Board 8 > ~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~

Topic List	Page List: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
LeonhartFour 10/22/18 2:40:07 PM #53:	Well, that was the point of double votes in the first place. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:910966803] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Well, that was the point of double votes in the first place.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 10/22/18 2:42:27 PM #54:	LeonhartFour posted... Well, that was the point of double votes in the first place. Yeah the point I am making is that this system won't stop a full blown rally, but it seems effictive to prevent it from growing at the round 1 stage. <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:910966936] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>LeonhartFour posted...</cite> <quote>Well, that was the point of double votes in the first place.</quote> Yeah the point I am making is that this system won't stop a full blown rally, but it seems effictive to prevent it from growing at the round 1 stage.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/22/18 8:25:19 PM #55:	Gonna get the next batch done in the morning, but my general analysis of the contest so far is simply LOL Square. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:910985351] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Gonna get the next batch done in the morning, but my general analysis of the contest so far is simply LOL Square.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/23/18 9:53:29 AM #56:	Day 4, Match 1 - Yoshi vs. Shantae (3) Yoshi: 74.27% - (14) Shantae: 25.73% What happened?: This was a fairly standard blowout. Shantae is very much a "just happy to be here" character, but did better than a lot of people thought she would. She's weak, but not ultra-fodder. Yoshi soared with the board vote, but then things stabilised below a tripling and Yoshi struggled to get over 74% until the last few hours. It was an uneventful beatdown, but Shantae has something of a moral victory in the fact that she didn't get destroyed. What could this mean?: This wasn't nearly as bad for Yoshi as it might look on the surface. Shantae has well-liked, relatively well-known games with a dedicated fanbase and is essentially a low-tier Nintendo character. Her not getting totally blown out is a testament to her being kind of okay (she did get a 14 seed compared to the 16 seeds of comparable characters like Cuphead and Hat Kid). Regarding Yoshi, he performed very similarly to how Zero did on Primrose and in that match I might lean Shantae, but it's suffice to say that Yoshi and Zero are definitely looking comparable. I wouldn't read too much into this one, I think there is just a bit of underestimation of how weak the new characters are. I'm even starting to think that Cayde-6 might not get annihilated! Day 4, Match 2 - Velvet Crowe vs. James Sunderland (6) Velvet: 61.04% - (11) James: 38.96% What happened?: This was a slightly debated match. The top tier Tales games (by which I mean Symphonia and Vesperia, mainly Symphonia) are pretty good, but the characters have done badly with the exception of 2005. Lloyd is okay, but doesn't get enough support in nominations to get winnable matches anymore. Yuri isn't a disaster, hovering a bit below the fodder line. Those are the two best comparisons or velvet I think. Silent Hill and its characters have never been good, with even Pyramid Head looking fodder line at best. So this was a match between perennial underperformers in a lot of ways. Then it opens and Velvet just destroys James, especially during the board vote. In some ways this was actually the surprise of the day. Velvet winning wasn't a shock after Aya vs. Sully, but the margin was larger and Velvet wasn't from a 90's Square RPG. In the end this was another debated match turned easy victory, and Tales characters got their first win since Lloyd beat Wesker in 2005. What could this mean?: Well, this could easily speak to issues of recognisability and picture quality. James Sunderland just being "James" in the options can't have helped him, and Velvet was a cute anime girl with a striking artstyle. I did think James's pic was ok though, it had the distinctive Silent Hill look to it. More than just that I do think Velvet would have won without too much trouble anyway. Berseria is definitely a top tier Tales game, it is one of very few games in that series to sell over a million and is the best reviewed behind Symphonia and Vesperia (other than some rereleases anyway). The series is a mixed bag and this is one of the good ones. At the end of the day, Yuri would probably win this match too and I can't imagine a world in which Velvet's much weaker than him. So Velvet won this match legit, but the other factors might have helped too. Now let's hope this shuts Black Turtle up about how much he hates Tales. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911012619] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 4, Match 1 - Yoshi vs. Shantae (3) Yoshi: 74.27% - (14) Shantae: 25.73% What happened?: This was a fairly standard blowout. Shantae is very much a "just happy to be here" character, but did better than a lot of people thought she would. She's weak, but not ultra-fodder. Yoshi soared with the board vote, but then things stabilised below a tripling and Yoshi struggled to get over 74% until the last few hours. It was an uneventful beatdown, but Shantae has something of a moral victory in the fact that she didn't get destroyed. What could this mean?: This wasn't nearly as bad for Yoshi as it might look on the surface. Shantae has well-liked, relatively well-known games with a dedicated fanbase and is essentially a low-tier Nintendo character. Her not getting totally blown out is a testament to her being kind of okay (she did get a 14 seed compared to the 16 seeds of comparable characters like Cuphead and Hat Kid). Regarding Yoshi, he performed very similarly to how Zero did on Primrose and in that match I might lean Shantae, but it's suffice to say that Yoshi and Zero are definitely looking comparable. I wouldn't read too much into this one, I think there is just a bit of underestimation of how weak the new characters are. I'm even starting to think that Cayde-6 might not get annihilated! Day 4, Match 2 - Velvet Crowe vs. James Sunderland (6) Velvet: 61.04% - (11) James: 38.96% What happened?: This was a slightly debated match. The top tier Tales games (by which I mean Symphonia and Vesperia, mainly Symphonia) are pretty good, but the characters have done badly with the exception of 2005. Lloyd is okay, but doesn't get enough support in nominations to get winnable matches anymore. Yuri isn't a disaster, hovering a bit below the fodder line. Those are the two best comparisons or velvet I think. Silent Hill and its characters have never been good, with even Pyramid Head looking fodder line at best. So this was a match between perennial underperformers in a lot of ways. Then it opens and Velvet just destroys James, especially during the board vote. In some ways this was actually the surprise of the day. Velvet winning wasn't a shock after Aya vs. Sully, but the margin was larger and Velvet wasn't from a 90's Square RPG. In the end this was another debated match turned easy victory, and Tales characters got their first win since Lloyd beat Wesker in 2005. What could this mean?: Well, this could easily speak to issues of recognisability and picture quality. James Sunderland just being "James" in the options can't have helped him, and Velvet was a cute anime girl with a striking artstyle. I did think James's pic was ok though, it had the distinctive Silent Hill look to it. More than just that I do think Velvet would have won without too much trouble anyway. Berseria is definitely a top tier Tales game, it is one of very few games in that series to sell over a million and is the best reviewed behind Symphonia and Vesperia (other than some rereleases anyway). The series is a mixed bag and this is one of the good ones. At the end of the day, Yuri would probably win this match too and I can't imagine a world in which Velvet's much weaker than him. So Velvet won this match legit, but the other factors might have helped too. Now let's hope this shuts Black Turtle up about how much he hates Tales.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Nanis23 10/23/18 9:56:09 AM #57:	Lightning Strikes posted... I'm even starting to think that Cayde-6 might not get annihilated! LOL --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 <cite>Nanis23 posted [p:911012732] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>I'm even starting to think that Cayde-6 might not get annihilated!</quote> LOL</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/23/18 10:30:13 AM #58:	Day 4, Match 3 - Pikachu vs. Scorpion (7) Pikachu: 66.41% - (10) Scorpion: 33.59% What happened?: PokeFEAR returns. we all knew Pikachu would win, the question was how much. Scorpion has looked good before, he's iconic, albeit not as strong in these as Sub-Zero (good taste, GameFAQS). He couldn't get destroyed right? Wrong. Pikachu flew out the gate here with a stunning 69%. Scorpion was getting destroyed in the early hours of this match. It did start to turn however, with Scorpion cutting nearly a full 3% off of Pikachu as the match went on, even winning updates at points. In the end he escaped the doubling, and this definitely ended up looking less dominant than it did at first. What could this mean?: A lot of people were shaken by this match, I am sceptical. Pikachu gets 64% on Scorpion using 2013 stats, which is only 2% better than this. Add only a slight Mortal Kombat decline (X was three years ago and kind of came and went, and also the next one has not been announced yet leaving the series in a kind of limbo) and this result actually starts looking quite sensible. Pikachu is a true elite, no questioning that, but I'm not expecting him to run rampant by any stretch, at least not on the basis of this match. The one other thing I'll say is that this gives us a really clear view of Pokemon's trends, starting incredibly strong and then calming down. Keep that in mind for close starts in the future. Day 4, Match 4 - Kratos vs. John Marston (2) Kratosi: 73.18% - (15) John Marston: 26.82% What happened?: To set up this match we need to look at God of War's history on GameFAQs. That series used to be really good, and I think a lot of people forget that on this board. All three of the original trilogy games got into the Game of the Year finals, with two of them in the top three. It looked quite good in 2009 and really good in 2010, coming very close to peak Half-Life 2. Kratos kind of followed its fortunes, looking better than ever until a great performance against Charizard in 2010 (however strong you think he really is). Then 2013 happened. Kratos looked absolutely dreadful, struggling to double Travis and Recette then getting just annihilated by Mega Man X and losing to Jill. This follows how people thought of the series. In 2013 constant releases and Ascension had almost killed the series. 2013 Kratos would struggle with Marston, who looked alright against Zelda in 2013 and is helped by the fact that RDR2 releases four days after this match. But then we come to the match and Kratos lets loose, starting big and getting bigger as the match went on before stabilising over 73%. It was almost as big a victory as Yoshi's over Shantae. What could this mean?: This was a dominant performance by Kratos, and I have to imagine it was legit strength. There is talk of SFF but I don't see why there would be more here than Yoshi vs. Shantae or even Pikachu vs. Scorpion, the two are fairly different, one is multiplatform, and is well-loved. Additionally I'm not sure if Marston has fallen to the bottom or anything, RDR is still floating around the top 30 on this site and RDR2 is very hyped. Marston even had his RDR2 art in the match pic I think. So this was a really good showing for Kratos, and if he wasn't running into Pikachu next round he could really run rampant. Going off 2013 an upset is possible, and I'm not expecting it but I would definitely like to see it. It makes sense that Kratos would look this good - God of War 2018 is the Breath of the Wild of the series. It's not just revived the series either, but it has also redeemed Kratos as a character. I think this is the strongest he's ever been and I wish he was in any other division. Hopefully he will give us a good show in his next match. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911014160] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 4, Match 3 - Pikachu vs. Scorpion (7) Pikachu: 66.41% - (10) Scorpion: 33.59% What happened?: PokeFEAR returns. we all knew Pikachu would win, the question was how much. Scorpion has looked good before, he's iconic, albeit not as strong in these as Sub-Zero (good taste, GameFAQS). He couldn't get destroyed right? Wrong. Pikachu flew out the gate here with a stunning 69%. Scorpion was getting destroyed in the early hours of this match. It did start to turn however, with Scorpion cutting nearly a full 3% off of Pikachu as the match went on, even winning updates at points. In the end he escaped the doubling, and this definitely ended up looking less dominant than it did at first. What could this mean?: A lot of people were shaken by this match, I am sceptical. Pikachu gets 64% on Scorpion using 2013 stats, which is only 2% better than this. Add only a slight Mortal Kombat decline (X was three years ago and kind of came and went, and also the next one has not been announced yet leaving the series in a kind of limbo) and this result actually starts looking quite sensible. Pikachu is a true elite, no questioning that, but I'm not expecting him to run rampant by any stretch, at least not on the basis of this match. The one other thing I'll say is that this gives us a really clear view of Pokemon's trends, starting incredibly strong and then calming down. Keep that in mind for close starts in the future. Day 4, Match 4 - Kratos vs. John Marston (2) Kratosi: 73.18% - (15) John Marston: 26.82% What happened?: To set up this match we need to look at God of War's history on GameFAQs. That series used to be really good, and I think a lot of people forget that on this board. All three of the original trilogy games got into the Game of the Year finals, with two of them in the top three. It looked quite good in 2009 and really good in 2010, coming very close to peak Half-Life 2. Kratos kind of followed its fortunes, looking better than ever until a great performance against Charizard in 2010 (however strong you think he really is). Then 2013 happened. Kratos looked absolutely dreadful, struggling to double Travis and Recette then getting just annihilated by Mega Man X and losing to Jill. This follows how people thought of the series. In 2013 constant releases and Ascension had almost killed the series. 