Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1335

(+) Yeah! (+)

Mass Effect 3 finally gets the win it was robbed of five years ago.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends
---

ME3 never deserved a win

LeonhartFour posted...

Mass Effect 3 finally gets the win it was robbed of five years ago.

getting an expanded ending after massive fan outcry over the original result is perhaps the most mass effect 3 trajectory there could be

---

xp1337 posted...

getting an expanded ending after massive fan outcry over the original result is perhaps the most mass effect 3 trajectory there could be

This makes me smile so hard it hurts.

---

You did good, son. You did good.

---

xp1337 posted...

getting an expanded ending after massive fan outcry over the original result is perhaps the most mass effect 3 trajectory there could be

https://i.imgur.com/jtvbqrF.png

---

New Vegas is starting to pick up. Looking a fair bit better than it did at the freeze.

---

Fallout rose more than 1% in like the last 15 minutes.

---

KamikazePotato posted...

New Vegas is starting to pick up. Looking a fair bit better than it did at the freeze.

So is God of War. I'm tracking that one because I need 83 to cover the spread.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

So is God of War. I'm tracking that one because I need 83 to cover the spread.

I need 87. >_>

---

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 7161 (84.33%)
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 1331 (15.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5737 (83.44%)
Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 1139 (16.56%)

Mass Effect 3 vs. Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty
Registered Vote Result:
Mass Effect 3 - 5197 (61.21%)
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 3294 (38.79%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Mass Effect 3 - 4072 (59.22%)
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - 2804 (40.78%)

Stardew Valley vs. Destiny
Registered Vote Result:
Stardew Valley - 6104 (71.89%)
Destiny - 2387 (28.11%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Stardew Valley - 4771 (69.39%)
Destiny - 2105 (30.61%)

Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs. Return of the Obra Dinn
Registered Vote Result:
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 7446 (87.69%)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 1045 (12.31%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 5924 (86.14%)
Return of the Obra Dinn - 953 (13.86%)

None of these results have large splits between registered and anonymous results, with all of them under a 3% difference. Stardew Valley has the largest split at 2.5% between registered and anonymous users. Mass Effect 3 was about 2%, Galaxy 2 around 1.5% and The Witcher 3 was slightly under 1%.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
---

Advokaiser posted...

I need 87. >_>

If it can pull some more of these 92 updates, you just might get that.

---

What does Nioh do differently from Dark Souls? Not afraid of difficulty, but I only gave the original Dark Souls a few minutes -- I didn't like the scarier setting than I expected and I hate not being able to truly pause while adjusting my menu settings..

---

It's pretty much the same iirc, except Nioh has stances which spices up the combat a bit and is pretty linear.

And from what I remember, a later patch added pausing in Nioh.

---

HaRRicH posted...

What does Nioh do differently from Dark Souls? Not afraid of difficulty, but I only gave the original Dark Souls a few minutes -- I didn't like the scarier setting than I expected and I hate not being able to truly pause while adjusting my menu settings..

combat is vastly superior.

but souls has better level design and more Playstyles. Nioh is heavily close combat driven. But i prefer nioh.

also i know i had nioh in my bracket but here are people surprised nioh is winning and im sat here thinking..only 56% against a mediocre indie game?

i guess nioh isnt as well liked but im currently 100 hours on nioh 2. Still an excellent franchise


---

Also Leon. Ive been away for a few days but i have been reading these topics

stop downplaying Xenoblade dude. Youve been doing it pre contest and irs getting embarassing

just admit this game is a beast and youve heavily underestimated it. Its vastly stronger than it was 5 years ago.

also to Allen

destiny over destiny 2? Dude. You need to do some research before seeding these games. Destiny 2 would destroy destiny 1 in a poll.

also one last thing

LOL SHITE STRANDING

lets be fair to these franchises

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

If it can pull some more of these 92 updates, you just might get that.

84 percent already and rising!

---

2 cuts and then a loss for Isaac. Comeback seems unlikely but a few more cuts could at least make it interesting

UltimaterializerX posted...

Oooh I can answer this one.

MUCH faster, no stamina bar, and waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more "things to do". There are a ton of systems and stats in it, but once you get the grasp of things it's not too bad. There is also an actual storyline (though told very badly), and people always call it the "samurai Dark Souls" when really it's a mix of Dark Souls and Diablo 2. The way loot works is why that game is so fun. You can go as far as you want.

The issue is Team Ninja made it, and those people are just indefensibly stupid. The camera problem is the worst in Nioh, too. It's bad with From Software, but TNinja didn't even try. I wrote a review about it.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps4/181161-nioh/reviews/166520

Yes, I gave it a 4/10 and love it anyway. You can still love a bad game!

nioh isnt a bad game. Its about a good level designer away from being elite

---

ShatteredElysium posted...

2 cuts and then a loss for Isaac. Comeback seems unlikely but a few more cuts could at least make it interesting

no idea how isaac is doing this well

when i look at the group of indies like stardew valley HK SK cuphead super meat boy and ori. Isaac is not even close to these games. Forgetful and mediocre

---

Nioh had top tier atmosphere, art, level design I would've put it in my top 10 all time. The Iga Escape was the only level I remember leaving an impression on me as the rest seemed like copy pasted with a different setting. Still had a blast with it--the combat was that good.

Edit: oh and much more enemy variety

---

Up to 33 points now.

---

*refreshes matches*

Ah Kratos, trying to maintain your "most garbage board vote" status.

For what it's worth, the new God of War is DAMN good.

---

This is the first contest that I have been horribly wrong about the first round.

---

LeonhartFour posted...

Mass Effect 3 finally gets the win it was robbed of five years ago.

It should've been pitted against Undertale then which was the robber.

