Board 8 > Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Mafia: 2-1 Whatever Happened To Not Being Careless?

(+) Yeah! (+)

htaeD posted...

Sultan didnt even leave a hint that I could see

I dont think his role really leaves much of a desire to hint. That info is going to likely get out eventually. But if you hint and send to scum they can pick up on that and now you've outed yourself.

Meanwhile I am not sure why (and how) Ulti specified that he was a renamed nilla.

Ultimaterializer posted...

Dumey and Peaf are doing way too much role fishing.

If being determined to make the guy who faked a shot that resolves at end of day claim his role is "fishing", then I will accept this description.
I know I'm apparently the only one that views that claim as a way to shield himself from being lynched day 1 (as I think people would be hesitant to lynch IGCD if they believed the shot may be real and could wait for the results). But with talk about people making gambits to stay alive for cult recruitment, I can't get the fishy feeling out of my head on this one.
I was going to say it would be insane for both IGCD and JC to make that type of breadcrumb gambit if Ulti's scan had been true, but now that's back in contention. I will probably need to do a deeper dive on IGCD when I have time for it, but he's definitely still up there for me at the moment.

I think Lopen has some good arguments, but is a little too widespread. I think what other people have described as "rabbit hunting" makes sense to me now. I still say Han/Chang faking neighborizor after we learn about a cult game is way too WIFOM to consider. I think they were definitely neighborized, but that doesn't mean much for their alignments other than their reads on each other.

changmas posted...

The most likely conclusion we came to was that a different town member put us together to try and have us work together, because a scum with the same power would probably try and torture Han instead

I'm reminded of the recent game where Scum Ben neighborized himself with Chris. I do not know how much stock we can put into it being a Town role.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

The only reason I played your shot as straight as I did was because Plum decided to go full crazy person over it, as I've already mentioned I have repeatedly maintained that Corrik is my day vig target regardless of the situation and I decided to antagonize him for his decision to go full aggro over the shot that was obviously fake.

I believed, or maybe hoped the shot was real, even if i didn't think timing wise in the game it was prudent. Did you believe, and apologies if you've already said this and i'm glossing over or just missed it, that Plum as scum would react in such a way which is why you pushed it further? And i just read further and you said Plum went "full anti town", but did that make Plum "pro-scum" as well?

htaeD posted...

Meanwhile I am not sure why (and how) Ulti specified that he was a renamed nilla.

Because being called Town Boobs is hilarious? This is just a game at the end of the day and generally speaking the Chris/Han/etc belief of remembering that and having fun is the way to go.

10 years ago I would have raged at IGCD for shitting up day one, for example (not saying he actually did, just sharing what I would have said a decade ago). Now I dont care. He was having fun and we got some reads, which is a win-win for town. If either of you are scum Id be very surprised.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

but based on it being a Cult game, more people than usual would be Town day 1, and the approach should be finding the people who were hiding day 1 and other people who are changing wildly from day to day.

I did do some thinking on this when I went to bed last night, because I was genuinely having some issues scum hunting D1. When I was arguing with Lopen about not wanting to follow his scum leads, I didn't really have any of my own, I just disagreed with his because I had town reads at that time.
It may be pointless conjecture, but I was thinking the highest priority cult recruitments are people that were active and trying to lead lynches, which I think were primarily Lopen and Peaf from D1. Or a strong player who can coast to endgame if not focused, like Ulti, Red, or Corrik.
It may be biased because he came out swinging at me, but Peaf definitely reads as the most different from D1 to D2 so far. I think Peaf is a realistic cult recruitment target and has raised on my scum list a bit.

Peace___Frog posted...

You think they're scum and actually went through with faking the conversation?

I disagree entirely that han has respect for my play. We barely interacted yesterday, other than him asking me a question and not really following up iirc. He was in my list of suspects coming into today if he was alive, largely due to how he reacted to plum and igcd.

I'm talking about in general. You're a high priority Han kill when he's scum. He respects your game smarts and you're reasonably active

And no I'm not saying they "faked" a conversation I'm saying he's just relaying scum board discussion relevant to the cult leader, and he can't fake anything related to town and scum reads because.. it's scum board discussion.

EDumey posted...

