Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 205: A House Divided Senate Stand

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Reg
11/07/18 7:37:46 AM
#252:


Also oh the guy that's literally under indictment won Attorney General in Texas

No words to describe how disappointed I am in that one, even if it was the expected result.
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xp1337
11/07/18 7:41:53 AM
#253:


Oh, come to think of it, I remember a few of you discussing how there are judicial systems in the US where you can be convicted by non-unanimous juries.

Yeah, that's a thing.

The Constitution guarantees you a right to a jury of your peers.

it does not say anything about how the juries need to be unanimous to reach a verdict or anything

Edit: To be specific, SCOTUS ruled on this in Apodaca v. Oregon in 1972. Their ruling is that state courts do not require unanimity in criminal cases even though federal law requires that federal courts must have unanimity.
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Aecioo
11/07/18 8:43:46 AM
#254:


xp1337 posted...
Anyway, I may have more to say on this tomorrow when I/we have a better grasp on all the results since there are still a number of races outstanding/I'm still playing catch-up a bit on the time I missed.

But the Senate is really disappointing. Which seems kind of weird given the House is mostly performing within expectation. With the Senate results as it is, it does feel hollow to say "blue wave" but then you look at the popular vote and the House and historically I mean.. it technically is? I don't think I'm in favor of using the term (except mocking "RED WAVE" which is always okay.)

While I've backed away from the ledge I was nearing around 8:30 or whenever I made the decision to check the **** out of this topic, election coverage, and being awake I gotta say I still feel disappointed. Part of that is surely because as we all know (do we? Maybe not, I'm probably overestimating my own notability) I was high up on the optimistic end for how the night would turn out and we definitely didn't get there. We're hovering around my "Cynicism" forecast (which was around/slightly above Suprak's predix IIRC) so like... this outcome wasn't outside my range of expected outcomes but it still hurt to see it happen, especially since it felt kind of front-loaded with the Indiana and Florida (always florida) one-two punch.

But also because I think the Senate results - whatever reason you attribute to them - will be seen by Trump and the GOP (and make no mistake they are one-and-the-same and have been since 2016) will see it as validation for the appeals to race and fear that he was going hard on in the final weeks. And in certain areas that might not even be the wrong calculation, at a certain point the results just speak for themselves. And so I think they'll double-down on that strategy going forward. 2020 is going to be dark. And it's just so depressing to me to see that's where this country is heading. I've always thought - and said both before, during, and after - that Trump winning in 2016 meant we were heading down this path and that was probably the last real chance to change course... but a blue tsunami in 2018 was the secret emergency last resort breaks on that and even with a good night in the House, the Senate results keep it from being an indisputable repudiation. So here we go.

On a slightly more positive note (whatever I can muster of it, this was an alarmingly dark night for me) is that taking the House is significant going forward. We'll finally have oversight on this administration. The GOP committees have been a joke on this front (in the House at least, the Senate was more legit) and that has been remedied. Any of the worst legislative agenda from Trump will be halted. Though it was always a running joke, there will be no Wall. The ACA is safe... well, what still stands of it (barring lame-duck shenanigans and tbqh I'm not sure what goes on there. Maybe nothing, maybe chaos.) Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are safe and the House originates all spending so budgets should be saner. The Mueller investigation is safe because even in the worst case scenario (and I legit think it was plausible if the GOP held both chambers) that he is fired/Rosenstein is replaced the House can hire him and keep it going.

All things equal (i.e. ignoring the implausibility), I'd prefer the Senate over the House because of its power for confirmations, but gaining the House is still a huge deal.

Think I had something else to say, but Walker was just called as having lost and I lost my train of thought so let's cut it here for now.


i mean

didn't yesterday go pretty much as expected except for some real tight governor races?
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Reg
11/07/18 8:53:58 AM
#255:


Aecioo posted...
i mean

didn't yesterday go pretty much as expected except for some real tight governor races?

