Board 8 > College Football Discussion Week 13 - Rivalry Edition

(+) Yeah! (+)

Looks like the Vols have their sights on Greg Schiano. I think I'm actually okay with that. As bad as he was in the NFL, not many guys can turn Rutgers into a winning program.
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And it appears Mullen to Florida is almost finalized, too.
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LeonhartFour posted...

And it appears Mullen to Florida is almost finalized, too.

As a KY fan this is great....

We still lose to him every year, but now Miss St. dies again.

SSJBGenkiDama posted...

Leonhart4 posted...

Ohio State isn't getting in over Bama with two losses.

Duh

Yeah, as an Ohio State fan I can't see a way for us in now. We're basically relying on the committee saying Alabama hasn't beaten anyone and Ohio State has ranked multiple ranked wins. That Iowa loss is really hard to overlook though, at least Bama could say their only loss was to another playoff team. I guess if Georgia beat Auburn it would help our case but probably not enough because it's Alabama.

Either way, I think we get murdered by an actual elite team (which may not exist this year) so probably for the best if we get left out. This is probably our worst team in the playoff era but I expected it at season start at least. Sillier part is our best team in the playoff era (justifiably) didn't make it.

I don't think Wisconsin beats us so we're likely looking at a Oklahoma, Clemson, Auburn, Alabama playoff.

ShatteredElysium posted...

SSJBGenkiDama posted...

Leonhart4 posted...

Ohio State isn't getting in over Bama with two losses.

Duh

Yeah, as an Ohio State fan I can't see a way for us in now. We're basically relying on the committee saying Alabama hasn't beaten anyone and Ohio State has multiple ranked wins. That Iowa loss is really hard to overlook though, at least Bama could say their only loss was to another playoff team. I guess if Georgia beat Auburn it would help our case but probably not enough because it's Alabama.

Either way, I think we get murdered by an actual elite team (which may not exist this year) so probably for the best if we get left out. This is probably our worst team in the playoff era but I expected it at season start at least. Sillier part is our best team in the playoff era (justifiably) didn't make it.

I don't think Wisconsin beats us so we're likely looking at a Oklahoma, Clemson, Auburn, Alabama playoff.

You get in if TCU wins probably

Yeah, TCU beating OU is probably their only path in, although OU would have 2 losses too and they have the head-to-head.
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Leonhart4 posted...

Ohio State isn't getting in over Bama with two losses.

Oh, they are

just like how Penn State got in last year with 2 losses and a Big Ten championship win over a 1-loss powerhouse
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although the committee loves gifting Ohio State playoff berths so who knows
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LeonhartFour posted...

just like how Penn State got in last year with 2 losses and a Big Ten championship win over a 1-loss powerhouse

Oh, the difference here is that Alabama's no powerhouse. Their schedule is awful. It was fine as long as they were undefeated, but now their lack of a quality win is going to kill them.

The difference is that Bama doesn't have a 40 point loss to Iowa.
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The loss to Iowa is bad but the CFP doesn't really look at how much you lost by very much. If they cared about margin of victory, Alabama would still be in trouble anyway.

Paratroopa1 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

just like how Penn State got in last year with 2 losses and a Big Ten championship win over a 1-loss powerhouse

Oh, the difference here is that Alabama's no powerhouse. Their schedule is awful. It was fine as long as they were undefeated, but now their lack of a quality win is going to kill them.

They pass the "Bama test"

It's like the "eye test" only the reverse. It doesn't matter how you look, is your name Alabama?

If so you pass, if not you fail....

It is cute you think 2 loss OSU has a shot over one loss Bama though....

Spoiler: they don't.

OSU needs TCU to win.

Not sure how. They blew out most of their games, and losing 12 points to Auburn is a lot better than by 40 to Iowa.

Also, LSU will probably be a top 15 team by the final playoff rankings.
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And Kevin Sumlin is officially out at A&M.
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Ohio State's the king of blowing their opponents the fuck out. Alabama's pretty modest by comparison.

They're actually pretty similar.

Just for conference game blowouts:

56-0
62-14
56-14
48-3
52-14

vs.

59-0
66-3
41-9
45-7
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Here's the whole difference between Alabama this year and Ohio State last year - last year, Ohio State beat Oklahoma out of conference. That's it. Alabama has no win that good in their entire schedule, and their best out-of-conference game was "cupcake" Fresno State. You know how Washington's schedule sucks this year? Alabama's is close to identical. Their lack of even being in a championship game at all is going to kill them - OSU leapfrogs them by notching an impressive Wisconsin win on their resume and becoming Big Ten champs. They just do. Alabama's schedule is not good enough to weather not being in the championship game. OSU's schedule last year was.

You forgot Ohio State's 49-21 at Indiana, but it's sort of beside the point because margin of victory doesn't really matter

Also they especially don't matter since both teams blew out the absolute dregs of their conference, but at least OSU did post a huge blowout of good-team Michigan State. Alabama's got nothing like that.

Going off the AP poll, Alabama actually have more ranked wins than Ohio State. Because somehow beating Fresno State (ranked 25) is a better win than Michigan.

