Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Day 11: What's love got to do with it?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Your plan is trying to make scum not pair today, to force them to pair tomorrow, right? Let's say Final 3 is Isquen/MZero/UIti, and scum is Isquen/MZero and they date to lynch Ulti. We lynch one of the two scum tomorrow and we've avoided MYLO.

Or only one of the three is scum, let's say it's MZero. Ulti dies today, and MZero dated town, so your plan to try and force the date between scum tomorrow still holds.

Isn't this basically the same result as your plan? What am I missing?

MZero posted...

Isquen and I can't date today so this just guarantees Ulti survives

All the more reason to include Sultan :)

And yes MZero, I didn't refresh before posting that, so no need to repeat yourself, lol.

I'm so glad Dumey's looked at his watch and went "oh, we're on Day 4, that means it's Day 2 twice over! Time to mislynch town-confirmed Isquen!"

Imbecilic.

EDumey posted...

Isn't this basically the same result as your plan? What am I missing?

Just the fact that it's 4 people not 3, and letting the 4 of them decide for themselves who to kill gives scum an outsized influence on the result while also allowing them to pair on 9 and keeping a path open to try to NOT pair on 7.

If we miss twice AND the remaining two are in a situation where they aren't forced to pair on 7 then we're just giving up the entire day of 5 for no reason.

But I've said my piece numerous times now :shrug:

Isquen posted...

I'm so glad Dumey's looked at his watch and went "oh, we're on Day 4, that means it's Day 2 twice over! Time to mislynch town-confirmed Isquen!"

Imbecilic.

Aren't you the one who just said you wouldn't accept a date from Dumey even if he picked you to save in final 3?

Isquen posted...

I'm so glad Dumey's looked at his watch and went "oh, we're on Day 4, that means it's Day 2 twice over! Time to mislynch town-confirmed Isquen!"

Imbecilic.

Isquen you're so illiterate you don't realize that I've not been advocating for your lynch at all today. The one time I said a literal joke to your face with a /jk in the post itself. I started the day trying to rationalize your end of day because I thought it made you look towny. Chris saying to lynch you earlier went directly in the face of both directions I was trying to push for. This grudge of yours against me is totally unfounded.

Isquen posted...

I'm so glad Dumey's looked at his watch and went "oh, we're on Day 4, that means it's Day 2 twice over! Time to mislynch town-confirmed Isquen!"

Imbecilic.

...town-confirmed how exactly?

Isquen so bad at reading he doesn't understand the problem with him not being willing to date me, is because it means I can't save him in the situation Ulti is proposing. Fucking lmao.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Aren't you the one who just said you wouldn't accept a date from Dumey even if he picked you to save in final 3?

Why would I save the one I've been SCREAMING HAS BEEN SCUM SINCE DAY 1. That's a triple kill I'd gladly take.

I'm going to bed, screw the lot of you. Talk to me tomorrow when I may give half a damn anymore.

Chris already said this when he did his Peaf ISO, but if Dumey's scum, somebody give him and Peaf an Oscar because sheesh those interactions did not look like scum/scum at all.

We also got this reaction from Peaf when I mentioned putting Ulti on the chopping block (T2P321):

PeaceFrog posted...

You WHAT

He's my only town read!!

Which is like... I don't remember if he ever brought up Ulti before then.

Peaf also mentioned wanting to pair up with JC or Death if Dumey split up with him. He voiced suspicion on MZero and Sultan and even pulled a post of MZero's that he claimed was scummy.

When Peaf claimed, Sultan asked him if he meant that Peaf targets a room rather than a person. Dumey forgot about the rules and speculated that there was a scum role that lets you spy on other rooms. JC tries to logic that Peaf's role reveals any observers on a room, and thus that would indicate the people in that room are likely town.

FD poked holes in Peaf's claim, trying to speculate what scum role gets countered by such a role. But he also said that since it targets a room instead of a player makes it seem more believable to him. Kinda odd.

... Honestly, I'm seeing everything Chris saw in his ISO. Maybe a bit less on Isquen, but FD has been weirdly absent from any of Peaf's interactions.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Just the fact that it's 4 people not 3, and letting the 4 of them decide for themselves who to kill gives scum an outsized influence on the result while also allowing them to pair on 9 and keeping a path open to try to NOT pair on 7.

If we miss twice AND the remaining two are in a situation where they aren't forced to pair on 7 then we're just giving up the entire day of 5 for no reason.

But I've said my piece numerous times now :shrug:

Yeah, I get it. It's not really me you need to convince anyway. I'm happy to follow the plan, but you have to get people to actually buy into it. The scenario I tried to push to offer a good situation to Ulti previously was flatly denied by Chris, so I don't know what to do with it.

