Board 8 > Star Trek Mafia - Topic 7: I am not a merry man.

(+) Yeah! (+)

I would also like to ask Dumey what question(s) he has for isquen since Dumey conceded isquens vote on sheep looked worse than mine

and yes Dumey Ill address your question later

i am going to do a whole d3 later

*d3 read

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

"if crescent scanned me as scum, she definitely would have countered me" was the intent there

Chaeix posted...

option a - but you yourself have admitted that you don't believe ulti is bp to the best of my recollection?

option b - i'm afraid i'm just not following here and will need to be walked through this

It's a theory. I didn't believe Ulti was Doctor yesterday. It's possible Scum didn't, either! Or that he just isn't. But yeah, BP Doctor is protection that is just unkillable except through lynches. It's a bit beyond the pale of OP.

HOWEVER I could be wrong, in which case it's a total possibility.

B - Last game, Peaf coasted by the entire game as Town-confirmed because he didn't vote to save himself. Death didn't vote Chris to save himself. It's possible Scum saw that and thought that he'd be Towncleared.

Or they shot Death planning to claim vig on it since it is such a bad Scum shot.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


If anybody has seen me an Lopen in a game recently and thinks I enjoyed it, then they're absolutely barmy.

But yes Ctes, I am sorry for taking it too far with the whole eyes thing, I intentionally went overboard with something that caused me to cringe heavily irl because I wanted to drive in the point.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

It's a theory. I didn't believe Ulti was Doctor yesterday. It's possible Scum didn't, either! Or that he just isn't. But yeah, BP Doctor is protection that is just unkillable except through lynches. It's a bit beyond the pale of OP.

HOWEVER I could be wrong, in which case it's a total possibility.

B - Last game, Peaf coasted by the entire game as Town-confirmed because he didn't vote to save himself. Death didn't vote Chris to save himself. It's possible Scum saw that and thought that he'd be Towncleared.

Or they shot Death planning to claim vig on it since it is such a bad Scum shot.

oh you meant death instead of ctes for option B if i'm reading this correctly? you said ctes

wallmasterz posted...

I would also like to ask Dumey what question(s) he has for isquen since Dumey conceded isquens vote on sheep looked worse than mine

"Why are you hammering a lynch when you have admitted to not being caught up and everyone suspects you?"

I already know the answer, so the question doesn't need to be asked. His answer doesn't tell me more information about how I feel about him. Your answer does.

Chaeix posted...

oh you meant death instead of ctes for option B if i'm reading this correctly? you said ctes

ah yes, lol

I've actually mixed them up multiple times while typing it so far

HanOfTheNekos posted...

ah yes, lol

I've actually mixed them up multiple times while typing it so far

okay cool.

but again, Death being the NK means ctes is scum, and if ctes and I are both scum (as you were using option B as a scenario in which I was scum), then the game has like 7 vanillas. so option B just seems unrealistic.

So really Han, my point overall, and you've kind of walked me to the exact conclusion, is that I could be scum in 2 scenarios - Option A and Option B as you've presented.

You voted me despite Option A not really making sense to you, because you didn't think Ulti was BP, and this scenario was, in your words, premised on Ulti being BP.

And you voted me despite Option B not making sense overall, because that means there's like 7 vanillas.

So I just don't understand how you actually came to a conclusion that I could have been scum, given what you were saying you believed at the time, and the game state.

Chaeix posted...

okay cool.

but again, Death being the NK means ctes is scum, and if ctes and I are both scum (as you were using option B as a scenario in which I was scum), then the game has like 7 vanillas. so option B just seems unrealistic.

Half the game being vanillas is fine balance, actually.

I haven't thought about it, but option b probably doesn't necessitate you both as Scum.

Suppose Ctes is Town and also Scum shot Death! Not very likely.

Anyway, the reason I'm engaging with these trains of thought at all in the first place is because we have claims that seems at odds with each other.

Chaeix posted...

So really Han, my point overall, and you've kind of walked me to the exact conclusion, is that I could be scum in 2 scenarios - Option A and Option B as you've presented.

You voted me despite Option A not really making sense to you, because you didn't think Ulti was BP, and this scenario was, in your words, premised on Ulti being BP.

And you voted me despite Option B not making sense overall, because that means there's like 7 vanillas.

So I just don't understand how you actually came to a conclusion that I could have been scum, given what you were saying you believed at the time, and the game state.

I voted you because I was annoyed and you said something that was also bad.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Half the game being vanillas is fine balance, actually.

but it's really not

you have scum doublevoter, redirector/bd, likely godfather, and we're assuming some kind of unblockable kill. it's probably a 4 person scum team because 3/14 seems weak to me.

does town really only have 3 power against that?

also if Ulti was BP, scum's N2 actions wouldn't make sense because they wouldn't waste their unblockable kill on not-him as they'd know he was BP.

sorry rather, if Ulti was BP and shot

Like, here's the question I have:

Who here believes that Scum has an unblockable kill AND some redirection, when so far we've had, what, Cop, BP Doc, Neighborizer, and Weak Tracker. It's weird for them to have two roles in place to counter that.

