Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 207: Sinema Vérité

(+) Yeah! (+)

Ok so here are the currently outstanding mail in ballots in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061083396259045377

The most important bits are:
Maricopa - 266k (going to Sinema currently but this was a Flake district 6 years ago - barely. She is doing well in the mail-ins so far though but it is a heterogenous county and huge so if you're a pessimist like me this is what you're worried about. If Sinema can even do 50-50 at this point though she's won.)
Pima - 60.8k (This is huge for Sinema. Last time they did a 20k update and it boosted Sinema by 7k. It is Sinema's strongest district overall and the fact it is second highest in votes left is very good.)
Pinal - 26.8k (This is good for McSally. She probably ran up her highest numbers here just because it is big and favored McSally 55-41. However, 55-41 isn't going to be nearly enough here, and like 3k came in early today and it barely made a dent in the margins)
Coconico - 9.6k (This county is even better for Sinema that Pima. It went 62-35 her favor on election night so you would expect a good gain here for her)
Navajo - 4k (It was 50-46 McSally on election night, and early voting is leaning Sinema overall so this probably won't do much in either direction)
Mohave - 2k (This is McSally's best county by percentages. 70 to 27 basically. But 2k is such a small number it won't really help at this point)

Overall, this is great for Sinema. Coconico and Pima have 70k between them, while counties favoring McSally only have 33k between them. For McSallly to win, she needs huge numbers in the remaining Maricopa votes. Like...60-40 basically. Possible, depending where the votes are from, but I'd say edge to Sinema for sure.
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https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1061069227673731072

BUT HER EMAILS
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I have to admit.

That seems like the ultimate form of But Her Emails.
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HashtagSEP posted...

Wait, Whitaker actually said Marbury v Madison was "wrongly decided?"

So yes if you are STRICT constitution originalist this is actually true

The court does not ACTUALLY have the power to decide whether things are constitutional or not based on the text of the document.

Most Originalists still use the Federalist papers and writings of the founders to complement their originalism because to do otherwise is fucking stupid but then there's Matt Whitaker: apparently stupid
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Eddv posted...

HashtagSEP posted...

Wait, Whitaker actually said Marbury v Madison was "wrongly decided?"

So yes if you are STRICT constitution originalist this is actually true

The court does not ACTUALLY have the power to decide whether things are constitutional or not based on the text of the document.

Most Originalists still use the Federalist papers and writings of the founders to complement their originalism because to do otherwise is fucking stupid but then there's Matt Whitaker: apparently stupid

Stupid, or just a complete Trump toady?
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Ok so here are the currently outstanding mail in ballots in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061083396259045377

The most important bits are:
Maricopa - 266k (going to Sinema currently but this was a Flake district 6 years ago - barely. She is doing well in the mail-ins so far though but it is a heterogenous county and huge so if you're a pessimist like me this is what you're worried about. If Sinema can even do 50-50 at this point though she's won.)
Pima - 60.8k (This is huge for Sinema. Last time they did a 20k update and it boosted Sinema by 7k. It is Sinema's strongest district overall and the fact it is second highest in votes left is very good.)
Pinal - 26.8k (This is good for McSally. She probably ran up her highest numbers here just because it is big and favored McSally 55-41. However, 55-41 isn't going to be nearly enough here, and like 3k came in early today and it barely made a dent in the margins)
Coconico - 9.6k (This county is even better for Sinema that Pima. It went 62-35 her favor on election night so you would expect a good gain here for her)
Navajo - 4k (It was 50-46 McSally on election night, and early voting is leaning Sinema overall so this probably won't do much in either direction)
Mohave - 2k (This is McSally's best county by percentages. 70 to 27 basically. But 2k is such a small number it won't really help at this point)

Overall, this is great for Sinema. Coconico and Pima have 70k between them, while counties favoring McSally only have 33k between them. For McSallly to win, she needs huge numbers in the remaining Maricopa votes. Like...60-40 basically. Possible, depending where the votes are from, but I'd say edge to Sinema for sure.

