Board 8 > Which Trump indictment is most likely to stick?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hopefully it's all of them.

1/6. I mean, they should all stick but you could argue that the judge in the Stolen Document case could tilt things with pre-trial decisions based on their history of already issuing bizarre motions in favor of Trump that had to be swatted down by the full Circuit and that fuckery could happen in GA since they passed a law earlier this year that lets the governor's appointees fire prosecutors (including the ones investigating that case) at will. Meanwhile 1/6 has a tough but fair judge and is held in DC where the chances of a holdout sneaking onto the jury to hang the trial on purpose is lowest.

Jan 6. I mean, you can see video footage if him doing what he is accused of along with countless other pieces of evidence which are well documented. It is as open and shut as it could possibly be.

Yeah I would say documents if it wasn't for the judge (most open/shut case legally from what I understand) though he's obviously guilty of them all. Voted 1/6.

Unfortunately, probably none

It's hard to feel optimistic about any of it.

January 6th Interference is the only one that I know what it's referring to

We can't just start arresting presidents. Think of the precedent that would set.

MZero posted...

January 6th Interference is the only one that I know what it's referring to

Very brief summary of each:

Stormy Daniels Hush Money - NY State Case regarding how Trump illegally hid the payments he made to Stormy Daniels (a porn star) during his 2016 campaign. Generally speaking, I'd consider this the weakest case by far in terms of the severity of the crime - that's not to say it shouldn't be pursued (it should) nor that it isn't pretty damn clear cut (it is).

Stolen Documents - Federal Case. After January 6 when Trump seemingly accepted he wasn't going to be able to remain in the White House, he just straight up took a bunch of classified information, national security info, nuclear weapons related material, etc. with him to Mar-a-Lago and his golf clubs. You're uh... you're not allowed to just fucking steal top secret information. He maintains they're "his" but they absolutely fucking aren't. They belong to the Office of the President. Nevertheless, the National Archives which was in charge of collecting all this stuff, tried to handle this without causing a fuss and spent months negotiating with him and his lawyers to just please give us this shit back. After refusing to for a long time, he claimed he turned over what he had, but the Archives basically knows what they should have and knew he was lying so it eventually escalated to a search warrant being issued and executed by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago where they found boxes and boxes of this shit all over the place and clearly not stored securely (literally just piles of it in a MAL bathroom in one instance.) Also covers the knowing conspiracy between Trump and Mar-a-Lago staff to hide this stuff from National Archives and not turn it over when asked.

January 6 - Federal Case. kinda goes without saying but includes the plots leading up to it to have illegal false electors from multiple states "ready" to usurp the election and hand it to him during the certification. As well as how even after the insurrection his team was still trying to get them to delay their constitutional duty of certifying the election, using the insurrection itself as an excuse.

GA Election Interference - GA State Case. Related to the above, but this is being conducted by the state of Georgia and not the feds. Specifically relates to his efforts to interfere and overturn the election in Georgia. Includes his phone call to the GA Secretary of State (in charge of overseeing elections) asking him to "just find 11,000 votes" (he used the exact margin of defeat he suffered to Biden which I don't recall offhand but it's about there.) Also recent reporting says GA has obtained texts and emails showing Trump's legal team was behind an incident in early January 2021 where unauthorized individuals got access to the actual voting machines in a Georgia county.

Federal Case (Documents and 1/6) v State Cases (NY and GA) is significant in that federal charges can be pardoned by a president (and if still ongoing can basically be killed by a President) and Trump's legal strategy has been blatantly and unashamedly been to delay the cases and hope to get re-elected in 2024 to take over the Department of Justice and kill these cases - or if they concluded to pardon himself. POTUS can not pardon state criminal charges. In NY that power rests only with the Governor of New York. In Georgia that power has instead been delegated to a Board of Pardons and Paroles.

Johnbobb posted...

Unfortunately, probably none

This. Came in to vote "none of the above" because The Don has ways of weaseling his way out of this kind of thing. He always has.

pjbasis posted...

We can't just start arresting presidents. Think of the precedent that would set.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/5/7/8/AACm-yAAEwGK.jpg

Thorn posted...

Very brief summary of each:

Stormy Daniels Hush Money - NY State Case regarding how Trump illegally hid the payments he made to Stormy Daniels (a porn star) during his 2016 campaign. Generally speaking, I'd consider this the weakest case by far in terms of the severity of the crime - that's not to say it shouldn't be pursued (it should) nor that it isn't pretty damn clear cut (it is).

