Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

I feel like Joker vs Yu would actually be closer than people think. I could see P4vP5 and Joker vs Yu going either way. Id vote both P4 things there. Im probably the biggest Persona nut here and I thought P5 was pretty disappointing

Big Bob posted...

Eh, I'd give Frog a 95% chance over Monokuma, because I still remember how Danganronpa won that Honest Trailers contest on Youtube last year. Different site, different demographic, I know. I'm just saying, don't underestimate the power of obsessive fanbases.

I hope we don't get invaded by the DR fanbase

that sounds like true despair
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swordz9 posted...

I feel like Joker vs Yu would actually be closer than people think. I could see P4vP5 and Joker vs Yu going either way. Id vote both P4 things there. Im probably the biggest Persona nut here and I thought P5 was pretty disappointing

I kinda agree with you. P5 was not as incredible as most people seem to think. I mean it was still a great game but P4 still has it beat i reckon.
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Good question on Snake keeping up his strength, but to be fair it's probably just the other Noble Niners fading into irrelevancy.
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If Joker ever did become a big deal here hed easily be the biggest case of pic factor making a difference though. I mean Phantom Thieves Joker looks cool and casual clothes Ren looks like a goober

swordz9 posted...

I feel like Joker vs Yu would actually be closer than people think. I could see P4vP5 and Joker vs Yu going either way. Id vote both P4 things there. Im probably the biggest Persona nut here and I thought P5 was pretty disappointing

I mean it doesn't matter what you personally think about P5. Your Persona opinions aren't really representative of the fanbase in general from what I've seen anyway...!

I think P4 is better too but P5 is more popular here. I have zero question about that.
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Also the one thing that could help Pokemon out here is registered votes counting double because as we've seen over the years Board 8 (and the board vote in general) loves Pokemon to an unhealthy degree

it'll really help Phoenix too because man is he gonna make Chris Redfield look bad out of the gate
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I would maybe be worried about a Monokuma rally, but I think I think Frog is a little too strong for him to get knocked out by an early rally. Which is a shame, because I think Monokuma has a chance if he had some better bracket placement.
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Eh, I think Monokuma (and DR in general) will be pretty weak. This site doesn't care about visual novels. 999 and VLR were two of the weakest things in the 2015 contest.
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The registered double thing is what cemented Phoenix over Chris for me (and from my understanding many RE fans don't really care about Chris), and I actually went ahead and took Phoenix over Ike

I'm not sure how popular that second pick's going to be but I see every reason for Phoenix to be better and Ike to be worse
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The one thing about Phoenix/Ike is that Fire Emblem has a really good board vote. It's one of the best we have. Phoenix's is better, but Ike is no slouch.

Kid Icarus had a fantastic board vote in 2013, too, strangely. Not that it matters since it has no characters this year.
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It's 11 years old but i still have this saved.

https://imgur.com/0QvqwIO
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(7) King Dedede
(10) Revolver Ocelot

The last time we saw Dedede, he was finishing dead last behind Pit (as part of the aforementioned Brawl Deboost of 2008). I'm honestly kind of confused as to why he was chosen as a Returner in the NRT this year. Master Hand I get because of the lulz, but I don't get Dedede's inclusion. He can't hold a candle to Kirby and probably not to Meta Knight either. We make fun of Ocelot and for good reason (ReSTALLver Lossalot, am I right?), but at least when he chokes, it's against decent characters, like Pac-Man, Jill, or Red. Heck, he beat Wily in the Villains Contest, and I'd take him over Dedede, too! I mean, I can't give him supreme confidence because Ocelot is weird, but I feel very confident in him here.

Winner: Ocelot
Odds: 85%

(2) Mega Man X
(15) Isabelle

Smash Ultimate boost. Isabelle wins. Contest over. Seriously though, I think Mega Man X has been a little overvalued here. Some people thought he could be on the level of Mega Man Classic, but I haven't seen much evidence of that. Even so, he did beat Ryu in CBIX (although that was part of the Draven overkill fiasco, so who knows how valid those results are), so he's pretty strong regardless, just probably not at Noble Nine levels. He won't have any problems here.

Winner: Mega Man X
Odds: 100%

Division 8

(1) Sephiroth
(16) Albert Wesker

Fun Fact: Wesker's lone win is still over Luca Blight in the Villains Contest. He's had some bad draws over the years (like getting stuck in the same match as Leon Kennedy in CBIX, which was dumb), although he still failed to beat Lloyd Irving and Ken Masters. He could've won with a better matchup here. I think SBAllen purposely gave Sephiroth an easy path to compensate for not getting a bye to the Double Elimination phase because even if he has dropped significantly, nobody here should really threaten him barring a rally.

