Board 8 > The Coronavirus Topic

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https://news.yahoo.com/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-195800282.html

This could affect 70% of humanity. I highly doubt that.

Moonroof posted...

https://news.yahoo.com/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-195800282.html

This could affect 70% of humanity. I highly doubt that.

Why do you doubt that

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I think with technology at the place its at nowadays, we wont have a disease affect that many people ever. I could be wrong, but I think once it gets big enough (whatever big enough is), massively more efforts will be made to stop it from getting that high.

Moonroof posted...

I think with technology at the place its at nowadays, we wont have a disease affect that many people ever. I could be wrong, but I think once it gets big enough (whatever big enough is), massively more efforts will be made to stop it from getting that high.

Most expert estimates i have seen have 60% to 80% of worldwide population being affected.

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I guess well see.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232276183305400320?s=20

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The UK is warning people that have recently returned from Italy to self quarantine. Its insane that they think they can trust Joe Public to just stay inside for a few weeks and thatll stop this potentially fatal virus. Like what the actual fuck.


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Stock market is down 2,000 points since yesterday. Maybe thatll make people take it more seriously.

At least it ain't a zombie outbreak.

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https://www.foxnews.com/health/man-coronavirus-china-whiskey-honey

Old school remedy.

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I know that guy. Hes a total ass. Hes one of those guys that has fake personas and apparently that was one of them. Hes called Connor and hes a knob.

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It seems to me that quarantine isn't really an effective tool despite being a cool and official sounding word. There's so many people that have this thing and they are travelling everywhere. Even if you were to control an identified group of infected people, someone else is going to visit your country with the virus and infect people and the infections start all over again.

Moonroof posted...

I think with technology at the place its at nowadays, we wont have a disease affect that many people ever. I could be wrong, but I think once it gets big enough (whatever big enough is), massively more efforts will be made to stop it from getting that high.

Like I don't think there's really "massive efforts" that can be made to stop it at this point... it's just going to keep spreading. If you keep trying to quarantine people who get it then the quarantines will never end.

It seems to me that this is gonna spread and infect who its gonna infect

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Alot of people I know think this will just blow over or its just the flu. Not a care in the world. Im in central California.

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I'm officially scared

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https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

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CoolCly posted...

It seems to me that quarantine isn't really an effective tool despite being a cool and official sounding word. There's so many people that have this thing and they are travelling everywhere. Even if you were to control an identified group of infected people, someone else is going to visit your country with the virus and infect people and the infections start all over again.

Like I don't think there's really "massive efforts" that can be made to stop it at this point... it's just going to keep spreading. If you keep trying to quarantine people who get it then the quarantines will never end.

It seems to me that this is gonna spread and infect who its gonna infect

Well quarantine was supposed to stop the spread of it. After it broke containment, it's basically a done story now. They think this will be an all year long flu now basically due to it breaking containment. Impossible to stop the spread now.

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The SNK World Championship in Japan has been postponed indefinitely over coronavirus concerns. This event, which would have capped off months of Samurai Shodown and King of Fighters XIV competition, was originally scheduled for late March. The CDC recently placed Japan on Alert in response to the diseases spread.

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It is looking very much like the Olympics will be cancelled based on the latest comments from the IOC.

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You left out the most important part:

It's a statement by Dick Pound.

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Like, I don't know if you guys watched the video of the Iranian Deputy Health Minister above but I mean if this dude was telling me everything was okay I would be running for the borders lol.

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1232285658028396549?s=20

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Everything is alright.
wipes head from sweat repeatedly

the revelation of him having the virus was a case everyone expected but laughed after that show.

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https://twitter.com/NegarMortazavi/status/1232391116617547776?s=20

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Lol they don't need to worry about having it.
They do.


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Corrik7 posted...

Like, I don't know if you guys watched the video of the Iranian Deputy Health Minister above but I mean if this dude was telling me everything was okay I would be running for the borders lol.

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1232285658028396549?s=20

So I guess that interviewer and those guys in that other room are screwed?

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also i wasn't kidding.

https://twitter.com/AP_Sports/status/1232316401773416448

the IOC member who said it, the 2nd longest running IOC organizer, is named Dick Pound.
Trojan couldn't help but reply.
swear to god we're running a simulation.

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lordjers posted...

So I guess that interviewer and those guys in that other room are screwed?

yep.
and potentially more higher up in the government. potentially anyone he's met with in the past month because who knows when he got it.


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SK up to over 1000 infections, Chile suspects they've got 260, and Algeria rumored to have 1.
if true, this summer is gonna be fun. beaches and pools are gonna be walking death.