Isquen posted...

Why would I save the one I've been SCREAMING HAS BEEN SCUM SINCE DAY 1. That's a triple kill I'd gladly take.

I'm going to bed, screw the lot of you. Talk to me tomorrow when I may give half a damn anymore.

Yes, don't acknowledge either one of my responses that show you were just talking out of your ass with your bias that comes from who knows where.

Anyways I guess we just won't have any resolution and we'll hit the final 6 hours without any consensus. I'm sure that can't possibly backfire :/

But If we ARE going to do something that resembles people from Group 2 deciding between people from Group 1 then my suggestion would be for MZero to make date requests to those in Group 2, and for no one to have have a date request aimed at MZero. That way everyone in Group 2 will have the flexibility to pick MZero if they want after MZero goes to bed and the decision won't be completely decided by who happens to be around to make a last minute date request.

Dumey is showing a little panick at his name getting thrown around idk if that's good or bad.

But what I mean is why are you freaking dumey I'd we are still going with the plan?

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Dumey is showing a little panick at his name getting thrown around idk if that's good or bad.

Did you not like that word used against you earlier, so throwing it back at me?

I'm always defensive Sultan. That's just my nature. 90% of the games I play here I get into a big argument with someone defending myself.

To be truthful though, it's more annoyance at trying all day to try and move people toward actually pairing up and moving the game state forward, having someone like Ulti completely spit in it's face, and then he comes in and expects everyone to work with him instead, while coming up with insane conclusions that obviously have major flaws in them. It's just annoying to deal with, so I'm being childish in return.

As for Isquen, I don't really know what else I can say on that front. I literally haven't gone after him at all today, and Ulti is even suspecting me of being scum buddies with him, and he still is making up his own fantasy about what I apparently think of him. ???

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

But what I mean is why are you freaking dumey I'd we are still going with the plan?

Are we? What steps have we made towards doing the plan? It looks to me like every attempt to set it up has been jeopardized or vetoed one way or another.

Chris says just lynch Isquen? Ulti vetoes and immediately dates him.
I give Ulti favorable treatment as incentive to undate Isquen, and say lynch Sultan? Chris vetoes.
Ulti tries to set up a final 3 with me and Isquen? Isquen will refuse to date me, and both Ulti and Isquen threaten a triple kill.

How would you like to set up FD's plan Sultan?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Anyways I guess we just won't have any resolution and we'll hit the final 6 hours without any consensus. I'm sure that can't possibly backfire :/

But If we ARE going to do something that resembles people from Group 2 deciding between people from Group 1 then my suggestion would be for MZero to make date requests to those in Group 2, and for no one to have have a date request aimed at MZero. That way everyone in Group 2 will have the flexibility to pick MZero if they want after MZero goes to bed and the decision won't be completely decided by who happens to be around to make a last minute date request.

Honestly, I'm still not sure what the best course is for today. I still think people should take some time and review interactions from previous days to inform our actions today, but I don't think anybody is willing to take me up on that.

Nonetheless, that sounds like a fine thing to do for MZero. I don't think I have a date open with him, but just in case, ##Breakup

Honestly, I think we need to stop focusing on plans and instead actually try to build cases on each other to convince people who is town and who isn't. Ulti didn't just completely 180 on Isquen until he convinced himself with some kind of evidence.

We need to look back at actions that don't reflect the current game state. We need to observe if someone's interactions from back then seem counteractive to what they're doing today. We need to look for inconsistencies born from scum not expecting the game to unfold the way it has, or signs of scum actually having significant control over who dies at the end of the day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iN9CjAfo5n0

anyway yeah that plan works for me

EDumey posted...

Are we? What steps have we made towards doing the plan? It looks to me like every attempt to set it up has been jeopardized or vetoed one way or another.

You could date me or Mzero idk

And then not going along with the plan is telling or we just switch things up.

I'd be cool with you dating Kirby. You can date withing your group too being in group 2
Making FD Chris jc decide the rest.

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, I think we need to stop focusing on plans and instead actually try to build cases on each other to convince people who is town and who isn't. Ulti didn't just completely 180 on Isquen until he convinced himself with some kind of evidence.

We need to look back at actions that don't reflect the current game state. We need to observe if someone's interactions from back then seem counteractive to what they're doing today. We need to look for inconsistencies born from scum not expecting the game to unfold the way it has, or signs of scum actually having significant control over who dies at the end of the day.

If that's the case the bottom needs to be like FD dumey isquen Ulti

Since they seem to have the most say in what has been going on more or less unless I'm getting this wrong.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I'd be cool with you dating Kirby.

