Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 399: Teardrops on My Qatar

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kenri posted...

Outsider left for me too

Thermometer ratings:

You rated Democrats 30.

Outsider Left, on average, rated Democrats 52. The general public, on average, rated Democrats 46.

You rated Republicans 0.

Outsider Left, on average, rated Republicans 27. The general public, on average, rated Republicans 42.

not sure whether to lmao or jfc

I rated the exact same, and also wtf lmao

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

I got Progressive Left.

It was hard to answer question 14. Because while I think our prison system is completely fucked... I think that it depends on the crime. For most crimes people are spending too much time in prison. But for violent sexual crimes, and for greater financial crimes, people are spending too little time. I chose too much, because our society tends to place a higher value on the wrong sorts of crimes, while giving too much of a pass to the crimes that people serve too little time for.

I got Progressive Left. Quite the shift from where I was back in 2016. Thanks Trump!

I feel like the big difference between outsider left and progressive left is how warm you are toward the democratic party. I put 60, because I think they aren't doing nearly enough, but I also don't think they're a complete and abject failure. They're disappointing, and get a D-.

Dancedreamer posted...

I feel like the big difference between outsider left and progressive left is how warm you are toward the democratic party. I put 60, because I think they aren't doing nearly enough, but I also don't think they're a complete and abject failure. They're disappointing, and get a D-.

According to the quiz, you rated the Democrats just barely higher than the outsider left, and even higher than the general public.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

According to the quiz, you rated the Democrats just barely higher than the outsider left, and even higher than the general public.

And just barely lower than the progressive left.

Also, the progressive left is the only left-wing group to rate Republicans lower than 20. (They rated them a 10. Which is also the lowest overall rating any group gives another group, but only by 1)
The Ambivalent Right is the only right-wing group to rate Democrats higher than 20.

Establishment Liberal

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/results/?archetype=514c7637122a6ac6751ccd2de497167e

Ok then

Democratic Mainstays here.

It will surprise all of you to know that I got Establishment Liberal

Outsider left, dems at 40 reps at 0.

Outsider Left

Been lurking this topic again lately. I got Establishment Liberal.

The description doesn't really ring true, but at the same time I can still easily see it being the closest from among the options they had. They said that Establishment Liberals tend to be hopeful about both the country and the Democratic Party, and lol at that notion.

LordoftheMorons posted...

It will surprise all of you to know that I got Establishment Liberal

Who are you and what did you do with lotm

LOTM is an archetypal establishment liberal.

Outsider Left. Dems 50, GOP 0.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1600233623860281345

More charges (and guilty on them all) in the thread.

I got Establishment Liberal, which was surprising to me since I think of myself as more progressive than that. The question I had the biggest hangup on was the one on whether one of the candidates tends to align with my views. I think this is nominally true, but if you were to ask whether I think they act in accordance with their declared views, it would be a very different response.

Sceptilesolar posted...

I got Establishment Liberal, which was surprising to me since I think of myself as more progressive than that. The question I had the biggest hangup on was the one on whether one of the candidates tends to align with my views. I think this is nominally true, but if you were to ask whether I think they act in accordance with their declared views, it would be a very different response.

Yeah, I had to pause on that one too.

I said no, but I thought of it in terms of general election candidates. In the primaries there are, and they've been doing better in recent cycles, but yeah.

I got outsider left even though I put dems 80 lol

I think it's just because I answered the more radical things when asked what was closest to my views

Clearly the outsider left and I don't share a lot in common if they answered an average of 27 to how warm they feel about republicans!

I rated republicans 10, I dont have issue with some extremely liberal republicans who campaign against traditional democratic establishments.

But I am confused who is ranking republicans 30. Who is out there going Those republicans arent great but they arent that bad!

I have no real evidence for this but I have to think there's some sleight of hand going on where outsider left is being used as a catch-all for democrats both far to the left and far to the right of e.g. Biden.

Outsider Left that put Dems 60

Paratroopa1 posted...

I think it's just because I answered the more radical things when asked what was closest to my views

yeah there were certainly some questions that are just two wild extremes

also weirdly false patriotism regarding openness, where the two options are "openness is American" vs "openness is destructive"

Progressive Left, I put Dems at 60 and Republicans at 0.

Grimlyn posted...

Outsider Left that put Dems 60

yeah there were certainly some questions that are just two wild extremes

also weirdly false patriotism regarding openness, where the two options are "openness is American" vs "openness is destructive"

Yeah I'm somewhere in between "there's a candidate who represents my views" and "there's no candidate who represent my views", I picked the latter and I think that shoved me more towards outside left

Also the bit about dismantling all our systems due to racism vs fixing the racism in our systems, like, I'm somewhere in between that too but the way it asked made me go for my "idealistic" answer vs my "pragmatic" answer

Predictit has Warnock at 95%

Who would have thought the Red wave would result in D gains in the senate if this holds up.

