Board 8 > ~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, a match doesn't have to be close to be interesting.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Most matches in most contests are decided in the first five minutes. This isn't a new twist. It's just more apparent when you have four of them running at the same time.

I guess. Still not seeing what would make this contest one of the best already though.

Edit: Aside from Sans getting destroyed if youre as hyped about that as Extha
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Well yeah, it's a bit too early to be talking about it as one of the best, although the results have been interesting and unexpected in many ways.

It's the second part of the contest that will ultimately determine this contest's place in history though.
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Day 11, Match 1 - Auron vs. Lucina
(3) Auron: 65.44% - (14) Lucina: 34.56%

What happened?: Another Nintendo overperformance. Auron used to be a solid elite (he was effectively FFX's Vincent) and is probably still up there. Lucina was a not terrible but uninspiring FE entrant in 2013, and going off of then this would have been near a tripling, instead she escaped the doubling. Also worth noting that there wasn't a huge amount of movement after the power hour, which is a bit unexpected given the franchises involved.

What could this mean?: Lucina is a lot stronger for sure, thanks to Smash and a general rise in FE's popularity. This wasn't a very inspiring performance by Auron, but if we assume Lucina's pretty decent now he probably still has it in him.

Day 11, Match 2 - Magus vs. Vincent Valentine
(6) Magus: 48.11% - (11) Vincent: 51.89%

What happened?: This match was basically SBAllen's love letter to us, pitching two fallen legends against each other. Magus has undeperformed consistently since 2005 (whether or not 2005 is included is debatable), not even appearing in 2006 and bombing really, really badly against Alucard in 2010. He is arguably a fraud, as he basically had two inarguably good performances and that's it. Vincent was good for longer, but just bombed in 2013 (pic sabotage or otherwise). Even on that though, he looked well clear if Magus. Then the match starts and Magus took the lead after the first few updates (FF7 winning the board vote wtf). It went back and forth for a bit before Vincent finally stayed ahead, but he never built a big lead.

What could this mean?: Oh my god, Vincent looked so damn bad here. Even with a Chrono Trigger boost, which is believable, he should have beaten Magus by more than this. He shouldn't look substantially worse than Alucard. Would Vincent lose to Peach now? Is that how far we have come? He might be alright against Auron because of SFF but he is screwed in the long term.
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Day 11, Match 3 - Shulk vs. Sub-Zero
(7) Shulk: 37.43% - (10) Sub-Zero: 62.57

What happened?: Shulk is a character a lot of people expected to boost a lot because of Smash Bros. and the growth of the Xenoblade franchise. So of course get gets put up against Sub-Zero, a near elite (and make no mistake, Sub-Zero is well stronger than Scorpion). He had no chance of winning this match, and then did not. Oh well.

What could this mean?: Shulk clearly got a lot stronger, he did roughly as well on Sub-Zero now as he did on Altair. This was just bad bracket placement and my one real issue with the bracket.

Day 11, Match 4 -Ren Amamiya/Joker vs. Claire Redfield
(6) Joker: 46.42% - (11) Claire: 53.58%

What happened?: Early on this seemed like an easy win for Joker, but then as less recognisable characters and avatars faltered, as well as Resident Evil looking good, this started to go to Claire. Joker, at least, did not get screwed with a name nobody knew. The match started neck and neck but then Claire pulled away, with Joker turning out to be very frontloaded indeed.

What could this mean?: When Leon beat down Dragonborn I knew an avatar from a strong, popular RPG would struggle with a beloved Resident Evil character. Joker just does not have enough to him despite the strength of his game. At least he's a lot better than Yu probably. As for Claire I'll say it again, Resident Evil is back.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

This was just bad bracket placement and my one real issue with the bracket.

The Terra positioning was even worse! Terrable, even!
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Shulk was your one real issue?

I mean the dude's not that strong he'd win one match at best just about anywhere you put him in the bracket
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Day 12, Match 1 - Luigi vs. Miles Edgeworth
(1) Luigi: 77.47% - (16) Edgeworth: 22.53%

What happened?: Another standard Nintendo fodder beatdown, in which Nintendo overperforms expectations based on the last contest. The one really notable thing about this match is the trends, with Luigi building his percentage over time. Looks like Ace Attorney is more frontloaded than Nintendo.