Coconino was historically a red county, until quite recently. It's the huge rural county in which the Grand Canyon is located. Last election it went blue and there is a trend of counties with national parks going blue, but 62-35 is way above what I would have expected there. Wouldn't count out a lot of the remaining votes going to McSally to make it more respectable a margin in the end.
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Well that would be one hell of a troll by the Trump Admin - get a majority on the Supreme Court; use it to neuter the Supreme Court
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red sox 777 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Ok so here are the currently outstanding mail in ballots in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061083396259045377

The most important bits are:
Maricopa - 266k (going to Sinema currently but this was a Flake district 6 years ago - barely. She is doing well in the mail-ins so far though but it is a heterogenous county and huge so if you're a pessimist like me this is what you're worried about. If Sinema can even do 50-50 at this point though she's won.)
Pima - 60.8k (This is huge for Sinema. Last time they did a 20k update and it boosted Sinema by 7k. It is Sinema's strongest district overall and the fact it is second highest in votes left is very good.)
Pinal - 26.8k (This is good for McSally. She probably ran up her highest numbers here just because it is big and favored McSally 55-41. However, 55-41 isn't going to be nearly enough here, and like 3k came in early today and it barely made a dent in the margins)
Coconico - 9.6k (This county is even better for Sinema that Pima. It went 62-35 her favor on election night so you would expect a good gain here for her)
Navajo - 4k (It was 50-46 McSally on election night, and early voting is leaning Sinema overall so this probably won't do much in either direction)
Mohave - 2k (This is McSally's best county by percentages. 70 to 27 basically. But 2k is such a small number it won't really help at this point)

Overall, this is great for Sinema. Coconico and Pima have 70k between them, while counties favoring McSally only have 33k between them. For McSallly to win, she needs huge numbers in the remaining Maricopa votes. Like...60-40 basically. Possible, depending where the votes are from, but I'd say edge to Sinema for sure.

Coconino was historically a red county, until quite recently. It's the huge rural county in which the Grand Canyon is located. Last election it went blue and there is a trend of counties with national parks going blue, but 62-35 is way above what I would have expected there. Wouldn't count out a lot of the remaining votes going to McSally to make it more respectable a margin in the end.

It went 56-37 Clinton to Trump, and Sinema is a better candidate.

So, nah, I don't think you're right.
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Hmm, Coconino went 54-35 for Clinton in 2016 - a bigger margin than I remembered. 56-41 in 2012. Interesting. Driving through it, you would think it was ruby red, same as Grand County, Utah, which is 50/50.
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But yeah, a Republican can't expect to lose Maricopa by more than 2 points and win Arizona. There are just not enough votes in the other red counties to make a big dent against the margin that will be run up in Pima and 2 points in Maricopa.
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And I was completely wrong about Coconino being a red county before. Not sure why I thought that, but it's voted blue in every presidential election since at least 1992. Sorry guys.
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Woah, a redsox recant.
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I don't worry about Coconino coming back in Sinema's favor, but I could see tightening in Maricopa based on past results. Could be red counties overrepresented in last couple batches of votes from the area.

Maricopa is what scares me still.
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red sox 777 posted...

And I was completely wrong about Coconino being a red county before. Not sure why I thought that, but it's voted blue in every presidential election since at least 1992. Sorry guys.

Yeah. I was about to say....I've lived in Flagstaff for 18 years. Coconino county is Flagstaff and Sedona. That's literally college kids and hippies.
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One note for Sinema that I discovered after reading into her the past week that I haven't seen a lot of talking about in the places I frequent: I think progressives within our party are going to hate her. Republicans have been running ads of her being some fringe lunatic, tutu wearing anti war activist that is just a younger prettier Bernie Sanders.

I've shown the 538 tracking page where it documents how often senators vote with Trump. Donnelly scored a 53.8. Heitkamp was a 54.4. Manchin, who I'm sure everyone has seen people complaining about at some point, topped the Dems at 60.8. Well, they did that with the house too.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/kyrsten-sinema/

Sinema is a 62.2. She's more conservative than Joe Manchin. And, unlike Joe Manchin, she isn't from some deep red state. Based on partisanship, the ideal senator from Arizona would vote with Trump 59.5 percent of the time. So she's actually more conservative than a replacement senator from Arizona. Jeff Flake was "only" a 84.0. So she is closer to Jeff Flak than any other member of her party outside of Warner, Jones, and Manchin (everyone else that is above 40.4 either just got kicked out of congress or is an independent).

(McSally was a 97.8 so we're definitely rooting for Sinema here)

The National Journal scores her as 57% liberal and 43% conservative. There are only three democrats more conservative than her in the entire house.

The strange thing here is that all the slander and ads against her showing her from when she was like 25 might have worked. A lot of people on like r/politics or Twitter thinks she's going to be some liberal savior. I just think a lot of people are going to be disappointed if she gets in the senate and starts voting.
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And obviously there are a lot of votes Manchin and other senators had to make that Sinema didn't. So it isn't a 1 to 1 comparison, but I think it should at least give an idea of the sort of senator we should expect from her. She's gone as far to say that Manchin is her role model in the senate already, so we're basically getting another one of those.
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The hit job continues!

