Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

Have we ever seen any indication that Yuna is stronger than Tidus? That feels like it'd be pretty strange to me, unless FFX-2 is way more popular here than I thought (it's not). Have we seen them in any polls together or fairly direct comparisons, other than these two?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1445-who-is-your-favorite-all-time-final-fantasy-hero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/841-who-is-your-favorite-final-fantasy-x-character
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I think Yuna mostly just gets easier paths than Tidus. She would've gotten dunked on by Donkey Kong just as badly, but she drew Godot instead. Tidus has the unfortunate bad luck of being used as 'interesting match' fodder year in and year out. He's never had a Round 1 match where he was given a gimme piece of fodder (with the exception of King of All Cosmos way back in the day).
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Not really. While I think it's possible Yuna is stronger than Tidus, I doubt it'd be by much at all. I don't think she'd do noticeably better or worse against DK.

This will actually be the first time outside of the female bracket in 2006 where Yuna has won a match in a 1-on-1 environment.
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KamikazePotato posted...

I think Yuna mostly just gets easier paths than Tidus. She would've gotten dunked on by Donkey Kong just as badly, but she drew Godot instead. Tidus has the unfortunate bad luck of being used as 'interesting match' fodder year in and year out. He's never had a Round 1 match where he was given a gimme piece of fodder (with the exception of King of All Cosmos way back in the day).

Well, outside of 2006 with Roll, this is honestly the only round 1 cupcake Yuna's had, too. She got shackled with Game Fuel Chief in 2007 right from the start. She lost to Knuckles in 2003, she lost to Ganondorf in 2005, she lost to Zack in 2010. She got a much weaker Chief in 2013, but that wasn't a slam dunk in everyone's eyes.

Although my word Rikku never has it easy. Literally had Ryu, Kirby, Yoshi, and Knuckles in round 1 matches and looked good against them all.
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I think Yuna is stronger than Tidus in 1v1s because I think Tidus still gets antivoted to a significant degree. In multiways they're probably pretty similar.
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Also, I think people's expectations of Yuna have never been as high, so she's not viewed as a choker in the same way Tidus is since he's the lead character of a very popular game.

Plus, Tidus looked good in the first few years of the contest, so he looks like he's fallen quite a bit, too. But yeah, Lopen hit on part of it, too. People really love to see Tidus flop. Yuna has her haters, too, but they're not as vocal as his.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7254

Sora does not impress against Ryo

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7255

Red triples Neptune in another fodder beatdown

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7256

Crash does indeed manage to beat Cecil

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7257

Big Boss with a not-so-big win over Ridley

Crew Predictions: 17/20

Next Round Thoughts: I'd say Sora/Red is still up in the air, as we know Sora doesn't really blowout weak opponents but still is strong against strong competition. Plus it's hard to gauge with Neptune falls. Big Boss should do better against Crash than he did against Ridley.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 20
Moltar: 17
Guest: 16
Leonhart: 16
Kleenex: 16

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Sora, transience gets the point for Red, transience gets the point for Crash, and Ranticoot gets the point for Big Boss

transience: 8
Guest: 6 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog, pjbasis, garetha200, ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot)
Leonhart: 3
Moltar: 2
Kleenex: 1
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transience calm down
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transience is going to get 100k from that rando
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tran and I have had similar percentages on a lot of matches but his have turned out a little better augh

like we both have Kefka in the high 50s but he's just a little higher

although I still might get that one if Kefka keeps dropping like this who knows...!
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whoa that might be my best day in the 10+ years of doing these

definitely my best start to a contest ever
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transcience do you have a perfect bracket
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in this, yeah. I had Zidane in my real bracket but Im not sure why so I went with Knuckles here
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So what I gathered from today's results...

- Kazuma is barely stronger than Kane. I still want Kane to return for a new TV pic.
- With L-Block soundly losing, the rally season is over. Waluigi might win one match and nothing more.
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would kane get an old CRT TV or a nice new juicy plasma
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ZeroSignal620 posted...

So what I gathered from today's results...

- Kazuma is barely stronger than Kane. I still want Kane to return for a new TV pic.
- With L-Block soundly losing, the rally season is over. Waluigi might win one match and nothing more.

As much as I doubt the rallies will actually happen, there are still D.Va and Sans to consider.
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ZeroSignal620 posted...

- With L-Block soundly losing, the rally season is over. Waluigi might win one match and nothing more.

