game aside, you've done admirably for a newcomer, especially one thrust into endgame like this
stick around and learn to think like a maf player and you could have quite a bit of potential
that means a lot to me man. I know this is a team game and self-preservation is worthless to a team victory. Town's victory is more than self-preservation and even if I didn't appear to reflect that mindset all along, it was there... I am proud of my contributions and I want to see how things end. I had feared I would exit without leaving a lasting impression, but I feel like I've accomplished what I needed to accomplish and I am certainly thirsty for more.
-- I never said anything about banging her. Also, I wouldn't bang her. -LusterSoldier (on a fat pageant mom whose daughter chugs Mt. Dew)
Fett0001 posted... I sleep now, confident that town will make the right decision.
I don't appreciate your bulls***, Fett, considering I was never sold on you to begin with
##Vote: Fett
Lynch me, b****. Do it and you will have soem explaining to do. "Pretend" I'm vanilla town and write yourself a speech to justify lynching me... then read it aloud to everyone else after my ass flips exactly what I said it would. I don't know what the numbers are, but town can't afford to keep f***ing around and if you're painting SK on my dick and getting me kicked out after I exposed Raka, maybe scum deserves this... but f*** that. Painting me SK is a smart move on their part and I did not expect it.
Sakuya Izayoi, Vanilla Town. That's what you will see when I get peaced out. I hope that's cool with you and you're ready to pick up the pieces and win this game because I will be f***ing pissed if I get cut off just when I started to figure s*** out. I've been up longer than I should be and I'm kinda drunk now. I will be back around 6 pm tomorrow when I get home from work and I really hope to be alive. Scum thought they could protect me as a bumbling newb and now they think they can dispatch me as an SK. I caught Raka's ass. Catch the rest of them you guys.
-- I never said anything about banging her. Also, I wouldn't bang her. -LusterSoldier (on a fat pageant mom whose daughter chugs Mt. Dew)
From: Tom Bombadil | #311 Yeah, after talking to boko, 2v1v1 doesn't sound AS bad. I knew town could NL there, but didn't really think through the odds that that works out.
hrm
Only helps if SK is not BP. Do you want to risk that in 27.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
Of course, it's possible that scum could have some unexpected power, and it won't matter what we do unless we lynch that person. But we can't make a plan based on that.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: MajinZidane | #323 mafia/sk don't get to coordinate their kills
agreed. Chance of favorable town outcome, from lynching mafia, assuming BP SK, and random kills:
Mafia's favorable kill for town: SK = no kill SK's favorable kill for town: Mafia or Mafia's kill.
1-((1-1/5) * ( 1 - 2/5)).
52%
Considering that SK has a pretty good idea who Town is at this point, between you and vaga and Tom, I'd reduce odd of him shooting mafia to be ~0%.
Now we're at 1 -[(1-1/5)*(1-1/4)] = 40%
Considering also that Mafia also has a pretty good idea who's town I'll argue that the 1/5 is substantially smaller than that. probably something on the order of 1/20, that he shoots SK.
1 -[(1-1/20)*(1-1/4)] <= 29%
I don't like those chances.
Now here's the fun part:
If you lynch the SK, tomorrow's 3v2 or better.
If you lynch wrong while aiming for SK, and hit town:
We go to night at : 3 v 2 v 1
Still assuming BP SK,
Mafia has a 25% shot at hitting him, which would get us to 3v1v1, assuming SK wants to win, and doesn't shoot the mostly confirmed town.
The worst case for a mislynch is 1 v 2 v 1, which is scum victory. This requires both scum and SK to shoot town, which would be idiotic on the SK's part.
Mafia will try to kill town. SK will try to kill mafia. That gets you to your 2v1v1. Which is still an SK win, but at least you'll be happy, boko.
_________
I don't want to be in a situation where the optimal play for both sides is to shoot town. Everything will be too clear for mafia for them to make a mistake.
