Lurker > Forceful_Dragon

Kirby321 posted...

Blade strikes me as the kind of guy to absolutely go for a NK deliberately just to fuck with town.

It was absolutely a ballsy Blade play that won them Bloodborne Mafia so it's not impossible. But it's also just not as likely as the others imo.

We still have to assume there are 3 scum and make sure to lynch scum either today or tomorrow. Even if Blade is one of them I think he'll have a scummate that's easier to hit.

Or you just can't even understand why what you're proposing doesn't fit from a town perspective because you don't have a town perspective.

PunishedBen posted...

My death would confirm them if we all stayed silent about it.

It would NOT.

Do you know for a FACT that scum team does not have access to a strongman or any ability that can deal with a BP? If you do then you know more than me.

Because your entire plan hinges on something you should have no way to know for sure as well as the assumption that you successful convinced them all that your were a bulletproof neighborizer who required them to cast a spell on your behalf to make the BP part real.

And hell, with two other claimed ways to stop a nightkill what would it have even meant to the people you lied to if there was a night with no kill? They will all have it in their head that you might have been responsible which would lead them down a false rabbit hole?

It's a colossally awful play with next to no redeeming logic.

A REAL town neighborizer breadcrumbs their target and if they are going to lie they tell a lie that will draw a bullet if the person they neighborized is scum.

So yeah, it has very little to do with your flavor of Buddy (which is still awful and wrong) and everything to do with your play of the role and logical justification around it.

I did want to come back to this post really quick because it made me laugh so much.

UltimaterializerX posted...

They both fall into the category of sending messages at night.

One role spends the entire night talking to the person they targeted.

The person I target receives a PM from the host letting them know they received my love. I do not "send messages".

UltimaterializerX posted...

If I had either role, Id counterclaim the other.

Then you should probably have counter claimed Blade immediately this game. You both claimed roles that have a "c" and an "o" in them. Practically identical!

##Vote: Ben

->

I don't really feel like there should be a world where none of the 6 vanilla claims were scum, but I genuinely feel more confident about Ben than MI. And hey if there's 3 scum then it is likely both, might as well go with the one who's claim and justification gives me the ick.

7. Kirby

Kirby is nearly the least likely person to be scum and the hardest to make a case against, second only to myself. Kirby being scum requires some bizarre things. Either scum had TWO abilities that can roleblock (in which case town's only protection becomes doctor blade) or Lopen was Jailer and the role that vanished Lopen actually allowed Kirby to steal the abilities. In the show the evil study group want to send the regular study group members over to their evil timeline so they can replace them in the good timeline. So perhaps the shot Lopen was hit with did exactly that and Lopen was Elroy, Jailer. So not only would one of those things have to be true, but then Kirby would have needed to conspire against his scummate on night 1 after losing Knightz' incredible role on day 1.

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8. MI

The final Vanilla. A scum MI could be any number of roles, most likely would be scum jack since it best explains a redirect that we've only seen the effect of on 1 night out of 5. It feels unlikely that there could be an every night redirector and not hit it more than once. MI was Jailed on night 3 when SBell died which is good, but it feels like MI could slot as scum with virtually anyone else. that's the nature of a vanilla claim i suppose but there isn't really anything that would conflict with the other actions we've seen that would necessarily prevent a pairing.

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9. Ulti

Similar to Blade, the case against Ulti comes squarely down to Lopen. With the lack of a reliable information role (Sbell only halfway counts and it's very situational) the balance of town NEEDS a cop. So scum ulti absolutely requires cop lopen and there's no debating that point. Now if we assume that's what happens then the claimed "cop scans" from there do not look great for Ulti. He continually "scanned" people who weren't even the most logical choice to be lynched the following day, so he was merely providing extraneous information that wasn't really going to affect the upcoming lynch. If town that makes for terrible night action decisions, and if scum it implies he has deliberately been avoiding "scanning" his partner, unless his partner is Ctes in which case he faked an inno scan day 1 counting on there not being a cop source besides Lopen to contradict him.

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And those are the cases. So if I had to order of who i think that makes scum?

Ben > Ctes > MI >>> Ulti > Blade >> Chang >>> IGCD > Kirby

What I think would help is attempting to make the case for everyone still alive to be scum. Logistically, what would it take? There's only 9 of us left so without further ado:

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1. Ben

For Ben to be scum he would have to be a Scum neighborizer. No one can refuse the fact that he is a neighborizer, it has been independently confirmed, but neighborizers by definition are not confirmed to be town, so he could be scum. He has also never been Jailed so he could have submitted any one of the night kills since night 1. He also said that the neighborizing action was a day action, so he could potentially be responsible for non killing night actions as well, such as vote suppression or redirection. I know that feels like a lot, but the two scum roles we've seen so far have both been completely stacked so it's feasible that it's just a small (4?) scum team that all have pretty busted roles.

