Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 407: Lauren Boebert's Handiwork

(+) Yeah! (+)

I know they were tossing around ending the Gaetz rule of 1 person being able to call for removing the Speaker, is that baked in at this point or are they still stuck with that no matter who they eventually go with?

andel posted...

i think dems would definitely take him over most, the problem is he wouldn't accept democrat votes because it would be career suicide. emmer isn't even a moderate, he is just one of the closest things the house gop has to one.

Sounds like the strategy would be Dems sitting out the vote to lower the threshhold needed to win.

That way the person doesn't have Dems voting for them but would be able to get enough votes.

Several R reps were saying that they wouldnt vote for Emmer specifically because he voted in favor of codifying gay marriage

Maniac64 posted...

Sounds like the strategy would be Dems sitting out the vote to lower the threshhold needed to win.

That way the person doesn't have Dems voting for them but would be able to get enough votes.

that seems like a better play honestly but emmer was already being attacked by trump and other cultists as soon as he became the favorite to be the 'designee', which isn't even a real thing. seems like the cult wing will blatantly attack anyone who isn't a blatant election denier and anyone interested in governing. i am hoping eventually the wing that is interested in governing and funding ukraine and keeping the government open eventually decides to enlist democrats to vote present instead of buckling to a maga extremist, but their history suggests the opposite so i guess we will wait and see.

the only positive seems to be that key republicans on the appropriations committee and some of their leadership seem unwilling to elect a freedumb caucus member or super extremist so far.

Jakyl25 posted...

I know they were tossing around ending the Gaetz rule of 1 person being able to call for removing the Speaker, is that baked in at this point or are they still stuck with that no matter who they eventually go with?

Unclear. It's part of the existing House rules since that was passed at the start of the Congress after McCarthy won. A new Speaker would begin with those rules still in effect. They could try to amend them, but they'd need the votes to do so. Do they have them? idk. Would need Dems I'm sure.

In not-Speaker-chaos news, Mark Meadows has flipped on Trump in the Special Counsel's 1/6 case - granted immunity in return. Probably the biggest known flip yet in the various Trump cases, I think.

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1716920554371023335

rare triple post (i am so sorry) but after Emmer dropped out they held a lightning round second ballot process amongst themselves and our new, new GOP Speaker candidate is Mike Johnson. Republican reps were sounding more confident he can win a floor vote when talking to reporters afterward, but I mean... I'll believe it when I see it... which might be tomorrow it sounds like.

As for Johnson himself:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1717013355775545630

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1716941155106230706

For Johnson specifically, if Twitter doesn't work for you: Voted against certifying the AZ and PA 2020 election results, against a ban on wage discrimination on the basis of sex, against the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, against expanding healthcare for vets exposed to toxins, against the codification of same-sex marriage, against Ukraine aid, and against the 48-day CR. He did vote to raise the debt ceiling. There's more votes in the tweet but I picked out a selection of some.

For comparison: Emmer voted to certify the 2020 election, to codify same sex marriage (a fact cited as reason some GOP reps said they would never vote him), and voted for the CR.

So, yeah, should he become Speaker - I'd say this was a definite win for the HFC/MAGA wing of the GOP even if, say, someone like Donalds or Hern might be more aligned with them (in that they did not even vote to raise the debt ceiling along with all those other positions)

Thorn posted...

Voted against certifying the AZ and PA 2020 election results, against a ban on wage discrimination on the basis of sex, against the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, against expanding healthcare for vets exposed to toxins, against the codification of same-sex marriage, against Ukraine aid, and against the 48-day CR.

Ladies and gentleman, your 2023 GOP!

https://youtu.be/DdCYMvaUcrA?t=26

Thorn posted...

As for Johnson himself:

https://twitter.com/rachelvscott/status/1717013048802644057

When's the last time Republicans did policy, because they think it was only last night

How dare you ask about how the potential House Majority leader feels about major issues!

It's done.

At least this shitshow is over.

You mean at least THAT shitshow is over.

Now we can move on to the shitshow about them not wanting to give aid to Ukraine and whatever bullshit they'll pull about keeping the govt running.

I'd say they can go back to blaming the dems for everything except they blamed the dems for this stupidity.

I know they lack the skill to do so, but it would be great if every single republican in a swing district has to repeatedly answer why they support a leader who accepts their election results but not biden's, from the same vote.

