Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hey there!



Hey, you!

?

Yeah, you! Hi! It looks like you might be new here. Well, you came to the right place. I take it youre interested in joining us here, right? Ehehe, I see it written all over your face, youre super curious! Well then...

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

Im the president of the Club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, theyre all really fun!

First up, we have transience! Hes very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little out of touch. Its okay though, no ones perfect.well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, theres Leonhart! Hes super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to make better predictions, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, theres Kleenex! Hes full of energy and super spunky! His writing style does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didnt forget you! Whats your name?



Huh? Guest? Thats a silly name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, youre the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!



What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, were all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle is happening now! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! Its pretty fun!



Its not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so its up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

Okay, everyone! I look forward to seeing how you express yourself. Ehehe~

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Alucard vs. Princess Peach - Luster Soldier
Yuna vs. Godot - ZeldaTPLink
Kefka vs. L-Block - Xeybozn
Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman - tennisboy213

2B vs. Cayde-6 - Black Turtle
Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness - TsunamiXXVIII
Terra Branford vs. Charizard - MetalmindStats
Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman - SuperNiceDog
Phoenix Wright vs. Chris Redfield - DoctorJimmy133
Ike vs. Joel - Hbthebattle
Estelle Bright vs. Isaac - garetha200
Kirby vs. Guile - NowItsAngeTime
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in before panic
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Goosio posted...

I do hope to see Mario vs. Bowser or Mario vs. Sonic. Mario vs. Sonic could happen during the losers, maybe, though I think Mario will make it farther. (I doubt Luigi will reach it to Mario)

Really? All it would take to get Mario-Luigi would be for Sephiroth to run his record against Mario to 5-0 (7-0 including Battle Royale 2006). I personally picked Mario to finally beat Sephiroth, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sephiroth won. There really aren't any bad results in his history (no, coming in third in a Draven match is not a bad result; we were trying to target Mewtwo for a counterrally. Losing to Kirby in a fourway with Cloud in the poll is not a bad result, either.)
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okay, yeah, Big Boss is kind of a bum. I wonder how many people would pick Cecil over Ridley pre-contest
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I wouldn't have. I barely had the confidence to pick him over Crash.
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i absolutely would've taken ridley over both him and crash

ridley was already in zidane's league and i would've never said either of them are there pre-contest
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yeah, that's true. good pick
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My Sora > BB pick seems pretty good now.

I imagine Ryo has gained a bit of strength since his series' minor resurgence, so I'm satisfied with Sora's numbers here, and Neptune's weak AF so Red's a hard read on her. For once, I feel like I called a day properly.
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damn final fantasy, you suck
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transience posted...

okay, yeah, Big Boss is kind of a bum. I wonder how many people would pick Cecil over Ridley pre-contest

...Wait, what? Cecil's losing to Crash right now, and I wouldn't pick Crash over Ridley. Yes, Big Boss seems to have lost a step, but Ridley would probably beat Crash anyway so that's not an issue yet.

...Yet. I'm still worried about my bracket, though, because I have Big Boss winning the division and right now I don't even think he can beat the Red/Sora winner.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7250

Yoshi does not look too strong against Shantae.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7251

Anime girl beats generic dude.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7252

Pikachu puts up a strong showing on Scorpion.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7253

Kratos also impresses in his match.

Crew Predictions: 14/16

Next Round Thoughts: The winner of Velvet/James is still fodder so Yoshi's got another easy match. Pikachu's got another chance to show his strength against a reinvigorated Kratos.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 16
Moltar: 14
Guest: 13
Leonhart: 13
Kleenex: 13

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for Yoshi, Moltar gets the point for Velvet, transience gets the point for Pikachu, and transience gets the point for Kratos

Guest: 5 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog, pjbasis, garetha200, ZenOfThunder)
transience: 5
Leonhart: 3
Moltar: 2
Kleenex: 1
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eat it Guest no accuracy points for you today
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I dunno, I think Yoshi did just fine there.
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Dont worry guys, I'll be here to keep the guest from winning too much.

I mean, if you want to go historical, Big Boss isn't doing any better than Zidane did. a single smash trailer doesn't really boost him by a huge margin. maybe a little, but we're not talking about a strong character that's getting 44% on big boss.
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I dunno, I think Yoshi did just fine there.

It's fine but doesn't jump out to me as a division winning showing.

