Board 8 > ~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~

(+) Yeah! (+)

Sorry about that!

Day 19, Match 3 - Alucard vs. Yuna
(3) Alucard: 59.62% - (6) Yuna: 40.38%

What happened?: A surprise showing from Alucard. He looked really good here, especially early on. Yuna did gain 2% quite quickly after the first hour, but the match was steady after that. Overall this was a whopping 7.6% overperformance for Alucard based on 2010.

What could this mean?: Alucard looks like a potential division winner with this performance. I think 51% on Sora is better than under 60% on Yuna, but only just - the division final should be a belter. Yuna didn't look especially inspiring in round 1, but I think a lot of this is to do with Alucard's strength. Once again, Castlevania stock is pretty high right now thanks to rereleases, Netflix series and Smash Bros., so we are seeing a near peak, if not peak, Alucard.

Day 19, Match 4 - Kefka vs. Bomberman
(7) Kefka: 59.82% - (15) Bomberman: 40.18%

What happened?: One of the least crazy Kefka matches is still weird. He dominated this match in the first hour, then lost a lot of steam, ending up under 60% and just ahead of what Dracula backwards got on Yuna. He made Bomberman look better than L-Block which is certainly new. Him once again being incredibly frontloaded just highlights how different Final Fantasy VI is from the rest of the series, too.

What could this mean?: Well unless Bomberman is better than Yuna, Kefka is not winning the division. I do think L-Block is just weak now, people are done with the joke. Crazy to think that Final Fantasy's only division winner may be Sephiroth, even with VI looking as good as it is. Or maybe he'll somehow look amazing against Alucard, you never know with Kefka.
---

Is it just me or are there an awful lot of instances of rematches going the other way this year? Like DK > Tidus, Alucard > Yuna, and Bowser > Charizard.

This also means that after reversing her four-way losses to Master Chief last character battle, Yuna saw her four-way win over Alucard reversed this one. Heh.

Methinks Master Chief will get 47% on Tails.
---

What do you mean, going the other way? I'm pretty sure Alucard and Bowser were the favorites.

Because Alucard has lost to Yuna and Bowser has lost to Charizard in the past.
---

ZeldaTPLink posted...

What do you mean, going the other way? I'm pretty sure Alucard and Bowser were the favorites.

He means we've seen matches between those characters before and (expected or not) the winner flipped.
---

Oh ok

Bowser vs Kirby is another strong contender to have a flip.

Day 20, Match 1 - 2B vs. Ness
(1) 2B: 53.72% - (9) Ness: 46.28%

What happened?: Looking at the board's predictions on this match, I was a bit surprised to learn that Ness was the favourite. Narrowly, but then a fair few few people had Shadow winning this match as well. This was seriously underestimating 2B, she's no fraud and earned a high seed even without the NRT win. As it happens, she looked pretty good here, beating Ness by almost as much as Big Daddy in 2010 (which was against a likely weaker Ness). With how good Big Daddy looked then, I think 2B's likely of reasonable strength here. What's really notable about this match is that 2B actually won the registered user vote over a Nintendo character, and slightly bled percentage as well, starting over 55%. This is a big surprise since Nier hasn't looked that great here before now, but that could definitely have changed.

What could this mean?: As said 2B looked pretty good here, Ness isn't that weak and has reason to have improved since last time with Smash and his game actually releasing in Europe. She probably looks decent against Bowser in the next round. Also I think this validates what I was thinking earlier about Cayde-6 being closer to Sandal than Tanner as weakest (well, other than Draven) characters go.

Day 20, Match 2 - Charizard vs. Bowser
(12) Charizard: 43.45% - (4) Bowser: 56.55%

What happened?: This match was hotly debated until round 1, when Charaizard underperformed and Bowser looked like a god. This is actually a rematch of 2010, when Charizard won comfortably. This time Bowser not only flipped the result, but by more than the original margin. Some trends got flipped here, including Pokemon being frontloaded - Charizard actually gained as the match went on.

What could this mean?: Is Charizard a fraud? Well, slightly, he was one of the most rallied Pokemon and doesn't have that boost any more. However, Bowser looked really great in round 1 and is likely a monster now. In addition to Bowser probably beating Kirby again and taking the division, expect some serious strength from Mario when we get to him - the whole franchise has looked great.
---

Day 20, Match 3 - Phoenix Wright vs. Ike
(3) Phoenix: 50.67% - (6) Ike: 49.33%

What happened?: Another debated match that delivered. Phoenix for once didn't actually slay with the board vote, only carrying it with around 55%, which really shows a lot of fondness for Ike as well. The two characters are in many ways quite similar, and thus the trends were very steady, with Phoenix ahead but the two neck and neck throughout the day. Phoenix did manage to gradually increase his small lead to over 500 votes, but Ike started to cut toward the end. It wasn't enough though, and Phoenix won with under 51%. This match is also significant because it is the first time the registered user bonus has changed the winner, and honestly it is probably largely down to this board. That's a crazy thing to think about.