I'm on to you, sir

I'm on to you
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That isn't a hit job! I actually think it was quite smart to put up a conservative democrat in Arizona! She's a gateway democrat. Get them hooked on a little Sinema, thinking 'oh hey this liberalism isn't so bad' and in two years time they'll be mainlining Sanders and out on a corner selling a phonebook to try and get a hit of Warren.

I mean, it isn't like I'm here, posting on B8, thinking that maybe if I'm down enough on Sinema it will somehow retroactively change the votes that were cast.

Heh.

Heh heh.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Ahem.
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Well played, you devious, dastardly soul

Well played indeed.

Fortunately, I foresaw this. Those ballots? Decoys. Decoys!
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I'm actually a really big fan of moderate to conservative democrats in red states. Big fan of Manchin and Tester and anyone that can help us get numbers to get good legislation passed. I don't care if they vote against us 60% of the time because 40% is a hell of a lot better than 0%.

If Sinema pulls this off, she's a hero. A democrat hasn't won a senate seat in Arizona since 1988. In the governor race, where the democrats nominated someone I quite liked and was super progressive and proud of it, the republicans pounded in our faces by like 15 points. Some of that is incumbency, sure, but maybe in Arizona running someone like Sinema is better for our long term chances.

I just want to win.
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One thing that I think was a big contributing factor to Tester succeeding where Donnelly and McCaskill failed is that he totally owned his votes instead of pretending to be pro-Trump.
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People like Manchin and Tester help you guys. The people who demanded changes to Obamacare that made it much worse so that it would look less liberal hurt you guys.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I'm actually a really big fan of moderate to conservative democrats in red states. Big fan of Manchin and Tester and anyone that can help us get numbers to get good legislation passed. I don't care if they vote against us 60% of the time because 40% is a hell of a lot better than 0%.

If Sinema pulls this off, she's a hero. A democrat hasn't won a senate seat in Arizona since 1988. In the governor race, where the democrats nominated someone I quite liked and was super progressive and proud of it, the republicans pounded in our faces by like 15 points. Some of that is incumbency, sure, but maybe in Arizona running someone like Sinema is better for our long term chances.

I just want to win.

I agree, Democrats should be running the most liberal candidate that can win the election. Sometimes that's Ocasio-Cortez; sometimes that's Sinema.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/leading-house-democrat-calls-pelosi-step-down-n808091?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

The 5th ranking House Democrat asked Pelosi to step down, thanking her, but basically saying its time for new blood.

She also asked the 2nd and 3rd ranking Dems to step down.

Which makes sense, but its hard not think shes asking 3 of the 4 people above her to step aside so she can take control?

I honestly know nothing about her, so I cant say.
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Tester is the most interesting democrat, by far I think. I did a big post on him already and I've gushed about him enough, but him being a -48.2 on the voting vs how a senator from his state should vote and winning reelection without too much difficulty is tremendously impressive. Like you said, he owns his votes and is just upfront with everything and connects with his voters in a way few politicians do. He fought with Trump more than any other red state democrat. Yet, he won and everyone else is gone (besides Manchin).

It is interesting because Manchin was pretty much the opposite example, and these are the two that won and everyone in between them got booted. A lot of that is due to candidate quality. But I think these two also were the most genuine (or at least they seemed to me) and direct with their policy positions, even if they were on opposite ends of the moderate spectrum.
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Yeah I think Manchin was the only one who voted with Trump 60% (or whatever) of the time because he actually agreed with Trump 60% of the time. Donnelly and McCaskill really are moderate for Democrats, but its still clear that a lot of the time they voted with Trump for political reasons (maybe 50% instead of 35%, again too lazy to look up actual numbers). Like when Donelly said he would need to consider Trumps ridiculous suggestion of getting rid of birthright citizenship hes clearly full of shit, and its a bummer because hes better than that.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/leading-house-democrat-calls-pelosi-step-down-n808091?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

The 5th ranking House Democrat asked Pelosi to step down, thanking her, but basically saying its time for new blood.

She also asked the 2nd and 3rd ranking Dems to step down.

Which makes sense, but its hard not think shes asking 3 of the 4 people above her to step aside so she can take control?

I honestly know nothing about her, so I cant say.

