Board 8 > Politics Containment 445: Game Over - Return of Trump

(+) Yeah! (+)

foolm0r0n posted...

What is limiting about being against rape and insurrection? There's only 1 presidential candidate in recent history who did that stuff. What is the line if not this stuff?

Your advice comes down to: Forget yourself and your values, submit to the Trump supporter, tell your young girl family members that rapists are okay.

That is no bridge, it is abandoning family, and it is not an option for me.

If you can't help me with this very simple difference, then you fully agree with me: Things cannot be bridged when the politician himself has crossed an extreme line. It is not the fault of the people, but the fault of the politician.

The worst part is he apparently did better with female voters than the last two elections. And Harris did as badly as Hillary Clinton did and worse than both Biden in 2020 and Obama in 2012. The gender gap was a complete freaking lie and I feel disgusted for completely misreading society for this.

AuraChannelerCh posted...

Apparently, 20 million votes or so are missing from this election than the previous one. One side is wondering what happened to these votes, while the other is blaming Biden for making those up during his election.

When I saw the numbers of people that voted one of my first thoughts was very conspiracy theorish, considering how EVERY SINGLE accusation is a confession.

foolm0r0n posted...

What is limiting about being against rape and insurrection? There's only 1 presidential candidate in recent history who did that stuff. What is the line if not this stuff?

Your advice comes down to: Forget yourself and your values, submit to the Trump supporter, tell your young girl family members that rapists are okay.

That is no bridge, it is abandoning family, and it is not an option for me.

If you can't help me with this very simple difference, then you fully agree with me: Things cannot be bridged when the politician himself has crossed an extreme line. It is not the fault of the people, but the fault of the politician.

Your family or whoever isn't Trump. Separate them. The family or whoever is a person that just thinks Trump is the best candidate of the options available to lead the country.

I doubt any of them would say they support rape or whatever else.

But, hey, I'm not your therapist here either. It's not on me to convince you to do anything. I do think you would reach more people with your ideas if they were in your sphere to actually hear them, instead of stating them repeatedly in an echo chamber to have your back patted nonstop. Not saying they would agree with your thoughts, but you never know also.

Corrik7 posted...

Yeah. I actually undershot Trump in my prediction as well. I wasn't sure if the hate of Trump could outweigh the inflation.

i think the biggest limiting factor, and one i didn't expect to be a "we're too close to the sun," is the turnout. nobody here would've predicted that of the 81 million votes, 15-20 million would stay home. a little less sure, if you told me 75 mil voted i'd be like alright, down a bit but understandable, but instead it just fell right back into the block we had in 2016 and all the years before that. this is with a heavy push to early voting by both parties. total whiplash moment.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

The worst part is he apparently did better with female voters than the last two elections. And Harris did as badly as Hillary Clinton did and worse than both Biden in 2020 and Obama in 2012. The gender gap was a complete freaking lie and I feel disgusted for completely misreading society for this.

She actually did worse than Clinton also from what I saw.

Metal_DK posted...

Gen z males were definitely very trump. The broccoli head ones

And that's why they will be forever alone. I would never date a Trump voter. And most of my friends wouldn't either. They can wallow in their male loneliness epidemic for the rest of their lives.

Wanglicious posted...

i think the biggest limiting factor, and one i didn't expect to be a "we're too close to the sun," is the turnout. nobody here would've predicted that of the 81 million votes, 15-20 million would stay home. a little less sure, if you told me 75 mil voted i'd be like alright, down a bit but understandable, but instead it just fell right back into the block we had in 2016 and all the years before that. this is with a heavy push to early voting by both parties. total whiplash moment.

I better never hear about how early voting turnout is an indicator of overall turnout again.

UltimaterializerX posted...

NYT finally called Michigan. I just noticed Maine isn't called for some reason? Why?

Cnn just did also.

