Lurker > Wanglicious

Jakyl25 posted...

I dont care that the same picture was already shared

Its the crowning image of the Trump Presidency

that's a tough one.
personally i'm still partial to the video of him walking with toilet paper on his foot but that's best as a video.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

in other news gamestop is currently going through either a ridiculous sale or a lot of cancelations.

buy 1 get 1 free.
on modern pre-owned games.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Corrik7 posted...

@Wanglicious

Is there any coupon codes for black friday for newegg?

I wanna get the M27Q from newegg but there was a coupon that made it $320 just a couple days ago. Any idea if a new one comes tomorrow?

Hopelessly torn between the M27Q and the LG27GL83A-B.

LG is $370 on amazon. M27Q is $360 on newegg. OOS before Xmas on amazon.

Newegg return policy sucks but I have never had a bad delivery from them.

I get 5% back at amazon if I shop there which makes it actually cheaper than the newegg monitor. But the M27Q looks like it is a better specced monitor.

I wish I hadn't missed the $40 off coupon a few days ago. Hoping one comes tomorrow to seal the deal regarding it.

newegg has become a crapshoot this year and that's been a trend for a while now. it's really hard to tell wtf they do with the chinese companies that have basically taken over.

if there's no immediate hurry, i'd wait. things should go back on sale as long as it wasn't a rebate. and at a wider level, i'd expect these current features to become a steady norm, largely because console gaming and pc gaming is merging again only this time it's on the features that made PC gaming flat out better. so you'll get more screens produced with high end specs since consoles are advertising that, which is just beneficial to everyone.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

that's a fair point. i shouldn't be approaching this in a corrik-ish lawful neutral way, obviously. i don't see how "you want more pardons, not less" works as a blanket statement, though. seems to me like you should examine on a case-by-case basis whether or not a pardon is justified.

pardons are definitely done case by case, there's just a lot of people in jail for dumb shit and their only way out is a pardon. the second you start a real limit is the second you start ticking down other limits. keeping it broad keeps it simple, no legalese to worry about, and again, it's the top of executive doing it. this is completely within their power when you follow along the chain: cops don't need to hold prisoners, cops don't need to charge you if they don't want to. judge can't do anything about that, legislature can't do anything about that. this is exclusively the power of the executive.

as for justified or not, that's a different argument you can have.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

RaidenGarai posted...

According to twitter, Flynn can be forced to testify against Trump now, and theres nothing he can do, and if he lies hes totally fucked.

No idea how true this is, but the fifth amendment trend seems to think this is going to bite Flynn and Trump in the ass.

oh yeah, this is true. now it depends on the wording of the pardon but doubt that's a concern.
also it's not like a presidential pardon prevents states from issuing their own charges under state laws either, should any apply. separate government, separate rules.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Mr Lasastryke posted...

how can anyone argue "the president can pardon criminals" is a good thing

...there's an implication that when you pardon, they're a criminal. now this doesn't always have to be the case but generally it leans to that direction and is usually applied to people who are.

Kenri posted...

Stop phrasing your own arguments as if they're things other people want. Either own it yourself or stop posting it.

nah, i'll phrase things how i want. in fact i'll do it more often instead just to piss you off~


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

you don't go for a single target for reform and the pardon isn't really something of a target for this either. it's the ultimate, last ditch hail mary available that is as absolute as it gets. logically it makes sense too since it's the executive who enforces the law after all; if the executive says you're free to go, then you're free to go, regardless of what anyone in any other branch says.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

absolute pardon power also makes sure there's no concern of legal arguments or bullshit to weave through. it's just done and whoever is the target of it is free to go.

also governors pardon too.

seriously, you want more pardons, not less, not more restrictions on it. you want this thing to be broad for maximum value and effect.

edit:
don't think he can self pardon, no.
it's an interesting question but leans towards a no he can't.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

pardon being powerful is a good thing.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

yeah at this point the game is expected to be $10 within 3-6 months.
game completely bombed.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

totally would take the money as well. that's a solid life changing amount.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

brains' a bit murky with that wording because law stuff being talked about. reasonable in a legal sense, yes. personally, lmao no. by all means if you wanna put the administration to task, go for it, but a defendant should always walk when the prosecutor drops the case. only exceptions that exist are pro-defendant, not pro-prosecution. that probably applies to all the west but definitely does for the US.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Only Sith deal in absolutes.

which itself is an absolute. <_<;

DoomTheGyarados posted...

