Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1293

(+) Yeah! (+)

Heck Xenoblade is from the same series as Xenosaga.

Whose most popular character has been a midcarder since ever.

So calling it flavor of the month is a bit silly.

HaRRicH posted...

Vincent was always overrated within FF7, but gotta give credit where credit is due: he's its best optional character.

Yuffie <3. She is the most underrated FF7 character, and best optional character.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

xenoblade has been around for long enough that people have actually played it by now

The issue is that Xenoblade's re-release was on a very specific version of a 3DS that not mayn people have

i actually didn't know that, what the hell

thanks for the info, i guess maybe in the end nobody did play Xenoblade 1
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https://www.nintendo.com/games/detail/xenoblade-chronicles-3d-3ds

"New Nintendo 3DS systems only"
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I feel like Yuffie might actually be stronger than Vincent now. Looking like a character that hasn't stood the test of time while I feel Yuffie probably would.
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so is Alucard the strongest vampire now
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XIII_rocks posted...

Jesus christ, are you still making the same post after 15 years?

I laughed out loud at this, holy shit.
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What is this post? Guess I missed that.
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Safer_777 posted...

What is this post? Guess I missed that.

Do you have BT on ignore?

didn't Xenoblade Chronicles get a release on the Wii U virtual console? then again lol Wii U (and i own one)
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Yeah, I own it on Wii U (lol wii u)
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HaRRicH posted...

Ya know...using Vincent/Magus, Magus/Ganondorf 2003, and Vincent/Ganondorf 2006, today's match looks pretty normal!

zomg magus was never a fraud i want my money back
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So now that both Simon and Claire each have won a match, which characters have been in 4 or more character battles but never won a match? I know we got Cats and Cecil, but are there any others left? Kratos Aurion?

Edit: I forgot Guybrush, but that's because the voters votes like cows.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

I would have voted for Joker in a heartbeat if he got this
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Counterpoint



I would've voted Claire if she got that. Never actually seen a cute Claire before.
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I was reading posts from 2007 discussion topics

I think it's actually comforting that black turtle is still in this world being himself checking in on these things.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Zylothewolf posted...

So now that both Simon and Claire each have won a match, which characters have been in 4 or more character battles but never won a match? I know we got Cats and Cecil, but are there any others left? Kratos Aurion?

Edit: I forgot Guybrush, but that's because the voters votes like cows.

Ramza

Is Geno at four yet? It's a shame he might be getting a golden ticket for an upset one day too late.
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Characters which have appeared in 4 or more contests and have not won (or advanced)

Banjo
CATS
Cecil
Geno
Guybrush
Jak
Kratos Aurion
Miles Edgeworth
Neku
Ramza
Ridley
Sarah Kerrigan
Tom Nook
Wander
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Match XLIX: (1) Luigi vs. (16) Miles Edgeworth

Previous Contest Performance

Luigi - 2013
Round 1: 64.69% against Balthier Bunansa (23.07%) and Jade (12.24%)
Round 2: 42.77% against Big Boss (43.63%) and Ness (13.60%)

Miles Edgeworth - 2013
Round 1: 28.18% against Morrigan Aensland (48.19%) and Agent 47 (23.63%)

Analysis

There are quite a few characters that could win this division and Luigi gets first crack to show off what hes made of. Luigi was screwed by LFF during the last contest, ruining his Year of Luigi hype. Still with the way things have gone in this contest I would give Luigi a good chance at winning the division.

Edgeworth managed to look relatively respectable in 2013 and while hes still fodder he may not be as horrible as before. Phoenix Wright was able to perform at around expected so I dont expect much of a drop for Edgeworth. However, Luigi should be pushing for one of the largest blowouts of the contest here.

charmander6000s Bracket: Luigi > Miles Edgeworth

charmander6000s Prediction: Luigi wins, 76.38% - 23.62%




Match L: (8) Frog vs. (9) Monokuma

Previous Contest Performance

Frog - 2013
Round 1: 50.15% against Viewtiful Joe (25.65%) and Handsome Jack (24.20%)
Round 2: 27.74% against Cloud Strife (49.47%) and Lugia (22.79%)

Monokuma - N/A
N/A

Analysis

Monokuma has fallen under the boards radar in terms of being a rallyable character. Danganronpa was rallied during a contest hosted by the YouTube series Honest Game Trailers. Of course, those vote totals were almost ten times smaller than what we are getting here. As with Monika there may be a small push, but unless the right person rallies it will not be enough.

Like the other Chrono Trigger characters Frogs range would have been quite large, but sadly his bracket position is wasted. Unless the rally takes off Frog should have no issue at winning this match. Danganronpa has performed terribly in all polls it was featured, its just not a GameFAQs game.

charmander6000s Bracket: Frog > Monokuma

charmander6000s Prediction: Frog wins, 70.62% - 29.38%
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charmander6000 posted...

