Board 8 > Chris Music Mafia Topic 1: Dreams and Nightmares.

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htaeD
08/04/18 5:00:46 PM
#201:


Leafeon13N posted...
turbopuns2 posted...
Leafeon13N posted...
I am more than mildly confused.


I believe he's implying that he just wants to keep Leo in the game because having friends in the game makes it more fun.


Wow. That's just strange and dumb tbh.


Sounds like something a newcomer would say.

Plum, whats your take on all these votes on your person?
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:01:02 PM
#202:


htaeD posted...
taking from my last scumgame I can agree with Leo
scum gets away with a lot because town always limits itself to a few players each day

and by the time Mylo comes around, they are too lazy or tired out to broaden their scopes.


noted to remember.

htaeD posted...
on that note
Might as well!

##Vote: Plum

Though I also feel like making a mountain out of Zam, despite the usual 'oh he is just Zam'.


I'm trying to change that.TheSultanOfSlam posted...
##vote leo

That is a bandwagon vote of I've ever seen one you must be scumm


bandwagoning while bad, isn't proof of scum, though I'll be watching leo a little more.turbopuns2 posted...
Of course I'm "serious". plum is a player I've always been somewhat in tune with and I think I'm onto something. After years of playing mafia though, I finally learned how to not drive a point into the ground when it's objectively not a very thorough argument. Just say it and be done with it. So I am glad that Leo is adding that "oomph" to the lynch to give it more support without trying to fabricate some impossible amount of confidence in the accuracy of the lynch based on minimal content (literally one plum post).

I'm also grateful to death and Han, though I award them no town points yet.


this looks scummy as hell, scum would use that more then town.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Still voting Leo he just seems off


care to explain this sultan?

Corrik posted...
htaeD posted...
Corrik always does the percentage thing
it never makes sense

Sure it does.

5/16
5/21
6/22

If I asked you the chances I would be scum in 3 games in a row with this breakdown, it would be

2% or a 1/50 chance.

So, yeah, there is a 2% chance I would roll scum in all 3 games in a row.

However, since I already rolled scum in those both those games already, my odds of rolling scum this game are 27.3%, but bigger picture it is 2% for all three.


math hurts corrik, but you are right, except you for got to factor in all three games

(at post 114)
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benjamin3740
08/04/18 5:01:59 PM
#203:


ScareChan posted...
Crescent-Moon posted...
Starting games at midnight is bad. How am I supposed to be cute and catty when I'm already passing out for the day?

Didn't Tony make weird/check in posts a lot on day 1 in the previous game? I do not really see why this one stands out in comparison. It's also pretty similar to a post FD made in Blade's game. I feel like there's nothing to read out of it except that he hasn't posted much overall yet.

The difference in Plum and my responses to the millers are mildly interesting. There was a nonsensical passivity from him about it, like he didn't really care.

In PW Mafia we had heavily considered faking or joking about miller early and Puns was on that team. Han was also there. My immediate feeling was that Puns decided to play cute this time after getting destroyed in PW.

Have not had the time to really get everything in my head yet but will tonight.

##unvote
##vote: crescent


Already worried about her presentation is huge red flag

Yes, that's what I was getting at with my question for her.

Also Crescent, what is it that made you decide to"ISO" Plum or target him in particular? Because I just get the impression you felt you had to say something about him because he was getting votes and you quickly needed to give yourself a stance on him.
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benjamin3740
08/04/18 5:03:51 PM
#204:


Plum could you respond to Puns' accusation of you in particular?
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 5:04:05 PM
#205:


turbopuns2 posted...
Wow, I just got accused of "crap thinking", by Alakazam.


Alright I feel like this post was a bit harsh. So, sorry. But, I think there are some things wrong with your opinion.

First, what I did is not "training". What I did is called voting. I was the first person to vote plum.

Second, you're flat out wrong that applying pressure to people early never works. Flat out wrong.

Third, as for this:

Alakazamtrainer posted...
stating it so factually makes you believe that it's true without much supporting evidence.