Your only hope is that Caelus is a bad enough SK to make an error, should you decide to lynch regaro.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
Lynching mafia: if SK isn't BP, then he doesn't want to go to 2v1v1, and the outcome will shift towards 3v1, based on the likelihood of him aiming for mafia as a better chance of victory.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
fortunately for town, mafia also wants us to lynch the SK, especially if he;s BP, as that gives them the best shot to win the game, by trying to survive the lynches.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
you typed up a lot of percents but here's a short and sweet:
2/1/1, town forces no kill to win the game, anti town must shoot the other anti town if mafia shoots sk and sk shoots town, mafia wins if sk shoots mafia and mafia shoots town, sk wins if both shoot the same town, 1/1/1 and the same thing happens if they both shoot different town, they go both lose/tie
in order to win the game, anti town needs to shoot the other anti town faction and hope they shoot town.
so if the most likely result in 2/1/1 is a crosskill and town win, then i'm pretty comfortable with those odds.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."
i'm going to have a hard time posting actively until 10pm est, although there could be short visits before then, so please don't end the game before that point - let's all keep on discussing!
you can have my entire friday, though.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."
From: htaeD | #332 this is all assuming Silver was scum, right? because scum could also be at 3 members, couldn't they?
Nah. Then we're just f***ed. So why worry about that. I'm trying to win, not trying to think about ways I could never win.
If scum has three members, then one of tom, boko and vaga is scum. I don't want to think about town reviving scum reviver, Scum prosty that fed us luis, or scum doublevoting out of topic talker.
But if so, town can't win, if SK's BP. that's 4 scum to kill and only 2 lynches to do it with.
From: MajinZidane | #335 oh, you wrote "assuming bpsk" okay
Do you think that is unlikely in 27?
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
as far as I am concerned Fett and Reg are the ones I'd call likeliest to be scum
and Machete would be the SK by default, unless we are dealing with a prosty sk somehow
but I dont know, somehow Machete feels like a trap and considering that Kracko flipped town paralyzer, scum doublevoter doesnt seem impossibly unfair, for a HGR game..
me town vaga town regaro town (scanned town, flipped godfather, presumably no second scum godfather, did not get up, not serial killer)
3 out of these 4 scum:
fett/death/tom/caelus
fett/death obviously scum - why not
tom/caelus 1 of scum
i like caelus and tom as the "op sk in 27"... makes sense. i will have to grill him more tonight.
problem occurs if we have 3 mafia/1sk right now.
problem occurs if regaro is a second inno scanning scum.
caelus could have been the newbie who went after raka as hard as he could knowing raka was his own scum buddy - do you think this is what happened?
will be on sporadically, don't end the day imo, take this in and think about it deeply vaga/regaro. i'm going to be so late to class oh god why did i post this.
vaga i trust you most as a townie after me, want your thoughts exactly.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."
SK in 27 needs to have staying-alive and super-killing kindsa stuff, not screwing-with-heads kindsa stuff, and I think BP/Assassin/Whatever else is a bit much on top of my stuff. Caelus or Fett however could have pretty much anything.
also really boko
do you really think scumbolo is this active late in the game
--
A krahenProphet well done is worth two in the bush, But all that ends well is not gold.
Got time to post before work. First off, I apologize for being too drunk last night. I now understand exactly what the SK did and it's pretty smart. If I didn't get my lynch, kill the dude I was after and make me look like the SK. Smart, but in my opinion desperate, because if I get lynched, I WILL flip town and then who will he hide behind? I need to regather my thoughts when I get home from work.
##Unvote
-- I never said anything about banging her. Also, I wouldn't bang her. -LusterSoldier (on a fat pageant mom whose daughter chugs Mt. Dew)
eh SK shooting Raka seems like an obvious move either the dude was scum and killing him would help keep town alive or he kills the doctor and gets rid of a threat to his killing spree
I am seriously insulted that you guys were considering quicklynching me and frankly it's likely somebody considering that was scum.
Chris scanned me town AND Boko visited me last night AND I didn't get up and sheesh you guys start using your heads a bit instead of whatever the hell you're doing I dunno what it is but it's certainly not thinking. Worst thing we can do here is lynch town because that's literally surrendering the game to scum and they don't really deserve it given who's flipped.
Fett's whole thing about "We need to lynch the SK today" makes a good deal of sense. Lynching Mafia at this juncture does force us to rely on a crosskill at some point. The problem is argh sk hunting what a pain. Part of the reason I just said "**** it, let's blow 'em all up" last game.