Board 8 > Leonhart Analyzes the Bracket: Part 2!

(+) Yeah! (+)

UltimaterializerX posted...

Panthera posted...

I still don't even know what the difference between SFF, rSFF and LFF is

It's just all one big "overlapping fanbases make thing happened lol" idea to me

Man theres a link in the first post of the stats topic bruh

Yeah but this is a stats topic, not the stats topic.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Anagram posted...

I can believe Squall > Crono, but I'd be shocked if he beats Sonic.

but like

why

Because I view Crono as weaker than Sonic.
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you're answering the wrong question
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I don't think Squall has gained any strength in the past few years, but I can imagine Sonic as having gained some. Crono I think is only capable of falling unless Square pulls its head out of its ass and does something with CT, which it never will. I also think Sonic was above Squall to begin with.
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you'd think Chrono Trigger was only capable of falling too and then 2015 happened
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no one votes in these contests except for the 200 people on this site, all of whom worship chrono trigger.
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in a non-rally tournament, chrono is probably behind only Him. i mean, this is literally the place you would go to to try to generate a chrono trigger rally
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(2) Samus Aran
(1) Luigi

I hate that the stat nerd in me is making me second-guess my Luigi > Sephiroth upset simply because Samus/Seph is a more interesting match (in addition to not being a rematch). We could get an indirect Mario/Samus comparison through him. Either way, Samus wins though.

Winner: Samus
Odds: 100%

Finals Division Semifinal

(1) Link
(4) Cloud Strife

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1780-tournament-final-link-vs-cloud-strife
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2129-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2566-battle-royale-final
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2925-tournament-final-link-cloud-l-block-snake
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3306-contest-final-link-crono-snake-cloud
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3856-contest-final-link-vs-cloud-strife

What more do you need me to say about this? We've gotten Link vs. Cloud in some form in every Character Battle except for 2002 and 2013. Cloud only won once, and that was the first time. Could this be Link's biggest win over Cloud ever? I think most people probably expect that at this point. After all, Link can SFF Cloud now...!

Winner: Link
Odds: LOL

(3) Solid Snake
(7) Mario

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2126-tournament-semifinal-mario-vs-solid-snake

Relevant image:

I think this is probably the one match everyone wanted to see this contest because it's essentially the battle for the #2 character on this site. I honestly think Snake has looked better than Mario in every contest since 2008. Heck, Snake looked better than Link in 2013 until Draven ruined everything (much like how Undertale ruined us getting to see if Chrono Trigger could have indeed dethroned OoT). I legitimately think Snake being back in Smash negates whatever boost Mario might have gained from Odyssey and the Switch's rise.

plus my word would Link vs. Mario be a horrendously awful final Snake NEEDS to win to save the contest

Winner: Snake
Odds: 55%
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how would you rank the noble nine?
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To be fair, Melee ruined Chrono Trigger more than Undertale did

Saddest result of 2015
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well yeah

we could've at least gotten to see CT whip FFVII (and it would have) if not for that
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LeonhartFour posted...

plus my word would Link vs. Mario be a horrendously awful final Snake NEEDS to win to save the contest

I have Link > Mario right now and I'm pretty sure I'm gonna change it cause I hate it
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LeonhartFour posted...

Unless Zelda's here or something, and then Sonic wins easily and what will it matter because my life will be in tatters at Squall having lost his chance forever

spoken exactly like a Squall fan.
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PoIl6177 posted...

no one votes in these contests except for the 200 people on this site, all of whom worship chrono trigger.

Yet Crono keeps embarassing himself.

Though tbh I have a theory that CT is just much stronger than the lead character is.

Because Crono just isn't that popular among the CT fanbase. A lot of people prefer Frog (like myself) or Magus. Crono is the boring mute lead character, arguably the blandest in the game. Of course 99% the big CT fans will vote for him, but maybe people who just played CT, liked the game but didn't fall in love with Crono might not.

Anyway, just me trying to explain stuff.