Uh, yeah, I do believe it's true, which is why I voted. You think I say things first and then think them second?
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:10:21 PM
#206:


turbopuns2 posted...
MZero11 posted...
I've been scum 3 times is a row... more than once ,>_>


Yep.

This is why having a grasp on probability and statistics is good. Everybody has an aunt or a grandma who smoked cigarettes for 65 years without dying from lung cancer.

To quote Crossfiyah (whoa throwback), "statistics mean very little when your sample size is 1."


good point on statistics

turbopuns2 posted...
TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Just seems odd to me like what?


What Leo is saying is absolutely true. A lot of newbie (and some experienced) town feel like putting your vote on someone who turns out to be town is UNFORGIVABLE and grounds for ETERNAL SHAME.

But that's just not how it works. What happens waaay too often is that all of town is very timid about voting because they just aren't _sure_ about it. Then before you know it the entire day phase has passed and town, who outnumber scum by a lot, have failed to apply pressure to a single person. Without pressure, we can't make accurate reads nearly as often.

So Leo's case for his vote is completely legit. That doesn't change if plum is town, nor does it change if Leo is mafia. The reasoning is good.


can be said about a lot of people.pjbasis posted...
masterplum posted...
I dont want any of this scum scan business where one of them is scanned guilty and says oh lol see I was telling the truth, or was scanned innocent and says oh lol I was lying,


I really don't get this part. Scum claiming miller scanned innocent? Lying non-miller town scanned innocent?


explain please.Panthera posted...
Good morning

That Plum post may have looked odd (who scans claimed millers?) but something else crosses my mind.

##Vote: Leo

Demanding activity and pressure is fine. However, demanding activity and pressure while outright stating your vote is arbitrary and based on nothing is another matter. How, my dear Leo, do you expect to create this amazing pressure that will get reactions from Plum when you straight up tell him your vote has no conviction behind it? Strikes me as trying to look like you're doing some good town work but overplaying your hand on how you describe the process - outside of games it's cool to talk about voting people just to see what happens, but in a game it doesn't contribute to actual scum hunting to tell your target you have no real reason for voting them, because that makes them far less likely to feel pressure from it.

As far as other people go, I like Zam so far. I think I like Puns as town (though I'm not sure I buy the miller claim). Zach only posted a few times but it was enough to get me thinking he might be scum.


I think Leo was trying to start more conversation more then anything, I wouldn't merritt a vote.

(at post 133)
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:16:55 PM
#207:


htaeD posted...
ins t the point to go after EVERYONE?


It is the point to go after every one... duh.HanOfTheNekos posted...
htaeD posted...
Hey sultan, do I know you from somewhere?

Also I dont feel like Leo was bandwagoning
His sentiments came across as genuine.

Also I wonder why Leo gets attention for it, but not me or Han.


And more people carried it.

Maybe Leo is Scum, and people like Sultan and Panth are bussing here?


I doubt it, I'm thinking it's more town attacking town.

turbopuns2 posted...
Even without the emoji, that tony post was a check-in post


that was my impression, at least he knows he's posted... fluff.htaeD posted...
EDumey posted...
htaeD posted...
ins t the point to go after EVERYONE?


silly me i thought the point was to go after scum. :O


To go after everyone to see whether they are town or not
Not to lynch them one by one.

I suppose though the downside would be the increased chance in outing scum
hmm


really death? point is to pressure and get reads and to go after everyone.

some thoughts at the end of page 3

I like Panthera a lot here, he's pushing convo on day 1. I also like death, despite him making a mountain out of a molehill.

I dislike the plum train, and the Leo counter train, I don't think either are going anywhere to be honest.

(end of page 3)
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:22:35 PM
#208:


Crescent-Moon posted...
masterplum posted...
I want PJ and Puns to clarify in no uncertain terms if they are or are not a miller.

I dont want any of this scum scan business where one of them is scanned guilty and says oh lol see I was telling the truth, or was scanned innocent and says oh lol I was lying,

This isnt a role like cop or doc where the uncertainty is potentially valuable. Scum isnt going to gain from knowing for sure if or if not either of you two are millers.

I will be gone most of the day, be back in the evening


Is this actually his only post? I just decided to iso plum. It did not take long.

