Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

GranzonEx posted...

NeoElfboy posted...

GranzonEx posted...

if this contest was held in r/gaming I'm pretty sure Link doesn't beat Kratos or 2B or Commander Shepard

If you're right, it says more about r/gaming than it does about us. Link is bigger than any of those characters on neutral ground pretty cleanly.

I say this as someone who doesn't personally care about Zelda that much.

your way of thinking is why you're on this site

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground

r/gaming is mostly young people, which makes a big difference. If you have gamers of all ages Zelda gets much stronger I think.
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pjbasis posted...

GranzonEx posted...

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground

Wouldn't a true neutral ground be like everyone in the world voting?

no that would be final destination no items Link only

there's 19 million subs and currently 44k active users browsing r/gaming

it's more neutral than gamefaqs and nintendoeverything if that's what you mean
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Mac Arrowny posted...

r/gaming is mostly young people, which makes a big difference. If you have gamers of all ages Zelda gets much stronger I think.

there's regularly tons of posts and reposts from people about their nostalgia or their experience with gaming with their small children
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I don't think anyone is claiming GameFAQs is neutral. Where else on the internet can you find a legitimate rivalry between Mario and Crono?
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Link isnt losing to 2B anywhere thats considered neutral.

It just means r/gaming skews really hardcore. Gamefaqs cant even be considered hardcore anymore, its just old gamers that largely fell out of it.
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2B is losing round 1
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GranzonEx posted...

your way of thinking is why you're on this site

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground

In no actual neutral ground would Link, protagonist of the Zelda series, which has sold nearly 100 million copies and is more critically acclaimed than that number would suggest, struggle with the likes of 2B or Shepard. I'm not sure how you can actually believe this.

Nintendo's plenty big everywhere. Bigger on GameFAQs? Yeah probably (in some cases, anyway - I'd imagine a character like Kirby is actually stronger if you did a random worldwide poll). But it's still pretty big in general.

Team Rocket Elite posted...

It's Mario that wins that one, right? Mario is already strong among hardcore voters. Once you start adding in voters that know fewer and fewer video game characters, Mario starts beasting more and more.

Yeah that sounds right honestly.
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Honestly I'm not expecting Board 8 to change too much. We control, what, a thousand votes at best? Even doubled, it's trivial for a rally to get a few thousand, and some of them have accounts here as well.
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FBike1 posted...

Honestly I'm not expecting Board 8 to change too much. We control, what, a thousand votes at best? Even doubled, it's trivial for a rally to get a few thousand, and some of them have accounts here as well.

We might be able to decide an already close vote is probably the thing. If there's a Draven-type rally this year, we'll just drowned out no matter what.
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LusterSoldier posted...

Squall is only slightly stronger than Zelda to begin with.

Squall's been more than "slightly" stronger than Zelda the last few contests. Keep in mind that Vincent crushed Zelda in 2007.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

It's Mario that wins that one, right? Mario is already strong among hardcore voters. Once you start adding in voters that know fewer and fewer video game characters, Mario starts beasting more and more.

I submit Pikachu for your consideration
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Anyway, it's time for ROUND 2!

Division 1

(1) Dante
(9) Lightning

I've seen some people clamoring about Lightning losing to Chloe the round before. I hope it doesn't happen (because Chloe suuuuuuuuucks), but there are worse long shot picks to make since it's only worth one point either way (barring a rally, of course, but that goes without saying). On natural strength, neither character stands a chance against Dante, especially now that DMC5 has put him back in the spotlight in a positive way after the big backlash DmC amassed.

Winner: Dante
Odds: 100%

(12) Chun-Li
(4) Ganondorf

Augh, Ganondorf beating a good character again. It hurts my heart. Chun-Li got nearly doubled by Bowser in 2005, and Ganondorf has probably always been stronger than him. Chunners also lost to Yuna in 2006 after Ganondorf beat Yuna easily in 2005. Pretty much every comparison favors Ganondorf (even if Spyro somehow wins in round 1).