I wish voters would actually care, but that's asking too much.

I feel like moderates missed an opportunity here. The repeated GOP conference nomination votes showed a bit over 55% of the Republican conference is more in the moderate camp than the hard right one, since Scalise and Emmer won with about that percentage. But the moderates are unwilling to use the hardball tactics the far right is. Really doesn't make sense how 75%+ of the House (Dems + moderate Republicans) can't get together and outvote the others.

Really doesn't make sense how 75%+ of the House (Dems + moderate Republicans) can't get together and outvote the others.

Any Republican that votes with Democrats risks losing their next primary.

Any republican that votes with Democrats on this can say goodbye to their career; it's over.

Even the so-called moderates repeatedly publicly that they absolutely would not work with Democrats. Any bipartisan solution was repeatedly shit on because they wanted to shut Dems out.

There really aren't any moderates left in the GOP - what remained of them were purged (if they didn't convert for political expediency) during the Trump years and 2022. Johnson, the guy they just elected Speaker, basically has basically no daylight between himself and Jordan and the rest of the HFC.

A lot of the publicly stated objection to Jordan was his extreme far-right views but they exposed that for the lie it was by falling behind Johnson. Their real problem with Jordan was that he was a very public asshole and grandstander about things and because they took issue with how he kneecapped Scalise's Speaker bid and felt he tried to "cut the line" when it wasn't "his turn."

Almost all these guys have very little policy difference when you look at their votes. Back when Emmer was the speaker-designee for *checks watch* 4 hours, Jim Banks said he would never vote for him because he was "the most liberal member in leadership." If you use ProPublica to compare their voting records they are a 92% match this Congress. And if you sort out votes on amendments to bills (which represent the vast majority of their differences) they have only differed on actually passing a bill 3 times.

What this really came down to IMO was that the HFC was adamant on defeating any speakership bid from someone who voted to certify the 2020 election (and Scalise) - and they did. The establishment wing tossed Jordan because, again, they loathed his antics - not his policy. They wanted an election denier as Speaker and they got it.

yeah, scalise described himself as 'david duke without the baggage' and he has been the #2 house guy for a while and was fully supported by the establishment gop. i follow politics closely and i had never even heard of mike johnson before he came in second to emmer monday. apparently he is very similar to jim jordan with more polish, which is fucking terrifying.

the worst immediate thing about johnson imo is that he has opposed funding ukraine recently. assuming schumer and mcconnell will still play hardball to get funding, but it is really bad to have an extremist like that second in line to the presidency and controlling what bills get voted on in the lower chamber

he had to have cut a deal with the appropriators in the gop to get elected, so i am assuming he will be trying to keep the government open at least, but if he tries to play hardball with ukraine funding it will be really bad.

andel posted...

apparently he is very similar to jim jordan with more polish, which is fucking terrifying.

Yeah, it's a 97% match this Congress.

https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/J000299-mike-johnson/compare-votes/J000289-jim-jordan/118

For comparison, when I was running comparisons related to other candidates against their detractors (like Banks and Emmer from before) you would see it more around 90% +/2 if they were on opposite wings of the party. I'll admit I didn't do like an exhaustive round-robin here or anything but a 97% match was by far the closest of the couple I did do.

The establishment wing just hated Jordan on a personal level that much. Because they certainly don't take issue with his policy because they essentially voted in a clone of him "without the baggage."

Meanwhile in the NY Civil Trial today: Trump made some remarks that violated the gag order during a break. In response, when the judge heard about it, he held a hearing about it and called Trump to the stand to testify. Trump claimed he was referring to Cohen (who was testifying in the trial trial) and not the judge's clerk.

The judge found him "not credible" and fined him $10,000. Shortly afterwards (when the judge denied dismissing the case after Cohen got twisted up during cross-examination; Cohen would clarify on redirect that when he said Trump did not tell him to inflate numbers, it was in the literal sense and that he "speaks like a mob boss"), Trump abruptly stormed out of the courthouse, apparently taking both his lawyers and the Secret Service by surprise.

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1717250713682649136
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1717264874017857868

Real talk.

This is becoming an embarrassment for the man, even more than typical....but he is going to be the nominee. He just is. Even if he's convicted prior to the election he just is.

