Board 8 > Star Trek Mafia - Topic DS9: Kadir beneath Mo Moteh

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hello fellow townies and other people.

I completely missed that the day was starting last night instead of tonight. That is my fault for not checking back, and I didn't even realize until Lea poked me on neighbor chat for not posting anything yet. >_>

I have caught up, but don't remember if any questions towards me specifically needed answering. A couple people asked me to clarify my role, but I think I did a pretty bang-up job in my claim post of going through all the intricacies there. I can elaborate that I did choose Lea as my neighbor in pretty much the last ten minutes of the day. After she voted for Chris, but before Han or Crescent made their move. It was a bit of a stressful choice, and if Han had moved his vote earlier, I might have chosen him for the memes instead. But Lea seemed most likely to be town at that point to me and I was specifically wary of Han not moving his vote yet.

I'll make another post shortly with where I was coming into today(tonight) and what's changed with the conversation about Ulti's JC save, but give me a moment. Busy at work.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Is this why you're after Ben the most?

UltimaterializerX posted...

A 5head possibility:

Mafia has no redirector, Justin is simply their scanner, claimed his real target (me) night 2, lied about targeting Andy entirely, and mafia just shot me directly last night.

Thats a lot of ifs falling in place tho. Occulams Razor says Justin is town.

But mafia usually gets a scanner of some kind.

Not to be catty, but this is the exact kind of thinking you got on my case for.

Just, you know, if you're looking for things not to do in the future.

Chaeix posted...

, if we're assuming there's a GF by virtue of cop existing

1. Why would we assume this?
2. As Lea said, she's speaking of a GF replacement - if you're Town, then it's a GF replacement that defends from both Crescent AND your role.

EDumey posted...

I can elaborate that I did choose Lea as my neighbor in pretty much the last ten minutes of the day. After she voted for Chris, but before Han or Crescent made their move. It was a bit of a stressful choice, and if Han had moved his vote earlier, I might have chosen him for the memes instead. But Lea seemed most likely to be town at that point to me and I was specifically wary of Han not moving his vote yet.

This sounds a bit like knowing Chris' alignment.

Lea's next post is in pretty good favor of Dumey being town though.

My thoughts after Isquen flipped town was, "Well shit, my PoE isn't as easy as it looked after all." So remaining PoE in relative order of wanting them lynched was BCT/Wallz/JC/Han/Sultan. I appreciate what Ben had posted so far, but not sure I've changed my mind on that slot quite yet. Wallz is purely PoE, but the people behind him have things going for them to make them town. JC I think is alignment opposed to BCT/Ben because of the "Why would scum JC redirect away from a scan on BCT" logic, so I think if I become convinced of JC being scum, then I would move BCT/Ben out of PoE. Han is surviving on good cred, but definitely is not confirmed town. Sultan is surviving based off of his Chris interaction, and a good D3 from my perspective.

Though just an hour or so ago when Lea pinged me on the ole' Holocord, I did start talking myself into a world where Sultan/Chris interaction is not 100% town confirming. I was pretty sure that Sultan was Chris's escape plan from antagonizing Ulti and Han, which could still be true. But knowing that it was a rather weak argument on Sultan, maybe Chris was confident that Town wouldn't go for it and lynch Death instead? So instead of trying to lead a mislynch on Sultan, he was planting early seeds of "I told you so" when a scum Sultan eventually gets himself lynched later on? This early antagonism also tracks with him criticizing Sultan for not being as ankle bitey as he remembered.
If we didn't have back to back Sheep/Isquen town flips, then I may not have considered it. But obviously going after just the low hanging fruit hasn't been working.

Moving on to the Ulti save, I think this dramatically changes my thoughts. Here's what makes sense to me. Either scum Ctes shoots Death to set up a fake claim because scum has no good power reads (dumb play IMO but possible), or Ulti saves Crescent N1 and Ctes tells the truth. N2 Scum doesn't believe Ulti is BP, and uses their unblockable kill on Crescent who they believe to be a scanner. N3 scum either believes Ulti isn't BP and tries to take out the doctor, or they shoot JC who is saved.

The obvious implication here is that JC is town and scum was afraid that he would track one of the suspicious vanillas like Wallz or BCT (again) who has to send in an action and he would find them.

JC, why did you not scan BCT/Ben slot again when you knew the replacement was coming and that seeing them move could be damning evidence? ESPECIALLY when it seems like a scum bus/redirector specifically stopped you from doing that before? Crazy to me that you didn't scan that slot a second time.

I think it is definitely possible that scum shot Ulti instead of JC, and I wish Ulti had saved someone else to make it less confusing. I understand wanting to save the only real claimed town power left, but I feel like JC wouldn't have been a priority target to kill because he was still a viable lynch candidate, unless they were very afraid of the scan going to one of their moving scum members?