Winner: Ganondorf
Odds: 100%

(3) Vivi
(11) Aya Brea

Man, few strong characters have an easier first two rounds than Vivi. Regardless of whether it's Aya or Sully, he should roll here. I'd take Narukami over either one of those, so whatever Vivi does in round 1, he'll probably go even higher in round 2.

Winner: Vivi
Odds: 100%

(7) Tidus
(2) Leon Kennedy

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2906-division-6-round-2-pikachu-tidus-leon-vivi

Leon has pretty much always been stronger than Tidus since his debut. I know Vivi was in that poll holding Tidus back, but Leon beat Vivi cleanly in round 1 by quite a bit, and that poll shows Tidus was weaker than Vivi. In 2010, Tidus lost to Sub-Zero, and Leon lost to Ryu (with a terrible RE Gaiden sprite, to boot). As good as Sub-Zero is, there's no doubt Ryu is better. Leon has the advantage here based on past results, so you're banking on something totally random or unforeseen for Tidus to win here.

Same thing if you're picking DK, who has lost twice to Vivi (by nearly the exact same amount six years apart). If you're picking an upset, it's not on the basis of past results. You're betting on Leon getting weaker (which is possible) or one of these guys boosting for no real reason. Not to mention, do you really trust Tidus or DK to score an unexpected upset? Fun Fact: Tidus has never made the third round, and DK only did once...back in the first contest.

Winner: Leon Kennedy
Odds: 85%

Division 2

(1) Zero
(8) Zidane Tribal

Zidane has looked pretty decent the last couple contests, but he hasn't shown a performance on the level of Zero yet. Now Zero has had some shaky performances in recent contests. He very nearly lost to Vivi in 2008, but Zidane is definitely weaker than Vivi, so that doesn't really help him. He rebounded and beat Rikku effortlessly in CBIX though, and Rikku has shown herself to be on Vivi's level in the past. I think Zidane can look respectable in defeat, but I think victory is a little too much to hope for here.

Winner: Zero
Odds: 85%
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Zero got that 1 seed for a reason.

Hes also in smash lol
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i've got my knuckles > zero and knuckles > wario miracle run all planned out

i need something to stand out from the pack

there's like a < 1% chance of it happening and i would not be surprised if Zidane beats him in round 1 but I gotta believe in something and it ain't gonna be santa claus (he already lost to link)
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LeonhartFour posted...

Squall's been more than "slightly" stronger than Zelda the last few contests. Keep in mind that Vincent crushed Zelda in 2007.

Sure, Vincent may have crushed Zelda in 2007, but that was during a time when FFVII was still very strong on the site. The 2007 contest was also 4-ways, which helps to limit the anti-vote problem that FFVII suffers from. FFVII in general has gotten much weaker since then and Zelda may very well be stronger now, especially coming off BotW.

FFVIII is very similar to FFVII with the anti-voting it suffers from. If Squall has gotten weaker in the same way FFVII characters have, that will put in him striking distance for Zelda to win the match with the help of the registered user bonus.
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(5) Noctis Lucis Caelum
(13) Wario

This is the first fourpack where you could make a strong argument for multiple characters winning it. I think if Noctis beats Master Hand without breaking a sweat, he's probably the favorite here (unless Monika got a crazy rally in round 1, of course). If he wins a close one or if Master Hand wins at all, I think Wario's the favorite. As bad as Wario tends to be in the face of Nintendo SFF, I can't imagine Master Hand being higher on the pecking order. If Just Monika is here, she probably wins against whoever she's facing for the reason mentioned above. I'll lean Noctis out of favoritism, but it's hard to feel confident in anyone here. I think Master Hand is the only one who doesn't have any real chance to win (barring something wonky).

