Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket: Part 2!

(+) Yeah! (+)

KH Compilation #24 isn't gonna move the needle on Sora, etc. IMO.

now kh3 hype? time to board the train my friends we are leaving the station choo choo
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Thanks! I super missed contest season. Nerding out is fun.

Sora weirds me out. I can never tell how hyped people actually are about KH3. People are always making fun of that series these days.
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LeonhartFour posted...

I was actually kinda serious when I said Tifa being every gamer's first gamer crush actually kind of matters!

For the record, I think you should be entirely serious about this. There's a definite reason that Tifa (and Aeris, to a lesser degree) are the only FF7 characters not to decline.
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I think KH3 hype is real among RPG gamers/GameFAQs's audience now that we actually have real trailers, gameplay, and release dates and all that.

It wouldn't mean anything before we had those and it was still a joke that it was never coming out like Versus XIII/FFXV.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Furthermore, HOW ARE YOU gonna talk about characters being hype beasts and leave out Sora, who just got a PS4 release of EVERY SINGLE TITLE in his series and has probably the most anticipated game of all time coming out?

Well, I don't think the ports actually do much for characters. Those things are mostly for the benefit of people who are already fans, although if they're playing it during the contest, that helps Sora since their memories of KH will be fresh in their minds during the contest. As such, I think things like that have a very limited window of effect.

they really need to drop a KH3 trailer with all the FF characters in it during the contest though

that might actually do something since they haven't been seen at all yet
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The last few contests sucked but I'm hoping we can get into the discord for match starts this time around again.

Or wait, matches are starting at a new time now aren't they?
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LeonhartFour posted...

Well, I don't think the ports actually do much for characters. Those things are mostly for the benefit of people who are already fans, although if they're playing it during the contest, that helps Sora since their memories of KH will be fresh in their minds during the contest. As such, I think things like that have a very limited window of effect.

they really need to drop a KH3 trailer with all the FF characters in it during the contest though

that might actually do something since they haven't been seen at all yet

Oooh you know what.

I may have to rethink my Ryu > Seph pick.

Because if KH hype boosts the FF characters like it did back in 03... welp
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Or wait, matches are starting at a new time now aren't they?

8 PM ET (7 after Daylight Savings)
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Yeah, matches are starting at 6 P.M. Eastern time until time change, and then 5 P.M. after that.

If anything, trends playing out differently should be interesting to watch.
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oh wait you're right it is 8/7

'whoops'
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Oooh you know what.

I may have to rethink my Ryu > Seph pick.

Because if KH hype boosts the FF characters like it did back in 03... welp

well like I said we actually need to see them for that to matter

although for what it's worth if Sephiroth is in the game again I doubt they'd show him in a trailer
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Damn. That is going to make the board vote extremely wonky.

And FFVII will have even MORE time to rise to the heavens after it. I think this could slightly spread the day vote out too as not everyone will be asleep.

And let's be honest, there's no after school vote anymore. No one still in high school uses FAQ sites lol
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yeah day trends were very muted during CBIX compared to years past because most of us are adults at this point (even moreso now compared to five years ago)

man I just re-watched that Smash Ultimate trailer just to see the EVERYONE IS HERE Snake reveal

that moment is so well done
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LeonhartFour posted...

yeah day trends were very muted during CBIX compared to years past because most of us are adults at this point (even moreso now compared to five years ago)

man I just re-watched that Smash Ultimate trailer just to see the EVERYONE IS HERE Snake reveal

that moment is so well done

Fuck yes it was. So glad I got my pre-order in.

Snake > Sans let's do this.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77071963

vote here
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I wonder if the match time change has any effect on rallies. My memory tells me that like 6-12 is peak time for rallying potential, and I bet having matches start right in the middle kind of messes with that.
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is there an after work vote? or is it a at work vote?
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im317 posted...

is there an after work vote? or is it a at work vote?

Eh, people's work hours aren't consistent like with school. Everyone gets out of school at close to the same time (and it spread across four time zones, to boot!).

pyresword posted...