Or a strong player who can coast to endgame if not focused, like Ulti, Red, or Corrik.

As town, none of those 3 players coast to end game.

htaeD posted...

Meanwhile I am not sure why (and how) Ulti specified that he was a renamed nilla.

The kill says ulti is scum but also Sultan has been playing well enough so maybe he was just a safe kill.

Ultimaterializer posted...

Because being called Town Boobs is hilarious? This is just a game at the end of the day and generally speaking the Chris/Han/etc belief of remembering that and having fun is the way to go.

10 years ago I would have raged at IGCD for shitting up day one, for example (not saying he actually did, just sharing what I would have said a decade ago). Now I dont care. He was having fun and we got some reads, which is a win-win for town. If either of you are scum Id be very surprised.

Oh I misunderstood that entirely then.

I assumed Townboobs was just you making the joke, not Ben.

EDumey posted...

I think they were definitely neighborized, but that doesn't mean much for their alignments other than their reads on each other.

The main reason I think it's a gambit is the following

1. Chang was unable to share any thoughts about who Han and he considered town or scum. It was literally all discussion about cult he shared with town. Note also Han was not present.
2. Chang says they reached the conclusion they were both town
3. Chang is very insistent that this so called town neighborizer is a very powerful role (it's not) and should not claim (it should)
4. Chang when pressed about literally every point I asked about insisted he made the point. To me this is suspicious because Han and probably Chang know I am "paranoid" of Han and as such would be more likely to trust points Chang made.
5. Han choosing to devote a neighborizer session entirely to discussion of cult doesn't feel in Han's wheelhouse. Han would be more interested in scum/town reads were he having a discussion, not a huge third party tangent. (unless he was scum)
6. A huge cult discussion and JC isn't even humored at all despite it being mentioned prominently near end of day? When snap reads of multiple town to start the day was "JC is cult leader, Lopen was recruited." Really?

There are SO MANY weird things about this supposed discussion, and when mapped with Han's behavior late yesterday it paints a very clear picture. I do think Han as scum thinks he has a limited lifespan due to the "why haven't scum shot him yet" and this is very much something I could see him being on board with.

Lopen posted...

I'm talking about in general. You're a high priority Han kill when he's scum. He respects your game smarts and you're reasonably active

What evidence do you have for this? The only time I've been killed overnight in the modern Mafia era was by our beloved host. He could sheep and pocket me, as he's been trying to do, and save his kill for other targets.

Reading through Ulti's claimed cop scan on JC. does he come back and retract this? i'm just getting into Page 3. JC had a nice reaction but this Cult thing is sorta throwing me for a loop and I dont really want to trust either of them.

really liked Peaf pointing out Ulti's contradiction in saying he never takes day 1 seriously and never will and then posts he thinks the entire game looks pro town. Thats a nice grab peaf.
However i disagree with your take on 5tar's reaction. Felt protown to me. 5tar actually the one person this game that hasn't given me a bad rub so far.

I've never played in a game with a Cult before. So we are talking Town vs. Scum vs. Cult or just Town vs. Cult(and thats the scum team)? Plum couldn't be recruited, but I guess Scum wouldn't want to get recruited since they already have their own team trying to win? But then the Scum team knows their teammate was recruited and they can just kill the recruit? That seems dumb. I dont think 3 factions makes sense with a Cult unless we are talking a SK here. Oh, maybe Cult has no kill and the kills nightly are all SK kills?

Peace___Frog posted...

What evidence do you have for this? The only time I've been killed overnight in the modern Mafia era was by our beloved host. He could sheep and pocket me, as he's been trying to do, and save his kill for other targets.

Scum chats. I'm fairly certain the recent game me and Han were both scum Han was mentioning you as a kill often.

Anyway like, who cares. I'm not going to lynch you for it nor push for your lynch. We lynch Han, we lynch Chang, we lynch Red before you on similar logic-- if you're still alive then, then we consider what you've done over the course of the game well before nightkill meta.

I guess what I'm trying to argue is that I'm not scum, but I think Han is and Chang is not. Big departure from yesterday there for me, but I'm ok with that for now.

Spoilers again Sbell, he does retract his whole claim.

