Board 8 > Do you push the red or blue button?

(+) Yeah! (+)

If >=50% of the population pushes the red button, everyone who pushed the blue button dies
If >50% of the population pushes the blue button, no one dies

bonus question: have you seen this question before?

We all just need to push red and no one dies? I push red and anyone who pushes blue is a moron

Whoops I pushed the wrong button because the options weren't in the order of the specifications.

Also I have seen this before

Mobilezoid posted...

We all just need to push red and no one dies? I push red and anyone who pushes blue is a moron

This, it's a ridiculously easy nash equilibrium.

But also humans are fallible and risk-averse so out of 8 billion, some % will press blue. You have a 100% chance of killing millions, maybe 100s of millions with this strategy.

This is pretty much an easier version of the prisoner's dilemma - what if you betray and go free no matter what? There's literally no reason not to push red. I guess you can feel bad about anyone who does push blue but the concept here is pretty simple and I feel like almost anyone should understand that pushing blue is putting your life on the line completely needlessly.

I love that the silent majority is saying blue. Like blue started off slightly ahead and we're pulling even more ahead. We're basically voting between killing billions and killing 0. Killing 0 is an easy value prop. I believe strongly that most people would take the "kill no one" option, and it looks like I'm correct.

It's really interesting how different b8 is from Twitter; on Twitter it's like 75/25 but on b8 it's 55/45.

Snake5555555555 posted...

Whoops I pushed the wrong button because the options weren't in the order of the specifications.

Also I have seen this before

My bad, I fixed the post.

Where did you see this, out of curiosity? I saw it on Twitter today and then a bunch of Twitter nerds started making memes of it.

I think one of those "would you rather" type of sites.

I feel like whichever side wins wins in a landslide and I'd rather not risk being in the 10% that gets killed if red wins and just play red. I dunno just how I feel. I feel like blue probably wins in the general population so I wouldn't be concerned (think we have more people who understand game theory than the general population and it's still neck and neck) even though everyone should just play red.

My initial reaction was "duh, everyone needs to vote blue and stop being selfish" because red KILLS people and blue does not. My knee-jerk response was, like, "why would anyone push red?" But I also wasn't doing the deeper analysis. So yes, it is mathematically superior to vote red and anticipate everyone else will.

But they won't. Therefore, in order to not kill some large percentage of the population, I feel obligated to stand with the blue people.

If I push red, I'm safe no matter what? Okay, red it is. Anyone who pushes blue is risking death, so it's their fault for not thinking this through. Simply put, if nobody pushes blue, nobody dies either.

Doesn't seem fair that you can check the results of the poll before voting

Lopen posted...

think we have more people who understand game theory than the general population and it's still neck and neck

There's also no actual life on the line. Virtue signaling is strong but self preservation always wins.

Less than 50% show up to the polls so we all die

GTM posted...

Less than 50% show up to the polls so we all die

If not pressing either button is an option it would actually be the best one. You don't increase the percentage of people that push the red button, and you don't risk your life by pressing the blue button. Best of both worlds.

Could I live with myself if I pressed the red button and billions of people died? Would I want to live in a world where literally everyone is selfish enough to chose the red button and everyone who with the morals and courage to do otherwise are dead, and everyone else has the guilt weighing on their mind for the rest of their life? On top of that, it's a world where at least half the world have suddenly died Thanos-style and everyone else is dealing with the consequences all at once.

Why the fuck would I want to live in that world?

Why would anyone push the blue button? Am I missing something? If nobody pushes the blue button, nobody dies. Anyone stupid enough to pick Blue is darwinism in action.

Ashethan posted...

If nobody pushes the blue button, nobody dies.

Fun Fact: This is also true if nobody pushes the red button.

Lopen posted...

I feel like whichever side wins wins in a landslide and I'd rather not risk being in the 10% that gets killed if red wins and just play red. I dunno just how I feel. I feel like blue probably wins in the general population so I wouldn't be concerned (think we have more people who understand game theory than the general population and it's still neck and neck) even though everyone should just play red.

"The only winning move is not to play."

Yeah, but you only need 50% of blue to achieve zero deaths, while you need 100% of red, which obviously isn't happening. Unless you convince everyone to act rationally beforehand.

This is being presented as a hyper-rational problem but there are two optimal solutions in conflict with one another, and in a scenario that takes into account psychology and such, the "wrong" one has better outcomes than everything except the extreme edge case of the "right" one (and that one is only equally good).

Not playing is not an option, you must push a button. All 8,000,000,000 people are required to push the button.

Ashethan posted...

Why would anyone push the blue button? Am I missing something? If nobody pushes the blue button, nobody dies. Anyone stupid enough to pick Blue is darwinism in action.

100.00000% of the population has to push red for no one to die

50.00001% of the population has to push blue for no one to die

Blue is a much easier path to no one dying, and it looks like most people will see it

I'm not willing to bet my life on 50% of humanity being in any way selfless or good.

Still no reason for me, personally, to press blue.

Sure I hope blue does win, she maybe it does.

But if it doesn't I'm not going to be on that side.

Mobilezoid posted...

I'm not willing to bet my life on 50% of humanity being in any way selfless or good.

It was 37-36 blue before your post and now it's 38-37 red

you would have saved almost 50% of us if you voted differently (if you voted when it was neck-and-neck); how do you feel?

NeatoAnAccount posted...

how do you feel?

alive

But if this was real, would you bet your life that most people will see it?

I can easily see people psyching themselves out and not willing yo take that risk. Self preservation will kick in and they'll choose the option where they 100% live

Cavedweller2000 posted...

But if this was real, would you bet your life that most people will see it?

