Current Events > Whose missile hit the hospital in Gaza?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yo_D_oY posted...

https://twitter.com/olilondontv/status/1715414447865410044

What the

Imagine trusting anything 'olilondon' says.

Would get more reliable information from a 3 year old hiding sweets.

Funkydog posted...

Imagine trusting anything 'olilondon' says.

Would get more reliable information from a 3 year old hiding sweets.

Yall believed hamas propaganda that 500 innocents were killed by Israel 5 minutes after it happened. Don't give me that bs.

Yo_D_oY posted...

Yall believed hamas propaganda that 500 innocents were killed by Israel 5 minutes after it happened. Don't give me that bs.

So it's okay to believe one sides lies as long as it's yours?

That individual is just a spreader of right wing hate in the UK and repeatedly twists things or outright makes them up in his desire to spread hate to whatever minority he can.

Funkydog posted...

So it's okay to believe one sides lies as long as it's yours?

That individual is just a spreader of right wing hate in the UK and repeatedly twists things or outright makes them up in his desire to spread hate to whatever minority he can.

Thanks for the info, I originally found the video and discussion on telegram of which contained more info on the individuals in the video. This guys tweet was the easiest way to share it here but I'll avoid sharing stuff from him in the future.

And no I don't agree. I believe in waiting for a clear picture before jumping to conclusions.

Yo_D_oY posted...

https://twitter.com/olilondontv/status/1715414447865410044

It could be I guess, but this is not exactly conclusive lol

CommonStar posted...

https://twitter.com/ForensicArchi/status/1715422493274427414

https://twitter.com/earshot_ngo/status/1715381907230232929

And also about the audio recording:
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1715426524826923353

From:

Forensic Architecture is an independent university-based research agency undertaking media and spatial research into state and corporate violence.

And dogmatically calls Israel/IDF the "IOF" or "Israeli Occupying Force" Checks out... totally unbiased.. *rollseyes*

They don't even really explain the contextual logic of their claims. The only logic in the theory is that artillery is one of the only things that can (almost) fit the un-handwaveable facts and still potentially be blamed on Israel.

As a few of the comments point out:

If it was an artillery round, how come none of the car body panels are cut up by shrapnel? You can talk about angles and directions and call them the Israeli Occupying Force all day long, but getting an expert to tell you why the cars aren't all shredded might easily shed some light.

The directionality of a rocket that is spinning out of control after a midair malfunction isn't relevant. You haven't addressed the opposing explanation at all here.

Also hasn't Hamas claimed to have recovered parts of an Israeli "bomb/rocket/missile" already or something? Evidence they "aren't ready" to allow anyone else to see yet. That would mean even Hamas has already ruled out artillery would it not? Or was that all part of yesterday's narrative/excuse?

The second link isn't much better:

earshot.ngo @earshot_ngo
Sonic investigations for communities affected by corporate, state, and environmental injustice.

https://twitter.com/ldejesusreyes/status/1715372967104827827?s=46&t=gRil6jLAB73DbZGagynlJQ

does not want to conduct an investigation into the bombing of the hospital. I wonder why.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-threatens-to-bomb-al-quds-hospital-in-gaza-palestinian-red-crescent/3027764

Oh look Israels threatening to bomb more hospitals

Where is the "It doesn't matter, Hamas still sucks and Israel is still an apartheid state" option?

LSGW_Zephyra posted...

Where is the "It doesn't matter, Hamas still sucks and Israel is still an apartheid state" option?

It matters because of the very large number of people not willing to acknowledge that the Israeli government and military are terrorists.

Funkydog posted...

So it's okay to believe one sides lies as long as it's yours?

That is an interesting question.

There does not seem to be any source, media or otherwise, that people trust. Certainly no one trusts their oppositions government mouthpieces and even news outlets like the BBC, CNN and such have lost credibility over the years. Likewise, modern politics is a team sport and left wont trust right and right wont trust left. Knowing this, perhaps the discussion is ultimately irrelevant to both the IDF and Hamas. Theyll keep killing until they or their opponents are dead.

Obviously hamas

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1715437877604049094

CobraGT posted...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1715437877604049094

Holy shit. Now the odds look to be that it was from Isarel. I'm just going to keep waiting for more evidence at this point. The reporter in the video says that this information is considered preliminary. Now I'm starting to think it was Isarel. No way I can say for sure either way. I just know that the lost of civilian lives is inexcusable.

"Israel doesn't bomb hospitals my ass."
They bomb churches, hospitals, mosques, and everything in between, including the children.
They unleashed 6000 air/strikes/bombings in the last 2 weeks...
do you call that minimalizing casualties?!