In a vague sense yes. In this exact case no. I love nuance.

while courts love threading needles, this is a principle that's hammered down with the principle going in a singular direction: giving more protections to the the defendant. a reversal of that isn't nuance.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Actually not allowing corruption to use the letter of the law to avoid justice is the right choice.

not how the justice system works. better to let 10 guilty man go free and all that.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Like, the issue Wang is intentionally obfuscating here is that the Prosecutor for the Flynn case didnt withdraw the charges.

In fact I believe he resigned in protest of the charges being dropped from above his head (on Trumps direct order).

the prosecutor is not a single person in this case. Van Grack, the one who resigned, was one of the leads in it, and he resigned shortly after the FBI documents were unsealed. you can definitely say he resigned because of Trump/Barr pressure, you can also say he resigned because he fucked up the case by withholding that evidence. know what's the more important thing to say for a court though?

that the prosecution dropped the case. the rest of the circumstances don't matter.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

The prosecutor literally already argued the case!

and the prosecutor then dropped it.
which is all that matters because at that point, defendant walks. it's really that simple.

LordoftheMorons posted...

But if your position is just the president should be allowed to interfere in the prosecution of his allies then Ive spent enough time arguing this.

then your argument at that point can be that there either aren't enough laws restricting the executive in different ways or you're asking for a conspiracy charge of some sort.

your argument is not that a defendant is sent to jail after the prosecutor dropped the case. it's also not that the judge can determine, without the prosecution, to jail people. both are ridiculous positions to have. they drop the case, he walks, period. every single time. that's the way it should be, that's the way it is, and good luck finding a valid case that says otherwise.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

red sox 777 posted...

I haven't read up on the Flynn case but I have to presume the issue isn't super obvious, or Judge Sullivan would already have known he couldn't do that. Certainly, a judge cannot prosecute a case before himself. Perhaps what's driving the dispute is that a guilty plea was already entered? For example, a prosecutor cannot withdraw charges after the jury has returned a not guilty verdict and then charge the defendant again. Whereas he could have dismissed the charges before that.

so the Sineneng-Smith case happened in May, which was when the appeals court was ruling. before that you do have Fokker to work with, which is the purpose of the special prosecutor he alone created.

a guilty plea was entered but then it was taken back before any sentencing and there's no jury involved. it happened shortly before the DOJ dropped the case along with some 80 pages that detailed entrapment, withholding evidence, coercion by threatening his family, all documented. you can can tell from this topic, some believe that Barr/Trump forced it but that honestly doesn't matter - what we were left with as a result are two things: 1) the defendant rescinded his guilty plea, 2) the prosecutor has dropped the case.

both are perfectly fine to do, legally, and should result in the end of the case.
sullivan then hired his own prosecutor to determine if the prosecution should drop the case. this is completely separate from the executive, mind you. this got overruled on appeal but that got overruled on appeal again basically saying that he hasn't made any determination yet so they sent it back down, while also insulting him along the way.

that's where we are now. he pretty much has to let it go.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

uh, you do realize that Rule 48 is something for the defendant, right? it's straight up made because of prosecutor harassment! this runs under the same principle of a judge overruling against a guilty verdict by a jury. he can't do the opposite.

