Board 8 > itt we document Character Battle X

(+) Yeah! (+)

a sampling of that FF community poll

i doubt i will ever need that
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Predictions:

Kirby's a 1 seed for some reason. He promptly gets his ass kicked in the second round.

Sephiroth overperforms, eventually getting badly SFF'd by Cloud in quarters/semis. People attribute this to the FF7 remake when it's really just an easy bracket. (Essentially, it's the inverse of 2010, when his division was stacked... or it would have been, had Crono/Missingno not happened.)
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FBike1 posted...

Kirby's a 1 seed for some reason. He promptly gets his ass kicked in the second round.

This would imply that he gets his ass kicked by an 8 or 9 seed, which is probably going to be a second-tier midcarder or even a B8 rally depending on how things worked out, neither of which are likely to beat Kirby.
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Kirby performed like a champ the last time he had a 1 seed, so unless someone gets drastically underseeded, that's unlikely.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Kirby performed like a champ the last time he had a 1 seed, so unless someone gets drastically underseeded, that's unlikely.

Kirby generally performs very well as it is. Even if he has his off-days, he doesn't lose to the kind of characters who generally get 8 or 9 seeds, unless, as you said, somebody gets stupidly underseeded.

But yeah 2005 was one of his best years. Even as one of the few who called him beating Tidus, I didn't expect the blowout to be THAT bad. And then to do as well as he did against a super-powered-up Bowser, that was impressive. And that's not even to mention the utter maiming he did against Cecil.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

-At least four characters that were never added to the suggestion database will get in.

It better not be metal sonic but yes

Metal Sonic was added though.
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Prediction: Allen ignores the nominations and gives the 1 seeds to the characters in the logo, paired so that the projected quarterfinal matchups also match the logo (Link/Mega Man, Samus/Crono, Mario/Sonic, Snake/Cloud).
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Xeybozn posted...

Prediction: Allen ignores the nominations and gives the 1 seeds to the characters in the logo, paired so that the projected quarterfinal matchups also match the logo (Link/Mega Man, Samus/Crono, Mario/Sonic, Snake/Cloud).

So

Link
Samus
Sonic
Snake

For semis yus

Link snake finals only to disappoint

Xeybozn posted...

Prediction: Allen ignores the nominations and gives the 1 seeds to the characters in the logo, paired so that the projected quarterfinal matchups also match the logo (Link/Mega Man, Samus/Crono, Mario/Sonic, Snake/Cloud).

Three of the four of those would be terrible (as well as Link vs. Samus/Crono), but at least we'd get Mario vs. Snake/Cloud.
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although we've still somehow never had a Mario/Sonic match so I guess we're long overdue
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LeonhartFour posted...

although we've still somehow never had a Mario/Sonic match so I guess we're long overdue

So Allen will put sonic in the same side as link

#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/8/2013 1:54:24 AM | message detail
It's okay. By the time we get our next Character Battle, we should have a nice, shiny new crew of Final Fantasy XV party members to get into the contest!

oh wow I called it but I am not happy about getting this right
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Underleveled posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

-At least four characters that were never added to the suggestion database will get in.

It better not be metal sonic but yes

Metal Sonic was added though.

sorry i read that as "characters added to the database won't get in"
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you know i like people discussing the contest here but i feel really guilty that there is almost no contest discussion in the contest stats topic
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He's...

going his own way...

Just...

like a black-eyed stingray...

He's born and raised with a body which screams "come on!"

Like a bitter homely kind of people that

just too much for the heart of the future...

He's out to get you gonna make you shout..

He wanna touch he wanna scan you out...

You can run all you want but no you're gonna pay...

He's put together the wrong way...

The wrong way...

He's put together the wrong way...

The wrong way...
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i own a snack bar and there's a kid here right now holding a stuffed fortnite llama

i fear for this contest
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ZenOfThunder posted...

you know i like people discussing the contest here but i feel really guilty that there is almost no contest discussion in the contest stats topic

I mean there's nothing to discuss about the contest right now
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Zen did your other topic purge already? The one for potential new characters despite noms being over?

There are two characters I don't see on that list that I remember there being some small pushes for years ago, albeit never into a full-fledged rally:

Putt-Putt (from the Putt-Putt series, not sure what his first game is)
Ifnkovhgroghprm (King's Quest: Quest for the Crown)

Also just a few names I want to throw out there as ideas, not that I think many of these characters would be super strong, but for the hell of it I stylized them to the key you used on the page. For completion's sake I included all eligible Smash Bros. characters who are neither on the list nor have already been in.

