Board 8 > Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Mafia: 2-1 Whatever Happened To Not Being Careless?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Peace___Frog posted...

You know how much i love math, give it to me.

These numbers are not representative of actual confidence, purely for illustrative purposes.

If Plum flips scum, then IGCD flips scum. 70% chance.
If this is true, then the inverse must also be true.
If Plum flips scum, then IGCD flips town. 30% chance.
However, I stated that a town flip would be a null tell, as no actionable information is gained.
If Plum flips town, then IGCD flips scum. 50% chance.
If Plum flips town, then IGCD flips town. 50% chance.

If you average out these numbers, you'll see that scum/scum or town/town is the higher likelihood than town/scum. So when HB came out to ask me specifically so if I have this right, you think theyre a town/scum pair? that is the exact OPPOSITE of my claim. So my response to him was No, a scum/scum pair or a town/town pair. One of them flipping town would be a null tell for me, but flipping scum would make me suspicious of their early interaction.
Me including scum/scum and town/town together here is redundant, but done specifically in response to HB saying the opposite conclusion.

You then stated there was a contradiction about a town flip being a null tell if I think they share alignments. I responded to explain this interaction, and that only a scum flip would be actionable.

I don't think describing how a conditional tell only matters if the flip is scum means that I am "leaving the door open for other lynches."

Where did I change what I said?

i don't know what to make of this Peaf x EDumey thing. Probably going to have to reread Day 1 to have a real opinion there as I feel I'm missing context trying to process it rn

Lopen posted...

The gameplay. If it's just cult as bad Faction we don't just idle at end of d1 when plum is dead to rights

Too many people were content to just sit there meaning you had to have people teamed. If just cult leader then less people are teamed so more panic . Also there was a night kill doesn't cult just recruit.

does that have to be the case? i kinda feel like plum imploded so hard that nobody (myself included) felt there was any way to get truly away from that. SO many people were idle at the end that people teamed can't even explain it. at the absolute max we have 5 people teamed as scum, but way more than 5 people were idle/content with the lynch at the end of the day.

And yeah, Han and I did the math and quickly figured they can't be recruiting every night. We were theorizing a bunch of different options - alternate kill / recruit each night, limited number of recruits, some kind of time gate on recruiting, etc.

So theorycraft for me how cult only works

Kill odd nights recruit even start with 2 or what?

but like...

PunishedBen posted...

Two colossal nations were locked in War.... Keves and Agnus. But none of that matters now because this is mafia and we are going to skip to the part where the true enemy is revealed. Keves and Agnus have teamed up to form the TOWN, and are united against their common enemy - Moebius.

PunishedBen posted...

He was...Johnny Lawrence, TOWN Stubborn Asshole

Ability: You have no idea what the fuck a Moebius is. Is that some new kind of gender? Because of this, you are immune to being recruited by any cults.

does the combination of these two posts by the host not directly imply Moebius is the scum team and Moebius is the cult?

Hey Chang who started talk about cult you or Han

##Unvote

I see the math with the conditional statements. I think where I got hung up is that prior to the corrections it was rather absolute.

Here's the posts in question.

EDumey posted...

No, a scum/scum pair or a town/town pair. One of them flipping town would be a null tell for me, but flipping scum would make me suspicious of their early interaction.

EDumey posted...

No contradiction.
I'm saying I think if one is scum, the chances of the other also being scum is higher. This by default would make town/scum less likely. So if the other flipped town, then town/town would also be higher than town/scum, but not enough that I would try and declare the other confirmed town. So the only "real" info gained is on a scum flip, making a town flip a null tell. It's about what is actionable information or not.

The conditional was unclear even after being explained because of how you ordered it.

Ok so perhaps that all needs a more careful reread.

Star is obviously still in the scum seat, but I'm going to back off a bit and let this Ulti thing play out.

Lopen posted...

So theorycraft for me how cult only works

Kill odd nights recruit even start with 2 or what?