like using the same blog, here's something 10 days before it.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/justice-department-wants-drop-flynns-case-can-judge-say-no

in the one you linked they acknowledge that Rule 48 is totally a position made for the defendant but are trying to draw a distinction. thing is, it will always come down to the prosecutor is the government and the public good is the good of the defendant. like compare the two articles there and it's pretty blatant which side is arguing from precedent and case law and which side is trying to argue something completely new. and seriously it's like you aren't even reading what Ginsburg herself wrote when she penned the decision. once again:

"Courts are essentially passive instruments of government. They do not, or should not, sally forth each day looking for wrongs to right. They wait for cases to come to them, and when cases arise, courts normally decide only questions presented by the parties."

the court's role is passive. the court is not to try to look for wrongs to right. this is quite clear language here in what is a 9-0 decision, this isn't something that has wiggle room. you do not prosecute, you do not make guilty verdicts, add sentencing, etc. that's the job of the executive.

like i get that you may not like the case for whatever reason but you're actually arguing for the government to be able to jail without any prosecutor. that's completely against the separation of powers and goes wildly against law. and that is not a power you want to ever, ever, ever grant.

and if you want another article to read that gets into how those cases matter in more specific terms, here.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/markchenoweth/2020/05/14/judge-sullivan-disregards-two-controlling-precedents-by-appointing-amicus-in-flynn-case/?sh=4e40337c6f0a


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

he has not rejected it.
he filed a special prosecutor separately to determine if it should be rejected.

that distinction is quite literally the defense the appeals court gave him as they told him he pretty much has to because otherwise he'll have to get overruled since at that point he's looking for wrongs to right, as ginsburg put it. he would become the prosecutor at that point, which he, as a judge, can't do.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

only vornado.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Can you link to this decision you're talking about? I can find no SCOTUS case involving Flynn. As far as I can tell the most recent thing was that the DC circuit ruled against Sullivan 2-1, but then the court reverse it en banc 8-2.

not Flynn, no. the en banc decision is what i was talking about on explaining what they said.
9-0 case is United States v. Sineneng-Smith, happened a little before the en banc trial. for the Flynn case, the needle threaded to be compliant with Fokker (the other big case of recent times for this) was basically that, because Sullivan hasn't decided anything yet they aren't at a stage of no recourse, so the appeals court won't determine the trial. which is more or less court talk for 'if you go against the prosecutor, that's when we'll say you're overstepping so stop being dumb.' that was their way around Fokker.

Sineneng-Smith case was written by Ginsburg. quote:
"Courts are essentially passive instruments of government. They do not, or should not, sally forth each day looking for wrongs to right. They wait for cases to come to them, and when cases arise, courts normally decide only questions presented by the parties."

so while Sullivan has in actuality gotten involved the appeals court said not exactly because he hasn't determined a judgment yet. that's our key distinction between them for now. ...thing is if he rules in a way in opposition to the prosecutor it means that he alone is acting, which he can't do. rule should be pretty simple here really, if the prosecutor doesn't bring it up, defendant goes free. that ain't something you want to mess with as a principle.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Kenri posted...

Nah

according to the supreme court, yeah. 9-0 decision says so.
and according to the appeals too. since if you read the specifics of what was said, they basically told him to cut the shit and the only reason it's pushed down is due to a loose argument of "well he hasn't actually interfered yet because there's still a possible option that he doesn't do anything." which isn't really true but, well, they're letting him save face. judges gonna judge.

which is to say, if he does act against the prosecutor's wishes, they will strike it down since he actually can't do that.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

he pled guilty, then took it back under new counsel claiming it was under duress. that's completely valid. was at that point the FBI entrapment stuff came out, which led to the DOJ, the prosecutors of the case, to drop the case. regardless of whatever opinion you have that should be the end of it right there as judges have next to no power to continue the case. once the prosecution says drop it, the judge has to drop it.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1331423820582948864

Expected, but gross.

nah, flynn is one of those cases that shouldn't even need a pardon in the first place. with the info of what the FBI was doing the DOJ dropped the case and that should've been the end of it. instead Sullivan, the judge, appointed his own new prosecutor to determine whether or not it should be dropped, made himself part of the case, and doing something that was blatantly violates something that was recently ruled 9-0 ruled as something he can't be doing: the executive has sole discretion of prosecution, not the judiciary. ultimately Sullivan overstepped hard on what courts can do and that's why it kept going back and forth, he was basically told to stop being dumb.

don't give the FBI more power and don't make a situation where courts can literally appoint the prosecutor too. if the government says 'we drop the case,' the answer is the case is therefore dropped, not have another branch go 'now lemme see about that.'