This feels like fake-caring at best and "do we need to not shoot at you two" at worst.


to me it feels like a let's wait and see more then what you said.

EDumey posted...
aren't there only like 6 or 7 votes out of 22 on the table right now?


##Vote: Edumey

Third time I've seen something scummy from you, I let it pass twice but this is counting votes at its finest.

Corrik posted...
Red is scum


proof?

(at post 160)
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ScareChan
08/04/18 5:22:48 PM
#209:


I feel like we just had a big discussion about how what zam is doing is not helpful
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:28:25 PM
#210:


htaeD posted...
2. you must be crazy. Its only 9 PM here.

1. The Zam thing was more a molehill, like how Leo called Plums post a molehill to be made into a mountain.
His comment about 'is one of these miller claims a counterclaim" read as too pointless and obvious. As if he wanted to give input without being able to make it genuine.


+1 for death, again making decent points.

ScareChan posted...
Also happy birthday fd


Yes Happy Birthday FD

masterplum posted...
Oh this is interesting.

I am suspicious of the person who said they were going to iso me. Why do you need to iso a person 4 pages in? Why are you telling people you are isoing them?

Now who was that...


that's a very good point, however I think it was more of a you have only posted this type post.

turbopuns2 posted...
So plum, did you stop caring about the claims?


good question.

turbopuns2 posted...
Wow, I just got accused of "crap thinking", by Alakazam.


well that post was.

(end of page 4)
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htaeD
08/04/18 5:28:42 PM
#211:


We have that discussion every time

Cant even tell what Edumey's strike one and two are now
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htaeD
08/04/18 5:30:12 PM
#212:


+1 for death, again making decent points.

....
...

You realize said decent point leans on you being suspect, right?
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:32:57 PM
#213:


turbopuns2 posted...
turbopuns2 posted...
Wow, I just got accused of "crap thinking", by Alakazam.


Alright I feel like this post was a bit harsh. So, sorry. But, I think there are some things wrong with your opinion.

First, what I did is not "training". What I did is called voting. I was the first person to vote plum.

Second, you're flat out wrong that applying pressure to people early never works. Flat out wrong.

Third, as for this:

Alakazamtrainer posted...
stating it so factually makes you believe that it's true without much supporting evidence.


Uh, yeah, I do believe it's true, which is why I voted. You think I say things first and then think them second?


well it was, and you should be ashamed thinking like that. as for the whole stating as fact thing, it's been proven that people will defend themselves till they are utterly wrong, when stating it that way... a better way would be to form it as an opinion rather then state it as fact.
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:34:00 PM
#214:


ScareChan posted...
I feel like we just had a big discussion about how what zam is doing is not helpful


would you rather I just posted random thoughts then?
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 5:37:23 PM
#215:


No we would rather you just read the game through fully and then filter down your posts to like, two paragraphs of pertinent thoughts, rather than filling up the thread with comments like "good question" well after the fact when it adds little or no substance to the game. The long series of walls with not much substance muddies up the topic.
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htaeD
08/04/18 5:37:24 PM
#216:


You could try it like I do, and take the notes in wordpad or something, with less quotes.

And then repost whatever is relevant in the long run.
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:37:24 PM
#217:


EDumey posted...
"I don't like when scum forces town-town lynches"

"Let's put a bunch of votals on a stated arbitrary target"

##Vote: Leo

I agree with you in theory Leo. Much better in a large game for players to use votes liberally to apply pressure. I just like when that pressure is based on actual reason. :)


strike 1, he was at best flip flopping on his opinion here.

EDumey posted...
Leo3Leo3Leo posted...
Wow, I'm more persuasive than I thought if Death is going to vote before the very last minute of a day. See, this crusade is already providing delicious information acorns for town squirrels to munch on. And I guess Puns was serious so maybe this isn't even making a mountain out of a molehill.

