Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1361

(+) Yeah! (+)

What's the context behind the Geralt bath pic anyways?
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I think I like the second chance bracket more then the normal contest.
Guessing the % is fun

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https://i.imgur.com/91YzTES.mp4

made gif of moon for those who missed it

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if you assume 2015 Witcher 3 = 2020 Witcher 3, currently MM beats BOTW with 55.13%

which bodes well for BOTW in the bonus poll, at least indirectly
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

10 users fell off the Second Chance Top 50. Mexicola, Chansey, TheMightyPeanut, HeroicSpiderPig, Jesse_Custer, Steiner, TienLen, PunkRockGiik, Denzokuken and BigK1016 didn't quite make it to the pre-finals Top 50.

And my Chansey account only fell off because I made a mistake and picked the wrong winner. I must have moved the slider in the wrong direction and didn't realize the mistake during the bracket entry period. So that likely ends any chance of getting one of my accounts to finish on the leaderboard unless Witcher gets a successful rally to win the contest.

Without that mistake, my Chansey account would have scored a 48 on yesterday's match for a total score of 656 and a placement of either 22nd or 23rd on the Second Chance leaderboard.
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Holy shit top 5 finish lessssss goooo

I'd like to praise Geraldo in thanks, because it literally wouldn't happen without him

Speaking of whom, that fucking Henry Cavill picture actually made it in I'm speechless

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I am 1 point off the leaderboard! Might get on it if someone above me picked anything other than BoTW.... probably not happening.

I have one account on the leaderboard right now which did not pick BotW, so it would drop off if Witcher doesn't rally its way to a win today.
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AND MY GERALDO BATH PIC GOT IN?!!!

YES
YES

Fuck that prize money and the top 5 finish, my greatest accomplishment was getting a naked man onto the front page of GameFAQs

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Witcher 3 with the stall
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LeonhartFour posted...

if you assume 2015 Witcher 3 = 2020 Witcher 3, currently MM beats BOTW with 55.13%

which bodes well for BOTW in the bonus poll, at least indirectly

What happens with a constant Skyrim?
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Hbthebattle posted...

What happens with a constant Skyrim?

then Witcher 3 beats Majora's Mask

which would mean Majora is in really big trouble
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are there no rallies? that's weird

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If rallies happen they wont do so until Europe wakes up.

deeewooh posted...

are there no rallies? that's weird

Nobody cares.

I mean, I'm not sure why everyone expects the mythical CDPR rally, when they are like 0-11 in rallying in contest matches thus far.

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Because they made a comment 5 years ago showing interest. Did anyone even ask them this time? I find it hard to imagine that no one bothered.
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There's an attempted rally for the witcher on /v/. Seems like it backfired going by that thread.

They're too busy working 100 hour work weeks to encourage their fans to vote in a gamefaqs poll

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The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4880 (53.90%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4173 (46.10%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4691 (58.10%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 3383 (41.90%)

Despite both being WRPGs, Skyrim was heavily favored by registered users by slightly more than 4% over the anonymous users. Brackets can't fully explain this as Witcher had a higher prediction percentage than Skyrim in the round prior to meeting up here. At best, the main bracket contest was pretty evenly split between both games.

If the registered user bonus is used for the bonus match, then I'll be able to provide registered/anonymous user splits for the bonus matches. I have a way of calculating this even without publicly listed stats on the official stats page.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
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if someone wants to get their attention they have to use twitter. And also when theyre awake. Everyone in Poland is asleep now And most of the stafff work from home

Team Rocket Elite posted...

Because they made a comment 5 years ago showing interest. Did anyone even ask them this time? I find it hard to imagine that no one bothered.

You can always try the Discord servers, but i dont want a rally to happen, if Witcher 3 were to win, let it win from the users here, if not then it simply is not the choice of GameFaqs for game of the decade.
The only good thing that will come out from a rally is watching Zelda fans get angry about the poll result, it will be hilarious.

if BoTW does turn out to indirectly = Ocarina, how strong does that make Witcher 3 in an all games contest? would it crack the top 10?

preview of tomorrow's match:

