Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

I assure you Extha Ill vote against all the FF7 characters equally ;)

Its actually gonna be tough though because theyre all against characters I also dont care about or know

I thought about Ryu > Sepuiroth but decided on picking Sephiroth.

Definitely not a lock though.
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yo leon i linked to this thread on LL to give you some views, i called you a "contest expert" if you wanna play that up
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I think Cloud is gonna be fine. His exposure and usage in Smash Bros is gonna help him out amidst FFVII's tanking.

The rest of them are in trouble, though. Sephiroth just has no reason to maintain strength anymore and he's the easiest character in the world to anti-vote and rally against.

Ryu's a pretty easy character to rally for, all things considered.

And I can easily see Mario blasting the fuck out of him next round if he wins in any case.
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How much do you think Smash did for Cloud? Like in my mind if somebody hadnt somehow heard of FF7 or the character they would just associate him as another anime sword guy like the FE characters. Most of the people who come here have Nintendo and Sony consoles so Im not sure if he will see any sort of boost, but I could be wrong

I think it's less of a boost and more-so "Holding the line" and avoiding the decline that the rest of the FFVII gang is in the middle of.
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I mean everybody who comes here already knows who Cloud is

but did Smash give them a reason to like him if they didn't before, or at the very least like him more if they already do? That's all it really needs to do. There is no "new audience" for Cloud here.

ZenOfThunder posted...

yo leon i linked to this thread on LL to give you some views, i called you a "contest expert" if you wanna play that up

I prefer yoblazer's title of "greatest Stats Topic poster ever" or "#1 fan of The Show" but that probably doesn't carry any cache with LL.

I don't think I'd call myself an "expert" either way. There are lots of people better at predicting this contest than I am, like yo. I just enjoy the analysis and the stats.
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this analysis sucks
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Thats hard to tell. I mean somebody could not like him, but think hes fun to play as in Smash. Whether or not that would get them to vote for Cloud is unknown, but it could help I guess

yeah probably
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Beyond that, if you already liked Cloud, getting to wreck face with him in Smash Bros could energize you to like him even more.

I know that's what worked with me. GENKAI WO KOREU
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Yeah, just having a reason to think about all the stuff you liked about Cloud in the first place helps, too. You just need to give people something to get excited about.

Like that FFVIIR trailer. Again, it's a shame that thing no longer matters because it could've done a lot for Cloud and Sephiroth this year.
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When it comes to Smash factor Im pretty biased. I havent bought a console Smash since 64 and was pretty vocal about how the Nintendo E3 sucked because it was way too much Smash and too little anything else to care about. If Cloud somehow looks even weaker in this contest yikes his days of being top 2-5 could be coming to an end

Don't worry.

You're the outlier. Everyone else really cares bout Smash and Cloud's gonna be just fine. So is Snake, for that matter.

Sephiroth though... we're in trouble.
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Actually, now that I think about it, I wonder if registered votes counting double might make some people reconsider how they vote if they think a match will be close. People could feel free to anti-vote Cloud and Sephiroth regardless of their bracket because they knew they weren't losing until they faced Link. That's why Cloud and Sephiroth tended not to look super great against fodder because there was no danger of an anti-vote backfiring and destroying your bracket. Now you actually have to factor in the possibility of them losing, especially now that your vote counts for more.

Maybe this could actually curb anti-voting rather than double its effect...!

of course the fact that they're weaker also means they'll probably get less bracket support so it may not matter either way

Mario will be a heavy favorite against Sephiroth in the Double Elimination round if he gets there no matter what though.
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Im well aware Im an outlier when it comes to Smash. Same goes for Nintendo in general really aside from Pokemon. I grew up with Mario and stuff, but just dont really care about them or hold them anywhere near the same regard I do as my favorite games which are almost all post-2000. Snake should be fine for a while. Maybe less so in future contests if he isnt in the next Smash and his series is retired or something, but otherwise hes gonna be fine. I have him beating basically everything that isnt Mario or Link.

swordz9 posted...

Im well aware Im an outlier when it comes to Smash. Same goes for Nintendo in general really aside from Pokemon. I grew up with Mario and stuff, but just dont really care about them or hold them anywhere near the same regard I do as my favorite games which are almost all post-2000. Snake should be fine for a while. Maybe less so in future contests if he isnt in the next Smash and his series is retired or something, but otherwise hes gonna be fine. I have him beating basically everything that isnt Mario or Link.

If most people on this site were more like this we might actually get better results. Instead we're stuck with people that still think the 90's is brand new.
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shane15 posted...