The Inquisition

1. Plum
2. Chaos Tony (if Plum is not a witch)

Plenty of room on the wagon. Don't be shy, hop on! This is a 22 player game, four people is a tiny drop in the bucket. If Plum is scum, he gets ignored until he single handedly wins the game. He's a dangerous scum because he has no scruples. He tugged my heartstrings once and RIPPED MY HEART OUT in Visual Novel Mafia 2. And if he does well, he's a formidable town player two. He's a "good analysis, poor charisma" type player. So going after him first is win/win.


also this post. setting up a second target for virtually no reason other than being asked to.

driving conversation on day one is one thing, setting up a plan to target people without logic is another. much more confident with a leo push here.

strike 2, again he's contradicting himself, by saying he likes the drive of convo, but says we shouldn't target someone... which is the point a lot of times of driving convo and the reason being driving convo
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:38:45 PM
#218:


htaeD posted...
+1 for death, again making decent points.

....
...

You realize said decent point leans on you being suspect, right?


your opinions don't equal mine, I may agree with you, but not your final argument.
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Alakazamtrainer
08/04/18 5:39:41 PM
#219:


turbopuns2 posted...
No we would rather you just read the game through fully and then filter down your posts to like, two paragraphs of pertinent thoughts, rather than filling up the thread with comments like "good question" well after the fact when it adds little or no substance to the game. The long series of walls with not much substance muddies up the topic.


at least there's substance to the my process not half assed attempts at it.
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masterplum
08/04/18 5:42:27 PM
#220:


turbopuns2 posted...
So plum, did you stop caring about the claims?


I mean, no? But if nobody else is going to pressure it, then it isnt a big enough hill to die on
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:45:24 PM
#221:


Plum why did you envision a scenario of a Miller claim getting scanned?
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:47:13 PM
#222:


You went so far as to insinuate a miller claim could get scanned innocent!
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masterplum
08/04/18 5:47:24 PM
#223:


htaeD posted...
Leafeon13N posted...
turbopuns2 posted...
Leafeon13N posted...
I am more than mildly confused.


I believe he's implying that he just wants to keep Leo in the game because having friends in the game makes it more fun.


Wow. That's just strange and dumb tbh.


Sounds like something a newcomer would say.

Plum, whats your take on all these votes on your person?


Whatever.

The good thing about life experience is that it makes things like this not important. Wouldnt be the first time I got lynched day one if I get lynched and its early enough that things can swing pretty dramatically so that isnt even certain.

By the way, I dont like how Alakazam is defending me
totally would vote alakazam if I wasnt voting crescent

benjamin3740 posted...
Plum could you respond to Puns' accusation of you in particular?


Referring to the scanning innocent thing? I was getting ready to leave and didnt think that part through. Only the guilty part matters obv.
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 5:47:33 PM
#224:


Anyway as for the game.

Notes:

-plum didn't address the point raised against him at all, not even in passing

-plum didn't follow up on his initial request for PJ and myself to confirm our claims, not even in passing

-a couple people have defended plum but I don't think anyone gave a reason for doing so

-I too share the misgivings about crescent. With regard to the bit about me claiming miller, there were too many words used with supporting reasoning which left much to be desired. Her line of thought about how I chose to "get cute" or whatever based on the last game I played doesn't jive with me. Like I can't use her reasoning to reach her conclusion.
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 5:48:05 PM
#225:


these plum ninjas are getting out of hand
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Panthera
08/04/18 5:51:26 PM
#226:


PJ, how do you feel about Puns claiming miller after you instead of doing the first post claim routine like you did?

Zam is probably town here.

Is Corrik even playing? Because it sure doesn't feel like it
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:52:04 PM
#227:


Paranoid theory, turbo is scum counterclaiming after seeing another claim because why not
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:52:35 PM
#228:


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Panthera
08/04/18 5:53:25 PM
#229:


masterplum posted...
The good thing about life experience is that it makes things like this not important. Wouldnt be the first time I got lynched day one if I get lynched and its early enough that things can swing pretty dramatically so that isnt even certain.


