Board 8 > Paper Mario Mafia Topic 11 - Hangin With Mr Kooper

(+) Yeah! (+)

Peaf, Hb, if you guys aren't convinced that my night action condemns Plum, then I request that you do an ISO on Ulti and Plum both and try to analyze their posts both from a scum and a town mindset.

What are you even talking about

Ulti is going to conveniently leave out all the later posts where Han wanted to kill Ulti over me isn't he

I've sat through one stream of consciousness catchup post with self-aggrandizing bullshit already.

I've got date night tonight for the first time in 2023 so I beg hb to give us anything in that time.

Peace___Frog posted...

I've got date night tonight for the first time in 2023 so I beg hb to give us anything in that time.

I mean, it's probably just Plum. I'm just trying to figure out the safest route for us here.

Hbthebattle posted...

I mean, it's probably just Plum. I'm just trying to figure out the safest route for us here.

If we lynch ulti

• If Kirby is scum it will be Kirby in a final 3 with me and Peaf. At that point Kirby has to be scum because he lied about being poisoned
• If Kirby is town and Ulti is town and I am scum he hammers me and I die. Only way you lose is if Peaf is town

Lynching Ulti is objectively the right play here even if you don't believe me. This game is locked as long as you don't freak out at Kirby's action and punt the game away

masterplum posted...

If Kirby is town and Ulti is town and I am scum he hammers me and I die. Only way you lose is if Peaf is town

Wat

Peace___Frog posted...

Wat

I mistyped. Meant to say peaf is scum

masterplum posted...

* If Kirby is town and Ulti is town and I am scum he hammers me and I die. Only way you lose is if Peaf is town

Why can't the same be true of lynching you and Kirby hammering/jumping Ulti?

Hbthebattle posted...

Why can't the same be true of lynching you and Kirby hammering/jumping Ulti?

Because we don't know what Ulti is immune against

In the scenario where Ulti is scum, if Kirby picks wrong ulti wins

Hbthebattle posted...

Why can't the same be true of lynching you and Kirby hammering/jumping Ulti?

Because then there's a 50% chance that ulti is resistant to whatever action Kirby picks.

I still think it's a huge risk to assume that scum has no way to mess with me attacking Plum.

In the daytime, there is absolutely no way scum can control the lynch outside of debate and persuasion.

It's likely that I'm being overly paranoid, but I am a little surprised we haven't yet seen any kind of redirection roles this game. Not that they have to be a necessity each game, but I have to emphasize that we don't know what powers scum has left in their arsenal.

I will say that in terms of claims, Ulti looks better than Plum, purely by circumstance.

Ulti claimed immediately after Ben did, before Sultan/my role was public knowledge.

Plum only claimed after Hero was revealed and while Ben was still alive, fake claiming that seeker role. Thus, Plum had more incentive to mask his role as a Star Spirit to make Ben seem more convincing and also to protect against me killing him with a correct attack (since Plum is resistant to Jump, even though Star Spirit would imply a Jump weakness).

If anyone had less room for planning a good fake claim, it was most certainly Ulti given how rapidly changing things were near the end of Day 2. Plum only did so after other players had already claimed.

We know the last role is a burner

in the scenario where I am scum that is all to it. You hopped on me and I burned you.

There is nothing that can go wrong. A burner isnt going to have? An extra paralyze?

None of this is relevant because it wont come to that but there is nothing to fear here

That doesn't put me at ease coming from you, Plum. I'm extremely wary that you instantly jumped to No Lynch at the start of the day instead of going for Ulti immediately.

In fact, you only voted for Ulti after I brought up that initial proposal where Ulti gets voted instead of you.

You have an incentive for trying to live an extra night.

Kirby321 posted...

That doesn't put me at ease coming from you, Plum. I'm extremely wary that you instantly jumped to No Lynch at the start of the day instead of going for Ulti immediately.

In fact, you only voted for Ulti after I brought up that initial proposal where Ulti gets voted instead of you.

You have an incentive for trying to live an extra night.

At the beginning of the day Hb and Peaf were both on the table. No lynching there proves you and forces a night kill to prevent you from taking another free shot to go down to 3

Once HB and Peaf were basically completely off the table it wasnt the right move any more

You have to understand I play mafia extremely tactically regardless of alignment. While some people only tactically play as scum (Lets be honest many dont do that) I also carefully try to figure out where scums outs are.

For better or for worse you and Ulti voting me closed some doors of possibility. I think Peaf and Hb have gone from near confirmed to virtually confirmed at this point, so we swing the pieces back around to make sure neither you nor Ulti have any outs,

Which is the reason I initially went to you, because I think you are the scarier potential piece right here. I think its more likely that if scum has a trick you would be playing it as you were going to lose if the status quo held.

Ulti was kind of dead in the water.

But it then became apparent that line wasnt palatable for people who still suspect me so no reason to hold to it.

I don't mean to arrogant, but the fact that you were even remotely considering me as scum after everything that happened this game does not bode well with me. Strikes me more as a desperation tactic than an actual analytical one.

Like... you literally voted for me before you voted for Ulti. Despite the fact that you literally said "yeah this game is locked" and then voted Ulti yesterday.

You were so confident that Ulti was scum, and yet you tried to shift to lynching me? What was that all about?

Kirby321 posted...

I don't mean to arrogant, but the fact that you were even remotely considering me as scum after everything that happened this game does not bode well with me. Strikes me more as a desperation tactic than an actual analytical one.

Like... you literally voted for me before you voted for Ulti. Despite the fact that you literally said "yeah this game is locked" and then voted Ulti yesterday.

You were so confident that Ulti was scum, and yet you tried to shift to lynching me? What was that all about?

I kind of ninjad you here, but its all about risk management

If you were truly evaluating the risks... you'd understand that what Ulti said about Peaf and Hb being omega confirmed town isn't necessarily true.

Not that I believe either of them could be scum at this point, but aren't we forgetting something here? Something you so eagerly latched on to when I made my off-hand remark about lynching Ulti instead of you...

Kirby321 posted...

If you were truly evaluating the risks... you'd understand that what Ulti said about Peaf and Hb being omega confirmed town isn't necessarily true.

Not that I believe either of them could be scum at this point, but aren't we forgetting something here? Something you so eagerly latched on to when I made my off-hand remark about lynching Ulti instead of you...

I have been spinning to figure this out so I dont know what you are referring to

masterplum posted...

Because we don't know what Ulti is immune against

Huh, thats weird. Isnt your whole argument against Kirby is that its impossible for scum to have another bulletproof?
Yet youre willing to acknowledge it here.

Hbthebattle posted...

Huh, thats weird. Isnt your whole argument against Kirby is that its impossible for scum to have another bulletproof?
Yet youre willing to acknowledge it here.

Mmm true.

If kirby can kill it shouldnt matter then as jump will kill Ulti. I guess the million dollar question is if Luigis jumps actually work given that Luigi isnt even in paper Mario

I guess at the end of the day I know it shouldnt matter, but I dont like like adding in doubt.

I guess its kind of like what Kirby said eh? What if scum does have something and it does go wrong?

Because objectively it shouldnt matter, but I know it cant go wrong if we lynch Ulti first

Though if Kirby is town and cant kill I guess you are back in a pickle where you cant just not worry about it and kill Ulti.

Well shoot