What could this mean?: Strong showing for Luigi. Edgeworth is fodder but he's reliable fodder, and Ace Attorney as a whole has looked better lately. I do think this match should be looked at in the context of Bowser vs. Gordon because even now I'm having a hard time imagining Edgeworth beating Gordon.

Day 12, Match 2 - Frog vs. Monokuma
(8) Frog: 76.38% - (9) Monokuma: 23.62%

What happened?: Another overseeded fodder blowout. Monokuma is bottom 5 for sure, but was able to get a decent seed anyway. Frog also built his lead over time, showing that Monokuma is another frontloaded "cult" character.

What could this mean?: Chrono Trigger is still good and Monokuma is very weak, next,

Day 12, Match 3 - Master Chief vs. Goro Majima
(5) Chief: 69% (nice) - (12) Majima: 31%

What happened?: This should have been a huge blowout and wasn't. Chief was struggling to get over even 65% during the Power Hour. He recovered somewhat and then held steady, but ultimately was far lower than expected.

What could this mean?: Majima should be one of the weakest characters in the bracket, that Chief could not get over 70% is fairly embarassing. Would he even beat Bomberman? It follows that Majima would be weaker than Kiryu after all. This was a really bad showing.

Day 12, Match 4 - Nathan Drake vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
(4) Drake: 43.27% - (13) Tails: 56.78%

What happened?: Another debated match that looked less debated as things went on. Sonic looked good, western characters have been a mix and Uncharted looked bad even despite 4. The match started as 60/40 which is pretty awful, but Drake did redeem himself somewhat as the match went on. Still pretty bad since I can't imagine Tails suddenly bein super strong.

What could this mean?: Uncharted has never been good here for some reason, even among Sony series, and that is clearly still true. Sonic Team has looked good and that continues, this was a better showing for Tails than Th Boss managed in 2010, and I can't see Drake being that much weaker.

Sorry for the short ones today!
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Edgeworth doesn't need to be able to beat Gordon.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

At least he's a lot better than Yu probably.

Is he though?

In oldfaqs I can totally see beloved ps2 game protag wiping the new guy
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A game from the late '00s isn't OldFAQs

But I'd bet on P5 being stronger than P4, at least for now. P5 was a huge deal, although I could see it not aging well, maybe something akin to MGS2.
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That would surprise me

P4 blew up the franchise. P5 had a lukewarm reception.
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pjbasis posted...

That would surprise me

P4 blew up the franchise. P5 had a lukewarm reception.

It probably depends on what circles you run in, but my experience is quite different. Persona 4 was a cult game that gained fans pretty slowly due to being released on a past-its-prime console, whereas P5 was a major game that got attention outside the normal JRPG fan circles.
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pjbasis posted...

P5 had a lukewarm reception.

Where?
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P5 had a great reception, people didn't like the anime tho

also Atlus banning streams past a certain in-game date was bullshit
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The sad part is that that's Chief's biggest blowout win since 2004.
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LeonhartFour posted...

pjbasis posted...

P5 had a lukewarm reception.

Where?

Everywhere? Maybe lukewarm implies a kind of mixed reception, but I meant that it was received well enough, but I definitely don't see the fervor for the series it had when P3 and 4 got big.
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pjbasis posted...

Everywhere?

No?

I am legitimately confused by what you're saying.
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As far as I can tell P5 blew up massively. To a point where it reached out beyond Persona fans and even JRPG fans.

This is over in the UK so maybe it's different elsewhere but over here people seemed to get into Persona 5 who wouldn't usually go near the genre at all.

Nice analyses man!>
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As of the end of March 2018, Persona 5 had sold 2.2 million copies worldwide.

Can confirm it did well in the U.K. too:
https://www.vg247.com/2017/04/10/persona-5-debuts-at-uk-no-1-with-the-biggest-launch-of-the-series-to-date/
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It has 93% on Metacritic. Where did you see the bad reception?
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hey @Lightning_Strikes, I'm archiving this thread right now and you have two sets of Day 9s. I think your count is off by 1 now. I'll fix it as I go.
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Safer_777 posted...

It has 93% on Metacritic. Where did you see the bad reception?

Maybe he saw some hardcore Persona fans say that P3 and P4 did some things better than P5, because that's the only negativity I've seen.
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Thanks Zen, will fix with this one. And Persona 5 definitely tops 4 in both popularity and reception - with regards to those UK numbers I don't think 4 even charted. And Joker is much more recognisable, and more of a character, than Yu. Anyway!