Hmm looks like The Needle just activated and it has the race as a tossup (more towards Warnock)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html

Yeah, I gave up on betting on predict it a few years ago (Mostly because I gave up on gambling in general and it wasn't worth my time) But I thought 95 was high

Down to 89 now. Still think that's a little high but closer to what I think is fair

I would probably peg it at 80-20 right now

It's already over. Warnock has won.

Betting markets have been pretty trash when it comes to elections, AFAIK. Like my eyes basically roll out of my head when I see a lot of the odds posted. Polling, even with all its problems in recent cycles, run laps around them.

Thorn posted...

Betting markets have been pretty trash when it comes to elections, AFAIK. Like my eyes basically roll out of my head when I see a lot of the odds posted. Polling, even with all its problems in recent cycles, run laps around them.

Which doesn't make sense really

If it did someone could swoop in and make a killing

FWIW, I think Georgia had some reporting errors that showed Warnock up way more than he was. Like we briefly entered a universe where he was gonna win by like 5 points before it corrected itself and returned to "both running almost exactly even with November performance" (which favors Warnock obviously)

Paratroopa1 posted...

Yeah I'm somewhere in between "there's a candidate who represents my views" and "there's no candidate who represent my views", I picked the latter and I think that shoved me more towards outside left

Yeah I answered the same way on this one, even though I'm not really that opposed to the party. I think there's people who share good aims on individual issues but not really someone that "represents my views" as a whole

I'm reading Walker is overperforming by a point so far in rural areas

Does that mean anything? Who knows. Think its going to be close though

masterplum posted...

Which doesn't make sense really

If it did someone could swoop in and make a killing

I have zero proof here, but I always assumed those betting markets were pretty small and probably demographically tilted in who even participates and so it's both super volatile because it doesn't take much for a big swing and also very herd-y and vibes based.

But I could be completely off the mark on any or all of that. But almost any time I see odds posted from such places they're just egregiously poor.

I think the high fees also distort the betting markets

The Needle is constrained by being limited by the data fed into the model. Sentiment is overwhelmingly against Walker here.

LordoftheMorons posted...

I think the high fees also distort the betting markets

Shouldn't have high fees in foreign casinos right?

Let me see if I can pull up my old sports book account to see

EDIT: Not seeing odds for it

Wassermann saying that you can cherry-pick good signs for either side out of rural reports but it basically washes out to November's trendline and this will come down to the metro.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600293442445156352

masterplum posted...

Shouldn't have high fees in foreign casinos right?

Let me see if I can pull up my old sports book account to see

If it's a casino or sportsbook of any kind, I would expect very high fees from an investment point of view. Like on the order of wiping out a year of expected return on the S&P 500 in one trade level fees.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-warnock-walker/351668/

This looks pretty good for Warnock.

Where the hell did the dekalb votes go

Grimlyn posted...

Yeah I answered the same way on this one, even though I'm not really that opposed to the party. I think there's people who share good aims on individual issues but not really someone that "represents my views" as a whole

Yeah this is exactly where I was at too

Like, do I think Joe Biden is largely in the same universe as me politically? Yes

Does he "represent my views?" That's a really wide stretch

I don't really think anyone is even capable of representing my views seeing as being religious is de facto a requirement to hold office in the US and I am very intensely anti-religious, not to mention other political viewpoints I have that are just barely even a conversation in any mainstream american thought right now, not even with someone like Bernie Sanders (who also doesn't "represent my views" for a lot of reasons)

masterplum posted...

If it did someone could swoop in and make a killing

You probably actually can. I think betting markets on elections are extremely exploitable.

I don't bet on them because of extremely strong moral objections to betting on elections

Walker supporters blowing up and declaring themselves the winners at the 1% current lead, when almost every single high population democratic county in GA is at under 25% counted, and Warnock is slightly over performing across the state.

Stop the count people just don't learn.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Walker supporters blowing up and declaring themselves the winners at the 1% current lead, when almost every single high population democratic county in GA is at under 25% counted, and Warnock is slightly over performing across the state.

Stop the count people just don't learn.

No, I'd say they've actually learned quite well. Their whole point is to sow discord.

Warnock won by like 5%. They should call it already.

Dekalb vote count finally arrives

92-8 split lol

Paratroopa1 posted...

No, I'd say they've actually learned quite well. Their whole point is to sow discord.

Which, if true is a hilariously dumb strategy long term as it conditions your voters to not bother. It's coup or bust

masterplum posted...

Dekalb vote count finally arrives

92-8 split lol

This is still less than half of DeKalb apparently, and it hard flipped to 51-49 Warnock already just from that. There's also still half of Fulton and a good 70% of Cobb to count.

It's over.

masterplum posted...

Which, if true is a hilariously dumb strategy long term as it conditions your voters to not bother. It's coup or bust

I see you've finally arrived at the GOP's endgame strategy. They know demographics are against them, so to retain power long-term they need a coup in one form or another.

They won't call it yet for the ratings.