Board 8 > Xenoblade Chronicles 3 Mafia: 4-1 Yippee!

(+) Yeah! (+)

IGCD has been anti-teamplay

Ulti has basically a scan on him and a boatload of terrible logic today.

Ulti is the lynch unless you don't think Hb's role is true.

Lopen posted...

Why would you lynch someone that has a 50% chance of being scum to "confirm" the other guy scum when you can just... lynch scum.

Lopen posted...

Honestly I'm thinking Ulti is the safest lynch today. Why is everyone saying it's IGCD

##Unvote:
##Vote: Ulti

Also I don't like this. I never said I thought IGCD was 100% confirmed scum, and was giving opinions of priority of lynches. Lopen jumped at me for that, then turns around and is acting oblivious as to why people even think IGCD is 100% scum in the first place.
It doesn't feel like scum hunting. It feels like throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks, and see if he can get support on anything.

Lopen posted...

Ulti is the lynch unless you don't think Hb's role is true.

I think Ulti is likely scum due to PoE, but I don't think HB's scan on him is damning. Ulti is known as a power player. Him coming up multiple times in a scum chat when he could be discussed both as a recruitment action, or for night actions, is not a damning scan.

Ulti has exhibited no signs of being a power player this game and I don't think he's known as being a power player anymore than I am.

You both are known as good players, and I don't think I've ever even played with you before! Your reputation precedes you. How many mentions of Lopen would you expect to be there by Day 3 if HB had scanned you instead? A lot more because you've been active? Less because you're town?

I'll be honest, after how the previous day ended, I'm surprised this one is not over yet.

EDumey posted...

How many mentions of Lopen would you expect to be there by Day 3 if HB had scanned you instead? A lot more because you've been active? Less because you're town?

A lot

But Ulti has not been active. There is no excuse to bring him up that much

I certainly don't think I would be mentioned 22 times were I as active as Ulti

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'll be honest, after how the previous day ended, I'm surprised this one is not over yet.

Please just kill Lopen before he actually convinces suggestible people into another mislynch.

EDumey posted...

You both are known as good players, and I don't think I've ever even played with you before! Your reputation precedes you. How many mentions of Lopen would you expect to be there by Day 3 if HB had scanned you instead? A lot more because you've been active? Less because you're town?

Its null because there are barely any mislynch options left. Who even is there if the game keeps going after I flip town?

Ultimaterializer posted...

Please just kill Lopen before he actually convinces suggestible people into another mislynch.

Sorry Ulti, but I have to do my due diligence and consider all options.

I'd rather have the full 48 this day anyway. Didn't get a chance to do any thinking beyond starting at Red yesterday, and I'll be occupied this evening.

I agree that it's null. There are just too many variables of how people interact on scum chat that could change those amounts. What if someone if keeping a list of town claims and Ulti gets mentioned any time it's referenced? What if they had a small talk about Ulti's renamed vanilla role? What if they wanted to kill him but had other options so they mentioned him multiple times there? If it was like 60+ then yeah, I think I'd say "these motherfuckers are addressing him by name", but I'm not sure where you'd place that threshold. I think the only solid evidence we can pull from HB's claim is that 5tar was 100% not recruited, and like 95% not started scum.

EDumey posted...

What if someone if keeping a list of town claims and Ulti gets mentioned any time it's referenced?

...

Did he not claim D1? Whether you think it's fake or not, I'd expect that kind of info to be tracked.

I've literally never done that in a scum chat ever.

Ulti completely evading talking about my reveal is a really bad look.

I've only been scum maybe twice on this board, so maybe I don't know the usual interactions. Last time I was scum we were still using Proboards for the scum chat. I'm just saying I don't think 22 or whatever is a reasonable enough threshold.

22 is an exceedingly high number of mentions in general

You think what people are reposting a list of town reads over and over? What do you think they do in scumchat?