I think starting with 1 is untenable because if they get lynched day 1 the game is over and everyone is mad.

some of these are pretty off the wall and possibly non-starters, but this is all the stuff i was coming up with last night

So starting with at least two, you could do:

your suggestion - kill odd nights, recruit even, start with 2 (although you can still lose in 2 days here)

finite number of recruitments per game - can vary starting number with however many recruitments you want

timegate the recruitment mechanic - unlock one immediately, another after 2 days, a third after 4 days, etc. (or also a finite number in total)

only one person can recruit - 'cult recruiter', if they die they can't recruit any more, then give town a role to find this person. could combine this with something else.

they have to recruit specific people, it can't just be anyone - like for example something like JC's role would be tapped for recruitment so they can't just ignore him and let him die and recruit someone else. idk how this works exactly

maybe cult is scum and the night kills are from 3p like an SK. This would be super wacky and not sure it works at all though

Lopen posted...

Hey Chang who started talk about cult you or Han

me

but he agreed with the point I made in post #105 and discussed the possibilities with me a bit

So here was my theory on setup

1. Cult leader single, max 3 recruits, recruits every night. This fits perfectly with JC's gambit. Once we kill him for lying he's thrown his recruits out so he's in position to win despite being lynched.
2. Traditional scum team. Probably 4 strong. Don't really think solo cult team makes sense.

Who threw out the only cult team theory no scum. You or Han?

also me, all based off the logic from Ben's posts

Can you name a single or multiple theories attributable to Han?

changmas posted...

The most likely conclusion we came to was that a different town member put us together to try and have us work together

Who suggested this one?

Peaf correct me if I'm wrong but your issue with me not trusting JC's claim yesterday was that you felt it was too late and just looked like fake content correct? Like I was hedging so if he flipped scum I could say see I never trusted him?

Chang if you believe that Han didn't neighbour you and that somebody town chose you two to work together, can you tell me who you think chose you two specifically to work together and why you think they chose you?

Hb's EoD sheer obnoxiousness seems town in hindsight of the flip. He was super excited that he'd apparently outsmarted scumplum. I don't think he's that openly obnoxious as scum. I think he'd just sit back and chuckle to himself. Lopen and Corrik seemingly making more effort than plum did to save him also looks good for me in my opinion.
Corrik can you tell me why you're so convinced Death is scum?

Lopen posted...

Can you name a single or multiple theories attributable to Han?

with regard to the cult stuff specifically...
he suggested every other day or odd/even recruit / kill, he brought up 1 recruit every night being impossible and did the math on it, he suggested limited times for recruitment or only one cult recruiter, he suggested SK as a possibility for killing.

also attributed to him is it not making sense for (town) JC to be ever be recruited into scum cult (we did not discuss JC as the cult recruiter possibility at all).

that's not an exhaustive list but should illustrate that it wasn't totally one sided of me just spitballing stuff. it just so happens the stuff you're particularly asking about was all me

Lopen posted...

Who suggested this one?

yeah that's me as well but we both agreed on this. of course it was always in the back of my mind that he could've been sent by a scum teammate to pocket me but I didn't come away from the 24 hours with that feeling

I'm annoyed that Ulti dodged the Sultan question even though he was here and responding to Peaf at the same time. That was a question multiple people wanted from the previous day.

I also don't like IGCD's claim. He said his flavor and that he was powerless, but he did not say he was TOWN Vanilla, or any role at all. I asked him for the role but it looks like he left already. This reads to me like he grabbed a flavor off a safe list but forgot claim the role with it.

You think the soundtrack would be on a safelist? Isn't that a bit out there for a safe list?
Is there a chance that the flavour is real, like the BANG emphasis makes me think bomb if not dayvig.

Considering what Plum flipped, then I'm not making any assumptions of what Ben finds funny enough to include.

5tarscream posted...

Chang if you believe that Han didn't neighbour you and that somebody town chose you two to work together, can you tell me who you think chose you two specifically to work together and why you think they chose you?

we did speculate about this too, yeah. i'm not....totally sure i want to share those results at this moment though. if it is a town ability and our deduction skills were generally correct then i'd rather not publish a short list of like 4-5 possible players for scum / cult / whatever to have directly at it.