I wonder if the match time change has any effect on rallies. My memory tells me that like 6-12 is peak time for rallying potential, and I bet having matches start right in the middle kind of messes with that.

Yeah, this might have something to do with it. I wonder if Allen is hoping for a rally to get started too late for it to catch up.

Of course, Draven's first match was at night, and he still got enough of a rally to win, so whatever. Rally prevention measures only matter for the first round anyway. If anything sneaks past round 1, it's over regardless.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Of course, Draven's first match was at night, and he still got enough of a rally to win, so whatever. Rally prevention measures only matter for the first round anyway. If anything sneaks past round 1, it's over regardless.

How the fuck is he gonna make all these rally prevention measures and then put Sans up against f***ing PAC MAN?

UGHHHH
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the melancholy of ExThaNemesis
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Quarterfinals

(1) Link
(8) Mega Man

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1778-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-mega-man

He come to town.

Winner: Link
Odds: LOL

(4) Cloud Strife
(5) Crono

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3306-contest-final-link-crono-snake-cloud

This is one of the few Noble Nine matchups we've never seen 1-on-1 (the others being Mega Man/Cloud, Mega Man/Samus, Crono/Samus, and still somehow, Sonic/Mario)! 2002 is the only time Crono has ever been in Cloud's ballpark (and Super Mario Sunshine/Planet Gamecube probably had a lot to do with that). Does he have a chance now?! Well, we just talked about how bad Cloud was last contest, so who knows! Crono was worse, of course, so there's that. Chrono Trigger looked clearly stronger than Final Fantasy VII in 2015, too (although, again, characters =/= games).

This might be the first time in 15 years you can say Crono's chances of victory are not 0, but I still favor Cloud until we see otherwise.

Winner: Cloud
Odds: 75%

(3) Solid Snake
(6) Sonic the Hedgehog

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2560-male-character-championship-solid-snake-vs-sonic-the
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2922-tournament-quarterfinal-snake-l-block-sonic-squall

I just want to reminisce on what a wild ride SC2K6 was for Snake and Sonic. Before the contest, there were many calling them frauds (Mewtwo is a fraud) because we considered them part of the Noble Nine and yet they had never beaten another Noble Niner. I was one of the rare non-Smurf people who believed in Sonic every year. I picked Sonic > Samus in 2004. I picked Sonic > Mega Man in 2005 (so close). I even picked Sonic 2 > Mario World in the Games Contest ('whoops')! So for Sonic to finally beat Crono in a massive comeback was immensely satisfying, as was Snake completely turning his prior results on their head against Mega Man. I'm frankly still kind of stunned he lost to Samus in the finals.

Anyway, I just wanted to travel down memory lane because Snake's gonna crush Sonic here. The Blue Blur would be lucky to sniff 45% against Snake these days.

Winner: Snake
Odds: 100%

(2) Samus Aran
(7) Mario

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2122-tournament-quarterfinal-mario-vs-samus-aran
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2562-battle-royale-day-1
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3304-contest-semifinal-link-mario-samus-crono

Mario vs. Samus in 2005 is perhaps the most infamous result in contest history that isn't tainted by cheating or rallying. Even if you weren't here for that contest, you've probably either heard the tale or felt the aftereffects of it, so you don't need me to rehash it. There has always been a question of whether Mario rSFF'd Samus or if he was just straight up stronger than her in 2005. I tend to lean the latter (We still haven't seen conclusive proof rSFF exists, although it'd honestly be hard to prove).

Mario probably still reigns supreme on the pecking order, but I expect it to be a little closer than 60/40 this time, honestly. If Metroid Prime 4 had anything tangible other than just an announcement that it's happening, I'd consider Samus > Mario a sexy upset pick...! Not really.

Winner: Mario
Odds: 100%
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I still don't even know what the difference between SFF, rSFF and LFF is

It's just all one big "overlapping fanbases make thing happened lol" idea to me
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Hmm...I'm looking into "best case scenarios" to avoid rematches as much as possible in the second round of the Loser's Bracket.

Whoever wins Division 2 absolutely needs to lose to the winner of Division 1 because they're facing Mega Man for certain.

