Board 8 > English Literature Mafia Topic 23: Foreshadowing Pays Off

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lopen posted...

If Cam flips scum this is not a problem though.

This should only influence your thought processes if you thought town Sheep implied town Cam, which you've not actually said was implied.

Lopen posted...

Like the crux of why that doesn't make sense is your'e saying "if Cam is town I don't want Ulti and SBell autolynching him"

How is the solution to that issue to just lynch Cam yourself?

This train of thought is still relevant no matter how it relates to your hypothetical or not by the way. Do you have an answer to this?
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Lopen posted...

Cam gets you 2/5.

You realize I have a vote right

Yes but you've said Cam is town many times, not so much with Sheep. It's harder for you to justify the vote and still look squeaky clean. Sheep you might not even have to vote.
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Lopen posted...

Lopen posted...

If Cam flips scum this is not a problem though.

This should only influence your thought processes if you thought town Sheep implied town Cam, which you've not actually said was implied.

Lopen posted...

Like the crux of why that doesn't make sense is your'e saying "if Cam is town I don't want Ulti and SBell autolynching him"

How is the solution to that issue to just lynch Cam yourself?

This train of thought is still relevant no matter how it relates to your hypothetical or not by the way. Do you have an answer to this?

The first quote block I can't understand your point. "If Cam flips scum this is not a problem" but the situation I was talking about was a hypothetical assuming Cam was town? So like how do I address this point, it doesn't make sense to me.

turbopuns3 posted...

The first quote block I can't understand your point. "If Cam flips scum this is not a problem" but the situation I was talking about was a hypothetical assuming Cam was town? So like how do I address this point, it doesn't make sense to me.

I'm saying if Cam is town lynching him yesterday is worse than him potentially being lynched today. Lynching him yesterday does not solve any sort of problem in a hypothetical where he is town unless you think town Sheep implies town Cam.
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Lopen posted...

Yes but you've said Cam is town many times, not so much with Sheep. It's harder for you to justify the vote and still look squeaky clean. Sheep you might not even have to vote.

The point was Ulti and SBell were super locked into Cam, it seemed to me. Ulti for sure for sure was. SBell seemingly too since basically all of his content that day was "Cam=scum" so like why would he change.

And you're not giving enough credit to the fact I was also autotown in Cam's eyes. That is worth more than being able to predict who he'd ultimately vote, in some ways.

I think you see Cam as more dynamic than Ulti. Ulti is your pawn. Cam is a guy who could be whimsical.
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Well you're free to think that Cam is whimsical.

Can we please talk about how Sheep hasn't taken a stance on anything at all today.

Sheep hasn't done anything and it's making me more and more hesitant that I was correct in saying you were scum. If you see town/town interaction here the correct play is to put your head down.
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Chris day 1

HB's reasoning for digging my post and his thoughts backing up why it stood out and giving me the benefit of the doubt just... seem off.

Actually this is reminding me of a game I played earlier this year where someone did that, let's vote HB.

Unvote:
vote: HB

So I find it kind of funny that people are hardcore attacking my Ben logic as if it was anything more than an early game hunch to get the ball rolling more. I still don't like the play from Ben but it was never meant to be substantive and stand the test of time on its own.

Also no more than 1/3 of the people on me are scum and it is just as likely it is 0/3, and HB's whole "Yeah respect Chris and give him importance but also not really interact with Chris and act like he is important in a interactive way!" is familiar to me from a scum handbook. So I feel better about this vote.

Feeling great about Tom, great about Lopen (especially if this vote is right), good about Ulti, Puns, Cam and decent about Luis, Corrik, and Lea.

Good place to start.

Also note that town list near the end. We can forgive him about Luis considering what happened later.

I also like chains because if HB is scum there is 0% chance Ulti and Lopen are scum, and from there I gain more insight. Like people trying to shade Lopen when Lopen has been low key very pro town (it is low key though so if I don't respect your skill you'll get a pass for not noticing) are probably next on my list.