I will say Chang has made the cult discussion a lot harder to read up on than I would like.

Lopen posted...

Scum chats. I'm fairly certain the recent game me and Han were both scum Han was mentioning you as a kill often.

Anyway like, who cares. I'm not going to lynch you for it nor push for your lynch. We lynch Han, we lynch Chang, we lynch Red before you on similar logic-- if you're still alive then, then we consider what you've done over the course of the game well before nightkill meta.

Oh i see. Yeah i don't usually read those. Ok. I see where you're coming from.

Han scum Chang town never happens unless there is actually a third person who neighborized them (which is completely weird as a role and honestly not very useful-- which is why Chang insisting its so good is weird) or Chang is town neighborizer. No way does Han ever neighborize town as scum he's too smart for that.

htaeD posted...

Spoilers again Sbell, he does retract his whole claim.

I will say Chang has made the cult discussion a lot harder to read up on than I would like.

This spoiler is ok.

So Ulti has no scan and is just Boobs? Great. I like Boobs, but i'm not feeling to hot about Ulti and right now i'm all fever.

Han could have enough ego for it.
In the absence of another player claiming the action, I can get behind a Han lynch.

Lopen posted...

Han scum Chang town never happens unless there is actually a third person who neighborized them (which is completely weird as a role and honestly not very useful-- which is why Chang insisting its so good is weird) or Chang is town neighborizer. No way does Han ever neighborize town as scum he's too smart for that.

Wouldnt Chang being the neighborizer somewhat explain the insistence that they dont claim?

So you don't think chang is scum but you thought we both were yesterday and that I was bussing chang when asked about it?
Now you're claiming he isn't scum but still believe I am, so what do you think my reason for voting chang over yourself was if I'm scum?

Hbthebattle posted...

Wouldnt Chang being the neighborizer somewhat explain the insistence that they dont claim?

Somewhat.

But Chang not suspecting a Han who supposedly devoted most of the discussion to cult leader hunting is very strange. The whole supposed conversation stinks.

Also I think I have pretty legitimate gripes here and Han not acknowledging me whatsoever is a tell not Han trying to avoid being distracted as town. He's faking not wanting to address me because he doesn't want me to catch him-- this is not "usual Lopen nonsense" you've got a lot of people saying I'm making sense right now.

Han ignoring me is something he would do as town, yes-- but if things I'm saying are actually resounding with people, he would address them.

Let's be very clear here, Lopen - we have empirical data over the past 4 games of Mafia that you don't just have no idea how to read me - you actively read me wrong.

I would respond to your posts, but we all know how they end - with me being pissed, you looking like a fool again, and us wasting a lot of topic space.

Even a couple of pages ago, you spent 4 or so posts in a row asking leading questions to Chang to try to keep your argument going - and guess what, the evidence you wanted didn't exist.

Now, for once, quit making stuff up and learn how to actually find Scum. You can't keep trying to shove square pegs into round holes. It has literally never worked.

I've literally been responding to Peaf, Lopen.

Stop.

Lying.

Actually I've correctly called you town the past two games we've both been town.

Your narrative is false.

Peace___Frog posted...

Oh i see. Yeah i don't usually read those. Ok. I see where you're coming from.

Peaf, did you play in the game Chris hosted where Scum was allowed to pick their powers each night?

Lopen posted...

Actually I've correctly called you town the past two games we've both been town.

Your narrative is false.

No, you did not.

In one of them, you did

So how much discussion did you two have about town vs scum compared to nonsense cult talk?

No. 2/2. I started calling you scum in one but came around on you as town before you died.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Peaf, did you play in the game Chris hosted where Scum was allowed to pick their powers each night?

Nope. I don't think i followed that one very much.

Why?

You called me Scum until I died.

You called me Scum until I died.

You died before I posted once.

You were Scum.

That's the four games, that's what happened. The only reason you started to budge in the second game is that I fucking pleaded my heart out to get you to budge, and it was harder than anything I've ever done in a Mafia game.

We've been through this same song and dance before. I'm sick of it. It's boring. This is the reason why Chris tells me I should play elsewhere.

So I'll give you this: one post, one response. Post real things, not stuff you're making up (like, I am very vocal about not respecting Red's play; how in the hell do you make up that he's a likely kill if I'm Scum?)

