I'll be using a generic magazine I picked up last year, apparently the product of "Pro Football Weekly" and Yahoo Sports. I'll be checking a few things, namely the Top Players at each position, looking at predicted versus what actually happened, as well as the top overrated and underrated players at each position.
Well, each meaningful position that is (QB, RB, WR, TE).
You gotta go back and look at what happened in order to improve for next year!
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
So, we'll start by looking at the Top 10 QBs as predicted last year. The number in parenthesis will represent where the player finished in the actual rankings.
1. Aaron Rodgers (2) 2. Drew Brees (6) 3. Peyton Manning (4) 4. Matt Schaub (9) 5. Philip Rivers (5) 6. Tony Romo (29) 7. Tom Brady (3) 8. Brett Favre (31) 9. Eli Manning (10) 10. Joe Flacco (11)
And now, for the Actual Top 10, with the parenthesis representing the pre-season prediction.
1. Michael Vick (33) 2. Aaron Rodgers (1) 3. Tom Brady (7) 4. Peyton Manning (3) 5. Philip Rivers (5) 6. Drew Brees (2) 7. Josh Freeman (27) 8. Matt Ryan (14) 9. Matt Schaub (4) 10. Eli Manning (9)
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Favre - Predicted at 8, finished at 31. This one should have been easy to see coming. His 2009 season was in fact the exception for someone so old and injury-ridden on a team with no WRs, not the norm. He was going nowhere even before his serious injuries in 2010.
Romo - Predicted at 6, finished at 29. This one was largely due to injury, although he (and the Cowboys as a team) wasn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard even prior to the injury. They seemed to not be any worse without him.
Kolb - Predicted at 12, finished at 36. I won't lie and claim I saw Vick coming, but I was intelligent enough to avoid the Eagles entirely in anticipation of something like this. LOL @ all the ESPN guys who claimed he was Top 10. I think I saw someone, can't remember who, rank him as high as 5.
Stafford - Predicted at 18, finished at 40. Another one largely due to injuries, partially due to LOLions. Yeah, he shows promise, but 18 was too high, even if he stays healthy.
Underrated:
Vick - Predicted at 33, finished at 1. Somewhat understandable to see how this happens, but it's not like we didn't know he was capable of this, and it's not like he was backing up a proven veteran or any such thing. Shouldn't have been ranked so low.
Freeman - Predicted at 27, finished at 7. This one was truly out of nowhere. Had never done much before, Bucs were looking dead in the water. On this, you just kind of shrug your shoulders and move on.
Fitzpatrick - Predicted at 43, finished at 19. So yeah, the Bills were a mess and he was competing with Trent Edwards. Hard to fault anyone for this too, but I think some people may be surprised at how high he did end up finishing, especially when you consider he didn't play in the first two games. File that one away for future reference.
Orton - Predicted at 26, finished at 16. Not a huge gap here, but he definitely had a better season than everyone expected. While the entire media was ganging up on Josh McDaniels for trading Cutler, Kyle Orton had a better fantasy year than Cutler did, despite playing with inferior talent.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
1. Chris Johnson (5) 2. Adrian Peterson (2) 3. Maurice Jones-Drew (12) 4. Ray Rice (10) 5. Michael Turner (8) 6. Steven Jackson (13) 7. Frank Gore (20) 8. Cedric Benson (16) 9. Rashard Mendenhall (9) 10. Deangelo Williams (61) 11. Ryan Mathews (32) 12. Ronnie Brown (30) 13. Ryan Grant (over 100) 14. Shonn Greene (37) 15. Jonathan Stewart (36) 16. Beanie Wells (57) 17. Jamaal Charles (3) 18. Pierre Thomas (55) 19. Joseph Addai (43) 20. Knowshon Moreno (17)
Top 20 Actual (Predicted)
1. Arian Foster (65) 2. Adrian Peterson (2) 3. Jamaal Charles (17) 4. Peyton Hillis (83) 5. Chris Johnson (1) 6. Darren McFadden (48) 7. LeSean McCoy (22) 8. Michael Turner (5) 9. Rashard Mendenhall (9) 10. Ray Rice (4) 11. Matt Forte (26) 12. Maurice Jones-Drew (3) 13. Steven Jackson (6) 14. Ahmad Bradshaw (27) 15. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (100+) 16. Cedric Benson (8) 17. Knowshon Moreno (20) 18. LaDanian Tomlinson (38) 19. Mike Tolbert (79) 20. Frank Gore (7)
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Ryan Grant - Predicted at 13, finished outside of the Top 100. Injured in Week 1. Not much else to say there.