Like goddamn

People are going to call me bad at this game again because I'm actually trying to build cases on people and it ends up wrong again

Meanwhile like not everyone that's saying lynch IGCD or me can be scum.

I mean you all think my theories are bad but it's not "well maybe scumteam listed a name of an inactive townie 22 times because they're maintaining a list and referencing the list repeatedly"

Hbthebattle posted...

Ulti completely evading talking about my reveal is a really bad look.

What do you want me to say? The scum chat mentioned me 22 times. Okay, and? Scum always mentions me a lot, because Im a known power player, especially in a game where theyre trying to figure out if I was recruited or town power. All in-game evidence proves Im neither.

SBell almost lynching me day two while I openly said it was ok to lynch me (I was more than happy to get killed there to protect Han and Death) is the biggest point in my favor, which keeps being ignored by the geniuses trying to mislynch me. That would toe the line of a modkill for not playing to win if I was a cult member at the time. Cult members cant bus each other when recruit attempts are limited.

I think it probably goes something like, "Hey do you want to kill Ulti?"
"No I think Death is a better kill target."
"Okay let's talk about the Death option. Do you think protection still exists?"
"Oh yeah, maybe we should kill Ulti instead. Do you think he's power?"
"Well Ulti did claim D1, so..."

so and and so forth.
This is dumb. You KNOW this isn't a damning scan, Lopen. You are grasping at straws.

I mean I cant consider it impossible.
I think a name like yours would pop up a lot there if you are town.
Though I am basing that mostly on how Master Duel Mafia went.

That said I'd be lying if I thought scum would discuss a town Ulti as much as a town Lopen.

Okay lets also be fair here EDumey.
What scum kills a town Ulti at this point?

Ultimaterializer posted...

Cult members cant bus each other when recruit attempts are limited.

Yet I'm your number two suspect, curious.

Lopen posted...

22 is an exceedingly high number of mentions in general

You think what people are reposting a list of town reads over and over? What do you think they do in scumchat?

7 mentions per day is nothing in an active scum chat. I know youre atrocious at playing scum but holy shit my dude.

You have legitimately been right about nothing for this entire game. Youre either scum or the actual worst town player in the history of this forum, and given I know youre a great town player I find the latter impossible. No one as smart as you is that wrong about everything, not to mention all the other evidence. Conditional bulletproof is almost always a scum claim.

Speaking of, there were no deaths last night. Did you mention this before you claimed? The current day is all in one topic, so Ill wait.

I am actually good at this game

But I can't solve things alone. No one engages me because they've got their heads up their ass and they want to think it's bias.

The so called good players don't even try because it's ego and they'd rather not be wrong. Better to be inactive and claim you knew everyone's alignments later.

If Chang is town where the hell does he get off saying I'm bad. What has he ever done?

EDumey posted...

I think it probably goes something like, "Hey do you want to kill Ulti?"
"No I think Death is a better kill target."
"Okay let's talk about the Death option. Do you think protection still exists?"
"Oh yeah, maybe we should kill Ulti instead. Do you think he's power?"
"Well Ulti did claim D1, so..."

so and and so forth.
This is dumb. You KNOW this isn't a damning scan, Lopen. You are grasping at straws.

If Lopen actually is town then scum deserves to win for letting him sabotage tbqh

Lopen posted...

I am actually good at this game

But I can't solve things alone. No one engages me because they've got their heads up their ass and they want to think it's bias.

The so called good players don't even try because it's ego and they'd rather not be wrong. Better to be inactive and claim you knew everyone's alignments later.

If Chang is town where the hell does he get off saying I'm bad. What has he ever done?

Hey now. I am very collaborative and dropped the ego nonsense years ago. The entire reason I was so toxic for so long is because I copied Chriss town style. Getting rid of that and being nicer was good for mafia on here.

And I said youre good at the game. Thats why youre scum. Youve been so bad here that theres just no way man.

I am much better as scum than as town.

I literally never get lynched as scum

Also I think you're straining the concept of playingtowin a bit too far there as well, Ulti.
You also went quiet after my claim, so I cant feel too good about you. You did vote Corrik, so I will give you that.

