Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1293

(+) Yeah! (+)

TheCodeisBosco posted...

JESUS CHRIST, LUIGI, HE'S ALREADY DEAD!

Also, is it just me or is Monokuma doing better than anticipated?

Spread betting had this at 66%, so Frog could drop a bit and still meet that.
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I think this is more Drake falling off a cliff than Tails boosting. Characters like Tails aren't really going to move too much while characters like Drake are absolutely willing to tank.
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BetrayedTangy posted...

Wow these past few days have been killing my bracket. I cant wait until Dedede beats Revolver Ocelot tomorrow

Picked that one.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

I think this is more Drake falling off a cliff than Tails boosting. Characters like Tails aren't really going to move too much while characters like Drake are absolutely willing to tank.

I dunno, Sonic Mania was a big hit.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

I think this is more Drake falling off a cliff than Tails boosting. Characters like Tails aren't really going to move too much while characters like Drake are absolutely willing to tank.

Knuckles looked really good in his match too. I'm guessing it's both.
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Nathan Drake, you stink!
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truly i wouldn't be surprised if Uncharted 4 did more to boost Crash than Nathan Drake

that game and uncharted 3 don't feel like they were even a quarter as big as Uncharted 2 was
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how would it boost Crash?
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im317 posted...

how would it boost Crash?

there's a part in that game where you play a level of Crash 1

when the news of that came out (this was before the N. Sane Trilogy got announced too) i remember it being on a lot of places
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Tails to round 3 looking one of my better non cookie picks
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Hbthebattle posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I think this is more Drake falling off a cliff than Tails boosting. Characters like Tails aren't really going to move too much while characters like Drake are absolutely willing to tank.

I dunno, Sonic Mania was a big hit.

Also, the site constantly trending towards popular 90s stuff is only going to help Sonic. I think it's a big part of why Crash is on an upswing too, though SNES seems to be the primary beneficiary.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

14 people fell off the Top 50. TAFKAHurricane, lordloki12, BadDecisions, Panthera, htaeD, Kufuzi, GlueGun18, Tjian, SonicLink15, WhiteLens, Porygon, KeepinItFresh, devilsbane_code and half_silver28 did not have Auron, Vincent, Sub-Zero and Claire winning.

17 people got one match wrong and survived. BradyFumbled, tennisboy213, Bolto4, Polycosm, iGenesis, TheRock1525, Samurai7, bejma, MasterMoltar, Exaspenite, Ulti69, huntmaster17, NightTundra, NeoElfboy, OFool, Ngamer64 and StartTheMachine also did not have Auron, Vincent, Sub-Zero and Claire winning.

First time being in the top 50 since almost finishing 5th in the first games contest (had FF7 winning).
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Almost 80% update for Luigi... I hope Edgeworth can avoid the tripling in the end.

Wow, Magus was the slight favorite over Vincent....?

About Ren/Joker... I previously complained about Ren's name being changed to Joker on the front page. But I've changed my mind on this... I was lucky that SBAllen didn't use that name during bracket predictions, or else I would have picked Joker to win! This off-sets my missing Shovel Knight/Captain Toad due to the name used for the character. I no longer have a right to complain.

As for Monokuma, just about any fodder that doesn't look like a generic human would probably avoid a tripling from a low mid-carder like Frog.
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At least had my time to shine with my first time ever on the leaderboard. Had Drake winning today as well

OFool posted...

Lol, who on GameFAQs has played video games this decade?

The whole notion of GameFAQs no longer playing video games anymore is false based on the history of these polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7214-

The average number of hours played per week has remained fairly similar over the course of the poll's lifetime, except for the 2003 poll which had a much higher average (but the 2003 poll was with a far different site demographic back then).

Average hours played per week in each of those polls since 2009:

10/7/2009 - 20.47
3/1/2011 - 21.67
3/2/2014 - 21.98
4/9/2016 - 20.92
9/25/2018 - 21.48

There's just not much movement there, if any at all. In fact, it's probably within the range of random variation.

What has changed since 2009 is the rise of Steam and indie games, so there's a lot more games out there to play. This means it'll be tougher for a single game to be widely played among the site's userbase.
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As things settle in, let's take a second to appreciate Frog and Master Chief both on the front page for the first time since 2004. One of the all time classics.
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Haste_2 posted...

Wow, Magus was the slight favorite over Vincent....?

People actually took his weak performance in 2013 seriously. It was a miracle that the match was as close as it was.

LusterSoldier posted...

OFool posted...

Lol, who on GameFAQs has played video games this decade?

The whole notion of GameFAQs no longer playing video games anymore is false based on the history of these polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7214-

The average number of hours played per week has remained fairly similar over the course of the poll's lifetime, except for the 2003 poll which had a much higher average (but the 2003 poll was with a far different site demographic back then).

Average hours played per week in each of those polls since 2009:

10/7/2009 - 20.47
3/1/2011 - 21.67
3/2/2014 - 21.98
4/9/2016 - 20.92
9/25/2018 - 21.48

There's just not much movement there, if any at all. In fact, it's probably within the range of random variation.