Division 4 winner beats Division 3 winner since Crono is probably losing to Cloud (or Crono can just lose right away, but he'd have to lose twice or Cloud needs to get upset too)

Division 5 winner beats Division 6 winner since Snake's beating Sonic for sure. Either that, or Sonic loses right away

Division 8 winner beats Division 7 winner since Mario's beating Samus. Either that, or Sephiroth somehow beats Mario.
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Panthera posted...

I still don't even know what the difference between SFF, rSFF and LFF is

It's just all one big "overlapping fanbases make thing happened lol" idea to me

Well, LFF only happens in multi-ways and it usually causes the stronger character to lose because more of its votes are being sucked up by the weaker character than someone else in the match. Of course, sometimes the stronger character wins anyway.

SFF is just the stronger character disproportionately beating down the weaker character. rSFF is the weaker character somehow being more preferred within the fanbase despite being weaker to win.
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Panthera posted...

I still don't even know what the difference between SFF, rSFF and LFF is

SFF - Same Fanbase Factor - When two characters that have an overlapping fanbase and one gets blown out by the other way worse than they would if they were facing a neutral opponent of similar strength. The most classic example is Link blowing out Ganondorf so hard in 2003 that Ganondorf literally performed worse than CATS did against Link.

rSFF - Reverse Same Fanbase Factor - Similar idea, but the idea is that the weaker character does better than they would be expected to. No examples because AFAIK this is theoretical and has never occurred. Especially complicated because if the weaker character won thanks to this... they're no longer the weaker character now are they?

LFF - Leach Fanbase Factor - Only happens in matches with 3 or more characters. Happens when multiple characters who share a fanbase are present and as a result they kind of steal support from the strongest one and make them look more vulnerable/a neutral character looks like they're doing a lot better by standing out.

Think Link/Mario/Samus/Cloud. Mario and Samus will be soaking up some of the Nintendo support that would go to Link if they were replaced by more neutral characters like say... Ryu and Leon (RE4). So Link will look worse/Cloud will look better if you compared them there.
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I remember I went to bed the night before SC2k5 with Samus > Crono.

Right before brackets closed, I turned my computer back on and switched to Mario > Samus, had Mario winning the contest, was FIRMLY on the leaderboard

and then I went and picked Cloud > Link.
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hey man I picked Cloud > Link in 2007 and it got me in the prize money...!

(until SBAllen hosed me and Lopen out of prize money anyway)
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LeonhartFour posted...

hey man I picked Cloud > Link in 2007 and it got me in the prize money...!

(until SBAllen hosed me and Lopen out of prize money anyway)

Refresh my memory.

There's far too many awful SBAllen things for me to remember them all. Press F to pay respects to Ceej.
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well it was a "multiple votes were detected from your IP on certain matches" in Lopen's case which could be anything

for me it was because I accidentally voted twice in one match (I couldn't remember if I had voted yet or not, and I forgot I was logged into an alt), so I got DQ'd

I remember being afraid I had just gotten myself DQ'd as soon as that vote went through, too. I wonder if I had immediately sent Allen a ticket asking him to remove the vote or something if he would've done it.
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I kind of think that FFIV > FFI in 2009 was rSFF. I suspect that first games in series gain some of their strength from being proxies for the entire series, so this kind of setup is a prime opportunity for rSFF to occur.
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Tag

Gotta finish the first topic before it purges, too...
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Eh, I don't think FFI was as strong in 2009 as it was in 2004 anyway. 2003-2004 was peak FF strength around here, and the first game would suffer more than any of them from a dropoff. FFIV would've been stronger in 2004 than it was in 2009, too.

Heck, Final Fantasy Tactics almost beat MGS1 in 2004! FF used to be a beast!
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rSFF would only work in cases where the stronger character has an additional fanbase than the weaker character, but the fanbase they share prefers the weaker character.