I also didnt want to say it like that, but if Lopen himself says it then sure..
I also think Lopen is not necessarily better as town than as scum.

I can win as town but I need other town to help filter me

If strong town is all scum or lazy we are screwed

I'm catching up but y'all doing a lot of bickering when people have said some choice strange things that weren't followed up on.

I think I've made genuine attempts at engaging with you Lopen. Even if I disagree with a lot of the theories you've put through, I think I've responded to and at least given a reason why I disagree with them. Even after the "I don't think we should trust Lopen because Miller" scuffle we had D1, I never wrote off your opinion, and even came with (slightly different) conclusions as you with people like Plum.

For example:

changmas posted... hb is town and claims 99% 5tar is town

Why do you readily believe Hb as Town this much?

Dumey could you claim. Not an order just a request

Nobody else is claiming today jfc

Sbell on day1 did try to make a big thing about Ulti's attack on Sultan being weak.
Makes me think that at the very least Ulti wasnt cult... yet.

(I am starting to hate having to add cult mechanics into my analysis already)

That'll be my last post for a while

Go and solve Han

Lopen posted...

That'll be my last post for a while

Go and solve Han

Well I'm working on it but the person trying to out protection (that's you) looks really bad tbqh

Hb, if you're Town, then your claim is literal garbage.

If it's not an ego thing then why where you so low key early game Ulti?
Also, why is Ulti still refering to cult and scum as separate? I thought it was confirmed that Moebius was scum, SBell was Cult and Moebius. I just assumed either multiple recruiters or a night 0 recruitment to minimize the chance of a d1 scum loss if SBell got lynched.
This is why I've been looking at who used D1 to simply buy time.

SBell was always catching up.
IGCD had his fake dayvig that everyone seemed content to let it play out and see what happens.
Death likewise ended up as a lets see what happens no pressure day.
JC had his doomed claim.
Ulti and Corrik basically afk'd most of the day. Corrik I remember a little towards the end of the day at least trying to offer plum some kind of lifeline. All I remember from Ulti was his Sultan nonsense and I think it may have been SBell harping on about why he hadn't addressed it for 2 days.
Lopen had his miller counterclaim to plum.

SBell was scum.
JC was town.
Death is more than likely town.
I have a theory on Corrik but I lean town for now of those 4.

That leaves IGCD, Lopen and Ulti.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

For example:

hb is town and claims 99% 5tar is town

Why do you readily believe Hb as Town this much?

This has essentially been chang's MO this whole game. That's the real reason I had so much suspicion of him early game. He seems to just accept everything so easily.

5tarscream posted...

This has essentially been chang's MO this whole game. That's the real reason I had so much suspicion of him early game. He seems to just accept everything so easily.

Yeah but if Hb is telling the truth you're practically confirmed Scum so

Dont you mean Town?

Did you claim, 5tar? Don't claim if you haven't.

htaeD posted...

Dont you mean Town?

No? 1 mention is like, on a list and then never spoken about at all.

You know who Scum don't need to talk about recruiting? Or killing? Or mislynching?

Fellow Scum.

Lopen posted...

You always lynch Chang at lylo if you think he might be town

Dumey trying to set up Lopen -> Chang isn't sitting right with me at all. There is no rush to get "data" from me if you're sure IGCD is scum.

You are saying to leave Chang alive all the way until end game now when you claimed bulletproof and he claimed bulletproof/unkillable.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

No? 1 mention is like, on a list and then never spoken about at all.

You know who Scum don't need to talk about recruiting? Or killing? Or mislynching?

Fellow Scum.

Yeah but wont mentions of 5tar sending in an action count?

Lopen posted...

22 is an exceedingly high number of mentions in general

You think what people are reposting a list of town reads over and over? What do you think they do in scumchat?

It could mean anything. That said I don't think HB fakes that as scum so he is cult or town.