This whoel hamas human shields is bullshit too...

if you live in the squalor, and you have one army bombing the shit out of you and your family, while another army trying to fight against them.
chances are you are going to see the army fighting against the assholes bombing you and murdering your family and friends, as the heros, not the ones that just murdered your family.

So to them, they don't see the terrorrists commiting acts of terrorism, they see them as heroes trying to fight back against an army trying to commit genocide.. You can pretend all you like that if you were in the same position, you would never stoop so low, but let's face it.. If you are living in North America or Western Europe, you don't have much to fear... so it's easy for you to make assumptions.

It's like when someone says if they were homeless they would never steal or do anything wrong... If you're homeless, and starving, at some point you will resort to crime.. it's survival instinct.. the human brain is designed to fight back and survive.

ZaruenKosai posted...

Eh, I dont think youre being objective at all.

Of course Israel has and is bombing a variety of facilities. Thats why they drop leaflets and communicate warnings to civilians within the area to evacuate. They absolutely have killed civilians, however, which is expected when you have firefights and use ordnance in residential and commercial zones. The argument though is that Hamas does not employ the same types of warnings and in fact has targeted civilians specifically for execution and abduction. On the other hand, any stray IDF bullet, rocket or shell that kills even one Palestinian civilian could be viewed as unacceptable, but it does seem unrealistic to expect otherwise given the nature of modern weaponry in urban settings. If there is a practical real world solution to this, then lets heat it.

As for Hamas and human shields, denying that is just silly. They are not an armed force that fights in the classical battlefield sense. They are literally fortified and operating within and also underneath (ie tunnels) the neighborhoods being hit by the IDF. I think if you can not admit how that correlates to civilian deaths and the value it brings Hamas in generating sympathy from an individual (edit: or collective) outside audience, then Im not convinced youre even trying to be honest about the conflict.

UK Government says that it's investigation has concluded that most likely the missile was launched from Gaza towards Israel.

Six days after Hamas accused Israel of bombing a hospital in Gaza City and killing hundreds of people, the armed Palestinian group has yet to produce or describe any evidence linking Israel to the strike, says it cannot find the munition that hit the site and has declined to provide detail to support its count of the casualties.

...

The Hamas-run health ministry has also declined to release further details about those 471 victims, and all traces of the munition have seemingly vanished from the site of the blast, making it impossible to assess its provenance. Raising further questions about Hamass claims, the impact site turned out to be the hospital parking lot, and not the hospital itself.

On Sunday, Hamas turned down requests by The Times to view any available evidence of the munition it said had struck the hospital, claiming that it had disintegrated beyond recognition.

The missile has dissolved like salt in the water, said Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, in a phone interview. Its vaporized. Nothing is left.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-hospital-evidence.html

Lmao. Awfully convenient.

Trelve posted...

UK Government says that it's investigation has concluded that most likely the missile was launched from Gaza towards Israel.

The UK government is about as trustworthy as it is competent.

Senior Tory Priti Patel once had to resign from government for sharing secrets with Israel.

ai123 posted...

The UK government is about as trustworthy as it is competent.

Senior Tory Priti Patel once had to resign from government for sharing secrets with Israel.

I choose to believe the word of MI6 over Hamas or other terrorist groups.

Hard to say, both sides have lied as much as the other and we cant trust our government or even president on the matter. But Im leaning slightly towards Israel doing so.

It's insane that people are bending over backwards to defend Hamas. They are a terrorist organization that takes hostages, kills babies and gives no fucks about the Palestinian people they are claiming to "protect". Absolutely disgusting that anyone would try so hard to frame them in a positive light.

Who the fuck has been defending Hamas? What post specifically?

punkfanalways posted...

Who the fuck has been defending Hamas? What post specifically?

Any recent post expressing belief that Israel is responsible is de-facto defending Hamas.

Trelve posted...

I choose to believe the word of MI6 over Hamas or other terrorist groups.

You can choose to believe who you like.

If there was a credible statement from a source which didn't have a history of lying for the purposes of propaganda, I would be inclined to believe it.

But there isn't, so all I can say is 'I don't know'.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-hospital-evidence.html

Lmao. Awfully convenient.

So low effort. You'd think they would at least collect fragments from actual Israeli bombs from other places and try to pass those off as "evidence".

ai123 posted...

You can choose to believe who you like.

If there was a credible statement from a source which didn't have a history of lying for the purposes of propaganda, I would be inclined to believe it.

But there isn't, so all I can say is 'I don't know'.