This feels like kind of an odd response

Plum, you don't want to lynch Leo today because you like him for reasons not pertaining to scuminess. So what are your feelings on Leo that do pertain to scuminess?
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Dark Young Link
08/04/18 5:53:51 PM
#230:


Votals (As of # 225)

[5] - Plum - Puns, Leo, Death, Han, Ben
[3] - Leo - Sultan, Panthera, EDumey
[2] - Crescent - Scare, Plum
[1] - FD - Corrik
[1] - Edumey - Zam
[0] - Corrik - (Scare)

With 22 alive it takes 12 to lynch. Day ends 10:00 PM EDT Sunday, or roughly 28 hours and 8 minutes from now.
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:54:01 PM
#231:


Panthera posted...
PJ, how do you feel about Puns claiming miller after you instead of doing the first post claim routine like you did?


Depends on his response.
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Corrik
08/04/18 5:54:22 PM
#232:


I'm protection don't kill me. I'm nas. Later.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 5:54:51 PM
#233:


Ooh I got votes

Curiously neither of them so much as either commented on anything I had actually said and focused on the most trivial sentence.

Scare conjuring up a reason to vote me while ignoring my content is a pretty big red flag

See Scare I can do it too~
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 5:55:36 PM
#234:


turbopuns2 posted...
Anyway as for the game.

Notes:

-plum didn't address the point raised against him at all, not even in passing

-plum didn't follow up on his initial request for PJ and myself to confirm our claims, not even in passing

-a couple people have defended plum but I don't think anyone gave a reason for doing so

-I too share the misgivings about crescent. With regard to the bit about me claiming miller, there were too many words used with supporting reasoning which left much to be desired. Her line of thought about how I chose to "get cute" or whatever based on the last game I played doesn't jive with me. Like I can't use her reasoning to reach her conclusion.


Anyone who reads the PW scumboard should be able to reach the same conclusion.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 5:57:56 PM
#235:


Also Turbo is scum you are welcome and we can meow later.

##Vote: Turbopuns

Not sure if Scare is just being bad or not though.
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pjbasis
08/04/18 5:59:14 PM
#236:


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masterplum
08/04/18 5:59:40 PM
#237:


Panthera posted...
masterplum posted...
The good thing about life experience is that it makes things like this not important. Wouldnt be the first time I got lynched day one if I get lynched and its early enough that things can swing pretty dramatically so that isnt even certain.


This feels like kind of an odd response

Plum, you don't want to lynch Leo today because you like him for reasons not pertaining to scuminess. So what are your feelings on Leo that do pertain to scuminess?


I value my time enough that I am making no effort in reading him today on a day I refuse to lynch him. Tomorrow I will form an opinion on him. Alternatively if it looks like he is a likely Lynch I will start reading him to see if I can defend him.

Let me expand a bit on why I am doing this.

1. Getting lynched day 1 sucks
2. I like Leo
3. Day 1 lynches are very rarely successful because mafia has massively more info than town.

So based on this, the chance that Leo has the most votes end of D1 and is scum is extrodinarily low. If he is scum there is a very good chance the 6 scum votes will steer the Lynch elsewhere. So the odds are that if he has the most votes he is town.

So lets say there is a 80% chance he is town. (Just like there is an 80% chance any player is town) I just refuse to Lynch Leo day 1 with those odds.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 5:59:52 PM
#238:


Though what bugs me about Scare is this is probably the least concerned I've ever been about my appearance in a game or I never would've written that sentence to begin with

Though Scare as town has grievously misread me before so it's not a giveaway or anything.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:02:07 PM
#239:


pjbasis posted...
You think he could counterclaim as scum?


He didn't "counterclaim" and has yet to commit to his claim. We also almost counterclaimed Corrik in PW.

When I gave the reason of "When I was recently scum with Turbo, we talked about fake miller claims and he directly said he wanted to try it once". That's why I want to stick him to a miller or not miller claim now.

I was more or less ignored when I asked him to commit to his miller claim one way or another. Why does town try to bush this off?
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EDumey
08/04/18 6:03:24 PM
#240:


Crescent-Moon posted...
the least concerned I've ever been about my appearance in a game or I never would've written that sentence to begin with


I don't agree with Scare's "red flag" to begin with, but this sentence is silly.
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pjbasis
08/04/18 6:04:21 PM
#241:


turbopuns2 posted...
Miller doesn't act to the sole detriment of town! It increases the likelihood town cop scans actual scum. Now there is some detriment, but it's not sole detriment.