Winner: Noctis
Odds: 35%

(3) Yoshi
(6) Velvet Crowe

I mentioned in the last post that few strong characters have an easier first two rounds than Vivi, but Yoshi's pretty close! No one else in this fourpack has a high ceiling. I think Yoshi is kind of overrated and has been for a while, but none of these characters can really expose him.

Winner: Yoshi
Odds: 100%

(7) Pikachu
(2) Kratos

Kratos has put up good performances against strong characters in the past. Perhaps the most notable example for the purposes of this match is the 45% he put up on Charizard in 2010. He's never really won a match like this though. On the other hand, Pikachu is probably the one recurring character I have no solid feel for in these contests. I have no clue how strong Pikachu really is. His results always end up getting obscured by SFF/LFF, Solid Snake sprites, save_us.rat, or whatever else. He could actually be the strongest Pokemon, and I wouldn't really bat an eye. Either way, I don't think Pikachu loses here.

Winner: Pikachu
Odds: 65%

Division 3

(1) Sora
(9) Pokemon Trainer Red

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue

That poll is why I'm scared to death of Sora getting upset here because that's an embarrassing loss. I think Kingdom Hearts III hype can help him rebound from the lull he's been in the last couple of contests. Red looked average against Ocelot and MMX in 2010, but then he went out and looked really good in CBIX (not to mention how great the Trainers looked as a combined force in Rivalry Rumble). I'm not sure what to make of that though, because like most Pokemon characters, Red got a really beneficial setup that allowed him to skate by on LFF and build momentum. I think Pokemon's domination in CBIX could have been a bit deceptive for that reason. I think Red's current strength is somewhere between what we saw in 2010 and 2013, but that might be enough to beat Sora if KH3 hasn't done much for him yet.

Winner: Sora
Odds: 55%

(12) Cecil Harvey
(4) Big Boss

Whoever wins between Cecil and Crash will probably lose fairly handily here. I said this with The Boss, but it applies even moreso here. MGS3 being the most popular MGS game now probably helps Big Boss. Even if he gets an old man pic (which hasn't happened since 2008, for what it's worth), I think he's too strong to lose here,

Winner: Big Boss
Odds: 90%
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Noctis is going to be Lightning-tier weak.
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Anagram posted...

Noctis is going to be Lightning-tier weak.

Maybe. I think he'll be stronger than Lightning because he doesn't have an outright hate base like she does. Like I said, I'm legitimately afraid he could lose to Master Hand. It's not out of the realm of possibility. His floor is pretty low, but I think he also has the highest ceiling of the four.

LusterSoldier posted...

Sure, Vincent may have crushed Zelda in 2007, but that was during a time when FFVII was still very strong on the site.

And Squall very narrowly lost to Vincent during that time when FFVII was still very strong on this site.

LusterSoldier posted...

FFVIII is very similar to FFVII with the anti-voting it suffers from. If Squall has gotten weaker in the same way FFVII characters have, that will put in him striking distance for Zelda to win the match with the help of the registered user bonus.

FFVII has been noticeably declining since 2008. Squall has shown no real signs of decline. He's not tied at the hip with FFVII.
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Does Noctis beat Kuja?
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

Does Noctis beat Kuja?

I think he does. I still don't think anyone cares about Kuja. Zidane/Kuja was pretty mediocre in Rivalry Rumble for whatever that's worth.

I'd tend to lean hero over villain if it's a tossup here, too.
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I'm not scared of Master Hand (and I picked Hand to win back in the day). Melee's enduring popularity is in its competitive scene, which Master Hand is nowhere near. Plus, Kuja didn't show up until a good ways into FFIX, so everyone overestimated him.
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(3) Alucard
(6) Yuna

If Peach is here, I think Yuna wins easily. I don't think those two are on the same level. Yuna's put up some solid performances over the years. I think Alucard would have to beat Peach pretty handily for me to consider him the favorite here for that reason. He needs to show me that he's not still declining. Not to say he can't win here because while I think Yuna's pretty solid, she's not a juggernaut or anything. I think she's the favorite in this fourpack though. I'm sure some people will call for a Smash boost because Alucard is an Assist Trophy in Ultimate or something. Nintendo just needs to go ahead and put literally everyone in Smash so we can stop having these discussions.

