Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 398: Can't Find a Fetterman

(+) Yeah! (+)

HeroicCrono posted...

Whoa. That's a great idea. Liberals will be paying Elon directly while they think they're hurting him.

lol paying him $8 to drive millions in advertising from the site.

Great plan, Elon.

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1590755434733875201?s=46&t=MQNiNIjFCLg_6qi5hsZSfg

Deep State DeSantis

Problematically, If Kari lake wins then I would bet an extremely large sum of money that Arizonas electors are not going to democrats in 2024

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

lol paying him $8 to drive millions in advertising from the site.

Great plan, Elon.

If Elon and liberals lose money from this, it's like a double win, right?

masterplum posted...

Problematically, If Kari lake wins then I would bet an extremely large sum of money that Arizonas electors are not going to democrats in 2024

The Democrats and Susan Collins really need to rethink their Electoral Count Act reform bill. The governors should not be entrusted with anything like sole authority to say who their state's electors are.

Also, not sure if this would be constitutional, but perhaps Congress could pass a law that if state legislatures want to change their method of choosing electors, they need to do that before the election. Not after. And any change the state legislatures make to elections can't take effect until after the next election under the old system, so that elected representatives can't change the rules to keep themselves in office, like the Long Parliament.

If Congress lacks the constitutional authority to pass such a law, the Supreme Court should issue a rare declaratory judgment saying at least that under the federal constitution, state legislatures can't change the method for choosing electors after an election has already been held.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1590789956846424080?s=21

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1590794421418790935

https://babylonbee.com/news/selfish-desantis-takes-entire-red-wave-for-himself

red_sox_777 posted...

Also, not sure if this would be constitutional, but perhaps Congress could pass a law that if state legislatures want to change their method of choosing electors, they need to do that before the election. Not after. And any change the state legislatures make to elections can't take effect until after the next election under the old system, so that elected representatives can't change the rules to keep themselves in office, like the Long Parliament.

If Congress lacks the constitutional authority to pass such a law, the Supreme Court should issue a rare declaratory judgment saying at least that under the federal constitution, state legislatures can't change the method for choosing electors after an election has already been held.

Uhhh the Supreme Court could be the ones to single handedly give state legislatures all the power in choosing electors with Moore v Harper coming up

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590764793417592833
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590766204620193792
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590766601900478464

Linking the whole thread since it's short and also every part is important, IMO.

lmfao Vermont Dem+7 (Actual Result: Dem+40)

538 a-ranked pollster tho

_Blur_ posted...

Uhhh the Supreme Court could be the ones to single handedly give state legislatures all the power in choosing electors with Moore v Harper coming up

Well, this topic gets confused a lot. It's clear that per the constitution, state legislatures have the power to decide how electors are chosen. Currently, all states use the election method. South Carolina did not do so before the Civil War (instead, the state legislature directly elected electors). There's two real issues here, as far as I can see:

1. Can a state legislature choose electors using a method that is contrary to state law?
2. Can a state legislature change the method of choosing electors after an election has already been held?

1) was discussed in Bush v. Gore but there was no real conclusion reached. In summary, the Florida Supreme Court said that under the Florida Constitution, the Florida Legislature could not do XYZ. The US Supreme Court is bound to respect the ruling of the Florida Supreme Court on matters of Florida law, so they couldn't overturn that directly. However, it was argued in the US Supreme Court that the federal constitution grants the power of choosing electors to the state legislatures and not to the states in general - and thus the power of choosing electors is held by the state legislatures not under the state constitution or any other state law but directly from the federal constitution. In that case, the ruling of the state supreme court wouldn't matter, because the federal constitution would override the state.

2) is what I am saying needs to be clarified (perhaps by SCOTUS). It should be obvious, but apparently isn't, that a state legislature can't say first that the method of choosing electors shall be an election, and then, after seeing the results of the election, change the method of selection.

So in other countries you usually have a polling authority that exists to make sure that poll companies are at least at a certain standard, and they need to make stuff like their weightings publicly available. Im going to take a wild guess and say that America doesnt have that.

LightningStrikes posted...

So in other countries you usually have a polling authority that exists to make sure that poll companies are at least at a certain standard, and they need to make stuff like their weightings publicly available. Im going to take a wild guess and say that America doesnt have that.

There was a polling firm that was run/created/founded by two high schoolers (I am not kidding or exaggerating) that released a poll with extremely dubious results and 538 was like "yeah sure throw it in the average"

so no

Thorn posted...