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Grimlyn posted...

https://twitter.com/kevinabosch/status/1331339530318843911

Parler hacked lol

this looks to be fake news.
right now it's looking like the wordpress front end got hacked, not the database or anything related to parler itself.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

talk about timing.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/24/upshot/thanksgiving-dinner-survey.html
https://archive.is/Wd7il

Our data comes from interviews conducted by the global data and survey firm Dynata at the request of The New York Times. The firm asked a question about Thanksgiving plans, obtaining more than 150,000 survey responses from Nov. 13-23, enough data to provide estimates more detailed than at the state level.

Nationwide, the survey found that only around 27 percent of Americans plan to dine with people outside their household. That number is roughly consistent with the results of several recent smaller surveys, including those from YouGov, the Covid States Project and researchers at Ohio State University, which all find fewer than a third of Americans plan to celebrate in groups.

It also aligns with the results of a separate informal Times survey of epidemiologists. Out of 635 public health experts, only around 21 percent of them planned to celebrate Thanksgiving with people outside their household. The two surveys of ordinary Americans and of epidemiologists used identical question wording.

now the data varies by state and political affiliation, though the data still points to a range of 22-38% for party and roughly 20-35% for states. redder and mixed ones tend to be higher but it's not that big of a gap overall.

now this is of course just what people say. what they do, another story entirely.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

I dont think anybody is proposing literally banning people from traveling for the holidays, either. People are just being begged not to have big gatherings and being judged for doing so anyway.

oh there's definitely going to be an uptick for a ban on travel for Christmas. like we can just cut that at the head right now as a not that uncommon position you're going to see because things will get worse. it's a bit fringe right now because people who think that begrudgingly accept that people value the holidays and thanksgiving is just too close. with a month and worse situation? whole other story. that idea is just a case of it's not ripe yet but it definitely exists and everyone sees it.

for now a lot of the judgmental value comes from a mix of seeing that claim coming, of people who are just mentally exhausted, and of people who are in a state where that need and want is at best crossed and at worst just firmly in the 'need' category. you aren't going to get the sanest or most rational responses out of that but you've gotta understand where it's coming from to try to de-escalate that tension so you could bring it down.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Lets take it to a more concrete scenario

Wang, what would you say about someone who was actually knowingly infected and symptomatic who still felt so lonely and isolated that they had to socialize for the holidays.

Theres no way to justify that morally, IMO. For you?

yeah, i can't justify that morally, they're clearly in the wrong.
but i do understand it.

if it's Thanksgiving you can try to convince them to go for Christmas, that their body should have antibodies developed by then and that it will put them and everyone else in a much safer spot as opposed to a much more dangerous one.

if it's Christmas, shoot for New Years if they caught covid early enough. just steadily keep trying to push it down one of these event markers. if this doesn't work or isn't an option, persuasion will be harder. and i'm aware there's some who this would fail on completely, at that point you've got 2 extremes to work with: 1) use force to prevent them, aka, the government strongarm option. this will lead to a very clear line of escalation. 2) do nothing, aka, the health system will likely fail option. this will lead to a very clear line of escalation.

so you're looking to persuade or force somewhere in the middle. you could shoot for government bribes (pay people to stay at home let's do it), you could shoot for trying to use travel restrictions to make it more annoying but not impossible (currently implemented in some states). but if this person is a case where neither applies and they're just being spontaneous with it, i don't think you want to open the pandora's box of government essentially arresting someone.