2013 Kratos would struggle with Marston, who looked alright against Zelda in 2013 and is helped by the fact that RDR2 releases four days after this match. But then we come to the match and Kratos lets loose, starting big and getting bigger as the match went on before stabilising over 73%. It was almost as big a victory as Yoshi's over Shantae. What could this mean?: This was a dominant performance by Kratos, and I have to imagine it was legit strength. There is talk of SFF but I don't see why there would be more here than Yoshi vs. Shantae or even Pikachu vs. Scorpion, the two are fairly different, one is multiplatform, and is well-loved. Additionally I'm not sure if Marston has fallen to the bottom or anything, RDR is still floating around the top 30 on this site and RDR2 is very hyped. Marston even had his RDR2 art in the match pic I think. So this was a really good showing for Kratos, and if he wasn't running into Pikachu next round he could really run rampant. Going off 2013 an upset is possible, and I'm not expecting it but I would definitely like to see it. It makes sense that Kratos would look this good - God of War 2018 is the Breath of the Wild of the series. It's not just revived the series either, but it has also redeemed Kratos as a character. I think this is the strongest he's ever been and I wish he was in any other division. Hopefully he will give us a good show in his next match.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/24/18 8:01:56 AM #59:	Day 5, Match 1 - Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki (1) Sora: 69.08% - (16) Ryo: 30.92% What happened?: This is probably the most interesting 1/16 match so far. Square has been consistently underperforming (almost, more on that tomorrow) throughout this contest but KH has always been fairly separate. The two series in question here are in very similar situations (Allen likely knew what he was doing on this one) After being dormant for a long time KH hype is starting to gear back up with the rereleases and III finally, finally, being only a couple of months away. Ryo was near ultra-fodder in the early contests then vanished. However, since then Shenmue 3 got a very high profile announcement and is releasing next year, with the first two games getting a rerelease on modern systems just recently. So Ryo may be much stronger. For reference, in 2004 Sora would have gotten 78% in this match, and 2013 Sora would have gotten 81%. And Sora did come sprinting out the gate with nearly 72%, but then that gradually declined to 69%. Sora looked a lot like Pokemon characters here, and that speaks to how the new start time has suppressed the day vote, instead making the traditional "day" characters very front loaded. Ryo didn't look like trash here, but then Sora didn't exactly impress. What could this mean?: Either Kingdom Hearts has weakened as the wait for III has become more and more of a joke, or Shenmue has strengthened significantly. In this case, it's most likely both. A reasonable performance for Sora would have been near a tripling, but I just can't see Ryo making up 12% on Sora from Shenmue 3 hype and 1/2 HD. This was a fairly poor performance from Sora and he't looking great to take the division. Then again who is? Day 5, Match 2 - Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red (8) Neptune: 24.68% - (9) Red: 75.22% What happened?: Neptune's 8 seed might beat Chloe's for the most baffling in the contest. She is the kind of character you expect to show up as a just happy to be here 16 seed. She looked like ultra-fodder, and got blown out accordingly in the second biggest defeat so far. Red started near 80% but then got hit with those frontloaded Pokemon trends and slowly declined, but he still cleaned house. The question is, did he clean house by enough? What could this mean?: Sora vs. Red is one to watch. Red didn't destroy Neptune like he had to to look like the clear favourite but it was still behind only Ganondorf's win for the biggest beatdown thus far. Additionally Neptune has a dedicated fanbase (just look at the seed) which gives her an alright floor even though she's definitely bottom five (so far I'd only solidly take her over Chloe). Ryo would beat Neptune, but 57% beat? I'm not so sure. That match is a true tossup, and their similar trends could mean that it doesn't look settled for a long time. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911066059] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 5, Match 1 - Sora vs. Ryo Hazuki (1) Sora: 69.08% - (16) Ryo: 30.92% What happened?: This is probably the most interesting 1/16 match so far. Square has been consistently underperforming (almost, more on that tomorrow) throughout this contest but KH has always been fairly separate. The two series in question here are in very similar situations (Allen likely knew what he was doing on this one) After being dormant for a long time KH hype is starting to gear back up with the rereleases and III finally, finally, being only a couple of months away. Ryo was near ultra-fodder in the early contests then vanished. However, since then Shenmue 3 got a very high profile announcement and is releasing next year, with the first two games getting a rerelease on modern systems just recently. So Ryo may be much stronger. For reference, in 2004 Sora would have gotten 78% in this match, and 2013 Sora would have gotten 81%. And Sora did come sprinting out the gate with nearly 72%, but then that gradually declined to 69%. Sora looked a lot like Pokemon characters here, and that speaks to how the new start time has suppressed the day vote, instead making the traditional "day" characters very front loaded. Ryo didn't look like trash here, but then Sora didn't exactly impress. What could this mean?: Either Kingdom Hearts has weakened as the wait for III has become more and more of a joke, or Shenmue has strengthened significantly. In this case, it's most likely both. A reasonable performance for Sora would have been near a tripling, but I just can't see Ryo making up 12% on Sora from Shenmue 3 hype and 1/2 HD. This was a fairly poor performance from Sora and he't looking great to take the division. Then again who is? Day 5, Match 2 - Neptune vs. Pokemon Trainer Red (8) Neptune: 24.68% - (9) Red: 75.22% What happened?: Neptune's 8 seed might beat Chloe's for the most baffling in the contest. She is the kind of character you expect to show up as a just happy to be here 16 seed. She looked like ultra-fodder, and got blown out accordingly in the second biggest defeat so far. Red started near 80% but then got hit with those frontloaded Pokemon trends and slowly declined, but he still cleaned house. The question is, did he clean house by enough? What could this mean?: Sora vs. Red is one to watch. Red didn't destroy Neptune like he had to to look like the clear favourite but it was still behind only Ganondorf's win for the biggest beatdown thus far. Additionally Neptune has a dedicated fanbase (just look at the seed) which gives her an alright floor even though she's definitely bottom five (so far I'd only solidly take her over Chloe). Ryo would beat Neptune, but 57% beat? I'm not so sure. That match is a true tossup, and their similar trends could mean that it doesn't look settled for a long time.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
hombad46 10/24/18 8:07:38 AM #60:	No matter who wins between Sora and Red I'm pretty sure they can handle the rest of the division, with Big Boss being more of an issue than whoever the second half of the division brings to the final --- Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!! <cite>hombad46 posted [p:911066211] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>No matter who wins between Sora and Red I'm pretty sure they can handle the rest of the division, with Big Boss being more of an issue than whoever the second half of the division brings to the final</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZenOfThunder 10/24/18 8:13:48 AM #61:	i just wanted to let you know i'm still reading and archiving, this is a really interesting read. i'm sure there are more lurkers enjoying this as well. --- Curator of the Character Battle X Archive https://bit.ly/2yYUo0A <cite>ZenOfThunder posted [p:911066380] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>i just wanted to let you know i'm still reading and archiving, this is a really interesting read. i'm sure there are more lurkers enjoying this as well.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/24/18 10:05:38 AM #62:	Thanks again for the interest guys! Day 5, Match 3 - Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey (5) Crash: 54.18% - (12) Cecil: 45.82% What happened?: In the "Final Fantasy lead loses in a debated match they were the board favourite in" Trilogy, part 4/3, Cecil Harvey Never Wins (CHNW) officially became a thing. With five straight losses he has officially beaten Gordon's record. This match also cements the strength of 90's mascots and the weakness of Final Fantasy. Five years ago this match would have had the same result or worse going the other way around. Cecil always loses but he's not weak, he has come close a few times. This was his to lose. But Crash has boosted just like Spyro did thanks to his rerelease, and Final Fantasylooking generally poor. Once again this started close as board 8 tried to bracket vote their way to victory, but then Crash started to build his lead and it was never in question. What could this mean?: There's not much to say really, Crash has gone from fodder to a reasonable midcarder and CHNW. This result was foreshadowed nicely by Spyro vs. Chun-Li and Zidane vs. Knuckles. I actually originally had Crash in my bracket, before you absolute arseholes (joking, joking) convinced me to change it to Cecil, then those two matches happened and I was like "Oh". This match didn't tell us much new, but it did give further confirmation of a few trends. I also wonder if there's been a Sony boost. Crash owes a lot of his strength to the PS4, as does Kratos and arguably Spyro. Lastly, the casuals continue to beat us - I think the only match the B8 favourite beat the casual favourite on is Sully vs. Aya. Oops. Day 5, Match 4 - Big Boss vs. Ridley (4) Big Boss: 56.66% - (13) Ridley: 43.34% What happened?: Battle of the big bosses. This match is a pretty good test of just how much Nintendo has boosted. Ridley is one of the two gatekeepers of Nintendo's low tier characters (more on the other one in the next day). Big Boss is a low elite. This should have been a 61-65% affair. However, the success of the Switch and especially Ridley's fan-pleasing confirmation for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate mean that he's facing a different Ridley. Ridley came out swinging, at times even looking like he would take the whole match during the board vote, but then Big Boss was able to keep a safe distance throughout. Still, this was a major moral victory for Ridley. What could this mean?: NintendoFEAR, even when it loses. This doesn't speak to Big Boss's weakness but to Ridley's new strength. It's not exactly the round 1 performance you expect of a potential division winner, but Big Boss has no real reason to weaken. If anything him effectively officially supplanting Solid Snake as the main character of Metal Gear should arguably boost him a little. He did have an old man pic but it was the identifiable MGS4 one and it's not 2005-2006 anymore. Really Ridley just looked good. The Nintendo boost is real, and hopefully next time Ridley can get a winnable match (in fact, outside of the Rivalry Rumble his record is as bad as Cecil's, largely due to bad draws). --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911070470] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Thanks again for the interest guys! Day 5, Match 3 - Crash Bandicoot vs. Cecil Harvey (5) Crash: 54.18% - (12) Cecil: 45.82% What happened?: In the "Final Fantasy lead loses in a debated match they were the board favourite in" Trilogy, part 4/3, Cecil Harvey Never Wins (CHNW) officially became a thing. With five straight losses he has officially beaten Gordon's record. This match also cements the strength of 90's mascots and the weakness of Final Fantasy. Five years ago this match would have had the same result or worse going the other way around. Cecil always loses but he's not weak, he has come close a few times. This was his to lose. But Crash has boosted just like Spyro did thanks to his rerelease, and Final Fantasylooking generally poor. Once again this started close as board 8 tried to bracket vote their way to victory, but then Crash started to build his lead and it was never in question. What could this mean?: There's not much to say really, Crash has gone from fodder to a reasonable midcarder and CHNW. This result was foreshadowed nicely by Spyro vs. Chun-Li and Zidane vs. Knuckles. I actually originally had Crash in my bracket, before you absolute arseholes (joking, joking) convinced me to change it to Cecil, then those two matches happened and I was like "Oh". This match didn't tell us much new, but it did give further confirmation of a few trends. I also wonder if there's been a Sony boost. Crash owes a lot of his strength to the PS4, as does Kratos and arguably Spyro. Lastly, the casuals continue to beat us - I think the only match the B8 favourite beat the casual favourite on is Sully vs. Aya. Oops. Day 5, Match 4 - Big Boss vs. Ridley (4) Big Boss: 56.66% - (13) Ridley: 43.34% What happened?: Battle of the big bosses. This match is a pretty good test of just how much Nintendo has boosted. Ridley is one of the two gatekeepers of Nintendo's low tier characters (more on the other one in the next day). Big Boss is a low elite. This should have been a 61-65% affair. However, the success of the Switch and especially Ridley's fan-pleasing confirmation for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate mean that he's facing a different Ridley. Ridley came out swinging, at times even looking like he would take the whole match during the board vote, but then Big Boss was able to keep a safe distance throughout. Still, this was a major moral victory for Ridley. What could this mean?: NintendoFEAR, even when it loses. This doesn't speak to Big Boss's weakness but to Ridley's new strength. It's not exactly the round 1 performance you expect of a potential division winner, but Big Boss has no real reason to weaken. If anything him effectively officially supplanting Solid Snake as the main character of Metal Gear should arguably boost him a little. He did have an old man pic but it was the identifiable MGS4 one and it's not 2005-2006 anymore. Really Ridley just looked good. The Nintendo boost is real, and hopefully next time Ridley can get a winnable match (in fact, outside of the Rivalry Rumble his record is as bad as Cecil's, largely due to bad draws).</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 10/24/18 11:00:22 AM #63:	This thread is great, keep doing it! <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:911073131] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>This thread is great, keep doing it!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/24/18 1:02:28 PM #64:	Lightning Strikes posted... (just look at the seed) I mean B8 dominated nominations so I wouldn't make much of seeding at all for this contest --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911080083] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>(just look at the seed)</quote> I mean B8 dominated nominations so I wouldn't make much of seeding at all for this contest</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZenOfThunder 10/24/18 1:03:55 PM #65:	Yeah I got Metal Sonic a 5 seed just by screaming really loud --- Curator of the Character Battle X Archive https://bit.ly/2yYUo0A <cite>ZenOfThunder posted [p:911080165] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Yeah I got Metal Sonic a 5 seed just by screaming really loud</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#66	Post #66 was unavailable or deleted.