Winner: Yuna
Odds: 50%

(7) Kefka
(15) Bomberman

Whoever wins round 1 between Kefka/L-Block wins here no contest. The question is who wins that round 1 match, and the answer is still WHO KNOWS. Or maybe Kefka does something insane like beat L-Block and then lose to Bomberman as a master class trolling performance.

Winner: Kefka??!?!?!?!?!?!?
Odds: 50%????!!!!

Division 4

(1) 2B
(8) Shadow the Hedgehog

I think 2B's potential ceiling is higher than either Shadow or Ness, but on the same note, her floor is lower. If you want to hedge your bets, 2B is the "safe" pick here because you know for sure she's going to be here and maybe Shadow or Ness won't. Well, I'm probably in the vast minority in thinking Shadow actually has a chance here, but who knows! I don't trust either one of them in a big match though, so either way, I think 2B is the favorite. Plus, she's the 1 seed, so that means she'll have BRACKETS in her favor for sure.

Winner: 2B
Odds: 55%

(12) Charizard
(4) Bowser

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3845-heart-division-final-bowser-vs-charizard

There are a couple of reasons to distrust that result. Charizard possibly had a bandwagon effect going on at that point (he definitely did next round when he got 46.5% on Mario). Look at his prediction percentages for that contest: They're absurdly low. Board 8 believed in the Zard, but the rest of the site didn't. That's a solid formula for an underdog bandwagon in the later rounds. Also, this match happened on the release date of HG/SS, so that could've had an effect on the outcome.

All that to say that while I think Charizard at "base strength" in 2010 loses to Bowser, he could still potentially win now. He did very nearly lose to Zelda in CBIX and did lose to Mega Man despite Zero being in the poll, so he's not as good as people thought he was. That being said, he still could've been stronger in 2013 despite being overrated in 2010. We've seen it happen before (like Ganondorf in 2004, which masked Magus being overrated until Knux beat him a year later).

I'm honestly not sure who B8 will favor here since I'm sure there will be a decent-sized portion of the board who will bet on a Bowser bandwagon. I want to pick Bowser here because I like him more (RPG Bowser is still Nintendo's best character), but I honestly don't feel super confident in him for whatever the reason. This is an important match, too, because the winner has a good shot at getting out of the division. Ehhhhh, I really don't know who to pick here. I'm sure I'll go back and forth a few times on this one before lockdown.

Winner: Bowser?
Odds: 50%
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No modern FF character has any strength. FFX is where the series' power ends. I would be shocked if Noctis has any legs.
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These is absolutely no way Pikachu is gonna beat Kratos, my man!
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The problem with that is his opponent are known to be weak so even if Noctis is weak he can still win.
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I have Pikachu over Kratos. Kratos is just a run of the mill midcarder.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Maybe. I think he'll be stronger than Lightning because he doesn't have an outright hate base like she does.

I mentioned this in the four-pack thread, but I dunno how much this actually means, particularly in 1v1. Having a hate base probably makes it harder to put away unknowns (so Lightning isn't going to blow out Chloe even if she wins) but I don't think it means too much past that, and I do think it's worth noting that Lightning is very likely more liked than Noctis as well, and probably every other post-2001 FF character (says so much). Certainly she's more liked than Vaan/Balthier which is why she's in the contest and they aren't. I still see random Lightning avatars when I browse around the internet and she still does pretty well on JP FF character polls, etc. It's possible I'm wrong of course and that Noctis is just as liked (maybe even slightly more?) than Lightning without the hate-base, but even then I wouldn't put his ceiling much above hers.

To be fair, I don't think Noctis needs to be very strong to beat Master Hand or Wario (though I don't recall the latter's contest history well atm). I basically agree with your analysis.