Jakyl25 posted...

And thats why we are a failed society

disagree there, it's a check on government that matters.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

JeffreyRaze posted...

As someone who lost their brother to suicide I'm feeling really uncomfortable right now.

I'll also say suicidal ideation can very much be a chemical problem too, so uh. I'm not really sure what I'm trying to say, other than seek help, more people care about you than you know, etc.

honestly the situation is just messed up on all fronts and there's really no good answer. there's a lot of "should have happened" ideas that haven't and there's a lot of "should happen" that won't so we're getting stuck between a few different evils and there isn't a way to solve this cleanly.

the worst aspects of covid disproportionally affects people over 70, the worst aspects for mental disorders disproportionally affects people under 45 and even more under 25.

if you lock things down too much, you're gonna get a firm rejection and start triggering fight or flight responses with people rejecting more than they would have if it was simply left to guidance and best practices. if you don't lock anything down, you're gonna get a collapse of the medical system. these two aren't independent either, if one aspect fails so will the other (i.e., a collapse in the medical system will lead to more mental issues, a hamfisted lockdown will result in more violence and ironically more infections). there's an in between somewhere and nobody knows where it is, so the best that can be done is to see how everything is lining up and nudge people towards greater precautions without fucking everything up. basically, give validation to others as you reel 'em in. for most, that should work and seems to be the approach people like Fauci and Biden have gone towards. thanksgiving supposedly will have the majority of people taking more precautions (they say it in surveys but we'll see the reality of it) but Christmas is just another beast. have said it before but if you thought Happy Holidays was a "war on Christmas," good luck when it's "government doesn't want you to have Christmas."

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Thats where you need government to step in and say Your right to this holiday gathering does not supersede a public health emergency.

and that's when the guns come out as they say "make me."


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

And if were going to look at consequences beyond just death, fair enough

nono, two different aspects here.
beyond suicides.
death as a result of anxiety or depression can come in other forms as well, an increase of drug usage can cause OD, organ failure, etc.

from there it's consequences beyond just death. but that's two separate expansions.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

All this mental health data does is discuss issues people are having that cause them pain. If someone self-describes as lonely is there data on whether they specifically need in-person gatherings to resolve that? Is there data that says that family is what they miss and not just socializing? Because youre the one making these leaps and trying to equivocate the mass spread of COVID with suicidal loneliness and your stats dont carry enough substance to do that.

it's not a leap to say lockdowns lead to an increase of lonliness and isolation. that's just a normal connection.
i don't see why it matters if it's family or not there exactly, the people they're going for holidays are the people they want to see during holidays. so that's not a relevant point. and like i just told LOTM, there's way more than just suicidal lonliness here. you've gotta factor in all the ways mental health is collapsing because you won't find it in just suicide or drugs but it will keep seeping through various other directions. i also don't see why age is being ignored either because that's a pretty big deal as well; if over 50% of those under 44 have issues, over 75% of those under 24, and they're getting worse? yeah, that age matters.

Jakyl25 posted...

If someone is suicidally lonely then they must be the kind of person to have followed the COVID guidelines up to this point right? Why would they suddenly stop now just for a holiday.

nah, i'd assume they've broken whatever rule a couple times already.
but i still think the biggest issue here is you're still underestimating the value that holidays have. thanksgiving isn't "just a holiday" for many. Christmas damn sure ain't "just a holiday" and things are gonna be much worse by then too.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

That's suicidal thought. I'm talking about an actual increase in suicides comparable to the number of covid deaths. I have not seen any data suggesting that suicide beyond normal levels is taking place at nearly that scale.

dude, if you're looking for hard data you're asking for something we'll get in 2 years. it doesn't get processed that fast, for now you're going to surveys on suicidal thoughts, other mental illness, drug use, and smaller counties. right in the WaPo article you've got this blurb:

In Arizonas Pima County, officials have sent two health bulletins alerting doctors and hospitals to spikes in suicides. In Oregons Columbia County, the number of suicides by summer had already surpassed last years total. In the sprawling Chicago suburbs, DuPage County has reported a 23 percent rise compared with last year. And in the city itself, the number of suicides among African Americans has far surpassed the total for 2019, even as officials struggle to understand whether the deaths are being driven by the pandemic, racial unrest or both. What has shocked medical examiners in Chicago is the age range from a 57-year-old deputy police chief to a 9-year-old child.

an increase of 23% suicides matches quite well with the increase of 25% of suicidal thoughts. these are two gonna obviously correlate. if you're saying you haven't seen any data saying an increase, bluntly, you've been ignoring data and not looking for it at all.

and it ain't just suicidal thoughts, the increase of anxiety and depression correlates to an increase of drug usage and overdoses, addiction, and other harmful behavior. this ain't something to narrow the scope of either.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Paratroopa1 posted...

People are awfully quick to assume that the rise of mental health problems is solely as a result of being locked down and not the fact that people are dying and the world is burning down all around us

i mean if 70% of people with anxiety and depression are saying lonliness and isolation are top 3 reasons, they're telling you that it's a big reason. certainly not something you want to block during thanksgiving and christmas. you wanna try some limits, maybe some work, maybe some don't. but people who ain't gonna listen ain't all just doing it as a casual whatever.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

...the point of a crisis we're in right now that's going to get worse is to use rhetoric for something we'll get a watered down version of over the next decade?


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

"board invasion" stuff, much of which was just cross posting between boards.
probably related to ali, pew pew.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Until anybody shows me any credible data about deaths by suicide happening on the same scale as covid deaths this year I'm absolutely not going to entertain that as a reasonable excuse to have large holiday gatherings, particularly at the same time that hospitals are at their breaking points. I would be shocked if at this point we're not going to have people dying for preventable reasons by the end of the year because their weren't enough hospital resources.

did you just miss the end of the last topic.
because this issue is coming up as a result of information where 75% of people 18-24 have mental disorders/drug issues, same for 52% of 25-44. suicide rates have blown up through the roof, with data saying that over 25% of people 18-24 have thought about it in July to August, that an organization who keeps track of mental health found 178k people have reported it, of which 37% said in September was at least for half the month. of people who have had significant amounts of anxiety (up 93%) or depression (up 62%), 70% include lonliness and isolation as among the top 3 things as to why.

https://www.mhanational.org/issues/state-mental-health-america

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/23/covid-pandemic-rise-suicides/
https://archive.is/Bx0xP

dismissing like the way you're doing is not going to fix anything because a lot of people are at their breaking points too. fact is people are going to die no matter what approach is taken, so don't dismiss either concern as we're royally fucked right now.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

where's the Bunker Party, i'd like to join them.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

glad i copied and pasted this first.

Jakyl25 posted...

Thats EXACTLY what youre arguing though!

it's not exactly it, no, and you know there's no way to separate the issue of business/societal times to take a break. if you're in school, that's prime time for tests and papers. if you're at work, you're working. if neither applies to you, it may well apply to other people you're trying to meet. if none of those applies or to any of those involved, then okay, the difference between a November 10th and a November 26th feast/gathering shouldn't matter. but i'm saying it's cheeky because you're basically saying "if i strip everything from the day to everything but the day for every person involved it's no different." but that's not what things are really like. so yeah, cheeky. i get that this is tying back to your claim of it being arbitrary days but that's just not the reality we're in.

you'd have to add a couple more layers to Christmas to that too, between religion, Santa, presents, etc.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe this gets into my most controversial opinion

Unless you have dependents, you should absolutely have the right to commit suicide if you want to and it shouldnt be considered a tragedy. Everyone who is not taking care of someone else should have the unencumbered right to die.

i mean personally i'm not that far off from you on this but i also get that my personal opinion is outweighed by things like the goods the state should provide, social contract rules, and other more systemic reasons for why suicide should be treated negatively. which maybe is different than tragedy, though it overlaps. right now it seems euthanasia is the line between acceptable or not and i'm not sure there's any good reason to not allow it. like to be clear, i don't really personally disagree with a lot of what you're saying - i never was one for family celebrations, large gatherings, and i don't care for thanksgiving much. hell, i've explicitly said black friday is by far the better "holiday" and have been quite happy with its takeover over the past 15 years. my disagreement's just coming from the data, seeing what people are doing, hearing what they're saying, and it just matches up that yeah my personal take is in the minority on this one and isn't something i can morally justify against them.