Winner: Sephiroth
Odds: 100%

(8) Richter Belmont
(9) Captain Falcon

This will be a fun match, but only because of all the memes we'll see on the board that day. I doubt Richter would be worth much anyway, but Captain Falcon neuters any Smash hype he may have garnered.

Winner: Captain Falcon
Odds: 95%

(5) Amaterasu
(12) Draven

WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DOGFAQS. I've been reading CBIX Stats Topics, and I had totally forgotten that we had a long running gag of DogFAQs after Missile beat Kerrigan (legitimately hilarious result, by the way). Even if Draven is more popular now because of what he did in CBIX, I doubt it'll matter. He's going to be significantly anti-voted by registered users, which is now worth double! I'm actually looking forward to what the board vote looks like here because it's gonna be hilarious. The League of Legends Reddit doesn't allow rallies anymore after CBIX, too, so he can't really count on that either. I guess I'll give Draven a nonzero chance on principle, but I don't see him winning.

Winner: Amaterasu
Odds: 95%

(4) Lara Croft
(13) Metal Man

Congrats to HaRRicH for getting Metal Man in. We'll finally get to see what an individual Robot Master is worth...which I'd wager isn't much. Individual Mega Man games are kinda weak here, so I think when you narrow anything from the series down to one specific thing, the result won't be good. Mega Man and Zero are popular as a whole, not because of any one specific game. Lara's new game seems to be flopping, but come on, she didn't lose to Chop Chop Master Onion or Ryo Hazuki in 2002 either!

Winner: Lara
Odds: 100%
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Ok so reading this i've scaled back my Monika expectations abit, but still have her getting to the finals of her group but no further.

will be a real feelsbadman if she does lose to Wario though.
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Best part of this topic is being reminded that at one point in time, one of these contests featured an entrant called Chop Chop Master Onion. What the hell is a Chop Chop Master Onion.
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Panthera posted...

Best part of this topic is being reminded that at one point in time, one of these contests featured an entrant called Chop Chop Master Onion. What the hell is a Chop Chop Master Onion.

From parappa the rapper did you not own a playstation my guy that game was amazing
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(3) Ryu
(14) Lloyd Irving

Ryu has been called "Mr. Consistency" over the years for good reason. You know what you're going to get from him every year. He's a high midcarder, always has been, and probably always will be. I guess he might be a little stronger now because of Smash, but either way, he ain't losin' to Lloyd.

Winner: Ryu
Odds: 100%

(6) Commander Shepard
(11) King K. Rool

If Dedede was proof of the Brawl Deboost of 2008, King K. Rool will be proof of the Ultimate Deboost of 2018. He was probably worthless before getting included in Ultimate, and he's probably not much better now. Diddy was still weak even after being included in Brawl, and there's no way K. Rool beats him, much less Shepard.

Winner: Shepard (Wrex)
Odds: 100%

(7) Ellie
(10) KOS-MOS

Oh hey, this is kind of sort of like my very first Fourpack of Fun this year because I put Ellie and Aqua in it. KOS-MOS has always been a low midcarder or high fodder. She put up a good number on Vincent in 2013 (which people took as the first sign of his demise). Ellie might be worth something as we get closer to TLOU2. TLOU is worth more than any Xenosaga game, but characters =/= games and all that. I said this earlier, but I do think that hotness kinda matters when the match is between two females (since we're 97% males here and all that). There's no real contest here.

Winner: KOS-MOS
Odds: 70%

(2) Aqua
(15) Quiet

Gonna be honest: I kinda like Quiet here. I don't think I'll pick her, but as I just said, TJF might matter here and very few characters will outdo Quiet on that front. Plus, I'm not entirely sure how well people know Aqua. Birth by Sleep is on PS3 and PS4 now, but it was a PSP-exclusive for years. I know the hardcore KH fans know her, but does the casual voter know her? I'd wager the casual voter knows Quiet a little better because, while MGSV may have been a disappointment to many, it was a very hyped game. I could talk myself into Quiet before lockdown because I don't think it's a bad pick. Aqua should win, but I won't be shocked if she doesn't.

Winner: Aqua
Odds: 70%

And that's it for round 1! Round 2 and beyond later tonight.
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Panthera posted...

Best part of this topic is being reminded that at one point in time, one of these contests featured an entrant called Chop Chop Master Onion. What the hell is a Chop Chop Master Onion.

Kick! Punch! Its all in the mind!

Wreath posted...

Panthera posted...

Best part of this topic is being reminded that at one point in time, one of these contests featured an entrant called Chop Chop Master Onion. What the hell is a Chop Chop Master Onion.

From parappa the rapper did you not own a playstation my guy that game was amazing

I owned a playstation but for better or worse I can't say I ever played a game with rapping onions in it
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Panthera posted...

Wreath posted...

Panthera posted...