If he really does tank this bad (my staunchly republican father who supported Trump though his entire term said he would just not vote at all if Trump was nominated), does he bring a bunch of GOP seats down with him? Can turnout get that bad for the Republicans if the large swathes of the non-MAGA and MAGA agnostic portions are turned off this much?

Or does it truly not matter?

how such a man baby can have such a hold over the republican party...

UshiromiyaEva posted...

This is becoming an embarrassment for the man, even more than typical....but he is going to be the nominee. He just is. Even if he's convicted prior to the election he just is.

His opponents aren't even pretending to run against him.

DeSantis and Haley are just going back and forth in their ads targeting each other.

They know their only chance is Trump being forced out of the race (which won't happen).

It's also possible Trump dies or something too, given his age, overall health, and apparent addiction to fast food.

You cannot make me believe that Mike Johnson is a guy who existed before today and not a 3d printed generic MAGA R

JFC

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1717238184906506442?s=21

Obellisk posted...

how such a man baby can have such a hold over the republican party...

Well to start with, they're all man babies too

in '20 the gop downballot consistently outperformed trump but in '22 the extremist candidates that trump endorsed in competitive races basically all lost. the gop base generally votes and while i do think trump will hurt them downballot compared to a generic candidate, i think the non extremists will generally perform closely in the competitive districts.

it blows my mind that anyone could vote for any republican that doesn't specifically repudiate trump in '24, much less trump himself.

it's really a weird situation because i think biden is very likely to beat trump in '24 while i think he could struggle with a generic republican like haley, but there is no way trump should even be allowed to run at all after trying to overthrow democracy and being the most blatant criminal in us political history by far

I think the overturning of Roe v Wade is going to end up being the significant factor in the GOP's underperformance in 2022 and I remain under the belief that it will carry over to 2024. Anti-abortion stuff is not popular in most parts of the country and protecting abortion rights has had a POTENT effect on turnout for dems, especially women.

Paratroopa1 posted...

I think the overturning of Roe v Wade is going to end up being the significant factor in the GOP's underperformance in 2022 and I remain under the belief that it will carry over to 2024. Anti-abortion stuff is not popular in most parts of the country and protecting abortion rights has had a POTENT effect on turnout for dems, especially women.

yeah, even many voters in red states don't believe in completely banning abortion when polled. ohio is a chud haven now but they seem to want to protect choice when put to a popular vote. the total abortion bans are incredibly unpopular and the new speaker supports a total federal ban which will be good ammo for democrats

with trump on the ballot and his supreme court picks directly leading to the loss of women's rights i would hope biden can at least hold enough swing states. the polling is neck and neck now, but a hypothetical is a lot different than staring down the barrel of electing trump in the midst of his criminal trials and voting once again for his disastrous leadership

I'm most afraid the Israel issue could swing the election. How many will stay home because Biden supports Israel? On the other hand, it doesn't matter what Trump says about Israel, his base will 100% support him.

Dancedreamer posted...

I'm most afraid the Israel issue could swing the election. How many will stay home because Biden supports Israel? On the other hand, it doesn't matter what Trump says about Israel, his base will 100% support him.

i can't imagine anyone that previously voted for biden would stay home and let trump potentially get elected just because biden supports israel when basically every elected politician outside of talib and omar support them. the far left rarely votes anyway, if they did we could have had a president bernie

At least 22 killed in Maine tonight.

Two separate shootings by the same person, still at large.

Dancedreamer posted...

I'm most afraid the Israel issue could swing the election. How many will stay home because Biden supports Israel? On the other hand, it doesn't matter what Trump says about Israel, his base will 100% support him.

Out of all the things that could affect the election, I don't think this is going to really change anything unless the Biden admin makes some kind of major mistake, which is of course always possible. Anyone who's so pro-Palestine and anti-Israel that they'd not vote for Biden over pretty straightforward support for a longtime ally (while keeping temperatures much lower than Trump would) probably already wasn't voting for Biden and I think that's a pretty small cohort; if anything I think the Israel thing is likely to be a boon for Biden support so long as he doesn't fuck anything up (which is, again, always possible). It's a good opportunity for him to claw some kind of narrative back of being the right leader for the right time, which has been dogging him pretty much his entire term.

I dont want to be a party pooper but Trumps odds are significantly better than people are acting like, and its not really anything to do with the man himself. Governments all over the world are getting hammered in elections due to current economic conditions and Biden barely has an edge in the polls. It should be tight.