If most people on this site were more like this we might actually get better results. Instead we're stuck with people that still think the 90's is brand new.

Sweet, they're already here!
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Haha, well I cant blame anyone for liking what they like. GameFAQs is definitely stuck in the past more than any other game site Ive been to though for whatever reason

Anyways for the last set of matches Leon posted I agree with all the choices. Im not worried about Draven 2.0 or any other weird outcomes in that set of matches. Im baffled the AC dog girl even got in (I know Smash, but I didnt think anybody cared since Villager isnt in)

It's because GameFAQs forums gain newer/younger posters at an extremely slow rate, and (most) everyone's favorite thing is going to be what their favorite thing was when they were 12

Nintendo is supposed to do worse with registered voters than unregistered, right? Or am I making that up?
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Nintendo does better with registered users than unregistered users. 2x registered voting power isn't going to move a match more than maybe 2% in an extreme case so it's not really worth worrying about except in a very close match.
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Am I at least not an outlier when it comes to thinking its weird stuff like Hat Kid got in? I never even heard of the character or game until this contest and didnt really think it had any rally big enough to get in

I think Nintendo does better. I would expect the stuff that has good board votes to correlate with what registered voters prefer because it's almost all registered voters at the beginning of a match, I'd wager. Probably not going to find very many people randomly showing up just as a match starts.

I am kind of curious to see how things play out now that matches are starting at a different time. I'm going to have to figure out what to do with my trend charts. I might just do them in four blocks of six hours (or one block of five if the first hour is still a Power Hour and a crazy board vote) because 6-12, 12-6, 6-12, 12-6 seems like a decent breakdown of how the demographics would probably play it nowadays anyway. Trends are really diluted since we have a lot fewer school aged people coming here now.
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LeonhartFour posted...

WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DOGFAQS. I've been reading CBIX Stats Topics, and I had totally forgotten that we had a long running gag of DogFAQs after Missile beat Kerrigan (legitimately hilarious result, by the way).

I was looking back through CBIX results when choosing my nominations this time and that made me nom Missile. I would be interested to see how strong Missile really is 1v1. I'm thinking very much fodder, and it does show just how bad Kerrigan is.
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swordz9 posted...

Am I at least not an outlier when it comes to thinking its weird stuff like Hat Kid got in? I never even heard of the character or game until this contest and didnt really think it had any rally big enough to get in

Hat Kid was supported by quite a few users on B8. A Hat in Time has become quite a darling of the recent indie scene, especially for anyone who enjoys 3D platformers. It's also got a strong speedrunning community.

One of the interlude scenes during the last SGDQ has someone asking the other guy what the best Mario platformer of 2017 was, to which the guy said, uh Mario Odyssey? The first guy says, nope! It's A Hat in Time.
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Why do people think Nintendo being so well loved is a GameFAQs thing?

Do you really think Bowsette wouldnt have exploded so much if the internet wasntalready so big on Nintendo to begin with?
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If you want to see how bad Missile's default strength would be if he weren't a cute dog, just look at Sissel's match since they're from the same game.
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WhiteLens posted...

Why do people think Nintendo being so well loved is a GameFAQs thing?

Do you really think Bowsette wouldnt have exploded so much if the internet wasntalready so big on Nintendo to begin with?

Oh, Nintendo is popular everywhere, no doubt. Link would be a popular character in pretty much any video game community, although certainly not the nigh-invincible entity (under normal circumstances) that he is here. We're just a little more Nintendo-centric than most since it seems to come at the exception of stuff that's popular elsewhere (namely PC/Western stuff).
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I dont watch speedruns or anything so I had no idea the game even existed.

As for Nintendo being loved its obviously not exclusive to just here, but it definitely feels more extreme here than other places. Western stuff just never really looks all that great here contest wise for the most part regardless of how much the rest of the internet loves it. Like Uncharted 2 is held in amazingly high regard and people everywhere seem to like Drake and Sully quite a bit, but Drake and Uncharted arent exactly powerhouses around here. Everybody went nuts over The Last of Us everywhere as well and it got beaten by basically ALttP 2.0 here

I mean The Last of Us did really well in the last Games Contest. It was worth about 36% on Melee, which is nothing to sneeze at.

(although I'm fine with TLOU not being super popular because I don't think it's that good)
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LeonhartFour posted...

I guess Geno is now that guy who gets in every year even though he really has no business being here.

