Board 8 > English Literature Mafia Topic 23: Foreshadowing Pays Off

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

Fearing it to the point where it scares you into a move you wouldn't normally make when the likelihood of the combo existing is incredibly low and the players needed to match the combo aren't playing how you'd expect.

Again we loop back to, you are unwilling to entertain that people have different perspectives from you.

I'm a stats kind of guy. And by that I don't mean "since this role combo has existed 1 in X games, that means the probability it exists in this game is 1/x"

You know why I don't think that way? Because that's not how stats work. When your sample size is 1 (in this case, the sample being, the current mafia game) stats mean fuck all.

It is more prudent to look at what has happened and what your reads are and think, "I feel X and Y are both scum. Is that possible? Yes or no."

I as a town player do not rely on invalid usage of probability based on historical games which have zero bearing on the current one to determine my play. I often do things where I can't concretely explain why for how night actions happened a certain way - because I don't always have to know what tricky role scum used in order to read a player with a given claim as scum.

This is what I'm getting at. I play fundamentally quite different from you, as clearly evidenced by every single mafia conversation we have ever had.

You refuse to recognize this difference and stubbornly insist that because I consider the game in a way you disagree with, that I am scum.

It is stubborn, narrow minded, and conceited.

Unless you're scum of course.

I mean, I'm not even trying to do this but

turbopuns3 posted...

Lea
Cam
Lopen
Puns

This is the list who isn't scanned or claiming power

Right before the end of the day Tom successfully drew a kill. If you assume it can't have been Lea or Cam due to flips it's between me and puns, if Tom used this list as a guideline (which isn't a bad idea)

And he already used his ability on me night 3 so you'd expect him to try someone else.

Gonna keep looking to see if Tom put any good suspicions don, but I do feel even better about it using this list as a potential pool he chose from
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Votals (as of 302)
(0) Turbopuns: (Lopen)
(0) Lopen: (Ulti)

Day ends Friday at 9 p.m. EDT, or when majority is reached

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##Vote: puns

Couldn't find any hints. That list is the best process of elimination I could find for potential Tom targets so I would say it's at least reasonable that Tom targeting puns could have hapoened and even been fairly likely

Not really saying it strongly adds to the case but it is also worth noting Tom wasn't one of the people drinking the puns = obvtown kool aid. Seemed p neutral on him.
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Still completely handwaving every reason you ever called Sheep scum eh

I think the case on you is better. Fluid play

Speaking of sheep though I think it's very unlikely Tom thumbed him. We weren't really pursuing that avenue at all at the time.

Realistically if you look at the players alive he seems the least likely there aside from arguably me as I don't see Tom repeating me without a damn good reason to.
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@Obellisk would you lynch sheep instead of lopen? Or are ya just gonna wait til day's end and parrot Ulti

turbopuns3 posted...

@Obellisk would you lynch sheep instead of lopen? Or are ya just gonna wait til day's end and parrot Ulti

I mean I could parrot Lopen, right now.

(j/k)

I don't deserve to be alive right now.

At least two of you are town. I need to trust someone. I could vote sheep.
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Why don't you deserve to be alive

turbopuns3 posted...

Why don't you deserve to be alive

Because I squandered my place in the game. I coasted without ever really helping do anything. I was dead weight.

I wish I had an educated solution for us.
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He's not wrong. Excellent Survivor play.
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I mean I did think I had a thing or two but I was wrong. And really guys, I do not think there is a survivor.
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I mean I hope not because it's a kinda crappy role in general based on the accounts of everyone I've ever heard who rolled it, and also because it makes my decision here more complicated.

Well I loved being survivor. So give It a shot.
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Votals (as of 316)
(1) Turbopuns: (Lopen), Lopen
(0) Lopen: (Ulti)

Day ends Friday at 9 p.m. EDT, or when majority is reached

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turbopuns3 posted...