Maine has separate districts. Maybe they have to unsort them or something idk.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

The gender gap was a complete freaking lie and I feel disgusted for completely misreading society for this.

no that part is still intact, there's a notable gender gap between men and women, especially in breakdowns that include race/ethnicity.

it's just that said gap is Trump +4 for white women. so there's a notable gap of like 15-20% between white men and women, hispanic men and women, and black men and women (unsure of asian, haven't seen yet and i can see that be far closer), but she just performed worse on damn near every racial/ethnic demographic. gender gap is still huge though!

Buffy_Summers posted...

And that's why they will be forever alone. I would never date a Trump voter. And most of my friends wouldn't either. They can wallow in their male loneliness epidemic for the rest of their lives.

My understanding is that the male loneliness epidemic is about more than romantic/sexual relationships, and it definitely affects progressive men too. Like yeah fuck these guys but male loneliness is a largely distinct issue.

Wanglicious posted...

i think the biggest limiting factor, and one i didn't expect to be a "we're too close to the sun," is the turnout. nobody here would've predicted that of the 81 million votes, 15-20 million would stay home. a little less sure, if you told me 75 mil voted i'd be like alright, down a bit but understandable, but instead it just fell right back into the block we had in 2016 and all the years before that. this is with a heavy push to early voting by both parties. total whiplash moment.

There are still a lot of votes to come including a tonne of votes from very blue parts of California. So it will probably end up more like 8 million staying home. Which is still a lot.

Gotta say, this never felt like a high turnout election to me. This always felt like a low turnout election so I was pretty surprised when we were seeing the early voting reports. Then sure enough

Corrik7 posted...

I doubt any of them would say they support rape or whatever else.

Why? They said they are ok with Trump despite the rape. I'm obv not saying this family are rapists, just that they support one. That's the disagreement that you said was bridgable, but it's not. There's no amount of debate that can convince someone that rape is okay or not, because it's not a political viewpoint.

You're definitely not a therapist, and your advice about bridging politics is totally wrong. That's all.

trumps at 292 right now? What the actual fuck America?

foolm0r0n posted...

Why? They said they are ok with Trump despite the rape. I'm obv not saying this family are rapists, just that they support one. That's the disagreement that you said was bridgable, but it's not. There's no amount of debate that can convince someone that rape is okay or not, because it's not a political viewpoint.

You're definitely not a therapist, and your advice about bridging politics is totally wrong. That's all.

You can have your opinion. And do what you want. Has no bearing on me.

You just fail to see that they don't think he has done those things so they aren't saying they are supporting such things. If you accused them of doing such, their response would simply be that he didn't do that in the first place. (Most likely).

The only thing I blame Biden for is not dropping out before primaries if he was gonna, but even that I don't say conclusively changes the result. I just can't see it being a good thing anymore. And frankly I didn't up until it happened and jumped on that bandwagon, so it's not like I was steadfast but I didn't just form that opinion either.

I also don't think any of that was planned out before that debate. And if he did stay in we'd all be SO SURE it was a mistake not to switch to Kamala right now. So fuck it. I'm just rambling.

Here's a simpler example if you want.

I have family in Pakistan who supported Bin Laden's philosophy. They would never say they approved of 9/11 or terrorism in general though, just some of his ideas. This is also a real thing, not a hypothetical. Is that too far to bridge?

Corrik7 posted...

You just fail to see that they don't think he has done those things so they aren't saying they are supporting such things. If you accused them of doing such, their response would simply be that he didn't do that in the first place. (Most likely).

I don't think anyone fails to see it.

But let's say Bob steals your wallet.
And then someone votes for Bob.
And I say "I'm voting for Bob."
And you say "But Bob stole my wallet!"
and I say "Well, I don't believe he did."

You're not going to suddenly be like "Yeah, that's cool. I get it."

kevwaffles posted...

The only thing I blame Biden for is not dropping out before primaries if he was gonna, but even that I don't say conclusively changes the result. I just can't see it being a good thing anymore. And frankly I didn't up until it happened and jumped on that bandwagon, so it's not like I was steadfast but I didn't just form that opinion either.

I also don't think any of that was planned out before that debate. And if he did stay in we'd all be SO SURE it was a mistake not to switch to Kamala right now. So fuck it. I'm just rambling.