Day 14, Match 1 - Tifa vs. Geno
(3) Tifa: 73.19% - (14) Geno: 26.81%

What happened?: The Grinch leak being fake and this result in one day, poor Geno. This match was another fodder blowout with FF somewhat below projections but recovering after a poor early vote.

What could this mean?: Tifa was below projections but looked like no slouch either, she's possibly even the third strongest Final Fantasy character at this point. Geno nay have benefited from a bit of potential Smash hype but I doubt it - the people paying attention to rumours likely would have voted Geno anyway.

Day 14, Match 2 - GlaDOS vs. Mewtwo
(6) GlaDOS: 37.52% - (11) Mewtwo: 62.48%

What happened?: A fairly standard match with some broader implications. GlaDOS looked really, really good in 2013, and there were a lot of cries of Mewtwo being a fraud (beyond just not beating Sonic and Sephiroth) so GlaDOS had a case for an upset pick. It didn't happen. Mewtwo started big then quickly stabilised, not as frontloaded as Pikachu here. Also GlaDOS kept it a lot closer during the board vote which is sonewhat suprising.

What could this mean?: Either Mewtwo's legit, the Valve deboost is real, or most likely both. Mewtwo looked really good here for sure. I am leaning more towards GlaDOS underperforming though. With as good as GlaDOS looked in 2013 it would take a pretty ridiculous Mewtwo to do this. I would still take GlaDOS over Gordon, if only because Portal's slightly less dead than Half Life, but she is definitely weaker. As for Mewtwo I am not expecting him to beat Tifa, but you can't rule it out either.
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Day 14, Match 3 - King Dedede vs.Revolver Ocelot
(7) Dedede: 49.51% - (10) Ocelot: 50.49%

What happened?: Who said this contest doesn't have close matches? Dedede was pure fodder in 2008, but with a board 8 rally and lots more exposure became a likely choice for a boost. Ocelot was expected to be same old Ocelot. As the match drew closer this became less certain. Dedede got off to an early lead but never pulled away. Ocelot gradually chipped away, then held a very narrow lead until the end. The favourite won, but not without a hell of a match.

What could this mean?: That Ocelot is a master of ultra-close round one matches mainly. Also that Dedede has boosted hugely. Additionally, the high votals make me suspect minor rallying (unfortunately I wasn't around to confirm).

Day 14, Match 4 - Mega Man X vs. Isabelle
(2) X: 80.65% - (15) Isabelle: 19.35%

What happened?: X showed us all how it's done and gave us the beatdown of the contest so far. I don't think that was expected given that Isabelle would definitely be fodder but had just been confirmed for Smash and is widely popular.

What could this mean?: X looks primed to beat Tifa and perhaps then take the division. He looked really good here. Isabelle is fodder but I'm having a hard time seeing her as weaker than Tom Nook used to be, so X looks great. I am cautious about SFF though.
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X gon give it to ya
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Isabelle can absolutely be weaker than Tom Nook.

also as the #1 Oracle prediction for MMX/Isabelle it came as no surprise to me!

I think the only reason people undershot 80% for X was because no one had done it yet
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Than old Tom Nook? I dunno. Animal Crossing is bigger than it was and Isabelle's in Smash - she seems to have more going for her.
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Maybe in another site, but here I'd bet most people don't buy AC often. But I guess they all tried the first one since their characters kept getting into brackets.

Lightning Strikes posted...

Than old Tom Nook? I dunno. Animal Crossing is bigger than it was and Isabelle's in Smash - she seems to have more going for her.

Except for the fact that people don't seem to like her.
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Never got that impression she always seemed like one of the most popular AC characters.

Day 15, Match 1 - Sephiroth vs. Albert Wesker
(1) Sephiroth: 70.28% - (16) Wesker: 29.72%

What happened?: How the mighty have fallen. Sephiroth is the only Noble 9'er to not make the legends bracket and it was probably the right choice. Even if he is not the weakest (and there is now an argument for that) he doesn't really fit as an icon of a huge game/franchise. Anyway, this match was standard. Wesker is a fodder line-ish character who is lowest on the RE totem pole. He still overperformed expectations, likely due to anti-voting.

What could this mean?: While an underperformance on paper, this reminds me a lot of Cloud vs. Ridley in that there are a lot of people who just will not vote for FF7. Despite Resident Evil looking strong, Wesker is unlikely to be a recipient of a boost since he isn't in it anymore. Sephiroth has probably dropped a bit, but there's not much to read here.