Characters which have appeared in 4 or more contests and have not win (or advanced)

Jak

Man, I can't believe the third strongest character in CBIX has never made it out of first round.
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Match LI: (5) Master Chief vs. (12) Goro Majima

Previous Contest Performance

Master Chief - 2013
Round 1: 34.84% against Yuna (40.49%) and Claire Redfield (24.66%)

Goro Majima - N/A
N/A

Analysis

I dont expect a lot out of Master Chief. In 2013, he was already underperforming and given how other western characters are performing and that Halo was utterly crushed during the 2015 games contest we are likely to see another drop. I know a lot of people are commenting on the Nintendo boost, but sometimes I feel its just that all the other series are getting weaker.

Despite all the doom and gloom, Master Chief should win this match. Yakuza is just not popular on this site. We all saw Kiryu easily lose to Bomberman and I expect Majima to perform even worse. Master Chief may have to contend with anti-votes, though I wonder if they will be anti-votes or if Master Chief will just be that weak.

charmander6000s Bracket: Master Chief > Goro Majima

charmander6000s Prediction: Master Chief wins, 68.52% - 31.48%




Match LII: (4) Nathan Drake vs. (13) Miles Tails Prower

Previous Contest Performance

Nathan Drake - 2013
Round 1: 41.80% against Pac-Man (38.80%) and Steve (19.40%)
Round 2: 34.07% against Pokemon Trainer Blue (47.14%) and Mr. Game & Watch (18.79%)

Miles Tails Prower - 2013
Round 1: 31.19% against Ezio Auditore da Firenze (45.51%) and Bomberman (23.30%)

Analysis

Im quite nervous about this match. Characters similar to Nathan Drake have been flopping left and right all contest. His performance in 2013 was okay, but nothing too special and definitely not enough to be considered a heavy favourite against Tails.

One theory that was mentioned a few years back was that Sonic characters underperform in multi-way polls. In 2010 they performed relatively better than in 2007 and 2008. Tails was able to get 40% against Kratos and while he is overrated in the stats due to Charizard, 40% against Kratos back then was quite impressive. The Sonic series has had a bit of a revival recently and we did see Knuckles performing well.

Im going against my bracket, but if Nathan avoids dropping in strength he could still win this.

charmander6000s Bracket: Nathan Drake > Miles Tails Prower

charmander6000s Prediction: Miles Tails Prower wins, 52.07% - 47.93%
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So here I am, thinking "how boring today matches are"
And then I realized I forgot to read the stats topic when the round began and..what the fuck
Just..what was going on in the first two hours? how is this even possible that Magus and Joker were so strong then just fell apart and never recovered?
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Persona seems very frontloaded. Look at the trends on Vivi vs. Narukami. I remember Persona 3/Dragon Quest VIII in 2015 started out close too but ended around 55-45.

CT is relatively weak in Europe and FFVII is strong so Magus was pretty much screwed when he never built any kind of lead at the beginning and was probably already behind before they started voting in notable numbers. I think people were expecting him to collapse much harder than this after he was behind during the board vote; seems a lot of people bracket-voted Vincent.
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Magus was never up by that much and hasn't fallen that far. Joker has the more substantial drop
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Zylothewolf posted...

So now that both Simon and Claire each have won a match, which characters have been in 4 or more character battles but never won a match? I know we got Cats and Cecil, but are there any others left? Kratos Aurion?

Edit: I forgot Guybrush, but that's because the voters votes like cows.

Ramza

Geno, Jak, Kerrigan, Neku, Wander, Tom Nook, and Banjo are the other ones that are on the list regardless of whether or not you count Rivalry Rumble.

If you do count Rivalry Rumble as a character battle, Conker and Professor Layton are also on the list.

If you don't count Rivalry Rumble as a character battle, then Miles Edgeworth and Ridley are on the list. Assuming Edgeworth loses to Luigi, both characters will be 0-5. Only one other character whose only win(s) came during Rivalry Rumble is even 0-2: Waluigi. Three others are 0-1, with seven who are 0-0; one of these seven has an opportunity to pick up a win this year, but was chosen to do so by only 1 out of every 32 Gurus.
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Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!
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I'm worried Tails is gonna win the power hour but then gradually lose as unregistered voters favor Nathan Drake.

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.

Sans?
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.

You've seen Velvet vs James Sunderland and yet still utter such lies??
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A bit late on this.

21 people fell off the Top 50. BetrayedTangy, GoldSlime35, NewerShadow, Dva69, TsunamiXXVIII, Aprosenf, 8Sunshine6, firefdr, mrlitigator, TheCodeisBosco, AxemRedRanger, redrocket, Xcarvenger, BK_Sheikah00, GTM, ZeldaTPLink, LittleFinger22, aphorism, Underleveled, VegetarianKefka and transience did not have Geralt, Simon, Pac-Man and Bayonetta winning.

11 people got one wrong and largely went up in the rankings. BradyFumbled, Captain_Sorzo, Wreath, iGenesis, art_of_the_kill, lordjers, darthsidius, NeoElfboy, OFool, foxhead84 and Iamamongyou also did not have Geralt, Simon, Pac-Man and Bayonetta winning.