I'd probably pick CT over any zelda game except MM and maaaaaabye TP.

But I might pick Epona over Crono.

Losers Bracket Round 3

(8) Mega Man
(5) Crono

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2127-tournament-semifinal-crono-vs-mega-man

In CBIX, Mega Man and Crono were put into similar situations where they had to face a Pokemon while being weighted down by another character from their series. Crono got rolled, and Mega Man pulled off perhaps the most improbable victory of the contest by beating Charizard (seriously, it might be even more improbable than Vivi > Mario because of POKEFEAR and the fact that Mega Man was the one being held back). I'm hoping that match killed Pokefear for good imhotbqh because they didn't win another match after that. Perhaps Mega Man stole Pokemon's FEAR power for himself...!

Seriously though, barring a 2015 CT boost for Crono (which would probably let him beat Cloud anyway), Mega Man should win this.

Winner: Mega Man
Odds: 75%

(2) Samus Aran
(1) Squall Leonhart

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1354-north-division-semifinal-squall-leonhart-vs-samus-aran
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/994-west-division-semifinals-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-samus-aran
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1777-chaos-division-final-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-samus-aran

If Squall beats Sonic, it's a successful contest and whatever he does against Samus is gravy. If Sonic wins, I'm picking up the pieces of my life off the floor so who even cares.

Winner: Samus
Odds: 100%

Round 4

(8) Mega Man
(4) Cloud Strife

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2919-tournament-quarterfinal-samus-mega-man-cloud-ryu

This is another Noble Nine matchup we've never seen one-on-one, so that would be neat! And Mega Man has a really good chance to win if Cloud hasn't found a way to recover from his disastrous CBIX performance. Of course, Cloud might not even make it here if he hasn't. I love Cloud and want to believe in him, so I'm going to pick him, but Mega Man's a good upset (if it's even an upset at this point).

Winner: Cloud
Odds: 55%

(7) Mario
(2) Samus Aran

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2561-tournament-final-samus-aran-vs-solid-snake
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5266-character-battle-ix-final-draven-vs-solid-snake-vs-samus

Whether it's Snake or Mario, I think Samus loses. Samus is in a weird sort of limbo where she might be the 4th strongest Noble Niner, and she can't beat anybody above her and nobody below her can beat her. I guess it's the weird space that Sephiroth occupied for most of his tenure.

Winner: Mario
Odds: 85%
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ExThaNemesis posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Unless Zelda's here or something, and then Sonic wins easily and what will it matter because my life will be in tatters at Squall having lost his chance forever

spoken exactly like a Squall fan.

LOL this coming from the guy shaking in his boots about Ryu
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You say Mario beating Snake is a bad thing, but according to my bracket that gives us Mario vs Sonic in the losers.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

You say Mario beating Snake is a bad thing, but according to my bracket that gives us Mario vs Sonic in the losers.

yeah well your bracket sucks
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LeonhartFour posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

You say Mario beating Snake is a bad thing, but according to my bracket that gives us Mario vs Sonic in the losers.

yeah well your bracket sucks

Not really no the Mario/Sonic/Snake matches are all the same.

Admit it Mario vs Sonic is glorious and who cares about the finals anyway. LAW.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Not really no the Mario/Sonic/Snake matches are all the same.

I mean Sonic has to be able to beat Samus anyway and that's not happening
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LeonhartFour posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Not really no the Mario/Sonic/Snake matches are all the same.

I mean Sonic has to be able to beat Samus anyway and that's not happening

Wait what

Ok lets check

I mean unless you've got Samus getting upset by someone other than Sonic that's pretty much unavoidable unless Samus beats Mario first
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Ok thats so weird. The match disappeared in one of the times I edited my bracket.

I think it was when I removed Mewtwo from the equation.

Yeah I probably had mewtwo beating mario or some weirdness and changed my mind.

I wouldn't be caught picking Samus over Mario unless they released Metroid: Ocarina of Time or something like that.

I mean Metroid is the third son of the nintendo family.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I think it was when I removed Mewtwo from the equation.