Aiden Pearce (Watch_Dogs)
Callie (Splatoon)
Corrin (Fire Emblem Fates)
Dark Pit (Kid Icarus: Uprising)
Doc Louis (Punch-Out!!)
Elena Fisher (Uncharted: Drake's Fortune)
George Stobbard (Broken Sword: Shadow of the Templars)
Greninja (Pokemon X/Y)
Inkling (Splatoon)
Isabelle (Animal Crossing: New Leaf)
Kyle Hyde (Hotel Dusk: Room 215)
Marie (Splatoon)
Mimikyu (Pokemon Sun/Moon)
Namine (Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories)
Robin (Fire Emblem: Awakening)
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ZenOfThunder posted...

i own a snack bar and there's a kid here right now holding a stuffed fortnite llama

i fear for this contest

I fear for humanity
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I may have said this in some random nom topic because I remember this discussion. I think that if the Splatoon fanbase pooled their noms into a single character (Callie or Marie), they would get enough noms to get one of them in the bracket (a weak seed, but still). But they're too split on which character is better, and most casual entrants won't have the foresight to nominate both of them, they'll just nom their one favorite. So it wouldn't surprise me if no Splatoon characters made the contest for this reason.
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Callie and Marie were both in the first group of characters Allen added to the suggestion database, so either he felt that they were important new characters to add, or they both got strong nom support on day 1.

I still don't think either will make it, but in some way they caught Allen's eye.
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i dont know who this guy is but i like him
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ZenOfThunder posted...

i own a snack bar and there's a kid here right now holding a stuffed fortnite llama

i fear for this contest

Prepare for the buttdevastation.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

i own a snack bar and there's a kid here right now holding a stuffed fortnite llama

i fear for this contest

Prepare for the buttdevastation.

Prepare for Buttnite
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Underleveled posted...

I still don't think either will make it, but in some way they caught Allen's eye.

Personally I believe that Allen added them because they were reps for a strong modern Nintendo game which is still active (and came out since the last contest).

But yeah, I think that their combined noms would have been enough to make the bracket, but I'm not expecting either of them to make it on their own.
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first day of October

seems like a good day for a teaser if nothing else

if not maybe a vote-in for POTD tomorrow
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whatever R1 match knocks chief out will get only this as a writeup
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#161 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/14/2013 6:41:54 PM | message detail
It might well just be a mix of new-age Mario weakness and end-of-gen fatigue. Galaxy 2's inevitable early loss in the next Games Contest is going to be so disappointing to see though - if you ask me, it's the best platformer ever and the biggest reason to think Nintendo's still got 'it' around.

wow every single thing in this post was right
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I say one more hour then hope for another day this week.
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so I've been fiddling around with the idea of how to compensate for the LFF/SFF matches in CBIX when in many cases we don't necessarily have a good alternative, so I looked at the percentage splits after characters were eliminated in the Battle Royal in 2006.

Battle Royal Day 2:
After Samus is eliminated (7.74%)
Cloud 23.71% --> 24.27% (+0.56%)
Link 27.41% --> 34.91% (+7.50%)
Mario 11.59% --> 11.18% (-0.41%)
Sephiroth 16.43% --> 14.87% (-1.56%)
Solid Snake 13.12% --> 14.76% (+1.64%)

Battle Royal Day 3:
After Mario is eliminated (11.18%)
Cloud 24.27% --> 23.70% (-0.57%, -0.01%)
Link 34.91% --> 42.68% (+7.77%, +15.27%)
Sephiroth 14.87% --> 16.79% (+1.92%, +0.36%)
Solid Snake 14.76% --> 16.83% (+2.07%, +3.71%)

Battle Royal Day 4:
After Sephiroth is eliminated (16.79%)
Cloud 23.70% --> 35.71% (+12.01%, +12.00%)
Link 42.68% --> 44.65% (+1.97%, +17.24%)
Solid Snake 16.83% --> 19.64% (+2.81%, +6.52%)

Battle Royal Day 5:
After Solid Snake is eliminated (19.64%)
Cloud 35.71% --> 46.07% (+10.36%, +22.36%)
Link 44.65% --> 53.93% (+9.28%, +26.52%)

The second number in parentheses is combined percentage gain where it applies.

Some of these are kind of weird, like Link getting almost 97% of Samus's percentage and Mario actually losing ground after that, but we've seen fanbases play it smart and let the weaker character get pulverized to prevent a loss, so that might be what happened there. I dunno if that would be safe to assume in instances like DK/Falco/Lightning that DK would've gotten 97% of Falco's votes (which would've resulted in him getting 61% on Lightning 1-on-1, although now that I look at it, that might be fair, but it's hard to say).