Day 15, Match 2 - Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon
(8) Richter: 39.6% - (9) Captain Falcon: 60.4%

What happened?: Richter got in purely because of Smash, but I'm glad he's here. Castlevania has always deserved more reps since the series is pretty strong with a variety of faces. It was a bad draw for Richter though since Captain Falcon is an icon of characters people only really like because of Smash. Falcon's also looked better each time we've seen him. Falcon trashed Richter for the first hour, especially in the board vote, but there was a steep 5% drop and it ended up a fairly standard 60/40 result.

What could this mean?: Not much because of the Smash Bros. connection, but Richter should probably come back. I have to wonder who would win between him and Simon - I have a sneaking suspicion that it might be Richter.
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Day 15, Match 3 - Amaterasu vs. Draven
(5) Amaterasu: 88.15% - (12) Draven: 11.85%

What happened?: I won't get into the 2013 Draven rally but it was the worst example of rallying we have seen from a very toxic place, and I am not staunchly anti-rallying. So this match was pure catharsis. It was always going to be a beatdown, even if the League of Legends subreddit hadn't banned rallies it isn't what it was and the joke wouldn't work twice. For it to be this strong however, was stunning. It also built over time which was surprising as well, it wasn't just diehards anti-voting.

What could this mean?: Draven is the only character in this bracket to truly have a claim at being Tanner level. This really hammers home how much that rally hijacked the last contest, now let's never see him again. Good show for Ammy too.

Day 15, Match 4 - Lara Croft vs. Metal Man
(4) Lara: 67.89% - (13) Metal Man: 32.11%

What happened?: Lara is a character who has more interesting contest history than people realise, and it ties to the fortunes of her series very directly (except for 2006, where she was overvalued due to the female side of the bracket getting wonky in the last two rounds). In 2002 and 2003 She looked pretty decent, winning a couple of matches and bowing out to Crono and Zelda, who are obviously very legit. Then Angel of Darkness came out and killed her original series, and she instantly became fodder, getting only 18% on Samus. Then she missed 2005 and was fodder again in 2007. By 2008 her series was effectively dead again and she missed both that contest and 2010. Then in 2013 she came back and was suddenly the strongest she's ever been, a high midcarder even. That is how much the 2013 reboot did for her. She has had both one of the largest drops and the largest boosts. Metal Man was a Board 8 rally, and doesn't really have a good comparison point. The match itself was an unspectacular blowout other than Metal Man's predictably good board vote.

What could this mean?: Lara has obviously retained almost all of her 2013 strength, Rise was well received and Shadow just came out, she is legit again. It is hard to tell how much so though, as we really don't have a good comparison for Metal Man. He's recognisable so probably not trash, but he can't be that strong. Lara vs. Amaterasu could be a good one. Also why Metal Man and not Air Man?
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Lara Croft lost to Altair last contest, how is that a high midcarder? Oh, and Ryu Hayabusa outperformed them both against Kefka, though that may be due to Kefka splitting votes with Zack (in which case wow Ryu H. is weak).

Wesker did well because YOU WILL GIVE ME AN EGG.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

Lara has obviously retained almost all of her 2013 strength

based on what

Individual Robot Masters are probably trash
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I mean maybe, but we can't say for sure. I wonder how Piranha Plant would do.

Day 16, Match 1 - Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving
(3) Ryu: 68.44% - (14) Lloyd: 31.56%

What happened?: Poor Lloyd. He is probably still okayish all things considered, but he hasn't had a winnable draw since 2007. He just doesn't get the support in nominations anymore to get a decent seed. Overall, this was not the worst showing for him, but not great either; It was slightly ahead of the projected result based on 2010 but not by much. Overall a standard result without much in the way of interesting trends.

What could this mean?: I can't imagine Lloyd has changed much, ToS still gets rereleases and the people who like it still like it. Ryu looked good here, and I fully expect him to deliver some major beatdowns in the next two rounds.

Day 16, Match 2 - Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool
(6) Shepard: 51.23% - (11) K. Rool: 48.77%

What happened?: This match looks crazy on paper but it was possible to see this coming. We saw Smash boost people, we saw Donkey Kong in particular look good, and we saw Mass Effect underwhelm. after the board vote ended this match was neck and neck, and it then spent seven hours going back and forth between the two. Eventually Shepard did start to build a lead thanks to Nintendo's frontloaded nature, and got over 51%, but this was a clear Pyrrhic victory for him.

