Board 8 > Discussing Mafia Mafia Topic 12: The Cult of Personality

(+) Yeah! (+)

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I can't really imagine why Scum would have shot Ben. Unless something weird is at play and they shot elsewhere, but with a Bus Driver being dead, that feels negligible to imagine. A Scum Chang killing makes sense but not Ben. Not with all the fingers pointing at him.

If Chang is Town and Ben is Town then I'm confident in Death. Plum looks awful for voting him for King here.

Kirby also came out of gate posting essentially fluff. IGCD looks Scummy as fuck but that's my Townread of him.

Lopen is still obviously Town, so Death just stating he will get Lopen killed today is completely wasteful and condemning, so, he'll be on the chopping block today as he deserves.

Han comes in and shuts it down. Could be distancing

I know that I have the unique perspective of knowing that your theory is wrong.
But this feels like a lazy attempt to throw shade on someone even then.

(I do wonder what Lopens reaction would have been if I got to kill him in part thanks to Plums vote)

Mzero, you seem to be ISOing to support your conclusion instead of ISOing to come to a conclusion

I haven't even reached a conclusion! My initial instinct was to doubt that you would come in D2 and try to kill Lopen, so if anything I was trying to debunk my original idea

and I still think it would be weird for the whole scum team to link each other like that

Its just that I dont remember where your original idea started

I originally had a scum read on you for taking the easy route my trying to kill Lopen (I thought Lopen was town though), then having only rana and myself on your scum list, and you were trying to rationalize ways that ben was killed by scum and thus shading changmas basically

well Lopen flipping scum threw a wrench in there, and then I remembered you tried to campaign on killing him day 2 and now we're here

Honestly dont even know why I said that thing about Ben now
Maybe it was just an ongoing topic. I certainly dont think I brought it up originally

all the "why kill Ben " talk out of scum

and the "vigs never shoot day 1" talk too.

just gives me a "scum just double killed n1 and now needs to "react" to it" vibe.

Time for the Wall Part 4

Instead of ISOing Lopen I wanted to check day4 instead to see how Mzero, Scare and Red handled the Sultan claim and everything that followed.
(and I really wish we knew here whether or not the nightKill was stopped, or the Kill was absorbed by Kirby. I am inclined to believe Kirby didnt lie about it tho)

Red at first just continued his pissing match with Sbell though it was at least about how Sultan probably did block an actual kill.
A page later he did at least start arguing with Lopen instead and called him scum while no-selling all his theories on how Sultan set him up.
A bad part is where he started to wonder if Sultan could be scum after Kirby's claim (while calling Lopen indy).
He still said Lopen was probably caught anyway (for the wrong reasons) and shifts to thinking Kirby as the Indy due to Han suggesting it. But he didnt want to lynch Kirby either.
He didnt comment on Hans claim and kept accusing Lopen of saying garbage instead. But he did say that Han looked bad as well, just not as much as Lopen.
Not fond of his hesitance to King Sultan either, but thats a minor grievance.
In return he did try to ISO plum day4, which implies some level of interest for towns wellbeing.
He did have that moment where he cried about Lopen not dying after the killshot was declared though. Cant have been a reach for towncred, but it was still weird.

Scare asked why he wasnt blocked instead and did nothing else for a while besides noting that Han was shading him.
When he came back he (jokingly) called me scum, and he believed IGCDs claim.
Finally he did start arguing with Lopen on how his theories sounded contradictory.
Then the Kirby claim happened and he started bringing up Han as just being a town goofball screwing around, Lopen as a possible indy. He still believed Sultan at least.
I suppose he could have been trying to salvage Hans reputation from their own mess. Or maybe the plan was for Han to do something so suicidal that he had to be town.
But I think once the backup claim happened, a scumScare would have distanced himself instead.
Also his reasoning sounds halfway similar to my own (except I thought that Lopen had to be the town of the two, heh)
But he loses townpoints for saying he wanted to kill me next regardless of who flips what this day. Hell he even suggested killing me today if nobody wanted to kill Lopen.
Considering scum was gonna flip no matter what, he would have been able to pivot from Lopen to me regardless.
To his credit he seemed to forget about wanting me dead day4
But then again he seemed to forget about wanting anything day5.

