Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 7: Love me, love me, say that you love me

(+) Yeah! (+)

I am going to sleep pretty early tonight, but I'll be much more involved today than previous days.

SirChris posted...

Defenses of mzero are, of course, welcome

Defend from what you haven't even made a case

I do not look too kindly upon Lopen for murdering his chat buddy of n1 tbh.

But that is PARANOIA for now, if lopen may be a wolf let us find the third. It does not do well to assume bussing still relatively early on imo

UltimaterializerX posted...

Openly calling for triple+ kills is so unbelievably anti-town

You went along with it!!

MZero posted...

Defend from what you haven't even made a case

I am looking for reasons to town read you. My case is "because i said so"

Was Corrik due for a scan today? I didnt double check the wording on his claim.

I think Mzero is town because he said something Peaf said "sounded like a lie" and it feels like scum scum wouldn't do that

I'm also mortally convinced Isquen is town. I'll tell you why later

"but tbf I am scum buddies with peaf so you know" - SirChris Topic 1 Post 283

Lopen posted...

I think Mzero is town because he said something Peaf said "sounded like a lie" and it feels like scum scum wouldn't do that

Hmmm, I did like this post over night with Death n1 it is true.

This submission is entered into evidence.

Dont let scum lead you astray friends

Is that really your best effort, friend?

Alas I was just spiritually Peaf's scumbuddy this time. Too much mercy in these old bones.

Lopen posted...

I'm also mortally convinced Isquen is town. I'll tell you why later

I came to the same conclusion last night

SirChris posted...

Is that really your best effort, friend?

"Because I said so" doesn't give me much to defend myself against lol

MZero posted...

"Because I said so" doesn't give me much to defend myself against lol

I am not looking for you to defend yourself, I want to hear from the people. For example, Sir Lopen spoke on your behalf.

"Unless scum has a night zero scam, i don't think isquen is at risk of dying before d2 unless he is unable to find a partner" - Peaf T1-410

To me this feels like Peaf slipping that Isquen is town

MZero posted...

"Unless scum has a night zero scam, i don't think isquen is at risk of dying before d2 unless he is unable to find a partner" - Peaf T1-410

To me this feels like Peaf slipping that Isquen is town

Explain the reasoning for me?

SirChris posted...

I am not looking for you to defend yourself, I want to hear from the people. For example, Sir Lopen spoke on your behalf.

You asked if that was my best effort!

MZero posted...

You asked if that was my best effort!

Then you started towncasing others, which is better effort :P

My current POV

1. Mzero
2. Lopen
3. Chaeix (JC)
4. Isquen
5. FD
6. Ulti
7. Dumey
10. Kirby

I think both scum are here, just starting over without myself, corrik, and sultan who did very well 1 on 1 last night.

So let's compare reasons to town read these people and find someone who doesnt have solid reasons collectively.

SirChris posted...

Explain the reasoning for me?

Well slip is a strong word but obviously Peaf would know Isquen isn't being NK'd if they're both scum

Of course it could be faked but it feels more like TMI personally

MZero posted...

Well slip is a strong word but obviously Peaf would know Isquen isn't being NK'd if they're both scum

Of course it could be faked but it feels more like TMI personally

I mean, could be cheeky since... if he is a wolf then yeah he wont be nked lol

SirChris posted...

I feel very good about Sultan being town tbh

Can you explain why please

Lopen posted...

Can you explain why please

Yes, he was solving in a way that was extremely proactive and he spared a good amount of time indulging in some godfather fear when i wasnt posting enough for his liking.

I know someone said i always tr sultan, but I have a good history of being able to read him.

Whew, I was worried that Red was gonna come in alive and we were gonna have to untangle all of that. Red lied about his role, maybe to bluff that his chance of hitting scum was lower?, but it doesn't mean that much other than the fact that he scanned Death N1 as well.

I guess with Red's flip, I have to cool my jets on the Chris angle, though I still think Sultan is my top suspect coming in to today.

My ending read to Ulti earlier today was:
So going into D3, my thoughts are
Town: Dumey, JC, Corrik, Kirby, Isquen, Red (?), Chris(?)
POE: FD, MZero, Ulti, Lopen
Scum: Sultan

The ? on Red and Chris were dependent on Red actually flipping today.

Ok.

I said in my chat with Isquen

1. I would trust your read of Sultan
2. I would trust you are town as I think miller + gf with the current scan mechanic is nutso

I believe red did not lie about his role?

he confirmed corrik was accurate for me when i asked, he was obviously just like being careful heh

Lopen posted...

