Board 8 > Politics Containment 445: Game Over - Return of Trump

(+) Yeah! (+)

ffmasterjose posted...

As a Michigander I'm very disappointed we went red this election. We'll im disappointed about the whole damn thing.

Same since we had just went all blue. Now all I can do is wait for the face eating because Ive lost all faith in Americans

So what's it look like if repugnants blanket ban abortion and all forms of contraception?

Trump could very well do something this term that causes all the states to agree to pass an anti-immunity amendment

swordz9 posted...

So what happens if a state codifies something, but the nation bans it? Just curious

depends if the federal government wants to enforce it or not basically. they have greater power and greater ways to make the laws apply (e.g., interstate commerce clause). weed for example, is federally illegal but many states have made it legal. feds have said they aren't enforcing the law, so states are OK. it becomes very messy when they get involved like this, which is why they don't typically like to do it.

abortion would be the current hot topic that you might be referencing, national ban is a non starter. that's gonna be left to the states. it's the 2nd biggest issue for democrats, has repeatedly had the republican lose in head to head matchups since Roe was overturned, and they wouldn't have the numbers even with a majority of both houses. if they want to lose badly in 2026, having the conversation at all would be the way to do it.

Reality Show Presidency #2: Electric Boogaloo

foolm0r0n posted...

Trump could very well do something this term that causes all the states to agree to pass an anti-immunity amendment

Too many states required for that.

The following states would never agree:
Texas
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Montana
Wyoming
South Dakota
North Dakota
Idaho
Utah

What's the Governor situation looking like? From what I can find it's 27 r, 23 D

Dancedreamer posted...

AOC 2028

I will die on that hill. She has the charisma, the pendulum will swing back toward the Dems as Trump's disastrous policies hit. And she will actually get shit done.

No, I think it's gotta be Pete.

He's got Obama energy, he did that Jubilee and absolutely crushed it, I think he's the way forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YE1f3n_n9UA

red_sox_777 posted...

Michigan dropped some more votes and Trump's lead is down to 7,324 votes. 0.2% gap. I guess they're probably finished though except for a small number of overseas military votes.

It's increasingly looking like the Democrats actually had an Electoral College advantage this year of as much as +1. Wisconsin is probably going to be the median state, and Trump is winning by just under 1% while the national popular vote looks to land around R+2.

I have trump up by 1.5% and 84k votes according to NYT.

In my personal opinion, abortion and contraception are obviously not issues of interstate commerce. They also don't fit into any of the other enumerated powers of Congress. So a federal law banning them would be unconstitutional.

However, SCOTUS, and especially the liberal justices, have frequently treated essentially everything as interstate commerce, so I wouldn't rule out that they would say this is. But the conservative justices would have to do a 180 degree turn on the biggest thing they've worked toward for the last 30 years (limiting the commerce clause). I think it's more likely we would get a 9-0 opinion providing more clear limitations on the commerce clause and striking down the abortion ban.

This country may never be ready for any woman or minority. Looking back I have no clue how Obama did it. I guess it's that swagger and charisma, but I don't know if I'll ever get excited for anyone but a Christian, straight, white man again.

Excited as in, I can believe in their victory in this county.

I know two things:

-The next Democratic president will be a straight white man.

-The first woman president will be a Republican.

These statements are not endorsements of this state of affairs!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

No, I think it's gotta be Pete.

He's got Obama energy, he did that Jubilee and absolutely crushed it, I think he's the way forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YE1f3n_n9UA

I hate that I'm very close to agreeing with this as the best option as of now. I'm still hoping for mystery candidate X but I don't know who that would even be.

I'm most worried there is a large swatch of the country that are just going to go "ew its a gay guy" and refuse to vote for him. But I have greatly changed my opinion on him since 2016, he now definitely has a national presence, and he has a level of charisma sorely lacking by 99% of the big democratic names. He connects with voters in an authentic way and you can see that in that video that has been making the rounds.

But I think he's going to run into resistance from the same kind of people who didn't want to support Kamala.

Current race and possibly even gender politics in this country stem from progressive movements from Obama's tenure in office. Even then I think it's useless to fixate on THAT over issues people apparently actually care about like, uh, inflation.

I dont believe there will ever be a Republican woman President. Republicans hate women so theyll never let one rule over them

LightningStrikes posted...

I know two things:

-The next Democratic president will be a straight white man.

-The first woman president will be a Republican.

These statements are not endorsements of this state of affairs!

I still think race and gender have little if anything to do with it beyond Trump never losing his status as the anti-PC (meaning political correctness) candidate, which he most definitely had in 2020 too.

Eh, a woman who says the right things would be more electable in their eyes. So i do agree the first woman president will be a republican.

Dancedreamer posted...

Too many states required for that.

You don't understand, I am talking about something like inciting riots that cause bloodbaths in major red states. He will be immune from the J6 riot due to the new SCOTUS judgment, so it is now a weapon he has in his pocket to use in a lot of places. Murdering civilians using the National Guard (in an official capacity) is also an option.

That kind of thing could actually convince some of the countryside states to pass an amendment.

I can't see DNC backing anyone but Gavin Newsome for the next election. He's everything they want and has family ties to Pelosi. There's no way they're not going with him in four years.

i think that historically tracks really. even with the UK, there's a constant trend that women on the right get to become PM. just internationally, if you're right wing woman you're electable to the highest office, if you're a left wing woman you aren't. obviously that some exceptions exist but that's by far the way that trend goes.

There have been 5 female heads of government in first world countries with a population over 50 million - all from conservative parties.

Margaret Thatcher (UK)
Angela Merkel (Germany)
Theresa May (UK)
Liz Truss (UK)
Giorgia Meloni (Italy)

That's right, between the USA, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, there have been a grand total of 0 female heads of government from a left of center party.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Pete has no chance. This country cant elect a woman yet, no chance they elect an openly gay dude.