What on earth changed your mind lol

And the point with my last post wasn't a dig at people leading today. My point is that we need to start having deeper conversations than just pointing the finger of suspicion at people and rehashing the same arguments.

There's fewer players here today than there were on Day 1. Fewer variables to account for. We all aught to do a bit of review and ISOing of Day 1 to see if information we know now can recontextualize content from earlier in the game.

Kirby321 posted...

What on earth changed your mind lol

And the point with my last post wasn't a dig at people leading today. My point is that we need to start having deeper conversations than just pointing the finger of suspicion at people and rehashing the same arguments.

There's fewer players here today than there were on Day 1. Fewer variables to account for. We all aught to do a bit of review and ISOing of Day 1 to see if information we know now can recontextualize content from earlier in the game.

Well you guys can't date tomorrow was my thought.

I also have an alternative idea let me get it together here may take a minute to for mate it.

If we don't like it so be it.

Huh

I'm asking why you went from "Kirby is scum" to "I'm fine with dating Kirby"

Kirby321 posted...

Huh

I'm asking why you went from "Kirby is scum" to "I'm fine with dating Kirby"

I said you dating dumey?

Not me dating Kirby

Responding to Dumey saying I'd be okay with YOU dating Kirby

Any ways my idea will come next post

Okay so I have an idea we can decide groupings of 3(so we don't get into a position we have people who cant date and such) later make it like a Tournament. Last man standing is out.

Example

Chaeix (JC)
Sultan
Fd

Say FD chooses JC

i move to the next round

Dumey
Kirby
Ulti

Kirby chooses Ulti Dumey moves to the next round

SirChris
Mzero
Isquen

Chris chooses mzero
Isquen moves to the next round

Then the left overs are

Sultan
Dumey
Isquen

Then the 3 of us fight to the death

Dumey and I agree killing isquen is the play we date

Isquen dies

I can try to reexaplain if this doesn't make sense.

Why is it that I am waking up to half baked substitute plans?

Who decides who is in the group of 3? Pulling names out of a hat?

Is there a designated "decision maker" in each group? Or are two sus people just going to save each other over someone who is much less sus?

How does your plan account for preventing death on 5 if we swing and miss today?

(edit: minor typo)

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Why is it that I am waking up to half baked substitute plans?

Well... it was just an idea and your plan is getting shit on so.. we need some kind of alternative right?

It just seems like everyone is paranoid and scrambling.

Who decides who is in the group of 3? Pulling names out of a hat?

Could have Confirmed town Chris decide or we could keep it up to random I guess?

Is there a designated "decision maker" in each group? Or are two sus people just going to save each other over someone who is much less sus?

Could do those outside of the groups,
Like the other 6 decide who dates in that grouping?

How does your plan account for preventing death on 5 if we swing and miss today?

Well I guess I didn't account for this....
Well hmm...

Maybe I thought too prematurely on this...

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I said you dating dumey?

Not me dating Kirby

Responding to Dumey saying I'd be okay with YOU dating Kirby

Any ways my idea will come next post

Oh fuck I can't read
I thought you said "I'd be cool with dating you Kirby"

Kirby, since Isquen is showing an unwillingness to date Dumey, how would you feel if Dumey and I dated and then You + JC + Chris became the decisionmakers from group 2?

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Kirby, since Isquen is showing an unwillingness to date Dumey, how would you feel if Dumey and I dated and then You + JC + Chris became the decisionmakers from group 2?

But what if I want to date Dumey

Kirby321 posted...

But what if I want to date Dumey

I mean sure, that fits my plan as well.

I guess my concern is that my plan becomes incredibly difficult to stick to if we miss scum today. I know that it creates a mathematical inevitability if my assumption that both scum are in those 4 is true, but I would feel better if all of the town-ier players had more of a hand in the decision today. Whereas if I not only create the plan but directly save someone from group 1 suddenly tomorrow becomes "FD's plan is trash, we can't listen two days in a row, he's probably just scum with [whoever he dated]" even though at it's core it's a multi-day plan to prevent exactly that kind of disaster.

In a perfect world we hit scum today and it becomes incredibly obvious who the remaining scum is. Then victory music plays and we all leap into the air in a magnificent group hi-five, freeze frame, picture snap.

But in an unperfect world we're looking at hopefully a coinflip to hit scum today so the plan has to account for that and be prepared to force a day 7 that makes Loss-On-5 impossible or at the very least as unlikely as possible.

If we flip town, you're going to get heat regardless of who you date.

And that's assuming that 1) your premise is correct and 2) everybody including scum willingly follows the plan.