One post, I'll give you one response. Then I'm not wasting my time getting het up in yet another game of you being stubbornly wrong.

Hbthebattle posted...

Wouldnt Chang being the neighborizer somewhat explain the insistence that they dont claim?

Chang neighborizing one of the 4 people who voted for him yesterday would be an interesting move

Games Im not in dont matter so who cares if Lopen cant read Han. Seriously. Changs reaction to my fake scan was laughable.

5tarscream posted...

So you don't think chang is scum but you thought we both were yesterday and that I was bussing chang when asked about it?
Now you're claiming he isn't scum but still believe I am, so what do you think my reason for voting chang over yourself was if I'm scum?

Peaf this was to you incase you missed it. Or did you just ignore it. Rude.

5tarscream posted...

So you don't think chang is scum but you thought we both were yesterday and that I was bussing chang when asked about it?
Now you're claiming he isn't scum but still believe I am, so what do you think my reason for voting chang over yourself was if I'm scum?

No clue :)

You tell me why you voted for my top scumspect instead of me, when both he and I were on your list.

Give me 13 seconds, bro

He felt scummier than you. Simple.

Peace___Frog posted...

Nope. I don't think i followed that one very much.

Why?

That's the recent game where I was Scum with Lopen.

I'm not sure why he's saying we talked about killing you in that game if you weren't in it.

Leafeon13N posted...

So how much discussion did you two have about town vs scum compared to nonsense cult talk?

Infinitely more, actually.

My words were along the lines of "I have not much to offer aside from what I said in topic". I told Chang I've not really engaged with the game. He told me the same back.

Utilizing logic, I came to the conclusion that JC had to be Town. I grew to think Chang was Town. And Cult confirmation made sense that there are less Town.

Other than that, I don't remember details. It was very stream of consciousness - Chang said he copied the logs. I did not copy them. Ask him if you want exact details.

Ulti, you here bro?

Can you address the Sultan issue please.

changmas posted...

I'm mostly in agreement with Ulti here, yeah. Lopen is a logical choice for cult recruitment as he built up a ton of town equity day 1.

that being said, I do find it a bit hard to believe that there's two scanning roles who can discover the cult almost immediately. that seems...a bit too easy

How is this a town reaction? To my knowledge, cultists scan guilty. Of course multiple people can figure it out, especially with open PM player flips.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

My words were along the lines of "I have not much to offer aside from what I said in topic". I told Chang I've not really engaged with the game. He told me the same back.

Other than that, I don't remember details. It was very stream of consciousness - Chang said he copied the logs. I did not copy them. Ask him if you want exact details.

I can see why chang thinks this is a super important role just look at how huge an impact it's had on Han.

Obellisk posted...

Ulti, you here bro?

Can you address the Sultan issue please.

You mean the question I answered in post 171?

Ultimaterializer posted...

How is this a town reaction? To my knowledge, cultists scan guilty. Of course multiple people can figure it out, especially with open PM player flips.

He's not saying Cultists don't scan Guilty, he's saying there are less Cultists than Scum so having more scanners is less likely.

We have no evidence a mafia team even exists yet.

Ultimaterializer posted...

We have no evidence a mafia team even exists yet.

No, sorry.

There are less Cultists than there would be Scum. That is what I meant.

Ultimaterializer posted...

You mean the question I answered in post 171?

Ahh, i honestly haven't gotten to page 4.

You said:
"I didnt dodge the Sultan question. I changed my mind based on how he responded to me. Its nothing more than that."

So you aren't acknowledging that you read the post wrong and attacked him unfoundedly? You stand by the attack you just liked his answer?

Ultimaterializer posted...

We have no evidence a mafia team even exists yet.

We either have a Scum team and a Cult or we have a Cult that is the scum team.

What are you getting at?

PunishedBen posted...
I will refer to Chaiex as JC going forward lol

[1]IGCD - Dumey
[1]Han - Lopen
[1]JC - (Ulti), IGCD
[1]Peaf - JC
[1]Han - Corrik
[1]Chang - Ulti
[0]Dumey - (Peaf)

You have two Han's in this update Ben.