Lightning Strikes 10/24/18 1:32:13 PM #67:	Neptune didn't have much of a B8 drive did she? --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911081828] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Neptune didn't have much of a B8 drive did she?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/24/18 1:32:29 PM #68:	Lightning Strikes posted... Neptune didn't have much of a B8 drive did she? She had a pretty big one, actually. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911081841] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>Neptune didn't have much of a B8 drive did she?</quote> She had a pretty big one, actually.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/24/18 5:54:04 PM #69:	Weird. B8 you surprise me sometimes. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911097529] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Weird. B8 you surprise me sometimes.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TsunamiXXVIII 10/24/18 6:55:51 PM #70:	ZenOfThunder posted... Yeah I got Metal Sonic a 5 seed just by screaming really loud I love this line. And yeah, Neptune was a huge rally target from B8; was really disappointed to see what a strong 9-seed she drew when she could've had...uh... ...damnit, looking at the eight 9-seeds, the only one I think she could actually beat is a fellow B8 creation, Monokuma. Actually, she might be able to beat Ramza because Ramza has always been complete garbo in these things, but I'd still take a Square lead, even a low-tier one like Ramza, to defeat a character from a cult game. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3755-heart-division-round-1-laharl-vs-neku-sakuraba https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5198-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-neku-vs-vaas-vs-catherine ...yeeeeeeeeahnevermind. Neptune would totally be able to beat Ramza, and also Simon Belmont. I have to remember that "more well-known" doesn't always mean "better bet". Just, I dunno, 98% of the time. Remind me again why Ramza keeps getting into these contests? He's never won anything. Lost to Hogger in that stupid fourway. Ramza/Delita lost to Siegfried/Nightmare in Rivalry Rumble, which was only the fourth time that a character from any fighting game franchise other than Street Fighter or Mortal Kombat won a match (two of them being in the craptastic Character Battle I, which had entirely too many fighting game characters--and no, Master Hand and Sandbag don't count). (Then again, all results seem to point to SoulCalibur being the third-strongest fighting game franchise. In addition to the Rivalry Rumble win, Nightmare actually advanced to Round 2 in 2008, beating out Crash Bandicoot for second place, and even Siegfried managed to only be in 3rd place rather than fourth in his Round 1 loss. Yoshimitsu, who I believe is technically a Tekken character but functionally is shared between both Tekken and SoulCalibur, then added a win in 2013.) --- "Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!" BKSheikah has the power. He is the one. <cite>TsunamiXXVIII posted [p:911100943] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>ZenOfThunder posted...</cite> <quote>Yeah I got Metal Sonic a 5 seed just by screaming really loud</quote> I love this line. And yeah, Neptune was a huge rally target from B8; was really disappointed to see what a strong 9-seed she drew when she could've had...uh... ...damnit, looking at the eight 9-seeds, the only one I think she could actually beat is a fellow B8 creation, Monokuma. Actually, she might be able to beat Ramza because Ramza has always been complete garbo in these things, but I'd still take a Square lead, even a low-tier one like Ramza, to defeat a character from a cult game. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3755-heart-division-round-1-laharl-vs-neku-sakuraba https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5198-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-neku-vs-vaas-vs-catherine ...yeeeeeeeeahnevermind. Neptune would totally be able to beat Ramza, and also Simon Belmont. I have to remember that "more well-known" doesn't always mean "better bet". Just, I dunno, 98% of the time. Remind me again why Ramza keeps getting into these contests? He's never won anything. Lost to Hogger in that stupid fourway. Ramza/Delita lost to Siegfried/Nightmare in Rivalry Rumble, which was only the fourth time that a character from any fighting game franchise other than Street Fighter or Mortal Kombat won a match (two of them being in the craptastic Character Battle I, which had entirely too many fighting game characters--and no, Master Hand and Sandbag don't count). (Then again, all results seem to point to SoulCalibur being the third-strongest fighting game franchise. In addition to the Rivalry Rumble win, Nightmare actually advanced to Round 2 in 2008, beating out Crash Bandicoot for second place, and even Siegfried managed to only be in 3rd place rather than fourth in his Round 1 loss. Yoshimitsu, who I believe is technically a Tekken character but functionally is shared between both Tekken and SoulCalibur, then added a win in 2013.)</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/25/18 3:41:32 PM #71:	Apologies for the late one. Day 6, Match 1 - Alucard vs. Princess Peach (3) Alucard: 56.81% - (14) Peach: 43.19% What happened?: In some ways this was Peach/Gordon come again. Peach is a reasonable midcarder who is kind of Nintendo's top of the bottom tier. Her exact strength has never been pinpointed though. Alucard is more or less a high midcarder but his exact strength is hard to pinpoint. A lot of people were hyping this one up. Honestly for me this was an open and shut Alucard victory from the off. Peach lost to Gordon, Alucard would easily clear that era of Gordon so it's no trouble. After what he did to Magus in 2010 I am stunned people doubted him - Peach by no means underperformed, doing a fair bit better than Magus. Overall this was a pretty hohum match. What could this mean?: They both looked pretty good here. Peach beating Magus's performance makes her look strong, and was another good Nintendo performance despite not living up to board hype. Alucard however took a relatively easy win and looks very strong, better than Big Boss. It makes sense - Castlevania's stock is pretty good right now despite, or even because of Konami not giving a damn about their licenses. The Netflix series is great and very popular, there's rereleases and it's in Smash Bros. now. So this was fine news for both contestants. Day 6, Match 2 - Yuna vs. Godot (6) Yuna: 72.56% - (11) Godot: 27.44% What happened?: We finally got Godot in!!! And he lost easily. He did escape the tripling which was nice. Not much to say on this, it was a fodder blowout of one of the best actual characters in this thing. It did show off how good the Ace Attorney early vote is, but we knew that already. What could this mean?: This was a pretty uninspiring performance by Yuna, only slightly better than she'd do on Edgeworth, but it's tough to read a lot into it. She didn't embarass herself either. Godot is bottom ten for sure, very likely bottom five. Given that he lost badly in a vote-in (he got doubled by Simon Belmont and barely beat Sol Badguy), he's not worth much, so to escape a tripling is the best he could ask for. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911152754] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Apologies for the late one. Day 6, Match 1 - Alucard vs. Princess Peach (3) Alucard: 56.81% - (14) Peach: 43.19% What happened?: In some ways this was Peach/Gordon come again. Peach is a reasonable midcarder who is kind of Nintendo's top of the bottom tier. Her exact strength has never been pinpointed though. Alucard is more or less a high midcarder but his exact strength is hard to pinpoint. A lot of people were hyping this one up. Honestly for me this was an open and shut Alucard victory from the off. Peach lost to Gordon, Alucard would easily clear that era of Gordon so it's no trouble. After what he did to Magus in 2010 I am stunned people doubted him - Peach by no means underperformed, doing a fair bit better than Magus. Overall this was a pretty hohum match. What could this mean?: They both looked pretty good here. Peach beating Magus's performance makes her look strong, and was another good Nintendo performance despite not living up to board hype. Alucard however took a relatively easy win and looks very strong, better than Big Boss. It makes sense - Castlevania's stock is pretty good right now despite, or even because of Konami not giving a damn about their licenses. The Netflix series is great and very popular, there's rereleases and it's in Smash Bros. now. So this was fine news for both contestants. Day 6, Match 2 - Yuna vs. Godot (6) Yuna: 72.56% - (11) Godot: 27.44% What happened?: We finally got Godot in!!! And he lost easily. He did escape the tripling which was nice. Not much to say on this, it was a fodder blowout of one of the best actual characters in this thing. It did show off how good the Ace Attorney early vote is, but we knew that already. What could this mean?: This was a pretty uninspiring performance by Yuna, only slightly better than she'd do on Edgeworth, but it's tough to read a lot into it. She didn't embarass herself either. Godot is bottom ten for sure, very likely bottom five. Given that he lost badly in a vote-in (he got doubled by Simon Belmont and barely beat Sol Badguy), he's not worth much, so to escape a tripling is the best he could ask for.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/25/18 4:05:52 PM #72:	Day 6, Match 3 - Kefka vs. L-Block (7) Kefka: 60.19% - (10) L-Block: 39.81% What happened?: Ahhhh this match. A true headscratcher going in, nobody knew what to make of this one. The two most unpredictable characters in contest history going up against each other. And given that the winner almost certainly goes to round 3, it is a really key decision. And then Kefka came out and won easily, looking very strong early on. Of course that's how this goes, a classic debated match turned one-sided. Oh Kefka. What could this mean?: Trying to make heads or tails of this match is a fool's errand. Is Kefka a true elite? Or is the joke just dead? Who knows. Kefka never makes any sense. Day 6, Match 4 - Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman (2) Kiryu: 39.13% - (15) Bomberman: 60.87% What happened?: Bet you never thought you'd see Bomberman 60/40 someone! Kiryu is a character that has been around for a while, but along with his series has had a recent surge in popularity. He got a high seed with a heavy board effort, but would have been here anyway, Yakuza's a fairly big deal now. Not big enough however, and Bomberman won an unspectacular match. What could this mean?: I'm pretty convinced now that Bomberman is the perfect fodder line character. He has the apathy factor Pac-Man does but is not as strong or significant. To put this into some perspective, Pac-Man got to be playable in Smash and Bomberman's an assist trophy. And Kiryu is fodder. He might build strength over time but for now he's quite weak. 2002 excluded, is he the weakest 2-seed ever? He has to be up there. At least he looked better than Kane. Also Majima might be the true weakest character in the bracket, look out for that. Finally, shout out to the casuals for not getting fooled on this one. They're having a good year for sure. This was a pretty uneventful day. Luckily the next one's a banger. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911154136] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 6, Match 3 - Kefka vs. L-Block (7) Kefka: 60.19% - (10) L-Block: 39.81% What happened?: Ahhhh this match. A true headscratcher going in, nobody knew what to make of this one. The two most unpredictable characters in contest history going up against each other. And given that the winner almost certainly goes to round 3, it is a really key decision. And then Kefka came out and won easily, looking very strong early on. Of course that's how this goes, a classic debated match turned one-sided. Oh Kefka. What could this mean?: Trying to make heads or tails of this match is a fool's errand. Is Kefka a true elite? Or is the joke just dead? Who knows. Kefka never makes any sense. Day 6, Match 4 - Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman (2) Kiryu: 39.13% - (15) Bomberman: 60.87% What happened?: Bet you never thought you'd see Bomberman 60/40 someone! Kiryu is a character that has been around for a while, but along with his series has had a recent surge in popularity. He got a high seed with a heavy board effort, but would have been here anyway, Yakuza's a fairly big deal now. Not big enough however, and Bomberman won an unspectacular match. What could this mean?: I'm pretty convinced now that Bomberman is the perfect fodder line character. He has the apathy factor Pac-Man does but is not as strong or significant. To put this into some perspective, Pac-Man got to be playable in Smash and Bomberman's an assist trophy. And Kiryu is fodder. He might build strength over time but for now he's quite weak. 2002 excluded, is he the weakest 2-seed ever? He has to be up there. At least he looked better than Kane. Also Majima might be the true weakest character in the bracket, look out for that. Finally, shout out to the casuals for not getting fooled on this one. They're having a good year for sure. This was a pretty uneventful day. Luckily the next one's a banger.