What has changed since 2009 is the rise of Steam and indie games, so there's a lot more games out there to play. This means it'll be tougher for a single game to be widely played among the site's userbase.

Luster when you respond to nonsense with this analytical fluff it doesnt help
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

As things settle in, let's take a second to appreciate Frog and Master Chief both on the front page for the first time since 2004. One of the all time classics.

Proud to say I was one of the voters for Frog that day. Though if I had voted for chief things would have been even closer.

It's a darn shame Frog doesn't have a shot in hell in making it over Luigi. A rematch would be amazing.

I still think Chief beats Tails next round, but a Luigi vs Tails match would be fun to watch if not.

As fun as the rematch with frog/chief would be, frog would probably get a near 60/40 him now, if not worse, great match back in the day though.

But wow Drake, I was expecting Tails to win after seeing all the previous results and trends, but wow, Drake is getting killed even worse then I could of had predicted, I think Tails is going to round 3 on this performance, I don't see how Chief does that much better on him.

I took Tails to Round 3 and I was always more worried about Drake than Chief

I thought whoever wins here gets a free pass to Round 3. I don't think I'd take Chief over even Bomberman, let alone Tails. Halo has never been more irrelevant on this site.
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Ranticoot posted...

I took Tails to Round 3 and I was always more worried about Drake than Chief

I thought whoever wins here gets a free pass to Round 3. I don't think I'd take Chief over even Bomberman, let alone Tails. Halo has never been more irrelevant on this site.

Same
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Last night, Massachusetts/New Jersey/New York all voted for Magus. Which means that Illinois is now the only state remaining with a perfect voting record. Vincent was also the first winning character to win less than half of the 50 states. He still barely won the US vote, though (50.19% vs 51.89% overall).
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I counted on Drake tanking (But yet I never doubted Sully to win his match LOL) but was kinda hoping Tails would look weak going against the Chief. Oops.
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Also, I know old stats from 10 yrs ago don't mean jack but Drake did lose to CATS. lol
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How many people actually played Uncharted before Uncharted 2 got all that hype? How did he even make it that year?
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CasanovaZelos posted...

How many people actually played Uncharted before Uncharted 2 got all that hype? How did he even make it that year?

It was the first 128 character contest, so he had some room to maneuver in nomations. Nathan Hale also made it, and hasn't been seen since. And I'm not refering to the contest. I don't think anyone has thought of Nathan Hale since 2008.
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

CasanovaZelos posted...

How many people actually played Uncharted before Uncharted 2 got all that hype? How did he even make it that year?

It was the first 128 character contest, so he had some room to maneuver in nomations. Nathan Hale also made it, and hasn't been seen since. And I'm not refering to the contest. I don't think anyone has thought of Nathan Hale since 2008.

Drake was 2008, Hale was 2007. The Nathans that could only really beat Jade Curtis...
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

2010: Gets only enough nominations to reach vote-ins, and a surprisingly high number of characters with legitimate strength fell to the vote-ins; Ridley finishes fourth in his vote-in (with the top two finishers in his vote-in both winding up reaching Round 3), which is enough to get him into the bracket, but as a 16-seed. That means an immediate date with a Noble Niner, and he performed better than expected but most people just chalked it up to Cloud being an anti-vote magnet.

That's what he gets for so heavily affecting Doc Louis in that vote-in.
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LusterSoldier posted...

OFool posted...

Lol, who on GameFAQs has played video games this decade?

The whole notion of GameFAQs no longer playing video games anymore is false based on the history of these polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7214-

The average number of hours played per week has remained fairly similar over the course of the poll's lifetime, except for the 2003 poll which had a much higher average (but the 2003 poll was with a far different site demographic back then).

Average hours played per week in each of those polls since 2009:

10/7/2009 - 20.47
3/1/2011 - 21.67
3/2/2014 - 21.98
4/9/2016 - 20.92
9/25/2018 - 21.48

There's just not much movement there, if any at all. In fact, it's probably within the range of random variation.

What has changed since 2009 is the rise of Steam and indie games, so there's a lot more games out there to play. This means it'll be tougher for a single game to be widely played among the site's userbase.

required reading for everyone
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LusterSoldier posted...

OFool posted...

Lol, who on GameFAQs has played video games this decade?

The whole notion of GameFAQs no longer playing video games anymore is false based on the history of these polls:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7214-

The average number of hours played per week has remained fairly similar over the course of the poll's lifetime, except for the 2003 poll which had a much higher average (but the 2003 poll was with a far different site demographic back then).

Average hours played per week in each of those polls since 2009:

10/7/2009 - 20.47
3/1/2011 - 21.67
3/2/2014 - 21.98
4/9/2016 - 20.92
9/25/2018 - 21.48

There's just not much movement there, if any at all. In fact, it's probably within the range of random variation.

What has changed since 2009 is the rise of Steam and indie games, so there's a lot more games out there to play. This means it'll be tougher for a single game to be widely played among the site's userbase.

Doesn't really prove anything unless you have data from 2000-2007 to compare. 20 hours a week seems low for what I imagine the average GameFAQs user to play. I figure I'm in the area of 15 hours myself.
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CasanovaZelos posted...