Yes. But his point about Republicans taking their Senate gains as validation is probably accurate, and terribly depressing. It means we're in for at least two more years filled with blatant lies and fearmongering from them.
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xp1337
11/07/18 9:01:55 AM
#256:


Aecioo posted...
i mean

didn't yesterday go pretty much as expected except for some real tight governor races?

Kindaaaa.

But like I said, I was more optimistic than most and was thinking it would be a better night. And my point about Trump/GOP still stands, I think.

As I've also said, since I made that post I've slowly started to feel a bit better.
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Corrik
11/07/18 9:03:47 AM
#257:


I think everything went as expected.

Midterm election. Non controlling house usually makes significant gains. Bad Senate map made pickups by Repubs pretty understandable.

All in all, pretty normal.
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SupremeZero
11/07/18 9:10:45 AM
#258:


Reg posted...
Aecioo posted...
i mean

didn't yesterday go pretty much as expected except for some real tight governor races?

Yes. But his point about Republicans taking their Senate gains as validation is probably accurate, and terribly depressing. It means we're in for at least two more years filled with blatant lies and fearmongering from them.

Not really. They'll probably keep SAYING it, so the lies and fearmongering are still there, but if anything those were going to get even more extensive if they lost the house (There's no way they were just going to give up and shut up, come on), and while the voters might take it as validation, the politicians are rather likely to start freaking out hard.
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Reg
11/07/18 9:39:37 AM
#259:


Well, sure. We were in for it either way.

Trump is absolutely the type of man that will step it up even harder "because it works" though. Whereas, if Democrats had won the Senate by some miracle, I'm not sure it would significantly change.
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Espeon
11/07/18 9:45:27 AM
#260:


Stefanowski concedes to Lamont!
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Corrik
11/07/18 9:50:49 AM
#261:


Wish these Arizona and Montana races would do something.
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banananor
11/07/18 9:53:44 AM
#262:


Yeah, these results were what the pollsters were predicting.

It would have been absolutely terrible if Democrats hadn't gotten that 50.1% majority in the house. Another two years with 100% of the power held by trump's Republicans was not something I was looking forward to

Now, at least, we won't have to rely on dramatic gestures by a John McCain equivalent to keep things like health care alive
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banananor
11/07/18 9:55:03 AM
#263:


That being said, they were only predicting like a 70-80% chance that the house would flip

The direction was known, the specific volume was not
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Reg
11/07/18 9:56:17 AM
#264:


Frankly, the thing I'm most looking forward to right now is Adam Schiff becoming chair of the Intelligence Committee.
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Espeon
11/07/18 10:03:34 AM
#265:


To answer my own question from earlier in the topic, apparently the polls were right about Lamont winning, but that early lead for Stefanowski, accompanied by steadily rising percentages, was only percentages of DISTRICTS, not overall votes. The big cities were the last numbers to come in and heavily swung the vote towards the Dems.
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:05:21 AM
#266:


Espeon posted...
Stefanowski concedes to Lamont!


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Surprisingly close race but gg Connecticut.
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:06:23 AM
#267:


Corrik posted...
Wish these Arizona and Montana races would do something.


I feel like Arizona is over unless provisional/absentee ballots show something crazy.

Montana however is apparently the slowest counting state in the country. They must have bears handling the results or something. I keep looking and it hasn't moved since like 5 am.
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Moops?
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:10:39 AM
#268:


So that gives the democrats a net of seven gains in governors seats. Loses in Ohio and Florida stink, but overall thats a great night for them!

Wish we could've taken Iowa too, but that one is less disappointing.
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Moops?
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TheRock1525
11/07/18 10:15:56 AM
#269:


Nick Riccardi

@NickRiccardi
Dont get fooled by reports that 99% of precincts are in in AZ. Thats only Election Day votes that have been tallied. Theres a huge tranche of early votes that, ironically, still have not been counted. As much as 1/4 of the total vote. May not know #AZSen for days.