I can easily see people psyching themselves out and not willing yo take that risk. Self preservation will kick in and they'll choose the option where they 100% live

And if they 'hold the line' and pick blue then it's literally no different to red voters

Silly game

Everyone dies

We live in a society

Which button is on the left?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Still no reason for me, personally, to press blue.

Not wanting to kill people??

Forceful_Dragon posted...

And if they 'hold the line' and pick blue then it's literally no different to red voters

With blue you rely on others to survive, with red you rely in yourself

EDIT: I think we got crossed wires. I'm a red voter and my first post was in response to post #22. But by the time I posted, so did 5 others lol

I didn't even read the prompt, I just pushed the red button because it was a red button.

I'd press Red because it would win in a landslide in a worldwide vote. Think where most people live, like 40% are in china and india. Do you really think it would even be close to 50/50 in those countries because i don't. Honestly i don't think a single major country hits over 50% blue and if there was time before you have to choose the general talk around this would be just hit red to limit the deaths rather than the pipe dream of blue winning.

Kenri posted...

Not wanting to kill people??

It would be insane to blame yourself for the deaths instead of whoever set up this 8 billion person torture device

foolm0r0n posted...

It would be insane to blame yourself for the deaths instead of whoever set up this 8 billion person torture device

Or the 4 billion+ other people who pressed red. Your vote is basically meaningless here and if it comes down to human nature needing people to say "well red is smarter but I should press blue so blue wins" blue is dead in the water.

You basically are hoping most people don't understand the game theory and are not fearful of death and want to save lives. If you think it needs people who think it's smarter to press red to press blue to win and press blue I think you're just throwing your life away if you're correct because I think most people who actually think about and understand the question press red.

People that press blue are killing themselves if they die.

Clearly not everyone will push red, so I dont want any deaths on my conscience

Is my thought

welp

I still stand by my decision

Plus this game loses points because it cannot even come close to how it would feel in actuality.

i voted blue

i am a hero

tcaz2 posted...

People that press blue are killing themselves if they die.

There will also be people who vote blue hoping to die.

Lopen posted...

Or the 4 billion+ other people who pressed red

No if you're willing to blame the other reds then you absolutely need to blame yourself, since you're a red as well. But there's no reason to blame any red for this situation.

The blame spread out among billions of reds means that every red will likely be responsible for 1/5 or 1/10 of a death. You probably indirectly cause that much death regularly through your own neglect or inaction, to say nothing of directly harmful things you will inevitably do during your lifetime.

My point isn't so much that you blame them and absolve yourself, just that so much of the world was "at fault" that you can't possibly feel bad about it. At that point you should feel upset about the state of the world if anything. But if you don't want to live in that world you can just press the blue button.

Lopen posted...

The blame spread out among billions of reds means that every red will likely be responsible for 1/5 or 1/10 of a death. You probably indirectly cause that much death regularly through your own neglect or inaction, to say nothing of directly harmful things you will inevitably do during your lifetime.

regularly??? that seems so high

How many homeless people do you see every year that you do nothing to help?

How many people with depression do you attack in online arguments and send them further along a spiral?

It's not your fault people are suffering but unless you're a saintly philanthropist you're probably doing stuff just as meaningful as pressing a red button to hurt people.

Lopen posted...

How many homeless people do you see every year that you do nothing to help?

some! but even if i'm the only person who saw them whilst homeless, surely it's disproportionate to attribute 10-20% of the death-responsibility to me compared to, like, everyone involved in their whole life before they became homeless, right?

Lopen posted...

How many people with depression do you attack in online arguments and send them further along a spiral?

hopefully not very many...

i guess i get what you mean that it's more about society than anything else, but in this case, all people have to do to get the society that isn't cruel is press the blue button, not like, overhaul all our institutions

If society is cruel pressing the blue button simply brings you death. It doesn't make society any less cruel. If anything it makes it more cruel because now you're dead and the evil reds are still alive.

And I'm not saying everyone is responsible for 10-20% of the death of a homeless person or a person they made feel bad or whatever else. I'm just saying over the net sum of their lives they probably add up to that several times through the things they do, knowingly malicious or unknowingly. I know many people who I suspect would press the blue button that have probably messed just MY life up more than the guilt of a button press, and I live a much better life than most people on the planet.

It's not 20% of one homeless person, but say you see hundreds of them and do nothing. Your percentage is still very low, but also much higher in terms of influence because a lot less than billions will interact with every person you interact with.

You're talking about tragedy of the commons, which does not apply here since everyone is forced to explicitly make a choice of blue vs red. You can't distribute the blame for that choice across a population, since it's entirely your choice and you can't pass it off onto anyone else. You can try to distribute the consequences of that choice, but no one actually cares about that. They only care that their direct action caused direct death (in your premise). Accepting direct responsibility for 1/10th of a death feels just as bad as 10 deaths. You still feel like a murderer.

This is why the only possible option is to absolve yourself of ALL the blame in this situation, which is what all reds would easily do.

foolm0r0n posted...

Accepting direct responsibility for 1/10th of a death feels just as bad as 10 deaths. You still feel like a murderer

Maybe not everyone would but I would be at peace with causing 1/10 of a death of some person I didn't directly interact with by pressing red. It's not "tragedy of the commons" it's how life works. We're all causing fractional deaths all the time because we can't see past what's immediately in front of us. The only difference is now we have a button, immediately in front of us, to press to represent we don't care about random people as much as we like to pretend we do.

You'd have a better hypothetical to signify the 10 deaths thing is if it was smaller scale like the Dark Knight social experiment thing.

Red. I'd feel awful about it, but at the end of the day it's the smart choice since no one dies if everyone chooses red. So anyone who chooses blue is a chump and I don't want to be a chump and die.