I can't rule out the possibility that Han is scum and was sent to pocket me, but I can definitely argue against a possible idea that scum put us together to make us butt heads and waste time. Even though Han and I were somewhat combative at the end of day 1, any scum team who wanted to give Town Han a headache would've stuck him in there with Lopen and no one would deny that.

So I can only imagine I was being pocketed or a good samaritan felt like we were both town and could work together to figure things out

in short, I currently believe the neighborizing ability is pro-town, I think it's probably going to get used again this game, and I want to make sure that happens. My current hope is that it's going to get used on two different players tonight. So I'd rather not disrupt that possibility personally, though Han is free to say what he wishes on the matter too, whenever he's back from his date.

I'm just sceptical that someone thought you were such a lock as town over several other players. Maybe that's just me though because I think you're scum still.

i mean it's also about managing personalities too though.

Sultan was basically a town lock but he might not be the most effective person to have a 1 on 1 conversation with for 24 hours.

Lopen was/is (pending cult things) mostly a town lock but you might annoy someone by subjecting them to 24 hours of lopen rabbit holes, etc.

i imagine whoever it is took more into consideration than just "who are my top 2 town reads and let me put them together".

changmas posted...

i mean it's also about managing personalities too though.

Sultan was basically a town lock but he might not be the most effective person to have a 1 on 1 conversation with for 24 hours.

Lopen was/is (pending cult things) mostly a town lock but you might annoy someone by subjecting them to 24 hours of lopen rabbit holes, etc.

i imagine whoever it is took more into consideration than just "who are my top 2 town reads and let me put them together".

That's fair

I disagree entirely that a town neighboring that forces two people they don't know the alignments of into a chat is terribly useful

In fact I think such a role if town should claim. I think that gives vastly more solving material

anyways it's about bedtime for me now, i imagine i'll wake up to another 200-300 posts as usual

changmas posted...

we did not discuss JC as the cult recruiter possibility at all

I find this hard to believe considering it was brought up end of day and even plum saw some sense to it

Lopen posted...

I disagree entirely that a town neighboring that forces two people they don't know the alignments of into a chat is terribly useful

In fact I think such a role if town should claim. I think that gives vastly more solving material

It's day 2 isn't everyone supposed to claim today anyway

5tarscream posted...

I'm just sceptical that someone thought you were such a lock as town over several other players. Maybe that's just me though because I think you're scum still.

You're right to be skeptical. Chang and Han are likely both scum. One is neighborizer. We saw a few games ago scum neighborizer used on town and it just got said neighborizer caught. So Han being smart said "well we aren't using this ability on town" and instead used the role existing as a gambit tool. The idea is if one flips it clears the other one.

The problem is Chang delved into the details of the conversation too much. I don't think Han is focusing a discussion on cult leader mechanics unless he's scum. While Chang may think that's a hoot Han tends to focus on finding scum and doesn't really care all that much about third party talk. The idea that they had an at length discussion about this and not about town/scum reads is hard to believe

That JC never came up as a possibility for cult leader when you have multiple people in topic (and in fact are saying I've been recruited) is telling. The most obvious explanation is this is a slip and JC is in fact scum and he's simply using scum chat details to make his lie realistic-- JC was never considered because JC is also scum who Ulti scanned.

The other possibility JC never came up is because scumteam blocked JC like I said and Chang is overcorrecting or scumteam had been trying to say "well what if it isn't JC"

I really do think cult leader JC makes more sense than scum JC but either way he's the lynch for today. Ulti just being cop is making more sense here.

I'm just saying you must lynch Han tomorrow. Too many red flags. And then when Han flips scum, do NOT clear Chang for it.

This...actually makes some sense.
I find it weird too that a 24 hour chat about cults, two town players never discuss JC at length. It's bs.

You think town has 2 scanners?
There is zero chance Sultan chooses to send his scan results to Ulti.

16 player game absolutely. Maybe two more.

We definitely don't just have Sultan. Sultan is a weak scanner

And yes I agree Sultan obviously didn't send a scan to Ulti I was floating that to see if anyone would bite to catch a lie.