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/25/18 4:15:14 PM #73:	Also what I have for the bottom five so far, in rough order: Neptune Chloe Price Hat Kid Cayde-6 Goro Majima Godot barely escapes! At least I hope he would squeak by Neptune, maybe not. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911154692] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Also what I have for the bottom five so far, in rough order: Neptune Chloe Price Hat Kid Cayde-6 Goro Majima Godot barely escapes! At least I hope he would squeak by Neptune, maybe not.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZeldaTPLink 10/25/18 4:32:33 PM #74:	Casuals don't exist anymore. <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:911155770] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Casuals don't exist anymore.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AxemRedRanger 10/25/18 4:57:17 PM #75:	I wouldn't say Alucard necessarily looked better than Big Boss. Peach lost to Meta Knight when all he had out of Smash was a trailer; if he can do it, why not Mr. Not Too Big? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] [NO BKSheikah NO PEACE] <cite>AxemRedRanger posted [p:911157227] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>I wouldn't say Alucard necessarily looked better than Big Boss. Peach lost to Meta Knight when all he had out of Smash was a trailer; if he can do it, why not Mr. Not Too Big?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/25/18 5:43:28 PM #76:	ZeldaTPLink posted... Casuals don't exist anymore. Eh kinda, but B8 is only a few hundred brackets, we're still a fraction of the total. AxemRedRanger posted... I wouldn't say Alucard necessarily looked better than Big Boss. Peach lost to Meta Knight when all he had out of Smash was a trailer; if he can do it, why not Mr. Not Too Big? Fair point, but Peach does behave differently against Nintendo. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911159880] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>ZeldaTPLink posted...</cite> <quote>Casuals don't exist anymore.</quote> Eh kinda, but B8 is only a few hundred brackets, we're still a fraction of the total. <cite>AxemRedRanger posted...</cite> <quote>I wouldn't say Alucard necessarily looked better than Big Boss. Peach lost to Meta Knight when all he had out of Smash was a trailer; if he can do it, why not Mr. Not Too Big?</quote> Fair point, but Peach does behave differently against Nintendo.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MetalmindStats 10/25/18 11:03:04 PM #77:	UltimaterializerX posted... ZenOfThunder posted... i just wanted to let you know i'm still reading and archiving, this is a really interesting read. i'm sure there are more lurkers enjoying this as well. ZeldaTPLink posted... This thread is great, keep doing it! What they said! <cite>MetalmindStats posted [p:911178045] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>UltimaterializerX posted...</cite> <quote><cite>ZenOfThunder posted...</cite> <quote>i just wanted to let you know i'm still reading and archiving, this is a really interesting read. i'm sure there are more lurkers enjoying this as well.</quote> <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted...</cite> <quote>This thread is great, keep doing it!</quote> What they said!</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/25/18 11:22:11 PM #78:	I think most bracketmakers this year are people who have a familiarity with contest history based on the prediction percentages thus far. Charizard had 2/3 of the brackets despite being a 12 seed. Bomberman was the overall favorite despite being a 15 seed. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911179044] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>I think most bracketmakers this year are people who have a familiarity with contest history based on the prediction percentages thus far. Charizard had 2/3 of the brackets despite being a 12 seed. Bomberman was the overall favorite despite being a 15 seed.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/26/18 12:24:11 PM #79:	A lot to unpack with this day. Day 7, Match 1 - 2B vs. Cayde-6 (1) 2B: 77.8% - (16) Cayde-6: 22.2% What happened?: 2B smash fodder. Cayde-6 is a lot of people's pick for the weakest character in the contest and it's easy to see why (though Majima hasn't been yet). 2B started this match extremely high, over 85% in the board vote, then well over 80% for much of the match, getting the highest margins of the entire contest for much of its duration. The beatdown calmed down a lot after the first few hours though and 2B dropped to around 78% - nearly a 4% drop which is sizeable, even bigger than Pikachu over Scorpion. This was nearly the biggest victory of the contest, but Ganondorf vs. Neku still has it, which is kind of a disappointment - however strong 2B really is, it would be great to say "2B won with the biggest margin of any character in CBX" . What could this mean?: Unsurprisingly, Cayde-6 is really, really weak. I would caution against calling him Tanner though. Tanner was a special confluence of nobody knowing or caring about him or his games, and looking like some nobody to boot. Cayde-6 is from games people have played even if they are very weak and at least has a good design. We'll never see a "natural" (i.e. not somebody B8 rallied in to deliberately top Tanner) Tanner again, the closest was probably Nathan Hale and he would double Tanner! As for 2B, without knowing exactly how weak Cayde-6 is, it's hard to get a good read but she didn't fall on her face. You don't get nearly 80% from random apathy voting, so she is at least recognisable enough to get those votes. I know 2B's seed was inflated by the NRT win but given how much of Nier Automata's marketing was centred around her, it's hard to see her lower than a 2 or a 3. My expectation now is a decent midcarder, but her true strength is hidden by facing an unknown weakling. Lastly, with the trends, it's hard to say if 2B is frontloaded, Cayde-6 does better at night, or that kind of beatdown is just hard to keep up, but it's probably a bit of both. I think 2B looks good to beat Ness, but I can't say it with confidence. Day 7, Match 2 - Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness (8) Shadow: 46.74% - (9) Ness: 53.36% What happened?: This was a fairly debated match, but it didn't really need to be - Ness has looked at worst very slightly above Shadow and it would only take a small shift to Nintendo to make this one his. Shadow kept it close however, not letting Ness pull away too much after his early lead, and resulting in a match that got closer and closer as the match went on. This just further highlights the new frontloaded nature of Nintendo, though in this case it was exacerbated by Europe where Sonic is good and Earthbound is weaker. To be fair, Ness did seem to do better in Europe than he usually does, likely helped by his game actually being out there now (finally). What could this mean?: Not too much. Ness looked more or less to par here. Shadow has obviously fallen a lot from his 45% on Mario days but hey, at least he ain't falling further. Despite being a fairly close match this match didn't give us much. Ness would have needed to beat Shadow very easily to look like a clear favourite against 2B, but it's hard to say the odds are stacked against him either. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911204590] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>A lot to unpack with this day. Day 7, Match 1 - 2B vs. Cayde-6 (1) 2B: 77.8% - (16) Cayde-6: 22.2% What happened?: 2B smash fodder. Cayde-6 is a lot of people's pick for the weakest character in the contest and it's easy to see why (though Majima hasn't been yet). 2B started this match extremely high, over 85% in the board vote, then well over 80% for much of the match, getting the highest margins of the entire contest for much of its duration. The beatdown calmed down a lot after the first few hours though and 2B dropped to around 78% - nearly a 4% drop which is sizeable, even bigger than Pikachu over Scorpion. This was nearly the biggest victory of the contest, but Ganondorf vs. Neku still has it, which is kind of a disappointment - however strong 2B really is, it would be great to say "2B won with the biggest margin of any character in CBX" . What could this mean?: Unsurprisingly, Cayde-6 is really, really weak. I would caution against calling him Tanner though. Tanner was a special confluence of nobody knowing or caring about him or his games, and looking like some nobody to boot. Cayde-6 is from games people have played even if they are very weak and at least has a good design. We'll never see a "natural" (i.e. not somebody B8 rallied in to deliberately top Tanner) Tanner again, the closest was probably Nathan Hale and he would double Tanner! As for 2B, without knowing exactly how weak Cayde-6 is, it's hard to get a good read but she didn't fall on her face. You don't get nearly 80% from random apathy voting, so she is at least recognisable enough to get those votes. I know 2B's seed was inflated by the NRT win but given how much of Nier Automata's marketing was centred around her, it's hard to see her lower than a 2 or a 3. My expectation now is a decent midcarder, but her true strength is hidden by facing an unknown weakling. Lastly, with the trends, it's hard to say if 2B is frontloaded, Cayde-6 does better at night, or that kind of beatdown is just hard to keep up, but it's probably a bit of both. I think 2B looks good to beat Ness, but I can't say it with confidence. Day 7, Match 2 - Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Ness (8) Shadow: 46.74% - (9) Ness: 53.36% What happened?: This was a fairly debated match, but it didn't really need to be - Ness has looked at worst very slightly above Shadow and it would only take a small shift to Nintendo to make this one his. Shadow kept it close however, not letting Ness pull away too much after his early lead, and resulting in a match that got closer and closer as the match went on. This just further highlights the new frontloaded nature of Nintendo, though in this case it was exacerbated by Europe where Sonic is good and Earthbound is weaker. To be fair, Ness did seem to do better in Europe than he usually does, likely helped by his game actually being out there now (finally). What could this mean?: Not too much. Ness looked more or less to par here. Shadow has obviously fallen a lot from his 45% on Mario days but hey, at least he ain't falling further. Despite being a fairly close match this match didn't give us much. Ness would have needed to beat Shadow very easily to look like a clear favourite against 2B, but it's hard to say the odds are stacked against him either.