Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

I picked Shovel Knight to win because of how badly everything new Mario does in contests and how popular Shovel Knight is.

In hindsight we may have been underestimating Shovel Knight more than overestimating GTA.
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Big Bob posted...

I picked Spyro to beat Chun-Li just because the last Street Fighter game wasn't well-received and the Spyro trilogy is coming out. That, plus we're probably getting into N64/PS1 nostalgia territory at this point, which benefits Spyro.

It's Spyro the dragon. I would pick him over a fucking Street Fighter character any day.

I pick only favorites though lol
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Ilishe posted...

Big Bob posted...

I picked Spyro to beat Chun-Li just because the last Street Fighter game wasn't well-received and the Spyro trilogy is coming out. That, plus we're probably getting into N64/PS1 nostalgia territory at this point, which benefits Spyro.

It's Spyro the dragon. I would pick him over a fucking Street Fighter character any day.

I pick only favorites though lol

it's a street fighter character. i would pick them over fucking spyro the dragon any day.

LeonhartFour posted...

I picked Phoenix with zero hesitation in CBIX because I didn't really trust Marth to be worth that much. I think Ike is a little different. Marth is all Smash. His Fire Emblem appearances don't mean anything. That's not the case for Ike. He's a decent blend of both. That being said, I don't think he's significantly stronger than Marth, and I outlined in the round 1 writeup why I think Phoenix could be stronger this year than last time. Either way, there's no way I'm not picking him in a match he has a realistic chance to win. Ike's got a great shot here, too, though, so I say just go with your gut here.

Don't play with my heart like that.

My one regret with Vincent's path is he didn't get a rematch with Phoenix between Magus and Auron.
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I dunno how much Ike's Fire Emblem appearances help. Much as I love Radiant Dawn, the Tellius games are pretty much the most niche FE games that actually made it across the pond. They're probably worth a bit, but the bigger thing to me is that Ike is probably more popular just based on Smash itself; Marth is yet another feminine swordsman (easily confusable with Roy, game already had Link), while Ike's design stands out.
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Great analysis so far, Leon!
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HaRRicH posted...

My one regret with Vincent's path is he didn't get a rematch with Phoenix between Magus and Auron.

I don't regret it because Vincent would win. There's nothing appealing about that to me. Vincent/Magus at least has joke appeal because of CBIX and Magus's history.

also wow we found the ONE Spyro fan on B8
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What there are lots of spyro fans here!
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i like spyro

#teammorrigan
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are you factoring in any boost to Kos-Mos from appearing in Xenoblade Chronicles 2? and if so are you offsetting that at all by the annoyance many of its players have from the super low odds of getting her?
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"boost" from "xenoblade chronicles 2"

what is she in there for like 5 seconds
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ZenOfThunder posted...

"boost" from "xenoblade chronicles 2"

what is she in there for like 5 seconds

she is one of the rare blades and has a quest. it wouldn't be a significant boost, but i thought it might be something to factored in.
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And it's on to round 3!

Division 1

(1) Dante
(4) Ganondorf

This is the kind of match Dante never wins. He's lost tight matches against Yoshi and Ryu in the past, and I think Ganondorf is stronger than either of them (as much as I hate to say it). Now there's one caveat I'd give here. Round 3 has traditionally been the sprite round, and we know what Ganondorf is likely to get in that case. However, it hasn't always been the sprite round (it was round 4 in 2005, for example, and we didn't have one at all in CBIX), so I don't know if you can pick Dante with the assumption that we'll see Bacondorf there.