It's also worth reminding that when it was time to full claim he attempted to lie about his claim, multiple times. Not only did he tell his neighbors to not say anything when he claimed vanilla, but he put them through some weird exercise of reciting something so he could "be bulletproof". Something he first said was true and then walked back after it justifiably made him suspicious. The justification for "tricking them into thinking he was bulletproof" still doesn't make sense.

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2. Blade

For blade to be scum then Lopen will have had to be doctor with Blade claiming Lopen's role. In which case all the claimed doc saves will have been fake. Now that Kirby's night 5 target flipped vanilla that would mean that Blade only pretended to save IGCD and scum NK'd instead. Now scum might have been assuming ctes (if town) was going to bet his life on IGCD's death so the logic might have been to fake the doc save combined with a no kill to both "confirm" Blade is actually doctor and not even lose a night kill thanks to Ctes' bet.

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3. Chang

Chang is definitely a lawyer, so he would have to be a scum lawyer. The last time a scum lawyer was used it was used with the caveat that it could only be used to take out a scummate. Scum put wallz in the dirt day 2 so for him to be scum it would have to have been a bus. Now that's not so much of a reach on account of Kirby JK'd wallz night 1, so it would have been as good a time as any to use it. Perhaps the best time even since the beginning of day 2 was met with chang getting a lot of suspicious for thinking Knightz was town. So in a scum Chang scenario, Chang decided NOT to lawyer Knightz day 1, because Knightz' role was too strong and was worth trying to save, but once it was clear wallz was likely going to be the lynch without or without his case there was no reason not to commit do it day 2. Chang has also never been jailed so there is nothing that prevents him from having submitted a kill or some other night action.

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4. Ctes

Ah yes, Starburns the "bookie". He has demonstrated an ability to be unable to vote, but thanks to bad (or unlucky?) choices he has failed to provide any proof that the bets he is claiming even exist. I hate the flavor/role combination, I hate the terrible way he dragged out his claim yesterday, I hate that he seemed to think scum would somehow benefit from knowing about a bookie existing as he described when it legitimately seems to be the opposite. Not only would scum have to continue to potentially play around 2 saving roles in Kirby/Blade but now they would also have to consider who ctes thinks will die to try and prevent him from getting something good. There was no reason to painstakingly resist claiming this role if it's real. But in this scenario ctes is scum so the bookie role likely doesn't exist. Just ctes, likely Evil troy, having some kind of no vote/no voice condition that fights Evil Troy perfectly.

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5. FD

I'm not scum. I'm not and I know I'm not. I know the rest of you lot don't have access to my PMs so feel free to make the case against me, but I assure you it's wrong. It would not only involve regular pierce being scum with the evil study group members, but also a lot of questionable scum team decisions that I would never sign off in. Lopen's vanishing? Not in a million years. Lopen was instrumental to my victory in Valentine's mafia and I was very disappointed/worried when he got eliminated that game. If I am on a team that has a day kidnap/janitor/whatever then it is being used on Red or Blade or Death, full stop. Death and Red were both town, so the only way I'm scum is with Blade and leaving the other two alive was a tactic to justify Blade not being targeted at night. I don't know who signs off on the Lopen vanishing and the night kills that we've seen, but it sure as hell isn't me.

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6. IGCD

IGCD's sidequest was either a true thing that occurred or it was an elaborate ruse. In either case him being scum requires him to actually have access to a dayvig shot, which would be a rarity for scum. If I were thinking more clearly yesterday I would have asked IGCD to "##Kill" somebody just to prove the he didn't already have the shot, in which case the 3x hammer thing could potentially be fluff he added on to have an excuse not to make a decision for 3-5 days. The other thing that would have to be true is that IGCD would have to have gambited on town not having it's own regular ass day vig to shoot him as soon as he claimed. Now ctes (if truthful) may have access to a dayvig shot, but only after succeeding on a very unlikely bet with his own life at stake. I believe he also claimed his shot and his hammer conditions before Lopen disappeared so it's not like Lopen could have been day vig which allowed him the safety of a claim. So yeah, IGCD scum requires all of that and it also requires either a no kill last night or a kill on death.

PunishedBen posted...

Now that I have to be extra careful with clears though, I dont think its as solid as what Ulti did which got a telling reaction out of Knightz and caused the bad situation he was now in. Now that he has already committed to claiming a flavor, anyone could have asked the question you asked because it would have been on the back of everyone's minds at that point. Better to get ahead of it then ignore it if you were scum.