https://i.imgur.com/Ncf4lDQ.mp4

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5 minute X-Stats:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 50.00%
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 40.66%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 36.43%
Persona 5 35.35%
Dark Souls 34.48%
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 32.24%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 32.04%
Mass Effect 2 31.67%
Resident Evil 2 30.11%
Portal 2 30.07%
Bloodborne 30.01%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age 29.78%
Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver Edition 29.28%
God of War 28.88%
The Last of Us 28.75%
Mario Kart 8 28.49%
Horizon Zero Dawn 28.43%
Super Mario Odyssey 28.41%
NieR: Automata 28.19%
Red Dead Redemption 2 27.97%
Monster Hunter: World 27.83%
Xenoblade Chronicles 26.04%
Persona 4 Golden 25.93%
Fallout: New Vegas 25.84%
Batman: Arkham City 25.75%
DOOM 25.55%
Borderlands 2 25.54%
Red Dead Redemption 25.50%
Grand Theft Auto V 25.38%
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 25.31%
Fire Emblem: Awakening 25.27%
Minecraft 25.20%
Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice 24.59%
Dark Souls III 23.79%
Animal Crossing: New Leaf 23.72%
Resident Evil 7 23.47%
Marvels Spider-Man 23.46%
Uncharted 4: A Thiefs End 23.44%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 23.44%
Bravely Default: Flying Fairy 23.40%
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds 23.17%
Stardew Valley 23.03%
Sonic Mania 22.70%
Kingdom Hearts III 22.64%
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn 22.59%
Yakuza 0 21.65%
Diablo III 21.12%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses 21.02%
Fallout 4 20.98%
Tomb Raider 20.87%
BioShock Infinite 20.69%
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 20.61%
Assassins Creed IV: Black Flag 20.46%
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch 20.38%
Cuphead 20.18%
Minecraft 19.87%
Final Fantasy XV 19.76%
Hollow Knight 19.59%
Deus Ex: Human Revolution 18.82%
Journey 18.23%
Sid Meiers Civilization V 17.83%
Bayonetta 2 17.91%
Divinity: Original Sin II 17.62%
Mass Effect 3 17.57%
Bayonetta 16.92%
Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA 16.91%
Bastion 16.73%
Rayman Legends 16.41%
Devil May Cry 5 16.30%
Celeste 16.26%
The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series 15.98%
Super Meat Boy 15.96%
Street Fighter V 15.88%
Ori and the Blind Forest 15.87%
Rocket League 15.63%
Shovel Knight 15.45%
Heavy Rain 15.35%
Octopath Traveler 15.33%
Dragon Age: Inquisition 15.27%
Halo: Reach 15.14%
Dragon Ball FighterZ 15.11%
The Outer Worlds 14.98%
Nioh 14.75%
Tales of Berseria 14.57%
Disco Elysium 14.46%
Undertale 14.33%
Dishonored 14.31%
Dead Space 2 14.11%
South Park: The Stick of Truth 14.02%
Dead Cells 13.91%
Overwatch 13.90%
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze 13.89%
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty 13.83%
Terraria 13.38%
Life is Strange 13.28%
Destiny 13.27%
Zero Escape: Virtues Last Reward 13.08%
Assassins Creed Odyssey 12.95%
Crypt of the NecroDancer 12.86%
Binding of Isaac: Rebirth 12.82%
XCOM 2 12.80%
Fate/Grand Order 12.32%
Death Stranding 12.26%
VVVVVV 11.86%
Hotline Miami 11.73%
Call of Duty: Black Ops 11.69%
Subnautica 11.66%
FTL: Faster Than Light 11.53%
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC 11.51%
Splatoon 2 11.23%
Dragons Dogma 11.00%
Tekken 7 10.97%
Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft 10.85%
Fortnite 10.84%
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective 10.77%
The Stanley Parable 10.64%
Night in the Woods 10.56%
Baba Is You 10.52%
Crusader Kings II 10.44%
Dying Light 10.41%
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 10.16%
What Remains of Edith Finch 10.02%
Slay the Spire 9.91%
The Witness 9.78%
Dota 2 9.65%
The Talos Principle 8.71%
Return of the Obra Dinn 8.17%
Mortal Kombat 11 7.97%
INSIDE 7.13%
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Not that I expect it to continue but that was a cut

Obra Dinn > MK11 let's goooooo

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fun fact: the only 1 seed not to be in the top 8 of those X-Stats is GTAV

so the seeding of this contest proves to be solid
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Leon give me Xenoblade = ME2

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Hold your horses

Witcher just CUT BOTW

i repeat Witcher just CUT BOTW

also should I be a crazy person and do GOTD1+2 X-Stats based on the bonus match
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I can't believe Mass Effect 2 is weaker than 1.

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LeonhartFour posted...

fun fact: the only 1 seed not to be in the top 8 of those X-Stats is GTAV

so the seeding of this contest proves to be solid

fun fact: GTAV sucks

LeonhartFour posted...

also should I be a crazy person and do GOTD1+2 X-Stats based on the bonus match

Y

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LeonhartFour posted...

then Witcher 3 beats Majora's Mask

which would mean Majora is in really big trouble

I feel like Skyrim must've been overadjusted in the 2015 stats. I don't think it's performed as well as it was made to be there.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I can't believe Mass Effect 2 is weaker than 1.

Because it's not.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

I feel like Skyrim must've been overadjusted in the 2015 stats. I don't think it's performed as well as it was made to be there.

It didn't perform as well because it got weaker

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Mac Arrowny posted...

I feel like Skyrim must've been overadjusted in the 2015 stats. I don't think it's performed as well as it was made to be there.

overadjusted based on what
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Witcher has taken BOTW down to 59% in the US and is winning in half a dozen states

Europe will be kind to Witcher. My 2nd chance i have BOTW 58% and im confident of it ending up that way.

LeonhartFour posted...

overadjusted based on what

Yeah, I'm not sure what its adjustment was based on either.
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LeonhartFour posted...

also should I be a crazy person and do GOTD1+2 X-Stats based on the bonus match

Sure why not.

What would BotW/MM be if Xenoblade=Golden Sun

I mean what did it overperform on to get overrated
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Geralt's finally ready to fight after applying his oils.

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Well, I guess it's safe to be among the first to recognize our true overlord.

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LeonhartFour posted...

I mean what did it overperform on to get overrated

Rally spillover in its match against Metroid Prime. I believe Skyrim was adjusted up there.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5555-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8081-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Skyrim getting weaker over time was talked about extensively pre-contest and has the benefit of being clearly documented.

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5555-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8081-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Skyrim getting weaker over time was talked about extensively pre-contest and has the benefit of being clearly documented.

Better yet is FFV creeping up on GTAV.

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LeonhartFour posted...

also should I be a crazy person and do GOTD1+2 X-Stats based on the bonus match

what do I need to happen for No Mercy to not be last place

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Dr_Football posted...

what do I need to happen for No Mercy to not be last place

I can't imagine that happens, unless Majora gets SFFed into the ground.

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Dr_Football posted...

what do I need to happen for No Mercy to not be last place

Breath of the Wild to win by less than 66.62%
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a man can dream

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