So @Sheep007 what do you think

Everyone else in the game thinks Lopen is a good lynch. Including Lopen.

You getting in on this?

I think Lopen effectively has to be the lynch today. I'm not sure if he's scum but lynching him all but guarantees another day and there's nobody else I actually want to lynch. I like his push on you well enough even if I don't entirely agree with it, it's made me think about you a bit more.

Then again, I'm a bit confused about why he laid off on SBell, since he was on his case a lot near EoD a few days back iirc. What're your thoughts on him now, Lopen?
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Sheep007 posted...

I'm a bit confused about why he laid off on SBell,

Oh, I can answer that one.

It's impossible for SBell, or anyone else but me to be scum, because yesterday I voted for a guy who many people thought could be scum.

-___-

Only scum would deliberately misrepresent my point so many times in a row.
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Lopen posted...

Only scum would deliberately misrepresent my point so many times in a row.

Boil it down and it's you only point.

your

Like, really. That's the entirety of your case.

As I said in many more words already, if you're town then your inability to conceive of someone playing with different perspective than you is crippling you. But, the actual mean of your case is "Puns lynched Cam"

*meat

You didn't answer Sheep's question by the way.

My case has nothing to do with the actual vote though. If you'd just put a blank post with a vote on Cam, and hadn't been defending Cam all game we're not having this conversation

And I'm not going to tell sheep why I've abandoned SBell he can figure it out from my posts if he's read em (not sure he has-- lack of content from Sheep today is disappointing and is making me doubt my read much more than anything SBell has done).

If he wants to build a case on SBell he should build one.
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Ok so your point is your case is "Puns lynched Cam and I can't understand why"

I've explained it half a dozen times and you just refuse to accept it

Can you take a minute to really think how this path would make sense for me as scum?

Cam town cleared me over and over again, and also entertained the thought of you as scum I'm pretty sure.

Lynching sheep would be the path of least resistance x1000 for me as scum.

You really haven't though. You've claimed stuff like I don't understand your play and that you went with your gut and that you'd been doubting your read on Cam but you haven't actually done a through walkthrough

At best you've explained why voting Cam isn't blatantly contradictory to thinking he's town-- not why he's actually a better choice than Sheep. Thinking there is some obscure role setup and SBell and I are the scum with HEAVY CONSIDERATION isn't good enough cause you never elaborated on why you considered that beyond a defense of probability and roles which doesn't really explain why you suspect. Why is everyone on your flowchart but Ulti?

It's just a problem of you not having posted enough this game due to being scum, being busy, or both, and not caring to put the work in to unpack it all.
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Plus the fact Ulti and SBell would have stayed after Cam.

So it would be Ulti and SBell lynching Cam. Cam wanting to lynch either you or idk SBell I guess. And literally nobody looking at me.

(In this hypothetical Sheep flipped town)

Lopen posted...

Why is everyone on your flowchart but Ulti?

Because I town read him.

Lopen posted...

You really haven't though.

I have explained it and you refuse to accept it.

That's just a fact dude.

You keep saying "obscure roles" and it's simply a misrepresentation of my perspective. You both seemed like potential scum, the situation was not impossible, I considered it.

Your inability to get over this simple concept is getting ridiculous.

Don't build a case on sbell. There is no case.

Don't waste towns time with trying to lynch someone with flavor confirming scan and alignment confirming scan. That's just asinine.
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Like, you are never going to agree with my decision. There is nothing I can "explain" that is going to make you go "ohhh. Now it makes sense!" Your fundamental approach to the game is different from mine and you will never accept my decision as valid. Period.

What you need to realize is that - there are going to be town players whose perspective will never click with you. Why do you think Cam was under constant scrutiny this game despite being a vastly experienced player? People couldn't accept his perspectives on the game.

My reasoning doesn't need to "click" with you and make you feel good. But you do need to acknowledge that my reasoning is my reasoning and that it is town motivated and in no way reasonably scum motivated.