Pretty much every intelligence agency has reached the same conclusion. Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to provide any evidence.

punkfanalways posted...

Who the fuck has been defending Hamas? What post specifically?

I was moreso referring to some of the tweets that are being posted. They are so desperately trying to frame this as Hamas being innocent in this. It's why I generally ignore anything I see posted that uses twitter/X as evidence.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Pretty much every intelligence agency has reached the same conclusion. Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to provide any evidence.

Intelligence agencies aren't known for impartial reporting. I don't want to 'choose' to believe anything.

I will wait to be convinced. Or not.

ai123 posted...

Intelligence agencies aren't known for impartial reporting. I don't want to 'choose' to believe anything.

I will wait to be convinced. Or not.

Okay, but why would you believe anything terrorists say?

Evil_Nice_Guy posted...

Okay, but why would you believe anything terrorists say?

I do not know what the source of the explosion is. I don't expect that I ever will know for certain.

Actually insane how well Israeli propaganda works

The people who talked about bombing hospitals, have committed a 70 year apartheid, have blown up hospitals previously, and fucking lie *constantly*?

Nah couldn't possibly be them

ai123 posted...

Intelligence agencies aren't known for impartial reporting. I don't want to 'choose' to believe anything.

I will wait to be convinced. Or not.

Guess you won't be convinced since Hamas says all remnants of the rocket have disappeared like magic.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Guess you won't be convinced since Hamas says all remnants of the rocket have disappeared like magic.

I accept that there are things I will never know for certain, due to the lack of trustworthy sources.

This is ground zero, the courtyard of the hospital

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/7/1/7/AAA_aCAAE9zV.jpg
I am no weapon expert, but it feels like an airstrike would cause a little bit more damage.
This might make some heads in this topic to explode, but Hamas is not the first, only, or last militant anti-Israel group in Gaza. Palestinian Islamic Jihad is another one.
And at the moment, it looks like they decided to join in on the fun and shoot some rockets at Israel. One misfired and hit the hospitals courtyard.
Hamas knew that their guys didnt fire rockets around there, so in their minds it must be Israel.
Showing up the remains of the warhead would help in explaining exactly what happened, which Hamas was supposed to do, but it has mysteriously disappeared. As is a list of people died at the hospital.
Chances are that they discovered that it wasnt Israel and that the death toll is lower, but they cant confess it. First they would lose a big piece of propaganda against Israel, and second they know that Israel would use it as propaganda against them Look, they lied all this time! That means that they lie all the time! We are innocent!
My posting history shows that Im on the innocent civilians side, and I love pointing out that Israel is no angel, but in this case it looks like it was an accident by a third party.

The fact that over 40% of yall think Israel did it just shows how terrible the media is at doing their job. The NYT just admitted that they shouldnt have believed Hamas, but the damage is done, and peace talks were cancelled cause people wanted to believe Israel was evil and turned a blind eye to a literal terrorist organization.

Foppe posted...

I am no weapon expert, but it feels like an airstrike would cause a little bit more damage.

That's a good point. That crater seems really small as well for a missile strike. I give up on trying to figure out who did it. No matter which way you lean the other side will say, "It's amazing how well propaganda works." I don't know who did it and I'll never know.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to provide any evidence.

What do you mean? They stated that everything magically disintegrated. If you can't trust that, then what CAN you trust?

CobraGT posted...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1715437877604049094

Very questionable claims... putting it nicely. The argument still pushes the air strike angle which is ridiculous and not even credibly alleged by any side anymore. An air strike would have leveled the area around the parking lot and obliterated the cars, trees and windows near ground zero. Leaving a ~70 foot wide crater at the point of impact. An air burst would have taken the top off the near by buildings or at least created some major damage to them.

Even if Isreal was behind the explosion, it was not be the means claimed in that source. Maybe if some brand new evidence comes to light, that will change, but that's how it stands now. Plus this isn't a new claim, the link has been going around for days now.

The fact that the source is "human rights investigators" instead of military or scientific ones, makes the claims especially suspect.

DepreceV2 posted...

That's a good point. That crater seems really small as well for a missile strike. I give up on trying to figure out who did it. No matter which way you lean the other side will say, "It's amazing how well propaganda works." I don't know who did it and I'll never know.

Don't you think that if Israel wanted to bomb the hospital...that they would've hit the hospital and not the parking lot?

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Don't you think that if Israel wanted to bomb the hospital...that they would've hit the hospital and not the parking lot?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

You're assuming they're good at their job, most of them are undisciplined and fold at the first sign of resistance.