Deangelo Williams - Predicted at 10, finished at 61. Injured in Week 7, never played after that, wasn't exactly tearing it up before though.
Beanie Wells - Predicted at 16, finished at 57. Not sure how he got so high in the first place. Wishful thinking due to college success?
Ryan Mathews - Predicted at 11, finished at 32. Predicting a Rookie so high is just dumb, at any position, on any team. This guy proves it. Chargers trusted Tolbert more, and he had a much better season.
Shonn Greene - Predicted at 14, finished at 37. Somewhat similar. Everyone went with youth over experience. Experience won, and his name was LaDanian Tomlinson.
Underrated:
Peyton Hillis - Predicted at 83, finished at 4. Is it possible to be a more obscure athlete than a third-string RB on the Cleveland Browns? A year later, he scores a million touchdowns and is on the cover of Madden. And oh yes, I did pick him up off the waiver wire.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Not predicted within the top 100, finished at 15. Aside from having the best nickname in the NFL (the law firm), he's just a solid player. Bellichick always ****s with fantasy players with his RBs and I do not expect this to change next year.
Arian Foster - Predicted at 65, finished at 1. So much for all those people who drafted Steve Slaton expecting the second coming.
Darren McFadden - Predicted at 48, finished at 6. This one makes sense. I never believed a Raider could achieve fantasy relevance either. Everybody gets a pass on this bad prediction!
Mike Tolbert - Predicted at 79, finished at 19. See: Ryan Mathews.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
From: SmartMuffin | #003 Stafford - Predicted at 18, finished at 40. Another one largely due to injuries, partially due to LOLions. Yeah, he shows promise, but 18 was too high, even if he stays healthy.
18 is definitely not too high if Stafford is healthy for an entire year
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to lynch people."
Freeman - Predicted at 27, finished at 7. This one was truly out of nowhere. Had never done much before, Bucs were looking dead in the water. On this, you just kind of shrug your shoulders and move on.
It was his second year <_<.
-- Sir Chris http://img.imgcake.com/Chris2pngas.png
Vincent Jackson - Predicted at 8, finished at 87. Held out/suspended. Probably would have done decently had he played, as Rivers had a fairly strong year, and some of the Chargers nobody receivers ended up doing decently.
Sidney Rice - Predicted at 10, finished at 94. Injured, and the Vikes had major QB issues all year long.
Randy Moss - Predicted at 2, finished at 68. Started the season with an amazing catch. Then got traded to Minnesota. Then got traded to Tennessee. Never did much in either stop. May very well be done.
Steve Smith (CAR) - Predicted at 18, finished at 64. Looking at his games played, it doesn't seem like he had any major injuries. This was just a trainwreck year for the Panthers, and their stars (Smith, Williams, Stewart) all suffered accordingly.
Donald Driver - Predicted at 23, finished at 58. Missed a few games in the middle of the season. Didn't do much in the last few weeks either as Green Bay evolved into a multi-target offense and Aaron Rodgers did his Tom Brady impersonation.
Underrated:
Brandon Lloyd - Not predicted within the top 130, finished at 1. Doesn't get much more underrated than this. Where did this guy come from? Also, keep in mind that the guy posted double digit games in the final three games of the season, when the Broncos had nothing to play for and Tebow was starting at QB.
Steve Johnson - Predicted at 119, finished at 10. Can't fault em for this one. It's the Bills. They suck, and Lee Evans hogs all their decent numbers. Oops! Guess not. Well, about the Lee Evans part that is, they still suck.
Mike Williams - Predicted at 103, finished at 12. Just like Josh Freeman, came out of nowhere when Tampa decided to not blow.
Mario Manningham - Predicted at 49, finished at 17. Despite the team not doing so great, Eli Manning had a decent year and spread the ball around nicely, as many Giants WRs were dependable gameday starts.
Mike Wallace - Predicted at 34, finished at 6. Surpassed Hines Ward as the go-to guy for the Steelers. Simple as that.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
1. Dallas Clark (28) 2. Antonio Gates (2) 3. Vernon Davis (3) 4. Jason Witten (1) 5. Jermichael Finley (34) 6. Brent Celek (18) 7. Tony Gonzalez (8) 8. Owen Daniels (27) 9. Kellen Winslow (6) 10. Visanthe Shiancoe (24)
Actual (Predicted)
1. Jason Witten (4) 2. Antonio Gates (2) 3. Vernon Davis (3) 4. Mercedes Lewis (27) 5. Rob Gronkowski (20) 6. Kellen Winslow (9) 7. Chris Cooley (11) 8. Tony Gonzalez (7) 9. Zach Miller (13) 10. Dustin Keller (18)
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Dallas Clark - Predicted at 1, finished at 28. Major injury, not much more to discuss.