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Wanglicious posted...

SK up to over 1000 infections, Chile suspects they've got 260, and Algeria rumored to have 1.
if true, this summer is gonna be fun. beaches and pools are gonna be walking death.

Brazil has one also. France, Spain, Switzerland, Croatia, Germany all got their first cases or new cases.


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What is the case fatality rate for the flu? Someone is telling me 5% and I find that very hard to believe.

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Seasonal flu only.

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What is the mortality rate of this thing?

SwiftyDC posted...

What is the case fatality rate for the flu? Someone is telling me 5% and I find that very hard to believe.

Flu is .1%

Coronavirus is estimated at .3-2.2% so far.

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the mortality will depend a lot on region too.
Iran is stupidly high, their mortality rate is over 16% now.

for us, expect it to be what corrik said. that said, do stock up on medicine, water, and canned food as that shit's running out already.

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N95 masks are recommended

That said, iran's numbers are definitely not accurate.


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i mean they're extreme. SK is on the opposite end right now, hovering around 1%, and Italy's around 2.6%. these are much more likely our numbers but for the third world, Iran's accurate. it is lethal over there.

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The death rate can't be accurately stated until it's run the course anyways. It usually starts to kill around week 3. So having 100 cases and 0 deaths means nothing if it's early. It seems the older are more likely to die earlier in the cycle tho. All of Italy's deaths have been the elderly so far.

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How is he getting 5%?

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That would mean if 25 kids catch the flu, atleast one dies? Lol no way.

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At this point those takes honestly seem like denial. The flu does not shut down multiple countries. It does not make a $1.3 trillion market crash.

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SwiftyDC posted...

How is he getting 5%?

By not doing things right. Most flu cases are not confirmed because not many go to the doctors for it.

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Flu cases are astronomically high. Like millions of people get the flu. Thats why people saying the flu is more dangerous are morons or fools and should be treated as such.

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jesus christ.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/23/coronavirus-impact-france-sees-tourism-numbers-fall-by-30percent-to-40percent.html

this was dated a few days ago but the effects of 12 confirmed cases and 1 death cost France 30-40% of its tourism. that is brutal.

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So we had the first case here in Greece. A woman but she isn't in a serious condition. Well makes sense. We are next to Italy which has a lot of cases.

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I am quitting the stock market for now
I mean, I had only 30% inside before it started getting so downhill, but even a 10% loss from 30% is a lot to take
This is too much for me, too much emotional impact

My only concern is missing out on the market recovery. Looking at December 2018, the market recovery was pretty fast and brutal. Anyone buying at the bottom can make a lot of $$$ and fast
But knowing when we will reach the bottom..yeah...this is another problem

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Nanis23 posted...

I am quitting the stock market for now
I mean, I had only 30% inside before it started getting so downhill, but even a 10% loss from 30% is a lot to take
This is too much for me, too much emotional impact

My only concern is missing out on the market recovery. Looking at December 2018, the market recovery was pretty fast and brutal. Anyone buying at the bottom can make a lot of $$$ and fast
But knowing when we will reach the bottom..yeah...this is another problem

Why would you pull out now? If anything you should have pumped into the market yesterday unless you feel it's gonna tank more. Ride out bottoms and add more in bottoms.

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Case in California near the quarantined military area. Has no travel links. Possibly community spread. CDC now putting out more tests.

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some Chinese news, since we haven't done that in a while:

as for the numbers, internal documents leaked showing a margin of error that's up to 52 times. epoch times:
https://tinyurl.com/wokyada

if you're getting paywall'd, here:
https://archive.is/pl9Eg

Each day from Feb. 9 to Feb. 23, Shandong authorities underreported the number of infections, according to internal data compiled by the Shandong Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). The CDC kept a tally of the number of people who tested positive for the virus during nucleic acid testingusing a diagnostic kit to test patient samples and detect whether they contain the viruss genetic sequence.

The CDCs daily new infection numbers ranged from 1.36 times to 52 times greater than the officially published data by the Shandong health commission and Chinas National Health Commission.

As of Feb. 25, the Shandong government stated that there were a total of 755 infections in the province. But the internal document showed that 1,992 people had tested positive for the virus via nucleic acid testing as of Feb. 23.
The government publicly stated that there were four newly diagnosed coronavirus patients on Feb. 22, but the internal document said that there were 61 positive tests that day.

In recent days, official data has shown new infections leveling off. For example, on Feb. 25, the National Health Commission reported only a total of nine new diagnosed cases outside of Hubei province, where the outbreak is most severe.