What could this mean?: What we've seen already pretty much. Smash has been very impressive and Mass Effect has looked bad. I also think there's been a lot of increased general interest in Donkey Kong lately. It's hard to say how much Shepard has fallen, and we'll get a good look at that when he goes up against Ryu next round.
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Day 16, Match 3 - Ellie vs. KOS-MOS
(7) Ellie: 45.55% - (10) KOS-MOS: 54.45%

What happened?: Ellie had a lot going against her into this match. Her game is strong but it was five years ago with the sequel potentially years away still. She had a very plain looking match pic and KOS-MOS has somehow become relevant again thanks to Xenoblade 2. This match started badly for Ellie but she did build a lot of percentage over the course of the match. The other notable thing is that this was only the second match the site as a whole got wrong, heavily favouring Ellie. Board 8 got one over on them for once instead of the other way around.

What could this mean?: Ellie didn't look terrible here all things considered. I think without Xenoblade 2 this match is neck and neck, and I think KOS-MOS doing so well in Europe (where Xenoblade is very popular, but 2/3 Xenosaga games didn't even release) probably indicates that. The next match for KOS-MOS is going to be a tough one, but she looked good enough to not be worried about it if you have her.

Day 16, Match 4 - Aqua vs. Quiet
(2) Aqua: 64.11% - (15) Quiet: 35.89%

What happened?: That glorious feeling when the guru nom looks good. Aqua ran away with this one and didn't look back despite bleeding percentage over the course of the night vote. Not much more to say on the recap front, this match was quite standard.

What could this mean?: I'm having a hard time seeing Quiet, though she is certainly the weakest Metal Gear character in one of these things as ultra fodder given how high MGS's floor has been, even Otacon isn't terrible. I think Aqua, as one of the main protagonists of a series GameFAQs still has fondness for, is fairly legit. She got a 2 seed as opposed to fellow guru nom Sully's 6 seed for a reason. We'll get a good look at how strong she really is when she goes up against KOS-MOS. Also how come we never got Gray Fox in?
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Lightning Strikes posted...

I mean maybe, but we can't say for sure.

He did noticeably worse than Slime did against Lara in 2013, so I think we can say it for sure.
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Round 2 begin!

Day 17, Match 1 - Dante vs. Lightning
(1) Dante: 65.62% - (9) Lightning: 34.38%

What happened?: My sincere apologies to SuperNiceDog. Dante was never really threatened by Lightning, but I think some people were wondering if maybe she would do something here based on Dante not destroying Cuphead and Chloe getting demolished by Lightning. Nope, Cuphead was just sorely underseeded relative to Chloe (those two should have been swapped). This was a really gnarly beatdown early on with Dante doubling Lightning - she almost looked like Cuphead at the start of the match. She did recover somewhat but not by much, still losing with less than 35%. At the start of the contest there were seven Final Fantasy leads in the main bracket, there is now just one, Squall left in it.

What could this mean?: Again, Cuphead shouldn't have been a 16-seed, Chloe is terrible, and Lightning is not very good. In fairness I do think this is a strong Dante, I think Devil May Cry 5 hype is a very real thing, and as I will get into in the next match his bout against Ganondorf could be one to watch. This was in-line (slightly over) with the projected result based on 2013 though, so I don't think Lightning was much better than her terrible performance there.

Day 17, Match 2 - Chun-Li vs. Ganondorf
(12) Chun-Li: 41.09% - (4) Ganondorf: 58.91%

What happened?: Now this result was just baffling. Chun-Li not crushing Spyro was almost certainly entirely down to Spyro now being decent, that's fair. But Ganondorf went from looking like a titan against Neku to underperforming his so-so 2013 stats. This was especially bad early on as Ganondorf struggled to get much above 60% during the power hour and then bled through the night vote, losing outright in Asia and Eastern Europe. In his favour, he did eventually stem the bleeding at 59%.

What could this mean?: Beats me. There was an argument I believed before the contest began that because Ganondorf was not in Breath of the Wild much, he would not receive the same boost as Link and Zelda. Indeed "Ganondorf" hasn't been in a Zelda game since 2006. Then he looked terrific against Neku. Was it SFF after all? Did Chun-Li drain some of his Nintendo support (Ganondorf being pretty low on the SFF totem pole)? I can't say that Ganondorf's victory is assured against Dante anymore, but I won't rush to say Dante's now the favourite - Chun-Li could simply be very good. Capcom in general has looked great except against the winner of Division 1. Additionally, we got another really stellar Nintendo showing in this match. This is the kind of result that throws the whole division wide open, there are now four potential winners and that's really exciting.
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wow it's almost like you can't trust big blowouts against bad fodder

I feel like someone said that
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Maybe TWEWY just sucks now.
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I mean TWEWY should start sucking eventually.