Well then.
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HeroicSpiderPig
11/07/18 10:17:05 AM
#270:


My takeaway from last night is the political realignment at play. Democrats, for the moment at least, have won the soul of the Suburbs, and despite some of comments from the usual suspects (on both sides) this is a Big Deal, and something the parties have been fighting over since the end of WWII. That being said, it remains to be seen whether or not this is a permanent shift or whether or not this is just mercenary behavior on the part of Country Club Republicans to get investigations now that they've got their tax cuts and judges. I'm a bit more hopeful, as it's not like the house campaigns were focused on Trump scandal stuff, but I'll still have to see it to fully believe it.

Regardless, I don't see the situation in the suburbs changing in Republican's favor by 2020.
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Kenri
11/07/18 10:18:45 AM
#271:


Disappointed to wake up and see Denham still leading in CA-10, but I guess that one won't be known until the absentee ballots are counted? Maybe? I dunno I never had much faith in Harder.
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HanOfTheNekos
11/07/18 10:19:06 AM
#272:


I mean, Ohio suburbs beg to disagree.
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Forceful_Dragon
11/07/18 10:26:11 AM
#273:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I feel like Arizona is over unless provisional/absentee ballots show something crazy.


Up to a million absentee votes. That's more than enough to swing it still.
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GuessMyUserName
11/07/18 10:32:42 AM
#274:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060155917059219461

Trump's already threatening Dems if they attempt to investigate him!
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:34:52 AM
#275:


Forceful_Dragon posted...
Suprak the Stud posted...
I feel like Arizona is over unless provisional/absentee ballots show something crazy.


Up to a million absentee votes. That's more than enough to swing it still.


Oh ok that is crazy enough!

Any reference how those usually break?
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Moops?
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Eddv
11/07/18 10:36:10 AM
#276:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Forceful_Dragon posted...
Suprak the Stud posted...
I feel like Arizona is over unless provisional/absentee ballots show something crazy.


Up to a million absentee votes. That's more than enough to swing it still.


Oh ok that is crazy enough!

Any reference how those usually break?


Typically tend to trend younger (which in turn trends liberal but also tends to include military which tends to trend Conservative)
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:36:13 AM
#277:


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060162807960870913?s=20

I have no idea how to take this or what it means.
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Moops?
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Eddv
11/07/18 10:37:15 AM
#278:


Suprak the Stud posted...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1060162807960870913?s=20

I have no idea how to take this or what it means.


Means he fears SPEAKER BETO
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:37:22 AM
#279:


I had assumed a lot of military, which McSally should clean up with since shes one of them.

I dont necessarily think absentee skews Democrats here but I will at least refrain from assuming the race is over.
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Moops?
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:39:56 AM
#280:


I dont think Beto is going to be in the house any more though, right?

He didnt run for his old house seat.
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Moops?
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Reg
11/07/18 10:40:43 AM
#281:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I dont think Beto is going to be in the house any more though, right?

He didnt run for his old house seat.

Accurate.

It's also accurate that the Speaker doesn't have to be a sitting representative, though iirc there's no precedent for that actually happening.
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xp1337
11/07/18 10:42:00 AM
#282:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I dont think Beto is going to be in the house any more though, right?

He didnt run for his old house seat.

there's no rule that the speaker of the house needs to be a member of the house
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ChaosTonyV4
11/07/18 10:42:55 AM
#283:


The Speaker doesnt actually have to be an elected member of the House.
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Suprak the Stud
11/07/18 10:43:32 AM
#284:


Oh.

Is there any rule saying the speaker of the house cant be a dog
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Moops?
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HashtagSEP
11/07/18 10:44:25 AM
#285:


Please welcome Speaker of the House Air Bud

He says these elections were a real slam dunk
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HashtagSEP
11/07/18 10:47:31 AM
#286:


I'm glad you all took a paws to reflect on this
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Corrik
11/07/18 10:49:32 AM
#287:


Suprak the Stud posted...
Corrik posted...
Wish these Arizona and Montana races would do something.


