From: HeroicZidane | #349 Brogaro, I said you were town. Thoughts on my fun theories? Do you buy Caelus?
Eh. I don't think Scum-Caelus would come out and rail against Raka at the end of the day like he did when Kracko was a viable town lynch. He's probably my number 1 choice for SK at this point though, because Sk-Reviver/Prosty/Doublevoter are pretty out there, Death didn't get up when he was slept with, and Fett being able to more-or-less instantly rattle off that claim (IIRC) with no flavor familiarity (And IIRC Shados didn't even paraphrase, but that's not really a factor here) speaks a bit in his favor.
As for your theories, which ones <_< I don't see any that are like "oh hey that's new and exciting" I'm afraid
From: HeroicZidane | #352 People who are town, scum, SK.
Cos if you're town, you probably agree that death/fett are scum and one of bolo/caleus is the SK, right?
Technically, any of the above four could be mafia or sk, but I like the way I've currently compartmentalized it.
Oh
The way I stand right now is that Me/You/Bolo/OiO are town. Of those, you're the only one who could be scum, I think, and that's reaching a bit. No need to worry about it for now.
Death/Fett are probably the scum at this point, yeah. Like I said earlier, I don't see scum Caelus going out against Raka like that at the end of the day with Kracko on the block too.
Which leaves Caelus as SK and probably the guy that should hang today yeah.
Tom Bombadil posted... how do I make sense as the OP SK in 27
SK in 27 needs to have staying-alive and super-killing kindsa stuff, not screwing-with-heads kindsa stuff, and I think BP/Assassin/Whatever else is a bit much on top of my stuff. Caelus or Fett however could have pretty much anything.
also really boko
do you really think scumbolo is this active late in the game
We don't know if you can die at night, what you scan as, and anon doublevote (while being inherently scummy for being anon) is pseudo killing power. Plus, sk never gets extra kills anyway, they get self-preservation which you might have.
Manipulation via masonry is pretty damn strong, too! Ask Drak and DNE!
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to be posting from your cell phone." MajinZidane - Boko~!
well meanwhile I wish I could say there is no way for Reg to be scum
but if he isnt then I can only assume (even with Silver as scum), that scum has just 7 members
7+1 in 27 when a dayvig exists.. is that reasonable?
I keep thinking maybe its possible that Caelus and Fett are scum together, and maybe they counted on hiding behind Ulti and Reg today. But I dont see Caelus being so antagonistic..
I also wonder if scum knows who SK is by this point and if Fett is trying to steer us to lynching town instead
From: _Regaro_ | #362 I see no reason to believe silver was scum. If he was we're in excellent shape regardless, I think. May as well exercise the caution that he's town
We'll be hard pressed to come up with a situation where 3 mafia left will work out.
On the bright side, it means mafia will be searching for SK tonight, if we lynch mafia and there were three. Actually, who am I kidding. Mafia oughta kill tom if they're at 2 v 1 v3 tonight. Tom's their biggest threat, and since we're hoping to hit the SK today, they'll have a much better idea who it is.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
Okay, I understand Fett's urgency to get the SK. Lynching the SK is the only guaranteed method of allowing Town to win. However, a mafia lynch gives town the possibility for the best setup the following day. WCS it ends up 2/1/1 and then Town has to pray for SK to hit Scum and Scum to hit SK.
If the scum team has 3 members left...well, today is probably the end anyway as they could pile on to win. That would also require a mafia lynch to survive at all.
So, in that aspect, a Scum lynch is safer if we are very confident in who is Scum and half-guessing on who is SK.
Going from that: 1. _Regaro_ 2. Fett0001 3. htaeD 4. ImTheMacheteGuy 5. MajinZidane 6. Mr_Vaga 7. Tom Bombadil
Huh, the list is nicely organized with Nilla on top and Power on bottom...so lets start with Nilla: Not SK: 1. _Regaro_ - Also scanned Inno by Chris. I'm really thinking that he has been useless simply because he rolled boring Vanilla.
As far as I can tell, we should vaguely know the powers the remaining scum have. UnIdentifier sounds like an awkward way to say Janitor. This leaves 2 events not accounted for: Short Day & Spiral seeing Silver Silver had no reason to visit Raka at night if he was scum, so I'm completely throwing the shapeshifter idea out the window. I never understood why shapeshifter would need to visit someone at night anyway (I suppose to copy their flavor...but then he wouldn't have flipped Vanilla). So I'm pretty sure Spiral's scan was manipulated somehow.
So, Inno Day-Cutter and Inno Hallucinator don't seem likely. Though if Reg is the one who tampered with Spirals scan, his role could involve choosing to either make scans on himself appear different or someone else's scan appear differently every night. (Though this wouldn't have even come to my mind if not for the Mega-GF in FE)
3. htaeD - Probably scum. Out of the 4 Nillas (Miller is being considered Vanilla), and probably out of everyone, he's my top choice. I'll give it to death that there's not a whole lot to discern from his town and his scum play, but either Boko and Tom are Scum or he is.
Could be SK: 2. Fett0001 - Inno-Scan SK isn't uncommon at all. I also really don't like how he came out of the gate gunning for Reg and not Death at all. Only reason he falls lower on the scum list is that shado's miller claim would have been fairly risky at that point in the game. Also, Fett didn't seem to entirely realize shado had claimed when he got into the game (though this could have been an act). I might have to flip a coin between him and Reg on who to lynch.