(Cont)

Mzero only showed up after Kirby defanged Sultans proof against Lopen, which is unfortunate. He also wanted to know what Kirby did to lure scum, which is interesting (IGCD noted as much)

His biggest posts were these

Lopen: Crescent kill still doesn't feel like a scum Lopen move to me. Also, I could be wrong but my gut tells me retracted fake claims come from town playing hero ball more often than scum. I feel like scum tend to stick to their guns or give up when countered. I have no data to back this up though. Also, Kirby said he lost his BP, so if we believe Kirby and Sultan are telling the truth then Lopen did not send in the kill

Han: He didn't really need to confirm Sultan's claim. Now Sultan is king and scum can't take him out so he's getting at least one more block off. Maybe Sultan gets kinged ether way, but confirming that he was roleblocked N2 certainly didn't hurt. Also, lynch all liars means lynching Lopen

MZero: Incredibly handsome
MZero, to the extreme

I have two major issues with Han's claim. Why wait until night 2 to use his backup when he's a common N1 kill target? If I recall correctly, he even mentioned a few times Day 1 he was likely going to be ded. Bus Driver is actually a power that could safe himself, too. Also, I feel like you shouldn't lose a one-shot power like that from a roleblock

My initial reaction to Lopen retracting his claim was that he's scum, but the more I think about it the more I think I see town retract claims more than scum

I can think of a few times something similar has happened in the past. In f*** 2016 Mafia, Corrik claimed cop and I lightning rodded him and he retracted the claim when I called him out for claiming he called someone else. Town vanilla. Another game Ben claimed psychic or something and backed off when someone caught him lying. Both were town, and I was scum in that Ben game and was so mad he didn't get lynched. I'm sure scum has done it too but I can't think of a single instance

What I'm seeing in my head is Lopen assumed it was a gambit because he knew he didn't send in the kill and tried for a hero play by claiming protection to make Sultan look bad. Then when he got countered he realized he messed up and backed off of it. There's a chance it was a coordinated effort between Sultan and Han, or Han saw an opportunity to make Lopen look bad and took it, but either way it looks bad for Han. That combined with his dubious claim makes me feel like he's the better lynch today.

The last two are alright, but the first one just sounds so waffly. This is also when Mzero started to become a possible kill for Sbell, so it is possible he tried to rescue himself and at least one of Lopen and Han with his 'effort'

Based on this alone I would say scum has to be either Scare or Mzero. I cant rule Red out either, but he at least has the loud arguments with Han from day1.

Mzero also still defended Lopen day5 and that also looks awful yeah
Red looks better there since he still kept refuting Lopens defenses

That does paint mzero in a negative light.

strong defenses on 2 scum.

A pluspoint to ISOs now is that I no longer have to theorize
'maybe these two did this to distance themselves, or maybe this was a team effort'
Not when we have to look for just 1 scum

Obellisk posted...

That does paint mzero in a negative light.

strong defenses on 2 scum.

I wasn't really defending Han. Sultan explicitly asked for reasons not to lynch him so I gave one

Oh right Sultan was King that day, not Sbell

Well the context helps, but it still would have been better if you gave your reasons without needing the Kings prompting

Han-

Town
IGCD
chang
Scare
Lopen
Red

Townish
Sultan

????
MZero
Rana (Sheep)
Plum

Scummish
Tidus
Kirby
Death

Scum
SBell

plum -

Townish
Kirby
Sultan
Death

Scummish
Red
Lopen
Tidus
Sbell

Rule of (4) says red unlikely scum. If death is not scum Han just didn't put any of his team in there. I would imagine plum would put one teammate in his town reads too. Gonna grab Lopen's list

You know its funny but thats not the first time you pulled up those lists

Lopen posted...

Cases and suspect list in order. Bolding entries I would put up for lynch. Italicizing those I think are more likely town than not. People that are neither, not a strong enough read to die preventing the lynch. Kept untouchables to one-- I would not fault you for any other choices, m'lord, with sufficient accountability shown on your end.