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/26/18 12:52:49 PM #80:	Day 7, Match 3 - Terra Branford vs. Charizard (5) Terra: 47.2% - (12) Charizard: 52.8% What happened?: Good goddamn question. This match seemed open and shut. Nintendo has been beasting, Final Fantasy has been not, Charizard has looked great twice in earlier contests, Pikachu looked great, Red looked great. Then this match starts.. And it's neck and neck during the board vote? What? Terra then spent a long time over 47%, looking like she might take the whole thing during the power hour. Then things started to go Charizard's way and he began winning updates consistently, and Terra never really got it back. It is very interesting that Terra was best during the Power Hour here, and the match was relatively stable otherwise. Charizard didn't have the 3-5% losses that other Pokemon characters have shown, instead only bleeding less than 1% from his peak. Lastly it's really significant that the match was effectively tied between anonymous voters with the registered boost helping Charaizard keep clear. It didn't change the result, but I wonder if it hadn't happen, would there have been rallies to push Terra over? Who knows. What could this mean?: A lot of people are calling Charizard and Pokemon/Nintendo/whatever a fraud, I dunno. Both Nintendo as a whole and Pokemon more specifically have looked consistently great, including in this match. Really I think this is just Terra. She didn't act like most Square characters have, though it's likely no coincidence that the closest comparison is Kefka. I think a lot of this is on her strength. FFVI has been growing over the last several years, and she likely earned that 5 seed. It would be interesting to see Terra put up against some typical midcarders, she could probably do a lot of damage. As for Charizard, well I suddenly feel glad I have Bowser, but a lot of that is to do with the next match. Day 7, Match 4 - Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman (4) Bowser: 77.39% - (13) Gordon: 22.61% What happened?: If it wasn't for the other match's insanity, this would have been the surprise of the contest. Maybe it still is! WTF Bowser? WTF Gordon? For years this potential matchup has looked like a straightforward 60-40 affair. Bowser's great, Gordon is good. The "Gordon Freeman Never Wins" days are long gone. Well, not anymore. Bowser came out of the gate with 80%, and although it did subside after the power hour he still dominated this match. For the gap between these two to widen by nearly 20% between contest He beat Gordon Freeman nearly as badly as Ganondorf beat Neku! That's really all you need to say to summarise this match. What could this mean?: One of my favourite jokes to come out of this contest is that Gordon saw that Cecil took his gimmick and got pissed, so did his best to get it back. A 20% discrepancy doesn't just appear, so I think that this is due to two factors. First, with Nintendo in general being great and Odyssey being what it was, I think Bowser has boosted a lot. Even now I don't think Gordon would lose to Neku. Second, Valve has completely abandoned Half-Life (and all games not called Dota2) and Gordon is feeling a direct consequence. Even with a Bowser boost this may be the biggest drop in contest history. we got a preview of this in 2015 when Half-Life 2 looked notably weaker than during Game of the Decade, but this is a whole other level. Also Cecil vs. Gordon bonus match please Allen! --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911206214] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 7, Match 3 - Terra Branford vs. Charizard (5) Terra: 47.2% - (12) Charizard: 52.8% What happened?: Good goddamn question. This match seemed open and shut. Nintendo has been beasting, Final Fantasy has been not, Charizard has looked great twice in earlier contests, Pikachu looked great, Red looked great. Then this match starts.. And it's neck and neck during the board vote? What? Terra then spent a long time over 47%, looking like she might take the whole thing during the power hour. Then things started to go Charizard's way and he began winning updates consistently, and Terra never really got it back. It is very interesting that Terra was best during the Power Hour here, and the match was relatively stable otherwise. Charizard didn't have the 3-5% losses that other Pokemon characters have shown, instead only bleeding less than 1% from his peak. Lastly it's really significant that the match was effectively tied between anonymous voters with the registered boost helping Charaizard keep clear. It didn't change the result, but I wonder if it hadn't happen, would there have been rallies to push Terra over? Who knows. What could this mean?: A lot of people are calling Charizard and Pokemon/Nintendo/whatever a fraud, I dunno. Both Nintendo as a whole and Pokemon more specifically have looked consistently great, including in this match. Really I think this is just Terra. She didn't act like most Square characters have, though it's likely no coincidence that the closest comparison is Kefka. I think a lot of this is on her strength. FFVI has been growing over the last several years, and she likely earned that 5 seed. It would be interesting to see Terra put up against some typical midcarders, she could probably do a lot of damage. As for Charizard, well I suddenly feel glad I have Bowser, but a lot of that is to do with the next match. Day 7, Match 4 - Bowser vs. Gordon Freeman (4) Bowser: 77.39% - (13) Gordon: 22.61% What happened?: If it wasn't for the other match's insanity, this would have been the surprise of the contest. Maybe it still is! WTF Bowser? WTF Gordon? For years this potential matchup has looked like a straightforward 60-40 affair. Bowser's great, Gordon is good. The "Gordon Freeman Never Wins" days are long gone. Well, not anymore. Bowser came out of the gate with 80%, and although it did subside after the power hour he still dominated this match. For the gap between these two to widen by nearly 20% between contest He beat Gordon Freeman nearly as badly as Ganondorf beat Neku! That's really all you need to say to summarise this match. What could this mean?: One of my favourite jokes to come out of this contest is that Gordon saw that Cecil took his gimmick and got pissed, so did his best to get it back. A 20% discrepancy doesn't just appear, so I think that this is due to two factors. First, with Nintendo in general being great and Odyssey being what it was, I think Bowser has boosted a lot. Even now I don't think Gordon would lose to Neku. Second, Valve has completely abandoned Half-Life (and all games not called Dota2) and Gordon is feeling a direct consequence. Even with a Bowser boost this may be the biggest drop in contest history. we got a preview of this in 2015 when Half-Life 2 looked notably weaker than during Game of the Decade, but this is a whole other level. Also Cecil vs. Gordon bonus match please Allen!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LinkMarioSamus 10/26/18 1:21:00 PM #81:	Final Fantasy VI/VII and Chrono Trigger might be a whole other animal compared to the rest of Square. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:911207730] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Final Fantasy VI/VII and Chrono Trigger might be a whole other animal compared to the rest of Square.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/27/18 7:27:23 PM #82:	Hmm we seem to be doing one boring day one exciting day on and off... Day 8, Match 1 - Phoenix Wright vs. Chris Redfield (3) Phoenix: 56.93% - (14) Chris: 43.07% What happened?: For a long time Phoenix and Chris Redfield have been in a similar ballpark. But as Phoenix's series and exposure have risen, so have his strength. He also benefits a lot from the more focused GameFAQs audience these days. He's legit good now. Chris somehow missed CBIX entirely despite its massive roster, and probably weakened a fair bit before climbing back up. Phoenix was a clear favourite but the question was by how much. Phoenix dominated the board vote, but then dropped harshly, going from near a doubling to a fairly standard 57/43 win. This gave him his first 1v1 victory as it happens, and it's about time too. What could this mean?: As expected Phoenix is slightly stronger and Chris is slightly weaker I think. Phoenix has a dominant early vote then falls off, which is exacerbated by the new start time. I believe percentage-wise he had the biggest within-match drop of the contest (counting from after the board vote). I think Phoenix looked solid here but not good enough to beat Ike, more on that in the next match. Day 8, Match 2 - Ike vs. Joel (6) Ike: 62.31% - (11) Joel: 37.69% What happened?: This was similar to the last one in that Ike was the large favourite but the question was how much he would win by. It turns out a lot. Ike won easily and looked tremendous during the Power Hour. He also didn't drop quite as hard as Phoenix which is significant. What could this mean?: Ike looks like a good favourite over Phoenix now. Joel isn't going to be weak, The Last of Us is strong on here, even though Joel is not the draw. The floor for Joel is likely Booker and Phoenix wouldn't do these numbers on him. It also has to be emphasised that Fire Emblem has gotten a lot more popular since 2013, and Ike is THE guy among the fanbase, he is absolutely beloved. This is probably a stronger Ike and he should beat Phoenix I think. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911285515] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Hmm we seem to be doing one boring day one exciting day on and off... Day 8, Match 1 - Phoenix Wright vs. Chris Redfield (3) Phoenix: 56.93% - (14) Chris: 43.07% What happened?: For a long time Phoenix and Chris Redfield have been in a similar ballpark. But as Phoenix's series and exposure have risen, so have his strength. He also benefits a lot from the more focused GameFAQs audience these days. He's legit good now. Chris somehow missed CBIX entirely despite its massive roster, and probably weakened a fair bit before climbing back up. Phoenix was a clear favourite but the question was by how much. Phoenix dominated the board vote, but then dropped harshly, going from near a doubling to a fairly standard 57/43 win. This gave him his first 1v1 victory as it happens, and it's about time too. What could this mean?: As expected Phoenix is slightly stronger and Chris is slightly weaker I think. Phoenix has a dominant early vote then falls off, which is exacerbated by the new start time. I believe percentage-wise he had the biggest within-match drop of the contest (counting from after the board vote). I think Phoenix looked solid here but not good enough to beat Ike, more on that in the next match. Day 8, Match 2 - Ike vs. Joel (6) Ike: 62.31% - (11) Joel: 37.69% What happened?: This was similar to the last one in that Ike was the large favourite but the question was how much he would win by. It turns out a lot. Ike won easily and looked tremendous during the Power Hour. He also didn't drop quite as hard as Phoenix which is significant. What could this mean?: Ike looks like a good favourite over Phoenix now. Joel isn't going to be weak, The Last of Us is strong on here, even though Joel is not the draw. The floor for Joel is likely Booker and Phoenix wouldn't do these numbers on him. It also has to be emphasised that Fire Emblem has gotten a lot more popular since 2013, and Ike is THE guy among the fanbase, he is absolutely beloved. This is probably a stronger Ike and he should beat Phoenix I think.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/27/18 7:52:43 PM #83:	Day 8, Match 3 - Estelle Bright vs. Isaac (7) Estelle: 35.37% - (10) Isaac: 64.63% What happened?: A just-happy-to-be-here character loses badly to a midcarder, not much too it. When Isaac isn't stuck with other Nintendo characters he looks pretty good. He hasn't had a game in ages, but is a fan favourite, in a lot of demand for Smash, and keeps getting in these things for a reason. Estelle got a big Board 8 push and got a good seed. Her games seem popular and have a dedicated fanbase so she probably isn't super weak, but she is still bottom 10 for sure. So this ended up being a straightforward easy win for Isaac. What could this mean?: Nothing. Even the trends were boring. And the winner gets pasted by Kirby. Isaac is one of my favourite characters though and I'm just happy to see him win again. Day 8, Match 4 - Kirby vs. Guile (2) Kirby: 74.54% - (15) Guile: 25.46% What happened?: Third dominant Nintendo performance of the day. Classic Board 8 push gets tripled as well. We've seen this happen before, same old same old. What could this mean?: Strong, strong performance for Kirby. Guile can't be that weak, he's a major Street Fighter II character. Overall though Nintendo dominating is getting hard to talk about, I'm looking forward to it facing itself for some interesting matches. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911286863] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 8, Match 3 - Estelle Bright vs. Isaac (7) Estelle: 35.37% - (10) Isaac: 64.63% What happened?: A just-happy-to-be-here character loses badly to a midcarder, not much too it. When Isaac isn't stuck with other Nintendo characters he looks pretty good. He hasn't had a game in ages, but is a fan favourite, in a lot of demand for Smash, and keeps getting in these things for a reason. Estelle got a big Board 8 push and got a good seed. Her games seem popular and have a dedicated fanbase so she probably isn't super weak, but she is still bottom 10 for sure. So this ended up being a straightforward easy win for Isaac. What could this mean?: Nothing. Even the trends were boring. And the winner gets pasted by Kirby. Isaac is one of my favourite characters though and I'm just happy to see him win again. Day 8, Match 4 - Kirby vs. Guile (2) Kirby: 74.54% - (15) Guile: 25.46% What happened?: Third dominant Nintendo performance of the day. Classic Board 8 push gets tripled as well. We've seen this happen before, same old same old. What could this mean?: Strong, strong performance for Kirby. Guile can't be that weak, he's a major Street Fighter II character. Overall though Nintendo dominating is getting hard to talk about, I'm looking forward to it facing itself for some interesting matches.