In fact, Shandong alone had new infections in the double-digits daily. On Feb. 20, new infections spiked, with 274 people testing positive.

Shandong Data

The internal data shared with The Epoch Times includes a breakdown of diagnostic results from all 16 prefectural-level municipalities in Shandong province, which had been sent in an email to the disease control department of the Shandong health commission.

The Shandong CDC compiles daily statistical reports about coronavirus diagnoses, tallying positive test results at all hospitals in the province that were qualified to conduct such testing.

For example, on Feb. 22, Qishan Hospital in Yantai citya dedicated infectious disease facilitytested 229 patients; 12 were diagnosed with the coronavirus.

At times, the Shandong government reported just one or two new positive tests to the public, when the internal data showed many more.

On Feb. 22, for example, the government reported two new cases from a day prior, while the actual number was 59, while on Feb. 20, the government also reported two new cases for Feb. 19, but the real data was 49.
And on Feb. 19, one new case was reported, compared with 52 actual positive tests.

For the period from Feb. 8 to Feb. 22, While the government said there were 347 newly diagnosed cases, the internal data shows 1,072 new patientsmore than three times the published figure.

so that's our first official leak of true numbers. from 61 to 4. from there's no new infections to just having 274 five days before. not mentioned in the above article is that a prison in Shangdong was also confirmed to having it, so they're all fucked. that story, along with the above one, are both in a daily mail article.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8047793/Coronavirus-outbreak-52-TIMES-worse-one-Chinese-province-officials-admit-report-claims.html

for some other news:
reinfection news has been spreading a LOT in the past week.

• there's reports of 14% of all Guangdong recovered patients being carriers again.
• this matches up with other reports of reinfections occurring, including one Japanese woman.
• "From Saturday, all patients who had recovered and been discharged had to be sent to designated places for two weeks of quarantine and medical observation, the citys coronavirus treatment and control command centre said on Weibo, Chinas equivalent of Twitter."

some new papers to be mentioned here.
first, a hong kong paper, where i got that quote from. somewhat mixed reviews in terms of pro-china and anti-china, but does seem to get their facts accurately usually:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after

though you can find that quanratine info in other, state sponsored media. like this one:
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/22/WS5e513071a31012821727984e.html

the 14% reinfection rate for guangdong number is new, mainly seen in the straitstime. this is Singapore's main newspaper.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-discharged-patients-in-guangdong-test-positive-again

About 14 per cent of patients who recovered from the coronavirus and were discharged from hospitals in southern China's Guangdong province were tested positive again in later check-ups, according to the local health authority.

Similar cases of recovered patients testing positive have been reported elsewhere in China. Last week, a patient discharged after recovering in Sichuan province's Chengdu city was readmitted after testing positive again. The health authorities in Hainan also confirmed that some recovered patients had tested positive again.

and they're the ones who i saw the Tokyo reinfection, with the original source being the government in Osaka and reported by Reuters.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japanese-woman-reinfected-with-coronavirus-weeks-after-initial-recovery

TOKYO (REUTERS) - A woman working as a tour bus guide in Japan tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, Osaka's prefectural government said on Wednesday (Feb 26), the first person in the country to be reinfected amid growing concerns about the spread of the infection.

The second positive test comes as the number of confirmed cases in Japan rose to 186 by Thursday from around 170 the day before.

I don't understand how the Chinese numbers dropped off so dramatically so quickly tbqh.

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Corrik7 posted...

Why would you pull out now? If anything you should have pumped into the market yesterday unless you feel it's gonna tank more. Ride out bottoms and add more in bottoms.

Yesterday was supposed to be the long awaited "fix"
And it was...for a moment. NASDAQ was up 2%. Apple, Microsoft and Amazon were all +3%
Then a sell off happened again. NASDAQ barely held up.
And it was all probably hoping for Trump speech
Seeing as how the speech was useless, NASDAQ futures currently shows -1.5%
I doubt it will be over soon

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oh totally. they were blatantly lying on that.

like... sure, the rest of the world is getting MASSIVE cases and somehow your numbers are down to like 10-20% what it was two weeks ago? and this is as you start finding massive numbers who are reinfected too? uh huh.

..but i still wasn't expecting a potential 52x gap in numbers. like take the numbers there - 61 to 4 is a 15x gap, 1992 to 755 is a 2.6x gap, 274 to 9 is a 30.4% gap. even that last one defied my expectations. the range is just too big, we definitely need more info to help narrow it, though double digit percentage is expected.


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