Fraud confirmed???
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Panthera posted...

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I think it was when I removed Mewtwo from the equation.

Fraud confirmed???

Nah this is circular logic. I removed him largely from reading Leon's thread and also reading other debates and seeing a lot of people have him losing to Tifa.

Though I might boost him again later.

Mewtwo is a fraud
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At least if Mewtwo overperforms I'll have my target to laugh at.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Luigi > Sephiroth upset

Did you forget to do a writeup for this match, or I am just somehow not seeing it?

Also, Mewtwo is a fraud.
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pjbasis posted...

At least if Mewtwo overperforms I'll have my target to laugh at.

The problem is even if Mewtwo overperforms by quite a bit, he'll still lose to Tifa.
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LeonhartFour posted...

(1) Luigi
(1) Sephiroth

This could be the ultimate indignity if Sephiroth gets beat down by Mario and then eliminated by the little brother! As seen in the poll for Kirby/Big Boss, Kirby came awfully close to Sephiroth in that match, and Luigi's been on his level, if not a little stronger, since 2006. I think this is a great upset if you're looking for one (heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Luigi ends up being the Guru favorite here, actually). Nobody trusts Sephiroth anymore. He can definitely still win though. I think this one is a legit tossup, so just go with your gut.

Also, if Ryu is here instead, Luigi probably wins anyway because Sephiroth will have lost because he's just fallen THAT MUCH, not because Ryu has suddenly boosted up to Noble Nine levels.

Winner: Luigi
Odds: 50%

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LeonhartFour posted...

plus my word would Link vs. Mario be a horrendously awful final Snake NEEDS to win to save the contest

This makes me wonder, if Mario won a close match here and got stomped by Link, would people turn to Snake in the rematch just for something fresh? That's one situation I could see a loser's bracket rematch result changing
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LeonhartFour posted...

Mewtwo is a fraud

This is already my favorite contest meme and we haven't gotten started yet.
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MZero11 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

plus my word would Link vs. Mario be a horrendously awful final Snake NEEDS to win to save the contest

This makes me wonder, if Mario won a close match here and got stomped by Link, would people turn to Snake in the rematch just for something fresh? That's one situation I could see a loser's bracket rematch result changing

honestly my biggest fear is Snake beats him the first time and then loses in the rematch right before the finals setting up the disastrous final match

hopefully voters are smart enough to see what the path to the TRUE END is
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I don't think voters will change their opinion based on who has the better chance to beat Link because they will assume that neither of them has any real chance to win.
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Snake has got this.

I'm definitely debating on taking him over Sans.
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If Sans makes it to Snake, Snake has no chance to win that match.
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yeah if you've got a character catching a rally there's no point in not taking them all the way unless you believe we'll magically recapture our old vote totals somehow
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(1) Link
(3) Solid Snake

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3306-contest-final-link-crono-snake-cloud
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5267-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-4-link-vs-solid-snake

Here's my hot take on CBIX: I think Snake would've beaten Link if Draven didn't derail it. Yes, I know what some of you are saying. "But Link beat him in the bonus poll!" But hear me out. For the first two rounds of the contest, Snake just looked flat out better than Link. Link was getting anti-voted at a level that was usually reserved for Cloud and Sephiroth. That might have been the weakest Link (goodbye) we've ever seen.

And then Draven happened, and Link became the site's hero again, even as a fallen martyr. I think it gave him a boost, and that's why he beat Snake in the bonus poll. People thought Link was unassailable, and then suddenly, he wasn't. Link fans had become complacent and apathetic, and Draven gave them their fire back.

Which brings me to my biggest fear: Snake beats Link here, and then Link hulks up and wins in the final match. I think this is much more likely to happen than the reverse. I think if Link wins here, he wins again in the final match, especially if Snake keeps it close because it'll put the Zelda fans on high alert. I honestly think picking Snake in an upset here isn't a bad pick because you can always hedge by picking Link again in the final because you know he'll be there. But even if Snake loses the rematch, beating Link here would be a massive success for him. Losing in the final honestly wouldn't even matter.