Arguably it's the least impressive showing of the day
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I'm blaming the old man pic until he gets squashed in round 3...!

actually Sora's kind of in luck if we keep using these pics for every match because Red's got his Smash pic and Big Boss has his old man pic
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yoshi was never going to beat the rat anyway
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Ugh, for some reason I thought this match was tomorrow. Damn it missed the guest write up, but we got the guest analysis anyway. But ohh boy I have Red winning the division finals, and this is seems like a horrible performance.

it's so hard to judge all of these performances. I don't feel comfortable at all trying to gauge Sora and Red off of these two guys, and Big Boss is a little gimped and Ridley is quite the unknown.
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Yeah, I said in my writeup that I wouldn't take anything from the Red performance no matter what he did. We have no clue at all what Neptune is worth.

I mean the lower he goes the better obviously but still
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I'm really looking forward to tomorrow's matches. maybe others feel comfortable about tomorrow's matches, but I sure don't!
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I don't know how you can have any real confidence in Kefka/L-Block, and suddenly, Alucard/Peach feels like it's up in the air.
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I cannot believe anybody actually cares about crash
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RoseChevalier posted...

I cannot believe anybody actually cares about crash

That trilogy of PS1 remasters sold over 3 million copies >_>
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RoseChevalier posted...

I cannot believe anybody actually cares about crash

It's more that no one cares about Cecil Harvey
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Round 1 Alucard vs. Princess Peach

Moltars Analysis

alucette?

Most people are writing this off as a match that will be somewhat close, but Alucards not in any danger of losing. Now that weve seen every Nintendo character perform well and win debated matches, that line of thought could come back to bite people.

Alucard has been a contest staple since 2002, but hes also someone that looked stronger in those older contests. He used to put up strong numbers on high-midcarders and near-elites, but you wouldnt think that after seeing his last couple of outings. In 2013, he barely beat Falcon, and then got wrecked by Snake next round. Now were five years removed from that, and time already hasnt been kind to him.

Peach seems to be the opposite in that shes been looking better as years go by, but her strength also very much depends on her opponent. Shes kind of got that Pac-Man thing going where shell bomb against icons or anything with a fanbase, and perform well against a lot of non-Nintendo and Square opponents. Kirby stomped her in 2013, but she has strong 1v1 showings against both Gordon and Jill, which proves the point. Nintendo has also been featuring her more prominently in recent years, so its likely this could be her strongest performance to date.

The key so far for this contest seems to be 1) Be an old or iconic character that is still relevant today and 2) Be Nintendo. Peach hits both of those points. Alucard has a legit fanbase behind him, but Peach has the Nintendo + iconic machine, and so far its been delivering. If Ridley can claw his way up to ~43% on Big Boss, Peach could get the support she needs to beat a falling Alucard.

Moltars Bracket: Alucard

Moltars Prediction: Peach 51%

transiences Analysis

I'm having such a hard time with this one. I have been since I first saw the match posted. Let's start with Alucard. He's had some truly bad matches over the last decade or so. I won't recount his contest history failures, but he's had 3 different matches with Captain Falcon and he's managed to win them, but he does worse and worse every time, to the point where I bet everyone would pick Falcon today. If Alucard can't beat Falcon, why would he beat Peach..?

Peach is riding on the coattails of Nintendo's so-far-so-good showing this year. Peach does better and better as Nintendo does a better job of growing her character. If you look at Mario polls, she does progressively better over time. Put a core Nintendo character up against a has-been like Alucard and it's kinda easy to pick her. I expect that to be the consensus, but who knows. I thought Crash would be the consensus!

Anyway, my thing with Peach is that.. who actually likes Peach? I know it's been said to death, but no one is a big Peach fan unless they either like Mario 2 or is a deep Smash fan. That's.. not an insignificant part of the site. But it's also not universal acclaim like a Falcon or even like a Ridley. Everyone likes those dudes. Peach... I don't know. I think she folds to anything with a fan base, like a Nintendo branded version of Pac-Man or something.

Does Alucard have a fan base? I mean, he's nostalgic now, and he's got a rerelease of his game out next week, and people think back to the days when Castlevania mattered with him.. but it's not like he's killing it with the kids or having people wish back to the days of Alucard. Of Castlevania, maybe, but not Alucard himself. And yet.. I'm going with him. I think his losses are overblown - a loss to Sora when he had a big boost and a loss to Pikachu before Pikachu blew the hell up. I'd take Falcon over Peach, and I think Alucard can make this happen too. Why not? It's Peach.

transience's prediction: Alucard with 51.11%
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Leonharts Analysis

This is a weird match to me. At first glance, Alucard seems like the obvious choice because who really cares about Peach all that much (in before all five of the SMB2 fanboys show up), but shes done surprisingly well in matches where she hasnt been stuck against Nintendo (because she might be the only character who folds harder within the hierarchy than DK does). She edged out Jill Valentine in 2006 and put up 47% on Gordon Freeman in 2010. Alucards strength has slowly been waning (which is what happens when you still get all your popularity from one game in a series that isnt really all that popular here, which is kind of amazing when you think about it). He needed a crazy comeback just to edge out Captain Falcon in 2013, so this isnt the same guy who was once beating Kirby. Maybe this year will be like 2015, where old stuff came back with a vengeance and the 90s dominated, which would be great news for Alucards prospects, but its too early to say just yet.

