Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 336: Through the Wire

(+) Yeah! (+)

I mean a lot of Trump's supporters basically acted like he was the one thing standing between America and a leftist dystopia. They clearly wanted it more.

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For those wondering why we couldn't count the absentee ballots earlier -- blame the Republicans. Their legislatures are the ones who refused to allow counting to go ahead sooner.

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regardless of this election's outcome, we have learned today that 2016 was not a fluke

we still live in the same america that blames migrant children for being locked in cages, that marched with tiki torches chanting about blood and soil and jews at charlottesville, that voted for the mexican border wall, that resisted the civil rights movement, that held nazi rallies in 1939, and endorsed slavery

the question is- what are we going to do with that knowledge?

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Welp hes started tweeting

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=21

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Happy with the results of my state (AZ) on pretty much every issue that was realistically viable.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Yeah I think a lot of us on the left just don't get Trump's popularity. I don't know to say whether he legitimized his popularity given everything, or whether my estimate that voters panicked and chose him at the last minute in 2016 because he was not a Clinton or a woman was off.

Best I can understand is he's a figurehead more than he is a leader. Americans who voted for him voted for someone to represent their country, not to lead it.

The comey letter didn't change the 2016 election. It is liberals afraid to admit the truth that they just lost. Trump out performs polls where they matter. Simple as that. It's a base that is anti government and will tell pollsters to fuck off and come out to vote despite whether or not polls make it seem like it matters or not. I don't know if Republicans can recreate that though with a non outsider going forward tho

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i still think the flat earth documentary 'behind the curve', while not actively about trumpers, goes to show how people can get behind someone or something that's just objectively false

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Metal_DK posted...

The late at night Biden votes dont seem shady at all when you understand its 99% people who were taking precautions due to covid, something the Republican party had no plan and for large chunks of time claimed was a hoax

it looks shady when a dump goes 140,000 vs. 0. this could well be a case where that's just how it was reported as a direct result of multiple counts combined into one update but it looks funny and that's the argument. you can understand where it's coming from while also understanding that yeah, that does look sketchy.

Jakyl25 posted...

So you really think Trumps new voters are not enthusiastic for him so much as more dissatisfied with Democrats than they were in 2016?

i think people greatly underestimate the "fuck you" vote that Trump is and it's part of why the secret trump voter phenomenon exists. he had a LOT of that in 2016 as well but i'd sooner say that's the main thing he represents and is the main thing he had this race. would also explain his massive crossover appeal with Tulsi or Yang, as well as his overlap with Bernie.

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wait why were people saying "it's over"? have there been new results that decide the election?

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

wait why were people saying "it's over"? have there been new results that decide the election?

Just that Biden now has a lead in enough states to win and theres no reason to think any of them will flip back
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people are saying it's over because it's believed that mail in ballots that remain exist in a couple battlegrounds and they've largely trended as overwhelming for biden.

it's not over, no. that's a few weeks out. counting ain't done and won't be until thursday or friday in some states, writing on the wall is just that biden is favored with what remains. it's what's expected but, well, still looks funny so there's gonna be a lot of fighting over it.

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It's crazy to think that more people will have came out for Trump than Obama.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

wait why were people saying "it's over"? have there been new results that decide the election?

AZ and NE02 have been called for Biden by some outlets. Bidens up in MI and WI and the remaining ballots are expected to be in his favor. Hes up by a little in NV, and all remaining votes are mail-in/provisional.

Assuming all of that comes through for Biden (very likely but not quite guaranteed), he has exactly the 270 he needs to win. (And then hes probably the favorite in PA and GA at this point, but those are much less of a sure thing. NC is also undecided and probably will go to Trump, but Biden winning it is not implausible).

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I would be shocked if Biden doesn't win when the votes are all counted, but getting Trump to actually accept the result is a completely different matter. Embarrassing for it to be this close regardless.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

wait why were people saying "it's over"? have there been new results that decide the election?

If all current leads hold, and signs are looking that they will, Biden wins with 270 exactly

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TheRock1525 posted...

It's crazy to think that more people will have came out for Trump than Obama.

He's a cult leader who's basically a big middle finger to black people, hispanic people, the LGBT community, and women. Not that surprising.