Stolen Documents - Federal Case. After January 6 when Trump seemingly accepted he wasn't going to be able to remain in the White House, he just straight up took a bunch of classified information, national security info, nuclear weapons related material, etc. with him to Mar-a-Lago and his golf clubs. You're uh... you're not allowed to just fucking steal top secret information. He maintains they're "his" but they absolutely fucking aren't. They belong to the Office of the President. Nevertheless, the National Archives which was in charges of collecting all this stuff, tried to handle this without causing a fuss and spent months negotiating with him and his lawyers to just please give us this shit back. After refusing to for a long time, he claimed he turned over what he had, but the Archives basically knows what they should have and knew he was lying so it eventually escalated to a search warrant being issued and executed by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago where they found boxes and boxes of this shit all over the place and clearly not stored securely (literally just piles of it in a MAL bathroom in one instance.) Also covers the knowing conspiracy between Trump and Mar-a-Lago staff to hide this stuff from National Archives and not turn it over when asked.

January 6 - Federal Case. kinda goes without saying but includes the plots leading up to it to have illegal false electors from multiple states "ready" to usurp the election and hand it to him during the certification. As well as how even after the insurrection his team was still trying to get them to delay their constitutional duty of certifying the election, using the insurrection itself as an excuse.

GA Election Interference - GA State Case. Related to the above, but this is being conducted by the state of Georgia and not the feds. Specifically relates to his efforts to interfere and overturn the election in Georgia. Includes his phone call to the GA Secretary of State (in charge of overseeing elections) asking him to "just find 11,000 votes" (he used the exact margin of defeat he suffered to Biden which I don't recall offhand but it's about there.) Also recent reporting says GA has obtained texts and emails showing Trump's legal team was behind an incident in early January 2021 where unauthorized individuals got access to the actual voting machines in a Georgia county.

Federal Case (Documents and 1/6) v State Cases (NY and GA) is significant in that federal charges can be pardoned by a president (and if still ongoing can basically be killed by a President) and Trump's legal strategy has been blatantly and unashamedly been to delay the cases and hope to get re-elected in 2024 to take over the Department of Justice and kill these cases - or if they concluded to pardon himself. POTUS can not pardon state criminal charges. In NY that power rests only with the Governor of New York. In Georgia that power has instead been delegated to a Board of Pardons and Paroles.

Thanks! I hadn't heard of any of the other ones, but I don't follow US politics that closely. What a mess

Last I heard, Trump is still the leading Rep. candidate. What in the actual fuck is wrong with this country

Hush money will likely stick but not result in actual jail time. Stolen docs has a rocky road to sticking given what we've already seen from the judge, but the case is so straightforward I'd almost be interested to see how she'd manage to scuttle it.

With those out of the way, both Jan. 6 and Georgia are looking very damning. Prison time seems extremely likely for both, which is doubly fun since one is state and the other federal.

barreldragon88 posted...

Last I heard, Trump is still the leading Rep. candidate. What in the actual fuck is wrong with this country

Some people want to "stick it" to the system and vote for the most disruptive person. But, really, it's just that ppl r dum.

That said, Trump did do a few good things (i.e. negotiating the Afghanistan withdrawal before the Taliban betrayed him and disrupting key partisan institutions in Washington), and much like his most vehement critics refuse to see those, some ppl (the dum 1s) refuse to see how much of an idiot and a pig he is.

I'll probably vote against him in the primary. (I live in Wisconsin, where you don't register for a party. Everyone gets the same two-sided ballot and you can only fill out one side.)

Xiahou_Shake posted...

but the case is so straightforward I'd almost be interested to see how she'd manage to scuttle it.

My money is waiting for him to win the republican nomination and then claiming the trial has to be after the election.

Given that not only were the results disastrous but the Afghan government wasnt even included in the negotiations, that is definitely not a good thing, although Biden also deserves criticism for implementing it despite knowing what would happen. The principle of negotiating withdrawal is a good one and the west never should have gone in in the first place, but it was handled extremely badly from all sides.

LightningStrikes posted...

Given that not only were the results disastrous but the Afghan government wasnt even included in the negotiations, that is definitely not a good thing, although Biden also deserves criticism for implementing it despite knowing what would happen.

If Trump had been re-elected, the Taliban wouldn't try that. Biden is weak and they know it. Trump actually ordered a bomb dropped on them when they first thought to violate it.