What could this mean?: The two are so similar it's tough to say. We could see a really good show against Kirby next round or Phoenix could just look to be around Isaac. It did make me wonder though - is Phoenix the only character to unambiguosly get stronger every contest? He's the only one that comes to mind.

Day 20, Match 4 - Isaac vs. Kirby
(10) Isaac: 29.71% - (2) Kirby: 70.29%

What happened?: A pretty standard easy win for Kirby, that was very consistent after the first hour, which makes sense as they are both Nintendo. Kirby did slightly better than projected as well.

What could this mean?: Not much, Isaac didn't get absolutely destroyed despite likely SFF which was nice. I would have liked to see him over 30%, but he easily beat Guile and that's very significant for him.
---

Kirby is so far the only 2 seed in round 3.
---

Day 21, Match 1 - Squall Leonheart vs. Garrus Vakarian
(1) Squall: 64.02% - (8) Garrus: 35.98%

What happened?: Squall failed to double Garrus, who struggled with Ramza. He actually slightly underperformed what he was projected to do on 2013 Garrus. He also didn't make the big gains he did last time either, only building 1% from the Power Hour.

What could this mean?: Poor showing for Squall. Garrus did not look good last round so Squall should look better than this. Tough to see him winning the division.

Day 21, Match 2 - The Boss vs. Zelda
(12) The Boss: 29.3% - (4) Zelda: 70.7%

What happened?: Zelda in full beat mode, blowing a strong character away. She also held her lead very well, finishing only 0.4% from her peak

What could this mean?: I won't believe in any kind of MGS drop until they face someone more consistent, not candidates for healthy boosts. Really Zelda is just likely at her peak. She should have no problem winning the division.
---

Day 21, Match 3 - D.Va vs. Fox McCloud
(14) D.Va: 28.48% - (11) Fox: 71.52%

What happened?: Well RallyFAQs is officially dead. D.Va looked like plain fodder (or fodder line at best), and was frontloaded once again. Fox built his lead pretty steadily.

What could this mean?: Rallies won't happen unless there is a real zeitgeist that I don't think one Overwatch character has any more. Fox likely wins against Aerith, too.

Day 21, Match 4 - Captain Toad vs. Aerith Gainsborough
(10) Captain Toad: 40.01% - (15) Aerith: 59.99%

What happened?: This match is weird in that it was an almost exact copy of Aerith's round 1 match. She arguably underperforms against a low tier Mario character. Not much else to say. Also Allen mucked up Captain Toad's name again.

What could this mean?: Same as the Waluigi match really. Fox probably beats Aerith, not much else to say.
---

Lightning Strikes posted...

I won't believe in any kind of MGS drop until they face someone more consistent, not candidates for healthy boosts.

did you not look at today's match before you posted this

also Crash Bandicoot would never threaten 2010 or 2013 Big Boss, "healthy" boost or not

that guy was strong enough to beat Kirby and Luigi
---

I did indeed write it beforehand in keeping with the aim. MMX is a beast though.

Day 22, Match 1 - Geralt vs. Simon Belmont
(1) Geralt: 52.19% - (9) Simon: 47.81%

What happened?: After Geralt didn't blow away Rosalina and Simon beat Ryu Hayabusa, this match looked very close, and it was. Geralt struggled in the first three hours with the lead going back and forth until he eventually started to build his lead. By the end he was somewhat firmly ahead.

What could this mean?: Again, not a world-beating performance for Geralt but a solid one. Anyone who can beat Ryu Hayabusa is at least pretty good. In combination with the next match he looks like he has a solid shot at making the division finals. Also it's exciting that (if Aqua beats KOS-MOS) there may be three new characters making it into the third round, all of whom modern, partially due to favourable seeding but also in defiance of the (earned, let's be honest) stereotypes about GameFAQs.

Day 22, Match 2 - Pac-Man vs. Bayonetta
(12) Pac-Man: 47.93% - (4) Bayonetta: 52.07%

What happened?: Another close match, but with different trends. After struggling in the board vote, Bayonetta leapt ahead but Pac-Man eventually started making some gains, stopping her from getting too far ahead. The end result was a very similar result to Geralt's match in a very similar match-up, setting up a very exciting round 3 match.

What could this mean?: I wouldn't say this speaks poorly of Bayonetta, as this is probably the strongest Pac-Man has ever been. However, you could say much the same of Simon so that Geralt/Bayonetta match is wide open. Also, the idea of Riku being somewhat close to Sans is pretty funny.
---

Lightning Strikes posted...

