how good he looked D1.

I am absurdly tired today holy shit

Tidus, where are you currently at on the reads front? Has your list progressed from having half of the game as neutral, and where should we be looking for scum today?

I have never felt bad about Lea this game but every post of hers today has felt somewhere between solid and throwing a cake at my face with TOWN written on it in big fluorescent icing and I will be shocked if my gut is wrong here.

htaeD posted...

Sbell was pretty low energy in Kingmaker Mafia I think.
Did he do the hounding Ulti bit before or after he got confirmed by scans back then?

SBell didn't feel low energy in Kingmaker, at least to me. He spent the first two days just snapping at Han after he got tunneled, and although his energy was used pretty poorly it wasn't as absent as this game.

Also, almost every single one of Plum's posts today have been complete and utter nothing. Am I genuinely the only person who still cares about all the shite from yesterday or are we just letting him coast by forever cause he claimed a scanner? There has been one post which vaguely resembles trying to work the game out and it ended in a weird Kirby vote which my little livestock brain cannot comprehend the reasoning behind.

Leafeon13N posted...

The hell. Tidus doesn't get touched unless plum is scum and then this is a bunch of i dont even know.

Also tidus is town if plum is town. This is a very weird and convoluted way of saying you think tidus is town in all circumstances.

"Tidus is Town if Plum is Town and we do not touch him unless Plum is Scum" felt pointless to even say given the claim, although I also haven't felt particularly bad about him either beyond being irritated at times. I literally outlined the sole possibility in which I think Tidus is not Town, so no, I do not think he is town in all circumstances, just most.

Obellisk posted...

Why does it feel like Red has more to say than in previous games? well those other games he was town.

I still don't like Red this game but this is an awful take, SBell. Please read D1. Or several other recent D1s.

I am glad Death at least still wants to murder obvscum Plum! Even if I am disappointed he didn't do a far better job of it yesterday.

I think the hider scan probably means Tidus is Town if Plum is Scum? I'll rethink that if Red turns out to be Scum, though, because of the way votes panned out at the end of the day, but Red should always be lynched before Tidus unless the latter makes a Tidusslip.

htaeD posted...

I am also wary of Ben since he mentioned wanting to jump off Plum to also vote Han. He just didnt because he was being voted for as well at the time.

This is a very odd statement to me. You're wary of Ben, because he mentioned... thinking something he didn't do? Why specifically Ben here and not, say, me, given I voiced similar thoughts? What do you think scum Ben gains from mentioning this?

PunishedBen posted...

So here's the thing, I think Kirby is town. Or at least had the purest intentions at the end of day 1 of anyone voting for Han.

The order of events was -

Kirby tried to save me and voted for Red

He then later voted for Plum after I switched to Plum, again to make to Plum the majority over me. Good look for Kirby

Kirby votes Han. Again, to save me.

All three votes were consistent with protecting a townie from lynch. He didnt just vote Han but was also content to kill Red or Plum once me or Sheep moved to one of them. So he does not look like he was trying to protect a specific scum member. Isolate his posts at the end of day and it tracks. Also I liked Post #151 of Kirby's. Sounds genuine

Really think Kirby was the most town of the people on Han's lynch

I am incredibly sleep deprived and Ben just made my long post better than I did. I am just gonna sleep so I can functionally play the game tomorrow.

Kirby321 posted...

Sheep, why did you unvote Plum just to vote for him again?

Honestly? I panicked and wanted to be able to change my vote to save Ben, and was considering trying to be a hero by joining Ulti on Han. Then the tiny little rational nugget of my brain reminded me that Plum was still probably scum and Han wouldn't get lynched D1 anyway so I should just stick with Plum and hope everyone went back on him.

I genuinely like the Kirby explanation. I noticed when I was rereading that he felt very panicky during the EoD, and I think it's very close to my own thought process. I'm very glad that he mentioned he was very jumpy about the Ben lynch, because I don't see any other good explanation which doesn't involve a ton of EoD nervousness. Some of it tripped me up a bit because Kirby has seemed remarkably calm at times in the two games I've watched him in, even in an F3 scenario, but I'm not sure if it feels different this time because I'm actually in the situation to empathise with how nuts it is rather than stuck on the sidelines.

Also, I would rather not meta late posts. I have been burned by that before, and it feels kinda gross to point to stuff that is actively against the rules of the game to prove a point.

Also also, I'm sorry but Han voting Ben was horrid at the time. The dude was so much more town-seeming than Han and I was very much willing to jump ship onto him if it meant keeping Ben alive.