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/28/18 3:25:22 PM #84:	Day 9, Match 1 - Squall Leonheart vs. Hat Kid (1) Squall: 75.88% - (16) Hat Kid: 24.22% What happened?: A disappointing Final Fantasy performance? In this contest? Well I never. Squall looked really, really bad at the start of this match, struggling to get over 70% in the first hour. He quickly improved from there, rapidly improving to a tripling where it was more or less steady, but it was still a fairly poor show. Hat Kid looked very frontloaded here, for a while escaping a doubling, and Squall showed the same trends expected of a "modern" FF character. Squall also did better with the registered user vote which is fairly critical for his later matches. What could this mean?: I hope this is the match that hammers home the poor show that FF has given throughout this contest. Before the contest started there was talk of Squall being the new #10 character after Vincent declined. He did worse on Hat Kid than Bowser did on Gordon so that clearly isn't the case (and if it is, lol Gordon). Hat Kid is largely expected to be a bottom five character, we won't know for sure for a little while, but looking at the relative popularity of A Hat in Time I have a very hard time imagining her doing better than certain other characters she would need to beat for Squall to be anywhere near his old strength. Day 9, Match 2 - Garrus Vakarian vs. Ramza Beoulve (8) Garrus: 50.63% - (9) Ramza: 49.37% What happened?: The first true nailbiter of the contest. This was generally expected to be Garrus's match, he would win relatively comfortable based on 2013 and Ramza has never been especially strong. Then it started and was neck and neck, with multiple lead changes in the first two hours. This continued throughout the night with both contestants unable to get over a 100 vote lead. Ramza eventually pushed away a little bit, getting over 200 votes which he held for a couple of hours. Things quickly went back to back and forth though, until Garrus finally gained a consistent lead with the day vote. Ramza started to cut again in the last hour but by then it was too late. In the end this match had the smallest peak lead of any character battle match at just 419 votes, and will definitely go down as one of the most exciting ones this contest. What could this mean?: Poor Ramza. His record is as bad as Cecil's, but he has had fewer winnable matches. He at least kept this match much, much closer than most people here expected. I think a lot of this has to do with the fortunes of Mass Effect. That series has died an absolute death over the last several years, since Andromeda in particular, and I think all Mass Effect characters, even the ones people like, are going to suffer. There is still a poor taste in people's mouths from Andromeda without a doubt. Brace yourselves for an uninspiring Shepard performance. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911330435] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 9, Match 1 - Squall Leonheart vs. Hat Kid (1) Squall: 75.88% - (16) Hat Kid: 24.22% What happened?: A disappointing Final Fantasy performance? In this contest? Well I never. Squall looked really, really bad at the start of this match, struggling to get over 70% in the first hour. He quickly improved from there, rapidly improving to a tripling where it was more or less steady, but it was still a fairly poor show. Hat Kid looked very frontloaded here, for a while escaping a doubling, and Squall showed the same trends expected of a "modern" FF character. Squall also did better with the registered user vote which is fairly critical for his later matches. What could this mean?: I hope this is the match that hammers home the poor show that FF has given throughout this contest. Before the contest started there was talk of Squall being the new #10 character after Vincent declined. He did worse on Hat Kid than Bowser did on Gordon so that clearly isn't the case (and if it is, lol Gordon). Hat Kid is largely expected to be a bottom five character, we won't know for sure for a little while, but looking at the relative popularity of A Hat in Time I have a very hard time imagining her doing better than certain other characters she would need to beat for Squall to be anywhere near his old strength. Day 9, Match 2 - Garrus Vakarian vs. Ramza Beoulve (8) Garrus: 50.63% - (9) Ramza: 49.37% What happened?: The first true nailbiter of the contest. This was generally expected to be Garrus's match, he would win relatively comfortable based on 2013 and Ramza has never been especially strong. Then it started and was neck and neck, with multiple lead changes in the first two hours. This continued throughout the night with both contestants unable to get over a 100 vote lead. Ramza eventually pushed away a little bit, getting over 200 votes which he held for a couple of hours. Things quickly went back to back and forth though, until Garrus finally gained a consistent lead with the day vote. Ramza started to cut again in the last hour but by then it was too late. In the end this match had the smallest peak lead of any character battle match at just 419 votes, and will definitely go down as one of the most exciting ones this contest. What could this mean?: Poor Ramza. His record is as bad as Cecil's, but he has had fewer winnable matches. He at least kept this match much, much closer than most people here expected. I think a lot of this has to do with the fortunes of Mass Effect. That series has died an absolute death over the last several years, since Andromeda in particular, and I think all Mass Effect characters, even the ones people like, are going to suffer. There is still a poor taste in people's mouths from Andromeda without a doubt. Brace yourselves for an uninspiring Shepard performance.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/28/18 3:26:05 PM #85:	Lightning Strikes posted... I hope this is the match that hammers home the poor show that FF has given throughout this contest. nope --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911330480] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote> I hope this is the match that hammers home the poor show that FF has given throughout this contest.</quote> nope</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/28/18 3:45:20 PM #86:	Day 5, Match 3 - Metal Sonic vs. The Boss (5) Metal Sonic: 43.48% - (12) The Boss: 56.52% What happened?: Zen, bless you for getting Metal Sonic in and getting him a 5 seed. I even picked him to win this match despite him not being the board or the overall favourite, because I looked at the strength of the other Noble Nine Doppelganger's we've seen (more on that in the next section). It wasn't to be though, and he lost in a very standard 57/43 match. He had a good Board vote, which might be a result of being a "board 8 special" but otherwise this match was steady. What could this mean?: The Boss has always been alright, but this puts Metal Sonic at a low midcarder at best and around Shadow's strength, maybe a little stronger. What is interesting is that when you look at Noble Nine "Doppelgangers" - Luigi, Mega Man X, Big Boss, arguably Zack, to this point they have always looked pretty good. Really I think a lot of this is due to a general resistance a lot of people, not even just on GameFAQs, have to Sonic characters who aren't Sonic, Knuckles, or Tails, even older ones like Metal Sonic. It does make me wonder how Dark Samus and Linkle would do, we should get them in some time. Day 9, Match 4 - Zelda vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze (4) Zelda: 75.33% - (13) Ezio: 24.67% What happened?: Yo did you know that Nintendo is looking great this contest? Because it is. Zelda amazed with a tripling, and in the early hours was over 77%. She calmed down as Nintendo characters do, but only by about 2%, She still kept it over a tripling with ease. What could this mean?: Squall gon' get wrecked (sorry Leon). We have actually seen Zelda vs. Ezio before, in 2010, in which Zelda got 62.11% on Ezio. An increase of over 13% is tremendous. Now we would expect Ezio to be a bit weaker - he hasn't had a game in years. However, Assassin's Creed is on a relative upswing and he looked good in 2013 so I'm not expecting him to suddenly be fodder or something. Zelda is riding a wave of Nintendo strength and particularly the strength of Breath of the Wild, and her quality as a character in it. This was a great performance from Zelda, and with regards to her upcoming match with Squall we have to ask ourselves. Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio? No. Squall doing better with users, which is Zelda series stomping ground, is also a bad sign for him. Zelda should be a clear favourite by this point. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911331540] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 5, Match 3 - Metal Sonic vs. The Boss (5) Metal Sonic: 43.48% - (12) The Boss: 56.52% What happened?: Zen, bless you for getting Metal Sonic in and getting him a 5 seed. I even picked him to win this match despite him not being the board or the overall favourite, because I looked at the strength of the other Noble Nine Doppelganger's we've seen (more on that in the next section). It wasn't to be though, and he lost in a very standard 57/43 match. He had a good Board vote, which might be a result of being a "board 8 special" but otherwise this match was steady. What could this mean?: The Boss has always been alright, but this puts Metal Sonic at a low midcarder at best and around Shadow's strength, maybe a little stronger. What is interesting is that when you look at Noble Nine "Doppelgangers" - Luigi, Mega Man X, Big Boss, arguably Zack, to this point they have always looked pretty good. Really I think a lot of this is due to a general resistance a lot of people, not even just on GameFAQs, have to Sonic characters who aren't Sonic, Knuckles, or Tails, even older ones like Metal Sonic. It does make me wonder how Dark Samus and Linkle would do, we should get them in some time. Day 9, Match 4 - Zelda vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze (4) Zelda: 75.33% - (13) Ezio: 24.67% What happened?: Yo did you know that Nintendo is looking great this contest? Because it is. Zelda amazed with a tripling, and in the early hours was over 77%. She calmed down as Nintendo characters do, but only by about 2%, She still kept it over a tripling with ease. What could this mean?: Squall gon' get wrecked (sorry Leon). We have actually seen Zelda vs. Ezio before, in 2010, in which Zelda got 62.11% on Ezio. An increase of over 13% is tremendous. Now we would expect Ezio to be a bit weaker - he hasn't had a game in years. However, Assassin's Creed is on a relative upswing and he looked good in 2013 so I'm not expecting him to suddenly be fodder or something. Zelda is riding a wave of Nintendo strength and particularly the strength of Breath of the Wild, and her quality as a character in it. This was a great performance from Zelda, and with regards to her upcoming match with Squall we have to ask ourselves. Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio? No. Squall doing better with users, which is Zelda series stomping ground, is also a bad sign for him. Zelda should be a clear favourite by this point.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/28/18 3:46:38 PM #87:	No need to apologize to me. I haven't given up on that match by a long shot. Lightning Strikes posted... Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio? Irrelevant. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911331599] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>No need to apologize to me. I haven't given up on that match by a long shot. <cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio?</quote> Irrelevant.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/28/18 3:54:04 PM #88:	LeonhartFour posted... No need to apologize to me. I haven't given up on that match by a long shot. Lightning Strikes posted... Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio? Irrelevant. I feel if you want to call those matches irrelevant all matches are irrelevant. Also I added a sentence I forgot. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911332039] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>LeonhartFour posted...</cite> <quote>No need to apologize to me. I haven't given up on that match by a long shot. <cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>Would Hat Kid go 50/50 with Ezio?</quote> Irrelevant.</quote> I feel if you want to call those matches irrelevant all matches are irrelevant. Also I added a sentence I forgot.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/28/18 3:55:03 PM #89:	then I hope you have Zelda and Bowser winning the contest because those are better numbers than Link would have put up in years past --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911332105] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>then I hope you have Zelda and Bowser winning the contest because those are better numbers than Link would have put up in years past</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