Chaeix posted...

but it's really not

you have scum doublevoter, redirector/bd, likely godfather, and we're assuming some kind of unblockable kill. it's probably a 4 person scum team because 3/14 seems weak to me.

does town really only have 3 power against that?

I can't respond to this right now because I need to watch show but yeah, your analysis makes assumptions and I think ignores other things to consider.

Chaeix posted...

also if Ulti was BP, scum's N2 actions wouldn't make sense because they wouldn't waste their unblockable kill on not-him as they'd know he was BP.

Yeah, that was what I was getting at earlier.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80377095

For use when you fine folks accumulate another 30 posts.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Who here believes that Scum has an unblockable kill AND some redirection, when so far we've had, what, Cop, BP Doc, Neighborizer, and Weak Tracker. It's weird for them to have two roles in place to counter that.

I think it's less of a stretch if the unblockable kill just replaces one NK instead of being an extra kill?

I think the likeliest explanation is scum does not have an unblockable kill because why in the world would they not use it on bulletproof doctor.

wallmasterz posted...

I think the likeliest explanation is scum does not have an unblockable kill because why in the world would they not use it on bulletproof doctor.

so uh your vote should be on ulti then?

wallmasterz posted...

I think the likeliest explanation is scum does not have an unblockable kill because why in the world would they not use it on bulletproof doctor.

In that case they probably don't believe that he is in fact bulletproof doctor.

wallmasterz posted...

I think the likeliest explanation is scum does not have an unblockable kill because why in the world would they not use it on bulletproof doctor.

So I didn't believe Ulti, and I would guess Scum didn't either.

I thought Ulti was faking Doctor to cover for Crescent. But even if you believe he is Doctor and do something to make sure to kill Crescent (like an unblockable), it's still not super likely to believe Ulti is BP. Unless they tested him N1... which, again, is very possible.

Chaeix posted...

but it's really not

you have scum doublevoter, redirector/bd, likely godfather, and we're assuming some kind of unblockable kill. it's probably a 4 person scum team because 3/14 seems weak to me.

does town really only have 3 power against that?

So, first of all, does town really only have 3 power against scum doublevoter, redirector/bd, likely godfather, and some kind of unblockable?

Only 1 of those confirmed, with 2 being likely, and 3 being a stretch.

A vig can go either direction, but if Vig is Town, then with 4 Scum with Chris's ability...

14
11
9

Means game can end for Scum at end of N2.

I think 3 Scum is more sensible... in which case, yeah, more strength would be there.

without extra kills...

3/14 is 4 mislynches to win, 3 scum to kill
4/14 is 3 mislynches to win, 4 scum to kill

Vig is, by numbers, more likely to kill Town. And Chris's role gives Scum a mechanic that takes care of being down in numbers more.

3 Scum is more likely, which does make Vig + Cop + Motion Detector + BP Doc + Neighborizer... well, a lot. 6 vanillas for that might not be enough vanillas.

wait whats the 6th death there for an N2 scum win scenario?

2 NKs
2 lynches
1 vig misfire

Unless youre assuming ctes has more than one shot? I dont think anyone asked him how many shots he had but I assumed one. I just didnt want to ask and then have ctes maybe reveal he wasnt a live threat to scum.

Chaeix posted...

wait whats the 6th death there for an N2 scum win scenario?

2 NKs
2 lynches
1 vig misfire

Unless youre assuming ctes has more than one shot? I dont think anyone asked him how many shots he had but I assumed one. I just didnt want to ask and then have ctes maybe reveal he wasnt a live threat to scum.

*squints*

If Chris hammers D2 then Scum, with 4, would have 5 votes in 9 remaining.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

*squints*

If Chris hammers D2 then Scum, with 4, would have 5 votes in 9 remaining.

Hm yeah that makes sense.

I think your reaction there is really genuine.

I'm also willing to bet I was overthinking with regards to Crescent's posts. Her scanning you is likeliest answer and she just wanted to disguise that she was Cop.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Thank you for acknowledging this.

And yeah, the start of Daylight Savings always messes me up. I myself have taken a breather. I'm still gonna have to replace out if I survive N3 though since I can't very well play Mafia while mobile on vacation (I don't think anyone could when both apply).

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

I presume you speak from experience.

If there's a redirector, it is not someone town-aligned.

Also, Han is talking sense about the possibility for only two more scum. That... changes things. Unfortunately I don't have time to re-read anything so IDK... I apologize for being useless right now.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I was overthinking

Pretty sure we're all guilty of this at one point or another.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

So I didn't believe Ulti, and I would guess Scum didn't either.