How many people actually played Uncharted before Uncharted 2 got all that hype? How did he even make it that year?

Uncharted was pretty much the first must-play PS3 exclusive, and it had just come out.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2977-got-ps3
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7131-got-xbox-one

21.39% of Gamefaqs owned a PS3 at the time of that first Drake match. For comparison, more people on the site now own an Xbox One (27.15%).
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Division 6, Round 1

Auron vs. Lucina
Registered Vote Result:
Auron - 6390 (65.37%)
Lucina - 3385 (34.63%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Auron - 7352 (65.57%)
Lucina - 3860 (34.43%)

Magus vs. Vincent Valentine
Registered Vote Result:
Magus - 4744 (48.51%)
Vincent Valentine - 5035 (51.49%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Magus - 5314 (47.40%)
Vincent Valentine - 5898 (52.60%)

Shulk vs. Sub-Zero
Registered Vote Result:
Shulk - 3700 (37.84%)
Sub-Zero - 6078 (62.16%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Shulk - 4117 (36.72%)
Sub-Zero - 7095 (63.28%)

Ren Amamiya / Joker vs. Claire Redfield
Registered Vote Result:
Ren Amamiya / Joker - 4501 (46.06%)
Claire Redfield - 5272 (53.94%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Ren Amamiya / Joker - 5276 (47.06%)
Claire Redfield - 5936 (52.94%)

Very little difference on Auron/Lucina. I guess Lucina probably gets more of her strength from Fire Emblem (despite now being in Smash) and it would seem like Fire Emblem is lower on the Nintendo hierarchy when it comes to registered user voting. Marth and Ike are different in that they most likely get more strength from Smash and benefit from Smash being fairly strong among registered users.

Magus only does about 1% better among registered users, which was a bit surprising. It was previously known from Allen's past stats that CT is stronger among unregistered users in the CT/Melee match (after factoring out the rallies) and FFVII is a similar game in that regard, so the difference between these 2 characters really seems to come down to the anti-votes that Vincent receives from registered users.

Extra info - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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so nathan drake sucks huh

goddamn it

I thought I had Tails in my main bracket. =(
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So Tails is probably going to get to Round 3 when Knuckles has never been there huh
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I think the thing with Tails is he just had bad bracket placement through most of his history and wasnt too terrible
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AxemRedRanger posted...

So Tails is probably going to get to Round 3 when Knuckles has never been there huh

He does not know the way
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I called the Tails upset! The rest of my bracket is a shitshow but who cares? Tonight, I am a genius!
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I initially picked Tails but switched to Drake. Damn.
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What was Jokers prediction percent?

Man I got every match last division right too
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swordz9 posted...

What was Jokers prediction percent?

51.34%

He was a slight favorite overall.
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swirIdude posted...

I called the Tails upset! The rest of my bracket is a shitshow but who cares? Tonight, I am a genius!

^
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Glad to see Tails win -- to hell with my bracket. I figured Uncharted 4 was enough to seal the deal for Drake. Nope!

Today is a fine number for Frog, but I'm cautious to call it a fine performance until we see him next round against Luigi. Luigi/Frog and Auron/Vincent will be our best indications of how CT-characters are doing now until Crono shows up.
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UItimaterializer posted...

swirIdude posted...

I called the Tails upset! The rest of my bracket is a shitshow but who cares? Tonight, I am a genius!

^

Whoa, Tails was an upset here? I had no idea, I took him without thinking. Drake is turbofodder, and Sonic team is hot off of Sonic Mania
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Drake did decently in 2013. Not really turbofodderish at all.

The only reason this looks like a stomp is because stuff from the last 10 years or so seems to have fallen off a cliff.
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Vincent's bad performance yestereday makes the Mewtwo is a fraud theory very likely. No more can we excuse Mewtwo's bad performance on Phoenix Wright by saying he dominated a near-elite named Vincent! This also ruins my pre-contest theory that Mewtwo > Pikachu >> Charizard. Apparently I got the Pikachu >> Charizard part right, but not the other part, it seems.

Now... these calculations are very, VERY rough... take everything with a grain of salt.

Extrapolating through Sonic, Mewtwo's 2013 x-stat is 45.63%. Extrapolating through Phoenix Wright, Mewtwo's x-stat is 34.09%. That suggests that Mewtwo's true strength could be worth as little as 37.35% on the fraud version. Granted, Sonic's x-stat is probably too high.

How does Charizard as a fraud compare? He's estimated to be at 34.22% if equal to Zelda. Let's assume Terra gets 40% on Kirby in 2013. Terra's new x-stat is 28.48. This suggests Charizard gets 58.38% on Terra. So basically, Charizard 2018 gets 44% on Charizard 2013. Granted, Terra may have increased. It's possible Charizard may not be much of a fraud at all.

Is Pikachu a fraud? 2013 x-stats suggests Pikachu gets 64.08% on Scorpion. He got 66%. Yeah, so Pikachu being a fraud seems pretty unlikely, especially with Sub-Zero's impressive score on Shulk.
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