Hey puns.

If you and lopes are town arguing then it's sheep right?

Or do you think it can be Ulti?
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Obellisk posted...

Hey puns.

If you and lopes are town arguing then it's sheep right?

Or do you think it can be Ulti?

Yes.

No.

I mean it CAN be Ulti, but I have to have a town read somewhere and he is most deserving honestly.

turbopuns3 posted...

I mean it CAN be Ulti, but I have to have a town read somewhere and he is most deserving honestly.

He's been very good this game. Maybe not game saving good but I have to say I don't want to smack him. And that's huge.

I've town read him for a while. I don't think I see myself lynching him this game.
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In my perspective the most likely scenario is a Sheep/Lopen scum team. But if it's only 1 then Sheep seems more likely by virtue of giving me basically no reason to think he is town.

It makes a ton of sense if you look at Lopen's approach today.

He went in hard on the "only 1 mafia left" angle. This accomplishes a couple things for him:

1. Let's him call sheep town
2. Let's him attack me instead of sheep

And he was also hard pressing the "if there's 2 scum I HAVE to be one, so lynch me". This is also conveniently a way to give Sheep a chance to win the game. Lopen knows that if Sheep flips mafia and the game doesn't end, that damns him.

So he went all in on an angle that tried to attack me and protect Sheep and ensure that if they both go down, he dies first.

And if there's only 1 scum I think it's more likely Sheep. So that's why I started talking about Sheep when you and Ulti were agreeing to lynch Lopen.

And I mean while I'm at it. If Ulti is scum, he is never teammates with Lopen here I don't think.

Guys, just go to page 4 of last topic and ctrl + f Camarija

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77843172?page=3

turbopuns3 posted...

Guys, just go to page 4 of last topic and ctrl + f Camarija

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77843172?page=3

@Obellisk
@UltimaterializerX

Another reason why Sheep is more likely if there's only 1 scum is that if Lopen is the last scum I don't think it makes a lot of sense for him to totally handwave Sheep completely and laser focus me. Especially once it's clear people aren't lynching me.

turbopuns3 posted...

So it would be Ulti and SBell lynching Cam

If Cam flips scum this is not a problem though.

This should only influence your thought processes if you thought town Sheep implied town Cam, which you've not actually said was implied.
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Like the crux of why that doesn't make sense is your'e saying "if Cam is town I don't want Ulti and SBell autolynching him"

How is the solution to that issue to just lynch Cam yourself?
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Lopen posted...

turbopuns3 posted...

So it would be Ulti and SBell lynching Cam

If Cam flips scum this is not a problem though.

This should only influence your thought processes if you thought town Sheep implied town Cam, which you've not actually said was implied.

Huh.

This is a hypothetical where I'm the last scum ergo cam is town.

turbopuns3 posted...

Ulti and SBell are the two most stubborn players in the game. By far.

And, if they are both scum, we already lost, so well done guys if that's the case.

Thus, I think Cam, and not Sheep, is the most likely to be lynched ultimately. Also, if Cam is town, thank goodness we can finally look at what he said through a clear lense.

In my gut, the HB/Sheep slot deserves lynch more. But. Cam will continue to be a distraction, if not lynched.

It is a hypothetical that mirrors your exact 'justification' for voting Cam, that's why I'm asking that
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Like I was explaining why if I was scum lynching Cam would have left me worse off than lynching Sheep assuming they're both town.

Lopen posted...

It is a hypothetical that mirrors your exact 'justification' for voting Cam, that's why I'm asking that

And I'm illustrating how me lynching Cam makes no sense if I was mafia.

They're identical lynches. You're autotown by Ulti. All you need to do is ensure one of me or Sheep (or Cam) gets lynched today and you win. Sheep is implicated by town Voldemort and I said I wouldn't necessarily lynch Cam today and was more on Sheep, so Sheep being alive now gets you 3/5 easy votes, Cam gets you 2/5.
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