Board 8 > Chris Music Mafia Topic 1: Dreams and Nightmares.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

So join Plum. It's arbitrary. It's based on nothing. That's the point.

Well...I mean, whatever gets the votes, I guess.

taking from my last scumgame I can agree with Leo
scum gets away with a lot because town always limits itself to a few players each day

and by the time Mylo comes around, they are too lazy or tired out to broaden their scopes.
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on that note
Might as well!

##Vote: Plum

Though I also feel like making a mountain out of Zam, despite the usual 'oh he is just Zam'.
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##Vote: plum

I'll join the plum train for now, but I would like to make a strong motion for Tony as Scum #2.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Anyone else not expecting the game to actually get posted tonight?

I know I probably shouldn't meta the emoji, but this looks very much like a "look I'm here" check-in.
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Wow, I'm more persuasive than I thought if Death is going to vote before the very last minute of a day. See, this crusade is already providing delicious information acorns for town squirrels to munch on. And I guess Puns was serious so maybe this isn't even making a mountain out of a molehill.

The Inquisition

1. Plum
2. Chaos Tony (if Plum is not a witch)

Plenty of room on the wagon. Don't be shy, hop on! This is a 22 player game, four people is a tiny drop in the bucket. If Plum is scum, he gets ignored until he single handedly wins the game. He's a dangerous scum because he has no scruples. He tugged my heartstrings once and RIPPED MY HEART OUT in Visual Novel Mafia 2. And if he does well, he's a formidable town player two. He's a "good analysis, poor charisma" type player. So going after him first is win/win.

##vote leo

That is a bandwagon vote of I've ever seen one you must be scumm
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Of course I'm "serious". plum is a player I've always been somewhat in tune with and I think I'm onto something. After years of playing mafia though, I finally learned how to not drive a point into the ground when it's objectively not a very thorough argument. Just say it and be done with it. So I am glad that Leo is adding that "oomph" to the lynch to give it more support without trying to fabricate some impossible amount of confidence in the accuracy of the lynch based on minimal content (literally one plum post).

I'm also grateful to death and Han, though I award them no town points yet.

Hey TheSultanOfSlam, I don't think we've ever interacted before. So I just wanted to say hi.

I disagree with your vote entirely, but I like that you made it because it feels sincere. Bandwagons are often a good thing this early in the game, because they get people to start talking about actual meaningful content.

Hi puns
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Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

He's a dangerous scum because he has no scruples.

I made sure to bring a few extra scruples for this game, in case we need them.

Leo isn't the bandwagon vote though, Sultan. Two votes does not a bandwagon make.

Also Leo will literally always vote who you ask him to because he's such a nice guy.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

##Vote: plum

I'll join the plum train for now, but I would like to make a strong motion for Tony as Scum #2.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Anyone else not expecting the game to actually get posted tonight?

I know I probably shouldn't meta the emoji, but this looks very much like a "look I'm here" check-in.

We called him emoji Tony last game he was more crazy then this last game
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Still voting Leo he just seems off
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TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Still voting Leo he just seems off

If it's not about the bandwagoning, then what seems "off"? Have you played with Leo before?

htaeD posted...

Corrik always does the percentage thing
it never makes sense

Sure it does.

5/16
5/21
6/22

If I asked you the chances I would be scum in 3 games in a row with this breakdown, it would be

2% or a 1/50 chance.

So, yeah, there is a 2% chance I would roll scum in all 3 games in a row.

However, since I already rolled scum in those both those games already, my odds of rolling scum this game are 27.3%, but bigger picture it is 2% for all three.
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If we based everything on probability we'd just do nothing but vote without any discussion.

turbopuns2 posted...

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Still voting Leo he just seems off

If it's not about the bandwagoning, then what seems "off"? Have you played with Leo before?

This is only my 2nd game and leo wasn't in it but the bandwagon is reason 1 by far his reasoning is just
Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

Plenty of room on the wagon. Don't be shy, hop on! This is a 22 player game, four people is a tiny drop in the bucket. If Plum is scum, he gets ignored until he single handedly wins the game. He's a dangerous scum because he has no scruples.

Just seems odd to me like what?
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Corrik posted...

htaeD posted...

Corrik always does the percentage thing
it never makes sense

Sure it does.

5/16
5/21
6/22

If I asked you the chances I would be scum in 3 games in a row with this breakdown, it would be

2% or a 1/50 chance.

So, yeah, there is a 2% chance I would roll scum in all 3 games in a row.

However, since I already rolled scum in those both those games already, my odds of rolling scum this game are 27.3%, but bigger picture it is 2% for all three.