Like if Simon Belmont ends up being stronger than Alucard because of Smash, but Castlevania fans still prefer Alucard over Simon.
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I've been trying to work out an entirely theoretical scenario to showcase how SFF works. Wondering if anyone in this topic has any input:

You have 100 voters. 40 of them are diehard Zelda fans, and will vote pro-Zelda no matter what, splitting their vote if there is no Zelda entrant. 40 are diehard FF7 fans, and will vote pro-FF7 no matter what, choosing Cloud over any other FF7 character if Cloud happens to face someone else from the same game. The last 20 approximate "actual strength" - that is to say, they'll vote Link if he's in a match and Cloud if Link isn't in.

The bolded part of that is the SFF - FF7 characters share a fanbase, but will pick Cloud over others.

Link vs. Cloud - the Zelda fanbase and the "actual strength" voters vote Link, the FF7 fanbase votes Cloud. Final result, Link wins 60-40

Link vs. Sephiroth - the Zelda fanbase and the "actual strength" voters vote Link, the FF7 fanbase votes Sephiroth. Final result, Link wins 60-40

Based on just the above two results, you'd expect Cloud and Sephiroth to be about equal with each other, right? They both score 40% on Link in this scenario, after all. So what happens if they meet?

Cloud vs. Sephiroth - the FF7 fanbase and the "actual strength" voters vote Cloud, the Zelda fanbase splits their vote equally between the two. Final result, Cloud wins 80-20.

So Sephiroth gets completely blown out by Cloud, even though the stats show them being roughly equal against Link. This is because their shared fanbase will normally vote for them against outside competition, but when forced to make a choice within their own fandom they have a clear preference for one over the other. This is why SFF messes with the stats, and with so many overlapping types of fanbases (Nintendo fanbase, JRPG fanbase, etc.) it makes matches with SFF involved difficult to use as predictors about future performance.

Note: This hypothetical example does not necessarily reflect the actual strength of the characters mentioned. This is just a thought experiment. Please don't bite my head off because Cloud would never give up 60% to Link or something like that.
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Well the "actual strength" voters should vote proportional to the characters' actual strength and not just for the stronger character. So they should go something like 11-9 for Link vs. Cloud and 12-8 for Link vs. Sephiroth, or whatever. I think this makes it a slightly more realistic scenario. The percentage of actual strength voters vs. diehard series voters is also probably off, but that's why this is just an example to illustrate SFF.

I don't think the above change affects the overall conclusion though.
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i have fully archived all of Leon's analysis up until the current post

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465

it starts at post 87 or somethin' i dunno

please support the CBX Archive

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/76969215
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FFnut posted...

I've been trying to work out an entirely theoretical scenario to showcase how SFF works. Wondering if anyone in this topic has any input:

Awkwardly phrased. Took me a bit to realize why you were comparing Cloud to Zelda, which is what I thought was happening. I think you could explain it much more concisely, though:

Against the same neutral opponent, Cloud gets 61% of the vote, and Sephiroth gets 59%. You'd expect a match between them to be close.

But it isn't. Now you're forcing the FF fans, and the non-FF fans, to choose between two characters from the same property. That's an entirely different contest than Final Fantasy vs Not Final Fantasy. While there are some people who still favor Sephiroth, the majority go with Cloud, and he wins 70/30.

The italicized part doesn't matter as much during matches with more than 2 opponents, and in fact can lead to the occurrence of LFF, but we don't need to discuss that in this contest.
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man it's weird seeing people try to explain SFF

we've just taken it for granted for the last 15 years
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i use SFF in day-to-day conversation
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I like that I managed to set off this string of explanations simply by not knowing which acronym described which concept. I feel like I really contributed here.
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Losers Bracket Round 2

(8) Mega Man
(1) Zero

In my hypothetical bracket, this is a rematch. I think probably the most interesting scenario here would be to have Mega Man against Dante (just for a Capcom/Capcom showdown to see how the hierarchy breaks down, although I wouldn't expect much, if any, SFF) or against Ganondorf just to see how he stacks up against the Noble Nine these days.

Although I suppose a rematch is interesting in the sense that we can actually see how much changes from seeing it rerun. The closest thing we've ever seen to this in the contest before this was the Battle Royal, and we could observe how each match changed as a character was eliminated. I'd be curious to see if a match could be reversed on a rerun. This doesn't seem like a likely place for that to happen though.