Do we think that this choice was on Biden himself? Because I definitely don't. I think Biden would have stayed in there if not receiving a ton of pressure from the party.

foolm0r0n posted...

Here's a simpler example if you want.

I have family in Pakistan who supported Bin Laden's philosophy. They would never say they approved of 9/11 or terrorism in general though, just some of his ideas. This is also a real thing, not a hypothetical. Is that too far to bridge?

Not sure on the actual specific philosophy here, but in general no.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

When I saw the numbers of people that voted one of my first thoughts was very conspiracy theorish, considering how EVERY SINGLE accusation is a confession.

I'm not going to lie, I was in a similar boat for a few minutes while coming to grips with the reality that we're now faced with. Especially with the public things they've already done to suppress votes.

Corrik7 posted...

You just fail to see that they don't think he has done those things so they aren't saying they are supporting such things. If you accused them of doing such, their response would simply be that he didn't do that in the first place. (Most likely).

I don't fail to see this at all, I'm asking how the hell you bridge with someone like that? I can try to show the evidence but it's always up to them to accept it or not. If they refuse, there is nothing you can do. It's a difference of reality, impossible to bridge.

A difference of opinion at least feels possible to bridge, so I'd like to get some ideas for that from your theory. Because like I said, I literally need your theory in real life.

292? the chart doesn't even have Nevada, Alaska, and Arizona. all are Trump wins, it's ending 312. that's outperforming his victory against Hillary and Biden over him.

interesting scrolling chart by financial times that shows the way voter turnout looked, aka, why he's got the popular vote too:
https://x.com/FT/status/1854089248896323820

and, using the data they have, there's a chart of how he tracks demographically compared to 2020:
https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1854180325783687443

...to show that only those 65+ and white college women went more blue. every other demo, red.

Wanglicious posted...

292? the chart doesn't even have Nevada, Alaska, and Arizona. all are Trump wins, it's ending 312. that's outperforming his victory against Hillary and Biden over him.

interesting scrolling chart by financial times that shows the way voter turnout looked, aka, why he's got the popular vote too:
https://x.com/FT/status/1854089248896323820

and, using the data they have, there's a chart of how he tracks demographically compared to 2020:
https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1854180325783687443

...to show that only those 65+ and white college women went more blue. every other demo, red.

Does this change when more of California comes in? How much of California is left?

How is the House and Senate looking atm?

Are there any breakdowns by party affiliation?

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

Do we think that this choice was on Biden himself? Because I definitely don't. I think Biden would have stayed in there if not receiving a ton of pressure from the party.

I mean sure

But there were multiple reasons for that. And even assuming that he himself didn't see age deterioration issues by January, which he might not have, he's still in his 80s. I dunno

The NYT has California at 54% of votes in, so a bit more than 8 million votes left to count. Kamala is currently winning +17. Last time it was +29 for Biden and it was +30 for Hillary in 2016. This is the best Republican showing in CA since GWB lost by 10 in 2004.

https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1854228225452335384?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

AOC 2028

I will die on that hill. She has the charisma, the pendulum will swing back toward the Dems as Trump's disastrous policies hit. And she will actually get shit done.

Dang CNN just showed New York was closer to going red than Texas was to going blue.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

How is the House and Senate looking atm?

House: Not good
Senate: Worse

the charts will need to adjust for more of Cali time, it says the source is AP from 7:31 so there's time for that to change. i don't know any breakdown on party yet.

the twitter link actually bypasses financial times' paywall too so that's nice. i like their work consistently and hate when the paywall hits, though i understand. unfortunately the charts don't show up in archives so i took some screenshots, ignoring the ones they made for North Carolina and Georgia (which both showed surges of Trump):

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/afe82993.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/4/4c229fdd.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/7/7782b8ad.png

finally in terms of issues this is an easy bar chart they made:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/d/d74f64b6.png

it's literally immigration and the economy.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

How is the House and Senate looking atm?

Senate is Republican. Just seeing waiting to see how far. At least 52 seats. Maybe up to 55.

House looks red but too early to call. Gonna be a very small margin whichever way it is.