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Sheep007 posted...

I would be shocked if Biden doesn't win when the votes are all counted, but getting Trump to actually accept the result is a completely different matter. Embarrassing for it to be this close regardless.

Thankfully he doesnt actually need to accept them; on January 20th he will no longer be president regardless of his acknowledgment of reality.

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Dancedreamer posted...

He's a cult leader who's basically a big middle finger to black people, hispanic people, the LGBT community, and women. Not that surprising.

Yet his minority vote was up across all racial demos except he lost ground with whites
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But he did better with black and hispanic people!

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Hbthebattle posted...

If all current leads hold, and signs are looking that they will, Biden wins with 270 exactly

GA and PA actually are probably more likely to go to Biden than not

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Jakyl25 posted...

Just that Biden now has a lead in enough states to win and theres no reason to think any of them will flip back

i mean, there was no reason biden would win arizona either. not one i saw before the election at least - of course, when fox called it for biden, the hindsight 20/20 "biden won because trump insulted mccain" explanations came rolling in.

i do understand being optimistic but let's not jump to conclusions when we don't have all the data yet!

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What is the current consensus on Nevada with respect to what remaining votes there are to be counted? i haven't found on anything on whether Biden or Trump is expected to win those, and there's this nagging worry in my head that Biden holds onto WI/MI/AZ but then still misses the presidency due to Nevada flipping.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Yet his minority vote was up across all racial demos except he lost ground with whites

He improved on his numbers, but they still favored Biden afaik.

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and you can't say it was just cubans either, a significant chunk of the texas border went red for the first time ever.
hispanics voted for trump, mexicans included.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i mean, there was no reason biden would win arizona either. not one i saw before the election at least

You clearly didn't follow the election in the leadup, as Biden had a decent but within MOE lead the entire race.

What's crazy to me is the Midwest is going to be a huge polling error. That along with Florida were way off on the polls, yet a lot else was generally right on.

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

i mean, there was no reason biden would win arizona either. not one i saw before the election at least - of course, when fox called it for biden, the hindsight 20/20 "biden won because trump insulted mccain" explanations came rolling in.

What? Biden was favored to win Arizona.

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Is it exactly 270? I thought he would get 271 by picking up a district in both Maine and Nebraska
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thankfully he doesnt actually need to accept them; on January 20th he will no longer be president regardless of his acknowledgment of reality.

I would LIKE to think a coup is off the table but I don't feel safe ruling that (or other shenanigans) out, especially with this being close.

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Can we just confirm or deny I had a perfect map or not. Jesus.

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pyresword posted...

What is the current consensus on Nevada with respect to what remaining votes there are to be counted? i haven't found on anything on whether Biden or Trump is expected to win those, and there's this nagging worry in my head that Biden holds onto WI/MI/AZ but then still misses the presidency due to Nevada flipping.

Its all mail in+provisional. Its late mail in I think (so probably more R leaning than regular mail in), but still.

That said, Bidens current lead is quite small, so if it does end up being R leaning somehow it could flip.

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Dancedreamer posted...

What? Biden was favored to win Arizona.

oh, i had "arizona = trump" in my head for some reason. mistake on my part. i'll admit i'm not a hardcore enthusiast about following predictions and stats.

not sure why people made such a big deal out of biden winning arizona if it was always expected, though!

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Jakyl25 posted...

Is it exactly 270? I thought he would get 271 by picking up a district in both Maine and Nebraska

ME-02 hasnt been called (and I dont think its clear who will win it)

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Mr Lasastryke posted...

oh, i had "arizona = trump" in my head for some reason. mistake on my part. i'll admit i'm not a hardcore enthusiast about following predictions and stats.

not sure why people made such a big deal out of biden winning arizona if it was always expected, though!

Because it hasnt gone blue for the Presidency in a long time
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and if you're wondering what area i mean:
Zapata County 2016 - 65/32, Hillary/Trump
Zapata County 2020 - 52/47, Trump/Biden

that is one massive swing of a Texas border.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

ME-02 hasnt been called (and I dont think its clear who will win it)

We need some ME-2 movement
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Mr Lasastryke posted...

not sure why people made such a big deal out of biden winning arizona if it was always expected, though!