Also, I hate to say it again, but the apathy votes from being forced to vote in every match will probably favor Peach because while she might be the crappiest icon out there, shes still technically an icon. I still think Alucard wins just based on past history, but Peach will probably make him sweat it out for a bit and ultimately make everyone worry who has him beating Yuna next round.

Leonharts Vote: Alucard

Leonharts Prediction: Alucard with 51.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

Before the first few days of this contest, I was pretty certain Alucard would win this no problem. Hes always been significantly stronger than Peach, but after seeing some of the results from other Nintendo characters so far, I have this sneaking suspicion that we might get punked. Last time we saw him, he was barely beating Captain Falcon, who I dont exactly hold in high esteem. Theres probably enough distance between Falcon and Peach (though to be fair, I dont think we have a great read on Peach), that Alucard should be safe, but Im not going to be shocked if Alucard biffs this.

Kleenexs Prediction: Alucard with 55%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

Although Kefka/L-Block is going to be the headliner match of the day and Kazuma/Bomberman being another possible toss-up match, this match also has some upset potential. Even if it's less so than the other 2 matches.

Peach has always been somewhat low on the Nintendo hierarchy. Even as a character who's been in multiple games from the 1980s and 1990s which have strength because of nostalgia, she is weaker than expected given those intangibles in her favor. Though Peach doesn't play much of a role in those early games (mainly getting kidnapped by Bowser), Nintendo has done a lot more for her by giving her games where she has a greater role or is even playable.

In 2010, Peach lost to Gordon Freeman and Alucard would be a definite step up from him. Peach still has a small chance at an upset now that Nintendo has seen a resurgence on the site following the launch of the Switch. Registered user voting should favor Peach, but she probably won't get enough help from this to flip the match. Alucard won't be hurt by registered users to nearly the same extent that Final Fantasy would.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Alucard

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Alucard - 54.19%

Crew Consensus:Alucard curses Peach
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I expected more Peach picks!
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I was seriously considering it, but I need to get duped by Nintendo at least five more times before I learn.
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Master Moltar posted...

but no one is a big Peach fan unless they either like Mario 2 or is a deep Smash fan

Peach is great in Paper Mario, I can see myself voting her for that.

Also, I haven't really been looking at trend charts for the matches so far, but are trends basically dead after the first hour or so? Seems like the percentages barely move once they've settled after the initial rush.
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maybe - Ive only played a little bit of paper mario
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yeah, I think thats the impact of mobile. theres also the fact that the site is 25+ so the idea of an after school vote doesnt really exist anymore.
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Moltar preventing the crew curse.

Round 1 Yuna vs. Godot

Moltars Analysis

Yunas always been in that lower echelon on the FF hero/heroine totem pole, but that still has resulted in her having solid strength in these battles. Her vs Phoenix Wright would be a much more debatable match than this. Edgeworth wouldnt even compete here, and theres no way Godot is going to be as strong as him.

Moltars Bracket: Yuna

Moltars Prediction: Yuna 71%

transiences Analysis

Godot! Vote for Godot!

I don't have a lot to say here - Yuna will win, probably with at least a doubling, but I like Ace Attorney a lot in this reduced vote total setting. More on this when we get to Phoenix. If Yuna struggles here then new Square is in a lot of trouble.

Leonharts Analysis

Ive seen some people here talking up the Castlevania Netflix factor, but the real thing to watch for is the Ace Attorney anime season 2 factor! Seriously though, its nice to have Godot here, but hes gonna be really weak. Seriously though, Trials & Tribulations is probably the most popular game among the Ace Attorney fanbase and most AA fans love Godot, but Phoenixs strength doesnt come from that. Trials & Tribulations got in GOTD and 2015, and it did way worse than PW1. Phoenix has factors that no one else in the series does. Edgeworth is pitifully weak, and hes the star of two side games (in addition to being in almost every game in the series on top of that), so a one-game character is gonna be way worse. So yeah, Yunas gonna crush here, but I dont think any number she puts up here will really tell us anything about her chances next round.