garetha200 10/28/18 3:58:50 PM #90:	Assassin's Creed isn't on an upswing, AC2 got annihilated by FF6 in the games contest 3 years ago and looked extremely weak. As seen by Bowser / Gordon, relevant Nintendo characters can easily blow the doors off has-been western characters. Zelda is the favourite, but you definitely can't call it a crushing already. <cite>garetha200 posted [p:911332297] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Assassin's Creed isn't on an upswing, AC2 got annihilated by FF6 in the games contest 3 years ago and looked extremely weak. As seen by Bowser / Gordon, relevant Nintendo characters can easily blow the doors off has-been western characters. Zelda is the favourite, but you definitely can't call it a crushing already.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/28/18 4:04:24 PM #91:	garetha200 posted... Assassin's Creed isn't on an upswing, AC2 got annihilated by FF6 in the games contest 3 years ago and looked extremely weak. As seen by Bowser / Gordon, relevant Nintendo characters can easily blow the doors off has-been western characters. Zelda is the favourite, but you definitely can't call it a crushing already. Also directly comparing Nintendo fodder beatdowns to Square ones really won't get you anywhere, Nintendo characters are way better at putting up big numbers. Just to be clear I don't expect a crushing I was just being dramatic. However I was referring to post-Origins. In 2015 the most recent AC game was Unity, the series was at its nadir. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911332575] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>garetha200 posted...</cite> <quote>Assassin's Creed isn't on an upswing, AC2 got annihilated by FF6 in the games contest 3 years ago and looked extremely weak. As seen by Bowser / Gordon, relevant Nintendo characters can easily blow the doors off has-been western characters. Zelda is the favourite, but you definitely can't call it a crushing already. Also directly comparing Nintendo fodder beatdowns to Square ones really won't get you anywhere, Nintendo characters are way better at putting up big numbers.</quote> Just to be clear I don't expect a crushing I was just being dramatic. However I was referring to post-Origins. In 2015 the most recent AC game was Unity, the series was at its nadir.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LusterSoldier 10/29/18 7:13:18 AM #92:	Lightning Strikes posted... Squall also did better with the registered user vote which is fairly critical for his later matches. Incorrect. Squall had 75.69% among registered users, and 76.24% with the anonymous users. It wasn't a huge difference, and facing Hat Kid doesn't mean much as most registered users probably don't recognize Hat Kid and defaulted to Squall for their vote. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ \| ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! <cite>LusterSoldier posted [p:911374044] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>Lightning Strikes posted...</cite> <quote>Squall also did better with the registered user vote which is fairly critical for his later matches.</quote> Incorrect. Squall had 75.69% among registered users, and 76.24% with the anonymous users. It wasn't a huge difference, and facing Hat Kid doesn't mean much as most registered users probably don't recognize Hat Kid and defaulted to Squall for their vote.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/29/18 1:32:46 PM #93:	Thanks Luster, I just misread it. It being in the same ballpark does make the point still stand though. Day 9, Match 1 - Aloy vs. D.Va (3) Aloy: 47.06% - (14) D.Va: 52.94% What happened?: D.Va was a favourite to get a huge rally, and that didn't happen quite how people thought it would. There hasn't been a huge vote total increase, so any D.Va rally must have been pretty muted. What she did have though was a huge opening, at over 60% for the first several updates. Aloy then consistently brought things relatively closer, and eventually even managed to cut around 300 votes from D.Va's peak lead at one point before D.Va started to very slowly pull away. Aloy has night character written all over here, and D.Va diong well in the day makes sense as well. What could this mean?: It's not over yet, but RallyFAQs doesn't seem to be showing up. Aloy is probaby very weak despite Horizon being reasonable on here (it beat Nier Automata a couple of times, although Persona 5 probably helped it in those polls). However Aloy herself is pretty boring and her picture here was a pretty bland face shot, which is a shame because her overall character design is good. It makes sense that she would get a high seed as the representative of a popular game, but compared to a fan favourite like D.Va (with a much more striking picture as well) it's not an enormous surprise that she lost even without a rally. D.Va probably has no shot against Fox based on this performance, but maybe that rally will show up after all. Day 9, Match 2 - Jill Valentine vs. Fox McCloud (6) Jill: 45.9% - (11) Fox: 54.1% What happened?: This is a bit like Crash/Cecil in that it was somewhat debated but then ceased to be once the contest started. In the end this was a pretty standard result, Jill didn't look terrible, and stalled Fox at multiple points, and in the end the result was only slightly pushed up from what is expected from 2010. What could this mean?: Nintendo is still looking good, Resident Evil is still looking good, not much more to say. I feel pretty bad for Jill since she's still showing signs of strength here, but Fox is looking like a fairly safe bet to make it to the division finals. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911390880] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Thanks Luster, I just misread it. It being in the same ballpark does make the point still stand though. Day 9, Match 1 - Aloy vs. D.Va (3) Aloy: 47.06% - (14) D.Va: 52.94% What happened?: D.Va was a favourite to get a huge rally, and that didn't happen quite how people thought it would. There hasn't been a huge vote total increase, so any D.Va rally must have been pretty muted. What she did have though was a huge opening, at over 60% for the first several updates. Aloy then consistently brought things relatively closer, and eventually even managed to cut around 300 votes from D.Va's peak lead at one point before D.Va started to very slowly pull away. Aloy has night character written all over here, and D.Va diong well in the day makes sense as well. What could this mean?: It's not over yet, but RallyFAQs doesn't seem to be showing up. Aloy is probaby very weak despite Horizon being reasonable on here (it beat Nier Automata a couple of times, although Persona 5 probably helped it in those polls). However Aloy herself is pretty boring and her picture here was a pretty bland face shot, which is a shame because her overall character design is good. It makes sense that she would get a high seed as the representative of a popular game, but compared to a fan favourite like D.Va (with a much more striking picture as well) it's not an enormous surprise that she lost even without a rally. D.Va probably has no shot against Fox based on this performance, but maybe that rally will show up after all. Day 9, Match 2 - Jill Valentine vs. Fox McCloud (6) Jill: 45.9% - (11) Fox: 54.1% What happened?: This is a bit like Crash/Cecil in that it was somewhat debated but then ceased to be once the contest started. In the end this was a pretty standard result, Jill didn't look terrible, and stalled Fox at multiple points, and in the end the result was only slightly pushed up from what is expected from 2010. What could this mean?: Nintendo is still looking good, Resident Evil is still looking good, not much more to say. I feel pretty bad for Jill since she's still showing signs of strength here, but Fox is looking like a fairly safe bet to make it to the division finals.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/29/18 1:50:42 PM #94:	Day 9, Match 3 - Shovel Knight vs. Captain Toad (7) Shovel Knight: 47.53% - (14) Captain Toad: 52.47% What happened?: Shovel Knight broke my heart is what. This was one of the true tossups of the bracket between two very similar characters. We saw Toad before but Bowser and Mewtwo were in the match so it's totally useless. Additionally, Captain Toad is a much more likable variation than a generic Toad. Shovel Knight may as well be a low-end Nintendo character. This match did end up being very close, but it kept looking like it was going to get really close, then didn't. Also there was a bit of fraud at the start as Captain Toad was originally just listed as "Toad", which was a disgrace to the good Captain. What could this mean?: Not much, I don't think either of these characters are that weak but I don't think they're that strong either. In what was effectively Nintendo vs. Nintendo, the slightly more recognisable character (Captain Toad, not just "Toad" ALLEN) won out. I thought Shovel Knight might get preference, but I suppose not. Day 9, Match 4 - Waluigi vs. Aerith Gainsborough (2) Waluigi: 42.57% - (15) Aerith: 57.43% What happened?: This match was surprisingly debated, which is pretty telling and hilarious. There was a lot of concern that Waluigi might meme rally his way to victory, or that Aerith might just be that weak. The seeding here kind of speaks for itself - Aerith is a sign of FF7's slow weakening while Waluigi's is a sign of his meme status. In the end Waluigi kept it relatively close, but Aerith winning was never in question. What could this mean?: Despite defeating RallyFEAR, Aerith didn't look great. She went from near-elite to struggling with Waluigi. With that said, we don't know how much if at all the Waluigi memes have helped him other than that seed, so it's hard to say. Also this was the fourth match in the day where the underdog by seeding won, and the fourth which was under a 58% win. A close day. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911391940] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 9, Match 3 - Shovel Knight vs. Captain Toad (7) Shovel Knight: 47.53% - (14) Captain Toad: 52.47% What happened?: Shovel Knight broke my heart is what. This was one of the true tossups of the bracket between two very similar characters. We saw Toad before but Bowser and Mewtwo were in the match so it's totally useless. Additionally, Captain Toad is a much more likable variation than a generic Toad. Shovel Knight may as well be a low-end Nintendo character. This match did end up being very close, but it kept looking like it was going to get really close, then didn't. Also there was a bit of fraud at the start as Captain Toad was originally just listed as "Toad", which was a disgrace to the good Captain. What could this mean?: Not much, I don't think either of these characters are that weak but I don't think they're that strong either. In what was effectively Nintendo vs. Nintendo, the slightly more recognisable character (Captain Toad, not just "Toad" ALLEN) won out. I thought Shovel Knight might get preference, but I suppose not. Day 9, Match 4 - Waluigi vs. Aerith Gainsborough (2) Waluigi: 42.57% - (15) Aerith: 57.43% What happened?: This match was surprisingly debated, which is pretty telling and hilarious. There was a lot of concern that Waluigi might meme rally his way to victory, or that Aerith might just be that weak. The seeding here kind of speaks for itself - Aerith is a sign of FF7's slow weakening while Waluigi's is a sign of his meme status. In the end Waluigi kept it relatively close, but Aerith winning was never in question. What could this mean?: Despite defeating RallyFEAR, Aerith didn't look great. She went from near-elite to struggling with Waluigi. With that said, we don't know how much if at all the Waluigi memes have helped him other than that seed, so it's hard to say. Also this was the fourth match in the day where the underdog by seeding won, and the fourth which was under a 58% win. A close day.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LinkMarioSamus 10/29/18 2:35:14 PM #95:	LOL a day where all four matches were seeding upsets. Also the first day this contest where I got two matches wrong (had Aloy and Shovel Knight winning). --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil <cite>LinkMarioSamus posted [p:911394748] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>LOL a day where all four matches were seeding upsets. Also the first day this contest where I got two matches wrong (had Aloy and Shovel Knight winning).