Best part of this topic is being reminded that at one point in time, one of these contests featured an entrant called Chop Chop Master Onion. What the hell is a Chop Chop Master Onion.

From parappa the rapper did you not own a playstation my guy that game was amazing

I owned a playstation but for better or worse I can't say I ever played a game with rapping onions in it

One of those so bad it's good type of games
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WarriorFenix posted...

Ok so reading this i've scaled back my Monika expectations abit, but still have her getting to the finals of her group but no further.

will be a real feelsbadman if she does lose to Wario though.

I don't think she has a prayer against Zero (or whoever else makes it that far), but if she gets past Wario there's no reason she doesn't get past the second round too. Not exactly a road through hell she's looking at
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Janus5k posted...

I hope we don't get invaded by the DR fanbase

that sounds like true despair

This is worst-case-scenario fanbase invasion

Ranticoot posted...

The registered double thing is what cemented Phoenix over Chris for me (and from my understanding many RE fans don't really care about Chris), and I actually went ahead and took Phoenix over Ike

I'm not sure how popular that second pick's going to be but I see every reason for Phoenix to be better and Ike to be worse

There's not much reason to pick Ike over Phoenix unless you think Ike is noticeably stronger than Marth (he isn't)
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re: Mewtwo is a fraud, this will not be the contest to prove it, imo. I'm still of the idea that Pokemon will underperform significantly compared to its last showing. If nostalgia was fueling Pokemon, and we know it is because only Gen I has any strength worth discussing whatsoever, Pokemon will take a strong hit. You can't be nostalgic towards something that has become so ubiquitous. It's like how nobody is nostalgic for Mario. Sure you're nostalgic for Super Mario World, but Mario himself? No, not unless you don't play games at all.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Also the one thing that could help Pokemon out here is registered votes counting double because as we've seen over the years Board 8 (and the board vote in general) loves Pokemon to an unhealthy degree

And pokemon has active boards. Full of trolls and obnoxious kids.

I'm keeping my bracket changes on a txt so I don't have to delete half my bracket every time I make a change.

Which means I'll wait a while before changing away from my Dedede overestimation. And maybe deciding what the hell to do with Joker.

Actually. thinking on it, we might be seriously underselling the registered voter effect. It could be a big factor in some matches.
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I would like to see some data on how many unregistered voters there typically are in non-rallied contest matches. Do we have reason to think the non-rallied matches this year would even have many non-registered voters to begin with?
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Surskit posted...

re: Mewtwo is a fraud, this will not be the contest to prove it, imo. I'm still of the idea that Pokemon will underperform significantly compared to its last showing. If nostalgia was fueling Pokemon, and we know it is because only Gen I has any strength worth discussing whatsoever, Pokemon will take a strong hit. You can't be nostalgic towards something that has become so ubiquitous. It's like how nobody is nostalgic for Mario. Sure you're nostalgic for Super Mario World, but Mario himself? No, not unless you don't play games at all.

I don't get why pokemon should be weaker because it was already supposed to be weaker in 2013, if you consider parameters of franchise age and lack of new games.

Since then nothing changed. We got a new pokemon gen which was about as liked as the previous one (liked by most, hated by some), we got Pokemon Go (which is probably irrelevant on gameFAQs) and... that's it. None of the pokemon characters should be weaker than in 2013 imo.

mnkboy907 posted...

I would like to see some data on how many unregistered voters there typically are in non-rallied contest matches. Do we have reason to think the non-rallied matches this year would even have many non-registered voters to begin with?

allen once told us registered users make up about a third of votes IIRC

Like, Pokemon has been in a limbo of "new games are okay but not amazing" for a while now. And it was already in that limbo in 2013.

I've got a feeling board 8 will sway some of the matches. Even a lot of the registered voters on this site don't care much for the contests when they're going on.
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Cant wait to see the double vote bad board vote for some stuff

STElNER posted...

mnkboy907 posted...

I would like to see some data on how many unregistered voters there typically are in non-rallied contest matches. Do we have reason to think the non-rallied matches this year would even have many non-registered voters to begin with?

allen once told us registered users make up about a third of votes IIRC

After posting it did occur to me that there could just be a lot of people voting who have accounts but simply aren't logged in.
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I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.

There wasn't any excitement in 2013 either. Gen 6 was a huge meh.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.

There wasn't any excitement in 2013 either. Gen 6 was a huge meh.

I don't see 2013 as a result of anything ongoing in the Pokemon fanbase itself like a specific game or anything, but rather earlier Pokemon generations (mostly RBY with a little bit towards GSC as well) shifting to a game people were really nostalgic about that they just weren't beforehand.
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i legit thought aqua was this dude during the entire nomination period:



Quiet > Aqua

(that probably won't happen tho)
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This is a fantastic topic from one of the best experts on the board about our contests.