The principle of negotiating withdrawal is a good one and the west never should have gone in in the first place, but it was handled extremely badly from all sides.

Oh, you're a terrorist sympathizer. Not worth my time.

Invading Afghanistan and was never going to work (it didnt) to terrorist sympathiser is quite the leap.

Its like its really 2003! I hope Link beats Cloud.

We got Osama though. Forced him into Pakistan, found where he was (admittedly way later than we should've), and killed the bastard.

The good news? The world is safer now without him.

Maybe you're confusing Afghanistan and Iraq? Because Iraq was a mistake, that I won't argue with.

Xiahou_Shake posted...

Prison time seems extremely likely for both, which is doubly fun since one is state and the other federal.

What happens in a theoretical case where both happen?

Obviously there was a more apparent motive for the invasion than Iraq, but to put it in perspective, the US and UK invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, Bin Laden fled Afghanistan in 2001, and the coalition withdrew in August 2021. Not exactly a picture of efficiency, given that fighting continued for 20 years after the guy fled. Given the knock-on effects that not only led to all the deaths in the war, the Talibans current rule and a rise in global terrorism, I have a hard time believing that the world became safer than it would have been if an alternative method of containment had been used. Im not saying do nothing. Im saying the end result shows it failed. There are more global terrorism deaths now than there were pre-2001, the war on terror was a complete failure.

Anyway, Trump didnt include the Afghan government which collapsed local confidence and immediately lowered air support allowing the Taliban to make gains. He also made a deal with intelligence telling him what would happen. This is the thing, once the US and UK were in they couldnt just get out. Thats why it was a forever war.

LightningStrikes posted...

although Biden also deserves criticism for implementing it despite knowing what would happen

Not to suggest Biden's hands were completely tied here but it was the agreement made by the US government. Just revoking agreements like that because of an administration change leads to a drop in trust internationally that the US will keep to its word - like when Trump stupidly pulled out of the Iran deal despite his own government certifying that Iran was in compliance leading to the entire deal blowing up and things being worse off.

There's a stronger case here for Biden to have reversed the decision because of the fact that Trump excluded the actual Afghan government from the negotiations here but I feel like things were in a place where if Biden didn't actually allow the withdrawal to happen, it basically never would. I'm not even convinced Trump would have followed through on his own deal.

Despite all his talk, he had actually been increasing the number of troops there compared to the end of Obama's term. When he talked of having reduced troops, it was from the highs he made and were still above end of term Obama for the majority of his term. It was only after Trump lost the election that they started making heavy cuts and I'm pretty sure reporting has it specifically because he was making a problem for Biden to deal with in doing it so haphazardly. Biden put a small delay in executing it, probably to try and address that, but I'm fairly certain the collapse of government there was bound to happen however a withdrawal happened. The Taliban ramped up their attacks against the Afghan government basically the minute the deal was signed by Trump (and under his admin obviously.) It didn't simply start under Biden or anything, it was back in Spring/Summer 2020.

The January 6th one is the one where I feel he is the most guilty in a moral sense. Although, in some sense it may be less open and shut than the documents case.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Some people want to "stick it" to the system and vote for the most disruptive person. But, really, it's just that ppl r dum.

That said, Trump did do a few good things (i.e. negotiating the Afghanistan withdrawal before the Taliban betrayed him and disrupting key partisan institutions in Washington), and much like his most vehement critics refuse to see those, some ppl (the dum 1s) refuse to see how much of an idiot and a pig he is.

I'll probably vote against him in the primary. (I live in Wisconsin, where you don't register for a party. Everyone gets the same two-sided ballot and you can only fill out one side.)

BlueCrystalTear posted...

If Trump had been re-elected, the Taliban wouldn't try that. Biden is weak and they know it. Trump actually ordered a bomb dropped on them when they first thought to violate it.

Oh, you're a terrorist sympathizer. Not worth my time.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

We got Osama though. Forced him into Pakistan, found where he was (admittedly way later than we should've), and killed the bastard.

The good news? The world is safer now without him.

Maybe you're confusing Afghanistan and Iraq? Because Iraq was a mistake, that I won't argue with.

incredible 1-2-3 punch of the worst takes on the fucking planet

barreldragon88 posted...

Last I heard, Trump is still the leading Rep. candidate. What in the actual fuck is wrong with this country

I'm not a huge follower of politics, and mostly get my information from my Google feed or Twitter, so take my comments here with a grain of salt.