Yes, but if I'm his scummate then before I say anything I'm reaching out to knightz and telling him exactly what to say as a response. He had a role that I would literally have been bending myself backwards trying to save for even just a single night.

I would say my worst take on Knightz day 1 was that I thought taco(mzero) was more likely to be scum between the pair of them, but I legitimately felt like they were both scum that were just imploding.

PunishedBen posted...

And he's the reason that Knightz get stressed out enough to claim Luis Guzman before having his flavor prepared.

Except I was the one who pressed him on flavor justification which turned Knightz flub into a full on rout. Ulti prompted the claim, sure, but I attacked it's validity.

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Kirby321 posted...

Eh? I don't see how pineapple vendor and neighborizer are anywhere close to being equal...

They aren't, and Ulti conveniently fails to realize that I think Ben is scum.

Why would I need to "counter" a claim that is nothing like mine, and why would I attack it based upon 'role counter logic' when I'm already attacking it based on it's OWN merits (which suck).

Nothing Ulti just said was correct. He might think it is because I just had a busy fucking day and so he hasn't seen me in over 12 hours and he has a goldfish memory. But this game is over 2 weeks old now and he does not read old topics. Of course he can't remember even the shit that happened on day 4 and 5 that completely contradicts what he's saying.

But I'm not gonna bother refuting it point by point. He's either scum with Lopen's role, and nothing he says is relevant, or he's town in a late game scenario and his name is Ulti, and nothing he says is relevant. I'm curious how many people he's been convinced are scum today. Over/Under 6?

"and here you are crying about it, you little shit"

UltimaterializerX posted...

But I think FD is third party.

If I were 3p (I'm not) then how would I win?

I've already committed to not sending my pineapples to anyone new, so that can't be it.

As long as you're making questionable scan decisions, I wish you had just scanned me at some point and we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

Just fyi not only am I in the office today, I'm stuck fielding phone calls rather than having the luxury of paperwork duty. I'll do what I can, but probably won't be active again until this evening.

htaeD posted...

And Kirby has already shown to be unpredictable about who he keeps.

I agree that scum probably didn't no kill, but that's because I think ctes is scum.

If Ctes is town then there are two reasons to no-kill. Either to gamble on the jail target and frame whoever it was OR to get Ctes to whiff on his gamble with the less likely no kill.

But the fact that we have two different methods of kill prevention being claimed means there will always be uncertainty. But if we're going to continue to get nights with no kill then it's worth the ambiguity.

"agreeable and willing to be shot" ulti makes me nervous, lol

Gonna head out to a mystery movie in a bit, but it doesn't seem like too much is going to happen until we get the shot + flip. Until then we don't know what we don't know.

We're living in several potential multiverses right now depending on 3 scum or 2 scum and depending on scum flip or town flip on whoever IGCD shoots (still assuming it'll be Death, but it's not up to me).

If someone wants to map out all the options, then great, but that feels like a lot of work and half of them will collapse once we learn the flip so might as well wait before we speculate.

You couldn't have posted that 1 minute sooner and saved me the effort? -_-

Meow1000 posted...

And how is FD confirmed not evil-Pierce

I'm sure you'll take it with a grain of salt if I'm the one clarifying this, but Evil Pierce never dispensed canisters of frozen "love", only Regular Pierce.

But again, Evil pierce legitimately only existed for the briefest moment. So sudden was his introduction and departure from the show that I wasn't even the only person who forgot it happened. Hell, if you read the wikipedia plot entry for that episode the part where Evil Pierce shows up isn't even mentioned:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Introduction_to_Finality

PunishedBen posted...

The theory that he is Troy says it :/ That was the day he could suddenly vote

Yeah but that theory was based upon HIM saying he scanned guilty after failing a reputation vote. For all I know that's not even part of it, I was just theorizing his role based upon the information he was providing. The loss of vote has been confirmed several times, but not the loss of reputation.

Meow1000 posted...

A Death townflip would essentially confirm I stopped the kill and that Ulti only claimed the scan on me because he knows I need to die for it.

And in that townflip case you burn both Ulti and Ctes to the ground without any hesitation at all.

Ultimately I guess it's up to IGCD who he's gonna shoot.

It feels like we learn a ton from a Death flip either way. Best case scenario he flips godfather, but even if he flips town we learn that igcd must have been the target last night and that you prevented it.