Which means we might have Red vs Chris because if my previous two deduction of HB and Lopen are right then him soft attacking Lopen given his intelligence is "UH OH"

Chris literally wrote sonic the hedgeghog fanfiction in this game.

Tom did specifically cite Chris's town reads in topic 19 before he died. Maybe that was a hint.
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Tom Bombadil posted...

I keep coming back to how he tagged Cam and Lopen as good people to lead town

Post 176 specifically.

If he had referred to that post in particular it removes a lot of potential targets given who was alive and who was confirmed

In fact if you remove the town reads from that post it would come down to Sheep and SBell. Course if it was that post specifically (it's not, since he didn't say we should lead town there) the vote from Chris on Hb is even more interesting.
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And on the other side, SBell was of course double confirmed at that point, so he seems like a poor target compared to HB who was just flavor confirmed.

I really do think Tom is the solution to this game. No way Tom is manually targeted by mafia there. He got the right guy.
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Eh, screw it, I'm down for a sheep lynch today. I can be wrong. I was wrong with Ben, and it's possible I'm wrong with puns.

At this point I have more faith in my ability to sway Ulti in a Lopen/Puns/Ulti final 3 than I do that I'm 100% right the last scum has to be puns. And I know, this is incredible to consider considering Ulti has long wanted me dead. But I think "what would Tom do" is a fairly strong defense of me to the point where even Ulti might have some pause. Of course that only applies once we're sure it's one scum, so it doesn't work today, but I'm positive there is one scum. If you think there are two scum, you should lynch me. And you should only think there are two scum if you think I'm scum.

I mean if you guys still want to lynch me that's fine I do think it's technically speaking "smart" but I do think lynching Sheep + Puns is a slam dunk win and lynching just puns is... honestly, not as slam dunk anymore? Town sheep isn't playing this way. Hell even the man they call Survivor SBell is trying harder than him.

Speaking of Survivor. SBell you should want to find the scum today because they're shooting you tonight. Your game is on the line here bud.
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So that HB train day 1

If you read through it

-Chris votes
-Lea and myself same time post join it
-Tom joins it
-Pez shows up and is like "oh hmm Idk about HB I would have to reread to decide"
-Lopen agrees with the lynch
-red attacks chris's reasoning and calls us all sheep
-corrik joins the lynch
-death arrives and is ambivalent, saying we should give HB a chance to talk first
-HB eventually claims
-Sultan calls HB scum

etc.

Like when you're reading through it, literally it is supported by 100% of the dead town who showed up and it is questioned or attacked by 100% of the dead mafia who showed up

Ben is eventually the first player to say HB is town (because he claimed "Vanilla" and not "Villager"). Though note that Ben died saying lynch sheep.

Death votes HB with no words used at all, simply quoting the words "Town Vanilla" by HB's claim post

##Unvote:
##Vote: Sheep

I forgive you, turbopuns3. Can you forgive me. Well, I think you can. Ulti though. That guy does not forgive. Freakin Soul Mafia man.

It's up to you and SBell.

Let us bury the hatchet and find the scum we should have found 2 goddamn days ago (if Sheep is the last scum we're going to have words about percentage plays let me tell you between Cam and Lea)
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I mean I truly did want to lynch Sheep over Lea. When Lea tried to special Cam, it fucked us up because that made Ben and me vote Lea instead of sheep. Then the clock just ran out.

And I mean. If it's correct that sheep is the last scum. I'm obviously not gonna try to say lynching Cam was correct but it was at least....well, fuck it we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

I certainly won't be proud of it.

Ultimately we're at the point where I just don't want to throw the game. Playing martyr would be throwing the game if you actually are town. Or at least, trying my hardest to.

Arguably this is throwing the game if you're scum but I think I can dig out of this if it comes to that. I can blame all of you and say what a genius I was for identifying puns as scum without any of the risk it's great.