MMX is a beast though.

a beast who should only get 62% on Ocelot based on Red in 2010
---

Day 22, Match 3 - Auron vs. Vincent Valentine
(3) Auron: 55.8% - (9) Vincent: 44.2%

What happened?: Oh how the mighty have fallen. Before this match, Vincent had never lost a 1v1 match to a non-Noble Niner, his only non-N9 loss at all being in a very screwy 2013 match. However he looked pretty bad in 2013 even despite the external factors he went up against. He then looked like trash against Magus, squeaking by. Auron didn't look great in round 1 (though Lucina has almost certainly boosted) but he easily dispatched Vincent. This was ugly in the early vote, with Vincent losing by more than Lucina, but to his credit he did gain a lot as the match went on, 4% after the first hour. The FFVII anti-vote is alive and well. Even without it though, Vincent failing to get 45% on a non-Noble Niner is humiliating.

What could this mean?: Final confirmation of Vincent's new place in these things: a midcarder. Sounds crazy right? Admittedly it's hard to say much about strength from this because we don't have a firm read on current Auron yet. Additionally, there may be some screwy SFF going on, they are both post-SNES FF undead "badasses", and it could go either way. It could be in favour of Vincent because of VII's prevalence over X, or in favour of Auron because he's actually a well written character. Either way I'm now very curious to see how Auron does in his next match.

Day 22, Match 4 - Sub-Zero vs. Claire Redfield
(10) Sub-Zero: 66.26% - (15) Claire: 33.74%

What happened?: A dominant showing for Sub-Zero. This does line up with 2013 estimates so maybe it's not a shock, but he still looked really good here, especially early on where he was over 70% during the board vote.

What could this mean?: Hey, Shulk could have made it to round 3 if you swapped out Sub-Zero! Anyway if Sub-Zero beats Auron he should easily win the division. Great showing from him.
---

Day 23, Match 1 - Luigi vs. Frog
(1) Luigi: 61.63% - (8) Frog: 38.37%

What happened?: This match raised eyebrows for about 25 minutes as Frog seemed to be keeping Luigi under 60%. That quickly changed though, going to almost exactly in line with projections and not moving much for the rest of the match.

What could this mean?: Not much in terms of strength with both Nintendo and Chrono Trigger looking stronger. But it does show that Chrono Trigger is one of the few things that can top Nintendo with that early GameFAQs vote.

Day 23, Match 2 - Master Chief vs. Miles "Tails" Prower
(5) Master Chief 44.51% - (13) Tails: 55.49%

What happened?: Another upset we all saw coming after the contest started. Master Chief chokes again, but he did gain a lot of percentage after a bad start. This was 60/40 at first but ended more like a 55/45.

What could this mean?: Honestly the main new takeaway from this is that Chief very marginally beats Drake. It is a shame we didn't get that match, it would have been a good one.
---

Day 23, Match 3 - Tifa vs. Mewtwo
(3) Tifa: 58.1% - (11) Mewtwo: 41.9%

What happened?: A result that was a shock to some, but not to others. Tifa won fairly easily and looked very strong early on in a match without much in the way of trends.

What could this mean?: Is Mewtwo a fraud? Well, kind of. 2013 round 3+ Mewtwo is the most fraudulent fraud. Otherwise this performance was exactly where he shpuld be. Tifa remains one of the few post-SNES FF characters to not weaken significantly. Just her and Vivi for sure.

Day 23, Match 4 - Revolver Ocelot vs. Mega Man X
(10) Ocelot: 31.59% - (2) X: 68.41%

What happened?: X won easily overperforming by about 6% over the stats. For a while it looked like he would break 70% but he calmed down after the first few hours.

What could this mean?: Fantastic showing by X who should win the division. People are saying Ocelot has weakened, and he should have done better going off of Red. However, I think we are also seeing X at his peak, and he is nearly a Noble Niner.
---

Day 24, Match 1 - Sephiroth vs. Captain Falcon
(1) Sephiorth: 64.93% - (9) Falcon: 35.07%

What happened?: Other than the pretty hilarious board vote, this was a pretty standard match. Sephiroth looked bad early on but quickly rose to normal levels. In the end this performance was exactly where it was projected to have been.

What could this mean? Best case scenario for Seph he hasn't fallen from 2013 and might even have risen very slightly! Of course, unlike basically every other Nintendo character Captain Falcon has been precisely nowhere so I wouldn't expect much of a boost - we've already seen different characters boost to different levels. So all in all this was a standard performance for Sephiroth, Ryu is the real test.

Day 23, Match 2 - Amaterasu vs. Lara Croft
(5) Amaterasu: 54.91% - (4) Lara: 45.09%

What happened?: Not much! Amaterasu had a big lead early on but slowly lost it (a pretty big 4% drop) over the first four hours, and eventually the match settled on a fairly standard 55/45 split. This match too was exactly where the stats projected it to be.

What could this mean?: Also not much! The only thing I can really say is that Lara definitely looks to have retained her 2013 strength, good showing for her. Otherwise fairly Ho-hum.
---

Day 23, Match 3 - Ryu vs. Commander Shepard
(3) Ryu: 66.55% - (6) Shepard: 33.45%

What happened?: The beat down we all knew was coming. Before this contest Shepard would have come very close to Ryu, and here he got doubled. As good as Street Fighter has looked this contest, Shepard has clearly had a near-Gordon level drop.