Never tell me the odds.
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I've been scum 3 times is a row... more than once ,>_>
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MZero11 posted...

I've been scum 3 times is a row... more than once ,>_>

Yep.

This is why having a grasp on probability and statistics is good. Everybody has an aunt or a grandma who smoked cigarettes for 65 years without dying from lung cancer.

To quote Crossfiyah (whoa throwback), "statistics mean very little when your sample size is 1."

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Just seems odd to me like what?

What Leo is saying is absolutely true. A lot of newbie (and some experienced) town feel like putting your vote on someone who turns out to be town is UNFORGIVABLE and grounds for ETERNAL SHAME.

But that's just not how it works. What happens waaay too often is that all of town is very timid about voting because they just aren't _sure_ about it. Then before you know it the entire day phase has passed and town, who outnumber scum by a lot, have failed to apply pressure to a single person. Without pressure, we can't make accurate reads nearly as often.

So Leo's case for his vote is completely legit. That doesn't change if plum is town, nor does it change if Leo is mafia. The reasoning is good.

masterplum posted...

I dont want any of this scum scan business where one of them is scanned guilty and says oh lol see I was telling the truth, or was scanned innocent and says oh lol I was lying,

I really don't get this part. Scum claiming miller scanned innocent? Lying non-miller town scanned innocent?
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Good morning

That Plum post may have looked odd (who scans claimed millers?) but something else crosses my mind.

##Vote: Leo

Demanding activity and pressure is fine. However, demanding activity and pressure while outright stating your vote is arbitrary and based on nothing is another matter. How, my dear Leo, do you expect to create this amazing pressure that will get reactions from Plum when you straight up tell him your vote has no conviction behind it? Strikes me as trying to look like you're doing some good town work but overplaying your hand on how you describe the process - outside of games it's cool to talk about voting people just to see what happens, but in a game it doesn't contribute to actual scum hunting to tell your target you have no real reason for voting them, because that makes them far less likely to feel pressure from it.

As far as other people go, I like Zam so far. I think I like Puns as town (though I'm not sure I buy the miller claim). Zach only posted a few times but it was enough to get me thinking he might be scum.
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Hey sultan, do I know you from somewhere?

Also I dont feel like Leo was bandwagoning
His sentiments came across as genuine.

Also I wonder why Leo gets attention for it, but not me or Han.
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htaeD posted...

Hey sultan, do I know you from somewhere?

Also I dont feel like Leo was bandwagoning
His sentiments came across as genuine.

Also I wonder why Leo gets attention for it, but not me or Han.

Maybe I've had a couple drawing topics and I was very active in uca. Also panthera makes my point better then I did
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TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Also panthera makes my point better then I did

I thought your point was that Leo was dropping a bandwagon vote, which is definitely not the point I'm making
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Interesting. A Plum defense force has started crawling out. It's "interesting" because what kind of Town doesn't want to see where this goes? People should be thrilled that they're gonna get sweet info but here people are trying to kill it before it even begins. Very sunny to suppress info this early. And don't be fooled, they're voting me, but it's because they don't like me going after Plum. I mean, the time to vote me would be if Plum turned out to be super towny and I was bring suspicious.

But this early? For trying to make something happen? Do not like.

Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

It's "interesting" because what kind of Town doesn't want to see where this goes? People should be thrilled that they're gonna get sweet info

I'd be interested if you had actually made any attempt to get the alleged "sweet info" instead of just pretending to
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Plum literally hasn't even returned yet.

Panthera posted...

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Also panthera makes my point better then I did

I thought your point was that Leo was dropping a bandwagon vote, which is definitely not the point I'm making

Was the other point I was trying to make but didn't know how to word it
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Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

Plum literally hasn't even returned yet.

And what would he think when he returns? "Oh heavens, someone has said they're voting me for no reason besides seeing what happens, I must divulge all my secrets now"
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Sultan how do you feel about the other people who voted Plum, since those look more likely to be bandwagon votes than Leo's vote?
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"I don't like when scum forces town-town lynches"

"Let's put a bunch of votals on a stated arbitrary target"

##Vote: Leo

I agree with you in theory Leo. Much better in a large game for players to use votes liberally to apply pressure. I just like when that pressure is based on actual reason. :)
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Leo3Leo3Leo posted...

Wow, I'm more persuasive than I thought if Death is going to vote before the very last minute of a day. See, this crusade is already providing delicious information acorns for town squirrels to munch on. And I guess Puns was serious so maybe this isn't even making a mountain out of a molehill.