Winner: Mega Man
Odds: 95%

(5) Crono
(1) Kirby

This is also a potential rematch, although Crono/Big Boss would be fun, too. Actually, the most hilarious potential match would be Crono/Kefka just to see how much different it would be now after Crono nearly quadrupled him in 2003. I think that's probably a long shot though. This is potentially a match we could see the result flip if it was close the first time though. I do feel like at least one of these rematches is going to have a different result, and I think this one is probably the most likely, whether it's Crono winning the first and losing the second, or vice-versa. I'm still gonna stick with Crono, but my general respect for the Noble Nine will probably doom me in the end (I had an all Noble Nine final nine in CBIX lawl).

(also a friendly reminder since we haven't had much chance to see it at work lately: in a close match, expect a Chrono Trigger 'clutch' 'rally')

Winner: Crono
Odds: 50%

(6) Sonic the Hedgehog
(1) Squall Leonhart

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2918-division-8-final-squall-sora-sonic-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2922-tournament-quarterfinal-snake-l-block-sonic-squall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnosZClakgM" data-time="

In 2007, Squall's chance to break the Noble Nine was ruthlessly stolen from him by Sonic's announcement in Brawl midway through the contest (Seriously, go back and look at Sonic's round 1 performance before the announcement and his round 2 performance after the announcement), and this time, not even Sonic Mania and Smash Ultimate can save Sonic!

Actually, maybe they can. I'd have felt a lot better about this match in 2008 (where I successfully called Auron > Sonic), 2010, or 2013. Sonic's had good stuff in recent years, and it might be enough to hold off Squall this time.

But I'll be darned if I'm not taking Squall in a match he can legitimately win! I was flummoxed to see so few people in the Fourpack of Fun who thought Squall can win this match, too. No one thought he would've beaten Mario with Red in the match in 2013 either (and HE WOULD HAVE! Darn you Vivi, another opportunity cruelly stolen from him). This is Squall's one shining moment.

Unless Zelda's here or something, and then Sonic wins easily and what will it matter because my life will be in tatters at Squall having lost his chance forever

Winner: Squall
Odds: 44%
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Sonic breaking out of his years of his franchise being known exclusively for being a joke is too much to have faith in Squall against him. Maybe Squall could handle Crono or something idk. Have to wonder if Squall himself won't start fading at some point, if FFVII can see its cast losing strength it seems like it should be just a matter of time before Squall stops being (near-)elite
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Mania is probably the only non-Smash game Sonic has gotten in years I think actually matters for him

He's also one of the few characters I am curious about in regards to how pictures change him. Has Classic Sonic ever been in a match pic outside sprite rounds? Would that even matter?
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Noble Niners get remembered but near elites never die

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

also here's a handy page full of contest terminology that is helpful to know around these parts, complete with the top two reasons Tifa might be winning her division
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Ranticoot posted...

Mania is probably the only non-Smash game Sonic has gotten in years I think actually matters for him

He's also one of the few characters I am curious about in regards to how pictures change him. Has Classic Sonic ever been in a match pic outside sprite rounds? Would that even matter?

Eh, I don't know that it would matter. Sonic almost always looks great in match pics, regardless of his design.

I think the only thing that would actually make a noticeable impact would be a Werehog pic, for obvious reasons.
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I explained X Stats and SFF to my friend a few weeks ago in regards to another tourney. It was interesting
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I can believe Squall > Crono, but I'd be shocked if he beats Sonic.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Panthera posted...

I still don't even know what the difference between SFF, rSFF and LFF is

It's just all one big "overlapping fanbases make thing happened lol" idea to me

Man theres a link in the first post of the stats topic bruh

the Stats Topic is pretty niche these days man

I used to be one of the most popular users on the board when the Stats Topic mattered and now I'm probably middle of the pack
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Anagram posted...

I can believe Squall > Crono, but I'd be shocked if he beats Sonic.

but like

why
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