---

God of war has even less enemy variety than nioh. and the combat also has waaaaay less options which leads to it feeling even more repetitive mechanically. over half of GoW's gameplay is probably rolling and attacking against draugr of different sizes

the world itself is incredible though, so i guess that ends up making people not notice the repetitiveness as much. Nioh's levels are very bland

Yuri_LowelI posted...

Also Leon. Ive been away for a few days but i have been reading these topics

stop downplaying Xenoblade dude. Youve been doing it pre contest and irs getting embarassing

just admit this game is a beast and youve heavily underestimated it.

No

---

Leonhart4 posted...

No

no what?

when and not if xenoblade comfortably wins the division. Just admit you underestimated it.


---

Sharinnegan posted...

God of war has even less enemy variety than nioh. and the combat also has waaaaay less options which leads to it feeling even more repetitive mechanically. over half of GoW's gameplay is probably rolling and attacking against draugr of different sizes

the world itself is incredible though, so i guess that ends up making people not notice the repetitiveness as much. Nioh's levels are very bland

theyre very different games.

nioh has absolutely 0 story narrative. So it relies heavily on gameplay. God of war is a story focused action game.


---

Sorry, Xenoblade what?

It's going to get precisely as far as the board predicted and bow out to the Fire Emblem/Ori winner. I still like my upset pick taking Overwatch over it, as I think based on Round 1 performance alone, I feel Overwatch has the edge. No way it beats GTAV

---

Xenoblade should be able to beat Fire emblem. But after that it's toast.

---

Was Binding of Isaac badly overseeded? That's a pretty embarrassing showing from a relatively well-known indie.

---

Raka_Putra posted...

Was Binding of Isaac badly overseeded? That's a pretty embarrassing showing from a relatively well-known indie.

I mean, a 7 sounds about right considering its a very beloved game at the top of its genre. Nioh might just be a bit underseeded due to being below the two Souls games and Bloodborne in terms of the genre.

Plus, the 7/10 matches have been the wonkiest of the seeding matchups across the board.

---

I think the GTAV division is every bit as contested as ME2's. Perhaps a hair weaker, but just as competitive.

---

Yuri_LowelI posted...

when and not if xenoblade comfortably wins the division. Just admit you underestimated it.

Why do we still have people here posting like it's 2005. Stats is usually the chillest place on the board.

---

Maybe it isn't as simple as "indie games are legit now" and we just have some we care for and some we care less for rather than the package deal people seem to want.

---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I think the GTAV division is every bit as contested as ME2's. Perhaps a hair weaker, but just as competitive.

I think GTAV's division is even scarier, because ME2 basically walks into the division finals uncontested, whereas the only gimmes for Division 4 is that Xenoblade and Three Houses will contend in Round 3 for the spot. Everything else in that division could go either way.

---

pjbasis posted...

Xenoblade should be able to beat Fire emblem. But after that it's toast.

not convinced it even does that!

the Splatoon 2 result is a pretty likely overperformance because there are like 2 or 3 games in the 2015 X-Stats that Xenoblade would've been projected to quadruple

even if it's stronger now I'd hesitate to take that result as evidence when we know Nintendo SFF can be very brutal
---

ctesjbuvf posted...

Maybe it isn't as simple as "indie games are legit now" and we just have some we care for and some we care less for rather than the package deal people seem to want.

I think so. Some of us (myself included) may have gotten too hung up trying to neatly place indies in one group or another, losing sight of the fact that they're such an ingrained part of today's gaming culture that they're really no different than big-budget games.

The main difference, though, is that their natural ceiling seems to be a lot lower. Clearly, indie games CAN win - even an entire contest - but they need to catch rallies to do so. Other than that, they can range from respectable midcarders to the lowliest of fodders, hardly different from most other games and franchises.

---

Yeah, that's pretty much why I stuck with Nioh in my Oracle and Spread. Different indie games are distinct entities, even here on GameFAQs. In this particular case, Metroidvanias Hollow Knight and Ori greatly overperforming didn't necessarily mean roguelite Isaac would do the same, though it admittedly gave me less confidence in Nioh than pre-contest when I expected most indies in general to flop.

Also, I personally wouldn't take any indies to be respectable midcarders, at least defining that as 25%+ on Base Link. However, that's because I'd guess the amount of games in general with that level of strength in this bracket is barely in the double digits. I could see Undertale being all the way up there if 2015 hadn't happened, but since it did, none of the results we've seen from indies so far have been up there with the titans of this bracket.

---

Eh, I meant relatively speaking. If either Hollow Knight or Cuphead can beat their super established opponents next round, I'd say those games definitely qualify as midcarders in this contest.

---

I also think we weren't crediting the indie matches to their opponents enough. Berseria sucked and people thought of Hollow Knight as a top indie game. Bastion barely beat TWD of all things, well known bottom contest game here that had every reason to be even weaker than last time, and suddenly people were scared VVVVVV would lose to Fallout 4 and DOOM was likely given more credit than it should have had. Dragon Age losing shouldn't make us scared (not more than you were to begin with of course) that BioShock Infinite can't win. They're not the same game. People are also too quick to just place Ori way above Isaac today. It's possible of course, but just as likely Nioh is just that much better than Dragon Age, or both.

The magic of having so many unknown entities with the rest having had five years to change.

---

Woke up checked the results. The ONE time I backed the indie in a debatable match I got it wrong. Of course.

---

Yeah remember how many GOTD1 results seemed to vary greatly from the games contest held just the prior year? Like the 2010 stats predicting Metroid Prime to almost double a game it lost to in '09?

---

I thought Nioh was a no brainer today. Then again i didn't think the indie games would do so well in the first place.

---