Winner: Ganondorf
Odds: 75%

(3) Vivi
(2) Leon Kennedy

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2886-division-6-round-1-leon-ridley-spyro-vivi
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2906-division-6-round-2-pikachu-tidus-leon-vivi

This match is a good test to gauge exactly how much of what we saw from Vivi in CBIX was legit because Leon Kennedy has been cleanly ahead of him in the X-Stats in every contest they've shared. I imagine Vivi will end up being a heavy favorite because of CBIX, but I wouldn't count Leon out here...unless, as I said before, it's the sprite round, because that RE Gaiden sprite is atrocious. Seriously, we just need to get rid of the sprite round because it's a legit massive disadvantage for some characters. I almost want to take Leon here as an "upset" pick (and I might talk myself into it at some point), but I think Vivi probably is stronger now than he used to be. Either way, I think this will probably be fairly close.

Winner: Vivi
Odds: 60%

Division 2

(1) Zero
(5) Noctis Lucis Caelum

It may be uncertain as to whom Zero is going to face here, but the outcome will be the same regardless of who it is. Zero is just too strong for any of these characters (barring, of course, a rally). If Zero can beat Zidane, Noctis won't pose any problems for him.

Winner: Zero
Odds: 95%

(3) Yoshi
(7) Pikachu

This one is tough because we haven't had a clean read on either of these characters in a long time, and they're probably on the same general level of strength. I don't know who the Nintendo hierarchy prefers here. I think Pikachu has the higher ceiling of the two at this point, so I kind of lean toward him, but I think this is legitimately a tossup. I might just see who B8 favors and go with the opposite to make it an "upset" pick.

Winner: Pikachu
Odds: 50%
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im317 posted...

are you factoring in any boost to Kos-Mos from appearing in Xenoblade Chronicles 2? and if so are you offsetting that at all by the annoyance many of its players have from the super low odds of getting her?

I totally forgot that was even a thing. I doubt it matters.
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im really proud of this one
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tough but firm
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LeonhartFour posted...

tough but firm

Like my ass
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that was the joke yes
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Hey now
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I've also got Ryu H winning in Round 2. He's earned my trust after coming through on the Master Chief upset from years ago. And no faith in modern western characters etc.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

i like spyro

#teammorrigan

This. Why is Leon so confident in Chun-Li being stronger than Morrigan? Morrigan's two contest appearances both had her putting up good numbers on Noble Niners. Chun-Li's contest appearances have had her getting blown out by characters who are at best high midcarders. Stupid girl couldn't even break 40% on Yuna.

Then again, assuming a constant Yuna between 2006 and 2013, that puts Chun-Li at around Claire Redfield's level. That actually sounds pretty plausible, and I guess Claire vs. Spyro would be debatable. So fine. Perhaps there is scope for the upset. I'm still sticking with Spyro because he was too impressive last contest, but we'll see.

Going to change to Magus over Vincent because I picked against Magus last contest and it didn't work. Also Vincent just does not seem to have kept up his strength. Maybe earlier he was so strong because of his strong presence in the Compilation of Final Fantasy VII, even receiving his own spin-off game?
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Division 3

(1) Sora
(4) Big Boss

As an aside, Sora must be really popular with casual nominators because this isn't the first time he's gotten a 1 seed. Perhaps coincidentally, when he had a 1 seed in 2010, this is the round when he lost...! I don't know who I favor here. I think if you're looking to hedge your bets, Big Boss is the safest pick because you know for sure he's going to be here, but we don't know who's going to be here between Sora and Red. That being said, if you're really confident in Sora or Red winning that match, you probably think highly of them, so you might want to keep rolling with them.

Anyway, I personally like Big Boss here, but I admit I tend to lean toward my favorites if they have a real chance to win. Big Boss looked good in CBIX, edging out Luigi (with some help from Ness, to be fair) and putting up a really good number despite coming in last against Sephiroth and Kirby. Admittedly, Red probably looked better, and he put up a good number despite finishing last against Samus and Mega Man after taking advantage of LFF to beat Vivi and Squall. I think Big Boss's performance is a little more trustworthy because we've seen him put up performances of that caliber before while that was the first time for Red doing that (aside from RR, I guess). Sora lost despite having an LFF advantage against Pikachu and Blue, but he has the most reason to be stronger this year. There are good arguments for all three to win, but as I said, I think Big Boss's strength level is the most reliable, so I'd lean toward him.