Jermichael Finley - Predicted at 5, finished at 34. Another major injury. Decent finish for having only played in 4 games!
John Carlson - Predicted at 14, finished at 33. Played in all but two games, pretty disappointing.
Underrated:
Mercedes Lewis - Predicted at 27, finished at 4. Surprisingly good given the anemic Jacksonville offense.
Aaron Hernandez - Predicted at 44, finished at 11. Patriots TEs always get a good number of touchdowns which leads to fantasy scoring, just good luck picking the right one.
Ben Watson - Predicted at 21, finished at 12. Former TD hogging Patriots TE now in Cleveland, did decently.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Surface level analysis makes you look like a joker, and makes Watson look like a good TE. He has an astoundingly high drop rate; he doesn't show up against good caliber opposition, nor in close games. He's a career underachiever given his skill set and playing for a team like Cleveland will only exacerbate his shortcomings.
Surface level analysis makes you look like a joker, and makes Watson look like a good TE. He has an astoundingly high drop rate; he doesn't show up against good caliber opposition, nor in close games. He's a career underachiever given his skill set and playing for a team like Cleveland will only exacerbate his shortcomings.
Uh, he finished at #12 in his position last year, which was far superior to where he was projected to finish. That was my only real claim, and it is completely accurate. If you look at his stats, he seemed to do BETTER with Cleveland than he did in his final year with the Patriots.
Anyone who uses a magazine for fantasy football has no idea what they are doing.
I usually use 3-4 sources per year in addition to my own personal hunches or what have you. Typically works out decently for me.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
From: SmartMuffin | #021 Uh, he finished at #12 in his position last year, which was far superior to where he was projected to finish. That was my only real claim, and it is completely accurate. If you look at his stats, he seemed to do BETTER with Cleveland than he did in his final year with the Patriots.
This is circular logic - his perceived improvement is immaterial. Some of his stats do indicate that he had a decent year with Cleveland, yes, but the shallowness of the ranking system is the matter in question. His initial and final rankings overvalue him in a practical sense. The shame of football is that its statkeeping is primitive, but anyone with even a mild interest in football should know that there is no chance Watson is the 12th best, and probably not even the 21st best, TE in football.
--
http://img.imgcake.com/pyramidjpgyg.jpg CRYING. Acceptable at funerals and the Grand Canyon
I'm talking about FANTASY football. The amount of fantasy points scored (which determines the final rankings) is literally the only thing that matters.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Yeah, I know. I'm not taking into account pass-blocking or run-blocking. From a purely offensive standpoint, he's well below average. There are plenty of stats that don't score you points that a fantasy owner should be well aware of. Watson's drop percentage is very high among pass-catching TEs, his YAC is on the lower side of average - especially given the fact that he is almost certainly the fastest TE in the NFL. Add in the fact that his YPG is elevated because there is no QB/WR chemistry in Cleveland, and you have a guy who's built to be a bust, regardless of the fact that he outplayed his relatively inaccurate ranking on an ineffective ranking scale.
--
(11:27:20 PM) Cokes: brewing beer tomorrow woo (11:43:44 PM) Luster: OMG, Cokes is going to make moonshine.
From a purely offensive standpoint, he's well below average
You are crazily biased here. The guy finished #5 last year among TEs in both receptions and yards. Complain about drops all you want, that does NOT make him "below average at his position"
Once again, the rankings system being "ineffective" is irrelevant. The purpose of fantasy football is not to determine who is the best. It is to determine who does the best given the ranking system used, and in this case, Ben Watson does quite well!
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
His fantasy point total takes drop % and all that into consideration. If he dropped more passes, he would have scored less points.
Unless you just mean he overachieved considerably last season, which is kind of irrelevant to what Muffin is doing, which is analyzing the 2010 fantasy season on it's own. What to expect from Watson this season doesn't matter, everything that's being analyzed has already happened. In fact, expecting him to fall back to Earth is pretty much exactly what to expect if Muffin's analyses thus far are any indication.
From: TimJab | #026 His fantasy point total takes drop % and all that into consideration. If he dropped more passes, he would have scored less points.
Unless you just mean he overachieved considerably last season, which is kind of irrelevant to what Muffin is doing, which is analyzing the 2010 fantasy season on it's own. What to expect from Watson this season doesn't matter, everything that's being analyzed has already happened. In fact, expecting him to fall back to Earth is pretty much exactly what to expect if Muffin's analyses thus far are any indication.