I also agree with Ctes being considered again, but I want to read through the first part of this day again before typing up thoughts on that.

ctesjbuvf posted...

This sounds a bit like knowing Chris' alignment.

Lea's next post is in pretty good favor of Dumey being town though.

To be clear, this was more me thinking that no scum seeming to come out of the woodwork to save Death meant that Death was likely Town. So Lea seeing that and moving off of the lynch looked good, Han staying on to the last moment (to be completely fair, remember that I was too slow to vote and never moved off Death) looked worse to me. It just so happens that I agreed with Lea moving to Chris because of his weak Sultan push, which I did explicitly say in topic when it happened.

My current read of the game is that scum is
One of BCT or JC.
Wallz
One of Han, Sultan, or Ctes.

I suppose it's possible for it to be something like Sultan AND Ctes instead of Wallz, but I really don't read the game that way.

EDumey posted...

JC, why did you not scan BCT/Ben slot again when you knew the replacement was coming and that seeing them move could be damning evidence? ESPECIALLY when it seems like a scum bus/redirector specifically stopped you from doing that before? Crazy to me that you didn't scan that slot a second time.

2 things. I came around on BCT because of his reaction (though Lea has pointed out some valid things about it today) and I figured that if it was a bus driver, regardless of BCT's alignment they would swap him again to maintain the 'why are they protecting bct?!' discussion we couldn't move forward with yesterday. I chose to scan someone in my PoE instead.

That being said, I've been approaching discussion today from the lens of a limited redirector but forgot to raise that a full-fledged bus driver could still exist in this setup if I just avoided the bus targets.

But again that just raises why they wouldn't use the bus to ensure I die?

Like killing me in a way Ulti can't protect is realistically a higher priority kill than Ulti himself if they can't reliably prevent my scan?

Chaeix posted...

That being said, I've been approaching discussion today from the lens of a limited redirector but forgot to raise that a full-fledged bus driver could still exist in this setup if I just avoided the bus targets.

I know you can't really say anything other than, "That's the way it happened," but I must say that this part bothers me. Because I agree that it looks like you've been saying "redirector" this whole time and like you're viewing the game with that as a certainty. So I'm not sure if I 100% buy that you factored in Bus Driver as well with your night action.

Things that make you go "hmmmm" and such.

Chaeix posted...

But again that just raises why they wouldn't use the bus to ensure I die?

Like killing me in a way Ulti can't protect is realistically a higher priority kill than Ulti himself if they can't reliably prevent my scan?

This is the whole "bus driver and unblockable kill don't seem like they fit together" argument that Han spent the last day making, isn't it? Which seeing as how Ulti's target is dead independently of your claimed redirected action, it seems like you're the odd one out.

EDumey posted...

I know you can't really say anything other than, "That's the way it happened," but I must say that this part bothers me. Because I agree that it looks like you've been saying "redirector" this whole time and like you're viewing the game with that as a certainty. So I'm not sure if I 100% buy that you factored in Bus Driver as well with your night action.

Things that make you go "hmmmm" and such.

That's a fair comment - would have obviously been less hmmmm if I had led with it, but I mean, if I was trying to deceive you I would have just come in and been like "bct wasn't poe anymore" instead of voluntarily adding extra detail.

EDumey posted...

This is the whole "bus driver and unblockable kill don't seem like they fit together" argument that Han spent the last day making, isn't it? Which seeing as how Ulti's target is dead independently of your claimed redirected action, it seems like you're the odd one out.

I was actually on a completely different train of thought and not considering that at all. I was thinking strictly about N3.

If they have a bus driver, then they can't prevent my scan with 100% certainty. I could always scan someone other than their targets. So it wouldn't make sense for them to target Ulti in that case.

If they had a bus driver, the only logical thing to do so that scum can prevent a scan AND a save, is to bus drive me with the shot target and kill me.

So a bus driver doesn't fit into N3 actions.

JC, who did you scan again?

Alright, I've been back and fourth a lot and I don't think it's worth keeping to myself anymore, because it's distracting you all more than I think it could be something for scum to fear another night.

I did the darn busdrive with the intend of saving Ulti. I thought Ulti's play made complete sense with how I know him if he was doctor and not BP and I expected scum to have the same idea.

No redirection happened the other nights because I only had one of those.

And why BCT? He was one of my biggest suspects in the PoE and wouldn't be a huge loss if dead as vanilla when instead of doctor.

##Vote: Ctes

pfft lol Dumey

I considered that reaction a very possible option but town trying to get anywhere without sinformation was not helping anything either.

Now think for a darn moment before jumping to conclusions.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

JC, who did you scan again?

Wallz.