15 people scored half points and survived. SamusOverCloud, tennisboy213, haloiscoolisbak, Samurai7, TAFKAHurricane, MasterMoltar, Vegink, Ulti69, FlyingForever, hylianknight3, Claude_Rena, WhiteLens, PSI_NESS, scott182000 and half_silver28 only got 2 matches right.

Congrats to the three people on the Top 50 who got a perfect score. Zylothewolf, Bolto4 and Polycosm had all of Geralt, Simon, Pac-Man and Bayonetta winning.
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Ok doing the math
Geno has a chance to be confirmed for Smash during his match
Can this pull him anywhere?
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.

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swirIdude posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.

You've seen Velvet vs James Sunderland and yet still utter such lies??

Does the world really need more Velvet vs. James Sunderland matches?
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You could nominate Max Payne again and make a bunch of topics after nominations close talking about how a rematch would go. That might do the trick!
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AxemRedRanger posted...

You could nominate Max Payne again and make a bunch of topics after nominations close talking about how a rematch would go. That might do the trick!

I feel like Guybrush taking the silver against Max in the three ways is good enough.
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swirIdude posted...

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

There isn't a damn thing you could do to get Guybrush a win in a singles match.

You've seen Velvet vs James Sunderland and yet still utter such lies??

You would really take neither of them over Guy?
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You know what fuck.

I'd take Jade Curtis over Guybrush.
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@Nanis23 True that. Because of work and sleep I get to watch the matches after around 15 hours that they have started. So a lot of reading on stats topics. And I was suprised to see that both Magus and Joker were winning for a while. Damn!
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Hbthebattle posted...

Ok doing the math
Geno has a chance to be confirmed for Smash during his match
Can this pull him anywhere?

He'll probably be too far gone for it to make a difference, since he's up against a near-elite in Tifa. He'd be better off having the announcement, and then start the match later in the day.
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Geno could have been announced for Smash at literally any point and would've still lost that match easily.
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the Direct would have to end with Sakurai saying "please visit double-u double-u double-u dot game fah-kwahs dot com and vote for Geno" and then doing a deep bow for the Direct to have any impact on the match at all
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everyone's wondering what would happen if geno got confirmed

but what would happen to the match if Tifa was confirmed
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snake_5036 posted...

everyone's wondering what would happen if geno got confirmed

but what would happen to the match if Tifa was confirmed

will she get a breast reduction like how snake got an ass reduction
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snake_5036 posted...

everyone's wondering what would happen if geno got confirmed

but what would happen to the match if Tifa was confirmed

She'd still be a horrible character?
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ZenOfThunder posted...

will she get a breast reduction like how snake got an ass reduction

she'll get the samus treatment: her breasts are smaller, but now her muscles are very toned
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no one rushes to GameFAQs anymore after an announcement, at least no one that isn't already here.
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Safer_777 posted...

Sad to see c haracters that have taken part in 5 contests and never had a win! We should make the bracket next time so all these characters get at least a win!

Jak would've gotten his in 2013 if the rally hadn't happened.

A lot of those characters are extremely weak, though, and are unlikely to get it without extreme luck in the bracket placement.

Ridley is the real odd one out there. Edgeworth, Cecil, and Ramza look like they might have a chance with a good draw, but Ridley has just had the misfortune to almost always draw something strong in Round 1.

Spring 2005: 42.35% on Diablo in Round 1 as the higher seed. Diablo winds up in the Final Four, however, and Ridley finishes 10th in the X-Stats
2007: Gets in a fourway with Leon Kennedy, Vivi, and Spyro. Easily beats out Spyro but finishes third behind Leon and Vivi.
2010: Gets only enough nominations to reach vote-ins, and a surprisingly high number of characters with legitimate strength fell to the vote-ins; Ridley finishes fourth in his vote-in (with the top two finishers in his vote-in both winding up reaching Round 3), which is enough to get him into the bracket, but as a 16-seed. That means an immediate date with a Noble Niner, and he performed better than expected but most people just chalked it up to Cloud being an anti-vote magnet.
2013: 43.23% of the vote in a threeway, which would be more than enough to win a lot of matches. Unfortunately for Ridley, it's not even close to first place (Zidane Tribal) as the third-place finisher barely broke 5% and was in fact one of the characters chosen for the "Worst of the Worst" bonus match to fill the 12 hours between the end of Round 1 and the beginning of Round 2.
2018: Again he sets a new high in percentage, getting 43.34% in a 1v1 with Big Boss.

The only one that seems even remotely disappointing is the Diablo loss, and even that isn't horrible because Blizzard didn't really start sucking in contests until a few years after that match. Ridley definitely needs to find an opponent that's not from a major franchise; his last four losses are MGS, FF, FF, and RE/FF.
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has Navi ever been in a contest?
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