They're idiots, all they're good for is bullying others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf-b3BorM4E

ZechtAurion posted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident

That was 1967. In 2023 they have the capability to shoot rockets out of the sky. Pretty sure they can hit a large stationary hospital.

James_xeno posted...

Very questionable claims... putting it nicely. The argument still pushes the air strike angle which is ridiculous and not even credibly alleged by any side anymore. An air strike would have leveled the area around the parking lot and obliterated the cars, trees and windows near ground zero. Leaving a ~70 foot wide crater at the point of impact. An air burst would have taken the top off the near by buildings or at least created some major damage to them.

Even if Isreal was behind the explosion, it was not be the means claimed in that source. Plus this isn't a new claim, the link has been going around for days now.

The fact that the source is "human rights investigators" instead of military or scientific ones, makes the claims especially suspect.

Here's an abbreviated summary of (relevant) Israeli munitions.

JDAMs are a class of guided bombs that could range in payload from 50kg to 500kg of high explosive. Even a 50kg bomb would have a more significant cratering than that, but not in the "70 foot" range. 50kg of explosive would probably produce a crater around 5m wide and 1m deep given the surface it landed on (thin tiles with soil underneath). Israel is primarily using JDAMs in their airstrikes because they are the cheapest "guided" munition available, and they don't have a lot of downsides as long as you have air supremacy over the area of operation (Which Israel does). If we are to take the "doppler effect" as evidence against Israel and at face value, however, we can with certainty rule out a JDAM as they do not have a ballistic trajectory that would create that kind of doppler effect pattern.

Delilah Missiles are a class of loiter precision missile system that are specialized for destroying enemy artillery and anti-air systems. They are complex and expensive missile systems with relatively small payloads (30-50kg HE) but have targeting and loitering capabilities that make them excel against conventional ground forces mobilizing modern artillery and ground missile systems. You could maybe argue that the 30kg payload MIGHT have a reduced crater if it hit a car first or... something. However, there isn't really any reason why this type of missile would even be used in this battlefield. To justify this would require one to argue that Israel is incompetent or flippant with its expensive missile systems, which just simply does not reflect Israel's deep expensive with missiles (See: Iron Dome).

Popeye Missiles are a group of simple air-launched missile systems dating back to the 80s which are a more traditional air-to-ground close air support tool for blowing up a variety of ground targets like caves, bunkers, tunnels, fortifications, and buildings. They're the appropriate type of missile to use against Hamas but the footprint of this attack... Does not match the massive 300kg+ warheads these missiles pack. We would be looking at an undeniable amount of destruction if a Popeye had hit the hospital parking lot, and the explosion probably would have completely destroyed all parts of the hospital facing the parking lot, if not the entire hospital itself. Plus, it would still be an expensive solution to a problem that an F-15E with a 500kg JDAM bomb could do for several times less.

Hellfire Missiles are a small and (relatively) cheap precision missiles that are specialized at hitting small targets like vehicles with great accuracy. As far as I'm aware Israel has a large stockpile of Hellfire Romeo missiles specifically, which have a variety of warhead options but none exceeding 10kg of HE. The use of a Hellfire would require either a weapons capable drone or an Apache helicopter in the area to deploy it though. This is really the only possible munition that would create such a crater feasibly, but if we were to argue for a Hellfire then we really need to ask what the purpose of the strike even was.

Supposedly Israel would have been targeting tunnel systems underneath the hospital that Hamas had dug, but a Hellfire Missile.... Well, it would be unlikely to destroy a tunnel network in those circumstances unless it was an absolutely perfect hit. That's possible, but only if you know the egress points of the tunnel to begin with. In Afghanistan it wouldn't be unreasonable to hit a cave mouth with a Hellfire, for instance, but just splashing the missile "generally" on top of the tunnels is not an effective solution. Which more or less begs the question, why would you use a missile against a static target when you have air supremacy and cheap guided bombs. Sometimes you use the tools that you have on hand even if they're not ideal, but this would not be a time-sensitive mission as far as I can tell.

From the context of the Israeli Military seeking to destroy an insurgency tunnel network under a hospital it just doesn't make a lot of sense.

Now, as a brief note, I can imagine some specific failure scenarios of a Hamas hand-made rocket failing mid-flight that could produce a similar audio effect to what's being described by the "debunk" video. If the missile were to destabilize in mid flight, it could very easily flip around in the air then rapidly plummet, creating this "coming and going" frequency pattern. It might even be possible for the rocket to rapidly decelerate mid flight if the rocket motor failed and it began to tumble, which might sound like the doppler effect as well as the rocket executes a tumbling routine as it. I don't necessarily know if the maths would support that kind of event, however.