My gist is that he is overvalued by whatever system SmartMuffin is using, particularly given the variability of even default scoring setups from site to site / league to league. We don't even know the methodology for the rankings!
--
Sophisticated ignorance, write my curses in cursive
My gist is that he is overvalued by whatever system SmartMuffin is using, particularly given the variability of even default scoring setups from site to site / league to league. We don't even know the methodology for the rankings!
They aren't that variable. The overwhelming majority give you points based on yardage and touchdowns, and minus some for fumbles lost. In a very small minority of leagues, you MAY get points per reception. It's just ridiculous that you categorize fantasy scoring as "ineffective" then base your argument on even more obscure and useless statistics like YAC and reception %, which as far as I know are not used in any fantasy leagues.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
It's like you don't know how to comprehend simple sentences!
YAC, YPG and drop % are indicative of the quality of the player as a fantasy prospect. On all accounts, Watson is poor in these categories, which is why he was overvalued initially. His final standing is his final standing, which is all well and good, but that end of season ranking last year overvalues him for this year.
--
http://img.imgcake.com/pyramidjpgyg.jpg CRYING. Acceptable at funerals and the Grand Canyon
YAC, YPG and drop % are indicative of the quality of the player as a fantasy prospect.
Not NEARLY as indicative as, I don't know, the categories that actually score you points like yards and TDs. You're literally suggesting that we ignore statistics that actually matter in lieu of using statistics that may predict the statistics that actually matter.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
From: CherryCokes | #028 My gist is that he is overvalued by whatever system SmartMuffin is using, particularly given the variability of even default scoring setups from site to site / league to league. We don't even know the methodology for the rankings!
The final rankings are indeed ESPN standard scoring.
I'm not sure by exactly what method the magazine did their pre-season rankings. In any case, everyone knows that various differences between scoring systems usually end up mattering very little in these things.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
From: SmartMuffin | #034 YAC, YPG and drop % are indicative of the quality of the player as a fantasy prospect.
Not NEARLY as indicative as, I don't know, the categories that actually score you points like yards and TDs. You're literally suggesting that we ignore statistics that actually matter in lieu of using statistics that may predict the statistics that actually matter.
Last year's fantasy categories are poor predicative measures for this year, especially in a city that has no earthly idea how to run a football team. Watson is the model of inconsistency at the TE position, both from a football perspective and a fantasy point of view.
--
"Occulams razor says you are scum" - masterplum
And yet, Benjamin Watson will prove me the ultimate victor when he ends up somewhere in the bottom third to bottom quarter of the league in fantasy TEs this year, because, I am in fact, correct.
He never said Benjamin Watson was going to be a top 12 TE this year though, he said he was a top 12 TE last year, which he was.
Next year he'll be in the overrated column.
I haven't said that... YET.
But looking at the statistics, he seems fairly solid and consistent as TEs go over the years. No, he's no Antonio Gates, but I see no reason not to think his performance will be dramatically different than last year's. 12 is a decent enough spot for him. We'll see where he ends up in my final cheat sheets though.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
Man, my argument was initially that "TD hogging" was roundly inaccurate, and then I moved to argue that his 2010 performance is a terrible indicator for anything other than the poorness of the Browns wideouts.
8 of the Top 10 pre-season QBs finished within five spots of where they were predicted. The only failures were Romo (injury) and Favre (stupidity and injury). Of the Top 10 Actual QBs, only three (Vick, Freeman, Ryan) weren't predicted in the Top 10 pre-season.
Of the Top 10 predicted RBs, every single one of them finished within the Top 20. Predictions 10-20 didn't do so well though. 11 of the Actual Top 20 were predicted there pre-season.
For WRs, it was a little shakier, but 10 of the pre-season top 20 finished in the actual top 20. TEs had about the same success rate, 5 out of the 10 pre-season top 10 finished in the actual top 10.
Obviously those aren't perfect results, but it's better than I was expecting. What's insightful is that the clear majority of the huge busts were due to random chance (injury) rather than any particular flaw in analysis.
-- SmartMuffin - Because anything less would be uncivilized http://img.imgcake.com/lolkrugmanjpgry.jpg
I won my league with ease last year by spending big on my QB and WRs, and then picking up some RBs I knew would be underrated for cheap. So satisfying getting that many points from LaDanian Tomlinson after paying, like, five fantasy draft dollars for him.
-- Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/5783/3989110m.png