In regards to Trump, there's a little bit of a cult mentality, for sure. I have literally no clue why he's so popular.

I think maybe the issue is that most of his GOP contenders have a few stigmas about them that voters want to avoid.

DeSantis comes off a bit homophobic and an extreme bigot.

Pence is seen as a traitor to his party.

Chris Christie is seen as a joke.

Personally, I don't really want another 4 years of Biden. But I'm absolutely not voting for Trump or DeSantis. If Pence or Christie got the nod, I might consider them, but their odds are extremely low, so more than likely I'll be voting Biden again.

BakusaiTenketsu posted...

bit homophobic and an extreme bigot.

BakusaiTenketsu posted...

a traitor to his party.

BakusaiTenketsu posted...

a joke.

Sounds like 45 to me.

1/6 was the worse offence, but my money is still on the Documents case being the one that breaks through because even a pre-schooler could follow the logic and realize he doesn't have any wiggle room to have not realized what he was doing was hugely illegal.

Unfortunately it's going to be decided by a Florida jury and is being lead by a judge who will probably delay delay delay, which is why 1/6 still might make the bigger impact pre-election.

Thorn posted...

Not to suggest Biden's hands were completely tied here but it was the agreement made by the US government. Just revoking agreements like that because of an administration change leads to a drop in trust internationally that the US will keep to its word - like when Trump stupidly pulled out of the Iran deal despite his own government certifying that Iran was in compliance leading to the entire deal blowing up and things being worse off.

There's a stronger case here for Biden to have reversed the decision because of the fact that Trump excluded the actual Afghan government from the negotiations here but I feel like things were in a place where if Biden didn't actually allow the withdrawal to happen, it basically never would. I'm not even convinced Trump would have followed through on his own deal.

Despite all his talk, he had actually been increasing the number of troops there compared to the end of Obama's term. When he talked of having reduced troops, it was from the highs he made and were still above end of term Obama for the majority of his term. It was only after Trump lost the election that they started making heavy cuts and I'm pretty sure reporting has it specifically because he was making a problem for Biden to deal with in doing it so haphazardly. Biden put a small delay in executing it, probably to try and address that, but I'm fairly certain the collapse of government there was bound to happen however a withdrawal happened. The Taliban ramped up their attacks against the Afghan government basically the minute the deal was signed by Trump (and under his admin obviously.) It didn't simply start under Biden or anything, it was back in Spring/Summer 2020.

Oh yeah, to be clear Trump absolutely deserves the majority of the blame though Biden is still partially culpable. I did think about pointing out that Trumps actions after losing but before Biden became president appeared to be setting a trap for Biden (and getting a lot of Afghans killed in the process) but Trump is so erratic Im not sure what he was thinking.

And yeah glad to see some agreement that not including the government of a country in negotiations that determine the fate of that country is a bad move! The reality is Trump just wanted to say he did it so he gave the Taliban everything. It was bad negotiating in order to just say they reached an agreement.

BakusaiTenketsu posted...

Personally, I don't really want another 4 years of Biden. But I'm absolutely not voting for Trump or DeSantis. If Pence or Christie got the nod, I might consider them, but their odds are extremely low, so more than likely I'll be voting Biden again.

If Desantis is off the table for you, then Pence should be absolutely nowhere near your lips as a possible candidate.

Hopefully all of them. If 1/6 doesnt stick or any of the others America is fucking doomed because it shows the law is a joke and anyone can just run for President and then make themselves the new King or Dictator without any consequences

I mean, these could ALL stick, he could go to prison, win the primary from prison, win the fucking election, and pardon himself. There's still the state charges but by that point...fuck, I don't even know what would happen.

None of them will stick, but I think the stolen documents one stands the best chance. But he's rich and powerful, and will 'learn his lesson' by being told "You maybe shouldn't have done that." in the softest terms possible. It's not like he did something serious like have an ounce of weed or knock on the wrong door late at night. Oh wait, sorry. Those are only rules for poor people.

barreldragon88 posted...

Last I heard, Trump is still the leading Rep. candidate. What in the actual fuck is wrong with this country

A lot of Republicans believe all these charges are fake and part of a conspiracy to prevent Trump from becoming president in 2024.

Seanchan posted...

I mean, these could ALL stick, he could go to prison, win the primary from prison, win the fucking election, and pardon himself. There's still the state charges but by that point...fuck, I don't even know what would happen.