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590764793417592833
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590766204620193792
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590766601900478464

Linking the whole thread since it's short and also every part is important, IMO.

lmfao Vermont Dem+7 (Actual Result: Dem+40)

538 a-ranked pollster tho

I mean their consistency is why they were ranked highly.

They were nearly perfect if their had been a Republican bias there just wasnt one. That makes their polls extremely useful relatively.

Compare that to a pollster who was all over the place. Those polls would be trash garbage

for all the negatives about content creators being hella screwed over by the whole twitter implosion, at least this is an absolutely superb and much-needed demonstration of the fact that billionaires are not massive big-brained geniuses who must surely know what they're doing

https://twitter.com/parismartineau/status/1590832500628402176

the whole musk twitter saga needs to be in textbooks to teach future generations better

We've already had plenty of proof that billionaires can be idiots, though. What is there to learn from the Musk/Twitter situation that we shouldn't have learned before now?

masterplum posted...

I mean their consistency is why they were ranked highly.

They were nearly perfect if their had been a Republican bias there just wasnt one. That makes their polls extremely useful relatively.

Compare that to a pollster who was all over the place. Those polls would be trash garbage

They are ranked that way because the last elections, they had closer results. He can't change the results to change the ranking if a pollster. Trafalgar used to be like a c+ rated pollster or something before the results kept coming out higher for Republicans than polls indicated.

https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1590724257608134657
https://twitter.com/CaseyNewton/status/1590724259114291201

FTC (and the EU) gonna feast jesus requiring the engineers to basically be lawyers too

Yeah, imagine a stock picker who always gets it wrong. Whatever they predict will go up goes down, and whatever they predict will go down goes up. This person would be of absurdly high value to others, because they would just do the opposite of whatever he recommends and they would always be right.

Also, Nate Silver made this clear. If Trafalgar and Insideradvantage are wrong, that's okay. They are included, and the results will lower their ratings and make their polls worth less. He said, there were pollsters like Monmouth who had a ton of polls done who refused to make their polls public because they were concerned about their image if the polls were wrong. That at least these republican biased ones were confident enough to put out their polls, and if wrong, it would affect their aggregate next time.

Trump going all-in against DeSantis - this is the best thing I've read all week.

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1590842213004869632

Duke it out, shitheads.

Another thing. This was said best on resetera, but the polls did better than the expert skews. The Lite model from 538 was arguably on the money while the Deluxe model which took into account skews and bias was in the margin of error but further off than the polls only lite model.

It's weird because in 2016, everyone here was all about silver and 538 when I took more stock in RCP. Now cuz it did exactly the same formula as 2016 with different results formulating the basis, people are upset about 538 now lol.

YoBlazer posted...

Trump going all-in against DeSantis - this is the best thing I've read all week.

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1590842213004869632

Duke it out, shitheads.

There is zero chance that is real. Lol

And it is. Hahaha. He has no chance at winning. He knows this right?

Crack Head

He avoids punctuation the way i avoided sleep after elden ring came out

Feeling pretty shitty about the Trump scorched earth going on because I think DeSantis is actually a very strong candidate.

Not the man, he's garbage, but his popularity is legitimate. We've crossed the line where Trump is an anchor dragging the party to its death, but I was really hoping they wouldn't cut the rope.

I mean, this is far from the first time they've tried. It's always ended in abject failure and they crawled back in line after a few days before.

Thorn posted...

I mean, this is far from the first time they've tried. It's always ended in abject failure and they crawled back in line after a few days before.

The difference here is Rupert Murdoch has jumped ship, which means his news outlets jump ship.

Losing Murdoch is not something I think he can come back from, if all his networks start pushing DeSantis.

I'd love to be wrong, though.

Lauren Boebert is now ahead by a little over 800 votes. Seems she may hold on to this seat. I wonder if she'll moderate her stance - she is looking at getting voted out in 2024 with a less favorable overall climate for Republicans if she stays on her current path.

He's lost Murdoch's news outlets before too! Temporarily, of course. But again this is far from the first time.

Trump is done. His influence has been in a continuous decline.

Yeah if there is any sort of positive with theses results it seems Trumpism took a big hit.

It's really cute that the GOP thinks they can hastily shove Trump back into pandora's box like nothing happened, after having created a good 20-30% of the population that ONLY want him, and there is truly only one Donald Trump out there

Mark my word, Trump still has a stranglehold over the new voting base that he has curated through the GOP, and they cannot be easily folded back into a standard GOP mold. If the GOP tries to put Trump out to pasture there is going to be a lot of infighting; people are not going to fall in line so easily like they normally do.

So the Boebert situation..is very unsettling right now.