You're thinking Waluigi could win round 1 but lose in round 2?
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The fact that people keep calling him Kazuma pretty much shows he's a relative unknown on Gamefaqs

Round 1 2B vs. Cayde-6

Moltars Analysis

2B got a lot of support during nominations, so its no surprise she ended up getting a 1-seed. Id be very surprised if she was as strong as most of the other 1 seeds though. Luckily, she probably drew the weakest 16 seed in the bracket. The site doesnt care about Destiny, let alone some dude from it.

Moltars Bracket: 2B

Moltars Prediction: 2B 73%

transiences Analysis

I have no idea what to say here. I'm kinda surprised 2B made the contest, let alone as a 1 seed. 1 seeds are supposed to mean something! I mean, Bowser and Charizard are in this eightpack but here I am debating 2B and some Destiny character.

Destiny is total garbage here, its characters doubly so, and it would get demolished by any character of note. 2B is not exactly a character of note, not because Nier: Automata isn't good, but because it's such an awkward name. Plus, I don't think 2B is what makes that game tick anyway. All that said, 2B should have no problem going big here, and it's just a matter of if it's a 60% win or an 80% win or what.

transience's prediction: 2B with 65.89%

Leonharts Analysis

2B is hilariously overseeded, thanks to B8 and the NRT, but she may have lucked out and drawn the weakest character in the field. Destiny did worse than anyone imagined in 2015 (and our expectations were pretty low), so itd be pretty surprising if a character from that game was anything other than a bottom feeder. Cayde-6 might be the only character in the bracket that Id never heard of before. I honestly dont think this match means anything for 2Bs chances next round. She could break 90% and I wouldnt bat an eye. Well, I might bat an eye because its been forever since something broke 90%, but other than that!

Leonharts Vote: 2B

Leonharts Prediction: 2B with 84.48%

Kleenexs Analysis

2B having a 1 seed is kind of absurd. Theres no way shes actually strong enough to carry that weight, but its still awesome. Theres a high chance that she flops hard - Nier didnt do that great in the GotY polls and its still fairly niche despite getting a ton of (well-deserved) praise upon its release. But thats all something to worry about next round, because shes not in any danger of losing this. No one likes Cayde-6. Even the people who like Destiny dont like Cayde-6. 2B has a pretty good picture here too and all Cayde-6 has is his dumb Cayde-6 face. Hes going to get zero votes. Literally none.

Kleenexs Prediction: 2B with 100%

Guests Analysis - Black Turtle

Here we have 2 characters from arguably the best 2 games of 2017. Both are contest noobies, and neither are likely to be above the fodder line.

On the surface, it would seem that Cayde-6 has all of the intangible advantages. Destiny is a very popular franchise compared to Nier, with an order of magnitude more players. Nier Automata managed to transcend the rest of the games in the Nier franchise though, to the point where a boring old codger like myself picked up it and had a lot of fun.

A deeper dive on these intangibles points the compass back towards 2B. She is the better character, has TJF going for her, and is definitely more in the GameFAQs wheelhouse. Additionally, I personally found Cayde-6 to be pretty grating, and I love the Destiny games.

Recent characters haven't been doing great this contest, so the people (like myself) that took 2B to Round 3 may be regretting that choice, but she has more than enough to comfortably put away Cayde-6.

BT's Prediction: 2B with 63.12%
BT's Bracket: 2B
BT's Vote: BECOME AS GODS!

Crew Consensus: You're thinking about how much you want to **** 2B, aren't you?
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So how did cayde-6 make into the bracket

ZeroSignal620 posted...

- With L-Block soundly losing, the rally season is over. Waluigi might win one match and nothing more.

If Waluigi beats Aerith, there's no way he loses to Toad/Shovel. Whoever wins that match is guaranteed to make it to round 3
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Nobody cares about Destiny.
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I recall Destiny getting a lot of negative reception at the time it was out.

Like it's some huge open world with nothing to do in it.

So a character from that game should be Tanner tier. How did it make in

(Then again Tanner did make in)

Round 1 Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness

Moltars Analysis

Interesting match that I feel is less in question now than it was pre-Contest. Nintendo has looked good in most of their matches, which gives Ness the edge (over shadow see what i did there) here. I figured he would be the slight favorite pre-Contest anyway, as Ness has looked a little better than Shadow in recent contests (though both havent looked good at all).

Its hard to say that just because Knuckles looked stronger in his match that Shadow would be the same. He wasnt in Sonic Mania, so he probably wont receive the same benefits as the old-school Sonic crew. Plus, Sonic team does get a good portion of its strength from Nintendo, so that usually doesnt work out too well when they face an actual Nintendo character.