The interesting thing is that Link got around 69.5% of Mario's votes when he was eliminated, and Cloud got around 71.5% when Sephiroth was eliminated, so that's actually a pretty close split. Now Cloud doesn't SFF Sephiroth that much 1-on-1, and Link doesn't SFF Mario as hard as he does other Nintendo things, so the split might be higher for other SFF matches. 75-80% might be a good compromise for adjustments. It'll probably result in some things I don't necessarily agree with, but it'll give us something somewhat clean and perhaps interesting to look at. Going 75/25 with DK/Falco/Lightning results in DK winning with 57.6% instead. I kinda like that one, too, so who knows. The right number is probably somewhere between that. The 70/30 ratio is DK winning with 56.8%, so not a huge difference.

I guess the biggest question mark would be Crono/Magus/Pikachu.

Crono gets 97% of Magus's votes: Crono wins with 52.55%
Crono gets 80% of Magus's votes: Crono wins with 50.53%
Crono gets 75% of Magus's votes: Pikachu wins with 50.20%
Crono gets 70% of Magus's votes: Pikachu wins with 50.82%

Of course, this is all wild speculation on my part, but still.
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Get that speculation right and you'll win the contest!
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nah probably not

I mean this data is 5 years old now and a lot's changed since then
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If I go balls-to-the-wall with my bracket I would take Pikachu > Crono 1v1 without thinking twice.

Hell, I may even do it if I'm playing it safe.
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this aint a contest thing but it's good to see what overlaps most with the smash fanbase
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ZenOfThunder posted...

this aint a contest thing but it's good to see what overlaps most with the smash fanbase

The hilarious thing about those results is that Tekken is probably the most likely. Wasn't Heihachi strongly considered for Smash 4?
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Eh, I don't know that they'll go for a second fighting game rep now that they have Ryu.

It would be kind of neat if they announced a popular character like Sora for Ultimate midway through the contest just to see what would happen.
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pretty sure heihachi was a mii costume

the only reason he'd be in would be namco working it into the contract for working on smash again. i dont think he matters that much to them tho
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hahahahahahaha Kefka/L-Block round 1 yessssss

Bacon saw my topic
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Underleveled posted...

Bold predictions about the bracket. I'll be impressed if I get even 50% of these right.

-At least one non-N9er will get a 1-seed.
-Geralt will be at least a 3-seed.
-Noctis will be seeded equal to or higher than both Lightning and Tidus.
-Phoenix has a winnable R1 matchup.
-Leon Kennedy is put into a position where he could realistically make the Sweet Sixteen.
-At least four characters that were never added to the suggestion database will get in.
-No GTA characters will make the cut.
-Liquid Snake will get snubbed yet again.

-At least one non-N9er will get a 1-seed.
Technically yes.

-Geralt will be at least a 3-seed.
Yes

-Noctis will be seeded equal to or higher than both Lightning and Tidus.
Yes

-Phoenix has a winnable R1 matchup.
Yes

-Leon Kennedy is put into a position where he could realistically make the Sweet Sixteen.
In the main bracket yes, but with the Legends counted he's got no chance.

-At least four characters that were never added to the suggestion database will get in.
Off the top of my head I see Rosalina, Metal Man, Shantae and Quiet. There's definitely more but those four stuck out to me immediately. So yes.

-No GTA characters will make the cut.
Yes

-Liquid Snake will get snubbed yet again.
Yes

I did pretty well!
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It happened, Zen.

Our boys got in!
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Just as good a place to post it as any, the full list of newcomers:

2B
Aqua
Aloy
Captain Toad
Cayde-6
Chloe Price
Cuphead
D.Va
Ellie
Estelle Bright
Geralt
Godot
Goro Majima
Guile
Hat Kid
Isabelle
James Sunderland
Joel
Kazuma Kiryu
Metal Man
Metal Sonic
Monika
Monokuma
Neptune
Noctis Lucis Caelum
Primrose
Quiet
Ren Amamiya
Richter Belmont
Rosalina
Sans
Shantae
Shovel Knight
Velvet Crowe
Victor Sullivan

Also, it's Master Hand and King K. Rool's first time in a main bracket, having previously appeared in Got Villains? and Rivalry Rumble, respectively.
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rip metal sonic and metal man

i'm very happy to see them in the contest though!
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