Pete would crush. Gay guys are unsurprisingly immune to misogyny.

All Trumpers under 40 love gay guys because they have driven so much of the young nationalist movement. They could very well switch to Pete depending on who the next R guy is.

That guy in the Jubilee vid who was fawning over Pete but ultimately decided on Trump is the new median young voter.

Wanglicious posted...

no that part is still intact, there's a notable gender gap between men and women, especially in breakdowns that include race/ethnicity.

it's just that said gap is Trump +4 for white women. so there's a notable gap of like 15-20% between white men and women, hispanic men and women, and black men and women (unsure of asian, haven't seen yet and i can see that be far closer), but she just performed worse on damn near every racial/ethnic demographic. gender gap is still huge though!

Tbf I figured more that women would be less willing to vote for Trump after everything, which did not happen in the least. I can definitely imagine abortion being comparatively less of a pressing issue than the economy for some though.

Id happily vote in a non-conservative woman, but otherwise a woman is literally never going to get my vote for President. Doesnt look like the Conservative Party will get any less insane during my lifetime so theyll never receive my vote at any level even if my choices are them over nothing or them over dying

AOC could win if the DNC backs her imo

biggest if in the world tho. we know how they feel about actual progressives

red_sox_777 posted...

There have been 5 female heads of government in first world countries with a population over 50 million - all from conservative parties.

Margaret Thatcher (UK)
Angela Merkel (Germany)
Theresa May (UK)
Liz Truss (UK)
Giorgia Meloni (Italy)

That's right, between the USA, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, there have been a grand total of 0 female heads of government from a left of center party.

You are forgetting Tansu iller from Turkey (yes its first world, or at least was)

also from a conservative party.

In the case of some of these (definitely the UK) its as simple an answer as the trade union movement being male dominated. Definitely thinking that the next Labour PM will be a woman though.

swordz9 posted...

I dont believe there will ever be a Republican woman President. Republicans hate women so theyll never let one rule over them

The potential sleight of hand here is that a Republican woman can claim to be subservient to God (who is of course a man) while a Democrat can't really pull that off.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I dont think you understand how well California sucks, true or not, has resonated everywhere else. Its all wed hear about.

I absolutely understand that.

And I'm not saying it's the right choice for the DNC to make. I'm saying that this is the option they would be most likely to go with.

Also I think its worth noting we've only run women over 60. Never one under 45. AOC is young, attractive, has charisma, has good policies, knows how to appeal to voters, comes across as authentic, has a good relationship with unions, has worked a real job that nobody can deny ("No, she wasn't ACTUALLY a bartender, yeah let's see them argue that). She gets things done. Get her some foreign policy experience in the next couple of years.

Will the DNC support her? Probably not. But the RNC didn't want Trump. They might try to install Newsom, but I don't think it works.

Dancedreamer posted...

Also I think its worth noting we've only run women over 60. Never one under 45.

In recent history, the US only elects people over 70 years old, and always the older one of the two parties. We just love very old people. That will be the future strategy.

AriaOfBolo posted...

thanks, I was completely unaware and now I feel much better about staring death in the face

Sorry I'm just frustrated, but I recognize your situation is so much worse.

Jimmy Carter 2028

Dancedreamer posted...

has worked a real job that nobody can deny ("No, she wasn't ACTUALLY a bartender, yeah let's see them argue that).

Unfortunately lots of people absolutely don't see bartending as a real job. Doubt it matters much though.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

Jimmy Carter 2028

I'd love that for us but the real comedy option is to run Biden again.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

Jimmy Carter 2028

Still better than what we just elected! Hell Jimmys corpse even would be better than what we just elected because at least he was human

Kamala just turned 60 fwiw. A tad older, but perfectly normal and even youngish in todays old man era. Also I'd argue shes attractive

I do wonder if having a fairly quickly aging population causes this though

Hillary 2028
finish the story

they're probably going to wind up pushing josh shapiro

unironically bernie will probably still be fit for office in 4 years. that man hasn't aged a day in like 30 years. how does he do it

The Democrats could reprise the William Jennings Bryan strategy and run the same candidate 3 times.

ivysnow posted...

they're probably going to wind up pushing josh shapiro

This seems more likely than newsome tbh.

But I feel like White Supremacists would have a bigger problem with a Jewish man on the ticket than a black woman.

foolm0r0n posted...

Pete would crush. Gay guys are unsurprisingly immune to misogyny.

All Trumpers under 40 love gay guys because they have driven so much of the young nationalist movement. They could very well switch to Pete depending on who the next R guy is.

That guy in the Jubilee vid who was fawning over Pete but ultimately decided on Trump is the new median young voter.

Pete would dominate, especially current day, "experienced in Fed government" Pete.

Watch that Jubilee video, he absolutely talks circles (and charms the hell out of) those folks.

Also, and this is cringey as hell to say, but he "presents" as straight. He is obviously gay with a public husband and all that, but he speaks like Obama. He's a great speaker, he can do it.

Pete would lose. Hes unelectable.

Pete was in charge of Transportation during the East Palestine disaster and all the Boeing mishaps and barely did shit about them Buttigieg would get fucking curbstomped

Latino men have a problem voting for anything they see as less than manly you'd get murdered in that demographic again. Possibly even harder.

WazzupGenius00 posted...

Pete was in charge of Transportation during the East Palestine disaster and all the Boeing mishaps and barely did shit about them Buttigieg would get fucking curbstomped

Damn I wish I lived in a world where mishandling disasters made you unelectable.

It, like everything else, only applies to individuals who don't have an R next to their name

I guess there's always Andy Beshear