And yeah I'd take either Lightning or Noctis to beat Kuja. When in doubt, go with the hero.
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Corrik posted...

2B is losing round 1

there goes bracket
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I mean, Noctis has the Tekken vote

which means nothing since they all have done pretty booty, but hey!

(Note to self: Maybe try to rally Kuma to get into the bracket next time)
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I have a feeling that Undertale will get rallied again
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LeonhartFour posted...

(7) Estelle Bright
(10) Isaac

Isaac is probably the epitome of, "Huh, wait? This guy's actually half decent?" in these contests because I think everyone is surprised that a character from Golden Sun of all things has shown staying power around here, perhaps simply by virtue of being an Assist Trophy in Brawl (which is even more befuddling, really). I mean, there's a chance that Isaac has pulled a Vyse over the last five years and dropped off a cliff out of nowhere because you never know with these cult RPG characters, but fortunately for him, he's facing another cult RPG character! Even if he is a shadow of his former self now, just being known to people who played Brawl might be enough for him to beat Estelle.

Winner: Isaac
Odds: 85%

I've long considered Isaac the new fodder line, and I've gotten some nods of agreement as well. I seriously doubt he gets his power from being an AT in Brawl. Do you spend a lot of time on Smash boards? He's been one of the top 5 or so most-discussed characters for years, and most of those people have actually played at least one Golden Sun game. It has it's fanbase, and it puts him right around the 2003/2004 Vyse level, but he's somehow managed to maintain the ability to get votes (or at least nominations) despite the only Golden Sun game released in the last 15 years being panned by the fanbase.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

The problem with that is his opponent are known to be weak so even if Noctis is weak he can still win.

Yeah, that's the thing. Noctis doesn't really have to be worth that much to win. I'm definitely not taking him to beat Zidane or Tidus, but he doesn't need to be that strong to beat Master Hand or Wario.
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LeonhartFour posted...

(3) Yoshi
(14) Shantae

what is Shantae and how did it get into this contest

Winner: Yoshi
Odds: 100%

I'm actually surprised you haven't at least heard of Shantae. She's a pretty big cult indie character/series. She's been around since 2002 on the GBC but was pretty obscure until 2013 when a Kickstarter was run for the fourth game in her series, at the same time as the MN9 Kickstarter. However, unlike MN9 which went down as a huge joke (do you see Beck in this bracket?), Shantae built up a decent fanbase, and WayForward keeps her in the limelight. Even as a fan I get overwhelmed sometimes, it seems like every 6 months or so one of her games is getting some sort of port or special edition on some system. She's also a fairly-highly discussed character for Smash, albeit as a pipe-dream. She's often associated with Shovel Knight by indie fans. At first I was shocked she made the bracket without a Board rally, but after thinking about it it does make sense that she got some support, especially with 20 noms per person.
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I mean I've heard of Shantae but I know nothing about it
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all you need to know about shantae is porn

some people will try to convince you that she has a video game and that they may like it

but in reality shantae is just porn. that is her truest form. that is her realest self.
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(3) Phoenix Wright
(6) Ike

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5155-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-phoenix-vs-marth-vs

I picked Phoenix with zero hesitation in CBIX because I didn't really trust Marth to be worth that much. I think Ike is a little different. Marth is all Smash. His Fire Emblem appearances don't mean anything. That's not the case for Ike. He's a decent blend of both. That being said, I don't think he's significantly stronger than Marth, and I outlined in the round 1 writeup why I think Phoenix could be stronger this year than last time. Either way, there's no way I'm not picking him in a match he has a realistic chance to win. Ike's got a great shot here, too, though, so I say just go with your gut here.

Winner: Phoenix
Odds: 40%

(10) Isaac
(2) Kirby

These cute mascot characters keep getting the easy draws! Isaac will do fine here (although I guess he could get SFF'd to a small degree, but I wouldn't expect it to be a lot), but Kirby's in no real danger of losing.