of course I'll include the caveat of that accursed sprite round because Big Boss has no chance if he gets a Metal Gear sprite augh

Winner: Big Boss
Odds: 40%

(6) Yuna
(7) Kefka

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3751-mushroom-division-round-1-zack-fair-vs-yuna
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu

I think Kefka is pretty clearly stronger than Yuna at this point based on those two polls. I know some people will cite FFVII decline, but gauging him through Kefka's performance on Snake the next round indicates that if he was weaker, it wasn't by much (and LFF means he's probably a little better than his final number suggests). Of course, you could also argue that Zack inflicted some minor SFF on Yuna, too, so maybe she's better than she looked. I won't say Yuna has no shot because, again, it's Kefka, but I think the numbers clearly favor him at this point (unless someone pulls a paulg and sabotages him with a Lettuce pic or something)

although if this is the sprite round Yuna DOES have no shot because sprite Kefka will rock her

Winner: Kefka?!?!?!?!?!?
Odds: 40%????

Division 4

(1) 2B
(4) Bowser

Regardless of which Nintendo reptile you've got here, they should win this without too much trouble. I think 2B has the potential to be a decent midcarder, but Bowser and Charizard are a little out of her league even with the most liberal assessment of her strength.

Winner: Bowser
Odds: 50%

(3) Phoenix Wright
(2) Kirby

This match will be a good chance to see just how strong Phoenix is at this point, so I'm hoping he gets here so we can find out because if Ike is here, I'd expect at least some minor SFF to obscure the numbers. But yeah, Kirby wins easily either way. He should get to the division finals without really being challenged too much barring some weirdness. No one in his half of the division really has any rally potential as far as I can see either, so he's the closest thing to a sure thing to win three matches.

Winner: Kirby
Odds: 95%
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God of War reboot could boost Kratos enough to challenge Pikachu.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Why is Leon so confident in Chun-Li being stronger than Morrigan? Morrigan's two contest appearances both had her putting up good numbers on Noble Niners.

Because Street Fighter >>>> Darkstalkers

and Morrigan put up good numbers on two characters that were getting heavily anti-voted (friggin' Servbot got 25% on Mario, never forget)

Morrigan let Miles Edgeworth get 37% on her in round 1 in CBIX

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Then again, assuming a constant Yuna between 2006 and 2013, that puts Chun-Li at around Claire Redfield's level.

assuming 2006 Yuna was constant would be really good for Chun-Li because she put up an equal number to Aerith on Zelda that year
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Thought Morrigan got most of her popularity from Marvel vs. Capcom.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Thought Morrigan got most of her popularity from Marvel vs. Capcom.

guess who else is in Marvel vs. Capcom
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I think you're really underestimating Dantes chances. Its been a long time since Ganondorf did anything worth of note. I'd call it 50-50 normally and DMC5 hype is going to be pretty helpful.
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What how did you get me being spyro > chun li from saying #teammorrigan

I was trying to say that titties are titties and them titties is fine
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I'd give Dante a better chance if Breath of the Wild didn't come out last year.

I know Ganondorf isn't much of anything in that game, but I think just being the last boss in a well received game helps him

because he's the biggest leech we have in these contests
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also I kind of expect Nintendo to be on an upswing in general because of the Switch's positive reception here

I think Nintendo was kind of down the last few contests because this site soured on the Wii and never got on board with the Wii U.
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LeonhartFour posted...

also I kind of expect Nintendo to be on an upswing in general because of the Switch's positive reception here

I think Nintendo was kind of down the last few contests because this site soured on the Wii and never got on board with the Wii U.

good point, i wonder what character stands to gain the most from this

How much do people think the "registered votes count double" change affects the strength of standard Nintendo characters relative to everyone else? I actually think this is an extremely important question for predicting this contest.
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All i know is it won't stop a rally.
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shane15 posted...