Leonharts Vote: Godot

Leonharts Prediction: Yuna with 76.22%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I never quite understood why the PW fanbase got so attached to Godot, but there was enough of a push on B8 to finally get him into the contest this year, so now they get to rejoice as he gets demolished. Final Fantasy has clearly lost a step (barring a few exceptions), but Yuna should still look pretty dang good here. Shes not what Id consider elite, but its certainly enough to crush a character whos going to be even weaker than Edgeworth aka someone who once lost to Bidoof.

P.S. Bring back Bidoof.

Kleenexs Prediction: Yuna with 70%

Guests Analysis - ZeldaTPLink

"Blacker than a moonless night, hotter and more bitter than Hell itself... That is coffee."

Ok so I only signed up for this to spam Godot quotes, but I guess I have to make a write-up too.

One one hand, Godot has turbofodder written all over him. You won't care about him unless you played that specific AA game, and (although that is a travesty) I know people who stopped before getting there. Phoenix has never been that strong, Edgeworth is a joke, and Godot will likely be weaker than Edgeworth. And Yuna is from Final Fantasy, she is well known, and she's probably stronger than Tidus.

"The only time a lawyer can cry is when its all over."

But on the other hand... we are seeing FF characters getting humilliated left and right, including Yuna's fellow party member Tidus. And Phoenix Wright seems to be on ascension. He beat Vincent in 2013, the original N9 breaker (though probably due to the pic sabotage). He's got new games since then, and they were very well received. Some people are picking him to get to Round 3. And to top it all, the double vote thing exists, and AA characters might as well be the ones who get the most benefit from it, since this place loves AA. Godot is here because he won an internal B8 contest, after all.

"Justice is blind, but shes not deaf. Sometimes you have to know when not to talk."

Is that enough for Yuna to lose to Godot? Probably not. Edgeworth was still fodder in 2013, after all. This would be a whole new low for Final Fantasy. But I'm gonna bet Godot has what it takes to make Yuna look like crap.
People will expect her to triple him. He'll break 35% on her.

"You should remember that there is no red in my world...these must be.. my tears."

Yuna: 62%
Godot: 38%

Crew Consensus: Godot fades to black.just like his coffee.
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hey my number is missing. (sorry moltar, just saw your email) I have Yuna with 64.44%
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Yes I made a Godot fanboy oracle pick. I don't even care. Go Diego Armando!

SOTN's showing in the games contest made me stick with Alucard over Peach.

Peach has never looked stronger than Alucard in any past contest aside from MAYBE 2006, and she's stuck behind Tifa's overperformance on Samus.
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I'm betting those other Final Fantasy protagonists wish they had been matched up against Godot instead of what they got.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I'm betting those other Final Fantasy protagonists wish they had been matched up against Godot instead of what they got.

I mean if you need a battle against Godot to look good I don't know what to tell you.

I did called the Crew on Cecil/Bandicoot match but no. I can't understand why they picked Cecil. When the main character of GOTY loses to a glove what chance Cecil has against an icon?
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I don't know about everyone else, but I write all my weekend matches a few days in advance, so I hadn't seen how poorly Noctis and Zidane had looked before writing the Crash/Cecil match.
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I write mine each night after I get my kids to bed. this new start time is great.
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I think Safer_777 should replace Leonhart4 on the crew. He did called the crew on Cecil/Bandicoot and he probably wouldn't make Uranus jokes. His resume speaks for itself.
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Oh come on. You are experts, everyone knows that. There is a good thing too there, when there is a FF character having a debatable match you can bet they will lose. But seriously I am dissapointed on FF characters. They lose by everyone these days.
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The Mana Sword posted...

Also, I haven't really been looking at trend charts for the matches so far, but are trends basically dead after the first hour or so? Seems like the percentages barely move once they've settled after the initial rush.

Pikachu dropped a ton after the first hour yesterday, but trends have been kind of muted for the last few contests in general. Big vote swings feel like a thing of the past outside of rallies.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I'm betting those other Final Fantasy protagonists wish they had been matched up against Godot instead of what they got.

I think Lightning is pretty fine with getting Chloe...!

also yeah for the first round I'm trying to stay a division ahead in my writeups which is probably hurting me but whatever
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Safer_777 posted...

I did called the Crew on Cecil/Bandicoot match but no. I can't understand why they picked Cecil. When the main character of GOTY loses to a glove what chance Cecil has against an icon?

To be fair, Final Fantasy IV is generally a lot more highly-regarded than Final Fantasy XV.

Like, FFIV managed to avoid a doubling from A Link to the Past, which much of the board has unanimously accepted is one of the strongest games in a contest setting on this site.

(with good reason too, LTTP really is that good. Although I dunno if I'd say it's a top 5 game for me, but it's VERY close)
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