Moltars Bracket: Ness

Moltars Prediction: Ness 56%

transiences Analysis

This match gives me the smallest little bit of pause. I'm not surprised that Knuckles beat Zidane, but it was just a little bit too effortless for me to feel totally comfortable in an empty vessel like Ness. Ness is mostly just Smash, with some Earthbound but really largely a Smash character. Shadow... seems like he sucks, and if you think Sonic Mania boosted Knuckles, that feels more specific to mainline Sonic characters than Shadow. But still! There's just something that causes me to slow down and give Ness a big win.

You see, I've been resistant to just dumping on Square as so many others have. I think Zidane is decent. Vivi, Kefka and Yuna looked fine to me. Maybe Sonic can have a nice year.

Then again, I try to picture more people voting for Shadow than Ness in 2018 and just think, "naaaaahhhhh".

transience's prediction: Ness with 58.12%

Leonharts Analysis

After Knuxs easy win over Zidane, Im feeling renewed optimism about picking Shadow here! Of course, Nintendo has been steamrolling most everything in its path so far, so this is probably false hope, but still! The glory days are well behind both of these characters. Their most memorable performances (45% on Mario and beating Jak/CJ) were 15 years ago now. Theyve done virtually nothing except embarrass themselves ever since. Ness is probably the smart pick here, especially with the way the contest is trending early on, but Ive always kinda liked Shadow here since the bracket came out, for some reason. Oh well, Ill stick with him, and the Crew can thank me later for averting the Crew Curse.

Either way, this should be a loser leaves town match where we all agree never to let the loser back into another contest ever again.

(Please let it be Ness)

Leonharts Vote: Shadow the Hedgehog

Leonharts Prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog with 52.02%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Well, I mean, Shadow got like 55% on Mario once so hes gotta win this right?? The truth is Shadow and Ness are both underachievers and I dont think either fanbase really cares about them that much. Sonic characters are de-facto Nintendo branded these days, so theres probably some fanbase overlap here. Who takes priority? Well, only one of these guys is in Smash.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ness with 58%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Ah, now this is what I like to seean 8-9 match that actually feels like an 8-9 match! Well, except for the fact that whoever wins this is going to romp next round.

Shadows a tough character to get a read on. When he first debuted, he earned a lot of fans and a lot of haters. (Count me among the former; I have to admit that the original Spirit Tsunami character started off as a bad Shadow clone, original character do not steal. Its not for nothing that my primary account on literally every site except this one is recognizably Sonic Adventure (2)-related.) He had that bizarre match against Mario in 2003 that made him look like a legitimately strong character, then went out the next year and lost to known choker Tidus. But Sonic, and especially 3D Sonic, doesnt feel that relevant. Im expecting more apathy than anything else towards Shadow.

And do you know what seems to be really hot right now in gaming? Retro styling. Weve got the rampant success of the NES Classic and Super NES Classic, and even the new games, a lot of them are built with a deliberate retro feel to them. The fourth generation consoles are, as expected, the most popularwitness the poll just before the contest started in which the SNES received 43.31% of the vote for favorite Nintendo console, to 18.79% for second-place GameCube. (I voted for the N64, though Ill admit that it didnt have a very deep library. Im not immune to nostalgia either.) Hmmanyone remember which classic game our most recent Games Contest winner was most frequently compared to? Also, fun fact: Ness is actually 4-3 in the first round. Yeah, I wouldve never guessed that, either, but hes made the second round more often than not. The third round, on the other hand, has eluded him thus far. It wont this time.

Ness with 61% of the vote

Crew Consensus: Ness psyches out Shadow
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Much appreciated on Ness/Shadow, Leon!
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Nice Undertale callback.

Not that it should make a difference but it does remind me that Earthbound is still fairly popular in the internet.

Earthbound's been on the upswing for a while now. I imagine this might be the strongest Ness we've ever seen.
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Disappointed by Kiryus performance, but should have figured the only people whod vote for him are people who actually have played the games. Bomberman likely gets the default whatever vote.
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apparently Shadow is in Smash

get ready, Ness
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#teamfake
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After reading up on it, it looks very real

Ness is so freaking lucky Shadow wasnt officially announced yet
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if it is real and it gets announced within the next few days

poor estelle
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This is a case of "too little, too late" for Shadow, if true. I doubt the Smash Direct will even be announced piror to Shadow's potential R2 match.