2017?
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Imma take a wild guess and say that article must be intentionally recirculating due to some Trump Trolls wanting to spread the idea that the House Dems are not generally united

There is an ideological clash, but nothing really even close to, say, Freedom Caucus levels
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Btw exit polling had women go 59-40 for Democrats in the midterms.

So yeah keep alienating women, GOP.
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Harder took the lead from Denham in CA-10 yesterday. I'm seeing 100% of reporting, but I think provisional ballots are still left. Either way there's only a couple thousand votes separating them, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
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This parody article is kind-of amazing

https://thehardtimes.net/news/dd-party-member-with-3-charisma-keeps-trying-to-fucking-roll-deception/
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Kenri posted...

Harder took the lead from Denham in CA-10 yesterday. I'm seeing 100% of reporting, but I think provisional ballots are still left. Either way there's only a couple thousand votes separating them, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

Haven't been able to find a number for outstanding votes either, but yeah, I'm optimistic there too.

~~~

Meanwhile, Trump cancels a visit to a US military cemetery in Paris for WWI. WH claims weather, but Trudeau, Macron, and Merkel all attended events.

~~~

Also meanwhile, Erdogan claims to have given audio recording of Khashoggi's murder to the US, UK, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia. First time he's said he did so, though reporting that the tape existed and was heard by the US and Europe has been out there for a while.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Imma take a wild guess and say that article must be intentionally recirculating due to some Trump Trolls wanting to spread the idea that the House Dems are not generally united

There is an ideological clash, but nothing really even close to, say, Freedom Caucus levels

Ope.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

but its hard not think shes asking 3 of the 4 people above her to step aside so she can take control?

Aside from being a 2017 article (lol). The 4th person ranked above her would be Crowley, who was defeated by AOC (though again since the article is 2017 this hadn't actually happened yet.) Crowley was also the one directly ahead of her. He was the chair of the caucus and she was the vice-chair.

As for actual present-day leadership challenges to Pelosi. The name I've heard the most leading up to all this (as in like going back a year plus) is Tim Ryan and recently when asked about it his answer struck me as though it wasn't going to go anywhere if it even happens.

I've heard there's a group of 10-12 representatives who claim they'll stick together and call for new leadership but "good luck" the Dem House majority can absorb that. The highest number I've heard is "up to 20" which is still lol in terms of 20 people trying to dictate to the other 210-215 but is at least not a totally insignificant number to the math of this, though they could all just vote present on the Speaker vote and again whatever. Though in all this numbers talk I don't think anyone has yet got a list of these people.
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I dunno the details so it may have legit reasoning, but it seems apalling to take federal aid from those affected by forest fires in California
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xp1337 posted...

Haven't been able to find a number for outstanding votes either, but yeah, I'm optimistic there too.

From what I hear from one of my friends (who has worked for both Denham and Harder), it's either corrupt or just enough of a shitshow out here that we're not ever going to get a number for outstanding votes. It'll just eventually be "wup there's the last of em", probably in like a week. <_<

Surprised I haven't heard more claims of voter fraud on this one!
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Corrik posted...

I dunno the details so it may have legit reasoning, but it seems apalling to take federal aid from those affected by forest fires in California

Take it for what?
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I think he's referring to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061168803218948096

Wherein Trump seems to not understand how wildfires work, what federal funding for forests goes to, and thinks it is a good idea to tweet this while people are dying and losing their homes.

It is not a good tweet. Even if there was reasoning for behind it that isn't obvious here, it is a bad time to tweet something ike that.
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But he wasn't *quite* threatening to take federal aid from those affected by this forest fire, just threatening to take federal aid from the state of California in the future because they are having forest fires.
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xp1337 posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

but its hard not think shes asking 3 of the 4 people above her to step aside so she can take control?

Aside from being a 2017 article (lol). The 4th person ranked above her would be Crowley, who was defeated by AOC (though again since the article is 2017 this hadn't actually happened yet.) Crowley was also the one directly ahead of her. He was the chair of the caucus and she was the vice-chair.

As for actual present-day leadership challenges to Pelosi. The name I've heard the most leading up to all this (as in like going back a year plus) is Tim Ryan and recently when asked about it his answer struck me as though it wasn't going to go anywhere if it even happens.

I've heard there's a group of 10-12 representatives who claim they'll stick together and call for new leadership but "good luck" the Dem House majority can absorb that. The highest number I've heard is "up to 20" which is still lol in terms of 20 people trying to dictate to the other 210-215 but is at least not a totally insignificant number to the math of this, though they could all just vote present on the Speaker vote and again whatever. Though in all this numbers talk I don't think anyone has yet got a list of these people.