Seriously though WWTD is the main thing giving me enough pause. If Tom really is following Chris's reads, and it stands to reason from his posts he was, Hb is just the obvious provoke target
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If Sheep is lynched and the game doesn't end that's the final 3. I don't want that but it's just a matter of course.

Sheep being a flavor trap makes sense if he's town but that was never why I took him off the board to begin with so what does that matter? I would hardly say I spent "all day" doing that. I never called puns scum by Poe or anything lame like that. I called him scum because I found him scummy.

Hey Ulti if I'm scum who is my scummate?
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So you think it's one of my two suspects but think I'm trying to convince you of the wrong one

You're so close to figuring the game out here. Bury those biases you have because you've only seen my good scum games and move on from it. You've been reaching for a case on me this whole game.
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Ulti I will ask you the most important question.

How is Sheep town?

Took about 20 minutes. Stratham could do better.
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Compare Lopen's play today with Sheep's play today. How is Sheep more likely to be town?

This day is going to come down to my vote...

Oh god.
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Really though saying it was a 180 on sheep is very misleading

It was like a 12 degree turn. Sheep and puns were in the same direction anyway. I didn't ever call Sheep town today. I said there is one scum and the most likely scum is puns. I've readjusted that to... Well, not entirely sure it's not most likely puns, but being unsure enough that I'd rather roll the dice on trying to lynch both puns and sheep than playing martyr in the name of slam dunking puns
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UltimaterializerX posted...

The scan paired with Lopen's IT'S A FLAVOR TRAP is so hard to look past.

It must be considering I've hardly talked about that today
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I mean there has to be a flavor godfather unless I'm the only mafia. That wasn't wrong.

Sheep if he's town Cam IS a flavor trap but I mean Cam could just be a flavor hint too. I never used that to exonerate sheep
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Honestly? The scan paired with Lopen's IT'S A FLAVOR TRAP is so hard to look past.

What are you saying? That Lopen is scum and Sheep is town and Lopen is straight up telling us Sheep is town?

Or am I misunderstanding.

It's sheep and Lopen.

I mean come on. Lopen waffles and then ends up on sheep when he sees keeping him alive makes him look bad. So hell lynch sheep in hopes that hell look better in a final 3 since getting us to mislynch puns is clearly not going to happen.

Lopen has been good at being manipulative this game. He speaks to you in a way where you are insulted but also respect him at times for it. It's weird. I don't feel safe with him.

@turbopuns3 who would you rather flip today? Sheep who is also on borrowed time or Lopen who should have been dead by now probably?
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Obellisk posted...

So hell lynch sheep in hopes that hell look better in a final 3 since getting us to mislynch puns is clearly not going to happen.

I simply see no reason to lynch me anymore. Sheep's non-content today along with looking into Tom and puns looking into his lynch has put enough doubt in my head that I'm doubting the merit in playing martyr to try and play up the viability of lynching Puns.

If sheep flips town, I made an error in judgment and it actually is puns (or maybe it is Ulti-- how dumb is this guy going to play and get a free pass for it I mean really). I'm probably screwed either way but I see that as more winnable overall.

There's no way sheep flips scum and the game doesn't end though. If you think that's likely then I should be lynched because the only viable 2 man scum teams include me. And it's not because of Ulti's stupid "mathematical possibility" it's because two flavor godfathers is stupid. Very simple. My vote not having a risk of being hammered was something I knew going in.
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Lynching Lopen is the optimal play today. We basically cannot lose today if we lynch him and he's said as much himself. I'm fairly sure SBell can only possibly be solo scum due to the lack of quick hammers with earlier votes, and if Puns is scum it has to be with Lopen unless he's also solo (which could explain the quick ol' switcheroonie Lopen has done just now). Plus I'm fairly confident Ulti is Town (as I think just about everyone is?)

##Vote: Lopen

I'm sorry for my complete lack of activity today. I've been far busier than I'd expected recently and it's not really fair on anyone else. I'm hoping this lynch just wins it although I'm not exactly banking on it
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Oh Ulti voted Lopen while I was typing that too

##Unvote
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I think it's very possible Lopen slipped up in telling us there's only one left, because town has little to no reason to actually think that right now

Wait, what?