Suspect #1 MZero - Set up a double kill by AFK. He claims he trusts me because just lynching MZero would be easy yesterday, but scum Lopen setting up the double kill of Crescent->MZero is just a stronger play. Certainly once Crescent flips town, this is not a claim to make.
Suspect #2 Tidus - The evolution of his suspicion on me makes no sense and feels like he's playing it in a way to seem townlike more than it being authentic. I see no town logic to constantly mentioning your power role and it seems like he's using it as an excuse to do nothing. I suspect he's been coached by scummate to do this because we've seen some horrible scum games from Tidus, basically a way to distract himself from incriminating himself.
Suspect #3 SBell - Went early with a weak case to be king. Has been carefully navigating suspecting me to the point where it feels more like a way to come off as townish rather than genuine thought process.
Suspect #4 Sultan - Jumping around, making too many salient points. I think he lacks the panic he would have as town. At the same time, he has had some completely off the wall reactions like saying Crescent seemed scummy yesterday and then turning around and suspecting me because it was town on town. He seems a bit of a fearmonger more than someone with a consistent thought process, and his reaction to being "set up" with the King vote rubbed me the wrong way too. Doesn't like any king reps, won't suggest his own.
Suspect #5 Death - Similar case to SBell, with one caveat. 1. I feel like after pointing out that I was more suspicious of people giving me a town pass, he continued to back off and SBell intensified. 2. He gave me considerably more flack than SBell for it yesterday, and defended Crescent much more than SBell yesterday.
Suspect #6 Rana/Sheep - Standard inactive. Doesn't really change the basic idea that I think inactive for him = scum or town vanilla. However now that he's replaced, UNTOUCHABLE SHEEP, as I would rather give the slot a chance to play and the inactive lynch is a copout.
Suspect #7 Han - He has been playing the game seeking out scum. He seems power hungry which has motivations as each alignment but I think for a player like him he sees unkillable day vig and becomes Gollum, y'know? Minus loving gameses. Tough to read though.
Suspect #8 Kirby321 - Has contributed a lot, none of it is completely weird and I have prodded him about it with satisfactory responses. Think he'd slip harder by now, but not 100% confident due to lack of exposure. Didn't like his reaction to the king vote orders late in topic 5 but thought SBell, Tidus, and Sultan all looked worse for reacting to it than he did for floating it.
Suspect #9 Plum - In dead town chat in Psych me and Crescent had a lot of talk about town plum. I think this format overwhelming him seems likely, and I appreciate him continuing to be paranoid of me due to that. Scum hammermonger or whatever he was saying about red is another example of paranoia plum. Like he's wrong, but I appreciate it-- I think he'll level out and be a boon to town eventually, when the format gives him a bit more data to digest.
Suspect #10 Chang - Uncountered vig claim that shot a target that seemed reasonable. Think content has been fine. Only problem with him is he seemed overdramatic on the likelihood of losing his vig shot and he overreacted to killing Ben the vanilla calling it a "giga throw." It raises some eyebrows.
Suspect #11 M'lord - M'lord! I'll never forget when you got me through those times. I think if you were scum you would easily just phone it in and win.
Suspect #12 IGCD - Everything he's done has tracked to a consistent viewpoint of someone trying to solve the game at minimum effort to me. I like that he's not overreaching with any cases either.
Suspect #13 red13n - Seems pretty town. Maybe could fake it. Think he would idle more though-- he's high effort faking if he is which doesn't seem likely. Also he actually semi-cooperated with my demands which to me is super town for red, because it was my demand. red dunking on me for the sake of it as scum rather than trying to comply slightly to avert a meltdown seems likely.

Crafty move by Lopen to list 5 suspects to avoid the rule of 3/4. Of course, from my perspective death has to be the scum in there if there is one. I find it amusing all three flipped scum had SBell in their scum pile

htaeD posted...

You know its funny but thats not the first time you pulled up those lists

I know I copied and pasted it from the last time. Lopen hadn't flipped yet though!

MZero posted...

I find it amusing all three flipped scum had SBell in their scum pile

the easy way out.

death's list -

Untouchables
Changmas (just because of the vigclaim really)

Likes
Red (This is mostly gut, I cannot explain it well. But red is doing that thing where I see eye to eye with him a lot)
Scare (Not really lynchable I know, but I got the idea that you care for the game moreso than usual)

Neutral
Lopen (already talked too much about him)
Kirby (Hard to get a bead on, has some weird logic sometimes but good logic at other times)
Sbell (I think he really did put in more effort today, and I have forgotten what he did wrong day1, I may need to look into that)
IGCD (cant read him, seems a little more active than usual, but hasnt done much for me)
Han (His attack on me seems forced. Other than that I dont really have anything against him.)