The House Freedom Caucus showed us that 30-40 can dictate to 400, kind of. But I wouldn't expect Democrats to have that kind of spine
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Someone please tell Trump that forest fires predominantly happen in the Republican parts of CA.
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Almost all of Mohave (McSally's best district percentagewise) has come in addition to Pinal (still around 22k left there after a 4k or so drop today). This has lowered Sinema's lead from 20.2 to 19.2.

The good news for Sinema is that she is running ahead of her election night totals basically everywhere in early vote returns, which is to be expected. Also Mohave now has just a couple hundred provisional votes left. That leaves Pinal (22k) and Najavo (4k and election night was only a slight lead) as McSally counties outstanding. Sinema still has Pima (60.8k) and Coconino (9.6k) which were her two best counties election night.

Maricopa will have another drop tonight. This is what everyone is waiting for as the bulk of the votes are here (266k). The first two went to Sinema by a good margin, but the reason 538 only has this race as a lean D at the moment is because it is hard to predict where the outstanding ballots are from in the heterogenous district so McSally's best (and only) hope is that the early ballots were tilted in Sinema's favor while the latter will be in hers just due to some random chance. If Sinema wins big again, it starts to become very hard for McSally to have any sort of chance as she'd need to take the last drop by like 70% to 30%
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My understanding of the AZ SEN Maricopa vote drops is that the first batches (and presumably at least the next one, though it depends on how many they total) is that there's a pile of them that are the "late" early votes that they received late enough that they weren't totaled with the rest of the early vote and these are expected (and have been) more Sinema-friendly. Then there's a pile that were dropped off in person on EDay and these are expected to be more McSally-friendly.

It's not really to do with where in Maricopa these are from (though that would be a factor) but when. At this point more of the remaining Maricopa ballots should be in that latter category I think (and thus McSally's only hope) but Sinema has been running ahead of her EDay margins in the other counties so Sinema's lead will be stronger than expected and thus harder for McSally to catch even though there's a large batch (I think it's ~195k) of Maricopa outstanding votes that should be friendlier to her. Sinema still has outstanding votes in Marciopa that should be friendly to her and Pima.

tl;dr: The Maricopa county outstanding ballots can be divided by time received with the earlier ones being better for Sinema. McSally therefore should make a run with the last ~195k Maricopa votes when we get there but she'd need to run her margins up high there and not only has that not really been the case in other counties, but Pima remains as another source for Sinema to add to her lead.
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Really good batch of votes for McSally from Navajo and Sinema now leads by 18.7k votes.

These just went for McSally 61-36. This is way above her Election Day totals. No indication what kind of ballots these were, but they were the first ones I remember seeing that went significantly to McSally compared to Election Day.

This is what she needs from Maricopa.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I think he's referring to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061168803218948096

Wherein Trump seems to not understand how wildfires work, what federal funding for forests goes to, and thinks it is a good idea to tweet this while people are dying and losing their homes.

It is not a good tweet. Even if there was reasoning for behind it that isn't obvious here, it is a bad time to tweet something ike that.

Oh

I like how Corrik is just giving this blatant display of cruelty enough benefit of the doubt that there might be a good reason!

Like what in the history of Trump leads you to even entertain the idea that there might be something youre missing?
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https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1061272461256388608?s=21

White House announces POTUS to give presidential Medal of Freedom, the nations highest civilian honor, to:

Elvis Presley
Babe Ruth
Antonin Scalia
Roger Staubach
Alan Page
Orrin Hatch
Miriam Adelson

This is the American equivalent of knighting someone right?

Surprised Ruth and Presley didnt have this already
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Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

I think he's referring to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1061168803218948096

Wherein Trump seems to not understand how wildfires work, what federal funding for forests goes to, and thinks it is a good idea to tweet this while people are dying and losing their homes.

It is not a good tweet. Even if there was reasoning for behind it that isn't obvious here, it is a bad time to tweet something ike that.

Oh

I like how Corrik is just giving this blatant display of cruelty enough benefit of the doubt that there might be a good reason!

Like what in the history of Trump leads you to even entertain the idea that there might be something youre missing?

You should talk to someone. I think you need help. There is something wrong with you, Jakyl.
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what
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Well yes I am on multiple medications
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https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/1061335780704972800?s=21

This was a good laugh
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