I would hope that, if this does happen, there's an immediate amendment pushed to prevent a President from pardoning himself. That violates the checks and balances created so the Judicial branch could prevent a President from being a dictator. But since there are several Trump friends on SCOTUS, they won't allow that.

Our country is broken. George Washington was right: Partisanship would destroy democracy.

Well, if we're defining "stick" as in "go to prison" then I agree the chances are significantly higher he evades that because we have a two-tiered justice system. But I answered the question as "will he be convicted"

Would not be shocked in the least if somehow the justice system bends over backwards to keep him out of prison even if found guilty.

Georgia's the most likely. There's precedent for letting people get away with stealing documents (Sandy Berger), January 6 is seriously overblown (it was a riot, this should be over), and Stormy Daniels has a lot of grey area. The Georgia thing sounds a lot more serious and harder to explain away.

If the left really wanted to be rid of Trump, they wouldn't give him so much airtime. There are other people trying to run, maybe start talking them up. The Iowa State Fair coverage was just embarrassing.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

I would hope that, if this does happen, there's an immediate amendment pushed to prevent a President from pardoning himself.

I know you're not being super serious about it, but there's a 0% chance ANY constitutional amendment gets passed in this country's partisan environment. Has to pass a 2/3rds vote from both the Senate and House and then be passed by 3/4ths of State legislatures. It could be the "All dogs are good boys" amendment and Rs would shut it down if the Ds put it up.

Uglyface2 posted...

January 6 is seriously overblown (it was a riot, this should be over),

You. obviously have just not educated yourself on what Jan 6 was really about if this is your takeaway. Especially since you take the Georgia case seriously. So you should consider fixing that.

Yeah, just a totally normal riot by an orange cult leaders rabid mob of brainwashed idiots who wanted to hang members of the government and keep their equally low IQ President in power when he lost the election. Totally normal stuff to not consider a big deal. Its the same as rioting over a sports match for sure. Its sad about half the country actually believes that and shows just how fucking truly stupid and hopeless they really are of being brought back to reality

barreldragon88 posted...

Last I heard, Trump is still the leading Rep. candidate. What in the actual fuck is wrong with this country

About 35% of the country votes R, so it's not like he has 50%+. Also, R voters are very good at rallying behind the chosen candidate. All Trump needs is a solid 10% of the population on his side, and he can dominate the R playing field since the rest of the 35% will just go along with whoever is in 1st place.

It's essentially a microcosm of the US itself, where 70% of the population watches for a 30% chunk to make their decision for them.

LightningStrikes posted...

Oh yeah, to be clear Trump absolutely deserves the majority of the blame though Biden is still partially culpable.

This is the dumbest centrist idea ever. Every president since Bush has come up with a plan to get out of Afghanistan after throwing away the previous guy's plan. They all failed because the political cost was too high or things took too long or whatever. If Biden did the same there would still be a war today and 4 years from now. But he's the only one who realized he could just order it to happen, and take on the political cost. Maybe we needed someone whose ego has withered away with age, who knows shame can't hurt his already decrepit human form, I don't know. But it was the greatest single thing any president has done in my lifetime. If you can have "blame" for something great then Biden deserves it all.

Ive been called both a terrorist sympathiser and a centrist in this thread, quite the day!

I mean, many people died, 1.6 million people were driven from the country with more internally displaced, millions lost their rights and now six million are near famine as a result of that decision. That doesnt sound that great!

Edit: Especially since the terror-loving commie/warmongering neolib (delete as appropriate) comments were this failed war that killed many and didnt achieve its objectives was an error and the guy who signed off on a damage holds partial responsibility for it lol.

I'm not saying you're a centrist, but the "both are culpable" idea is quintessential centrism. Don't say centrist things if you don't want to be perceived centrist.

And yeah the Afghanistan occupation was absolutely terrible. Minimizing the terror like Biden did was great. Trump, Obama, Bush had complete power and opportunity to minimize the damage and chose not to. They and the Taliban together caused today's damage.

Is centrism really an insult though, lol?

Attributing today's terror to Biden's withdrawal is implicitly saying that war and occupation was actually not that bad. I mean, there were 1.6m fewer deaths, millions fewer hungry. Sounds pretty great. Also centrist af.

BakusaiTenketsu posted...

Is centrism really an insult though, lol?

From me, yes, but that's just my opinion. There are plenty of proud centrists. There's even more embarrassed centrists though.