Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 207: Sinema Vérité

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/1061335780704972800?s=21

This was a good laugh

lol
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1061272461256388608?s=21

White House announces POTUS to give presidential Medal of Freedom, the nations highest civilian honor, to:

Elvis Presley
Babe Ruth
Antonin Scalia
Roger Staubach
Alan Page
Orrin Hatch
Miriam Adelson

This is the American equivalent of knighting someone right?

Surprised Ruth and Presley didnt have this already

Notably, Miriam and Sheldon Adelson are some of the biggest (maybe the biggest?) GOP donors.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Well yes I am on multiple medications

Get them upped. Like no offense but you are so desperate for validation and acceptance that you act abnormal and say very off the wall shit.
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Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Well yes I am on multiple medications

Get them upped. Like no offense but you are so desperate for validation and acceptance that you act abnormal and say very off the wall shit.

Says the guy who thinks laws are inherently good
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must make playing dnd difficult

can you imagine the argument that breaks out when someone says they're playing a lawful evil character
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Another batch of late "early" votes came in from Navajo, and McSally ran up huge numbers again. This is a small district so it net like 200 votes, but if you see something similar from Maricopa she could very easily win.
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Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Well yes I am on multiple medications

Get them upped. Like no offense but you are so desperate for validation and acceptance that you act abnormal and say very off the wall shit.

Dude what
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Corrik shut fuck up you God damn moron.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Another batch of late "early" votes came in from Navajo, and McSally ran up huge numbers again. This is a small district so it net like 200 votes, but if you see something similar from Maricopa she could very easily win.

If McSally wins, watch the republican message IMMEDIATELY flip from "this is a Democrat scheme" to "thank God they did the right thing and took their time with the counts", followed by them acting like they never claimed otherwise.
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I will say Corrik is partially right.

I say what I say in response to his posts sometimes for validation, yes.

Not validation that Im right, or for personal acknowledgement, but rather for validation that his worldview is wrong.

I think thats partially what leads people to respond to people like Ulti too. Back when I was baited by him more regularly, it was because I needed to know that he was wrong, and we werent really living in the world as he perceived it, because his views are so twisted.

Now I feel a lot more comfortable that no one takes Ulti seriously at all aside from a few brief lapses in judgment

I do still worry that many people share Corriks abhorrent worldview though
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Yeah, McSally is finally starting to show the kind of margins she would need to make a real run at this. Small districts, but still.

tbqh though I don't see too much point in stressing until we see Maricopa's drop today. It'll probably be the last of the pro-Sinema ones there and then we can see where the race stands and take in all the other additions that came in for the day.

I'd be going nuts if I reacted to every small update going on there I think.
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Jakyl25 posted...

I do still worry that many people share Corriks abhorrent worldview though

Speaking of abhorrent worldviews, I had a very interesting conversation with my mother earlier today that basically boiled down to "I was watching Fox News yesterday for the first time in a long time and I was incredibly put off by it and the message it was trying to spread about the Florida and Arizona elections"

I'm damn proud of it. Even better was that she said my dad felt even more strongly about it than she did.

I'm related to sane people =D

(I didn't ask what specific show she was watching, but she specifically mentioned the way they were pushing opinion/editorial-type content as "news". The only person she mentioned by name was Limbaugh though, who I don't believe actually works with/appears on Fox News <_<)

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Well yes I am on multiple medications

Get them upped. Like no offense but you are so desperate for validation and acceptance that you act abnormal and say very off the wall shit.

Says the guy who thinks laws are inherently good

So you are an anarchist. Okay.
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Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Well yes I am on multiple medications

Get them upped. Like no offense but you are so desperate for validation and acceptance that you act abnormal and say very off the wall shit.

Says the guy who thinks laws are inherently good

So you are an anarchist. Okay.

"Stop putting words in my mouth." - Corrik
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Thats not even really worth a response
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https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1061321848762392578

(Trump skipped out because it was raining)
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That Trudeau clip is from 14 months ago, not today: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1061324467794862081

Though it is true that he attended an event today while Trump cancelled visiting a military cemetery.
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Thanks for the fact check. My bad on not verifying.
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Uh, if this is true, the latest Maricopa drop was really good for Sinema, I think.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1061406967686746112

As the thread says, two points:

1. McSally's argument is that the EDay dropoffs will be heavily in her favor based on an R+10 turnout advantage from people who filled ballots at the poll, but in-person Maricopa voters actually voted Sinema +2.4

2. Perhaps more immediately relevant, according to the Maricopa County Recorder, 50k votes were delayed for several days. Presumably (and this is the if here) those are from the pro-Sinema late earlies batch. Which means the ~68k Maricopa just dropped should largely be made up (Like two-thirds) of the pro-McSally batch.

...Sinema won this latest drop by 7 points.