What could this mean?: Just that Shepard might top Gordon for the biggest drop of the contest. Western characters are getting a lot of flack, but Lara didn't drop, Kratos got stronger, Geralt looks good. The truth is here have just been a lot of Western franchises that have just dropped the ball lately and weakened severely as a result.

Day 23, Match 4 - KOS-MOS vs. Aqua
(10) KOS-MOS: 57.38% - (2) Aqua: 42.62%

What happened?: Aqua disappointed a bit here, looking worse than Ellie. KOS-MOS also looked very frontloaded again, declining from over 60% at the start. She also did very well in Europe which is novel but significant.

What could this mean?: Aqua's not bad but I think KOS-MOS has looked her best in some time. I do legitimately think Xenoblade 2 is a big part of that, she has almost Nintendo-like trends and Xenoblade's good in Europe while Xenosaga is not. I think she will outperform both Lloyd and Shepard against Ryu next round.
---

KOS-MOS has been quite the surprise, both in contest performance (though her fourpack was mostly a victim of overhype) and in causing a whiner to appear.
---

Depending on how she does against Ryu (who has looked really damn good himself) KOS-MOS may well be a low-key star of this contest. Also I mucked up the days for three of those last batch lols.

Day 25, Match 1 - Dante vs. Ganondorf
(1) Dante: 43.6% - (4) Ganondorf: 56.4%

What happened?: And now we resume our regularly scheduled Ganondorf performance. This became less and less surprising as we saw more of Zelda and Ryu. These two have been nearly consistently neck-and-neck in the stats, and a lot of people were thinking DMC5 hype (which certainly seems to be a thing) would push Dante over the top here. Then round one happened and Ganondorf became an easy favourite. THEN round 2 happened and it was back to being tight again... But I guess not. Ganondorf jumped ahead early and never looked back, only losing about 1.5% over the course of the match.

What could this mean?: Ganondorf looked like a true elite here, his best showing in a very long time if not ever. Dante looked really good for two straight rounds, at least doing what he was supposed to, so for Ganondorf to overperform by 6%, that's quite significant. It also raises the question, how strong is Chun-Li? Luster pointed out that she has been steadily rising in SF character polls, and Ryu has looked fantastic. I guess she's just really good after all (our data on her is quite limited to be fair).

Day 25, Match 1 - Vivi vs. Donkey Kong
(3) Vivi: 54.98% - (10) Donkey Kong: 45.02%

What happened?: The dream is dead. These two had met twice before, with Vivi winning with 56.47% and 56.29% two years apart. This match had some hype behind it thanks to DK's incredible performance against Leon, and was close during the board vote before settling into a relatively firm lead for Vivi. DK did make up 1.3% over their last match though, which is something.

What could this mean?: Vivi has looked like an elite for a while now and was just too far out of Dong's reach. DK making up that 1.3% probably hints at an even bigger boost for DK since Vivi is almost certainly stronger than in 2010 as well (no idea why that happened). Though I will say that DK may well have been siphoning a bit of Nintendo support from Leon, making him look even better in round 2. DK is a choker no more regardless. Vivi still has a shot at taking the division, although Ganondorf certainly looks like the favourite. We just have to assume that Dante wouldn't choke to DK too!
---

Day 25, Match 3 - Zero vs. Wario
(1) Zero: 60.25% - (13) Wario: 39.75%

What happened?: This was a bit of a surprise. Zero is projected to usually do more like a doubling or even 70% on Wario. During the board vote that's what it looked like it would be. But then Wario kept making percentage gains and kept bringing it closer and closer, altogether leading to a pretty respectable 40% showing for Wario. Wario is definitely another silent star of this contest - his wins haven't been flashy, but he has been quietly having his best showing ever.

What could this mean?: In the context of Wario's previous appearances this makes a bit more sense. Wario has never been able to escape some sort of nasty SFF situation until now. I think we're just now seeing how strong he actually is, a decent to high midcarder. Also Noctis keeps seeming weaker which is hilarious - barely ahead of Primrose. Does he even beat her? Probably not given that those that overlap would likely prefer Primrose to BlandyMcProtagonist. Noctis is definitely the big loser of the contest so far.

Day 25, Match 4 - Yoshi vs. Pikachu
(3) Yoshi: 45.2% - (7) Pikachu: 54.8%

What happened?: Another once debated match that became more of a foregone conclusion as the contest raged on. Yoshi did keep it close early on but that stopped with the board vote, and not even Yoshi could win over Pikachu's incredible GameFAQs vote. In the end this was a 55/45 win for Pikachu and if you can do that to Yoshi you're elite - if we want to go way back 2006 Snake (the first really great Snake showing) only did 57%. The geographical trends for this one were a bit strange too - Yoshi won in most of continental Europe (and Ireland), which surprised me.