Hence why I'm advocating for a more traditional approach of "present recontextualized evidence from previous days to convict somebody of being scum" rather than mathematical plans predicated on an absolute certainty that two scum are in a specific group of 4 (which makes it even unlikelier that people will go with the plan).

##Date: Kirby

I think it benefits everyone if we try to get to some kind of stable solution before 1PM so that Mzero has time to argue his case if need be. I know he said he'd set an alarm to be available at deadline, but we don't want to do this last minute.

Ulti, I made a case last afternoon looking at MZero's posts and the only scummy thing I really think I could see was maybe going after you and Sultan for inconsistencies rather than motivations. From your personal perspective, do you think MZero was being disingenuous when interacting with you? Or did he feel like he was coming from a town perspective?

(For transparency, I'm not necessarily pushing for an MZero lynch here, just trying to guage the people in the bottom of the PoE and how they feel about each other.)

it's not 4 random players i've picked out of a hat.
It's 4 players I've narrowed down the group two, based not only on the town-seeming play of the others, but the suspicious play of those 4 are various points.

You're saying to use previous days, but that's how I arrived at these 4. I was pushing EXACTLY these 4 yesterday and couldn't do shit because they all dated each other and without a plan with next-day consequences there is nothing to stop them from just dating each other in a different configuration today if they wanted to.

But whatever. 6 hour window hits in 3 hours and then i'm sure all hell breaks loose.

FD what is your honest opinion of Ulti's inconsistencies? The most recent one being dating Isquen after Chris picked Isquen as the best lynch candidate, and recently listing me and Isquen as the likely scum pair due to not enough people listing us as a primary scum candidate.

Do you think this is scum floundering for a mislynch? Or town Ulti genuinely reacting to the game and attempting to solve based on the direction of the PoEs?

Do you agree with him that everyone listing Sultan as their first or second choice means it's obviously a mislynch that scum is comfortable with?

The thing is, my ISO of Isquen has portrayed him as surprisingly consistent. Like I said, his reads have not evolved at all over the course of the game, even from Day 1.

And I feel like that might be in his favor of being town.

Dumey's absolutely correct for approaching this from a motivations perspective. It's not that people are acting scummy. It's the why as well.

EDumey posted...

FD what is your honest opinion of Ulti's inconsistencies? The most recent one being dating Isquen after Chris picked Isquen as the best lynch candidate, and recently listing me and Isquen as the likely scum pair due to not enough people listing us as a primary scum candidate.

Do you think this is scum floundering for a mislynch? Or town Ulti genuinely reacting to the game and attempting to solve based on the direction of the PoEs?

He's still my #1 choice as scum in the 4-pack. Except for day 2 when he gave you the power to kill him (which I still see as a calculated risk and or read that you wouldn't pull the trigger) he has been content to lock a date and stay put. His willingness to play ball today reads to me as him realizing that he's running out of runway for this strategy to keep working. Either he or Isquen was 100% getting lynched tomorrow if they refused to budge and the writing was on the wall. And then suddenly he's much more amenable to teamwork.

There have been points where his solving feels genuine, but I'm having difficulty to elevate that over the negatives.

EDumey posted...

Do you agree with him that everyone listing Sultan as their first or second choice means it's obviously a mislynch that scum is comfortable with?

No, as you stated if sultan is scum it only takes 1 person to list him as a fake suspect so I don't think it's the revelation ulti is making it out to be. With that said I like that Sultan has been an active participant today even after chris showed up and effectively vetoed a Sultan a lynch.

I agree. For as much as I got annoyed with Sultan's fear mongering yesterday, I will give him credit as either alignment for sticking around and playing the game through. I think some of my Sultan confusion may be due to the several games where he was "present" but not super active, due to being in multiple mafia games at the same time during Champs. It is a very different Sultan than what I'm accustomed to, and that might be why he keeps pinging me.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

He's still my #1 choice as scum in the 4-pack. Except for day 2 when he gave you the power to kill him (which I still see as a calculated risk and or read that you wouldn't pull the trigger) he has been content to lock a date and stay put. His willingness to play ball today reads to me as him realizing that he's running out of runway for this strategy to keep working. Either he or Isquen was 100% getting lynched tomorrow if they refused to budge and the writing was on the wall. And then suddenly he's much more amenable to teamwork.

There have been points where his solving feels genuine, but I'm having difficulty to elevate that over the negatives.

I'm sold on Ulti. Also lines up with Isquen constantly saying that Ulti has been trying to pocket him all game.

##Date: Chris
##Date: FD
##Date: JC
##Date: Dumey
##Date: Kirby

Included Dumey and Kirby just in case. I'm heading to bed soon but I'll try to be back before deadline in case someone picks me up and wants to change their mind