I feel like Arizona is over unless provisional/absentee ballots show something crazy.

Montana however is apparently the slowest counting state in the country. They must have bears handling the results or something. I keep looking and it hasn't moved since like 5 am.

I think they went to sleep.
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TheRock1525
11/07/18 10:50:34 AM
#288:


I secretly hope the Dems make Hillary Clinton speaker as the ultimate troll move.

Granted it would probably kill their 2020 chances but it'd be fun as hell!
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Corrik
11/07/18 10:55:17 AM
#289:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I had assumed a lot of military, which McSally should clean up with since shes one of them.

I dont necessarily think absentee skews Democrats here but I will at least refrain from assuming the race is over.

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

41% GOP
34% Dem
25% unaffiliated.

Median age on early votes was 61. I think that says a lot for what to expect.
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ChaosTonyV4
11/07/18 10:58:17 AM
#290:


Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.
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TheRock1525
11/07/18 10:58:58 AM
#291:


Lol McConnell gets seats in the Senate and he's bitching about how the House shouldn't commit "presidential harassment."
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pyresword
11/07/18 10:59:54 AM
#292:


Not only is that not true, but even if people were saying that it wouldn't have anything to do with whether or not there was a red wave.
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Corrik
11/07/18 11:00:08 AM
#293:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.

There really wasn't a wave. Maybe a ripple.
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TheRock1525
11/07/18 11:00:20 AM
#294:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.


They literally lost control of the ability to push through any agenda they want and they're claiming it was a red wave.

If their best argument is "look at how they treated Kavanaugh" that's gonna be long forgotten by 2020.
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Reg
11/07/18 11:00:51 AM
#295:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.

Maybe like four-six months ago people were saying it?

But as far as anything remotely recent goes, that's not even revisionist history. It's outright lies.
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Corrik
11/07/18 11:01:27 AM
#296:


TheRock1525 posted...
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.


They literally lost control of the ability to push through any agenda they want and they're claiming it was a red wave.

If their best argument is "look at how they treated Kavanaugh" that's gonna be long forgotten by 2020.

Economy is the only argument they really need. Extra turn out for a presidential campaign and carrying of straight ballots will carry a lot of areas lost. Not really a big deal.
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Kenri
11/07/18 11:03:05 AM
#297:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.

be honest here, how many Trump supporters do you trust to have a good grasp on what "1/7 chance" means?
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Reg
11/07/18 11:03:55 AM
#298:


Kenri posted...
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Im seeing a ton of Trump supporters saying how the Senate proves it was actually a Red Wave, because the Dems and media thought they were gonna take it too.

Is this revisionist history? I dont remember anybody giving the Senate higher than a 1/7 chance.

be honest here, how many Trump supporters do you trust to have a good grasp on what "1/7 chance" means?

Judging from the grasp the ones here have on "three in ten chance", they have literally zero grasp
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TheRock1525
11/07/18 11:04:53 AM
#299:


pyresword posted...
Not only is that not true as far as I'm aware, but even if people were saying that it wouldn't have anything to do with whether or not there was a red wave.


Mouthpieces like Hannity are already saying it was a huge night for the President so yeah people are saying it.
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Corrik
11/07/18 11:07:30 AM
#300:


It was a good night for the GOP Senate.
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pyresword
11/07/18 11:08:19 AM
#301:


TheRock1525 posted...
pyresword posted...
Not only is that not true as far as I'm aware, but even if people were saying that it wouldn't have anything to do with whether or not there was a red wave.


Mouthpieces like Hannity are already saying it was a huge night for the President so yeah people are saying it.

Sorry, poor use of pronouns by me.

What I meant was "no one was saying Dems were going to take the Senate".

Edit: And likewise, Dems hypothetically making incorrect predictions does not imply a "red wave". It's either a red wave or it isn't, and what people's predictions were don't really matter in terms of whether or not this was a wave election.
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