Geno got in because he's currently a Smash meme. That's the same reason that Shantae and Shovel Knight are in the contest.
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A Waluigi, don't forget about him
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Nintendo is popular everywhere but more so here

if this contest was held in r/gaming I'm pretty sure Link doesn't beat Kratos or 2B or Commander Shepard
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-hotdogturtle-- posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

I guess Geno is now that guy who gets in every year even though he really has no business being here.

Geno got in because he's currently a Smash meme. That's the same reason that Shantae and Shovel Knight are in the contest.

Also, Isaac, and of course Waluigi with a two seed.

Speaking of which, if there's anymore character announcements (and of course, DLC) coming, imagine if one of these characters actually got the invite right as their match was imminent. Could something like Tifa vs. Geno flip if Geno got announced for Smash like the day before?
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So when's R2?
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The thing about Isaac is that he's actually been in 5 contests before this. He may be a hot topic for Ultimate but I wouldn't say that that's why he was nominated (and honestly I wouldn't even classify him as a "meme" like the other 3 I mentioned, but especially the latter 2).
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I just wanted to thank LeonhartFour for this good and informative topic. You, sir, are a gentleman and a scholar; may your length only be exceeded by your girth, and may you find pleasure in all your endeavours henceforth.

tag
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-hotdogturtle-- posted...

The thing about Isaac is that he's actually been in 5 contests before this. He may be a hot topic for Ultimate but I wouldn't say that that's why he was nominated (and honestly I wouldn't even classify him as a "meme" like the other 3 I mentioned, but especially the latter 2).

Isaac was an 18 seed in 2013, which makes me wonder if he would have made the field this year without being one of the hot button requests for Smash this year. Hell, he was the same seed as Geno in fact.
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-hotdogturtle-- posted...

The thing about Isaac is that he's actually been in 5 contests before this. He may be a hot topic for Ultimate but I wouldn't say that that's why he was nominated (and honestly I wouldn't even classify him as a "meme" like the other 3 I mentioned, but especially the latter 2).

Geno's been in 5, too.
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GranzonEx posted...

if this contest was held in r/gaming I'm pretty sure Link doesn't beat Kratos or 2B or Commander Shepard

If you're right, it says more about r/gaming than it does about us. Link is bigger than any of those characters on neutral ground pretty cleanly.

I say this as someone who doesn't personally care about Zelda that much.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Actually. thinking on it, we might be seriously underselling the registered voter effect. It could be a big factor in some matches.

From past information that Allen has given us, we know that registered users have a bias towards Nintendo, which puts Nintendo characters at an advantage when facing a non-Nintendo character. Registered users also favor joke characters to a larger degree than anonymous voters.

This will give L-Block an advantage against Kefka, and Zelda against Squall. The Squall match is particularly notable because it may be a case where the registered user bonus actually swings the match in favor of Zelda because Squall is only slightly stronger than Zelda to begin with.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Beyond that, if you already liked Cloud, getting to wreck face with him in Smash Bros could energize you to like him even more.

I know that's what worked with me. GENKAI WO KOREU

KOERU

But yeah same, he's like my #2 favorite FF character because I love playing as him
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Yeah I worry this contest is just going to suck because results are going to be just that bad.

It got worse and worse as the casuals had less pull, this only pushes it further down.
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NeoElfboy posted...

GranzonEx posted...

if this contest was held in r/gaming I'm pretty sure Link doesn't beat Kratos or 2B or Commander Shepard

If you're right, it says more about r/gaming than it does about us. Link is bigger than any of those characters on neutral ground pretty cleanly.

I say this as someone who doesn't personally care about Zelda that much.

your way of thinking is why you're on this site

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground
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Gamergate and the whole MGTOW thing have gone down since the last character contest (I think?). Hate to say it, but that phenomena influenced some of my picks. Like I personally think D.Va will trounce Aloy for how much hate the latter gets in the gamer community. And the porn.
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GranzonEx posted...

NeoElfboy posted...

GranzonEx posted...

if this contest was held in r/gaming I'm pretty sure Link doesn't beat Kratos or 2B or Commander Shepard

If you're right, it says more about r/gaming than it does about us. Link is bigger than any of those characters on neutral ground pretty cleanly.

I say this as someone who doesn't personally care about Zelda that much.

your way of thinking is why you're on this site

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground

Link would still be one of the strongest gaming characters on neutral ground. Those matches would be closer, but Link should win them all.
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GranzonEx posted...

r/gaming loves all of gaming, it's a true neutral ground

Wouldn't a true neutral ground be like everyone in the world voting?
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It's Mario that wins that one, right? Mario is already strong among hardcore voters. Once you start adding in voters that know fewer and fewer video game characters, Mario starts beasting more and more.
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