What could this mean?: Pikachu's a monster and will win the division with no problem. Not much else to say by this point.
---

@Lightning_Strikes Hey in your Zero VS Wario match, you have Wario with bold! I mean you should have Zero right?
---

Gah, curse me for not proofreading that. And double curse GameFAQs' time limit on edits. Thanks very much for letting me know.
---

@Lightning_Strikes Yeah I tried to edit something in my analysis too and the time limit passed. Come on now!
---

i'll change it when i archive everything itt on thursday

great job as always!! keep it up, very entertaining reads
---

Day 26, Match 1 - Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Big Boss
(9) Red: 52.18% - (4) Big Boss: 47.82%

What happened?: A lot of the hallmarks of this contest. A debated match that gets less debated over time, then looks close for a bit but then isn't. Big Boss ended up just over 1% behind Sora in the end.

What could this mean?: Big Boss didn't look too bad here after all, and I am definitely a sceptic of the effect of that picture. Then again, Red has a big challenge nect round so we'll see how strong he really is then.

Day 26, Match 2 - Alucard vs. Kefka
(3) Alucard: 59.44% - (4) Kefka: 40.56%

What happened?: A repeat of Alucard's great showing against Yuna. Except there where Alucard started big and dropped here he started small and increased. The end result was very very similar.

What could this mean?: Look for consistency in Kefka at your peril, but this was another stellar showing for Alucard. He looks like a division winner here, though I do think both of his great performances in the last two rounds have a bit of an asterisk next to them. Yuna didn't look very good and Kefka is Kefka. Also Peach looks legit now, potentially number 3 in the division.
---

Lightning Strikes posted...

Big Boss didn't look too bad here after all, and I am definitely a sceptic of the effect of that picture. Then again, Red has a big challenge nect round so we'll see how strong he really is then.

yeah the problem is that I think we have the Red who's closer to the one who struggled to beat Ocelot than the one who ran through the bracket in 2013

Big Boss could've lost even with a good picture but it's because he's not as strong as he used to be
---

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I mean TWEWY should start sucking eventually.

Then again gameFAQs.

TWEWY has never not sucked. Neither the game nor its characters have ever won a match. The game has only been in 1v1s (where it lost to something called Dead Rising), while the characters... well, admittedly both representatives in 2008 got saddled with fourpacks with three midcarders, or at least two midcarders and a fodder that's higher on the Square totem pole, but Neku has since lost to Laharl and Catherine.

Which again brings me back to Dead Rising > TWEWY. Dead Rising lost to Persona 4 the following round. Combine that with Neku's loss to Catherine and you have a Square product that is literally sub-Atlus. I mean, I love Atlus but I have no illusions of them having any contest strength.

Lightning Strikes posted...

The writing was somewhat on the wall with this one with Big Boss not easily beating Ridley

Ridley's not weak! He's just had the misfortune to always draw a strong first-round opponent. Look at his percentages in all of his losses and look who those losses were to. Ridley looks like a low midcarder, and unlike many of our winless characters, it looks like it's only a matter of time.

I wouldn't advocate rallying to get him a better seed, though, because it's really luck of the draw. Every seed line has wildly fluctuating strength, and if we get him a 2-seed he'll probably just get fed to Rikku or something.

igordebraga posted...

KOS-MOS has been quite the surprise, both in contest performance (though her fourpack was mostly a victim of overhype) and in causing a whiner to appear.

Hopefully this guy turns out to be as much fun as ertyu.
---

Yup though we've never really had a good read on her strength.

Day 26, Match 3 - 2B vs. Bowser
(1) 2B: 41.81% - (4) Bowser: 58.19%

What happened?: A pleasant surprise performance for 2B, looking really good here and not too far from Charizard. She also did better with GameFAQs users, one of very few characters to beat Nintendo in this regard (and one of the biggest Nintendo beneficiaries at that). She was also more frontloaded which is rare.

What could this mean?: That 2B is legit, which I had expected. She did about as well as Big Daddy on Ness, who was legit, and Ness is probably better now. So it just follows that she would be good as well. This doesn't reflect poorly on Bowser at all I think, 2B beats Phoenix without much trouble.

Day 26, Match 4 - Phoenix Wright vs. Kirby
(3) Phoenix Wright: 31.69% - (2) Kirby: 68.31%

What happened?: Wanna see Phoenix Wright lose the board vote? Put him up against Kirby. Phoenix did still do better in the board vote than the rest of the match though, quickly dropping to below a doubling. He did do better with users than non-users, but only by about 1% this time which is much lower. In the end he was not that far off of Isaac.