Winner: Kirby
Odds: 100%

Division 5

(1) Squall Leonhart
(8) Garrus Vakarian

If Ramza somehow beats Garrus, this could get ugly. Otherwise, this will basically be a repeat of Garrus's match against Sub-Zero in CBIX. He'll look respectable and show off some decent strength, but the outcome will never be in doubt.

Winner: Squall
Odds: 100%

(12) The Boss
(4) Zelda

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2876-division-4-round-1-tails-the-boss-vincent-zelda

I think The Boss can probably avoid the doubling now, but like with Zelda's round 1 match with Ezio, there's no real reason to believe the overall outcome has changed. How Zelda performs against The Boss compared to Squall against Garrus could give us a clue as to how their matchup next round will go though because Boss and Garrus have a common opponent in CBIX in Sub-Zero.

Winner: Zelda
Odds: 100%

(3) Aloy
(11) Fox McCloud

All four characters in this fourpack have a realistic chance of getting here, but whoever wins the second match will beat whoever wins the first match (once again, barring a rally). Jill and Fox should both be a clear step above Aloy and D.Va here. Looking at the bracket again, Predicting this fourpack correctly could end up being really important match because the winner has a decent shot of winning again next round, too, depending on how things play out.

Winner: Fox
Odds: 45%

(10) Captain Toad
(15) Aerith Gainsborough

Like the previous match, there's an argument to be made for all four characters in this fourpack to get here, but the winner of the second match will beat the winner of the first match. It's a little more clear cut here though because there's at least a chance of a rally for D.Va though. I almost feel like whoever predicts this half of the division correctly will have a major step up on everyone else because there are several possible permutations.

Winner: Aerith
Odds: 50%
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Leon, are you saving these predictions so we can laugh at them later when Captain Toad wins the contest?
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Anagram posted...

Leon, are you saving these predictions so we can laugh at them later when Captain Toad wins the contest?

Zen is, so they will be there for posterity.

plus I'll be on the Analysis Crew again this year so there will be plenty of chances to laugh at me regardless

I've been reading the Stats Topics for CBIX and man I made so many bad predictions that year not even counting the rallies
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LeonhartFour posted...

I almost feel like whoever predicts this half of the division correctly will have a major step up on everyone else because there are several possible permutations.

You can remove the first four words. No qualifiers needed.
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well you can always screw up your bracket in the later rounds with bad picks since those are worth more

or you could forget to set your entry as a prize entry lawl
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Division 6

(1) Geralt
(8) Ryu Hayabusa

This one is kinda tough. Geralt has the potential to be pretty good, but I'm not sure exactly how good. His floor is definitely low enough to lose to Hayabusa though, who has his own issues with being wildly unpredictable, as mentioned before. I feel like if you want a dark horse who can make a deep run, Geralt's a good choice here. If you just want to settle for the "safe" pick, I'd say it's probably Hayabusa. It's hard to trust western characters to be THAT strong.

Winner: Hayabusa
Odds: 35%

(12) Pac-Man
(4) Bayonetta

Oh hey, it's a Smash Bros. SFF match...! Seriously though, this is another fourpack where there's an argument for all four characters getting here, but unlike the ones from the previous division, I think there's also an argument for all four characters winning, even without looking into rally potential. Pac-Man can win if Bayonetta or Riku aren't any stronger than they appeared to be in CBIX, but they both have reason to be stronger. Sans is the wild card, so like with the previous match, if you want a dark horse for a deep contest run as a BOLD pick, that's the one to go with.

Winner: Bayonetta
Odds: 25%

(3) Auron
(11) Vincent Valentine

SBAllen did an excellent job with Vincent's path. You have the potential for a trap with Magus (or at least a chance for a good laugh before Auron wipes the floor with them here), and then you have a match against a fellow FF character that Vincent has clearly been stronger than in previous years. You basically have Vincent's floor in round 1 and his ceiling in round 2 (and what a range it is). Auron honestly didn't look his best in CBIX either, although he has some built-in excuses (He shared the poll with Roxas in round 1, and L-Block had a rally in round 2). I imagine Auron will be the overwhelming favorite on the board because of CBIX (and deservedly so), but we never really did see what either character was truly worth that year.