But I still wouldn't be upset if IGCD wanted to shoot the guy who also claims to have access to a vig shot. But I guess death and Ctes can't BOTH be scum unless Ulti is also scum. Cop would be pointless if there were two innocent scanning scums.

Then again we've the night kills have been repeatedly avoiding killing claimed protection. That would imply either the protection is lying, or the scanner is lying. Scanner can claim he's still alive because the protection never died so of course scum wouldn't aim for him.

That would still result in some really convoluted play in Ulti's part N4 as I mentioned yesterday so it doesn't feel likely.

PunishedBen posted...

Remember that Red and Ctes were swapped though. Surely scum didnt try to make Ulti scan a guilty Ctes instead of an innocent, right?

Who says ctes even really scanned guilty n4?

PunishedBen posted...

It was me. He asked how I would use the ability, so I looked over the role again and said he should aim to win the double vote. I dont feel like scum Ctes would be able to pull out a double vote. And it would be pretty hard to believe they would have access to one. So i wanted him to prove he could double vote because that could prove him town. Not just to me but the whole game. A prosty result would only get to happen a day from now and it would just be another question if we can even trust the result or not. A double vote is host confirmation that he can do what he says he can do.

That's fair, but if he's Evil Troy as I've suggested then he never has to "guess correctly" and he can remove his own vote by choosing to scan innocent whenever he wants.

The only thing we've learned is that if Ctes is town, none of us will ever go to Vegas with him.

changmas posted...

i went and checked, ctes unvoted before Lopen vanished day 1 and then never voted again

Look at me and my boomer reflexes taking 17 seconds longer than you -_-

changmas posted...

WAIT HOLY SHIT DIDNT HE NOT HAVE A VOTE DOWN ON DAY 1

ctesjbuvf posted...

Well not by the end because we were considerate with not hammering Knightz so IGCD could be last, but you should see in votals that I could vote that day.

Just went back and check, your only vote and unvote came about 3 hours before Lopen vanished.

Not to say that it's definitely related, but you did not even attempt to vote on day 1 after that happened.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Last. two?

Shouldnt there be 3 left?

It is at worst 3 (because 4 is not possible). Only 2 is possible because there have been multiple ways claimed for town to unalive themselves but we really should not be assuming it's only 2.

I think I really just want to live in a world where Kirby successfully jailed the scum sending the kill twice in the same game.

Meow1000 posted...

Option 5: Death is scum bus and was planning to use his bus to prevent IGCD from being saved.

Shit yeah. I guess I have it assumed in my head that bus can't be an every night ability or we'd have seen it's effect before Night 4.

So the 4 options are clarified:

1) IGCD was the NK target
2) Death was the Scum who submitted NK
3) Death was the NK target
4) Scum decided to NK

Now I don't know if I want IGCD to shoot Death or Ulti more

Okay I think that's all the actions. Spreadsheet update:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1586547f.jpg

TotallyNotMI posted...

I don't see any reason for kirby to not reveal his block yet

Yeah, not anymore. I think if we allowed some discussion before any night actions were revealed there might have been a point to it, but now he might as well just say.

What if we let IGCD shoot ulti, then we'll know one way or the other if we can trust the scans and still have a lynch today?

Kirby321 posted...

Good grief Blade if you could just stop obsessing over Ulti for just one day.

FD, I dunno why you want us to wait when Blade already mentioned that he protected IGCD, but let me know when I can reveal my night action.

Evidently all the other actions have been revealed so you might as well say who you jailed. Thought there might have been a point to waiting and see if anyone TMI'd but oh well

changmas posted...

I did in fact receive it, no special text for getting a second one or anything.

just wanted to check for redirection

Good, good.

If I had to bet I'd say it was likely a single use thing, but I still don't fully understand blowing it that night on red/ctes rather than using it to kill protection.

Meow1000 posted...

Chang isn't hard confirmed a damn thing.

Nearly hard confirmed. More than Ben and those were my two options other than trying to send it to Ctes again.

...damn, maybe I should have tried to send it to ctes again.

Did you get it at least, Chang?

changmas posted...

FD, who did you send the cannister to?

Sent it to you. You're hard confirmed town (imo) and I said I'd start sending it to people I'd already sent it to before, didn't see any reason not to go through with that.

Running through the options here.

1) Blade prevented a kill by saving the NK target (and should not reveal who yet)
2) Kirby prevented a kill by jailing the NK target (and should not reveal who yet)
3) Kirby prevented a kill by jailing the Scum who submitted the NK (and should not reveal who yet)
4) Scum decided to NK, perhaps to try to mess with Ctes

Each of those presumes the person involved is in fact town.