What're your thoughts on Dumey and Peaf?

I think they're both town but if one is scum it's probably Peaf. Peaf has a lot of respect from Han and has been reasonably active. Hard to imagine he's been allowed to live.

Dumey has seemed like he's more honestly taking a crack at actually solving the game to me-- yes he's focused on weird things but I think I trust him as town pretty well at the moment.

So Im not sure what I can say to not get lynched today considering I have a scan on me, but Im straight up 100% town and something has caused Ultis scan to go awry, or hes lying.

I die day 4 anyways so youll get your resolution either way, but I would prefer not to be lynched because of a faulty scan.

I will be phone-only and very busy for a lot of the next couple days because whistler pride so my activity will be sporadic and whatever I can manage from my phone.

##vote:peaf

struggling to come up with reasons why Ulti would lie, short of him already being a cult member. But fact of the matter is hes wrong and you will all have a very unfun time figuring out what went wrong if you lynch me. Anyways going with Peaf still.

Does scum have a role that can make a town member scan as scum?

if that exists its not out of the realm of possibility they targeted me with it

i just dont want to believe we might have an insane cop

all these questions on more - next time on day 3 of Xenoblade mafia

Town
3. Edumey
8. Sbell
9. Hb
11. Corrik
12. IGCD
13. 5starscream

Conspiracy Theories are fun but probably town
6. Ulti

Scum
1. Han
14. Chang

Feels Weird They'd Be Alive With Scum Han
10. Red (note Han hasn't pushed him)
2. Peaf (passive play on the whole)
5. Death (Han approved kill if doc is feared)

Note Corrik could be in this list too but I think he was assumed doc target-- Death being town would also make Corrik less likely to be targeted.

Cult Leader or Scum
4. Chaeix

Han Chang Red Peaf JC as the bad actors is gaining more weight in my head as I put this list here.

Hey Lopen humour me, what would your read of the game be if I flipped town

I agree on the Dumey read, I think even when his reads are wrong like plum his logic and thought process makes sense based on the information we have and when pushed he's able to clearly explain where he's coming from.
Peaf however, I'm still not sold on, at all.
His main pressures seem to have been chang(scum) who he couldn't wait to back off of once I put my vote down, and Dumey who to me has looked super town. I feel the Dumey pressure reads to me like easy activity to get back off of because he's clearly town.

Peaf - Chang - IGCD are my scum suspicions.
Maybe Han and death, too.
Feel death looks less scummy than he did D1 but his interactions especially at EoD didn't sit well with my scum reads.
IGCD is my only new read here and it's because I have a theory. A baseless theory that makes no sense to anyone but myself. I've talked myself into believing he's Scum: Bomb and that's the BANGer of a soundtrack, that's also why he doesn't seem to really care if he antagonizes people because worse case scenario he takes a town hammer with him.

Scum bomb is a banned role here. Pretty unlikely

Chaeix posted...

Hey Lopen humour me, what would your read of the game be if I flipped town

Han and Chang still locks for scum

At that point probably scum framer. Don't think Ulti suicide into cult leader as scum makes sense if Han and Chang are doing what they're doing. So wouldn't lynch Ulti.

Well. BANGer goes that theory.

I will say I believe IGCD is town mostly because that feels like a weird safelist role and wouldn't be a scum role name, followed by his lackadaisical attitude about claiming and the fake shot. It's not a lot bit really don't see the case on him as scum. If he's scum well played

The copscan is probably the one Sultan made first.
And I have no problem with assuming there is a fulltime cop next to Sultans role
I do have a lot of problems seeing Ulti as one or seeing Sultan send his scan to Ulti, of all people.

Also after some thought, I have less problems with this neighborizer role.
Because it perfectly fits with the game's lore on the good guys side. Part of the plot is that there's a power that lets both factions share memories and also fuse bodies. Granted scum could have this power too, but it would be off for them to be able to target others with it.

I also think its more likelu the whole scumteam can recruit, and not just a lone wolf.

Anyone using safelist arguments in 2023 sounds ridiculous if you ask me.