Not a certain thing, but if that's really the case uhhhh, I'd say it's looking good.

(Meanwhile, Nate Cohn (NYT/THE NEEDLE) agrees that things look good for Sinema and says it's very hard to imagine a McSally comeback at this point with Sinema now up 1.5 points.)
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https://twitter.com/davidhogg111/status/1061268736714399746
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Russian asset Dana Rohrbacher has lost!
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1061252281423851521?s=21

Tears Update: Here are the five five times since October 1 that Trump has claimed a big, tough man approached him in tears backstage and told him "thank you for saving our country."

I think he met them all in hipster coffee shops
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https://twitter.com/charlescwcooke/status/1061307563524927489

Yep, that's over then. 538 did some analysis and if the differential is in the tens of thousands range, it effectively has a 0% chance of being overturned outside of some sort of systematic error.
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Late night Arizona updates!

Pima added 24,200 votes, of which it went +24 to Sinema (it was +14 on election night). Maricopa added 68k votes, which went +7 to Sinema (+3 on election night). Yavapai added 1k votes, which went +2 McSally (but had gone +24 to McSally on election night). Navajo added one final batch which went +30 to Sinema (+4 on election night - this is the one that had huge McSally drops earlier in the day so I do not know what is the cause of this huge swinginess but it balances out those earlier ones quite a bit). Finally, Coconino added 3.5k votes which went +30 Sinema (+27 Sinema on election night).

Outstanding votes can be found here:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061433222599327746

264k total
198k Maricopa
36.3k Pima (big for Sinema)
21.6k Pinal (big for McSally)
6.1k Coconino (big for Sinema)
less than 1k everywhere else

Sinema has a lead of 29,832. She needs to pick up 30k in the final 264k, which would be tough, but not impossible. She'd need 147k to Sinema's 117k, which is 55.7% to 44.3% or an 11.4% difference.

BUT Pima and Coconino are quite favorable to Sinema. Let us assume she holds elections there and in Pinal to the same it was on Election Day (which would be impressive for McSally considering almost all updates have been going slightly to decently in Sinema's direction compared to Election Day. But if we assume that:

McSally picks up 11902 in Pinal to Sinema's 9137 (loss of 2765)
Sinema picks up 3782 in Coconino to McSally's 2129 (gain of 1653)
Sinema picks up 20384 in Pima to McSally's 15173 (gain of 5211)

So Sinema actually stands to gain around 6323 votes from non-Maricopa areas. Lets make that an even 6k so account for the few outstanding hundreds in the other rural areas that should go to McSally in greater numbers.

Going into the final batches of Maricopa, you are looking at Sinema having (approximately) a 36k lead with 198k votes. McSally's entire argument is that all of these last Maricopa votes are late "early" votes (i.e. returned the day of) which should go in her favor greatly. I'm not going to argue the logic of that, but let us just say that is true.

Maricopa would need to go 117k to 81k to get her these numbers. She'd need 59% of the vote to Sinema's 41%.

Again, not impossible. But those are really, really daunting numbers. If one more batch comes in and she doesn't shrink the margins significantly, I'd feel comfortable with Sinema winning. ONE DAY MORE. Hopefully.
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Whoops! For some reason I was redirected to the entire thread, not that specific tweet, and thought that tweet was the most interesting of the thread so I drew attention to it.

My bad!
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If anyone else wishes to follow along, this is the guy to follow:

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer?lang=en

He is the analyst for current Arizona secretary of state Michele Reagan (a republican). Each update the counties provide:

1) Where it is from
2) How many were counted
3) How many voted for each candidate
4) How many votes remain to be counted in that county
5) A lot of the time, they'll even tell you what kind of ballots were counted! So provisional vs mail in vs early vs late early

Arizona has an amazingly run system. I can't believe how easy it has been to follow and how much information they provide at each and every step. I dunno if most states are this way and I'm just noticing Arizona because this race is so close, but they have done a phenomenal job keeping everyone up to date.
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Apparently my ideas are too unhinged for the conservatives in this topic to accept
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They're losing races they thought they won and it's putting them on edge.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

https://twitter.com/charlescwcooke/status/1061307563524927489

Yep, that's over then. 538 did some analysis and if the differential is in the tens of thousands range, it effectively has a 0% chance of being overturned outside of some sort of systematic error.

There is a very slim chance that Broward has those machine read issues which would be corrected by a hand count but that's pretty much the only way that flips
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Suprak the Stud posted...

If anyone else wishes to follow along, this is the guy to follow:

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer?lang=en

He is the analyst for current Arizona secretary of state Michele Reagan (a republican). Each update the counties provide:

1) Where it is from
2) How many were counted
3) How many voted for each candidate
4) How many votes remain to be counted in that county
5) A lot of the time, they'll even tell you what kind of ballots were counted! So provisional vs mail in vs early vs late early

Arizona has an amazingly run system. I can't believe how easy it has been to follow and how much information they provide at each and every step. I dunno if most states are this way and I'm just noticing Arizona because this race is so close, but they have done a phenomenal job keeping everyone up to date.