The suspects
Plum (Generally paranoid about things I dont think town would worry too much about)
Sultan (Here and there Sultan sometimes something I do not understand or do not follow as 'how did he come to this conclusion?'
Tidus (same thing as Sultan really. He looked better day1 IMO)

The big suspects
Mzero (conveniently disappeared day1 and is generally very inactive when scum)
Rana (really now comes across as a player unused to being scum in this new b8 environment the more silent he gets)

as far as I can tell red did not give a list and Scare was king. Bummer

One big problem I've had this game is that basically all the king discussion happens in the 8 hours before deadline AKA when I'm asleep

And looks like it's happening again!

I'm just swamped at work at the moment and can't do a deep dive

I'm not blaming anyone, it just comes with the territory

Anyway

##Vote: changmas

good night

I almost wondered if we should just NL today and King Changmas tomorrow so we can force scum to shoot someone else.
But there are too many variables to rely on a plan like that I guess

MZero posted...

death's list -

as far as I can tell red did not give a list and Scare was king. Bummer

I did give a list, it just took up a couple of posts. It's what lead to the lynchpool but it was my list

no lynch
sbell get nk
5 alive. king chang.
lynch X
Y gets nk

3 alive...
????
profit

sounds good In theory

Sounds dumb. We dont really gain anything. We have two lynches we have a clear two people to lynch just do it

The idea was offered up by one of the two even. Just no.

Leafeon13N posted...

The idea was offered up by one of the two even. Just no.

oh I'm not considering it.

We lynch someone today, and final day it's one of:
death, Red, Scare, mzero. (less which ever one we lynch today).

as much as I want to believe changs shot was scums extra kill, literally nothing from this game substantiates that, especially coming in immediately to admit he did with no fear of a counter.

Anyway, looking back to yesterday. Lopen was not pro king chang, tried to king sbell thinking sbell was still a chance to kill me.

which is odd considering I had clearly towned you at that point.

Chang was an extra nail in the coffin to plum too

Chang is never being lynched today
Feels like the only direction we should go

##King: Chang

Honestly dont care what direction we go for king but we could theoretically be done with the game in 24 hours and i dont see much digging as being necessary. Just murdering.

El hammerino, you kinging chang then?

##king: chang

long may he reign. sorry just woke up

my intent is probably just to reread through the game and try to pick a lynch sometime tonight. The candidates will be MZero, Scare, and to a lesser extent, Death. I'm not sure that an extra 24 hours is really gonna give us anything more than what we have right now.

So all please make your input heard over the next 8 hours or so and let's try and nail this last scum and go home.

Just murder mzero, death if you are feeling cruel, then if we have to we do this again shortly.

Ugh nope we chose poorly.

If you murder Scare and he is town I will outright throw the game by lynching you tomorrow.

Red has made his input known

And this is not me playing to lose, this is me using the threat of playing to lose to try to win. So shush whoever is reading that and crying.

Why is Scare town again Red?
I am willing to hear all second opinions at this point

sxare has certainly looked better as of late, but it's hard to put the killing of the cop past him. especially with the 3rd scum no flipping godfather.

htaeD posted...

Why is Scare town again Red?
I am willing to hear all second opinions at this point

Kirby was theoretically a variation of town chris where he had to name a scum to win the game and failure meant dying and losing.

Leafeon13N posted...

Kirby was theoretically a variation of town chris where he had to name a scum to win the game and failure meant dying and losing.

ok, reading his final post and such, I see what's being said here and would be willing to take Scare off the table.

MZero posted...

##King: changmas

imo scum is in red/Scare/death and you listed two of them as your top reads so you have my sword

MZero posted...

You've already said it's between Lopen, Scare, and me. Obviously I don't want you to kill me and I think I've made my Lopen read very clear

So yeah, kill Scare please. What am I going to say that hasn't been said? He killed the cop and defended Han very hard yesterday. I'd prefer red or death because two godfathers flipping and the kill going through despite Scare being blocked makes him look a little better, but you aren't considering them so Scare it is

yeahhhhhh this doesn't look for Mzero