Winner: Auron
Odds: 60%

(10) Sub-Zero
(2) Ren Amamiya

Regardless of whether you have Joker or Claire here, Sub-Zero should win this one fairly comfortably. As I said in the first round writeup with Shulk, Joker would have to be at least on Tidus's level to win this. While I think highly of Persona 5, I don't think quite that highly of Joker's potential. A Joker/Shulk match could've been fun though. Too bad those first round matches didn't get reversed!

Winner: Sub-Zero
Odds: 65%
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Think you're underselling Geralt and that's even with you giving him better odds there. If he were to lose to Hayabusa that'd be a pretty big flop IMO.
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Well, I don't know how to properly gauge him. Witcher 3 is pretty popular here, but Hayabusa has beaten Zero before, and I'd never take Geralt to do that. I think Shepard would have a hard time with Hayabusa (not lose, but he wouldn't blow him out or anything), and I don't think I'd take Geralt to be stronger than that either.
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LeonhartFour posted...

and then you have a match against a fellow FF character that Vincent has clearly been stronger than in previous years.

And yet, you strongly favor Auron. FF7 fade factor, I guess?

I mean, I've got Auron here, but I never had the conviction for Vincent that he has demonstrated in older site contests. He's literally a missable character. I played FF7 without even knowing he was there.

OTOH, he was once thought to be bordering on N9 level strength, I thought. Nothing against Auron, who's plenty strong himself, but that's one heck of a fade.
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I'm rooting for Geralt, but I don't think he'll have much strength.
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azuarc posted...

but I never had the conviction for Vincent that he has demonstrated in older site contests. He's literally a missable character. I played FF7 without even knowing he was there.

and guess what kind of site you would go to in order to learn about Vincent

Being missable doesn't really matter for Vincent. People used that argument against him in 2005, and it blew up in their faces. Regardless, Vincent doesn't have to drop THAT much for Auron to beat him (he beat Sonic straight up with no LFF excuses in 2008, after all), and it looked like he's dropped somewhat (although we don't have good reads on him in 2010 OR 2013). I think Auron's the safe bet just because we've seen evidence of FFVII faltering in recent years, but Vincent winning wouldn't stun me at all.
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Division 7

(1) Luigi
(8) Frog

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3757-heart-division-round-1-bowser-vs-frog

This is a lot of green. Frog used to be the guy with the CLUTCH gene, but he hasn't really won in an upset or even been in a close match since 2007. Bowser beat him pretty effortlessly in 2010, and Luigi has looked just as good, if not better, than Bowser in recent contests (he beat him straight up in 2008, but 4-ways are weird like that). Don't see much of a reason to believe Luigi loses here.

Winner: Luigi
Odds: 100%

(5) Master Chief
(4) Nathan Drake

I think this is the perfect opponent to see how much Chief has fallen from his GAME FUELED peak in 2007. We know Drake was just good enough to beat Pac-Man in CBIX, so a loss here would imply that Chief would lose to friggin' Pac-Man now. Losing to Tails would be funny, too, for different reasons, but Drake vs. Chief really feels like a PS4 vs. Xbox match and we know who wins that nowadays. Chief can win because he's been way stronger than Drake or Tails in the past, but he was once way stronger than Yuna, too, and we saw how that turned out in CBIX!

Winner: Nathan Drake
Odds: 40%

(3) Tifa Lockhart
(11) Mewtwo

Alert: Mewtwo is a fraud. I also think more highly of Tifa than most people here seem to, so this feels kinda like a no-brainer upset pick for me (since it will undoubtedly be considered an upset because people here are already talking about MMX/Mewtwo instead). With no stakes and no rally, Mewtwo/Pikachu let Mega Man get nearly 50% in a bonus poll. That means, at the very least, Mewtwo ain't beating Mega Man, which wouldn't jive with him easily beating Sonic and Sephiroth.