I thought Ulti was faking Doctor to cover for Crescent. But even if you believe he is Doctor and do something to make sure to kill Crescent (like an unblockable), it's still not super likely to believe Ulti is BP. Unless they tested him N1... which, again, is very possible.

i blame dst and lack of sleep but Im sorry I dont get this. If they tested ultis bp claim n1 he would either be dead if he was bluffing or a prime unblockable kill target if telling the truth about being bp, no? Why would they test him, hes bp and then they dont use unblockable on him?

wallmasterz posted...

i blame dst and lack of sleep but Im sorry I dont get this. If they tested ultis bp claim n1 he would either be dead if he was bluffing or a prime unblockable kill target if telling the truth about being bp, no? Why would they test him, hes bp and then they dont use unblockable on him?

Right.

It would mean they don't believe Ulti is Doctor, or they just think he's mislynch worthy. Which doesn't really play out too smartly.

I don't think this is a particularly easy thing to consider which is why I'm flipping back and forth on it and getting mixed up.

I would rather operate under 4 scum to be safe. There are a bit many ifs presented here, which includes Chris needing to hammer the day 2 lynch and protection never working.

Also Han you said there was a reason none of Ulti, Lea and Crescent entertained you, but Ulti said a few times you were the one person on the Chris lynch he could see being scum.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Also Han you said there was a reason none of Ulti, Lea and Crescent entertained you, but Ulti said a few times you were the one person on the Chris lynch he could see being scum.

I overestimate Ulti.

Also, Ulti does fit into a path where he is Scum, but yeah, not having any protection for Town is weird.

There's nothing wrong with operating as if there can be 4 Scum, but in terms of set-up, it's just more unlikely.

Let me just plot this out a few ways..

Both telling the truth...

Ulti wasn't RB'd or whatever, so an unblockable was used on Lea (I agree that it would be an enhancement to a kill, and not an extra).
JC was redirected from BCT to Ulti.

Bus Driver literally doesn't make sense with this - an unblockable would be saved for Ulti, full-stop. Even if Scum doesn't believe him, they could just BD BCT/Crescent.
Redirector would be the correct call, where Scum is making sure JC targets a target of their choice... which would be Ulti?... But why Ulti?

This version of reality leaves a question.

I feel a little hit stock here. I think most people look "fine".

I'm having a hard time reading Isquen. I think I've been pretty good at that actually after being wrong about him the first time we played together, but there's very little to judge by.

I still think the bus drive makes the most sense from a town perspective.

Ulti telling the truth only...

Anything JC has said means nothing in this instance. Scum did indeed shoot Crescent N1, or Ulti is BP and they shot him (this is ignoring big brain Vig Death as Ctes plays).

This means Scum either has an unblockable on Crescent, or they have a driver/redirect that was used on Ulti. JC would be claiming to have been redirected himself to hide that possibility, in order to drum up suspicion on Ulti? But it'd be weird that he's not pushing him. They wouldn't want to give a worthy scan out... but why confirm Ulti acted, again? I guess it serves framing purposes, because it gets rid of any thought that Ulti could be lying about Doctor.

They could befuddle Ulti as they wish and use a supposed inability for him to know if his target changed to keep him "blocked" while letting JC survive on "RB" status.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I still think the bus drive makes the most sense from a town perspective.

Can you restate this in a way that's not as vague in meaning?

Ulti is uncountered protection, most likely to draw a shot. Bus drive would then save him.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Ulti is uncountered protection, most likely to draw a shot. Bus drive would then save him.

idk why a town bus driver would believe a town doc also existed though?

like that seems like a lot of protection, Im pretty in the this seems impossible camp

The reason Sultan made my town list is that I don't think scum Sultan votes Sheep believing you had a cop scan on him after you had already said you did not have a cop scan on Sheep. What do you make of that read?

JC telling the truth only...

First means no protection (unless Sultan is protection and just existing with a smile on). This says weird things about Ctes, perhaps? no protection means that the game should always have a kill every night. Which means that it could be the following...

It's a big brain play designed to make Ulti look real, using Ctes as fake vig and claiming that Scum didn't get a kill in N1. BP explains why Ulti never dies, and the claimed save on N1 confirms Ctes as Town. Coast to the end.

Or it was a No Kill by choice and Ctes is innocent. (this is hard to believe).

I feel this possibility of JC telling the truth and Ulti being Scum is rather narrow, and honestly, doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I fully believe trying to look at Ulti/JC is the wrong approach here.

ctesjbuvf posted...

The reason Sultan made my town list is that I don't think scum Sultan votes Sheep believing you had a cop scan on him after you had already said you did not have a cop scan on Sheep. What do you make of that read?

I mean, I think Sultan is Town anyway. He could fake believing a Cop non-claim, but really, it's totally within Town Sultan's playbook to miss things when he has a bunch of posts to keep up with.

Question - do you believe that there IS a Town Bus Driver?