The Republican Party is such a cult.

Fuck Trump

Paratroopa1 posted...

Out of all the things that could affect the election, I don't think this is going to really change anything unless the Biden admin makes some kind of major mistake, which is of course always possible. Anyone who's so pro-Palestine and anti-Israel that they'd not vote for Biden over pretty straightforward support for a longtime ally (while keeping temperatures much lower than Trump would) probably already wasn't voting for Biden and I think that's a pretty small cohort; if anything I think the Israel thing is likely to be a boon for Biden support so long as he doesn't fuck anything up (which is, again, always possible). It's a good opportunity for him to claw some kind of narrative back of being the right leader for the right time, which has been dogging him pretty much his entire term.

You don't follow many Arab Americans, then. He's already fucked things up beyond straightforward support.

Even if they hate Biden over this stuff its better to vote Biden than the alternative. There isnt a single positive to voting for Trump (unless youre a billionaire I guess) and given what hes already done if he got away with it all and won again hed go even deeper because he would literally be untouchable. He would absolutely believe he could do anything without consequence more than his warped fragile mind already does

Obviously he's better than the alternative for a lot of reasons. But I've seen multiple people express personal frustration at having helped him get into office with their vote. I think it's foolish to assume that every single person that voted for him before will do so again just because Republicans are worse. There is an enthusiasm risk here.

I don't doubt that some may see it as a reason to stay home, despite that action directly contributing to aiding the re-election of Trump who is far worse on this issue (Muslim ban, moving the embassy, etc.) and just basically every other issue too. But I also feel like not supporting Israel would hurt him worse.

I think he's been taking a better tone of late by mentioning the plight of the Palestinians and working to get aid there but yeah he definitely still has some troubling language around it every now and then and his initial reaction wasn't super great either.

But that's just how US politicians are in general. If anything, I'd say Biden is clearing the bar of expectation I had here simply because I expected an even worse response.

Im not assuming they will, but if they want American democracy to survive they dont really have any other options either. Abstaining, write-ins or voting for Trump all benefit the GOP so its really vote Biden or risk way too much

I expect that we'll have disagreements over the unity of opinion of Arab or Muslim Americans and whether or not they're a sizable enough demographic to swing a presidential election and I don't really have much to say other than that.

Exactly Peaf, and to my point earlier, lets look at whats been happening in general elections in every advanced economy this year:

Estonia - government ousted.
Finland - government ousted.
Greece - government held on with the same level of support(!!!).
Luxembourg - government ousted.
New Zealand - government ousted.
Poland - government ousted.
Slovakia - government ousted.
Spain - unclear, but government support reduced.
Thailand - government ousted.
Turkey - government held on with reduced support.

Really every government is getting a beating lately except for Greece. If you followed that election at all it was largely down to one of the biggest failures of opposition Ive ever seen, a left-wing progressive party just going out and saying we are anti-establishment so we want to court the Neo-Nazi vote, no Im not exaggerating. Anyway when you look at polls around the world you see the same thing, sitting governments are on a course for a trouncing in Canada, France, Germany, the UK, Ireland, and so on. This is ultimately a result of the huge cost of living crisis thats basically everywhere. Politically it is looking like 2008 all over again.

The funny thing is, compared to all the examples I just listed (except Greece) Biden is polling much better. The USs general polarisation, Roe v. Wade, and his opponent being Trump are definitely advantages other current leaders dont have. I also think that the fact that the current Republican-held house is an absolute clown show may help. But right now it looks 50/50 at best for the Democrats holding on in 2024 and probably worse than that.

That's fair. I'm only trying to point out that i haven't gone looking for it either online or irl, and in both instances I've seen/ heard comments along the lines of "I can't believe i voted for him." Assuming that there's no risk of that regret affecting the general is optimistic.

But I'm far from an expert in demographics or voting trends, even within this topic series I've generally tried to avoid those kinds of conversations for that reason.

as this topic comes to a close let us have another look at our new speaker who the GOP unanimously voted in:

Supported criminalizing gay sex:

https://twitter.com/esqueer_/status/1717290132414370230

whatever the fuck this is:

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1717167086089183243

Voter turnout will likely be down all around in '24 compared to '20, possibly even '16.