Why would you say this? I explained why town has every reason to believe this several times today.
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I can just about echo everything Ulti said, nothing I can see is wrong there. Lopen is the best lynch today and is probably the one aside from me you would not want as town to be in the final three (which is all but guaranteed to happen if we don't lynch him. Also, that's all not because I wouldn't trust him to vote correctly but because it's very unlikely he wouldn't get lynched in an F3 of Puns/SBell/Lopen.
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I know I'm town and so know that if there can only be two scum if I'm scum, there aren't two scum. Crazy!

That's not a slip that's just basic logic
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Like it's not "if you think there are two scum lynch me and you might be right"

It's "if you think there are two scum you are wrong, but you should probably lynch me to put your mind at ease"
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Sheep007 posted...

I'm fairly sure SBell can only possibly be solo scum due to the lack of quick hammers with earlier votes,

Not true. Every vote either was made by or was placed on lopen, therefore nobody can be confirmed as "must be solo if scum" because nobody can logically be ruled out from being scum with Lopen

Anyway now I really am thinking it could be Ulti. This guy was preaching at me for telling red to skip posts and it's looking like he just hasn't been reading anything or really trying to solve the game. I don't think he's changed a read all game, just parks his vote on a lynch and does nothing with it. No one just autohammer tomorrow that's all I'm saying. Think about the game carefully. No one is confirmed town. Whoever played the last scum slot has done well.

Ulti has been playing the safe path all game. I think he's overjustified his vote on me to the point where it almost seems scummy, too. Researching a Cartel vs Mafia incident in Soul Mafia shouldn't do anything to confirm I'm scum from someone who isn't digging into it with bias out of the gate-- like in mafia I post so much you could probably pick whatever you want to fit whatever narrative you want to spin, which to me feels like the more likely thing to do rather than legitimately trying to obtain a lead from that. "Hey guys I was wrong, again, but look I thought about it."

SBell is... well, obvious why you could argue he's been scum. He hasn't done anything all game.

Puns just reread what I've been saying today.

Sheep, reread what puns said today, and what I've said previous days.

I think overall it's probably puns or sheep, but don't rule out SBell or Ulti. Really try and digest the game. I know this spreading paranoia does no good but I just don't have a rock solid lead on who the scum are right now. I think if you do simple comparisons of who was on what lynches the past 3 days it might be helpful, but yeah.

Scum probability is probably puns > sheep > Ulti > SBell but small margins. There should be no autowin flowchart here. Solve the game. Look at what little information we can get from the votes. I broke down the previous vote days on post 40 or so of this topic. Amusingly Cam was voted by all 4 of you yesterday and the three on sheep were me + two confirmed town, so that should be a red flag that maybe I'm not the scum here, but *shrug
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Obellisk posted...

@turbopuns3 who would you rather flip today? Sheep who is also on borrowed time or Lopen who should have been dead by now probably?

I would rather lynch sheep.

It's like what MZero said at end of WWE mafia. Like if we lost to scum sheep our reaction would be "wow good job doing nothing and watching town destroy itself" which is a good sign you can probably just safely vote him.

I'll lose sleep if we lose to sheep lol. He's been a vote away from dead on multiple days. Chris nailed HB day 1. Ben died saying lynch sheep. 5tar died saying lynch sheep.

Like I will just tip my hat to anyone else but I really don't see how I can not kill sheep today.

And remember, this may be the most important thing.

If you think Tom used unscanned as his tiebreaker, he probably drew a kill from Puns, but Cam and Lea were unscanned as well so this seems less likely
If you think Tom used the judgment of Chris as his tiebreaker, he probably drew a kill from Sheep

I would say based on content Tom showed more inclination towards the latter, honestly, and that would have removed more potential targets and made it Sheep and only Sheep, so if you trust in Tom, Sheep is the guy.
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