The Inquisition

1. Plum
2. Chaos Tony (if Plum is not a witch)

Plenty of room on the wagon. Don't be shy, hop on! This is a 22 player game, four people is a tiny drop in the bucket. If Plum is scum, he gets ignored until he single handedly wins the game. He's a dangerous scum because he has no scruples. He tugged my heartstrings once and RIPPED MY HEART OUT in Visual Novel Mafia 2. And if he does well, he's a formidable town player two. He's a "good analysis, poor charisma" type player. So going after him first is win/win.

also this post. setting up a second target for virtually no reason other than being asked to.

driving conversation on day one is one thing, setting up a plan to target people without logic is another. much more confident with a leo push here.
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Leo throwing his name behind a potential Tony train isn't without logic, it was done in support of Han's very tenuous logic. Dumey, how do you feel about Han, what with him jumping on the Plum train and being the one to actually set the the plan to target Tony you oppose when Leo joins?

...Leo, are you and Han by any chance...forming an alliance?
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ins t the point to go after EVERYONE?
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htaeD posted...

Hey sultan, do I know you from somewhere?

Also I dont feel like Leo was bandwagoning
His sentiments came across as genuine.

Also I wonder why Leo gets attention for it, but not me or Han.

And more people carried it.

Maybe Leo is Scum, and people like Sultan and Panth are bussing here?
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Panthera posted...

it was done in support of Han's very tenuous logic.

I think you need to look up what that word means, because you clearly don't have it right.
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htaeD posted...

ins t the point to go after EVERYONE?

silly me i thought the point was to go after scum. :O

Panthera posted...

Leo throwing his name behind a potential Tony train isn't without logic, it was done in support of Han's very tenuous logic. Dumey, how do you feel about Han, what with him jumping on the Plum train and being the one to actually set the the plan to target Tony you oppose when Leo joins?

...Leo, are you and Han by any chance...forming an alliance?

I mean, Han's suspicion of Tony seems pretty dumb to me as well. I honestly don't know how to weight "check-in" posts on Day 1. I did literally nothing but joke in the first page, contributing absolutely nothing useful before I went to bed for the night, but no suspicion was sent my way. At least there's a reason at all, but it's obviously tenuous.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Panthera posted...

it was done in support of Han's very tenuous logic.

I think you need to look up what that word means, because you clearly don't have it right.

having just used the same word independently, i now wonder what you think the definition is.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Panthera posted...

it was done in support of Han's very tenuous logic.

I think you need to look up what that word means, because you clearly don't have it right.

Emoji meta justifying seeing something as a check in post isn't exactly the strongest logic I've seen in the past thirty seven days.
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Even without the emoji, that tony post was a check-in post

EDumey posted...

htaeD posted...

ins t the point to go after EVERYONE?

silly me i thought the point was to go after scum. :O

To go after everyone to see whether they are town or not
Not to lynch them one by one.

I suppose though the downside would be the increased chance in outing scum
hmm
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*outing townpower

Weird mind fart there.
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turbopuns2 posted...

Even without the emoji, that tony post was a check-in post

Specifically a scum check in, is the part that is on shaky ground
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I dont mind the Tony post itself.
I mind that its 50 % of his current output.
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Corrik's vote on FD is okay, but I don't think that goes anywhere until we see the promised content from FD.

Also happy birthday FD!

htaeD posted...

I suppose though the downside would be the increased chance in outing scum
hmm

htaeD posted...

*outing townpower

Weird mind fart there.

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Starting games at midnight is bad. How am I supposed to be cute and catty when I'm already passing out for the day?

Didn't Tony make weird/check in posts a lot on day 1 in the previous game? I do not really see why this one stands out in comparison. It's also pretty similar to a post FD made in Blade's game. I feel like there's nothing to read out of it except that he hasn't posted much overall yet.

The difference in Plum and my responses to the millers are mildly interesting. There was a nonsensical passivity from him about it, like he didn't really care.

In PW Mafia we had heavily considered faking or joking about miller early and Puns was on that team. Han was also there. My immediate feeling was that Puns decided to play cute this time after getting destroyed in PW.

Have not had the time to really get everything in my head yet but will tonight.

My impression is that Leo put Tony next on the list because he's being slightly flippant in his excitement to follow through with his plan. There's no way it's supposed to be a serious set up for consecutive lynches. Does he have this much charisma out of the gate as scum?

Regardless of Leo, I like when someone brings in a "personal" read on a player they know well, and i trust that enough to support it. In thi's case, Puns' case on Plum

##Vote: Plum
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(For reference he played day 1 really bad, was scanned night 1, and murdered day 2)

Panthera posted...

Sultan how do you feel about the other people who voted Plum, since those look more likely to be bandwagon votes than Leo's vote?

I mean Leo still seems the most scummy to me
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