What could this mean?: Honestly this was kind of a disappointing showing for Phoenix. He should be ahead of Isaac by more than that. I do think it owes to the same factor that led his registered user boost to be smaller this time - Kirby is one of those few characters who inspires the same kind of frothing loyalty that Phoenix Wright does. This bodes quite well for Kirby against Bowser. It will be close but I think he will have the GameFAQs boost on his side.
---

Day 27, Match 1 - Squall Leonheart vs. Zelda
(1) Squall: 36.68% - (4) Zelda: 63.32%

What happened?: The most hilarious result of the contest by far. We've seen close matches seem less close as they draw near then turn into easy wins, but this was ridiculous! Squall has historically been a little bit ahead of Zelda, but Nintendo and Zelda boosting was expected to put Zelda over, and their matches up to this point made her look a good bit better. Then it was close during the board vote, then less close, and less close, and less close. It didn't stop after the Power Hour either, Zelda got over 64% after and was winning multiple updates with over 70% of the vote. Everybody expected the beatdown to calm down in accordance with the trends we have seen, but it did not really. The decline was less than 1%, and the match was as close to a doubling as it was to being 60/40.

What could this mean?: Sure, Final Fantasy has looked a good bit weaker with a couple of exceptions. However, the story here is Zelda. Her previous two performances had been rationalised by AC/MGS collapses but this doesn't seem like that. She is absolutely on that Noble Nine level.She beat Squall substantially worse than post-Brawl announcement Snake did. I also don't think it's the proxy factor some here have suggested either - we have seen her in the bracket without Link twice before and she didn't do this. She is just a monster now plain and simple.

Day 27, Match 2 - Fox McCloud vs. Aerith Gainsborough
(11) Fox: 47.3% - (15) Aerith: 52.7%

What happened?: Fox was the favourite going into this and did not get it done. It looked like it might be close early on, and Aerith never truly pulled away, but Fox actually underperformed his 2010 and 2013 stats here, which has almost never happened for Nintendo this contest. This is compounded by Aerith not looking good against Nintendo twice in a row.

What could this mean?: Going off of Aerith's two previous performances and Fox's match with Jill, I think Fox has dropped. This runs counter to everything else that has been going on with Nintendo this contest. Why? Well, the answer is his series. Nintendo characters boost from Smash Bros. for sure, but the only character who truly gets all his strength from there is Captain Falcon. Fox is a Star Fox character first and foremost, and that series is reeling from Star Fox Zero being the latest in a string of disappointing games going back years and years. That series is less popular now, with Zero reestablishing it as the worst Nintendo franchise. While every other Nintendo character has had franchise revitilisations, Fox's has just gotten worse.
---

Day 27, Match 3 - Geralt vs. Bayonetta
(1) Geralt: 50.88% - (4) Bayonetta: 49.12%

What happened?: Witcher vs. Witch. This was a hell of a match, one of the best of the contest. Geralt was just ahead at the freeze despite losing the board vote. However, Bayonetta sprung to a surprise early lead that seemed fairly substantial. Additionally, despite Geralt coming back from near defeat against Simon to win comfortably, she had not only built a bigger lead, but the European vote was split down the middle rather than heavily favouring Geralt. It looked like he wouldn't do it, and it took him substantially longer to start making significant gains on Bayonetta than against Simon. Eventually he started to cut though, and over hours he slowly retook the lead before again going on to win with a bigger vote lead than Bayonetta ever got.

What could this mean?: Well first and foremost, Geralt is the new Comeback King, in the mold of Frog. He looked good here, and it's great to see a modern, western character do so well. He and 2B are two brand new characters who look like straight up high midcarders and that's great. Is Geralt the strongest western character? He may well exceed Sub-Zero against Auron for sure, but is he stronger than Kratos as well? Hard to say. I hope he does well against Auron, perhaps even pull an upset, but I'm not expecting it.

Day 27, Match 4 - Auron vs. Sub-Zero
(3) Auron: 56.71% - (10) Sub-Zero: 43.29%

What happened?: Finally a boring, straight-forward match! Auron won this fairly comfortably after some worry Sub_Zero might pull off the upset. In the end he won by a bigger margin than against Vincent, but worse than he has done in two contests before this. Sub-Zero climbed a bit as the match went on but not enough to get really close.

What could this mean?: Auron hasn't crashed to Earth like say, Vincent, but he has weakened, by about 3% against Sub-Zero (which looked very steady over all previous contests). Additionally Sub-Zero may well be stronger than Vincent due to possible SFF shenanigans. Auron very likely wins the division, but I do hope that Geralt pulls off the upset.
---

Day 28, Match 1 - Luigi vs. Tails
(1) Luigi: 69.65% - (13) Tails: 30.35%

What happened?: Not much to report here, this was a quite standard beatdown with the likely assistance of SFF. The only really noticeable trend was that as the rallies started to fly in the next match I'll write about, Tails gained a fair bit of percentage. For Mega Man X, this makes sense. For Tifa, this is hilarious.

What could this mean?: Not much to take from this, Luigi looked great here and could easily take the next round still, but with SFF likely we can't get a solid reading of his strength.