Inno scan on blade rules out a Blade/Death scum team which is great. The math is gonna help us out a lot I thihnk. bit curious why Blade and not MI though.

Fuck yeah, someone did their job last night.

Pretty shocked at the red flip, his early game did not feel town and so even when he started playing better that felt like he was trying to make up for his bad start.

So ideally games from the same dev team(s) will have enough overlap that it reduces the amount of work for lets call them "adjacent" titles, and hopefully adding additional understanding that will apply to even further titles?

There it is

IfGodCouldDie posted...

It's a day vig that I earn.

I didn't remember this either. I thought the last time it came up you left it ambiguous.

Kirby321 posted...

However, we have the numbers for it, assuming there's at most 2 scum.

I think it's reckless to assume 2 scum, we should always assume worst case.

Didn't see the new topic, church is still just letting out.

Repost:

Meow1000 posted...

I'd actually argue that the second person who talked about that argument gets major scum EV for it. Scum generally wouldn't be the first to say it, but they'd quickly respond to the first town who did.

Who was second anyway

Idk where I fell, but I posted the screenshot showing it was 24 hours to nearly the second from your post. But I town read you for it. It still feels more like a frame job than something that you would actually do.

Maybe we should be looking for a combination of players foolish enough to waste a kidnap or day EK on Lopen. I hope it's a kidnap, I like to imagine Lopen is still out there and not allowed to join DTC

Meow1000 posted...

I'd actually argue that the second person who talked about that argument gets major scum EV for it. Scum generally wouldn't be the first to say it, but they'd quickly respond to the first town who did.

Who was second anyway

Idk where I fell, but I posted the screenshot showing it was 24 hours to nearly the second from your post. But I town read you for it. It still feels more like a frame job than something that you would actually do.

Maybe we should be looking for a combination of players foolish enough to waste a kidnap or day EK on Lopen. I hope it's a kidnap, I like to imagine Lopen is still out there and not allowed to join DTC

htaeD posted...

Also Blade if MI is scum than every lynch that day was scum, so what does that even say?

It wouldn't be the first time that day 1 was between 3 scum. I've certainly fallen into the trap of believing that sort of thing is "too unlikely" before.

Leafeon13N posted...

You literally and continue to ignore that you misread the tense of my sentences.

I recognize your tense now. You made no attempt to clarify on the moment which would have been easy to do since it was CLEAR what my thoughts were.

You've also never addressed how abundantly Droid it is to declare that you'll be around during your session to respond to posts in the moment while simultaneously being unwilling to read the initial 3-4 pages.

So yeah I assumed what your post was saying was that you wouldn't really be reading the topic at all until the session was over, because that makes a LOT more sense than what you actually said.

But I'm actually done talking about it now.

I'm not getting into it again. If you want to read why I was right to question you then the first topic is still there.

Leafeon13N posted...

This is a very curious take because I'm very certain the last time i had a dumb lengthy day 1 talk with you i was town.

That was you helping me prepare for my December Disney trip, right? Not you arguing pointlessly about D&D availability and not even attempting or counter voting me for what was a genuine reaction to you appearing to be done with your session only to disappear.

Kirby321 posted...

Why Red over MI? I know everyone's gonna be busy but if you elaborated on why you place MI over Red or especially Ben, I'll go look for it. But that's rather puzzling to me.

MI was RB'd night 3 so there's that. It can no longer be combined with the ctes "vote suppression" but it's still a night where MI 100% didn't send a kill.

Also even though red has felt better since day 3 I can't shake how disingenuous and disinterested red felt before that, going back to his night 1 argument with me. If he had been killed on an early night he would have contributed absolutely nothing to the game, it does not feel like a red who was worried about being night killed.

I did feel like his reaction to the redirection was genuine though, so that gives me some doubt.

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Meanwhile Ben is everything to do with the claim. The flavor itself. The fake BP. The justification for the fake BP. I did like the way his solving felt earlier in the game, but that claim

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So it's less that MI makes me feel good, others just make me feel worse

As unfounded as the fears are I don't mind simply giving "love" to people I've already targeted.

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I'm going to be pretty busy this morning at church (extra stuff to run for sound/media/livestream on mother's Day)

Then I'll be busy after church seeing my mom.

I'm guessing I won't be there only one restricted by the day. For now my vote remains on Ctes, if it's clear that simply won't happen then Ill probably switch to red, rather than MI. I would probably still lynch Ben over MI as well. But that's where my heads at right now since there might not be much opportunity later.

With all of that said I still feel like ctes is just lying -_-

Me with a signed Chet jersey (Gonzaga) wondering if now is the best time to sell <_<