4. ImTheMacheteGuy - Everything about yesterday says not Scum. SK is still very possible. If he is Scum, I'll proudly lose to the new guy who cleared himself by almost lynching his teams Scum Doc when it wasn't at all necessary with a Kracko lynch very possible.
Scum Rank: Death Reg/Fett Caelus
SK Rank: Caelus Fett Death/Reg (Not possible unless Boko is lying, or unless my conspiracy theory role for Reg is true)
Will get to Boko and Tom after I pop some food in the microwave
From: Mr_Vaga | #368 Also, Fett didn't seem to entirely realize shado had claimed when he got into the game (though this could have been an act)
Still haven't read the first three topics.
Not likely to do so.
So, in that aspect, a Scum lynch is safer if we are very confident in who is Scum and half-guessing on who is SK.
BP is incredibly likely in 27. What you're not getting is that you have to act under the WCS. I want to win. I don't want to maybe win, but only if scum helps us. what the f*** man.
If we lynch town, SK will kill scum, or he loses. Then we're at 2 v 1 v 1. If the SK isn't playing to win, he should be modkilled, and his kill shouldn't count.
If we lynch scum, SK will shoot town, because 2 v1 v1 is winnable for BPSK.
If we lynch SK, We find out if there are three scum (we'd have lost anyways), or we go to 3 v 2, which, if ,as you proposed, we know who scum is, we win.
You don't risk a loss. Sorry dude. Gotta kill SK.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
allthough that could just be because Fett really is the last scum left and doesnt want town to close in on him (slowly if I get lynched, or instantly if he gets targeted)
allthough that could just be because Fett really is the last scum left and doesnt want town to close in on him (slowly if I get lynched, or instantly if he gets targeted)
Uh, dude. No. Nowhere near enough scum if I'm the last one.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
Boko: I'll openly admit a large part of my suspicion of you comes from the fact you are Boko. Only other time I've played with scum Boko was Sir Chris Mafia and I had assumed you were scum because of meta based on Blade's gambit which turned out to be a big acting job. Scum has not had a power flip that would allow to figure out Town Power or the SK at all. However, the fact that they cut a day in half, limited a night to only Scum night actions, likely have a role that messes with scans, and had a Scum Doc might mean HGR felt he would cause enough confusion among Town with all that to where scum wouldn't need any type of scanning role.
With Raka's flip it seems that HGR might have given Town lots of scanning to make up for the lack of protection it had so I'm less worried about prosti fitting in with the other town power. Also, if he were scum and making up his night actions, it would be counter-productive for him to basically clear players who might be the SK.
As for being the SK, probably not. I forget if your targets get a message or not, and if they do that basically clears him of this as I don't like SK Prosti, though I suppose its not impossible. Other then that, fake-claiming to have caught Luis seems unlikely.
So, Boko, I'm going with Town. A large part of this is also the fact that I feel it'd become rather apparent whether or not he's Town in the following day.
Tom: DV + SK + Mason-for-a-day? I suppose that's possible, but he wouldn't be my first choice. That combination just seems...really random.
As for Scum? Been worried about this for a while. My hunch that the SBell lynch had scum on it proved correct with Raka flipping. The only other person on the lynch who hasn't flipped is Tom who's Anon vote looked to secure SBell's lynch until he claimed and Ed became the special. I also haven't particularly liked his D2 vote on Shadow much at all, some explanation for that one. That and the Town Paralyzer thing makes me wary of Town Paralyzer + DV.
So...to round it all out. Scum is most likely: Death, Tom, Fett/Reg, Boko SK is likely: Caelus, Fett, Tom, Boko
We don't know if you can die at night, what you scan as, and anon doublevote (while being inherently scummy for being anon) is pseudo killing power. Plus, sk never gets extra kills anyway, they get self-preservation which you might have.
Like I said, I feel like that's a bit much for me to theoretically have. My confirmed power set isn't a great one for SK, but any more traditional SK goodies added on to that would make it a bit too borked, I think. You said yourself that the masonish thing is strong for a scum role.
From: htaeD | Posted: 2/16/2012 11:10:51 AM | #360 I also wonder if scum knows who SK is by this point and if Fett is trying to steer us to lynching town instead
I don't see any motivation for maffett or mafanybodyelse to try to lynch town instead of SK.
also can we please stop using "scum" as a synonym for "mafia" thanks
From: htaeD | Posted: 2/16/2012 11:31:37 AM | #363 Tom, why is your second vote anonymous again?
why shouldn't it be
From: Fett0001 | Posted: 2/16/2012 2:19:49 PM | #367 I feel like no one else cares about this game.
well I care but I also care about paying my rent so
also man fett stepping up at endgame I can't tell whether I feel better or worse about him but this is like the most I've seen him post
From: Tom Bombadil | #382 also man fett stepping up at endgame I can't tell whether I feel better or worse about him but this is like the most I've seen him post
You know me. I like endgames. Unfortunately, I usually get there as scum, so I can't cite examples of active town play.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
And yeah, Tom's Role + SK seems like a jumble of stuff that doesn't make sense.
I'm more worried about Scum DV which would cause a 3-2 lylo to basically be a scum win. That also makes HGR seem kind of cruel, although the massive Town death party kind of tipped the scale a bit.
For what it's worth, too, with Reimu and Yukari and Suika gone the only SK candidates I can really think of are Yuuka and Flandre, and I can't come up with any reason for them to have my powers. Then again, I can't come up with a reason for them to be BP either and a 27-man SK kinda almost needs to be.
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http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6126/tombombadil.jpg KrahenProphet, however, is!