You're doing us a serious service here, Leon. Thank you so much.

I can't think of anything where I can say "You're dead wrong" thus far.
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Also, I know this is going to sound like sacrilege from me but...

Sephiroth could lose to Ryu.
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extha has been replaced by a replicant
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i just changed my pick to ryu > sephiroth because of extha's comment

that could be his plan all along but it's a good one

his support of sephiroth has been unshakable for years
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.

There wasn't any excitement in 2013 either. Gen 6 was a huge meh.

I don't see 2013 as a result of anything ongoing in the Pokemon fanbase itself like a specific game or anything, but rather earlier Pokemon generations (mostly RBY with a little bit towards GSC as well) shifting to a game people were really nostalgic about that they just weren't beforehand.

Sorry I don't understand, why were they only really nostalgic in 2013?

ZenOfThunder posted...

extha has been replaced by a replicant

lmao

Think about it though. If the slide has continued for FFVII/Square, Sephiroth is the most likely to be hit from it. Ryu has been in Smash.

And even if you get that pick wrong, Sephiroth could still lose in the first match of the legends bracket.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

extha has been replaced by a replicant

lmao

Think about it though. If the slide has continued for FFVII/Square, Sephiroth is the most likely to be hit from it. Ryu has been in Smash.

And even if you get that pick wrong, Sephiroth could still lose in the first match of the legends bracket.

Mario > Sephiroth is pretty reasonable.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.

There wasn't any excitement in 2013 either. Gen 6 was a huge meh.

I don't see 2013 as a result of anything ongoing in the Pokemon fanbase itself like a specific game or anything, but rather earlier Pokemon generations (mostly RBY with a little bit towards GSC as well) shifting to a game people were really nostalgic about that they just weren't beforehand.

Sorry I don't understand, why were they only really nostalgic in 2013?

Pokemon X/Y seemed like it would be a change, with 3D graphics, Mega Evolutions (2 of them for Mewtwo, something that certainly helped him), and such, and hype was big, hence the series overperforming that year. Only after release the impact lessened.
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igordebraga posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think Pokemon will be on a bit of downswing compared to past years with Pokemon Go having came and went, and there not being much excitement over the Let's Go games, but at the same time, I do think the big hitters being elite or close to elite is permanent, so Mewtwo and Pikachu are still very much threats to take their divisions, and it's hard to get that Draven/Mewtwo/Seph match out of my head, even if the parallels to Kirby/Seph are there in plain sight.

There wasn't any excitement in 2013 either. Gen 6 was a huge meh.

I don't see 2013 as a result of anything ongoing in the Pokemon fanbase itself like a specific game or anything, but rather earlier Pokemon generations (mostly RBY with a little bit towards GSC as well) shifting to a game people were really nostalgic about that they just weren't beforehand.

Sorry I don't understand, why were they only really nostalgic in 2013?

Pokemon X/Y seemed like it would be a change, with 3D graphics, Mega Evolutions (2 of them for Mewtwo, something that certainly helped him), and such, and hype was big, hence the series overperforming that year. Only after release the impact lessened.

Hmm you have a point.

My point was that gen 6 wasn't that hype after it got released (I like 7 more personally) but I guess at the time of the contest it was just coming out.

Gen 7 had a few cool stuff too but the internet wasn't that nuts about it.

ExThaNemesis posted...

Also, I know this is going to sound like sacrilege from me but...

Sephiroth could lose to Ryu.

Now that result would be strong evidence for a Smash boost!
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Man, Demyx in a contest would be amazing, even if he would be terrible fodder.

DANCE WATER DANCE

ExThaNemesis posted...

Also, I know this is going to sound like sacrilege from me but...

Sephiroth could lose to Ryu.

It would be one of the greatest upsets of all time if it happened. I'm all for it because I love Ryu.

KamikazePotato posted...

Actually. thinking on it, we might be seriously underselling the registered voter effect. It could be a big factor in some matches.

Yeah, this is honestly why I said before that it might be important to consider who the bracket favorite will be because everyone with a bracket is a registered account. Like Master Chief is going to have a massive bracket advantage because people never learn, and he might actually be stronger as a result of it. I don't know if that will matter beyond round 2 because most people's brackets are busted and there won't be any overwhelming favorites beyond that.

Until we get to the Double Elimination round where the Noble Niners will have the most brackets by default.
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Also, there is no one with a worse board vote than Sephiroth.

Those votes counting double have me seriously thinking about it.

I can't really pick Sephiroth to lose that soon, can I?
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Sephiroth doesn't really face anyone with an amazing board vote except for Captain Falcon, which will be good for him.

but if you all thought Falcon made Cloud look bad in 2010 hahahahaha oh boy just wait until THAT one
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