Then again gameFAQs.

Day 17, Match 3 - Vivi vs. Aya Brea
(3) Vivi: 75.45% - (11) Aya: 24.55%

What happened?: This match is a bit weird in that it looks like a round 1 result - an established strong character beats down fodder that makes you wonder "how did they get in?". That's really all there is to say, the trends were very steady which makes sense as they are both PS1 Square characters. The only slight exception is Vivi's killer board vote, over 80% in the first few minutes.

What could this mean?: Sully is as bad as he looked, and Yu is slightly redeemed, but only slightly. Other than that not much to say, it lined up almost exactly with the projected result based on 2013. That does make me think that Vivi is not the monster he was then, as there is no way Aya has maintained her strength, but he still looked great. Again, this division is wide open.

Day 17, Match 4 - Donkey Kong vs. Leon Kennedy
(10) Donkey Kong: 55.67% - (2) Leon: 44.33%

What happened?: There had been rumblings of this upset as Nintendo looked better and better throughout round 1, especially when K. Rool vs. Shepard happened. And here we are. Donkey Kong came out somewhat ahead but what is really remarkable is that he built his lead, with dong expanding from under 53% to nearly 56%, and then held it overnight, against a Resident Evil character. This was buoyed by good DK showings in Europe (this also happened against Tidus, and I think DK is just really good in Europe). In the end this was a massive upset for both the board and the site at large.

What could this mean?: I don't think this reflects poorly on Leon as some do. We've seen Resident Evil and Capcom at large do very well, and Nintendo, especially DK characters, have stunned us. I guess this also redeems Tidus - he was only 1.3% off of Leon's percentage. Leon is the most Nintendo-aligned RE character so that might have contributed a bit, but this was a stellar showing for DK. I joked about him winning the division in an earlier writeup today but it might happen and that's incredible. It does make sense that he in particular would be so much stronger - when these contests started, DK was irrelevant. He hadn't starred in a game for years, he was running on Mario spinoffs and Smash Bros. The biggest DK game from 1999-2010 was probably Donkey Kong Jungle Beat, and that's hilarious. DK should have been stronger, he was a legend, his series sold as much as Zelda (with DKC being the highest selling game of a generation). But he had fallen a long way since the SNES days. Now his series is back, people love it, SNES nostalgia is at an all time high, and he even became a meme. This is a whole new Donkey Kong and I'm excited to see how he does against Vivi. I never thought I'd say this, but Donkey Kong might be an Elite.
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LeonhartFour posted...

wow it's almost like you can't trust big blowouts against bad fodder

I feel like someone said that

And if Ganondorf does beat Dante? Like, it's not like Chun-Li should be bad now or anything. That's what's exciting about this result - who knows!!!
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Depends on how badly he beats him. Regardless of the end result, people thought Ganondorf was going to roll the entire division because of a win over Neku Sakuraba.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

I never thought I'd say this, but Donkey Kong might be an Elite.

About as elite as Joe Flacco's one playoff run.
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Lightning Strikes posted...

Day 17, Match 3 - Vivi vs. Aya Brea
(3) Vivi: 75.45% - (11) Aya: 24.55%

What could this mean?: Sully is as bad as he looked, and Yu is slightly redeemed, but only slightly. Other than that not much to say, it lined up almost exactly with the projected result based on 2013. That does make me think that Vivi is not the monster he was then, as there is no way Aya has maintained her strength, but he still looked great. Again, this division is wide open.

Why is there any reason to think that a nostalgic Square character on a nostalgia-focused website didn't maintain her (admittedly measly) strength? It's not like there's been some significant fluctuation in her series or among similar characters in general since 2013 that could have caused her to decline.

Well I just dunno if Aya is that nostalgic.

Day 18, Match 1 - Zero vs. Knuckles
(1) Zero: 56.15% - (9) Knuckles: 43.85%

What happened?: A lot of people were expecting Zero to roll this given how good X looked, and that didn't happen though he did win clearly. He looked fairly good overnight after a rough start (Sonic early vote) but then dropped quickly and held steady above 56% thanks to Europe and its general pro-Sonic anti-Mega Man stance.