Winner: SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE?!
Odds: !

(4) Cloud
(7) Mario

Relevant poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/996-north-division-final-mario-vs-cloud-strife

Somehow we haven't seen these two in a match of any kind since that infamous match in 2002, and it looks like somehow Mario's going to luck out and win them both! Cloud winning here would be amazing, but unless FFVIIR and Smash 4 boosted him a lot, he probably won't, even if Mario is a little overrated.

Winner: Mario
Odds: 65%

(1) Link
(7) Mario

Relevant polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3854-final-rounds-semifinal-link-vs-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1002-tournament-final-mario-vs-link

He come to town.

Winner: Link
Odds: LOL

Finals

(3) Solid Snake
(1) Link

See above.

Winner: Link
Odds: LOL
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Anyway, whew, that's it! If you have any questions (such as about matches you're curious about that you have in your bracket that I don't), feel free!

also don't copy my picks because you won't win
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I don't see a world where MGSV and BotW are the latest releases for those two and Snake is the one that wins.

Snake was only going to win CBIX cause of LFF!
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and just for the heck of it here's my fun entry (which might get more points than my real entry)

Division 1

Lightning > Dante
Chun-Li > Neku
Narukami > Aya
Tidus > Leon
Chun-Li > Lightning
Tidus > Narukami
Tidus > Chun-Li

Division 2

Knuckles > Zero
Noctis > Wario
Yoshi > Velvet
Scorpion > Marston
Knuckles > Noctis
Scorpion > Yoshi
Knuckles > Scorpion

Division 3

Sora > Red
Big Boss > Crash
Godot > Peach
Bomberman > Kefka
Big Boss > Sora
Godot > Bomberman
Big Boss > Godot

Division 4

2B > Shadow
Bowser > Terra
Phoenix > Ike
Kirby > Estelle
Bowser > 2B
Phoenix > Kirby
Phoenix > Bowser

Division 5

Squall > Ramza
Ezio > The Boss
Fox > Aloy
Aerith > Captain Toad
Squall > Ezio
Aerith > Fox
Squall > Aerith

Division 6

Rosalina > Hayabusa
Riku > Pac-Man
Auron > Vincent
Sub-Zero > Joker
Riku > Rosalina
Auron > Sub-Zero
Auron > Riku

Division 7

Luigi > Frog
Drake > Chief
Tifa > GlaDOS
Ocelot > MMX
Luigi > Drake
Tifa > Ocelot
Luigi > Tifa

Division 8

Sephiroth > Captain Falcon
Lara > Amaterasu
Shepard > Ryu
Quiet > KOS-MOS
Sephiroth > Lara
Shepard > Quiet
Shepard > Sephiroth

Finals Division

Tidus > Knuckles
Big Boss > Phoenix
Squall > Auron
Luigi > Shepard
Tidus > Big Boss
Squall > Luigi
Squall > Tidus

Losers Bracket

Knuckles > Mega Man
Phoenix > Cloud
Snake > Auron
Shepard > Mario
Big Boss > Phoenix
Snake > Luigi
Big Boss > Snake
Tidus > Big Boss
Squall > Tidus

pjbasis posted...

I don't see a world where MGSV and BotW are the latest releases for those two and Snake is the one that wins.

pjbasis posted...

Snake was only going to win CBIX cause of LFF!

Would've won without it!

Calling it now!

You can't call...something in the past....now!
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Snake beating Link would be phenomenal.

I may just have to bite the bullet and take Sans winning the whole thing though.
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also in case anyone is wondering

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate's release date is set to be on the potential date of LUIGI VS. SEPHIROTH

CHALK ONE UP FOR WEEGI BABY

and also Snake will boost even more the rest of the contest after that so I might have to revise my picks
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Snake will rLFsFSFF his way to a comfy 57% - 54.8% victory over Link, obviously
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Snake he come to town
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