Actually, here we go:

https://youtu.be/P6HcaYiuCK8?si=p1RUks_XH-tjKfkk

I decided to look at some of the camera footage to see if there was any visible veering in it before posting this message and found this from the WSJ, which shows a mid-air explosion then significant veering from a Gaza-launched rocket. This literally perfectly describes the "doppler effect" that the researchers found in the nearest camera's audio. The missile travelled some distance directly east before having a mid air failure and veering north towards the hospital.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Any recent post expressing belief that Israel is responsible is de-facto defending Hamas.

Saying you can't give Israel the benefit of the doubt is hardly the same as accepting Hamas at their word.

It's really not hard to walk the line between "hamas are unrepentant terrorists who should be brought to heel" and "Israel runs an apartheid state that is nothing short of a 24/7 human rights violation."

People can walk and chew gum at the same time.

McSame_as_Bush posted...

Pretty much every intelligence agency has reached the same conclusion. Meanwhile, Hamas has refused to provide any evidence.

How many of those intelligence agencies are either basing their conclusion of IDF-provided data, or have a stance of unconditional, to the point of "no matter what we hear, we're going to keep giving Israel guns and bombs," support for Israel?

It's very hard to consider certain intelligence sources as credible an unbiased in that situation.

I don't know whose evaluation I'd consider credible at this point, though, to be honest. Everyone has a horse in this race. Scientific American, maybe? I don't know except that intelligence agencies get the side eye when their country's policy is unmitigated support for one side of the conflict.

Pogo_Marimo posted...

Here's an abbreviated summary of (relevant) Israeli munitions.

That was not abbreviated, but it was very informative.

I almost feel like I'm on discord for having learned so much about munitions in one post.

DnDer posted...

That was not abbreviated, but it was very informative.

I almost feel like I'm on discord for having learned so much about munitions in one post.

It IS abbreviated but I get what your saying lol.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1716123222142550167

CommonStar posted...

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1716123222142550167

This is a new big ass thread from GeoConfirm that is asking many many questions, tries to answer many questions too, but still has many questions left:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1716123222142550167.html

The thing they corrected is this one:

Based on the investigations conducted by @fdov, @OAlexanderDK and @ArchieIrving2 its highly likely:

The missile on the initial Al Jazeera footage is an interceptor.

The explosion is too far away from the hospital to be related to the hospital explosion.

But that's the explosion in the sky.

Answered questions:

1. Is the missile visible in the Al Jazeera stream above or near the hospital?

Highly Likely not.

2. If an Iron Dome missile is involved, why was it fired above Gaza?

Not above Gaza, but highly likely at the edge, doing a 'normal' intercept.

22/X
3. If an Iron Dome missile is involved, can we identify past incidents of Iron Dome missile interceptions occurring above Gaza?

Not relevant, see 2.

23/X
4. If an interceptor was in action, what was its target? 5. What happened to the debris of the intercepted object ?
6. No debris?

Because of the estimates of the distance between the explosion and the hospital, it seems to be exploded too far away to have relevance.

Again: The explosion in the sky as seen in the live footage Al Jazeera got triangulated thanks to multiple PoVs and isn't able to have hit the hospital because it was too far away.

But that still doesn't answer what happend at the hospital:

Questions which are relevant now after this above investigation (restarted numbering):

A. If its a Tamir interceptor and it intercepted something above/in line of the hospital, doesnt this support the IDFs claim regarding rocket trajectory ?

A. Very relevant, although its now highly likely that it didnt intercept something above the hospital, it could have intercepted something that was shot over the hospital. What means that the possibility of another rocket failing still exists.

The biggest question is about the lack of debris.

B. Why is there still no footage/proof of debris that could identify what caused the explosion?

The thread still tries to explain many other things, including the crater analysis and if it was an possible air strike or even an artillery shell.

Conducting a crater analysis is an exceptionally challenging investigative task. Even with access to the impact site, it can take weeks to determine the type of ammunition and the direction of impact.

38/X
Depending on the underground and the angle of impact, the resulting spray pattern can vary significantly, possibly even by 180 degrees. The accuracy of such an analysis comes into question when the specifics of the munition used and the angle of impact remain unknown.

39/X
K. Why is a failed rocket launch still the most plausible possibility?

"Forensic analysis of images and videos suggests rocket caused Gaza hospital blast, not Israeli airstrike"

The biggest issue with finding absolute proof about the cause is the baffling lack of debris.

It's not baffling. It was removed by Hamas.