I think Sinema has Arizona. I mean, I don't care too much as Arizona senators don't affect me much with a majority elsewise and I am not a Arizona directly constituent. At least Sinema is absolutely hot. Dems should stick to that strategy.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Apparently my ideas are too unhinged for the conservatives in this topic to accept

To be fair that's generally their reaction to all ideas except their own
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LapisLazuli posted...

They're losing races they thought they won and it's putting them on edge.

I dont think Corrik really cares about races in Arizona and Florida beyond political game theory
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I am pissed because we invited Gillum and Nelson onto our show which could have made a difference.

Ergh.
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

If anyone else wishes to follow along, this is the guy to follow:

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer?lang=en

He is the analyst for current Arizona secretary of state Michele Reagan (a republican). Each update the counties provide:

1) Where it is from
2) How many were counted
3) How many voted for each candidate
4) How many votes remain to be counted in that county
5) A lot of the time, they'll even tell you what kind of ballots were counted! So provisional vs mail in vs early vs late early

Arizona has an amazingly run system. I can't believe how easy it has been to follow and how much information they provide at each and every step. I dunno if most states are this way and I'm just noticing Arizona because this race is so close, but they have done a phenomenal job keeping everyone up to date.

I think Sinema has Arizona. I mean, I don't care too much as Arizona senators don't affect me much with a majority elsewise and I am not a Arizona directly constituent. At least Sinema is absolutely hot. Dems should stick to that strategy.

She's likely going to be even more conservative than Manchin, so you probably won't mind her politics all that much. She voted with Trump over 62% of the time.

But yes, she is absurdly attractive. I'm glad we can reach across the aisle to agree on this crucial point.
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Corrik posted...

At least Sinema is absolutely hot. Dems should stick to that strategy.

Oh wait, I forgot, he also has to be sure to speak up whenever a political figure gives him an erection.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

But yes, she is absurdly attractive. I'm glad we can reach across the aisle to agree on this crucial point.

Oh jeez you too?
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Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

But yes, she is absurdly attractive. I'm glad we can reach across the aisle to agree on this crucial point.

Oh jeez you too?

Maybe if you could put away hating on people cuz they are R you could see it too.
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Why do you consistently feel the need to tell us who gives you a boner?

Do you think we care?
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Jakyl25 posted...

Why do you consistently feel the need to tell us who gives you a boner?

Do you think we care?

I have never at any point said who gives me a boner.

And to think a person's looks gives a person a boner speaks to a lack of normal everyday understanding.
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Struggling to think of a way to make your political opinions hold less water than talking about how hot the candidate is.

That's called a full Vlado.
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To be fair, Michigan also elected a fairly attractive governor.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Why do you consistently feel the need to tell us who gives you a boner?

Do you think we care?

Did you, at any point, hear any woman or man tell you that Beto was attractive?
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I mean I have literally written huge posts about Sinema's qualifications, and why she is great for Arizona, and how she is a uniquely talented and brilliant candidate.

So you can also choose to respond to any of those too!
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Why do you consistently feel the need to tell us who gives you a boner?

Do you think we care?

Did you, at any point, hear any woman or man tell you that Beto was attractive?

No. Should I have?
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Suprak the Stud posted...

I mean I have literally written huge posts about Sinema's qualifications, and why she is great for Arizona, and how she is a uniquely talented and brilliant candidate.

So you can also choose to respond to any of those too!

Its okay, I recognize that youre just trying to quip with him on his level
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Corrik posted...

And to think a person's looks gives a person a boner speaks to a lack of normal everyday understanding.

As a human being with a penis, this statement confuses me.

I mean, sure, thats not the ONLY THING that can give you an engorged member, but its one of the big ones.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Why do you consistently feel the need to tell us who gives you a boner?

Do you think we care?

Did you, at any point, hear any woman or man tell you that Beto was attractive?

No. Should I have?

Well, yes, it was a very common thing to come up, at least with people I talked to! Because Beto was also absurdly attractive for a politician.

https://splinternews.com/the-texas-gop-cant-stop-pointing-out-how-hot-beto-orour-1828684175
https://mashable.com/article/beto-o-rourke-is-hot-texas-gop-attack/#lk_FqSAoYaqu
https://guestofaguest.com/washington-dc/politics/candidate-crush-beto-orourke-is-the-hot-skater-senator-this-country-needs
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-beto-orourke-hot-enough-to-win-the-state-of-texas-in-the-us-midterm-elections-xbl6rmfjp
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