Plus, say what you will about Vincent sabotage, but Mewtwo was still only worth 60% on Phoenix Wright if you take him out of the equation. That's fine, but that's not near elite levels, at least not to me. CBIX is not consistent at all with what we've seen from Mewtwo in the past. It would require an absurdly massive boost for it to be legit because this guy almost lost to Midna once. Pokemon in general was probably stronger in 2013 than previous years, but what Mewtwo did was truly unprecedented if it was legit.

Winner: Tifa
Odds: 35%

(10) Revolver Ocelot
(2) Mega Man X

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3732-hyrule-division-round-1-red-vs-ocelot
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3795-hyrule-division-round-2-red-vs-mega-man-x

I think that says it all. Ocelot and X had a common opponent in Red back in 2010. Ocelot narrowly lost, while X 60/40'd him. I'd honestly like to see Ocelot get an MGS3 pic to see if he would do better since that's the most popular game in the series now, and it's probably the game that made him popular with the fanbase in the first place.

Winner: Mega Man X
Odds: 100%
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Division 8

(1) Sephiroth
(9) Captain Falcon

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3836-midgar-division-round-3-cloud-strife-vs-captain-falcon

As I alluded to before, the beginning of this match should be hilarious because Falcon's board vote is pure Smash, and Sephiroth has one of the worst board votes ever. Looking back at my 2010 trend charts, Falcon had 42% on Cloud at the freeze, and you can see what he finished with. I think this will probably be like the beginning of Bowser or Ganondorf's matches against Sephiroth in the Villains Contest where we laugh at how close it is early on before FFVII does its customary rise to heaven for the next 23 hours and 55 minutes.

Winner: Sephiroth
Odds: 100%

(5) Amaterasu
(4) Lara Croft

At first glance, Amaterasu feels like the obvious pick to me, but Lara looked pretty solid in CBIX. Granted, the opponents she faced were Slime, Yuri Hyuga (thank you for not getting him back in because seeing him need the last update just to finish at 10% exactly made me very sad), Altair, and Kefka. Those characters are all unknowns and/or wildly variable. This would be a very impressive win for Lara if she pulls this off though, I think. Amaterasu always does well in these things, so I think she's the safe pick here, but Lara's a good upset special.

Winner: Amaterasu
Odds: 55%

(3) Ryu
(6) Commander Shepard

I might have entertained a Shepard upset at Mass Effect's peak (Shepard staying at double digits during Link/Draven is low key the most impressive showing of CBIX), but I think we're a little too late for that now, especially after the negative reception to Andromeda has forced the series into cold storage. BioWare fans are just the worst sometimes. Anyway, I think Ryu wins here in a "fairly close but never in doubt" type of match. He's been in Smash since CBIX, too, so that probably gives him a little extra cushion.

Winner: Ryu
Odds: 65%

(10) KOS-MOS
(2) Aqua

I don't know what to make of this one. I think everyone but Ellie has a decent chance of winning this fourpack. KOS-MOS is the proven commodity, even if she's never been super strong before. Aqua and Quiet have higher ceilings though. This is another one of those matches I'll probably change at least once before bracket lockdown because I don't feel strongly about any of them yet. I think KOS-MOS is the safest pick, but at the same time, I feel like I'd be at least a little surprised if she actually won this fourpack. Those contradictory statements sum up how I feel about this right now!

Winner: KOS-MOS...?
Odds: 30%

And that's all for round 2! More tomorrow!
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Speaking of Slime, I'm sad he didn't make it this time! Maybe I should have actually rallied instead of just trading a few votes for him. Probably wouldn't have gotten in anyway...

Or maybe I should have rallied Gilgamesh... wasn't expecting him to miss the bracket and he would probably actually win a match.
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