If he was fakeclaiming I figured he wouldn't say something like this
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 6:04:50 PM
#242:


Crescent-Moon posted...
Anyone who reads the PW scumboard should be able to reach the same conclusion.


I suggested that a specific member of our team claim miller, based specifically on that player's mafia role. The plan in that case would have been to immediately claim it.

Now.

How exactly does that translate to "puns is scum who did not claim miller immediately but decided to later just to be cute"

Where is the logical bridge to connect these two completely unrelated scenarios?
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:05:52 PM
#243:


EDumey posted...
Crescent-Moon posted...
the least concerned I've ever been about my appearance in a game or I never would've written that sentence to begin with


I don't agree with Scare's "red flag" to begin with, but this sentence is silly.


If you've ever played with me before you'd understand. I'm basically playing this game with a significantly more natural personality than I've ever played one with before. That's the experiment I intended to run back in PW.

There's essentially no chance I'd have ever said a line like that as either alignment in a past game. It's strictly null. I feel like Scare should know this, but Scare completely botched metaing me on character in a game once before.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:07:07 PM
#244:


turbopuns2 posted...
Crescent-Moon posted...
Anyone who reads the PW scumboard should be able to reach the same conclusion.


I suggested that a specific member of our team claim miller, based specifically on that player's mafia role. The plan in that case would have been to immediately claim it.

Now.

How exactly does that translate to "puns is scum who did not claim miller immediately but decided to later just to be cute"

Where is the logical bridge to connect these two completely unrelated scenarios?


I said I thought you were more likely scum. I didn't say you were scum.

Then I said because I'm paranoid, and because I have a basis for which you've said you'd like to claim miller as scum, I wanted to stick you to miller or not miller asap.

So why are you dodging it?

The logic is pretty direct.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:08:17 PM
#245:


And that would, of course, have been your last scumgame, when you said you wanted to claim miller as scum.

So it's directly connected to this game, if you were in fact scum. All I asked was for you to stop hedging, and instead I got evasiveness. It's the evasiveness that looks scummier than anything else.
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 6:09:02 PM
#246:


turbopuns2 posted...
I suggested that a specific member of our team claim miller, based specifically on that player's mafia role. The plan in that case would have been to immediately claim it.


Also worth pointing out that I myself chose not to claim miller specifically because of the mafia role I had. (kidnapper) In no way was it ever supposed to be an off-the-cuff thing.
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pjbasis
08/04/18 6:09:47 PM
#247:


Crescent-Moon posted...
I said I thought you were more likely scum. I didn't say you were scum.


This is a mafia game guys. Picking at someones words for their certainty is scumshit.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:10:23 PM
#248:


turbopuns2 posted...
turbopuns2 posted...
I suggested that a specific member of our team claim miller, based specifically on that player's mafia role. The plan in that case would have been to immediately claim it.


Also worth pointing out that I myself chose not to claim miller specifically because of the mafia role I had. (kidnapper) In no way was it ever supposed to be an off-the-cuff thing.


It's worth pointing out that you directly said you wanted to try it in a future game. This is a future game.

Still dodging.
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Crescent-Moon
08/04/18 6:11:42 PM
#249:


pjbasis posted...
Crescent-Moon posted...
I said I thought you were more likely scum. I didn't say you were scum.


This is a mafia game guys. Picking at someones words for their certainty is scumshit.


I dislike being misquoted. Especially when he's doing everything he possibly can to avoid committing to a claim based on an indirect but valid argument.
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turbopuns2
08/04/18 6:13:38 PM
#250:


Crescent-Moon posted...
I wanted to stick you to miller or not miller asap.

So why are you dodging it?


Frankly it's partially because nothing else has happened in the game to generate much discussion. The entire 5 vote plum train spawned from me claiming. Then a 3 vote leo train spawned from that.

It's also partially because plum is still half dodging my initial point against him to begin with (which was him telling me and PJ to clarify)
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