Jakyl25 posted...

Also I want a source on that

I want a source that says people are more likely to kill themselves if they see their family on November 10th instead of November 26th

now you know that's just being cheeky. though now i do wonder what data is out there that covers the specific range versus another one, but i think for that data would totally focus more on Christmas due to religion, and i know you love that.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

JeffreyRaze posted...

Do you have the mental health numbers from before the pandemic? I recall them being worryingly high then too, though not this bad.

can probably find it for 2018 and 2019 in a few, WaPo article did have this chart for suicide too at least:



but i can look around for stuff. easiest starting point i found was here:
https://www.mhanational.org/issues/state-mental-health-america

covered data from a few years so you can see what things were pre-covid and the issues that were rising from 2016 to 2018 in most areas, good data tends to trail by 2 years. still, they had a January to September spotlight, and a few of their results showed (this is all copy/paste):

• From January to September 2020, 315,220 people took the anxiety screen, a 93 percent increase over the 2019 total number of anxiety screens. 534,784 people took the depression screen, a 62 percent increase over the 2019 total number of depression screens.
• More people are reporting frequent thoughts of suicide and self-harm than have ever been recorded in the MHA Screening program since its launch in 2014. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread rapidly in March 2020, over 178,000 people have reported frequent suicidal ideation. 37 percent of people reported having thoughts of suicide more than half or nearly every day in September 2020.
• People screening at risk for mental health conditions are struggling most with loneliness or isolation. From April to September 2020, among people who screened with moderate to severe symptoms of anxiety or depression, 70 percent reported that one of the top three things contributing to their mental health concerns was loneliness or isolation.

they raise a bunch of other points and get into specifics of race and LGBT but that copy/paste summarizes some of the key details without going too long in this post. i'd also point out that Jan to September is pretty firm election time so surely that's an element that's changed, but in what directions i don't know. it's also before the current spike of covid cases we got mainly in October, with us now looking like we're gonna hit and surpass peak levels this week. overall, safe bet that the current situation is rapidly worsening.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah and those people are stupid if they specifically place more value on those holidays than not following COVID protocols

I did say that yes, the days off from work are a factor and for that we must blame the government

But other than that its just tradition bullshit, and tradition is stupid

and that value of the holidays will affect mental health and stability.
you can say it's stupid but it exists, it's a real thing, and you should work with what's there instead of just dismissing it.

like really if you're gonna say they're potentially manslaughter suspects then trying to lock people down would make you an accomplice to potential manslaughter or suicide too. people are going to die on both ends here and there is no way to separate those who would really need this from those who just really want this, at least not on any macro level. if you start looking into the details, trying to limit gatherings, restrictions, etc at least you're arguing with full acknowledgement that it's morally right to allow this, you're just arguing about the specifics of finding that line between needs and wants, which is gonna be tricky since, by the data, shit is really, really fucked right now. if 1/4 people are thinking of suicide in a time when we by 8 months easily surpassed the previous year's totals, shit is really fucked. you gotta have leeway, especially with something that, and you may find it stupid, is as important as the holidays. you don't want these rates to get any worse than they have to either.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

10-15 should be fine for a lot of places but i'm not gonna start defending the super large ones and agree with trimming it down. that said, again, right in the data by the CDC: 75% of 18-24 have a mental/drug problem, 52% for those 25-44. if your group would normally be some 15-20 people, by the numbers you're still looking at double digits with issues and they may have gotten worse.

driving vs. flying, i don't get. flying is safer and has more precautions. it's also the more convenient of the two options.

if grandma is at the dinner and decides to do it, that's her decision too. i ain't gonna tell her that she can't do it if she wants to.