The one thing Shadow has going for him is that Knuckles looked good and Zidane was close to Ness in 2007. But I think Earthbound/Ness is actually stronger nowadays than 10 years ago thanks to the vote decline, Earthbound finally releasing in Europe as well as North America again, and getting much more exposure.
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The Mana Sword posted...

if it is real and it gets announced within the next few days

poor estelle

I really want Estelle to do well but even if she somehow beats Isaac no way can she deal with Kirby.

i dream of a day where if crash and spyro are suddenly low midcarders, smash can make banjo a low midcarder

instead banjo's not even in the bracket. what the heck.
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Yeah, EarthBound did really well in 2015, so that gave me pause about picking Shadow. I'm just going down with my sinking bracket for now.
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I think that Shadow can still win and the idea of a blanket Nintendo boost is very premature. I think Knuckles doing well means more than any other result so far.
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Yeah, my only hesitation with extending that to Shadow is that he's not in Sonic Mania at all.

Peach flopping today (I wrote that writeup before this match started) makes me feel a little better because Ness is only a step above Peach on the Nintendo hierarchy in my book.
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Yeah I think people are overreacting to the Final Fantasy people losing. Vivi has one of the highest performances so far, and we still have yet to see Squall and Sephiroth. Why freak out over the fodder of Final Fantasy?
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Round 1 Terra Branford vs. Charizard

Moltars Analysis

Unfortunate draw for Terra. Shes not weak, but she definitely aint on Charizards level. She lost cleanly to Kirby with Peach in the match, and weve seen Charizard hang with those upper tier Nintendo characters in the past.

Pikachu looked crazy in 2013 and backed it up in his match against Scorpion. Now its time to see if its just Pikachu, or if all the Pokemon reps are going to clean house yet again in 2018.

Moltars Bracket: Charizard

Moltars Prediction: Charizard 60%

transiences Analysis

Poor Terra. Charizard is a monster 12 seed, one of 3 that could win this division and probably the favourite after Pikachu so effortlessly dispatched Scorpion.

Terra's done okay for herself after being a total bomb in her first match with Dante way back when. She's not great, but she's okay, and as older Square becomes oddly more and more relevant in the waning years, she's probably at about the fodder line. If Charizard can double her then he's in good shape to deal with Bowser. I think Terra pulls in enough support to look okay, but I also think real high of Charizard so my standards may be a little high.

transience's prediction: Charizard with 68.45%

Leonharts Analysis

Very unfortunate draw for Terra here. Shes done surprisingly well in her last couple appearances, and she gets fed to Charizard right out of the gate. She couldve done some damage with a more favorable setup. I still think shell surprise some people with how well she does, especially since people are overreacting to Pikachus performance against Scorpion. Shes got no chance of winning, of course, but I think she could make Charizard look bad here.

Or Im totally off base and its time for me to throw in the towel not even halfway through the first round!

Leonharts Vote: Terra Branford

Leonharts Prediction: Charizard with 57.60%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Im going to need a list of everyone who voted for Terra, thanks. If didnt have enough POKEFEAR in the past two days, get ready for another helping. 2010 Charizard is a fraud, as they say, but hes still plenty strong, and Terra is another in a long line of middling Final Fantasy characters that are going to get embarrassed this contest. How did she get a 5 seed??

Kleenexs Prediction: Charizard with 68%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Before CBX started, I was confident that Terra would overperform and expose Charizard in the process. For one thing, Terra herself fared extremely well back in 2013, only letting Kirby pull 56% on her directly. Granted, that match was distorted by Peachs presence and the overlap between her and Kirby, but even giving 80% of the princesss votes to the puffball would put Kirby vs. Terra at almost exactly a 60-40 result 1-on-1.

Also, Charizard itself underperformed significantly compared to other Pokmon in 2013. Whatever you blame it on, while Squirtle crushed Cloud and Mewtwo briefly contended with Draven (just to name two examples), the Zard was busy barely beating Zelda despite DK in the match and then falling short of Mega Man with Zero in the match.

In part, I was banking on Pokmon generally being weaker this year, due to the format change plus a relative cold streak in terms of well-liked games and general hype. After Pikachus overperformance, however, Im a bit less sure of that. Still, at least Scorpion bled the rat down below a doubling. That makes me believe (or just hope in vain your choice, really) that the ninjas merely weakened a fair bit in the past five years thanks to Mortal Kombat X being met with a collective shrug compared to the praise for Mortal Kombat 9 as a series revival.

Kefkas strong result in tonights match is also encouraging. So far, we have seen several Final Fantasy characters underperform, but the two who people actually care about (with matches to date) have fared or are faring well. Terra might not be quite as well-liked, but she is still the protagonist of the most universally beloved Final Fantasy game, and she even scored a higher seed than Kefka himself (for whatever little thats worth)!