</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/30/18 8:27:37 PM #96:	Day 10, Match 1 - Geralt vs. Rosalina (1)Geralt: 56.03% - (16)* Rosalina: 43.97%* What happened?: This is definitely the most interesting 1/16 match, featuring an entirely new character versus the rare untested Nintendo character. Geralt also doesn't originate in a video game, one of very few characters in these to not do so (but not the only one, Dracula and Amaterasu).The Witcher (well, 3 anyway) is good on here, and Geralt is both a good representative of the game and a good character, but it's facing a very dominant Nintendo. Rosalina's likely to be no weakling, being very popular in the fandom and having been effectively promoted to the status of Mario main character. Some even took her to win in an upset. That didn't happen but it did look far closer than the typical one of these. Geralt started pretty badly as well but eventually managed a fair looking 56/44 win. What could this mean?: Rosalina is probably pretty good, we've seen all the signs from other Nintendo characters. I've seen Rosalina called the weakest Mario character on here and I don't buy it - I'm having a hard time seeing her losing to Captain Toad, Toad-ass Toad, or even Waluigi maybe. She is in all likelihood the strongest 16 seed, so this doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on Geralt. It wasn't necessarily a show of strength either though - Geralt should still squeak by Simon but might have a tough time, and then faces some serious competition from a certain other witchy contestant. Day 10, Match 2 - Ryu Hayabusa vs. Simon Belmont (8) Ryu H: 49.22% - (9) Simon: 50.78% What happened?: Put simply, Super Smash Bros., but more on that in the next section. Ryu H is hard to pin down in terms of exact strength but is at least pretty good, and has a huge pic factor bonus. Simon has been fodder line at absolute best. In any other contest this would have been open and shut. Masahiro Sakurai had other ideas however, and Simon's announcement for Smash made this a tough one. Simon got off to an early lead which he never actually gave up. The match never got further than around 700 votes and it hit that early, at about five hours in. After that it was a slow match of attrition, with Simon only winning by 467 votes. What could this mean?: This match was undeniably flipped by Smash. Without that great trailer giving Simon more relevance than he has had since 1991, This was coupled with the best design he's ever had, which was nicely featured in his match pic. Ryu H is probably a bit weaker than usual, as nobody cares about Ninja Gaiden anymore. I want to get The Messenger (from a great game nobody here has played) in here to see just how much being a cool ninja in match pics actually helps. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911484399] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 10, Match 1 - Geralt vs. Rosalina (1)Geralt: 56.03% - (16) Rosalina: 43.97% What happened?: This is definitely the most interesting 1/16 match, featuring an entirely new character versus the rare untested Nintendo character. Geralt also doesn't originate in a video game, one of very few characters in these to not do so (but not the only one, Dracula and Amaterasu).The Witcher (well, 3 anyway) is good on here, and Geralt is both a good representative of the game and a good character, but it's facing a very dominant Nintendo. Rosalina's likely to be no weakling, being very popular in the fandom and having been effectively promoted to the status of Mario main character. Some even took her to win in an upset. That didn't happen but it did look far closer than the typical one of these. Geralt started pretty badly as well but eventually managed a fair looking 56/44 win. What could this mean?: Rosalina is probably pretty good, we've seen all the signs from other Nintendo characters. I've seen Rosalina called the weakest Mario character on here and I don't buy it - I'm having a hard time seeing her losing to Captain Toad, Toad-ass Toad, or even Waluigi maybe. She is in all likelihood the strongest 16 seed, so this doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on Geralt. It wasn't necessarily a show of strength either though - Geralt should still squeak by Simon but might have a tough time, and then faces some serious competition from a certain other witchy contestant. Day 10, Match 2 - Ryu Hayabusa vs. Simon Belmont (8) Ryu H: 49.22% - (9) Simon: 50.78% What happened?: Put simply, Super Smash Bros., but more on that in the next section. Ryu H is hard to pin down in terms of exact strength but is at least pretty good, and has a huge pic factor bonus. Simon has been fodder line at absolute best. In any other contest this would have been open and shut. Masahiro Sakurai had other ideas however, and Simon's announcement for Smash made this a tough one. Simon got off to an early lead which he never actually gave up. The match never got further than around 700 votes and it hit that early, at about five hours in. After that it was a slow match of attrition, with Simon only winning by 467 votes. What could this mean?: This match was undeniably flipped by Smash. Without that great trailer giving Simon more relevance than he has had since 1991, This was coupled with the best design he's ever had, which was nicely featured in his match pic. Ryu H is probably a bit weaker than usual, as nobody cares about Ninja Gaiden anymore. I want to get The Messenger (from a great game nobody here has played) in here to see just how much being a cool ninja in match pics actually helps.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/30/18 8:52:23 PM #97:	Day 10, Match 3 - Sans vs. Pac-Man (5)Sans: 28.62% - (12) Pac-Man: 71.34% What happened?: This match was one with a lot of debate, leaving the board split down the middle. There were two arguments for Sans. First, RallyFEAR. Second, Undertale did have some natural strength, and he is a very memorable character from it. On the other hand, big contest-breaking rallies haven't turned up yet, and this is probably a better Pac-Man than we've seen thanks to Smash. Then the match starts and Pac-Man is instantly at 70%. The crazy thing though was how he kept building throughout the match. To top it all off this wasn't GameFAQs's doing entirely, as Sans actually did better with registered users. What could this mean?: This wasn't just rallies not turning up, Sans is just that weak. Additionally, this wasn't GameFAQs revenge voting - Sans did better with registered users. Pac-Man is probably pretty decent now, he's been okay for a while and should be at his strongest. Sans has to be bottom 10 here, and I am honestly surprised he is this weak even assuming zero rallies. This was the underperformance of the contest for me. Day 10, Match 4 - Bayonetta vs. Riku (4)Bayonetta: 64.4% - (13)* Riku: 35.6%* What happened?: And now for the overperformance of the round. Again, this was a highly debated match. Bayonetta didn't look great in 2013, Riku is a decent meat and potatoes high(ish) midcarder. Sora didn't look amazing, but he didn't look dreadful either. To Bayonetta's advantage, she has become effectively a Nintendo character since, with 2 being a Nintendo first party game, 1 and 2 coming to Switch this year, and her being in Smash. So, based on the 2013 stats, this would go to Riku with 62%. Then this match starts and Bayonetta destroys Riku after the board vote ends. Not only that, but she built her lead over time. What could this mean?: This has to be the biggest boost of the contest. Bayonetta flipped a projected 62% loss to win with over 64%. That is mad. She is looking like a serious division finalist here, perhaps even a division winner. I never thought I would say that. She alsoo didn't trend like a Nintendo character so that's interesting, though that might just be because of Riku. This was possibly the most exciting day yet overall, and I love the way this contest has gone. Anything could happen. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911485808] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Day 10, Match 3 - Sans vs. Pac-Man (5)Sans: 28.62% - (12) Pac-Man: 71.34% What happened?: This match was one with a lot of debate, leaving the board split down the middle. There were two arguments for Sans. First, RallyFEAR. Second, Undertale did have some natural strength, and he is a very memorable character from it. On the other hand, big contest-breaking rallies haven't turned up yet, and this is probably a better Pac-Man than we've seen thanks to Smash. Then the match starts and Pac-Man is instantly at 70%. The crazy thing though was how he kept building throughout the match. To top it all off this wasn't GameFAQs's doing entirely, as Sans actually did better with registered users. What could this mean?: This wasn't just rallies not turning up, Sans is just that weak. Additionally, this wasn't GameFAQs revenge voting - Sans did better with registered users. Pac-Man is probably pretty decent now, he's been okay for a while and should be at his strongest. Sans has to be bottom 10 here, and I am honestly surprised he is this weak even assuming zero rallies. This was the underperformance of the contest for me. Day 10, Match 4 - Bayonetta vs. Riku (4)Bayonetta: 64.4% - (13) Riku: 35.6% What happened?: And now for the overperformance of the round. Again, this was a highly debated match. Bayonetta didn't look great in 2013, Riku is a decent meat and potatoes high(ish) midcarder. Sora didn't look amazing, but he didn't look dreadful either. To Bayonetta's advantage, she has become effectively a Nintendo character since, with 2 being a Nintendo first party game, 1 and 2 coming to Switch this year, and her being in Smash. So, based on the 2013 stats, this would go to Riku with 62%. Then this match starts and Bayonetta destroys Riku after the board vote ends. Not only that, but she built her lead over time. What could this mean?: This has to be the biggest boost of the contest. Bayonetta flipped a projected 62% loss to win with over 64%. That is mad. She is looking like a serious division finalist here, perhaps even a division winner. I never thought I would say that. She alsoo didn't trend like a Nintendo character so that's interesting, though that might just be because of Riku. This was possibly the most exciting day yet overall, and I love the way this contest has gone. Anything could happen.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
#98	Post #98 was unavailable or deleted.
ZeldaTPLink 10/30/18 9:11:58 PM #99:	I really love this contest. Might come down as one of the best ones. <cite>ZeldaTPLink posted [p:911486927] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>I really love this contest. Might come down as one of the best ones.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
hombad46 10/30/18 9:13:46 PM #100:	ZeldaTPLink posted... I really love this contest. Might come down as one of the best ones. I dunno. With the low vote counts making most matches be decided in the first five minutes, its kinda boring so far. --- Let's give it everything we've got! IT'S.... PUNISHMENT TIME!!!! <cite>hombad46 posted [p:911487036] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote><cite>ZeldaTPLink posted...</cite> <quote>I really love this contest. Might come down as one of the best ones.</quote> I dunno. With the low vote counts making most matches be decided in the first five minutes, its kinda boring so far.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
LeonhartFour 10/30/18 9:14:22 PM #101:	Most matches in most contests are decided in the first five minutes. This isn't a new twist. It's just more apparent when you have four of them running at the same time. --- http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/080/145/638.png https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq <cite>LeonhartFour posted [p:911487083] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>Most matches in most contests are decided in the first five minutes. This isn't a new twist. It's just more apparent when you have four of them running at the same time.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Lightning Strikes 10/30/18 9:20:16 PM #102:	What Leon said, but also the matches being decided early isn't that big an issue if the results are surprising or interesting in some other way. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh BKSheikah <cite>Lightning Strikes posted [p:911487460] in ~Lightning... [t:77114884]...</cite> <quote>What Leon said, but also the matches being decided early isn't that big an issue if the results are surprising or interesting in some other way.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Board 8 > ~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~ (+) Yeah! (+)

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