I am doing a long hard think about this because I agree with a lot of ctes' criticisms of wallz. He's spent the last 2 days undermining power claims instead of assessing the vanilla situation, which quite frankly I think is more pressing. He also hasn't done a good job of explaining why scum would kill a claimed vanilla and then claim the kill as a vig without knowing whether town had extra killing powers. I think ctes is ballsy but not that ballsy.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I considered that reaction a very possible option but town trying to get anywhere without sinformation was not helping anything either.

Yeah, which was obvious yesterday.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Alright, I've been back and fourth a lot and I don't think it's worth keeping to myself anymore, because it's distracting you all more than I think it could be something for scum to fear another night.

I did the darn busdrive with the intend of saving Ulti. I thought Ulti's play made complete sense with how I know him if he was doctor and not BP and I expected scum to have the same idea.

No redirection happened the other nights because I only had one of those.

And why BCT? He was one of my biggest suspects in the PoE and wouldn't be a huge loss if dead as vanilla when instead of doctor.

oh

ctes give us your full role please

I may need to go reread some things real quick, but we've talked about bus driver and redirector a LOT this game and you never claimed it? I am not buying this one second. Goddamn you Ctes and making me need to do a full ISO 9 topics in.

EDumey posted...

I may need to go reread some things real quick, but we've talked about bus driver and redirector a LOT this game and you never claimed it? I am not buying this one second. Goddamn you Ctes and making me need to do a full ISO 9 topics in.

the only thing i will give him is that he was insisting that the bus driver came from a town perspective up until sultan had claimed and nobody else could possibly be the bus driver

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Yeah, which was obvious yesterday.

I was hoping to force scum into playing around a bus driver by not stating it (which may have happened to some extend). But Isquen was also a case that had nothing to do with it.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I was hoping to force scum into playing around a bus driver by not stating it (which may have happened to some extend). But Isquen was also a case that had nothing to do with it.

how do you force scum to play around bus driver when the whole game had claimed yesterday and we were still talking about scum redirector theories?

I have been pretty dismissive of all of your ideas about where it comes from for a reason.

EDumey posted...

how do you force scum to play around bus driver when the whole game had claimed yesterday and we were still talking about scum redirector theories?

Scum knows for sure it's not them that has it. So they have known all along someone hadn't given their full story.

I am Jack of all trades

A vig shot, a bus drive and a third action I would prefer to not give information about to be honest.

I can say as much that it's not a cop scan in case anyone wondered if I resolve Crescent being miller.

so now I have to ask what Scum would need to have to be competitive against all of the claimed power right now.

Not just a BP Doctor
And a Cop
And a Weak Tracker
but also a Jack with Vig and bus drive

Feel comfortable firmly sticking Dumey in the Town pile after that claim, at least.

Having confirmation that JC was driven and that he wasn't lying about that part pretty much skyrockets him to near confirmed town, I'm pretty sure. The "why would scum scan the target they shot" logic works now if we have a claimed driver.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I am Jack of all trades

A vig shot, a bus drive and a third action I would prefer to not give information about to be honest.

I can say as much that it's not a cop scan in case anyone wondered if I resolve Crescent being miller.

Let me guess, it's a "silence Scumboard for the whole night" button.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Why does scum ctes claim that here when he would know thats a suicide pact is the real issue Im having. Does anyone else think ctes and Wall are doing a theater?

Why doesn't a town Ctes claim this shit earlier so anti town. Like um we've been playing a goose chase looking for this busdriver...

I've read how this amount of town protection would be too much a bunch of times and considering I could only bus drive once, I didn't think it mattered much. I also felt good about Ulti just being doctor.

Idk what to think about ctes tbh I see why he does the redirect now it makes sense since Ulti is BP so I'm conflicted and more confused than I was before

Acknowledging BCT was the only claimed vanilla at that point, did it ever cross your mind that he was the best person for me to scan given the fact people were telling me I should have scanned a vanilla? So by bussing him you predictably took my scan away?

I'm somewhat perturbed by the apparent lack of RBing or scum disruption in any case.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Why does scum ctes claim that here when he would know thats a suicide pact is the real issue Im having. Does anyone else think ctes and Wall are doing a theater?

I haven't incorporated Wall into these thoughts.

My thoughts slightly rewind back to Ctes/JC.

I mean, for that to be true, it means Ctes is just a normal Scum - Death was shot N1, and JC wasn't redirected. JC scanned Crescent N1, hence knowing she moved... and then faked a redirect knowing that Ulti moving is less info to Town than BCT being scanned.

The reason that they wouldn't fake a redirect N3 is because Ctes was planning on claiming the drive.

Chaeix posted...

I'm somewhat perturbed by the apparent lack of RBing or scum disruption in any case.

Especially if Town has 2 Scanners, a Doctor, and a Jack.

honestly my biggest apprehension here is that if ctes is scum he was doing well

this seems like a very random suicide mission

The third action is a roleblock.

Wanting scum to fear redirection for a night shouldn't be that crazy for anyone of you to think