Day 28, Match 2 - Tifa Lockheart vs. Mega Man X
(3) Tifa: 50.18% - (2) X: 49.82%

What happened?: This was absolutely crazy, and the most exciting match of the contest by far, one of the best of all time. X got ahead to a small but significant lead of about 52%, more or less what was to be expected of him. At his peak X led by nearly 500 votes, which had been called by many an unbreachable barrier. However, as the night went on Tifa started to make significant gains, eventually leading by almost 200 votes. Then things get crazy. X starts to cut, slowly whittling away Tifa's lead. This is in part due to a reasonably successful rally on r/MegaMan. After many stalls and a comeback lasting hours, X takes the lead, and starts to get ahead by over 80 votes. Judging from their late match trends, it looked like X had Tifa dead to rights. Then the counter rallies begin, first on r/FinalFantasy and then, hilariously, on various hentai subreddits. Things went back and forth as rallies flew furiously, and in the end Tifa got a lead and started to pull ahead in the last several updates. Nonetheless this was still one of the closest matches of all time. With big rallies on both sides (X had the biggest single rally by far but Tifa had numbers on her side) this match did seem to be relatively even and fair, although that's not getting into the Peru shenanigans I am not qualified to talk about here. I just wish the contestant I'm supporting wins in a close match one of these days, that's pretty rare.

What could this mean?: Not much we can draw from this other than small rallies still being a thing, helped by the fact that these two were separated by only two votes (in X's favour) in the users' votes. The two rallies seemed ultimately even based on that breakdown, and thus it's safe to assume that in real strength these two are neck and neck. All those rallies only brought in about 1000 extra votes so it wasn't a matchbreaker by any means. The match against Luigi is still a tossup. As for Tifa herself, she is clearly very strong, though actually underperformed her projections, but this is more due to screwy stats for Tifa and X than any real sign of decline, she is stable.
---

As I said in my topic Porn saves the day!
---

Day 28, Match 3 - Sephiroth vs. Amaterasu
(1) Sephiroth: 61.37% - (5) Amaterasu: 38.63%

What happened?: Sephiroth again slightly underperforms 2013 and significantly underperforms 2010. This looked very bad for him early on as he struggled to get over 60%, but he did start to look better as the match went on, especially as the Tifa rallies started to fly.

what could this mean?: Sure, he's not lost his Noble Nine cred by any means, but the slow weakening of Sephiroth has continued. It is worth noting that he beat Amaterasu by a lot less than Zelda beat Squall, which really highlights Zelda's new power.

Day 28, Match 4 - Ryu vs. KOS-MOS
(3) Ryu: 65.07% - (10) KOS-MOS: 34.93%

What happened?: Another expected Ryu beatdown. It was very stable as well, only moving about 0.7% after the first four hours. The only thing to note really is that KOS-MOS did beat both Lloyd and Shepard as I had thought would happen.

What could this mean?: Ryu very slightly overperformed 2013 projections here but not by much, and both he and KOS-MOS are probably a bit stronger based on their past matches. This was his third very strong performance in a row. No, he's not going to beat Sephiroth (most likely), but he could make it a hell of a match or at least look bad for Sephiroth. It wouldn't surprise me to see Ryu break 45% there.

Glad that there was only one crazy match today!
---

updated the archive! I only really read through these things as I archive now, I'm getting busy with work. great job on keeping up with this, it's a big project and the quality is consistent.
---

tag, really enjoyed these writeups so far
---

Day 29, Match 1 - Ganondorf vs. Vivi
(4) Ganondorf: 51.96% - (3) Vivi: 48.04%

What happened?: This match seemed uncertain as Vivi sewmed to have maintained most of his 2013 strength while Chun-Li aside Ganondorf looked his best ever. The fact that Dante likely squeaks by even current DK was the only thing pushing it in Ganon's favour. Vivi looked like he might pull the upset early on as he benefited from rally spillover, but Ganondorf quickly corrected that into a standard 52/48 match.

What could this mean?: Vivi is a true elite now, but Ganondorf is even more so. His performance here has been overshadowed by Zelda's, but he has been a low key star of the contest. I also think his Link-induced SFF beatdown will be far lesser this time.

Day 29, Match 2 - Zero vs. Pikachu
(1) Zero: 43.44% - (7) Pikachu: 56.56%

What happened?: The expected easy rat victory. Zero did keep it close early on also thanks to rally spillover. However Pikachu quickly broke away leaving this exactly where he was expected to be.

What could this mean?: Zero did not get slaughtered here but Pikachu is clearly right up against the Noble Nine. I think Zelda is stronger however.
---

Save_us.rat
---

I am off to Iceland for a few days so we will see how quickly I can get the next few out!

Day 30, Match 1 - Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Alucard
(9) Red: 46.19% - (3) Alucard: 53.81%

What happened?: After 16 years the plan finally came to fruition. Alucard flew ahead at the start and it never really came close despite Red making up some major ground percentage-wise, fairly unusual for Pokmon. Alucard's most wins ever in a contest before this one was two, and here, with no Noble Nine (except for Sephiroth) he gets four.