Charizard itself is not the most well-liked Pokmon either, and part of why I think (hope) it will flop as it did in 2013 is because of potential anti-votes from the Pokmon fans who hate Genwunners, something I think Charizard uniquely suffers for due to its non-fans perceiving it as being widely beloved. When it comes down to it, though, all these words might just turn out to be the ramblings of a fool attempting to justify his lack of Pokefear, especially in a match with such an obvious winner. Regardless, I still choose to believe that Terra can turn a few heads with her result.

Prediction: Charizard wins with 59.95%

Crew Consensus: Zard roasts his competiton.
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Master Moltar posted...

Moltars Analysis

Unfortunate draw for Terra.

Master Moltar posted...

Leonharts Analysis

Very unfortunate draw for Terra here.

Nice
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I cant see Terra holding Charizard under 60% given the other results in this contest
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But FF 6 is one of the top 2 FF games. And nobody has anything bad to say for Terra. She will do well.
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transcience posted...

I cant see Terra holding Charizard under 60% given the other results in this contest

*looks at today's results*

I can see it.
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but then again I don't think that highly of Charizard

he was ridiculously overrated in 2010 (never forget he barely got 55% on Kratos) and 2013 exposed him a bit

He's not as strong as Pikachu.
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Round 1 Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman

Moltars Analysis

Not much to say here as weve got a lot of data on these guys and know where theyre at. Bowser is easily a few levels above Freeman in strength.

This is predicted to be around a 60/40 match, but Bowser is likely going to look a little better here because Nintendo, and Gordon has probably fallen in strength due to irrelevance.

Moltars Bracket: Bowser

Moltars Prediction: Bowser 64%

transiences Analysis

There's an alternate reality where Gordon Freeman continues to improve, gets more games and actually becomes a legit gamefaqs character. He and HL2 seemed like they were going somewhere until the series just kinda abruptly ended. The last Half-Life piece of content is now 11 years old and the last mainline game is 14. Seems kinda crazy for a guy that was on the up and up.

Gordon has to have dropped as our casual audience (read: I'm willing to fall in love with newer games) has largely faded. Maybe Gordon can pull in the classic 40% for old times sake, but Bowser's just too far above him for any kind of fight here.

transience's prediction: Bowser with 62.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Even at Gordons peak when Half-Life 2 and the Orange Box were fresh, hed never come close to beating Bowser. Now its a decade later and Half-Life 3 feels like such a pipe dream at this point that there arent even any wacky rumors about it on the internet anymore (Im exaggerating for effect, so please dont feel the need to link me to any of them). This might be the weakest Gordon Freeman weve seen since GFNW was still a thing.

As far as looking ahead to next round, Im honestly not sure who Id take in a match between Gordon and Terra these days, but I think itd be close. If one of them drastically outperforms the other here, that one should probably be the favorite headed into next round. Im hoping its Bowser, but this has not been a good contest for hope so far.

[insert ominous foreboding of a Monokuma rally here]

Leonharts Vote: Bowser

Leonharts Prediction: Bowser with 62.69%

Kleenexs Analysis

Perennial punching bag Gordon Freeman has actually sort of come into his own over the past few contests. Hes not the butt of a huge joke the way he used to be, and has looked downright respectable in recent(ish) years. Unfortunately, this is a match thats way out of his league. Bowser is a division-winning threat, so Gordon goes back to getting bounced in round 1 to set up a 2010 rematch of Bowser vs. Charizard in round 1.

Kleenexs Prediction: Bowser with 61%

Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog

This is going to get ugly. No one cares about Gordon anymore, Half-Life 2 is 14 years old now.

Can Gordon get a rally? The Half-Life reddit is actually decent in size, 50k subs, 300 online:

https://www.reddit.com/r/HalfLife/

Im predicting no though. Gordon is just too forgotten at this point. Normal guys never win in these contests, and we have the ORIGINAL normal guy, Gordon, in our match today. GFNW(Gordon Freeman Never Wins) was a thing for a long time, till he finally won.

The only question is will Bowsette have any impact on Bowser. I think it will, but only to the tune of maybe a 1 percent decline for Bowser in this match.. Bowser will have to break 73% to beat Charizard IMO, and I dont think he will get there.

Bowser with 70%

Bowsers odds of winning: 97%

Crew Consensus: Bowser cancels Half-Life 3
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Terra vs. Scorpion who wins
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That's got to be one of the closest spreads on percentage we've ever had.
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