All i know is it won't stop a rally.

Yeah, I kind of feel like its not going to really do all much which is why I picked the way I did.

Cant be understated that we got two contests during Nintendo's weakest era that got obscured by rallies.

Now we have all these anti-rally measures in place just in time for Nintendo's huge comeback.

If Nintendo can't win no one does.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

-hotdogturtle-- posted...

The thing about Isaac is that he's actually been in 5 contests before this. He may be a hot topic for Ultimate but I wouldn't say that that's why he was nominated (and honestly I wouldn't even classify him as a "meme" like the other 3 I mentioned, but especially the latter 2).

Isaac was an 18 seed in 2013, which makes me wonder if he would have made the field this year without being one of the hot button requests for Smash this year. Hell, he was the same seed as Geno in fact.

Isaac's 18 seed was not "legitimate." There were three characters named Isaac in the contest so SBAllen gave all three an 18 seed as a joke. And Golden Sun Isaac was even as high as a 6 seed in 2010 but Dark Dawn anticipation at the time probably boosted his nominations a bit.

I think the reason Golden Sun has maintained strength is that the games are really the opposite of cult or niche. They were RPGs that arrived on the GBA when there weren't many RPGs available yet, their production values blew the competition out of the water, and they sold and were received very well.
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The rule absolutely would have changed the result of Mass Effect 3 vs. Undertale.

I don't think it's a guarantee this will stop a rally, but rallies are about building momentum, and it requires comparatively less to stop them before they really get going.
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Yeah, Golden Sun is basically the Tales of Symphonia of the GBA.

But the thing about rallies is that they're always at their weakest in the first round because they're never ready out of the gate. Undertale, Draven, and even L-Block get knocked out right away if they have better competition.

That's why someone like Monika is probably the scariest in terms of rally potential because no one in that fourpack is out of the reach of even a weak rally.
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Golden Sun is not niche on GameFAQs. This board has never respected it though. Remember the whole Add/Remove fiasco?
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KamikazePotato posted...

Golden Sun is not niche on GameFAQs. This board has never respected it though. Remember the whole Add/Remove fiasco?

yeah it got removed

for FIRE EMBLEM

IN A MATCH WITH WIND WAKER AND MELEE

man Board 8 is stupid sometimes
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Yeah, that and removing Super Smash Bros. for Soul Calibur were pretty bad
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I think youre overrating Monikas popularity, Leon. I dont think she can swing more than a very weak rally. DDLC doesnt have the giant fan base that LoL has.
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Great topic. Tag

Fire Emblem > Golden Sun forever and always
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on the GBA, yes
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Totally with you on game quality but wouldn't take it in a bracket.

Golden Sun is probably the site's strongest GBA game. (omitting ports obviously) Hard to measure the impact of Dark Dawn's then-recent release but it handled the Grand Theft Auto it was served in GotD (San Andreas) without struggling while Pokemon RSE narrowly pulled through against IV with a 4chan rally. I'd intuitively think San Andreas > IV, too, and that Pokemon would have benefited more from a day match.

I guess Metroid Fusion is sort of in the conversation if you think DPP > RSE, which I recall a lot of people believed was the case as of GotD?
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4089-east-division-round-1-pokemon-platinum-vs-metroid-fusion
The favorite pokemon generation polls never really bore that out though.
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I just realized that this is the lowest seed Gordon Freeman has ever had. How the mighty have fallen. So weird to think Half-Life is never been less relevant.

Also I'm sticking with DK > Tidus, just to keep DK's record of upsets and Tidus's record of first-round losses intact. I understand Leon loves FFX so he'll back Tidus out of favoritism alone if all else fails.
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I've never got the hype surrounding Half Life. I must be missing something because there's nothing special about either of them.
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I played through Half-Life 2 (but not the episodes) five years ago and really enjoyed it. But by this point all of the games' innovations have become commonplace to the point where it's not uncommon for people to not get it.
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