What could this mean?: This match was surprising at first glance but aligns almost exactly with the 2010 stats. A restored Sonic franchise suggests that this result makes sense, and Zero still looks good. I no longer think he will win the division however, but not because of this result.

Day 18, Match 2 - Master Hand vs. Wario
(12) Master Hand: 39.03% - (12) Wario: 60.97%

What happened?: Wario's victory here was never really in question, the Hand is mainly good for hilariously eliminating FF characters and is not an actual Nintendo icon. Master HAnd had a strong first two hours but after that this was a very consistent match, to be expected given the overlap.

What could this mean?: Pecking order in action. Wario is a legit Nintendo star in his own right with two beloved series, Master Hand is a glove. Also while SFF should obviously be taken into account, it is hilarious to think that Monika might beat Noctis. This match did kind of hammer home how bad Noctis is if nothing else. Wario might look good against Zero next round, but isn't going to win or anything.
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Day 18, Match 3 - Yoshi vs. Velvet Crowe
(3) Yoshi: 70.63% - (6) Velvet: 29.37%

What happened?: Standard "happy to be here character is strong enough to win one match then loses easily" round 2 match. Velvet didn't look too bad here actually. This is especially true early on where she was keeping it below 70% for a good long while - I guess Tales is even more frontloaded than Nintendo. Otherwise not much to report, this was an easy win and very steady.

What could this mean?: Again, Velvet bowed out respectably. Notably better than Shantae, but also better than Jak in 2010. Velvet is probably a reasonable fodder line protagonist and I would imagine not too far from Lloyd in strength. Now maybe with her popularity and Berseria's critical and sales success she can replace Lloyd as the token Tales rep in every contest!

Day 18, Match 4 - Pikachu vs. Kratos
(7) Pikachu: 63.41% - (2) Kratos: 36.59%

What happened?: Well Kratos was utterly wasted in this spot. This was like a less savage version of Pikachu's first match, with a huge opening for Pikachu followed by big drops (and even cuts) over the rest of the match. Kratos cut a solid 4% from Pikachu's post board vote high. Again this showed Pokemon getting a huge advantage from double voting, Kratos was at over 40% from non-users. Geographic trend wise this was fairly steady outside of Asia and Southern Europe, but I just wanted an excuse to note that unlike the rest of the region, Kratos won in Ireland and I contributed to that! That is probably the only time I will mention Ireland in one of these.

What could this mean?: Yeah, Pikachu is winning this division. He is a true Elite without a doubt, and the only thing stopping him is if Yoshi wins by pecking order - I expect 60/40s for both of Pikachu's next matches in the division. The funny thing is, this match actually highlights how much Kratos boosted over his dismal 2013 showing, Pikachu would have been well over 70% on that Kratos. It was not nearly enogh though. This is the other example of bad bracket placement - Kratos and Leon should have been switched in hindsight - Leon getting fed to Pikachu is more acceptable in light of his loss to DK. Anyway, other than possibly Mega Man X, Pikachu is likely the strongest non-Noble Niner. Those last two contest showings were legit after all.
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Day 19, Match 1 - Sora vs. Pokemon Trainer Red
(1) Sora: 49.1% - (9) Red: 50.9%

What happened?: I love it when a debated match delivers. This was the first true bracket killer of the contest. Red got off to an early lead then never got much further than his early 6-700. Sora cut a bit, but their similar trends made this match effectively dead even for most of its length.

What could this mean?: Well a bunch of brackets are dead. This match was so close (as expected) that it is difficult to draw solid conclusions regarding Red's strength. However he probably wins the division, but will face some surprisingly strong competition.

Day 19, Match 2 - Crash Bandicoot vs. Big Boss
(5) Crash: 47.13% - (4) Big Boss: 52.87%

What happened?: And now for a less expectedly close match. The writing was somewhat on the wall with this one with Big Boss not easily beating Ridley and Crash and Spyro looking great. The match was pretty steady, though early on it looked like Crash might take the whole thing. He didn't, but he did thoroughly embarrass Big Boss.

What could this mean?: This match is probably more about Crash's newfound strength than Big Boss looking poor, but it isn't good news for him considering the last match as well. Red is going to the division finals with almost no doubt.

Next half of this batch in the mining I am afraid!
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