That game also wasn't really a blowout most of the game.

but yes margin of victory doesn't matter but this was just hypothetical anyway

Bama's 39-11.5 in average margin of victory and Ohio State's is 44-20
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Yeah, the one thing that leaves me a little unsure is whether or not the CFP will value those wins over Fresno State and Colorado State enough to still treat Alabama's schedule as passable. They probably shouldn't, but the CFP has weird standards. (Ole Miss may have done Alabama a huge solid upsetting Mississippi State, by the way - Miss St might still be ranked, but now Ole Miss is 6-6)

LSU would probably be a top ten team if not for that bizarre loss to Troy. That might end up costing Alabama in the end if OSU does get in over them.
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There is no one. Not even Kirk fucking Herbstreit who spends 365 days a year sucking OSU's dick, in the media who has 2 loss Champion OSU over one loss non Champion Bama. Not one soul who spoke on it last night.

It's the loss to Iowa that is just impossible to overlook. It would be one thing if it was close but when it's a 31 point loss to an unranked team who then got demolished by Wisconsin and lost to Purdue immediately after. Yeah, that's just not playoff worthy.

If both Ohio State and Auburn win

Auburn - 3 ranked wins, 2 unbeatens (#1, #1 and presumably #7)
Ohio State - 3 ranked wins, 2 unbeatens (#2, #12 and presumably #3)

That Alabama loss was kind of nightmare scenario for us. We needed Alabama to win out. Everything else would have kind of fallen into place for us if they did.

You're getting distracted there. Don't compare yourself to Auburn, Auburn is clearly ahead of you, and they're also clearly ahead of Alabama. Alabama winning out would have been a much easier path, but OSU still leapfrogs Alabama with a win over Wisconsin.

Oh I know Auburn is clearly ahead of us, I'm just saying that we would have a very similar resume to Auburn except we have that crippling loss on there which is the difference maker.

No, the resume's still closer to Auburn than you think. How badly you got your asses beat by Iowa isn't really that important to the CFP.

so apparently the backlash from Tennessee fans at the news that the Vols are about to hire Schiano has him so spooked that he might back out

also state representatives have reached out to the program asking them not to hire him
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Paratroopa1 posted...

You're getting distracted there. Don't compare yourself to Auburn, Auburn is clearly ahead of you, and they're also clearly ahead of Alabama. Alabama winning out would have been a much easier path, but OSU still leapfrogs Alabama with a win over Wisconsin.

They don't...

But this confidence probbaly means you shouldn't be allowed to complain when they inevitably don't next Sunday...

Stinking Penn State choking away 2 losses by 4 total points to good opponents. Ugh. I am still salty about this weeks later.
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Looks like Florida stole Mullen from Miss St.
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R.I.P. Greg Schiano era (11/26/17-11/26/17)

this is kind of insane
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Tennessee fans really overvalue their bargaining position in the world right now.
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I honestly feel like people care less about Schiano's role in the Penn State thing and are more ashamed that they are stuck hiring a retread, so they're using that as an excuse

It's okay, as a Washington fan, I know how it feels to think you're a premier destination for coaches when you're really not

kevwaffles posted...

Tennessee fans really overvalue their bargaining position in the world right now.

I mean Tennessee fans have always had delusions of grandeur

we'd have never fired Fulmer if they didn't

but hey we got a callout from the White House

what a day
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Paratroopa1 posted...

I honestly feel like people care less about Schiano's role in the Penn State thing and are more ashamed that they are stuck hiring a retread, so they're using that as an excuse

It's okay, as a Washington fan, I know how it feels to think you're a premier destination for coaches when you're really not

If it gets John Currie out the door as AD, I'll honestly say it might be worth it. He's been awful.

Name Fulmer AD and go try again.
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I was pretty "what, about Schiano but ok
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Looks like Ole Miss is the latest school to go "eh why not" to their interim coach.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

538 has a mini-version of the Playoff Machine if you want to mess around with scenarios this weekend and see what they project as odds for each team making the playoffs.
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Oh man, there's fan video footage of JT Barrett getting injured by the cameraman. Doesnt show the actual hit but shows JT warming up and then him hopping away with someone saying dude just hit JTs knee with cameramen walking around where he's warming up. (Disclaimer, I have sound off as I'm watching at work and trusting the article)

https://ohiostate.247sports.com/Article/Watch-TMZ-video-shows-Ohio-State-Buckeyes-JT-Barrett-and-cameraman-aftermath-111266173

Thought it was smoke and mirrors but apparently did actually happen? Like that's seriously fucked up, shouldn't ever be a possibility

So now the Vols are trying to land Mike Gundy. That mullet would be right at home in Tennessee.
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The only thing we really learned is the committee hates TCU.

Literally passed by USC. USC didn't even play last week.
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The committee always hates TCU.
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True.
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Meow1000 posted...

The only thing we really learned is the committee hates TCU.

Literally passed by USC. USC didn't even play last week.

No.

We leaner now absoltely unquestionably that OSU is done.. Any debate is out. They aren't going from 8 to 4.

And Miami might not jump Bama either....
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Ohio State was pretty obviously going to be the 8. The only team they had any chance of being ahead of was Miami.

And winning gets them to 5 at the bare minimum. It SHOULD get them to 4, but probably doesn't.
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Miami will jump Bama because they'll have beaten the top ranked team. Auburn just jumped from 6th to 2nd because of it.
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The committee also hates UCF but that's been obvious for quite some time.

They have basically mirrored what they did for Western Michigan last year despite this year being weaker at the top and UCF being more impressive than Western Michigan were last year