Not that she's winning, that was what was expected! I mean it sucks but it's not abnormal in theory.

But over the last hour or so the CO SoS has announced without explanation that he's sending down a new election Supervisor for review because the guy they assigned...just left on Tuesday night and never came back.

Nobody wants to say what everyone is thinking but the timing line up of a bunch of counties that were heavy D suddenly dumping Boebert ballots and the SoS then sending an overseer to fill a mysteriously abandoned post make me feel like a 2020 moron on the other side and I don't like it.

I'm sure it's nothing but it's bad optics until they say something further.

We desperately need trump to not die for a year

Paratroopa1 posted...

It's really cute that the GOP thinks they can hastily shove Trump back into pandora's box like nothing happened, after having created a good 20-30% of the population that ONLY want him, and there is truly only one Donald Trump out there

Mark my word, Trump still has a stranglehold over the new voting base that he has curated through the GOP, and they cannot be easily folded back into a standard GOP mold. If the GOP tries to put Trump out to pasture there is going to be a lot of infighting; people are not going to fall in line so easily like they normally do.

There'll be infighting, and it will be harsh, but Trump will still be done by the time 2024 rolls around. People who were 'only Trumpers' will be falling in line to vote for the next R. It's how their brains work.

That's really weird. The Colorado SoS is a Democrat though, right? Feels like we'll get to accurate results one way or another.

KamikazePotato posted...

but Trump will still be done by the time 2024 rolls around.

If there's anyone who would try to run third-party just to burn it all down and spite "traitors" it'd be Trump so I wouldn't rule that out if he didn't win the primary anyway - which I still consider him the favorite for.

It's sounding like it was indeed a false alarm and was just some miscommunication.

A very strange past hour looking at a situation like this from the other side of the glass, though. Even if I personally assumed it was nothing, a lot of people didn't from what I could see. People need to take a look at themselves in the mirror when the shoe is on the other foot!

UshiromiyaEva posted...

A very strange past hour looking at a situation like this from the other side of the glass, though. Even if I personally assumed it was nothing, a lot of people didn't from what I could see. People need to take a look at themselves in the mirror when the shoe is on the other foot!

I'm dumb, what's the implication here (if it wasn't a false alarm)? That the guy that disappeared was cheating for Boebert's opponent?

Guys Trump might actually be in trouble

https://twitter.com/tomozcali/status/1590616294491324418?s=46&t=C5jmDxQhL6bf8Jl7N12zJg

Bem Garrison has stopped drawing a version of Trump he is clearly masturbating to

Kenri posted...

I'm dumb, what's the implication here (if it wasn't a false alarm)? That the guy that disappeared was cheating for Boebert's opponent?

Even with the almost non-existant info we had, people assumed that the "supervisor" who left was meant to be some kind of cheat preventing overseer, and they they abandoned post to allow some backdoor shenanigans.

It's the exact same bullshit the MAGA people would spew, so it's dissapointing to see it slip it so easily as a gut reaction when a Republican who had 97/100 odds of winning pulls ahead by triple digits.

But this was just a bunch of Twitter randos, its not like outlets were picking this up....that I know of.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

Guys Trump might actually be in trouble

https://twitter.com/tomozcali/status/1590616294491324418?s=46&t=C5jmDxQhL6bf8Jl7N12zJg

Bem Garrison has stopped drawing a version of Trump he is clearly masturbating to

Boom!

... Is that Fetterman as the face of the dems? the one time I could actually use a Ben Garrison label

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Even with the almost non-existant info we had, people assumed that the "supervisor" who left was meant to be some kind of cheat preventing overseer, and they they abandoned post to allow some backdoor shenanigans.

Ohhh gotcha, thanks!

Grimlyn posted...

... Is that Fetterman as the face of the dems? the one time I could actually use a Ben Garrison label

Instead he labeled the clearly-the-Democratic-Party floatie as Biden, even though it's being used by... also Biden. And the caption mentions Biden.

Really wanted people not to get confused by his shit drawing of Biden, I guess.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

Guys Trump might actually be in trouble

https://twitter.com/tomozcali/status/1590616294491324418?s=46&t=C5jmDxQhL6bf8Jl7N12zJg

Bem Garrison has stopped drawing a version of Trump he is clearly masturbating to

Why does Biden always look so cool in conservative propaganda

Fetterman is an amazing face for the Dems

The republicans got beat soundly in a swing state by a candidate who could barely talk coherently. That's how bad they are

Honestly that image of Biden might be his first drawing that I say actually qualifies as a political cartoon so something must be seriously wrong.

Wake me up, when Nevada ends.