2. I would trust you are town as I think miller + gf with the current scan mechanic is nutso

Did we not just go through this yesterday

nah, lopen can be scum but assuming the guy who dunked on scum day 1 is scum day 3 when we know this game 100% gets to day 6 at worst is not the way to do things tbh

My conversation with Chris was very one sided until I gianed his trust basically.

But had some back and forth after.

To answer Chris on town reads,

Dumey: I bleed town blood.

JC: I think with the EoD D1 scenario, he easily could have extended a date to both me and Peaf without looking too bad. He did say earlier in D1 how much he agreed with me, so MAYBE he thought it would be too suspicious to date Peaf over me, but I felt like reading end of D1, JC was desperate enough for "any port in a storm" and STILL was picky enough to choose me over Peaf.

Kirby: Similar to JC, largely because of EoD D1. There's like a 5% chance that Kirby was scum with Peaf, and decided that it was too suspicious to take Peaf's gambit and slapped him down. I feel like if he were scum buddies with Peaf, he doesn't just let Peaf die there on a scum team that's already low on numbers. It's possible, but think he's town. Also his anger at Lopen and not immediately taking the Red date when he was in final 3 at end of D2, when it would have been completely reasonable to follow the plan to just lynch Lea. Kirby really feels like Town with no good moves at that position, and is frustrated and paralyzed at what action to take.

Corrik: I don't think he had any reason to do his claim yesterday and make the arguments he did as scum. Very interested to see if he comes in today with a new analysis after seeing that Red was the reason no one claimed Cop when he asked for it.

Isquen: The weakest read of the above. I think Isquen could have taken free dates yesterday like Ulti's. But even at end of day, Isquen was being picky about his date. Maybe there's some scum role that explains this behavior and didn't want to date Vanilla Ulti, but my initial interpretation here is that Isquen was acting in a townie manner. Isquen is maybe bottom of Town/Top of PoE list.

Chris : Inno scan. Possible Godfather, but not willing to pursue it immediately.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I read MZero as town tho.

well then find lopen's partner lol

lol, if you're gonna honor Red, you should at least only send it to your town reads, right?

Or maybe you did. You dated JC twice and Lopen none. Easy.

UltimaterializerX posted...

##Date: MZero
##Date: Justin
##Date: Chris
##Date: Justin
##Date: FD
##Date: Corrik
##Date: Sultan
##Date: Kirby

Okay Red :P

Question for everyone do you think Lopen is playing mob boss energy?

I'm going to now explain why I think Isquen is lock town and hopefully that will convince people that

1. He is town
2. I am town

I went into the night letting Isquen share suspicions. He said his reads were currently all the same and that Dumey was his number one suspect. He opened with the same thing that weirded Corrik out saying we should wait till 2 hours before deadline for anything important

I made a crack about "oh yeah if you say something big I might have scum kill you instead of the cop"

So then I shared some more suspicions. I had to argue with him that Chris was probably not GF because miller + gf in this setup would make the scanners garbage since the scans are already amambiguous. I had to argue with him that Corrik was town because to claim backup scanner blind and name the exact mechanic is ridiculous.

He had not talked that much at this point. Was a few hours in.

He said he was going to sleep. Like an hour later I said I was losing conviction he was town since I figured he would talk more if he was really mad Corrik didn't say anything.

I then claimed Gambit, Town Gambler. I said my ability was to redirect the night kill to the person I was in the room with once per game and if I redirected to town I would be unable to issue date requests the next day. I told him I was going to 100% use it tonight and I had decided to do this because. 1. I was not 100% sure he was town. 2. We were the big mislynches left on the table. 3. To gain another cop scan.

Isquen in the morning claimed his role to me (Travis Kelce, Vanilla), but said he guessed that was OK since it was saving the cop. He expressed some doubt over whether I was telling the truth but seemed to believe it in the end.

He then went into a few stages of theorizing scum setups and whether Id necessarily be saving the cop, and eventually coming to the conclusion that they'd probably shoot Chris roleblock Red if Chris wasn't scum and so signed off on my decision and said it made sense.

He then worked with me through scum hunting and we were thinking Dumey + Sultan/Ulti/Mzero/JC, with Sultan seeming most likely. I will say in honor of Lea's Death Ive decided to just give Kirby the benefit of a doubt going forward and not push his lynch.

I then after action deadline told him I was Boa Hancock vanilla and that hopefully there were no hard feelings

Overall his reaction to my claim (appear to believe it, work through whether it made sense to redirect to him, willingness to continue scumhunting, and the fact that Red was killed and not roleblocked with me being killed. I also quite liked that I had to argue with him about Chris and Corrik despite the obvious thing being to believe they are town.

So yeah I don't think Isquen's Sense Motive or Bluff are that high and going forward I'd rather be lynched than him if it comes down to that (since at least you might believe he's town if I'm dead)