Jakyl25 posted...

Also the holidays are arbitrary so maybe they could see their family last week! Or next week!

but it's not thanksgiving or christmas if so.
people place value on that, it's what vacations are planned around, it's when those days are even offered for plenty who work. it's not really arbitrary as much as what's realistically there and trying to redfine it as that is some sort of redefinition bullshit of "well it doesn't really exist." nah, in our society, across every system, it exists and dismissing that just doesn't work.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

by the numbers, i'm not too sure of that!
right now if it'd help your mental health cool, go for it but know the risk. and if it'd help your mental health to not go cool, you've got an excuse. best of both worlds!

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Are they really not going to do a price drop on the PS4?

might do it after black friday.
it's not like black friday sales are the best for everything, there's usually some great stuff within the 2-3 weeks that follow, it just usually isn't in demand as much or would be in demand significantly more and thus overshadow what's there.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

here, so you get an idea of how bad things are right now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/23/covid-pandemic-rise-suicides/
https://archive.is/Bx0xP

Since the coronavirus arrived, depression and anxiety in America have become rampant. Federal surveys show 40 percent of Americans are now grappling with at least one mental health or drug-related problem. But young adults have been hit harder than any other age group, with 75 percent struggling.

Even more alarming, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently asked young adults if they had thought about killing themselves in the past 30 days, 1 of 4 said they had.

Americas system for monitoring suicides is so broken and slow that experts wont know until roughly two years after the pandemic whether suicides have risen nationally. But coroners and medical examiners are already seeing troubling signs.

In Arizonas Pima County, officials have sent two health bulletins alerting doctors and hospitals to spikes in suicides. In Oregons Columbia County, the number of suicides by summer had already surpassed last years total. In the sprawling Chicago suburbs, DuPage County has reported a 23 percent rise compared with last year. And in the city itself, the number of suicides among African Americans has far surpassed the total for 2019, even as officials struggle to understand whether the deaths are being driven by the pandemic, racial unrest or both. What has shocked medical examiners in Chicago is the age range from a 57-year-old deputy police chief to a 9-year-old child.

there's a lot more in the article as it's really long and it covers a few stories but that's the relevant part. but with data like this:


i can't say it's wrong to want to see family and friends for thanksgiving and christmas. you can call it selfish but right now a lot of people need that too as trying to restrict it will break them. damned if you do, damned if you don't.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Oh I know Im not getting it, Im just judging them all as potential manslaughter suspects

in their defense, mental health is in shambles so for many this is just a way to feel better. normally not the best of excuses but when suicide, drug use, drug addictions, etc are through the roof, it matters. if you're going to argue them as morally potential manslaughter suspects, then you're also in that moral ground if you don't want them to go anywhere because you're taking away a key thing to help in their mental health that would otherwise crush it.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

i mean you can say it's pure selfishness but people will still do it. it's literally thanksgiving and christmas, you are not getting compliance by the masses. its been 9 months, no, not happening.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

haven't seen it yet but i'm assuming this is referring to the lockdowns and restrictions politicians are trying to put in.
which most people are ignoring anyway; LAX is full of people, Whitmer's got articles of impeachment filed and lawsuits, politicians themselves ain't following the rules, and i think everyone knows a number of people who just ain't gonna listen. i mean shit, there was a Jewish wedding here in NYC with thousands of people that happened and that got Cuomo super pissed. there's definitely going to be nothing peaceful if you try to do lockdowns on Thanksgiving or Christmas and it'll be flatly rejected across the spectrum.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

so with ingram also pulling back, what's left of the major fox hosts? hannity, who else? wasn't expecting her to follow along with... well, reality, so soon publicly on the show.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.