Corrik7 posted...

Dang CNN just showed New York was closer to going red than Texas was to going blue.

oh NY was closer than expected for sure. blue, yes, but only because of a lot of NYC. if it shifts red more though.... yeah. long island meanwhile was just pure Trump.

but dude, look at Jersey. 51%.
if that state flips Republican next time i would not be surprised. they've always teased it, hell Chris Christie was a Republican after all, but it's a shockingly close margin there.

Wanglicious posted...

it's literally immigration and the economy.

The tiny sliver of foreign policy is so sad

Dancedreamer posted...

AOC 2028

I will die on that hill. She has the charisma, the pendulum will swing back toward the Dems as Trump's disastrous policies hit. And she will actually get shit done.

My prediction is that DNC is going to fully commit to backing Gavin Newsome for 2028.

Wanglicious posted...

...to show that only those 65+ and white college women went more blue. every other demo, red

What a truly depressing statistic. There really is no hope for the future without hoping the next 4 years are so bad people will shift back.

Harris conceded.

Corrik7 posted...

Senate is Republican. Just seeing waiting to see how far. At least 52 seats. Maybe up to 55.

House looks red but too early to call. Gonna be a very small margin whichever way it is.

Which one has the most control over changing the constitution?

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Which one has the most control over changing the constitution?

The normal route is 2/3 of both chambers, and then 3/4 of all the states. There is an alternative route which has never been used before which is 2/3 of all the states calling a convention and then 3/4 of the states approving the change the convention produces.

Wanglicious posted...

oh NY was closer than expected for sure. blue, yes, but only because of a lot of NYC. if it shifts red more though.... yeah. long island meanwhile was just pure Trump.

but dude, look at Jersey. 51%.
if that state flips Republican next time i would not be surprised. they've always teased it, hell Chris Christie was a Republican after all, but it's a shockingly close margin there.

It looked like a legitimate potential flip when biden was still in tbqh according to polling. NH, Minnesota, and NH all looked like potential flips or close to them when Biden remained.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Which one has the most control over changing the constitution?

Constitution can only be changed by amendments by 3/4 of the governors, which will never get past that threshold again.

Looks like the above was wrong.

2/3 of both senate and house. 2/3 of state legislatures. Needed to propose amendments convention.

3/4 of state legislatures needed to pass it.

red_sox_777 posted...

The normal route is 2/3 of both chambers, and then 3/4 of all the states. There is an alternative route which has never been used before which is 2/3 of all the states calling a convention and then 3/4 of the states approving the change the convention produces.

So constitutional changes likely not on the table yet?

So what happens if a state codifies something, but the nation bans it? Just curious

Michigan dropped some more votes and Trump's lead is down to 7,324 votes. 0.2% gap. I guess they're probably finished though except for a small number of overseas military votes.

It's increasingly looking like the Democrats actually had an Electoral College advantage this year of as much as +1. Wisconsin is probably going to be the median state, and Trump is winning by just under 1% while the national popular vote looks to land around R+2.

swordz9 posted...

So what happens if a state codifies something, but the nation bans it? Just curious

This is actually hard to do because of the 10th amendment. State wins almost all the time. But some types of national laws can override the state, usually using an overreach of the interstate commerce clause.

But also the 14th amendment forces all states to comply with the national Constitution, so any SCOTUS judgments also apply to states. This is the case with things like Roe and Obergfell which ruled it unconstitutional to ban abortion and same sex marriage.

As a Michigander I'm very disappointed we went red this election. We'll im disappointed about the whole damn thing.

swordz9 posted...

So what happens if a state codifies something, but the nation bans it? Just curious

If it's an area in which the federal Congress has power under the constitution, the supremacy clause provides for the federal law to control over the state law. If it's in an area in which the federal Congress is not vested with authority, the federal law gets declared unconstitutional by the courts and the state law controls. Since FDR the courts have taken a very expansive view of federal jurisdiction and hardly any federal laws have gotten struck down as beyond the authority of Congress, but conservative jurists have been working to change this for the last 30 or so years and have recently made some progress.