What could this mean?: If this doesn't scream "elite" I don't know what does. I am not of the opinion that Red has looked bad here, he beat Sora and Big Boss. I think Alucard has just been great. This has a lot to do with the Netflix show; more people on here have a Netflix subscription than have played Symphony of the Night and that is reportedly one of the most watched Netflix series. Additionally the second season just came out. There have been other factors that have helped him like the recent rerelease. I would rank Smash as a distant third, it has rejuvenated some interest in Castlevania as a whole, but two seconds of Alucard assist trophy from one trailer is not going to cause this on its own. I also think there has been some bandwagon effect, and he has serious potential to look great against Cloud next round.

Day 30, Match 2 - Bowser vs. Kirby
(4) Bowser: 53.86% - (2) Kirby: 46.14

What happened?: Hey, two almost identical results! This match was a major upset for some people, but we have seen this match before with a very similar result. Bowser did do a bit better this time by 1.7%, and built a fair lead after the first 20 minutes, highlighting that Kirby board vote.

What could this mean?: There has been a lit of discussion about SFF and maybe Kirby disappointed here. However, Bowser has looked extremely good this year. People have been sleeping on that a lot. This result wasn't that much of a shocker with that in mind.
---

please do a snap analysis of iceland when you get back

have fun!
---

ZenOfThunder posted...

please do a snap analysis of iceland when you get back

have fun!

Definitely this, complete with what happened and what could this mean sections.

Lightning Strikes posted...

People have been sleeping on that a lot.

I mean giving up 42% to 2B will do that
---

bump
---

Greetings from my hotel room!

Day 31, Match 1 - Zelda vs. Aerith
(4) Zelda: 62.19% - (15) Aerith: 37.81%

What happened?: Not much to say, another stable Zelda beat down. Her ability to hold strong through the day against FF is really impressive. Zelda overperformed herself substantially here, though Aerith did look better than Squall.

What could this mean?: Zelda is still a monster, Aerith has only dropped a bit. I think from the last few days that FF7 has floored while other FFs (not including VI) have rapidly dropped to meet it.

Day 31, Match 2 - Geralt vs. Auron
(1) Geralt: 46.86% - (3) Auron: 53.14%

What happened?: This was a really valiant performance from Geralt, better than Vincent and Sub-Zero on Auron. As always he didn't look great early on but really started to build once Europe woke up. Unfortunately he never got quite within rally striking distance.

What could this mean?: Geralt is really strong, even against a somewhat weakened Auron 47% is great. He is certainly the strongest western character right now (assuming Sub-Zero=>Scorpion, he beats Kratos). I think he also dispels some myths about western characters on here - the problem isn't a broad rejection of western characters, it's stuff like EA and Valve doing their best to actively bury their franchises that weakened those characters. Geralt loojed great, Kratos looked stronger, the MK duo and Lara looked consistent. The west as a whole is not the problem, the problem is individual major western companies and franchises.
---

If Geralt keeps being treated well like that maybe he'll even appear in a Smash DLC!

You know what the two strongest newcomers have in common? Soul Calibur VI. Anyway need to get up very early for my flight back tomorrow but here's two quick ones:

Day 32, Match 1 - Luigi vs. Tifa
(1) Luigi: 48.64% - (3) Tifa: 51.36%

What happened?: Nice to have a relatively normal Tifa match. This was neck and neck at first but Tifa did put it away with the night vote. It wasn't as extreme as the MMX comeback though as is to be expected given Luigi's more global appeal. I don't know of any hentai rallies this time for sure, but the vote totals were elevated by about ~1500 votes. So if anybody knows fill me in. I couldn't follow the match live. This match did end up around where you would expect it to overall.

What could this mean?: The funny thing about Tifa us that she has actually been underperforming her stats. Those were dodgy though. She's clearly top 15 though and has just enough rally power to shift a close match.

Day 32, Match 2 - Sephiroth vs. Ryu
(1) Sephiroth: 60.26% - (3) Ryu: 39.74%

What happened?: Now this was something of a surprise. Sephiroth has looked just okay at best throughout this entire contest to this point. Ryu has looked great. Then Sephiroth overperforms by ~2% on him. The trends were pretty normal so who knows.

What could this mean?: Could this have been rally spillover? It's certainly possible, it helped Sephiroth more obviously than Tifa just looking at the results! The other possibility is Ryu becoming more Playstation associated lately leading to his new strength getting sapped but that's a bit of a reach (FF isn't even a PS thing anymore by a long shot). I will say though, 2013 Ryu is totally unpredictable as a result of Draven and Sephiroth still missed 2010 by 3%, so maybe our expectations for Ryu were just wrong.
---

I survived Iceland! Hot deets tomorrow.
---

Don't die, topic.
---