Two reasons:
#1. Winning it meant he had more paths to winning
#2. He wasn't heavily favored, and he had been losing states he was slightly favored in.
Bonus: It's John McCain pissing on Trump from beyond the grave.


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Wanglicious posted...

and if you're wondering what area i mean:
Zapata County 2016 - 65/32, Hillary/Trump
Zapata County 2020 - 52/47, Trump/Biden

that is one massive swing of a Texas border.

Hmmm, seems sketchy
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NYT ticker still shows Biden winning Georgia. I'm anxious to see how it plays out.

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https://twitter.com/apark2453/status/1323994736022073350?s=21

I found out what these dumbass tweets remind me of

Its basically people coming to whine about X character losing in a contest

And more votes still works as a response!

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Also, Susan Collins somehow surviving all of this is by far the most disappointing result of the night.

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AZ was favored for Biden, but it's been red for so long it was one of the states that had to be seen to be believed situation.

However, being in AZ for the past 20 odd years, AZ has been trending blue slowly but surely, and should continue to trend blue moving forward with the influx of Hispanics and Cali transplants setting up residence in here.

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pyresword posted...

What is the current consensus on Nevada with respect to what remaining votes there are to be counted? i haven't found on anything on whether Biden or Trump is expected to win those, and there's this nagging worry in my head that Biden holds onto WI/MI/AZ but then still misses the presidency due to Nevada flipping.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323937402889515008

Ralston is like the Nevada Whisperer so I tend to trust him above all else on Nevada. He's saying (as of 5 hours ago) that there are 75k outstanding mail ballots in Clark County and those have been better than 2-to-1 Biden so far of the 337k that were already counted from there. He also says there are "tens of thousands" of provisionals in urban Nevada and some in the rural areas. He doesn't directly say anything but it sounds like he's leaning that the situation is better for Biden.

But he also went to sleep a little after this tweet and I'm not sure anything happened in Nevada since he made this tweet.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Also, Susan Collins somehow surviving all of this is by far the most disappointing result of the night.

Im hoping shes susceptible to Bidens lets work across the aisle charms
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Jakyl25 posted...

Hmmm, seems sketchy

i mean, to a fair point it does.
you could genuinely say that a lot of people from that counted mailed in the vote, so the result shown isn't what the result SHOULD be.

i get you're being pretty cheeky with it but you're right, it does look that way. republicans will tout it as a major hispanic swing, democrats will say the map is wrong everywhere because mail in ballots skewed the results. note, i don't know what the Texas rules were for mail-ins. so i don't know how much is reflected on the map. but that's 100% the argument to be made by pundits and there's some validity in there.

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TheRock1525 posted...

Also, Susan Collins somehow surviving all of this is by far the most disappointing result of the night.

Its insane how much shes outperforming Trump

Like 15 points

(15 point change in the margin, I mean, so like half that directly vs Trump)

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Jakyl25 posted...

Yet his minority vote was up across all racial demos except he lost ground with whites

These are actually the conservatives the Democrats have to win back tbqh, not the upper class Republicans

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Jakyl25 posted...

Im hoping shes susceptible to Bidens lets work across the aisle charms

It's literally the one fucking state where the presidential race and senate race weren't largely in lock-step.

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xp1337 posted...

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323937402889515008

Ralston is like the Nevada Whisperer so I tend to trust him above all else on Nevada. He's saying (as of 5 hours ago) that there are 75k outstanding mail ballots in Clark County and those have been better than 2-to-1 Biden so far of the 337k that were already counted from there. He also says there are "tens of thousands" of provisionals in urban Nevada and some in the rurals. He doesn't directly say anything but it sounds like he's leaning that the situation is better for Biden.

But he also went to sleep a little after this tweet and I'm not sure anything happened in Nevada since he made this tweet.

Last I saw Nevada was not counting again until 10am November FIFTH.

Not sure if they misspoke on that. They said they can get votes for 5 more days still or something.

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1324007806694023169?s=21

This is a fucking amazing tweet
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Wonder if Trump would have won if the census changes were instituted for this election.

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